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  • E-GAP - Session V - Jane Hupe - Carbon Markets - Final

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    Ami Kar
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    The document discusses ICAO's E-GAP program, which aims to reduce emissions from international aviation through carbon offsetting. It presents forecasts showing increasing CO2 emissions from international flights between 2010-2040 under less and more optimistic scenarios. The text then examines potential sources for offsets, including carbon markets and credits. Finally, it analyzes the costs of offsetting international aviation's emissions relative to the industry's projected revenue under different carbon price assumptions. The costs are estimated to range from 0.2-1.8% of revenue depending on the year and price considered.

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    E-GAP_Session V_Jane Hupe.Carbon Markets.final

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    The document discusses ICAO's E-GAP program, which aims to reduce emissions from international aviation through carbon offsetting. It presents forecasts showing increasing CO2 emissions from international flights between 2010-2040 under less and more optimistic scenarios. The text then examines potential sources for offsets, including carbon markets and credits. Finally, it analyzes the costs of offsetting international aviation's emissions relative to the industry's projected revenue under different carbon price assumptions. The costs are estimated to range from 0.2-1.8% of revenue depending on the year and price considered.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    Download as pdf or txt
    17 views7 pages

    E-GAP - Session V - Jane Hupe - Carbon Markets - Final

    Uploaded by

    Ami Kar
    The document discusses ICAO's E-GAP program, which aims to reduce emissions from international aviation through carbon offsetting. It presents forecasts showing increasing CO2 emissions from international flights between 2010-2040 under less and more optimistic scenarios. The text then examines potential sources for offsets, including carbon markets and credits. Finally, it analyzes the costs of offsetting international aviation's emissions relative to the industry's projected revenue under different carbon price assumptions. The costs are estimated to range from 0.2-1.8% of revenue depending on the year and price considered.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
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    of 7

    E-GAP

    ICAO Global Aviation Partnerships on


    Emissions Reductions (E-GAP)
    Multiplying Environmental Action

    ICAO Global Aviation Partnerships on Emissions Reductions (E-GAP) Seminar


    ICAO Headquarters, Montréal, 16 to 17 September 2015 ENV2015
    E-GAP

    Carbon Markets
    • Raised during regional consultation meetings
    on the global MBM
    • Issues ranged from understanding supply,
    demand and price to eligibility of units
    • International aviation role in the carbon
    market
    • Linking UN mechanisms and efforts

    ICAO Global Aviation Partnerships on Emissions Reductions (E-GAP) Seminar


    ICAO Headquarters, Montréal, 16 to 17 September 2015 ENV2015
    E-GAP
    International aviation CO2 emissions between 2010 - 2040

    GMBM Reference Years


    Modeling Reference Year (2010)

    2018-2020
    Less Optimistic
    Scenario

    Optimistic
    Scenario

    Quantity of CO2
    Emissions to Offset
    without
    adjustments

    International Aviation CO2 Emissions


    2010 2018-2020 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
    (in Million tonnes)
    Less Optimistic Scenario 438 671 704 879 1,048 1,270 1,491
    Optimistic Scenario 438 656 686 828 945 1,101 1,249

    ICAO Global Aviation Partnerships on Emissions Reductions (E-GAP) Seminar


    ICAO Headquarters, Montréal, 16 to 17 September 2015 ENV2015
    E-GAP
    Final quantity to offset after adjustments with total CO2
    emissions to provide context

    Final Quantity to Offset after adjustments


    2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
    (in Million tonnes of CO2 emissions)
    Less Optimistic Scenario - 174 376 596 816
    Optimistic Scenario - 142 288 443 590

    ICAO Global Aviation Partnerships on Emissions Reductions (E-GAP) Seminar


    ICAO Headquarters, Montréal, 16 to 17 September 2015 ENV2015
    E-GAP
    Sources for international aviation to address demand to
    offset emissions
    • Forecasts beyond 2020 are challenging
    Allowances - ETS
    – National/region cap and trade systems
    – Offset credits affiliated with ETS
    • Offset Credits
    – compliance markets (Kyoto Protocol, REDD+)
    – voluntary (VCS, Gold Standard)

    ICAO Global Aviation Partnerships on Emissions Reductions (E-GAP) Seminar


    ICAO Headquarters, Montréal, 16 to 17 September 2015 ENV2015
    E-GAP
    • Assumptions on unit carbon price are driving significant uncertainty in
    total cost impacts of offsetting CO2 emissions from international aviation.

    IEA WEO 2013 carbon


    price paths reflect
    allowance prices only.

    The alternative low


    carbon price path takes
    into account a larger pool
    of emissions units with
    lower abatement costs.

    Carbon Price * * * * * *
    Assumptions:
    IEA High 20 $/tonne 33 $/tonne 40 $/tonne
    IEA Low 8 $/tonne 15 $/tonne 20 $/tonne
    Alternative Low 6 $/tonne 10 $/tonne 12 $/tonne * New case with alternative low carbon price

    ICAO Global Aviation Partnerships on Emissions Reductions (E-GAP) Seminar


    ICAO Headquarters, Montréal, 16 to 17 September 2015 ENV2015
    E-GAP

    Costs to address emissions relative to revenue (USD billion)


    2025 2030 2035

    Total air transport


    864 1090 1330
    revenue (ICAO
    forecast)

    Cost with high CO2 price


    0.7% 1.1% 1.8%

    Cost with medium CO2 price


    0.3% 0.5% 0.9%

    Cost with low CO2 price


    0.2% 0.3% 0.5%

    ICAO Global Aviation Partnerships on Emissions Reductions (E-GAP) Seminar


    ICAO Headquarters, Montréal, 16 to 17 September 2015 ENV2015

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