Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2020) 27:10265–10274

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-07174-8

RESEARCH ARTICLE

The role of partisan conflict in environmental sustainability targets

of the United States
Seyi Saint Akadiri 1,2,3 & Andrew Adewale Alola 4,5

Received: 26 September 2019 / Accepted: 25 November 2019 / Published online: 13 January 2020
# Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020

Abstract
The prevailing political atmosphere and partisanship in the United States depict the degree of polarization between the two major
political parties of the country. Evidently, the polarization between the Democratic Party (DP) and the Republican Party will
expectedly drive the partisan conflict to the higher levels. Considering this motivation, this paper examined the role of partisan
conflict in the pollutant emissions in the case of the United States. For sound empirical analysis, the impacts of other environ-
mental quality determinants are being examined over the period 1960–2015. In order to present a decent argument that is viable
for policy implementation, the study adopts the combined methodologies of Johansen cointegration; the autoregressive distrib-
uted lag (ARDL) of Pesaran et al. J Am Stat Assoc 94(446):621–634 (1999); and the Toda and Yamamoto J Econ 66(1–2):225–
250 (1995) Granger causality. Empirical outcomes show (i) the kg oil equivalent per capita energy consumed exercise positive
and significant impacts on metric tons of per capita CO2 emissions, and it is the principal determinant of environmental
degradation in both the short-run and the long-run (ii) renewable energy consumption and economic growth also exercise
negative and significant impacts on metric tons of per capita CO2 emissions. Based on our empirical findings, we conclude that
partisan conflict indirectly plays a significant role in environmental sustainability targets of the United States. Thus, we are of the
opinion that the government should avoid heightened partisan conflict among the political parties in order to promote sustainable
environmental policies that would enhance sound and clean environment for both the immediate and the future generation.

Keywords Energy demand . Environmental pollution . Partisan conflict . Real income . United States

Introduction
We would like to thank the two anonymous referee(s) for their useful
comments
The reasons for the continuous review of the climate ac-
Responsible editor: Muhammad Shahbaz tions and mitigation mechanisms against global pollutant
emissions are being ascribed to the pertinent threat posed
* Seyi Saint Akadiri by climate change. As an existential threat to humanity
seyi.saint@sheytexlogistics.com
vis-à-vis the humans’ socioeconomic and environmental
sustainability, the characteristic dynamics of the global
Andrew Adewale Alola
aadewale@gelisim.edu.tr pollutant emissions has avail several conceptual models
that are targeted at mitigating the resulting environmental
1
Sheytex Logistics and Services Limited, Kubwa, Abuja, Nigeria hazards. In the last decades, the scope of the causative
2
College of Business, Westcliff University, Irvine, CA, USA factors of environmental degradation has been broadened
3 to accommodate almost all human activities, thus the af-
Department of International Economics and Management, Graduate
School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, termath of these activities on the socioeconomic and the
Sverdlovsk Oblast, Russia environment. In this regard, the platforms of the intergov-
4
Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences, ernmental organizations such as the Intergovernmental
Istanbul, Turkey Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and other stakeholders
5
Department of Financial Technologies, South Ural State University, are being deployed for identification and effective man-
Chelyabinsk, Russia agement of the environmental dangers.
10266
Notwithstanding, the threat to humans’ socioeconomic and
environment endowments has remained almost unhindered
(Alola et al. 2019b; Bekun et al. 2019). For instance, ahead
of the United Nations (UN) Climate Action Summit coming
up later in September 2019, participating entities are being
encouraged to further promote their commitments in reducing
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 45% over the next de-
cade and to net zero emissions by 2050 (United Nations
2019). This directive is in response to the increasing record
levels of global emissions without any immediate sign of
climaxing. Also, the last 4 years has been recorded as the four
hottest and winter temperatures in the Arctic (United Nations
2019). Indicatively, the pollutant emission trajectories of the
large economy states such as the United States and China
(currently ranked as the largest two emitters of carbon emis-
sions) have continued to be another reference of the climate
change emergency.
However, the current political and policy dynamics of the
United States arising from the increasing partisanship and ex-
pansion of partisan conflict (PC) are being perceived to affect
the country’s commitment to the international treaty on cli-
mate action such as the Paris Agreement.1 The current policy
switch in the United States depicts the degree of polarization
between the two major political parties of the country.
Evidently, the polarization between the Democratic Party
(DP) and the Republican Party will expectedly drive the par-
tisan conflict to the higher levels (Balcilar et al. 2019). The
climate change policies of the United States are not totally
immune from the implication of this characterized political
polarization in the country. For instance, the global campaign
and the severity of climate change have ever been questioned
by the Republican Party, thus resulting in the country’s noti-
fication for withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on climate
change as announced by the current government. Hence, the
roles of partisan conflict in the United States, such as in eco-
nomic growth, investment, market dynamics, and democratic
values, among others, may as well be further examined in the
concept of climate change. Generally, the role of partisan con-
flict in the United States has been examined within the concept
of stock market volatility (Gupta et al. 2018), investment
(Azzimonti 2018), income inequality (Balcilar et al. 2019),
and other government policies (Shapiro and Bloch-Elkon
2005; Cheng et al. 2016).
Given this motivation, the current study attempts to exam-
ine the role of partisan conflict in the pollutant emissions in the
United States. In so doing, the impacts of other environmental
quality determinants such as the income (measured by the
1
Paris Agreement of the United Nations Climate Change builds upon the
convention and for the first time brings all nations into a common cause to
undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change and adapt to its effects,
with enhanced support to assist developing countries to do so. Further infor-
mation on Paris Agreement is available at https://unfccc.int/process-and-
meetings#:a0659cbd-3b30-4c05-a4f9-268f16e5dd6b.
Environ Sci Pollut Res (2020) 27:10265–10274
gross domestic product per capita (GDP)), the fossil energy
fuel energy consumption (EUSE), and the renewable energy
consumption (RCON) are being examined over the period
1960–2015. In order to present a decent argument that is via-
ble for policy implementation, the study adopts the combined
methodologies of Johansen cointegration; the autoregressive
distributed lag (ARDL) of Pesaran et al. (1999); and the Toda
and Yamamoto (1995) Granger causality. Although several
attempts have been directed at exploring the dynamics of en-
vironmental sustainability especially for the United States
(Soytas et al. 2007; Raza et al. 2017; Raza et al. 2019; Alola
2019a, b), the current study differs in concept because it pre-
sents novel approach novel to environmental sustainability. In
novelty, the current study incorporates the index of partisan
conflict (PC) in the environmental sustainability model for the
first time, at least to the best of authors’ knowledge. The es-
sence for this is to examine the short- and long-term role of PC
on environmental sustainability in the United States consider-
ing the current rise in the US partisanship. Also, the current
study adds to the extant literature by combining the three
approaches of Johansen cointegration; the autoregressive dis-
tributed lag (ARDL) of Pesaran et al. (1999); and the Toda and
Yamamoto (1995) Granger causality.
The study layout is as follows; Sect. 2 presents an overview of
the related and previous studies, while Sect. 3 introduces the data
and empirical models adopted for the investigation. In Sect. 4, the
results of the empirical estimations are presented and discussed,
while Sect. 5 summarizes the result and describes the potential
policy direction and recommendation for future study.
Literature overview
Climate change and partisanship divides
The public divide on climate change especially in the United
States has mostly been ideologically conceived by the parti-
sanship of the liberals (who are quick to see fossil fuel as a
determinate of anthropogenic climate change) and the conser-
vatives (who are pessimist of the change rhetoric) (Gerber
2013; Pearson and Schuldt 2015; Dunlap et al. 2016; Mayer
2019; Wishart 2019). By having the largest coal reserve in the
world and given that the US coal industry is the most carbon-
intensive source of energy, the partisan conflict has continued
to present a unique phase in the country’s political economy
and a tussle between the climate change advocacy and climate
change pessimist (Wishart 2019). Accordingly, Wishart
(2019) employed an exploratory network analysis and the
power structure research approach to examine the existing
perceptions on climate change actions expressed by the US
elite energy and environmental policy-planning networks and
organizations. In so doing, Wishart (2019) mainly found that
the strategic incorporation of the coal interests into the
Environ Sci Pollut Res (2020) 27:10265–10274
ultraconservative business policy groups and industry associ-
ations posit a more complex environmental quality policy im-
plementation in the United States.
Moreover, the criticality of political divide amid the widen-
ing gap of partisanship and polarization in the United States has
further been thoroughly examined within the concept of cli-
mate change in the studies of Dunlap and McCright (2008),
McCright and Dunlap (2011), and Dunlap et al. (2016). For
instance, Dunlap et al. (2016) identified the increasing ideolog-
ical gap that exists between the campaigner for environmental
protection measures (such as the Democrats and the US
Environmental Protection Agency) and the climate change pes-
simist (such as the Republican (GOP)). Although Dunlap et al.
(2016) found that partisan divide on global warming in the
United States attained a 34%-point difference between the cli-
mate change campaigner and the pessimist in 2008, it has since
continued to decline. However, the partisanship divide over
climate change in the United States was observed to reach
41%-point difference in both 2010 and 2015. Similarly,
McCright and Dunlap (2011) examined the American public’s
political polarization over climate change and during the 2001
to 2010 period. Interestingly, the study found that the reports
and opinions of the liberals and Democrats are mostly
consistent with the scientific consensus on climate change
than the reports of the conservative and Republicans. Also,
McCright and Dunlap (2011) opined that educational attain-
ment and self-reported understanding are key determinants of
global warming beliefs and concern. These impacts are ob-
served to be positive for the liberals and Democrats and nega-
tive for conservatives and the Republicans. The studies earlier
discussed are follow-up from the previous and similar perspec-
tives of Dunlap and McCright (2008).
Climate change: impacts of income and energy
The impact of real income, renewable energy consumption,
and other energy portfolios on environmental degradation es-
pecially for the United States has been widely studied (Soytas
et al. 2007; Menyah and Wolde-Rufael 2010; Wang et al.,
2018; Alola and Yildirim 2019; Halkos and Polemis 2019;
Jorgenson et al. 2017; Raza et al. 2019; Saint Akadiri et al.
2019a). In the study of Soytas et al. (2007), the impacts of
energy consumption and income on carbon emissions in the
United States were examined over the period of 1960 to 2004.
By employing the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) Granger cau-
sality, generalized impulse response, and variance
decompositions techniques, Soytas et al. (2007) found that
the EKC (environmental Kuznets curve) hypothesis is not
valid for the United States. Also, energy consumption is ob-
served to exert the largest impact, thereby responsible for the
larger carbon emissions than the other environmental degra-
dation determinants such as output growth. But in regard to
income growth, the study fails to find supporting evidence that
10267
a trade-off is essential for carbon abatement, thus implying
that low income in the country is not a prerequisite for lower
carbon emissions. In revealing evidence, Toda and Yamamoto
(1995) Granger causality found that income does not Granger
cause carbon emissions in the United States in the long run,
while the reverse is the case for energy consumption. But the
case of income inequality is slightly different for the United
States as presented in the work of Liu et al. (2019).
Accordingly, Liu et al. (2019) opined that higher income in-
equality in the United States causes more carbon emissions in
the short term but induces carbon abatement in the long term.
Furthermore, Menyah and Wolde-Rufael similarly
employed the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) Granger causality
approach to examine the relationship between nuclear energy
consumption, renewable energy consumption, economic
growth, and carbon emissions. While Menyah and Wolde-
Rufael expanded the experimental year to 2007, the study
found that nuclear energy consumption could account for
more carbon emissions reduction in the United States. This
expectation is coined from the Granger causality result which
revealed that there is significant unidirectional Granger cau-
sality from nuclear energy consumption to carbon emissions.
But, in the same study, there is no significant Granger causal-
ity from renewable energy consumption to carbon emissions
in the United States. However, a unidirectional Granger cau-
sality from carbon emissions to renewable energy consump-
tion is significant in the country. By using a different approach
(decomposition and decoupling analysis), Wang et al. (2018)
found that income effects inhibited the decoupling but the
decoupling was aided by energy intensity and energy mix.
Additionally, the wavelength transform approach of Raza
et al. (2019) found that energy consumption promoted carbon
dioxide emissions in the United States especially over an
experimented period of January 1973 to July 2015. Several
other extant studies have examined the role of the sources of
energy in climate change vis-à-vis environmental sustainabil-
ity (Alola et al. 2019a, b; Sarkodie and Strezov 2019).
Materials and methodology
Materials and description of variables
This section discusses the data and methodology employed for
empirical analysis. As pointed out in Sect. 1, the current study
attempts to examine the role of partisan conflict in the pollutant
emissions in the United States. We examined whether partisan
conflict directly or indirectly contributes to environmental deg-
radation level or not in the case of the United States. Results
from this study are expected to shed light on the role of partisan
conflict in stimulating or curbing the increase in pollutant emis-
sions among nations that are highly polarized, especially in the
United States. We are of the opinion that, by understanding the
10268
interrelationship and interconnectedness between the variables,
we help and provide the basis for authorities and policymakers
who design, develop, and implement energy and environmen-
tal policies. While partisan conflict is necessary and inevitable
for democracy, most especially in the United States, the party
agendas of the Democrats and Republicans are such that should
be void of heightened conflict so as not to aid environmental
degradation.
Considering the fact that a rise in partisan conflict is a
potential inpediment to the development of energy and envi-
ronmental policies that are supposed to mitigate environmen-
tal degradation (pollutant emissions level), heightened politi-
cal divides could pose as much economic and environmental
challenges. Rather, common goals acrosss party lines could
focus on implementing energy policies that would enhance
introduction of energy-saving technologies, adoption of re-
newable energy sources and economic growth policies in a
timely manner. Consequently, such policies are capapble of
preventing or reducung the impact of energy shocks that
might trigger a rise and continued consumption of nonrenew-
able energy sources and prolong environmental degradation.
As discussed earlier, the current political and policy dynam-
ics of the United States arising from the increasing partisanship
and expansion of partisan conflict (PC) are being perceived to
affect the country’s commitment to the international treaty on
climate action such as the Paris Agreement. The prevailing
policy and political atmosphere in the United States depict the
degree of polarization between the two major political parties of
the country. Evidently, the polarization between the Democratic
and the Republican Party will expectedly drive the partisan
conflict to the higher levels. The climate change policies of
the United States are not totally immune from the implication
of this characterized political polarization in the country.
Consequently, the impacts of environmental quality deter-
minants such as the income, measured by the Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) per capita, the fossil energy fuel energy con-
sumption (EUSE), and the renewable energy consumption
(RCON) are being examined over the period 1960–2015. In
order to present a decent argument that is viable for policy
implementation, the study adopts the combined methodolo-
gies of Johansen cointegration; the autoregressive distributed
lag (ARDL) model of Pesaran et al. (1999); and the Toda and
Yamamoto (1995) for Granger causality dynamics.2
In novelty, the current study incorporates partisan conflict
index (PCI) in the environmental sustainability model for the
first time, at least to the best of our knowledge. The PCI tracks
the extent of political differences among the politicians in the
2
Emphasis in this study is placed on empirical results rather than methodol-
ogies. Thus, discussions pertaining to methodologies and its equations were
omitted, since this study adopts methodologies that are well-known in litera-
ture. Interested readers that are not too familiar with these methodologies can
read up on the respective generic papers from the references list. Otherwise, it
will be made available upon request.
Environ Sci Pollut Res (2020) 27:10265–10274
United States, particularly at the federal level. The PCI was
generated via evaluating or gauging the persistence and fre-
quency of dailies (newspaper articles) divulging, particularly
within a month, the disagreement between these political
parties. High PCI values indicate an increased or high level
of conflict among the Congress, the political parties, and the
President of the United States (POTUS). In addition, the PCI
was developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Research. The PCI often rises when the elections are close in
the United States and most especially during debates over
divisive economic and environmental policy issues which
includes climate change, environmental pollution, budget
deficits, and foreign policies, among others. A previous
study by Azzimonti (2014) suggests that heighten PCI pro-
motes and widens uncertainty, which hurt or slow down eco-
nomic activities and performance via retarding consumer
spending and negatively affecting domestic or foreign invest-
ment and affecting businesses. However, data on renewable
energy, real GDP, and carbon dioxide emissions were sourced
from the World Bank Development Indicators (online) as
shown in Table 1.
Table 2 is the summary statistics of a metric ton per capita
of carbon emissions (CO2), the oil equivalent per capita ener-
gy consumed (EUSE), the income per capita (RGDP), the
partisan conflict index (PCI), and the renewable energy con-
sumption (RCON), respectively.3
Figure 1 above illustrates the graphical representations of
the series under observations for the United States. We ob-
served that the variables have been upward trending over the
study coverage, although the oil equivalent per capita of en-
ergy consumed and metric tons per capita of carbon emissions
experienced rapid decline toward the end of the period; how-
ever, partisan conflict index has been highly volatile, this ex-
presses the public polarization between the US major parties,
and it is expected to have an impact on policymakers and
government responses to macroeconomic shocks.
Model specification and slope parameters
expectation
The study functional form for the ARDL model is specified in
Eq. (1) as follows:
CO2t ¼ f ðEUSE t ; RGDPt ; RCON t ; PCI t Þ: ð1Þ
In order to reduce running to heterogeneity problems, we
rewrite Eq. (1) in natural logarithm, and this is reported below:
lnCO2t ¼ ∝0 þ ∝1 lnEUSEt þ ∝2 lnRGDPt þ ∝3 lnRCON t
þ ∝4 lnPCI 4 þ εt ð2Þ
3
For brevity and clarity, all variables are stationary at first difference, that is,
integrated at order one. The unit root table will be made available on request.
Environ Sci Pollut Res (2020) 27:10265–10274 10269

Table 1 Data sources/description

Indicators Symbol Unit of measurement Source

Real gross domestic product RGDP Constant 2010 (per capita) WDI
Energy consumption EUSE Oil equivalent per capita (Kg) WDI
Carbon emissions CO2 Metric ton per capita WDI
Partisan conflict index PCI Newspaper (Dailies) FRBPR
Renewable energy consumption RCON Renewable per capita WDI

Source: Authors’ compilation

where ∝ ′ s are the slope parameters and ε the unobserved var-
iables (error term). In a highly polarized and an industrialized
country such as of the United States, theoretically one should
expect slope parameter ∝1 to have a positive sign. This indi-
cates that an increase in oil equivalent per capita energy con-
sumed would enhance the metric tons per capita of CO2 emis-
sions positively and vice versa. In addition, it is expected that
in an industrialized economy like that of the United States,
where production (economic) activities are based on energy-
saving technologies and renewable energy sources, the slope
parameters ∝2 and ∝3 would have negative signs. This implies
that an increase in production activities via renewable energy
sources and energy-saving technologies would reduce metric
tons per capita CO2 emissions, provided that the United States
is conscious of its environmental quality and how it impacts
on its immediate and future generation. Lastly, the slope pa-
rameter ∝4 for partisan conflict is expected to directly or indi-
rectly impact on metric tons per capita CO2 emissions. This
indicates that heightened partisan conflict among the political
parties (Democrats and Republicans) would slow down
energy-saving technologies policies, cleaner environmental
policies (renewable energy sources), and interventions
programs and thereby enforces delay in the policymakers’
response to external shocks, thus, enhancing and deepening
environmental degradation of the sampled country.
Discussion of empirical results
In Sect. 4, we report study empirical estimations and subse-
quently discuss these results. For F-test estimation, it is re-
quired that the bound testing cointegration statistic be con-
ducted on the ARDL models that are chosen with suitable
lag length selection criteria, which includes the Akaike infor-
mation criterion (AIC) and the Schwarz information criterion
(SIC), among other forms of information criteria (see Table 3).
For this current study, the AIC with an optimal lag length of 1
is selected as reported in Table 3. The selection of an optimal
lag length is also significant for the adopted ARDL model.
We proceed to the ARDL model estimation as reported in
Table 5. In order to examine the existence of a long-run
cointegration equilibrium relationship between the variables,
we conduct the ARDL bound testing cointegration test statis-
tic. The results as reported in Table 3 (second part) depict that

Table 2 Summary statistics

CO2 EUSE RGDP PCI RCON

Mean 19.091 7421.164 23,602.73 82.392 5719.691

Median 19.334 7651.901 20,792.05 85.672 5961.866
Maximum 22.510 8438.403 56,803.47 143.790 9737.760
Minimum 15.681 5612.080 3007.123 39.362 2928.204
Std. Dev. 1.679 668.824 17,151.59 25.057 1702.630
Skewness −0.231 −1.173 0.404 0.235 0.451
Kurtosis 2.487 3.816 1.812 2.645 2.979
Jarque-Bera 1.111 14.409 4.821 0.809 1.900
Probability 0.573 0.000 0.089 0.667 0.386
Sum 1069.133 415,585.2 1,321,753. 4613.998 320,302.7
Sum Sq. Dev. 155.094 24,602,943 1.62E+10 34,534.25 1.59E+08
Observations 56 56 56 56 56

Note: The CO2 is the carbon dioxide vis-à-vis carbon emissions, EUSE is the energy consumption, RGDP is the
real gross domestic product, PCI is the partisan conflict index, and RCON is the renewable energy consumption.
Also, Std. Dev. is the standard deviation, and Sum Sq. Dev is the sum square deviation
10270 Environ Sci Pollut Res (2020) 27:10265–10274

Energy Use per Capita

CO2 8,500
6,000,000
8,000
5,600,000
5,200,000 7,500
4,800,000
7,000
4,400,000
4,000,000 6,500
3,600,000
6,000
3,200,000
2,800,000 5,500
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15

Total Ren Consumption

GDP per capita
10,000
60,000
9,000
50,000 8,000
40,000 7,000
6,000
30,000
5,000
20,000
4,000
10,000 3,000

0 2,000
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15

PCI
160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15
Fig. 1 Graphical plot of CO2t, EUSEt, RGDPt, RCONt,and PCIt

Table 3 Lag length and bound

testing cointegration results Lag LogL LR FPE AIC SC HQ

0 −1562.387 NA 3.400 61.466 61.655 61.538

1 −1263.194 527.987* 7.325* 50.713* 51.849* 51.147*
2 −1239.819 36.665 8.035 50.777 52.860 51.573
3 −1227.364 17.094 1.426 51.269 54.299 52.427
4 −1206.173 24.931 1.916 51.418 55.395 52.938
5 −1183.057 22.662 2.696 51.492 56.416 53.374
F-bound test Null hypothesis: no level relationship
Test statistic Value Signif. I(0) I(1)
Asymptotic: n = 1000
F-statistic 28.125*** 10% 2.37 3.2 10%
K 3 5% 2.79 3.67 5%
2.5% 3.15 4.08 2.5%
1% 3.65 4.66 1%

Note: Regressors are significant at *** 0.01% level

Environ Sci Pollut Res (2020) 27:10265–10274 10271

the bound testing long-run cointegration estimates are derived Table 4 Johansen cointegration results
via empirical estimations. Based on the results, we concluded Hypothesized Trace Max-
that there is an existence of a long-term equilibrium relation- Eigen
ship among the series. This is deducted from the estimated F-
statistic (28.125) that is found to be greater than the upper and No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Statistic
lower confidence interval (critical values) at all significance None* 0.375 81.894*** 69.818***
levels. This result is also confirmed via the Johansen At most 1* 0.363 56.491*** 47.856***
cointegration technique (see Table 4). Results as reported in At most 2* 0.273 32.058** 29.797**
Table 4 provided evidence for at least three cointegration vec- At most 3 0.202 14.817* 15.494*
tors among the series. Thus, we are of the opinion that these At most 4 0.046 2.576 3.841
variables move together in the long run.
Note: Regressors are significant at ***, **, and * 0.01, 0.05, and 0.101%
For sound empirical analysis and a better understand- levels
ing of how the stated empirical relationships between the
dependent variable (lnCO2t) and the explanatory variables
(determinants) work (lnEUSE t , lnRGDP t , lnRCON t , pollutant emissions level in the United States. This result
and lnPCIt), two empirical models were estimated. The corroborates with our earlier assertion that, although par-
reason behind having these two models is to provide ro- tisan conflict is necessary and also a sufficient condition
bust, reliable, and sound empirical models. As such, the in democratic settings. However, the heightened partisan
models help to show or understand channels through conflict will indirectly hurt or slow down the development
which heightened partisan conflict affects carbon emis- of energy and environmental policies that are supposed to
sions level by employing the ARDL bound testing tech- reduce or cut down environmental degradation (pollutant
nique in the case of the United States as shown in Table 5.
In Table 5 column 2, the “without PCI” empirical esti-
mations were reported. That is, we conducted the empir- Table 5 ARDL (1, 0, 0, 0) estimations results
ical analysis on how the explanatory variables (oil equiv- Regressors Without PCI With PCI
alent per capita energy consumed, income per capita, and
renewable energy consumption per capita) contribute to Long run Coeff. t-stat Coeff. t-stat
metric tons per capita of CO2 emissions generated without
lnEUSE 0.002*** (29.300) 0.002*** (7.843)
the impacts of partisan conflict in both the short run and
lnRGDP −2.840*** (−4.347) −1.911 (−0.903)
the long run in the case of United States. Empirical results
lnRCON −0.0002*** (−3.110) 4.650 (0.016)
as reported in Table 5 show that the explanatory variables
lnPCI −0.007 (−0.786)
are all statistically significant at a (p < 0.01) level. We
Constant 2.875*** (4.450) 2.506 (1.132)
found that a 1% increase in kg of oil equivalent per capita
of energy consumed would increase metric tons per capita ECT −0.797*** (12.321) −0.159*** (3.519)
CO2 emissions generated by 0.001% and 0.002% at a Short run
(p < 0.01) significance level both in the short and long ΔlnEUSE 0.001*** (10.361) 0.002*** (16.446)
run. In addition, a 1% increase in income per capita and ΔlnRGDP −2.270 ***
(−4.084) −3.040 (−0.744)
renewable energy consumption would decrease metric ΔlnRCON −0.001*** (−3.121) 7.410 (0.026)
tons per capita CO 2 emissions generated by (2.840% ΔlnPCI −0.004 (−0.278)
and 0.0002%) and (2.270% and 0.001%) at a (p < 0.01) Constant 2.292*** (4.273) 0.399 (0.936)
significance level in both the short and the long run. R2 0.968 0.987
The reverse is the case under the “with PCI” empirical R2 adjusted 0.965 0.986
estimation results reported in Table 5 column 3. The result F-stat 384.074*** 643.396***
shows that, with the introduction of partisan conflict in- Coeff. p value
dex, all other explanatory variables, except kg of oil Diagnostic Tests:
equivalent per capita energy consumed, are statistically Serial correlation 1.231 (0.301)
insignificant at all significance levels. From the perspec- Functional form 1.066 (0.307)
tive of the current study, it appears that the PCI does not Normality 0.809 (0.667)
directly impact on environmental degradation, as the var- Heteroscedasticity 0.842 (0.558)
iable is statistically insignificant. However, the heightened
Note: Regressors are significant at *** 0.01% level. Also, ln is the loga-
partisan conflict would indirectly affect policies such as rithmic of the lnEUSE (the energy consumption), RGDP (real gross do-
production activities, renewable energy policies, and other mestic product), PCI (partisan conflict index), and RCON (renewable
environmental policies that have potentials to reduce energy consumption)
10272
emissions level). Consequently, heightened partisan con-
flict delays policy mechanisms that enhance the design
and implementation of energy policies that are capable
of enhancing the development of energy-saving technolo-
gies. This observation is in line with other conceptual
studies and presentations that have linked the heightened
partisanship in the United States to the subject of climate
change (Van Boven et al. 2018; Brookings 2019).
Furthermore, the error correction term (ECTt − 1) also
shows interesting results. It is a term that shows the speed of
adjustment from the short-run (lnCO2t) to long-run equilibri-
um path succeeding a shock within a year. The estimated
(ECTt − 1), the coefficient, is negative in both the “without
PCI” (0.797) and the “with PCI” (0.159) at (p < 0.01) level.
We observed that the departure from the long-run equilibrium
path of the environmental degradation is rapidly corrected by
79.7% annually without the PCI but slowly corrected by
15.9% annually with the introduction of PCI in the CO2 emis-
sion model. In addition, significant (ECTt − 1) supports the
presence of stable long-run equilibrium relations among de-
pendent and its explanatory variables. While the high value of
the coefficient of determinations in both ECM-ARDL estima-
tion models (R2 = 0.968 and 0.987 → 1) shows that the speed
of adjustment of the ARDL is significantly robust in the short
run. Lastly, we found the joint significance of the model via
estimated F-statistic in both models (384.074 and 643.396) to
be statistically significant at a (p < 0.01) level.
In addition, we carry out diagnostic (sensitivity check) tests
on empirical results reported in Table 5. This is done to con-
firm reliability, robustness, and soundness of the CO2 emis-
sion equation via an ARDL model. We observed that for the
fitted model, the non-rejection and the null hypothesis provide
evidence that the study model is a serial correlation and
heteroscedasticity-free, normally distributed, and the function-
al form of the model is suitable for the empirical analysis at a
(p < 0.05) significance level.
Furthermore, to confirm the model stability, we conduct a
time-series stability test. Graphical plots of CUSUM and
CUSUMSQ of recursive residuals are reported in Fig. 2. As
observed, the graphical plots of the CUSUM and its squared
30
20
10
0 0.6
-10
-20
-30
65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05
CUSUM 5% Significance
Fig. 2 The CUSUM and CUSUM of squares of stability test for the robustness model
Environ Sci Pollut Res (2020) 27:10265–10274
test statistics fell in between the critical bounds at (p < 0.05)
significance level. This is an indication that the ARDL model
specified for the empirical analysis is stable, robust, and reli-
able for policy recommendations considering that all the pa-
rameter estimates go along with stable structure over time.
Lastly, we conduct the Granger causality tests via
Toda and Yamamoto (1995) causality technique to ex-
amine whether the series sampled in this current study
are useful predictor of one another, i.e., whether one
particular time series, let us say variable X, is useful
in forecasting changes (either increase or decrease) in
another time series, let us say Y.
Results as reported in Table 6 row 1 show that kg of oil
equivalent per capita energy consumed and income per capita
are useful predictor of a decrease or increase in metric tons of
per capita CO2 emissions generated, while renewable energy
consumption and partisan conflict may not necessarily or di-
rectly predict changes in metric tons of per capita CO2 emis-
sions generated over the sampled period. However, if all
things being equal, changes in the explanatory variables
would predict an increase or decrease in environmental deg-
radation. In addition, Table 6 row 2 indicates that income per
capita is a useful predictor of changes in kg of oil equivalent
energy consumed (see Saint Akadiri et al. 2019a, b), while
changes in kg oil equivalent of energy consumed, CO2 emis-
sions, renewable energy consumption, and partisan conflict
may not necessarily predict changes in economic growth
(Table 6, row 3) and renewable energy consumption
(Table 6, row 4) without certain policies in place. Lastly, we
found that delay in executing policies that would promote
renewable energy consumption is a useful predictor of chang-
es (whether heightened or moderate partisan conflict in the
case of the United States).
Concluding remarks and policy suggestions
The prevailing policy and political atmosphere in the United
States depict the degree of polarization between the two major
political parties of the country. Evidently, the polarization
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
10 15 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15
CUSUM of Squares 5% Significance
Environ Sci Pollut Res (2020) 27:10265–10274 10273

Table 6 Toda and Yamamoto

(1995) Granger causality results Regressors

Dependent Var. lnCO2 lnEUSE lnRGDP lnRCON lnPCI Overall

lnCO2 – 5.762** 6.530** 1.206 1.648 25.138***

p value – (0.046) (0.038) (0.547) (0.438) (0.001)
lnEUSE 3.710 – 7.932** 1.878 1.938 27.044***
p value (0.156) – (0.018) (0.390) (0.379) (0.000)
lnRGDP 2.845 1.043 – 0.405 4.234 26.825***
p value (0.241) (0.593) – (0.816) (0.120) (0.000)
lnRCON 2.152 3.414 1.309 – 1.352 7.323
p value (0.340) (0.181) (0.519) – (0.508) (0.502)
lnPCI 3.572 3.682 4.059 8.568** – 29.158***
p value (0.167) (0.158) (0.131) (0.013) – (0.000)

Note *** and ** depict significance at 0.01 and 0.05% level.

between the Democratic Party (DP) and the Republican Party
will expectedly drive the partisan conflict to the higher levels.
Considering this motivation, this paper examined the role of
partisan conflict in the pollutant emissions in the case of the
United States. For sound empirical analysis, the impacts of
other environmental quality determinants such as the income
(proxied by the gross domestic product per capita (GDP)), the
fossil energy fuel energy consumption (EUSE), and the re-
newable energy consumption (RCON) are being examined
over the period 1960–2015. In order to present a decent argu-
ment that is viable for policy implementation, the study adopts
the combined methodologies of Johansen cointegration; the
autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) of Pesaran et al.
(1999); and the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) Granger
causality.
Empirical outcomes show the following interesting re-
sults: (i) the positive and statistical significance of the kg
oil equivalent per capita energy consumed shows that en-
ergy consumption is the principal determinant of environ-
mental degradation in both the short run and the long run;
thus, environmental degradation in the United States is
energy-induced. Thus, energy conservation policy might
be a useful tool in curbing pollutant, as the nation is not
an energy-dependent economy as observed in the neutral-
ity hypothesis between energy consumption and economic
growth. Thus, enforcing energy conservation policies to
cut down pollutant emissions would not hurt economic
performance in both the short and the long run. (ii)
Results show renewable energy consumption and eco-
nomic growth exercise negative and significant impacts
on metric tons of per capita CO 2 emissions. Thus,
enforcing renewables and energy-saving technologies in
economic activities and production processes as an alter-
native measure to fossil fuel-dependent technologies are
workable energy and sustainable environmental policy
tools that any nation with high record of pollutant
emissions, especially the United States, should uphold to
curb pollutant emissions and promote sustainable environ-
mental policy for the immediate and the future generation.
(iii) Lastly, although partisan conflict is necessary and
sufficient for sound functioning of democracy, heightened
conflict between the political parties would incapacitate
economic growth and renewable energy policies that are
meant to curb pollutant emissions and, in addition, delay
the policymakers’ response to external and energy shocks
in a timely manner, thereby drawing back responses to
energy shocks that might trigger a rise and continued con-
sumption of nonrenewable energy sources and prolong
environmental degradation.
Conclusively, based on our empirical findings, partisan
conflict indirectly plays a significant role in designing, formu-
lating, and executing energy and environmental quality policy,
especially for the case of the United States. As pointed out
earlier, partisan conflict might appear to be necessary for a
sound functioning of democracy; however, heightened parti-
san conflict among the political parties might incapacitate
economic growth. Consequently, the decline of economic
growth causes investment downturn (see Azzimonti 2014),
discourages capital inflows in terms of foreign and private
investment (see Azzimonti 2018), and promotes income in-
equality (see Balcilar et al. 2019). In addition, this study re-
veals that the impact of heightened partisan conflict if not
curtailed can go a long way in incapacitating energy and en-
vironmental policies. This is because policymakers’ decisions
are capable of inducing energy and environmental shocks in
both the short and the long run in the United States (Dunlap
and McCright 2008; Dunlap et al. 2016). Thus, the govern-
ment should avoid heightened partisan conflict among the
political parties in order to promote sustainable economic,
energy, and environmental policies that would enhance overall
economic growth and development for both the immediate
and the future generation.
10274
Acknowledgements We would like to appreciate AVIOLA Consult ltd
for it quality proofreading service (https://www.aviolaconsultltd.com e-
mail: auproperty@hotmail.com). Also, thanks to sheytex logistics and
Services (https://www.sheytexlogistics.com) for both the paper
formatting and significant input on the econometric analysis.
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