POLICY BRIEF ON CONFLICTS IN

ETHIOPIA, AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR

HORN OF AFRICA
August, 2023

East African Institute for Peace & Adani Tower, 4th floor, A402, Mogadishu, www.eafricaninstitute.org
Governance Somalia info@eafricaninstitute.org
 Background

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Policy brief on “The Second Wave of Conflict in Ethiopia, and what it

means for the HOA.

On August 6th, the East African Institute for Peace and Governance hosted a Twitter
Space focusing on the ongoing crisis in Ethiopia, particularly within the Amhara
region. The event garnered significant attention, drawing participants from a wide
array of sectors within the community. These participants included academics,
politicians, civil society members, students, and intellectuals. Notably, two prominent figures
renowned for their extensive insights on the subject matter took center stage as keynote speakers:
Professor Hassan Keynan, a retired UN Official and Senior Analyst specializing in the dynamics
of the Horn of Africa, and Professor Faisal Roble, whose profound understanding of the region is
deeply rooted.

The event's timeliness and relevance were evident in its impressive turnout, with over 300
individuals actively participating in the Twitter Space. The discussions and deliberations
that unfolded provided a platform for diverse perspectives and a comprehensive
exploration of the multifaceted crisis.

While the participants posed a multitude of questions to the guest speakers, given the
constraints of time and the focus of the topic, we primarily addressed the following
inquiries:
 What has triggered this cycle of war in Ethiopia?" was undoubtedly the lingering
question on everyone's minds. Fortunately, the keynote speakers provided
elaborate insights, and intriguingly, their responses were notably aligned. Both

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 speakers concurred that the current crisis represents both a sequel and a prequel
to the Tigray war that ignited in November 2020, further exacerbated by internal
communal conflicts within the country.
Delving deeper, the Tigray conflict, spanning a duration of two years, holds a
pivotal role. It was highlighted that Amhara played a significant role in fueling the
war against Tigray, driven by their political interests. Specifically, the contentious
aim of reclaiming control over the disputed territories of Raya and Wilkeite
emerged as a driving force behind Amhara's involvement in the conflict against
Tigray. This nuanced perspective illuminated the intricate connections between the
Tigray war and the ongoing crisis in Ethiopia, shedding light on the complex web
of motivations and historical context intertwining the two events.
 The declaration of a "state of emergency" by Prime Minister Abiy raised concerns
regarding a potential full-scale confrontation between the Ethiopian National
Defense Forces (ENDF) and the Amhara militias, including the Fano group. In
addressing this pressing question, both keynote speakers echoed a similar
sentiment. They indicated that this declaration could indeed set the stage for an
all-encompassing conflict between the ENDF and the combined forces of the
Amhara region, including the formidable "FANO" group. Notably, the Fano group
has already secured control over certain areas and asserted their victory over the
ENDF. As the discussion unfolded, participants actively engaged and posed a
pertinent question: How sustainable is the initial success achieved by the Amhara
militants? The query sought to discern the longevity of the Amhara forces' early
victories. This inquiry underlines the pivotal aspect of durability and the complex
dynamics that can shape the course of the ongoing struggle. The participants'
intervention showcased a collective curiosity about the sustainability of the
conflict's current trajectory, thereby encapsulating the prevailing uncertainty
surrounding the situation.
 The far-reaching impact of these recurrent conflicts on the Horn of Africa (HOA)
region, particularly in terms of security, emerged as an intriguing point of
discussion. The interrelated nature of the region, both geographically and
geopolitically, underscores the substantial influence these conflicts exert on one
another. The deliberations revealed that the conflicts in Ethiopia bear the potential
to trigger cascading repercussions across the region. Indeed, the prevailing view
among both keynote speakers and the engaged audience was unanimous: if the
Ethiopian conflict persists, it has the potential to give rise to various pressing
issues. These could encompass significant waves of displacement, heightened
instability, increased criminal activities, and a host of other undesirable
consequences. Recognizing the interconnectedness of the region, the discussions
emphasized that the ongoing conflict constitutes an imminent and tangible threat
to the broader East African region. This collective agreement underscores the

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 urgency of addressing the crisis in Ethiopia not only for the country itself but also
for the stability and well-being of its neighboring nations within the Horn of Africa

 Ethiopia's significant role as a troop-contributor to Somalia through the

ATMIS/AMISOM peacekeeping efforts, with over 4,000 Ethiopian forces on the
ground, has raised an important concern: if internal strife engulfs Ethiopia, how
would it impact Somalia's fight against Al-Shabaab? Notably, the responses from
both keynote speakers and participants varied, yet a common thread emerged: an
all-encompassing conflict within Ethiopia might not necessarily impede Somalia's
ongoing efforts against Al-Shabaab. The discussions unveiled diverse
perspectives on this matter. While the responses differed, a consensus was
reached that the internal turmoil within Ethiopia would likely not halt Somalia's
independent progress in countering the Al-Shabaab threat. The rationale behind
this stance rests on the fact that Somalia maintains its own national army,
supported by fellow African troop-contributors. This signifies that Somalia's
engagement in the fight against Al-Shabaab is underpinned by its internal
resources and collective regional efforts. While the direct impact of Ethiopia's
internal conflict on Somalia's security landscape remains a topic of conjecture, the
discussions highlighted the resilience of Somalia's commitment to combating
extremism and terrorism, irrespective of developments in its neighboring country.
 The roles of neighboring countries within the Horn of Africa in mitigating the
recurring conflicts in Ethiopia were brought into focus. Both the African Union (AU)
and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) bear a crucial
responsibility in addressing and intervening in these prolonged conflicts within
Ethiopia. The discussions acknowledged that Addis Ababa, serving as the political
capital of Africa and the headquarters of the African Union, holds a unique
significance. Consequently, the repercussions of the ongoing conflicts extend
beyond the borders of Ethiopia, underscoring their regional and continental
implications. The conversations underscored the pivotal role that both the AU and
IGAD must play in spearheading efforts to de-escalate the conflicts. Given their
mandates and established mechanisms for conflict resolution, these institutions
are well-placed to initiate dialogues, facilitate negotiations, and promote
sustainable solutions. The discussions recognized that the protracted nature of the
conflicts demands a concerted and collaborative approach from neighboring
countries and regional bodies, reflecting a collective commitment to stability,
peace, and prosperity within the Horn of Africa and beyond
 The disputed Al-fashaqa region, situated between Sudan and the Amhara region,
raises concerns about the potential for this porous border to become a conduit for
arms trafficking between the warring parties. With both Sudan and Ethiopia
undergoing fragile transitions and internal conflicts, the likelihood of infiltration from

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 both sides is significant. This situation could indeed transform the intractable
border area into a thriving gun market, facilitating the import of weapons and
ammunition for the warring factions. Such a scenario could exacerbate the conflicts
and contribute to their prolongation, as access to arms might intensify the
hostilities.
 Moving on to the role of Eritrea in the conflict, the country has garnered a notorious
reputation due to its involvement in the recurring conflicts. Since gaining
independence from Ethiopia in 1993, Eritrea has harbored deep-seated animosity
towards Ethiopia, particularly directed at the Tigray region and the EPRDF coalition
party. Eritrea enthusiastically supported Prime Minister Abiy's direct military
engagement against Tigray, with President Afwerki actively assisting Abiy's
offensive strategy. However, the dynamics took a dramatic turn with the signing of
the "Pretoria Agreement" between Abiy's administration and Tigray leaders in
November 2022. This agreement aimed at ceasing hostilities and establishing
lasting peace. Following the agreement, the relationship between Afwerki and Abiy
deteriorated significantly. Speculation has emerged that Afwerki could potentially
lend assistance to the Amhara forces in their conflict against the ENDF. This
underscores the complex and evolving nature of alliances and motivations within
the region, adding another layer of complexity to an already intricate conflict
landscape.