Drinking Milk Products in Estonia

Euromonitor International
October 2021

This sample report is for illustration

purposes only.
Some content and data have been
changed.

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DRINKING MILK PRODUCTS IN ESTONIA Passport i

LIST OF CONTENTS AND TABLES

Drinking Milk Products in Estonia - Category Analysis ................................................................. 1
KEY DATA FINDINGS.................................................................................................................. 1
2021 DEVELOPMENTS ............................................................................................................... 1
Boost for lactose-free or fortified drinking milk products thanks to increased focus on health
and wellness ............................................................................................................................. 1
Despite boost from stockpiling, shelf stable milk remains A niche ............................................ 1
Tere will remain clear leader despite restructuring challenges ................................................. 2
PROSPECTS AND OPPORTUNITIES......................................................................................... 2
Demand for milk alternatives is expected to grow, due to increasing health awareness .......... 2
Fresh milk is expected to continue to dominate into the forecast period................................... 2
Rising popularity of organic products set to boost average unit prices ..................................... 2
CATEGORY DATA ....................................................................................................................... 3
Table 1 Sales of Drinking Milk Products by Category: Volume 2016-2021 ............... 3
Table 2 Sales of Drinking Milk Products by Category: Value 2016-2021 .................. 4
Table 3 Sales of Drinking Milk Products by Category: % Volume Growth 2016-
2021 ............................................................................................................. 4
Table 4 Sales of Drinking Milk Products by Category: % Value Growth 2016-
2021 ............................................................................................................. 5
Table 5 NBO Company Shares of Drinking Milk Products: % Value 2017-2021 ....... 5
Table 6 LBN Brand Shares of Drinking Milk Products: % Value 2018-2021 ............. 6
Table 7 Distribution of Drinking Milk Products by Format: % Value 2016-2021 ........ 6
Table 8 Forecast Sales of Drinking Milk Products Products by Category:
Volume 2021-2026 ....................................................................................... 7
Table 9 Forecast Sales of Drinking Milk Products Products by Category:
Value 2021-2026 .......................................................................................... 8
Table 10 Forecast Sales of Drinking Milk Products Products by Category: %
Volume Growth 2021-2026 .......................................................................... 8
Table 11 Forecast Sales of Drinking Milk Products Products by Category: %
Value Growth 2021-2026 ............................................................................. 9
Dairy Products and Alternatives in Estonia - Industry Overview ................................................. 10
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................ 10
Dairy products and alternatives in 2021: the big picture ......................................................... 10
Key trends in 2021 .................................................................................................................. 10
Competitive landscape ........................................................................................................... 10
Channel developments ........................................................................................................... 11
What next for dairy products and alternatives? ....................................................................... 11
MARKET DATA .......................................................................................................................... 12
Table 12 Sales of Dairy Products and Alternatives by Category: Value 2016-
2021 ........................................................................................................... 12
Table 13 Sales of Dairy Products and Alternatives by Category: % Value
Growth 2016-2021 ..................................................................................... 12
Table 14 NBO Company Shares of Dairy Products and Alternatives: % Value
2017-2021 .................................................................................................. 12
Table 15 LBN Brand Shares of Dairy Products and Alternatives: % Value 2018-
2021 ........................................................................................................... 13
Table 16 Penetration of Private Label by Category: % Value 2016-2021 ................. 14

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DRINKING MILK PRODUCTS IN ESTONIA Passport ii

Table 17 Distribution of Dairy Products and Alternatives by Format: % Value

2016-2021 .................................................................................................. 14
Table 18 Forecast Sales of Dairy Products and Alternatives by Category: Value
2021-2026 .................................................................................................. 15
Table 19 Forecast Sales of Dairy Products and Alternatives by Category: %
Value Growth 2021-2026 ........................................................................... 15
DISCLAIMER ............................................................................................................................. 15
SOURCES.................................................................................................................................. 15
Summary 1 Research Sources ...................................................................................... 15

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DRINKING MILK PRODUCTS IN ESTONIA Passport 1

DRINKING MILK PRODUCTS IN

ESTONIA - CATEGORY ANALYSIS
KEY DATA FINDINGS

▪ Fortified or plant-based drinking milk products will see the greatest growth in 2021 as
consumers continue to purchase products perceived to be better for their health and wellbeing
▪ Drinking milk products will see retail decline of 6% in current value and growth of 4% in
volume to reach EUR60 million and 65,900 tonnes in 2021
▪ Other milk alternatives will see the fastest growth in 2021 with a current value increase of
17% Content removed from sample
▪ Average unit prices will decrease by 9% in 2021
▪ In 2021, Tere AS will remain the category leader with a current value share of 41%
▪ Over the forecast period, sales of drinking milk products are expected to see 5% current value
CAGR growth (3% constant value CAGR) to reach EUR77 million in 2026

2021 DEVELOPMENTS

Boost for lactose-free or fortified drinking milk products thanks to

increased focus on health and wellness
Like in most other categories, the pandemic had positive impact on retail sales of drinking milk
products. During and following the lockdown, consumers worked and studied at home, meaning
that they prepared and consumed more food and drink at home. Whilst this will continue in
2021, albeit to a lesser extent, lower volume growth is expected because some sales will revert
to the foodservice channel.
The health and wellness trend will also continue in 2021, pushing manufacturers to meet the
new consumer demands. As such, an increased number of fortified or alternative drinking milk
Content removed from sample
products are being seen in the category. Such products include those with increased protein
value, added vitamins, or those that are lactose-free. Tere remains the leader in milk
alternatives, as it was one of the first companies to introduce such products to the category and
continues to gain value from the increased health and wellness trends during pandemic.

Despite boost from stockpiling, shelf stable milk remains A niche

An increase in the consumption of shelf stable milk, which is processed at high temperatures
and lasts a longer time, was observed during the pandemic period. Such milk products were
favourable for stockpiling as they allowed consumers to shop less frequently. Nevertheless, the
category is expected to remain a niche category, with distribution confined to bigger
supermarkets.
Fresh milk will continue to hold the largest current retail value and retail volume share in
drinking milk products in 2021. Fresh milk products are widely available via grocery retailers of
Content removed from sample
all types and sizes and Estonians consider fresh milk to be healthier. This perception continues
to be reinforced by media reports and marketing campaigns by leading local manufacturers.

© Euromonitor International
DRINKING MILK PRODUCTS IN ESTONIA Passport 2

Tere will remain clear leader despite restructuring challenges

Whilst Tere will continue to lead drinking milk products in current retail value sales terms in
2021, the company’s restructuring will continue to lead to challenges behind-the-scenes. MAAG
Grupp, the owner of Farmi Piimatööstus, acquired the loan claims of the biggest creditors of
Tere and its related companies in the second half of the review period. Several months later, the
merger of Tere and Farmi Piimatööstus was approved by the Estonian Competition Authority. At
the same time, however, the reorganisation plan for Tere was rejected by the Harju County
court. Tere appealed this decision, as reorganisation was crucial to its future viability and the
company was likely to become insolvent unless the plan was approved. In the initial stage of the
merger, it was intended that Tere would continue
Content removedto operate
fromassample
a subsidiary of Farmi. If the
merger is successful, it should benefit both consumers and dairy farmers. The merged company
would become the largest local capital-based dairy manufacturer in Estonia, and market an
extensive range of products. However, despite these internal challenges, Tere will remain in first
place in drinking milk in 2021, partly due to the success of its lactose-free milk, which will remain
popular with the increasingly health-conscious consumer base.

PROSPECTS AND OPPORTUNITIES

Demand for milk alternatives is expected to grow, due to increasing

health awareness
Retail volume sales of milk alternatives are expected to grow into the forecast period, as
increasingly health-conscious consumers seek healthier alternatives, or a vegan lifestyle. Often,
producers enrich milk alternatives with vitamins and minerals which will appeal to those seeking
a healthy option, and the growing number of people with a milk allergy is expected to boost
sales on milk alternatives in coming years. Alpro NV will continue to lead milk alternatives, with
a wide array of organic products with no sweeteners, preservatives, or GMOs but an increasing
number of manufacturers and brands
Contentare expected
removed to enter.
fromThe category is still relatively young
sample
and unsaturated, allowing plenty of room for significant growth in the coming years.
As well as enriching milk alternatives, other categories of drinking milk products are also
expected to benefit from fortified or functional added value. Consumers will continue looking for
healthier products even if they choose not to go for milk alternatives. This will positively affect
the category in both volume and value terms.

Fresh milk is expected to continue to dominate into the forecast period

In line with rising health-awareness, it is expected that consumers will continue to
overwhelmingly prefer fresh milk to shelf stable products. Demand for shelf stable milk products
will be further depressed by the fact that most homes in Estonia now have refrigerators. Full fat
fresh milk is expected to record low but steady growth in retail volume sales over most of the
forecast period. Growing consumer-awareness of the potential health benefits of fattier dairy
products will support the positive development
Content of full fatfrom
removed fresh sample
milk, as will media coverage of
this subject and high-profile marketing campaigns by leading manufacturers. The product will
also continue to benefit from the fact that most Estonians traditionally favour full fat fresh milk
over other product types.

Rising popularity of organic products set to boost average unit prices

The upward trend in prices observed at the beginning of 2021 is set to continue over the
forecast period as global commodity prices rise and milk exports begin to recover. Another
reason for the upward trend in prices is the increasing popularity of organic dairy products in

Content removed from sample

© Euromonitor International
DRINKING MILK PRODUCTS IN ESTONIA Passport 3

Estonia, which command higher prices than standard products. Historically a relatively niche
area dominated by farms and smaller manufacturers, organic dairy is expected to increasingly
become available in more mainstream
Content distribution
removed channels.
fromNevertheless,
sample as COVID-19 has
increased consumers concerns about health, more consumers will turn to organic products,
boosting average unit prices in the category.

CATEGORY DATA
Table 1 Sales of Drinking Milk Products by Category: Volume 2016-2021

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

- Milk (million litres) 58.2 59.1 59.8 61.0 61.7 64.0

--- Fresh Milk (million 54.0 55.0 55.7 56.9 57.6 59.9
litres)
---- Full Fat Fresh 47.0 47.9 48.6 49.6 50.3 52.6
Milk (million litres)
---- Semi Skimmed Fresh 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
Milk (million litres)
---- Fat-free Fresh 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.2
Milk (million litres)
--- Shelf Stable Milk 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1
(million litres)
---- Full Fat Shelf 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
Stable Milk (million
litres)
---- Semi Skimmed Shelf 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Stable Milk (million
litres)
---- Fat-free Shelf - - - - - -
Stable Milk (million
litres) Data removed from sample
-- Goat Milk (million 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
litres)
- Flavoured Milk Drinks 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8
(million litres)
-- Dairy Only Flavoured 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8
Milk Drinks (million
litres)
-- Flavoured Milk - - - - - -
Drinks with Fruit Juice
(million litres)
- Powder Milk ('000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
tonnes)
-- Soy Drinks (million 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6
litres)
Drinking Milk Products - - - - - -
(Not calculable)
-- Cow's Milk (million 58.2 59.1 59.8 61.0 61.7 64.0
litres)
- Milk Alternatives 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1
(million litres)
-- Other Milk 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5
Alternatives (million
litres)
Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

© Euromonitor International
DRINKING MILK PRODUCTS IN ESTONIA Passport 4

Table 2 Sales of Drinking Milk Products by Category: Value 2016-2021

EUR million
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

- Milk 49.2 51.1 52.9 55.1 58.4 54.1

--- Fresh Milk 44.2 46.0 47.6 49.7 52.7 48.2
---- Full Fat Fresh Milk 37.0 38.6 40.1 41.9 44.5 40.0
---- Semi Skimmed Fresh 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.3
Milk
---- Fat-free Fresh Milk 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 5.9
--- Shelf Stable Milk 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.7 5.9
---- Full Fat Shelf 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.8 5.1 5.3
Stable Milk
---- Semi Skimmed Shelf 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Stable Milk
---- Fat-free Shelf - - - - - -
Stable Milk Data removed from sample
-- Goat Milk 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
- Flavoured Milk Drinks 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.5
-- Dairy Only Flavoured 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.5
Milk Drinks
-- Flavoured Milk - - - - - -
Drinks with Fruit Juice
- Powder Milk 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
-- Soy Drinks 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4
Drinking Milk Products 52.2 54.5 56.9 59.8 63.7 60.0
-- Cow's Milk 49.2 51.1 52.9 55.1 58.4 54.1
- Milk Alternatives 1.0 1.2 1.8 2.4 2.9 3.3
-- Other Milk 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.7 2.0
Alternatives
Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 3 Sales of Drinking Milk Products by Category: % Volume Growth 2016-2021

% volume growth
2020/21 2016-21 CAGR 2016/21 Total

- Milk 3.8 1.9 10.0

--- Fresh Milk 4.0 2.1 10.9
---- Full Fat Fresh Milk 4.6 2.3 11.9
---- Semi Skimmed Fresh Milk 0.3 0.6 2.9
---- Fat-free Fresh Milk 0.2 0.8 4.3
--- Shelf Stable Milk -0.1 -0.2 -1.0
---- Full Fat Shelf Stable Milk -0.1 -0.3 -1.3
---- Semi Skimmed Shelf Stable Milk -0.4
Data removed 0.2
from sample 1.0
---- Fat-free Shelf Stable Milk - - -
-- Goat Milk 3.7 1.8 9.1
- Flavoured Milk Drinks 1.1 2.3 12.2
-- Dairy Only Flavoured Milk Drinks 1.1 2.3 12.2
-- Flavoured Milk Drinks with Fruit - - -
Juice
- Powder Milk 2.3 1.3 6.6
-- Soy Drinks 12.7 28.3 247.6
Drinking Milk Products - - -

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DRINKING MILK PRODUCTS IN ESTONIA Passport 5

-- Cow's Milk 3.8 1.9 10.0

- Milk Alternatives 13.2 27.1 231.9
-- Other Milk Alternatives Data
13.9 removed from
25.9 sample216.2
Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 4 Sales of Drinking Milk Products by Category: % Value Growth 2016-2021

% current value growth

2020/21 2016-21 CAGR 2016/21 Total

- Milk -7.3 1.9 10.0

--- Fresh Milk -8.4 1.8 9.1
---- Full Fat Fresh Milk -10.1 1.6 8.0
---- Semi Skimmed Fresh Milk -2.2 2.3 12.2
---- Fat-free Fresh Milk 1.4 2.9 15.4
--- Shelf Stable Milk 3.4 3.5 18.5
---- Full Fat Shelf Stable Milk 3.4 3.5 18.6
---- Semi Skimmed Shelf Stable Milk 3.8 3.4 18.0
---- Fat-free Shelf Stable Milk -
Data removed -from sample -
-- Goat Milk 6.4 5.0 27.9
- Flavoured Milk Drinks 3.0 4.2 23.0
-- Dairy Only Flavoured Milk Drinks 3.0 4.2 23.0
-- Flavoured Milk Drinks with Fruit - - -
Juice
- Powder Milk 3.7 3.4 18.1
-- Soy Drinks 16.0 30.3 275.3
Drinking Milk Products -5.8 2.8 14.9
-- Cow's Milk -7.3 1.9 10.0
- Milk Alternatives 16.5 28.3 247.9
-- Other Milk Alternatives 16.9 27.0 230.8
Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 5 NBO Company Shares of Drinking Milk Products: % Value 2017-2021

% retail value rsp

Company 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Tere AS 45.3 45.2 43.0 42.1 41.0

Farmi Piimatööstus AS 18.1 18.3 19.1 19.3 18.5
Valio Eesti AS 19.5 19.3 19.2 19.1 18.4
Alpro NV 1.5 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.8
Eugesta Eesti AS 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.7
Rimi Eesti Food AS 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5
Candia SA Data removed
0.7 from sample
0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7
Campina BV, 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Zuivelcoöperatie
Uus Algus OÜ 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5
Royal Wessanen NV - 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4
Prisma Peremarket AS - 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
MAAG Piimatööstus AS - - - - -
Other Private Label 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.9 4.1
Others 7.1 6.6 7.9 8.3 9.8
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

© Euromonitor International
DRINKING MILK PRODUCTS IN ESTONIA Passport 6

Table 6 LBN Brand Shares of Drinking Milk Products: % Value 2018-2021

% retail value rsp

Brand (GBO) Company (NBO) 2018 2019 2020 2021

Tere Tere AS 45.2 43.0 42.1 41.0

Farmi (MAAG Grupp AS) Farmi Piimatööstus AS 18.3 19.1 19.3 18.5
Alma (Valio Oy) Valio Eesti AS 19.3 19.2 19.1 18.4
Alpro (Danone, Alpro NV 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.8
Groupe)
Danonki (Danone, Eugesta Eesti AS 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.7
Groupe)
Rimi (Private Label) Rimi Eesti Food AS 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5
Candy'Up (Sodiaal Candia SA 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7
SA (Société de
Diffusion
Internationale Agro-
alimentaire)) Data removed from sample
Yazoo (Royal Campina BV, 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
FrieslandCampina NV) Zuivelcoöperatie
Sojajook Uus Algus OÜ 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5
Isola Bio Royal Wessanen NV 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4
Rainbow (Private Prisma Peremarket AS 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Label)
Alpro (WhiteWave Alpro NV - - - -
Foods Co)
Farmi (MAAG Grupp AS) MAAG Piimatööstus AS - - - -
Hellus Tere AS - - - -
Other Private Label Other Private Label 3.8 3.7 3.9 4.1
(Private Label)
Others Others 6.6 7.9 8.3 9.8
Total Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 7 Distribution of Drinking Milk Products by Format: % Value 2016-2021

% retail value rsp

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Store-Based Retailing 99.5 98.6 98.0 97.4 95.7 94.6

- Grocery Retailers 99.5 98.6 98.0 97.4 95.7 94.6
-- Modern Grocery 95.1 93.9 92.8 92.8 91.4 89.1
Retailers
--- Convenience Stores 7.9 8.3 7.5 8.9 8.6 9.3
--- Discounters 16.7 - - - - -
--- Forecourt Retailers 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5
--- Hypermarkets 33.0 36.7 33.1 32.6 35.4 35.7
--- Supermarkets 37.4
Data
48.7
removed
51.8
from
50.8
sample
46.9 43.6
-- Traditional Grocery 4.4 4.6 5.2 4.6 4.3 5.5
Retailers
--- Food/drink/tobacco 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.9
specialists
--- Independent Small 2.0 2.1 2.6 2.0 1.8 2.6
Grocers
--- Other Grocery - - - - - -

© Euromonitor International
DRINKING MILK PRODUCTS IN ESTONIA Passport 7

Retailers
- Non-Grocery Specialists - - - - - -
-- Health and Beauty - - - - - -
Specialist Retailers
-- Other Foods Non- - - - - - -
Grocery Specialists
- Mixed Retailers - - - - - -
Non-Store Retailing 0.5 1.4 Data removed
2.0 from
2.6 sample
4.3 5.4
- Vending - - - - - -
- Homeshopping - - - - - -
- E-Commerce 0.5 1.4 2.0 2.6 4.3 5.4
- Direct Selling - - - - - -
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 8 Forecast Sales of Drinking Milk Products Products by Category: Volume 2021-
2026

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

- Milk (million litres) 64.0 66.2 67.8 69.2 70.4 71.6

--- Fresh Milk (million 59.9 62.1 63.7 65.2 66.4 67.5
litres)
---- Full Fat Fresh 52.6 54.7 56.4 57.8 58.9 60.1
Milk (million litres)
---- Semi Skimmed Fresh 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2
Milk (million litres)
---- Fat-free Fresh 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.3
Milk (million litres)
--- Shelf Stable Milk 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1
(million litres)
---- Full Fat Shelf 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
Stable Milk (million
litres)
---- Semi Skimmed Shelf 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Stable Milk (million
litres)
---- Fat-free Shelf - - - - - -
Stable Milk (million Data removed from sample
litres)
-- Goat Milk (million 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
litres)
- Flavoured Milk Drinks 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
(million litres)
-- Dairy Only Flavoured 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Milk Drinks (million
litres)
-- Flavoured Milk - - - - - -
Drinks with Fruit Juice
(million litres)
- Powder Milk ('000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
tonnes)
-- Soy Drinks (million 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1
litres)
Drinking Milk Products - - - - - -
(Not calculable)
-- Cow's Milk (million 64.0 66.2 67.8 69.2 70.4 71.6
litres)

© Euromonitor International
DRINKING MILK PRODUCTS IN ESTONIA Passport 8

- Milk Alternatives 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.9

(million litres)
-- Other Milk 0.5 0.6 Data removed
0.7 from
0.7 sample
0.8 0.8
Alternatives (million
litres)
Source: Euromonitor International from trade associations, trade press, company research, trade interviews,
trade sources

Table 9 Forecast Sales of Drinking Milk Products Products by Category: Value 2021-
2026

EUR million
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

- Milk 54.1 56.1 57.8 59.1 60.3 61.6

--- Fresh Milk 48.2 50.1 51.6 52.8 54.0 55.1
---- Full Fat Fresh Milk 40.0 41.8 43.3 44.4 45.5 46.5
---- Semi Skimmed Fresh 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6
Milk
---- Fat-free Fresh Milk 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9
--- Shelf Stable Milk 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.5
---- Full Fat Shelf 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8
Stable Milk
---- Semi Skimmed Shelf 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7
Stable Milk
---- Fat-free Shelf - - Data removed
- from
- sample- -
Stable Milk
-- Goat Milk 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
- Flavoured Milk Drinks 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6
-- Dairy Only Flavoured 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6
Milk Drinks
-- Flavoured Milk - - - - - -
Drinks with Fruit Juice
- Powder Milk 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
-- Soy Drinks 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3
Drinking Milk Products 60.0 62.3 64.4 66.0 67.7 69.3
-- Cow's Milk 54.1 56.1 57.8 59.1 60.3 61.5
- Milk Alternatives 3.3 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.7 5.1
-- Other Milk 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.8
Alternatives
Source: Euromonitor International from trade associations, trade press, company research, trade interviews,
trade sources

Table 10 Forecast Sales of Drinking Milk Products Products by Category: % Volume

Growth 2021-2026

% volume growth
2021/22 2021-26 CAGR 2021/26 Total

- Milk 3.4 2.3 11.9

--- Fresh Milk 3.6 2.4 12.7
---- Full Fat Fresh Milk 4.1 2.7 14.3
---- Semi Skimmed Fresh Milk 0.4 0.3 1.5
---- Fat-free Fresh Milk Data
0.3 removed from
0.4 sample 1.8
--- Shelf Stable Milk -0.1 -0.1 -0.6
---- Full Fat Shelf Stable Milk -0.1 -0.1 -0.6
---- Semi Skimmed Shelf Stable Milk 0.0 -0.1 -0.5

© Euromonitor International
DRINKING MILK PRODUCTS IN ESTONIA Passport 9

---- Fat-free Shelf Stable Milk - - -

-- Goat Milk 3.0 2.4 12.7
- Flavoured Milk Drinks 1.6 1.5 7.5
-- Dairy Only Flavoured Milk Drinks 1.6 1.5 7.5
-- Flavoured Milk Drinks with Fruit - - -
Juice
- Powder Milk 1.9 1.4 7.1
-- Soy Drinks
Data
14.4
removed from
11.8
sample 74.9
Drinking Milk Products - - -
-- Cow's Milk 3.4 2.3 11.9
- Milk Alternatives 12.7 10.2 62.8
-- Other Milk Alternatives 10.8 8.4 49.5
Source: Euromonitor International from trade associations, trade press, company research, trade interviews,
trade sources

Table 11 Forecast Sales of Drinking Milk Products Products by Category: % Value

Growth 2021-2026

% constant value growth

2021/2022 2021-26 CAGR 2021/26 Total

- Milk 3.6 2.6 13.7

--- Fresh Milk 3.8 2.7 14.2
---- Full Fat Fresh Milk 4.4 3.1 16.3
---- Semi Skimmed Fresh Milk 3.5 2.5 13.1
---- Fat-free Fresh Milk -0.1 0.1 0.7
--- Shelf Stable Milk 2.0 1.8 9.3
---- Full Fat Shelf Stable Milk 2.0 1.8 9.6
---- Semi Skimmed Shelf Stable Milk 2.1 1.4 7.2
---- Fat-free Shelf Stable Milk - - -
-- Goat Milk 3.7 3.0 15.9
- Flavoured Milk Drinks Data
1.0 removed from
0.9 sample 4.4
-- Dairy Only Flavoured Milk Drinks 1.0 0.9 4.4
-- Flavoured Milk Drinks with Fruit - - -
Juice
- Powder Milk 1.7 1.0 5.3
-- Soy Drinks 12.7 11.0 68.8
Drinking Milk Products 3.9 2.9 15.5
-- Cow's Milk 3.6 2.6 13.7
- Milk Alternatives 10.3 8.9 53.3
-- Other Milk Alternatives 8.6 7.3 42.3
Source: Euromonitor International from trade associations, trade press, company research, trade interviews,
trade sources

© Euromonitor International
DRINKING MILK PRODUCTS IN ESTONIA Passport 10

DAIRY PRODUCTS AND

ALTERNATIVES IN ESTONIA -
INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Dairy products and alternatives in 2021: the big picture

The pandemic had overwhelmingly positive impact on retail sales in dairy products and
alternatives as sales switched from foodservice to retail during the lockdowns. Furthermore,
even when foodservice was able to reopen in some capacity, consumers remained concerned
about visiting, preferring to stay home and prepare meals themselves. As such, retail volume
growth in 2021 will remain at a similar level to that of 2020. Meanwhile, current value growth will
notably decelerate as brands as retailers offer special discounts and promotions to gain
consumer attention during difficult economic conditions.
Although dairy will continue Content
to see growth in value and
removed volume
from sales, baby food will see
sample
decrease in volume sales and a slowdown in value growth. Although vaccination of the
population has begun, many consumers are continuing to spend more time at home than they
did pre-pandemic. This has given them more opportunity to create home-made baby food to
give to their children. In addition, consumers are using up the supplies they stockpiled during the
first year of the pandemic. This is damaging the demand for store-bought baby food, causing
sales to decline in 2021, with price inflation sustaining current value growth.

Key trends in 2021

In baby food, the most dynamic types of products in 2021 are snacks. The range of these
baby snacks is constantly increasing, and as the range increases, so does the demand.
Furthermore, with restrictions relaxing and consumers out and about more often, they are
looking for baby food that they can give their children to consume on-the-go. Such products are
still relatively young in Estonia with the category not yet saturated. Thus, the products are
seeing marked growth, with further growth (both in terms of new product development and
sales) is expected in the forecast period.
Within dairy, it is free-from products that are seeing the greatest dynamism in 2021. Given the
improvement seen in medical testing and the
Content more accurate
removed fromdetection
sampleof food intolerances,
more consumers are recognising the need to cut certain elements from their diet. In addition, a
growing number of consumers without intolerances are choosing to cut or reduce their intake of
certain foods for health or ethical reasons. As such, there is growing demand for lactose-free,
meat-free, and vegan products. Given the growth in demand, the number of manufacturers and
range of products is increasing as players strive to capitalise on the specific needs of different
consumers.

Competitive landscape
Tere will remain the clear leader in dairy as well as the overall category of dairy products and
alternatives in 2021. The company has presence in all dairy categories and leads in butter and
spreads, drinking milk products, yoghurt and sour milk products, and other dairy. In cheese, the
player in in fourth place, with Estover maintaining a clear lead over its closest competitors. In

Content removed from sample

© Euromonitor International
DRINKING MILK PRODUCTS IN ESTONIA Passport 11

baby food, Hipp is the leader, followed closely by Nutri Kaubandus. Together, the two baby food
players will hold a dominant share of the category in 2021.
In 2021, companies continue to invest in added-value products or free-from dairy alternatives.
COVID-19 has raised the health concerns of consumers in the country. Thus, many are seeking
products enhanced with vitamins to boost their immune systems. Companies that were able to
adapt their products and messaging to remain relevant to the pandemic will generally continue
performing very well in 2021. In addition, consumers are increasingly choosing to reduce their
dairy-intake, some due to intolerances
Content andremoved
some for health
fromorsample
environmental reasons. As such,
innovations such as plant- based drinks and lactose-free products are seeing accelerating
demand, particularly with drinking milk products.
As well as investing in new or improved products, players and retailers have been working
more together to reduce production of the worse performing products. As such, companies are
choosing to streamline their production and focus on only the best performing products.
Producers supplying to foodservice sector experienced a redistribution of demand and
adjusted production accordingly. after the closure of foodservice, the demand for fresh cheeses
decreased significantly, but the demand for fermented, hard, and semi-hard cheeses increased
in retail. Household consumption of dairy products has increased in general.

Channel developments
Foodservice has been hit the hardest by the pandemic in 2020 and 2021. Establishments
were required to close in 2020 during the state of emergency to stall the spread of the virus,
preventing sales during this time. The order to end the state of emergency came into force on
18 May 2020 but some restrictions remained around freedom of movement and public meetings
and events. From 9 August 2020, up to 50 people were allowed to be hosted indoors and
outdoors at foodservice venues if there are no infection risks. No limitations were placed on
buying food via takeaway. These were adopted based on the Communicable Diseases
Prevention and Control Act and State Borders Act. From 24 September 2020 these restrictions
were tightened again due to rapidly increasing infections. Such measures and the fear of
catching COVID-19, along withContent
the lack of removed
tourists, continued to restrict sales via foodservice. As
from sample
such, volume sales saw a double-digit decline in 2020 and many businesses were forced to
close.
However, at the end of 2020 and during the first half of 2021, restrictions in Estonia were mild
compared with some other EU countries. Restaurants and other catering services continue to
operate, albeit with some capacity limits in place, including masks being required indoors. In
addition, consumers are starting to feel safer now that the vaccination process is in process, and
they are more confident returning to foodservice venues. This means that the foodservice sales
will improve in 2021, albeit not to the levels they were in 2019.

What next for dairy products and alternatives?

The pandemic has given rise to increased health consciousness that is set to linger over the
coming years, particularly whilst COVID-19 persists. As such, consumers will continue placing
greater focus on their health and alter their diet accordingly. Organic products, especially those
with higher nutritional value, are set to fare well in dairy in the future. In addition, the craze for
dairy alternatives that are plant-based, vegan, or lactose-free, will continue seeing greater
demand.
In terms of retailing, e-commerce is set to
Content play a much
removed larger
from role in the future. The onset of
sample
COVID-19 boosted e-commerce, as consumers felt safer ordering products from the safety of
their own homes. As such, it is becoming commonplace for all players to have a well-structured
e-commerce strategy in place, whether via their own websites, a third party retailer, or a

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DRINKING MILK PRODUCTS IN ESTONIA Passport 12

combination of both. Given the acceleration of the integration of technology into society, it is
anticipated that there will continue to be significant growth and improvement of e-commerce in
the forecast period.

Content removed from sample

MARKET DATA
Table 12 Sales of Dairy Products and Alternatives by Category: Value 2016-2021

EUR million
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Baby Food 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.4 6.5

Dairy 240.8 255.5 Data 273.1
removed 288.7
from sample
308.4 314.5
Dairy Products and 246.3 261.1 278.9 294.8 314.9 320.9
Alternatives
Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 13 Sales of Dairy Products and Alternatives by Category: % Value Growth 2016-
2021

% current value growth

2020/21 2016-21 CAGR 2016/21 Total

Dairy Products and Alternatives 1.9 5.4 30.3

Dairy Data
2.0 removed from
5.5 sample 30.6
Baby Food 0.6 3.6 19.5
Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 14 NBO Company Shares of Dairy Products and Alternatives: % Value 2017-2021

% retail value rsp

Company 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Tere AS 27.1 27.2 26.7 26.4 26.3

Valio Eesti AS 16.7 16.5 16.6 16.6 16.5
Farmi Piimatööstus AS 11.2 10.9 11.1 11.0 10.8
Estover OÜ 9.3 9.1 8.9 8.9 8.9
Saaremaa Piimatööstus AS 3.3 3.7 3.9 3.9 4.3
Eugesta Eesti AS 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.6
E-Piim Tootmine AS 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3
Unilever Eesti AS 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2
Juustukuningad OÜ 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9
Lactalis, Groupe Data removed
- from0.5sample 0.6 0.7 0.8
Rimi Eesti Food AS 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Mondelez International - 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
Inc
Maxima Eesti OÜ 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7
Selver AS 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6
Ferrero SpA 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Hipp GmbH & Co Vertrieb 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5
KG
Alpro NV 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5

© Euromonitor International
DRINKING MILK PRODUCTS IN ESTONIA Passport 13

Saidafarm AS 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5

Marijampoles Pieno 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Konservai AB
Nutri Kaubandus OÜ 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Nantecom OÜ 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Šilutes Rambynas ABF 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Polven Foods OÜ 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Rakvere Lihakombinaat AS Data removed
0.3 from sample
0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2
Polmlek Grudziadz Sp Zoo 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Prisma Peremarket AS 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Nopri Talumeierei OÜ 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Royal FrieslandCampina NV 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
Andre Juustufarm OÜ 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Candia SA 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Other Private Label 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9
Others 12.9 12.6 12.8 13.1 12.7
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 15 LBN Brand Shares of Dairy Products and Alternatives: % Value 2018-2021

% retail value rsp

Brand (GBO) Company (NBO) 2018 2019 2020 2021

Tere Tere AS 23.3 22.8 22.6 22.3

Farmi (MAAG Grupp AS) Farmi Piimatööstus AS 10.1 10.3 10.3 10.0
Alma (Valio Oy) Valio Eesti AS 9.9 9.8 9.7 9.4
Eesti Juust Estover OÜ 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4
Atleet (Valio Oy) Valio Eesti AS 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
Saaremaa Või Saaremaa Piimatööstus AS 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.6
Epiim E-Piim Tootmine AS 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3
Edam Estover OÜ 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3
Hiirte Juust Estover OÜ 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.1
Valio (Valio Oy) Valio Eesti AS 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8
Valio Või (Valio Oy) Valio Eesti AS 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8
Saaremaa Saaremaa Piimatööstus AS 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.7
Rama (Upfield Unilever Eesti AS 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
Holdings BV)
Keiju (Bunge Ltd) Eugesta Eesti AS 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
Merevaik Tere AS 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4
Tere Võideks Tere AS 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2
Danone (Danone, Eugesta Eesti AS 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Groupe) Data removed from sample
Juustukuningad Juustukuningad OÜ 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9
President Lactalis, Groupe 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8
Hellus Tere AS 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Philadelphia (Kraft Mondelez International 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
Heinz Co) Inc
Optima Linija Maxima Eesti OÜ 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7
(Private Label)
Voimix (Bunge Ltd) Eugesta Eesti AS 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Selver Või (Private Selver AS 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6
Label)
Piimameister Otto Estover OÜ 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Alpro (Danone, Alpro NV 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5
Groupe)
Saidafarm Saidafarm AS 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5
Hipp Hipp GmbH & Co Vertrieb KG 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

© Euromonitor International
DRINKING MILK PRODUCTS IN ESTONIA Passport 14

Kreeka Jogurt (MAAG Farmi Piimatööstus AS 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

Grupp AS)
Makromilk Marijampoles Pieno 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Konservai AB
Other Private Label DataLabel
Other Private removed from sample
2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9
(Private Label)
Others Others 19.6 19.7 19.9 19.5
Total Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 16 Penetration of Private Label by Category: % Value 2016-2021

% retail value rsp

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Dairy 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2

Dairy Products and 4.9 4.9Data removed
4.9 from
4.9 sample5.0 5.1
Alternatives
Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 17 Distribution of Dairy Products and Alternatives by Format: % Value 2016-2021

% retail value rsp

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Store-Based Retailing 99.3 98.5 97.7 96.9 94.9 94.1

- Grocery Retailers 99.1 98.3 97.4 96.7 94.7 93.9
-- Modern Grocery 93.8 92.7 91.8 91.1 89.0 87.8
Retailers
--- Convenience Stores 7.5 7.7 6.9 8.2 8.1 8.1
--- Discounters 14.7 - - - - -
--- Forecourt Retailers 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9
--- Hypermarkets 34.2 37.6 34.2 34.0 34.0 34.2
--- Supermarkets 36.8 46.6 49.8 48.0 46.1 44.6
-- Traditional Grocery 5.2 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.7 6.1
Retailers
--- Food/drink/tobacco 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9
specialists
--- Independent Small 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.7
Grocers Data removed from sample
--- Other Grocery 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Retailers
- Non-Grocery Specialists 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
-- Health and Beauty 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Specialist Retailers
-- Other Foods Non- - - - - - -
Grocery Specialists
- Mixed Retailers - - - - - -
Non-Store Retailing 0.7 1.5 2.3 3.1 5.1 5.9
- Vending - - - - - -
- Homeshopping - - - - - -
- E-Commerce 0.7 1.5 2.3 3.1 5.1 5.9
- Direct Selling - - - - - -
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

© Euromonitor International
DRINKING MILK PRODUCTS IN ESTONIA Passport 15

Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 18 Forecast Sales of Dairy Products and Alternatives by Category: Value 2021-
2026

EUR million
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Dairy Products and 320.9 330.6 340.0 349.0 358.1 367.5

Alternatives
Dairy 314.5 324.0 Data 333.4
removed 342.3
from sample
351.3 360.7
Baby Food 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.9
Source: Euromonitor International from trade associations, trade press, company research, trade interviews,
trade sources

Table 19 Forecast Sales of Dairy Products and Alternatives by Category: % Value Growth
2021-2026

% constant value growth

2021/2022 2021-26 CAGR 2021/26 Total

Dairy 3.0 2.8 14.7

Dairy Products and Alternatives 3.0
Baby Food
Data
1.4
removed2.7
from
1.1
sample14.5
5.7
Source: Euromonitor International from trade associations, trade press, company research, trade interviews,
trade sources

DISCLAIMER
Forecast and scenario closing date: 2 August 2021
Report closing date: 4 October 2021
Analysis and data in this report give full consideration to consumer behaviour and market
performance in 2021 and beyond as of theremoved
Content dates above.
fromFor sample
the very latest insight on this
industry and consumer behaviour, at both global and national level, readers can access
strategic analysis and updates on www.euromonitor.com and via the Passport system, where
new content is being added on a systematic basis.

SOURCES
Sources used during research include the following:

Summary 1 Research Sources

Official Sources Äriregister

Estonian Agricultural Registers & Information

Board
Content removed from sample
Estonian Institute for Economic Research

European Central Bank

European Commission Eurostat

© Euromonitor International
DRINKING MILK PRODUCTS IN ESTONIA Passport 16

HKScan Oyj

International Trade Centre

Ministry of Agriculture

Statistics Estonia

trademap.org

Trade Associations Association of the Estonian Food Industry

Estonian Association of Bakeries

Estonian Beekeepers Association

Estonian Chamber of Agriculture & Commerce

Estonian Chambre of Commerce & Agriculture

Estonian Food Industry Association

Estonian Traders Association

Tulundusühistu Epiko

Trade Press Ärileht

Content removed from sample
Äripäev

delfi.ee

E24

Eesti Ekspress

Eesti Päevaleht

Estonian Public Broadcasting

Financial Times

Hea Eesti Idee

Järva Teataja

Kaubandus

Linnaleht

Maaleht

Majandus24

Meie Maa

Neljas.ee

Põhjarannik

Pollumajandus.ee

Postimees

Saarte Hääl

Sakala

© Euromonitor International
DRINKING MILK PRODUCTS IN ESTONIA Passport 17

SL Ohtuleht

Tööstusuudised

Content removed from sample

Valgamaalane

Virumaa Teataja

Woro Kommerts AS

Source: Euromonitor International

© Euromonitor International