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The Economist UK 9 Dec
The Economist UK 9 Dec
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International
SS The latest PISA results Culture
75 The best books of 2023
77 Staff books in 2023
79 Johnson Word of the year
Business
57 Green-power blues Economic & financial indicators
59 Big oil's methane deal 81 Statistics on 42 economies
60 Europe's sturdy startups
61 Advertisers' X-odus Obituary
61 China's vanishing 82 Sandra Day O'Connor, a cowgirl at the Supreme Court
- chairmen
62 Bartleby What's wrong
with Mondays?
64 Schumpeter Musk, the
messiah
-
Volume 449 Number 9375
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s The world this week Politics The Economist December gth 2023
The death toll rose from flood- The Republicans' majority in imperils those few gay organi-
ing in Tanzania. Some 300 America's House of Repre- sations that have dared to still
people in east Africa have died sentatives narrowed to just operate in Russia.
recently, half of them in Kenya, three, when George Santos was
in floods and landslides relat- expelled as a member, only the Germany's coalition govern-
ed to the El Nifio climate pat- sixth congressman ever to ment scrambled to resolve a
tern, which is causing unusu- meet that fate, amid charges of budget crisis caused by the
ally heavy rains in the region. unlawful conduct. A special Constitutional Court striking
election will be held in his down its spending plans
Nigeria's air force killed at marginal Long Island district. because they increased the
least 85 civilians when it Meanwhile Kevin McCarthy, federal debt. The government
mistakenly bombed a religious who was ousted as speaker in has been left with a spending
Israel brought its fight against gathering in the northern state October, said he would leave shortfall of €6obn ($65bn) for
Hamas to southern Gaza, of Kaduna. The government the House by the end of the this year, and time is running
encircling Khan Younis, where has been battling jihadists and year. He represents a safe out to present a revised
Hamas has consolidated its armed groups of bandits, who Republican seat in California. budget to parliament.
position after losing control of have terrorised large parts of
northern Gaza. Israeli war- the north. Republicans in the American Police in the Philippines said
planes stepped up their born- Senate blocked a bill to provide that two supporters of Islamic
bardment of the Palestinian Nicolas Maduro, Venezuela's more military support to State were suspected of being
strip. The fighting resumed autocratic president, held a Ukraine. The legislation be- behind the bombing of a
after the collapse of a week- referendum asking voters if came entangled in a row over Catholic mass in the city of
long ceasefire, which America they wanted to annex two- migration, as the Republicans Marawi, killing four people. In
and Israel blamed on Hamas thirds of neighbouring tied their support for the bill to 2017 a pro-Is group took
for breaking its promise to Guyana, which has benefited stricter border measures, command of Marawi for five
release more hostages, firing from discoveries of huge oil which Democrats rejected. months as it battled the
rockets while the truce was in reserves. The exercise was Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine's country's army, which
place and killing civilians in an skewed in favour of a yes vote president, cancelled a speech eventually regained control.
attack in Jerusalem. With as there was no official "no" to Congress via video link
battles raging in the area where campaign. The electoral au- amid the row. Before the vote
Gazans had sought shelter, thority claimed that over 10m the White House's budget
concerns grew about civilian people voted, an unlikely director warned that cutting
casualties. Hospitals are said figure, given that few were aid would "kneecap Ukraine
to be running low on fuel and seen at polling-stations. Even on the battlefield".
medical supplies. so, Brazil sent troops and 16
armoured vehicles to the The European Union's home
America imposed visa sane- border with Venezuela. affairs commissioner warned
tions on extremist Israeli
settlers who are involved in - of a "huge risk" of terrorists
carrying out attacks in the
attacks on Palestinians in the I'm away from my desk region over the Christmas
West Bank. Antony Blinken, Nayib Bukele stepped back period. Ylva Johansson was
America's secretary of state, from the presidency of speaking after a supporter of At least 22 climbers were
has pressed the Israeli govern- El Salvador to campaign for Islamic State stabbed a man to killed when Indone-
ment to do more to hold set- elections in February. The death and wounded two other sia's Mount Marapi volcano
tiers who commit violence country's constitution bars a people near the Eiffel Tower in erupted. The volcano emitted
accountable for their actions. second consecutive term, but Paris. He had previously served a 3km-high cloud, covering
the Bukele-appointed Supreme time in prison for plotting nearby villages in ash.
Vladimir Putin visited Saudi
Arabia and the United Arab
Court ruled in 2021 that he
could run again if he was out of
another attack. Ms Johansson
said the conflict in Gaza was -
Emirates, where he discussed the post for six months before polarising society, and in- Finding a place to stay
oil (Russia is a big contributor the inauguration, which takes creasing the risk of terrorism. Britain's ruling Conservatives
to OPEC+) and business (the place on June 1st. Mr Bukele were embroiled in fresh tur-
UAE is a hub for Russian busi- has left his secretary in charge. America signed a defence moil, after the immigration
ness dealings). Mr Putin was co-operation agreement with minister resigned in protest
also set to meetlran's presi- Javier Milei, a libertarian econ- Sweden, describing the coun- against an emergency bill that
dent, Ebrahim Raisi, in Mos- omist who takes office as try as a "strong, capable classifies Rwanda as a safe
cow. Iran supplies drones to Argentina's president on defence partner that champi- country in order to send
Russia for its war on Ukraine. December 10th, selected most ons NATO's values". The Hun- illegal migrants there. The
of his cabinet. The appoint- garian and Turkish parlia- minister said the bill did not
The military junta in Niger ments of Luis Caputo as econ- ments have still not ratified go far enough in deterring
scrapped its military part- omy minister and Santiago Sweden's NATO membership. migration; the government
nership with the European Bausili as central bank chief, insisted it tackled the recent
Union, which had been help- two technocrats from a former The EU criticised the Russian objections to the policy raised
ing it fight against jihadists. centre-right administration, Supreme Court's decision to by Britain's Supreme Court.
Niger's defence ministry said signalled that Mr Milei's flag- outlaw the "international LGBT Rumours swirled that the bill
his country wants closer mil- ship plan of dollarisation public movement" for sup- might turn into a confidence
itary co-operation with Russia. would be put on hold. posed extremism. The ruling vote on the government.
ByteDance has offered to buy acquired almost two decades attractive. Gold, another asset scheme took their toll on
back stock from investors, ago. The conglomerate is that does well when interest personal finances.
-
according to reports, in a writing off $1.3bn from the rates are lower, hit a record
proposal that values the owner male shaving-and-grooming high of $2,135 a troy ounce. Spotify decided to cut 1,500
of the TikTok and Douyin business in the current quar jobs, its third and largest
platforms somewhere between ter, which comes on top of the round of lay-offs this year. The
$26obn and $268bn. That is $8bn it wrote down in 2019. S&P 500 music-streaming giant
1941-43=10
about 10% less than what the Gillette has struggled to com admitted that it hired too
5,000
firm was reportedly worth a pete against razor-sharp mar many employees in 2020 and
year ago in a separate buy-back keting from upstarts such as 4,500 2021 when it "took advantage
plan. ByteDance is still the Dollar Shave Club and Harry's. of the opportunity presented
world's most valuable startup
and one of the most valuable - 4,000
3,500
by lower-cost capital", but it
thanked those who were being
firms in China. It has toyed Return to never-ever land ..l\r shown the door for "sharing
with listing on the Hong Kong Disney was forced to defend • 11 I I I I I I I I I 11 I I I I I I I I I I•
your talents with us".
-
2022 2023
stockmarket several times. its business strategy, after Source: LSEG Workspace
Nelson Peltz launched a fresh
Meanwhile, a federal judge proxy fight to gain a seat on the The bullish mood on rate cuts Virtual reality
imposed an injunction against company's board. In February spurred investors to push up After being warned about
Montana's statewide ban on Mr Peltz's hedge fund, Trian stockmarkets. On December "greenwashing" , companies
TikTok. The ban was supposed Partners, backed down from its 1st the S&P 500 and the Dow are now being told not to
to come into force in January, battle to get a board seat, say Jones industrial average closed engage in AI-washing, or
but the judge found that Mon ing that Disney's restructuring at their highest points this year claiming a product or service
tana was focused on "targeting plan, which included 7,000 job (though they fell back in sub has been created with artificial
China's ostensible role in losses, did "everything we sequent trading). The NASDAQ intelligence when it has not.
TikTok", and that foreign poli wanted them to do". But Mr composite has not been as Gary Gensler, the chairman of
cy "is not an important Monta Peltz now says that, since buoyant these past few weeks, America's Securities and
na state interest". The ban had giving Disney the opportunity but it has still risen by more Exchange Commission,
been challenged by TikTok and to "right the ship", share than 35% this year. reminded firms that by law
free-speech advocates. Monta holders have lost $7obn in they are required to make
na described the injunction as value. Disney responded by Australia's economy grew by "truthful" disclosures regard
"a preliminary matter" in an saying it is in the middle of a 2.1% in the third quarter on an ing their use of AI. Examples
ongoing process in which it "significant transformation" . annual basis, but was just 0.2% abound, but include a business
would present "a complete bigger than over the previous that falsely claimed it had used
legal argument" to the court. The price of bitcoin surged three months. The quarter-on "AI machine learning" to maxi
past $44,000, its highest level quarter rate came in below mise revenues (some investors
China has started operating in 20 months. It was boosted forecasts and was the slowest lost their life savings) and a
the world's first "fourth-gener in part by investors betting pace in a year. Household startup that said it deployed AI
ation" nuclear reactor, that central banks will cut spending was flat in the Lucky to develop mobile apps (the
according to state media. The interest rates next year, which Country, as inflation, interest work was mostly done by staff
coastal plant in China's makes riskier assets more rates and the end of a tax-offset in India).
Shandong province generates
power through a HTR- PM
high-temperature, gas-cooled
reactor, based on a modular
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China has added 37 nuclear �� '\:r1 � � � �
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Brita i n
A s A HORSE race, the contest to be the Republican Party's candidates: Mr Desantis and Nikki Haley, a former governor of
nominee for president is as much of a walkover as they South Carolina who served as Mr Trump's ambassador to the U N .
come. Donald Trump has been far ahead all year, and his lead has M s Haley has been on something o f a roll. I n the absence of
steadily lengthened. As our new poll tracker shows, the gap be Mr Trump, she has stood out in candidate debates (calling Mr Ra
tween the former president and his closest challenger, Ron De maswamy "scum" in Miami last month), and predictably came
santis, Florida's governor, has grown from 14 percentage points under attack from the diminished field of just three rivals at the
to a seemingly unassailable 51 points (see United States section). latest one on December 6th. "I love all the attention, fellas," s he
With Iowa's big night less than six weeks away, it looks all over said. She has won the endorsement of the wealthy political net
bar the caucusing. And if he wins his party's nomination, Mr work founded by the Koch brothers. According to our poll track
Trump would have a good chance of returning to the White er, she has risen to within one percentage point of Mr Desantis,
-
House. Analysts at home and abroad are rightly starting to get at 11% to the Florida governor's 12 %. Betting markets suggest that
their minds round what a second Trump term might mean. she has already overtaken him, with on average a 13% chance of
H owever, just as in a horse race, the prim winning the nomination, compared with j ust
aries' front-runner can stumble, or be tripped US, Republican primaries 2024 6% for the wooden, unconvincing M r Desantis.
up by the voters in Iowa and New Hampshire. In Polling with Tru mp excluded, 2023, % However, Florida's governor still has some
Mr Trump's case, his legal troubles-including 50 running in him. His dismal form for most of the
four criminal trials and 91 felony charges 25
---........
�
- Desantis year has meant that his support has slumped by
could start to look like a threat in the general Ramaswamy
__,,,.
Haley more than 20 points. But he mustered a com
election. Concerns over candidates' ability to 0 � Christie
----.,-, bative performance in another recent televised
last the course have understandably centred on J F M A M J J A S O N debate, this time with Gavin Newsom, the
the 81-year-old, gaffe-prone President Joe Ei- Democratic governor of California. And, in
den. But the more vigorous-looking Mr Trump is only four years triguingly, our tracker shows him well ahead of Ms Haley in the
younger and you cannot rule out that a health scare will afflict polling of Republican voters' second preferences-the candi
such a short-fused burger enthusiast. Momentum in politics date they would favour should Mr Trump drop out. Those polls
can change, and a dead-cert can suddenly start losing ground. suggest that, were that to happen, Mr Desantis would pick up
For all these reasons, although the nomination looks like Mr much of the former president's support, giving him more than
Trump's to lose, it is worth keeping an eye on the race far behind double the backing of Ms H aley.
him. Contenders have started to drop out, including Mike Pence, The tussle far behind Mr Trump looks like a sideshow, given
Mr Trump's former vice-president. A fresher face, Vivek Rama his commanding lead. But if he falters, the Republican primary
swamy, an entrepreneur, managed a mini-spurt over the sum is not the only one that would suddenly become compelling. Mr
mer but has since fallen back. As the field narrows, it is becom Eiden let slip at a fundraising event this week that "If Trump
ing more interesting. Heading towards election year, the strug wasn't running, I'm not sure I'd be running." Rarely are pres
gle to be Mr Trump's main challenger is between two credible idential races so certain and so uncertain at the same time. ■
Gensler v Griffin
By bashing hedge funds, America's regulators could cost taxpayers money
► banks, which h ave the securi ty of the b o n d i f they a re not paid long-te rm bonds w hi c h h ave fall e n i n val u e as inte rest rates
back. Instead the chief worry i s that a fai l u re o f a l a rge hedge have risen. At the e nd of September the Fed 's mark-to-m a rket
fund could set o ff a rep eat of the "dash for cash" at the s tart o f the losses on its p ortfolio of Treasuries stood at nearly $8oob n . U lti
covi d-19 pandemic , in which i nvestors d umped Treasuries; or mately, these losses p ass through to the Treasury.
the doom l oo p tha t s truck Britai n's bond mar ke t i n S epte mber
2 022 , i n which fal l i n g bond prices forced pension funds to sell First, do no harm
bonds , furth e r pushing down prices. These fire sales were re Pro vi d ed central banks get i n and out of the m a rket quickly,
solve d o nly when central ban kers b ought bonds at s cale. though, there is nothing u ntoward about stopping fi re s al es o f
The i nterve ntions were d ra matic, but they did n o t expose sovere ign d ebt. Indeed , knowing central banke rs c a n act should
taxpayers to m u c h danger. U n l i ke l ending to banks o r fi rms, create a m o re liquid market, which wil l hel p keep bond
public d ebt bought by central banks does not i nvolve c redit risk yield s l ow and well -behaved . U n fortu n ately s o m e of t h e rules
for taxpayers , who become both borrower and l ender. Fire sales p ro posed by M r Gensler making b orrowing for hedge funds
caus ed by fi n ancial rather tha n fundame n tal facto rs i n effect re m o re expensive by impos i ng h a i rcuts o n their c o llateral woul d
s u l t in the central bank b uying back government bonds on the d o the o pposite. I f i t becomes too c ostly for hedge fun d s t o trade,
cheap. The Bank o f E ngland made a £ 3 .8bn ($4.8bn) p ro fit on its the interest expenses o n $26trn o f outstanding d ebt wil l ris e ov
p u rc hases, a return o f 2 0 % i n a m atter o f month s . er time. The status quo is not perfe ct; s o m e o f the ideas for re
The trouble comes when central banks fail to contain the form, such as replacing the m arket's intermediaries with a cen
panic o r s tay in the market long afte r it has s tabilised . After the tralised exchange, h ave merit. But whe n playing with vast s u ms
dash for cash , ce ntral banks' goals s witched from fi nancial sta it is not j u s t hedge funds that can m a ke e rrors. Regu lators must
bil ity to monetary stimulus. They a massed huge portfolios o f tread with care, too. ■
Power trip
Expanding renewable-energy capacity is becoming worryingly hard
I F T H E WO R L D is to d ecarbonise, the n mo re c l ea n energy is opment is happening i n the global south, even though the d e
needed , fast. Nearly eve ryon e at the U N 's an nual cli mate s u m mand for electricity there is s urgi ng. I nves to rs want a p re mi u m
mit, which is being held i n Dubai , seems to agree with the senti w h e n putting mo ney t o work i n emergi ng markets. One fix is to
me nt: delegate s fro m 118 cou ntries have pledged to raise gl obal ble nd in govern ment funding that takes on s o m e of the risk.
re newable-energy c apacity to 11, 0 0 0 gigawatts (GW) by 2030, u p That is the idea behi nd the Just Energy Transition Partners hips,
from 3, 400GW last year. B u t t h e tas k o f adding roughly 1, oooGW which Western govern ments have set u p over the past two years ,
eve ry year-al most as much as the enti re generating capacity of and the $ 3obn climate fu nd annou nced b y t h e U nited A rab E mi r
A merica- looks increas i ngly daunti ng. ates on Decembe r 1st. Yet the sums i nvolved remain too small,
D es pite record i nvestment in renewab les i n the fi rs t half of and earl ier deals have been bes et by backs liding and delays .
the year, the industry is under s train (see Bus i ness section) . A last obstacle is protectionism, which raises costs a n d
-
Wind-tu rbine s u pp ly c hains have s truggled as manufactu rers threatens s hortages. Solar p a n e l s are a lready m o re t h a n twice a s
rus hed out bigger and more powerful models. Last month Sie expens ive i n America as elsewhere, mostly owing t o anti-d u m p-
m e ns E nergy was res cued by a loan guarante e i ng d utie s o n Chinese s u p pliers. From June
from t h e Germ an governm e nt. Rising costs , Global ren ewa ble energy 2 024, thos e duties will also a p p ly to s o m e
caused partly b y higher i nterest rates, have l ed I nstalled ca pacity, terawatts South-East A s i a n s u ppliers deemed to b e redi
12
d evelo pers to aba n d o n once-profitabl e p ro 11 recting C hinese p roducts. The I nflation Reduc
Ca pacity required to 9
j ects. Five o ffs h o re-wind d evelop ments h ave �� tion Act incentivises the use o f pricier h o me
reach 2030 goa I � 6
been cancelled in America this year. 3 made components even though their make rs
There is a bigger p roblem, too. At a m eagre will struggle to s up p ly enough o f them (see Fi
I I I I I j I I I I j I I I I I ii I I j I I I I I I I I I I
6%, the average retu rn on capital for solar and 2000 05 1 0 1 5 20 25 30 nance & economics section) .
win d d evelo pe rs will not e n tice the $ 8trn or so A merica is not alone. Last month the Euro
o f i nvestment n eeded over the rest o f this decade t o honour the pean Parliament passed the Net Zero I ndustry Act, which sets
11, oooGW p l edge. One obstacle is slow approval , which delays domestic-content thresholds for bidders in public auctions. The
p rojects for years and can needl essly tie u p capita l , l owering re E u ropean Commission is considering i nvestigating Chi nes e
turns . In S e ptember, in a bid to s p eed u p p ermits , the E u ropean turbine-makers , w h i c h i t s ees as a threat t o local industry be
Parliament designated the d evelo p ment of renewabl es to be of cause their wares are much c h eaper. I ndia, too, plans to tighten
"overri d i ng public inte rest". Yet s uc h d i ktats h ave not worked i n local-content rules for solar p rojects .
t h e p as t; Euro pean Union rul es a lready require permitting to Rather tha n m i c ro ma naging p ro duction, governments
take no l o nger tha n two years, a l i mi t that member states often should u n leash i nvestment, by acting boldly to s trip back p er
b reac h . Reforms to federa l p ermittin g h ave been p ro posed in mitting rules and ease the ris k of p roj ects i n the glob a l south.
A merica, but wil l d o little to ease delays at the s tate or local l eve l . They also need to face u p to the fact that p ro tectionism frus
B etter to streamline a p p rovals across a l l tiers of government. trates their climate g oa l s . It leads to lower returns, higher p rices
A no ther obs tacl e is that, n ot counti ng C h i na, too little <level- for p ower a nd m o re b ro ke n p romises over decarb on is ati o n . ■
B s I , Swi
To I o .b .o
02
me
U q u e Access o Co nfi
lo do c. c.n 20 72
- Reali sing this, Robert own hands. Both Labour and S hopify's approach , and noted
Sol a r geoengi neering Kaplan and Karthik Ramanna the government would do wel l that the company's mass
Your article on the push to proposed i n 2021 an auditable to accept the recommendation deletion of recurring email s at
develop solar geoengineering accounting system for carbon of Lord Maude i n his recent the start of this year resulted in
was remiss in failing to high- emissions. I DG Group, which review of the civil service and a reported 14% drop in
l ight the biggest risk of the provides security services to separate the budget functions meetings and a bump i n
technology: the shock o f the U N , h as piloted the system of the Treasu ry into a separate p roductivity. However, in May
terminating it ("Darkening the in Afghanistan, of all places. department, as has hap pened Shopify cut its workforce
sun", November 25th) . Carbon We h ave found that even the in America, Australia, Canada by 20% and offloaded its
dioxide, once released into the challenges in that cou ntry and New Zealand . logistics arm. Fewer workers
atmosphere, has a warming aren't a barrier to adopting The Treasury's overbearing should translate i nto fewer
effect that spans millennia, Messrs Kaplan's and Raman- power is only one manifesta- gatherings. Suddenly Shopify's
whereas even stratospheric na's system, which they h ave tion of the hyper-central- reduction in meetings looks
particles fal l out of the atmo- called "e-liability". isation that afflicts the British less impressive.
sphere after a year or two. That We now have an approach state. Britain's economic ROS S W H I T E
means that if one comes to rely to produce aud itable figures fu ndamentals are no worse Atla n ta
on solar geoengineering to
prevent a dangerous level of
for the carbon costs of the
services we provide to the U N .
than its European peers , yet
from regional transport to -
warming, one is committing The accu racy, particularly of housebuild ing, it performs Double Dutch
humanity to maintaining the our upstream Scope 3 data, will poorly. Grappling with these You trans lated bestaanszeker-
deployment flawlessly over increase once our su pply chain problems requires end ing the heid to mean "income securi-
untold futu re generations, lest also uses this system. It is not entrenched centralisation of ty" in Dutch ("The good gad-
a cessation in the process leads burd ensome to adopt. It works British decision-making and fly", November 19th) . You r
t o a catastrophic rapid warm- the same way as accounting for fiscal power. If breaking up a translation is broadly right,
ing. And if deployment is used supply-chain fi nancial costs govern ment department is too but "certainty of existence"
as an excuse to continue emit- and requires no special soft- difficult, what hope is there for would be a more accurate
ting carbon, which is a prob- ware or retraining of staff. more ambitious reform? mean ing. Some Dutch words
able consequence of human When this au ditable system J AM E S WI LSO N are nearly impossible to con-
nature, each year wou ld re- becomes the accepted global Ca n berra vert to Engl ish, but the politi-
quire a greater degree of solar
geoengineering, incurring an
stand ard for carbon declara-
tion, investors and decision- - cal mean ing of besta a nszeker-
heid is so equivocal that even
ever-increasing magnitude of makers will have the actual It's fu n to h ave a confa b Dutch people have little idea
potential termination shock. data that Mr Carney identifies The only thing worse than what it actually means .
Some proponents say that as the critic al first step to bad ly run meetings is some- RO E LO F B RE U K I N K
sucking carbon out o f the air enable action and investment. body who doesn't stop corn- Utrech t, Netherla nds
will save us from a dangerous
millennial commitment, but
Without it, the guessing and
greenwashing wi ll continue.
plaining about them. Bartleby
has a long-stand ing gripe with -
to rely on such technology to IAN G O R DO N meetings (November 18th) , but Privy cou nsel
provide an exit strategy before Chair never thinks about how great Xi Jin ping could resolve a lot of
it exists at anyth ing like the I DG Group they can be. Meetings are a his "toilet revolution"
required scale is the height of D u ba i chance for great minds to problems ("Bogged down",
foolishness. Proponents also
play the "it's only research" - commiserate about the d rud-
gery of their everyday l ives.
November nth) by adopting a
solution in the Santo Antonio
card , but neglect the fact that The power of the m a ndari n s They are an opportu nity to d istrict in the heart of Lisbon.
much of the proposed research The solutions you proposed to coalesce into a greater whole. A few months ago the old
develops the technology for the British Treasury's short- And they give co-workers a u nderground loos near the
deployment, and once the termism are themselves short- chance to share a smile and main square were transformed
technology is out in the wild, it termist ("Treasury island", find that maybe, just maybe, into a concert hal l , seating just
will not be the researchers , November 18th) . Previous they have something in corn- 12 people, and a gallery. The
however well intentioned, attempts to make Britai n's mon . Instead of thought lead- name given to this reincarna-
who will control the decision finances focus on the long- ers haranguing us to "start on tion of a p ublic lavatory was
about deployment. term have all been, at best, time and finish on time", why we 10m3 . After attending a
RAYMO N D T. P I E RR E H UM B E RT only partly successful. Five- not remind your readers that recent concert I suggested that
Professor of physics yearly spend i ng reviews hap- meetings are a n opportunity to they might want to consider
University of Oxford pen more than once every five bri ng work and life together, to renaming it "The Loovre" to
- years; the budget's welfare cap
was breached, then fi ddled
turn that ti resome nine-to-five
into somethi ng more.
attract more customers (I've
yet to hear back) .
Acco u nti ng for e m i ssions with, then redesigned; " fixed" C H R I S RYAN H E N RY A D L E R
Mark Carney correctly identi- departmental budgets are I nsura nce defence counsel L isbon
fies data as the first i n his l ist rai ded to pay for other Calgary, Can ada
of priorities for tackli ng car- priorities (the former
bon emissions (By I nvitation, Department for I nternational I have greatly enjoyed the Letters a re welcome a nd shou ld be
November 24th) . Data must be Development being the most podcast series "Boss Class" by a d d ressed to the Ed itor a t
The Economist, The Adelphi B u i ld i ng,
verifiable. In financial terms high-profile example) . the Bartleby columnist. The 1-11 J o h n Ada m Street, London WC2N 6 H T
that means data must be audit- The Treasury i s s imply too episode on running better Email: letters@eco nomist.com
able, which the carbon-data powerful, and has proved that meetings was particularly M o re letters are ava i la bl e at:
Econ omist.corn/letters
declaratio n process isn't. it cannot be trusted to tie its intriguing. It h ighlighted
► ber of refugees would be allowed to return it is described i n other terms, such as "two
Pa lestin ians
from almost h a l f just five years ago (see such a push. "Gantz has some very, very
chart) . "Every failed process has a price right-wing people i n there," says Dan Ben
tag," says Nimrod Novik, who was a for Israel i Jews David of the Shoresh Institute, an Israeli
--••
eign-policy adviser to Shimon Peres, an Is think-tank. The same goes for some of his
One democratic state
with equ a lity
raeli pol itician. " It rei nforces the errone prospective coalition partners-and the Is
-•--e
ous conclusion that it cannot be done." raeli public, which has swu ng to the right
Since October 7th support for peace negoti over the past few decades.
One non-democ ratic
ations of any kind has plunged in Israel. Palestinian politics look even more for
state without equal ity
1 --- �--
Despite the disillusionment, there is no ----c• bidding. A peace process is unth inkable
clear alternative. Polls show both Israelis with Hamas, which has spent th ree dec
and Palestinians divided about how to end Sou rce: Pa lestinia n Centre for Pol icy a nd Survey Resea rch/
Ta m i Stein metz Centre fo r Peace Research
ades playing spoiler. It started a campaign
the confl ict. Some hope for a "one-state of suicide-bombings to sabotage the Oslo
solution" that would see them live in a sin accords, and then sou red a generation of
gle country with equal rights. Others sup Some of this is down to his vague posi Israelis on the idea of peace with contin
port apartheid or ethnic cleansing (they tion on the two-state solution. He has said ued attacks during the Palestin ians' sec
disagree, of course, on who the victims of little about it i n public. H is party's official ond intifada , or uprisi ng.
such an approach should be) . position is a woolly call for "separation Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian pres
These are all non-starters. The events of from the Palestinians", without any detail ident, supports a two-state solution, as
October 7th blew up the status qu o. Expul on how this might be achieved . Sources does his nationalist Fatah party. But he is
sion or discrimination are abhorrent. A close to Mr Gantz say he has no inte rest in 88 years old and will soon start the 20th
one-state solution might sound reason being more specific. To do so, they say, year of what should have been a four-year
able, but it is practically unworkable: most wou ld play into the hands of Mr Netanya term. Few Palestinians (or Israelis, for that
Israel is and Palestinians reject the idea. hu . Palestinian statehood is a wedge issue, matter) think he has the legitimacy or acu
That leaves two states . The hitch is that and therefore Mr Gantz will try to avoid it men to lead a serious push for peace. "He's
this solution requires big sacrifices from in the interest of wooing voters away from in a delusional bubble, surrounded by
both sides. Israelis would have to give up the prime minister. three or four very powerful yes-men," says
land, while Palestinians would have to give "In Benny's conversations with the an Israeli officer, an assessment shared by
up on much of the land they have lost since Americans he says that we s hould stop us many of Mr Abbas's former associates.
1948. Leaders on both sides would need to ing old words for new situations," says an The White House has mused about Sa
sell these concessions to a sceptical public. aide. In other words, he is open to discuss lam Fayyad, a technocratic ex-prime min
But neither side has such leaders. ing a form of the two-state solution but is ister and former I M F official, coming back
Israel has Binyamin Netanyahu, who wary of using the discred ited term. In sur to his old job. Even Arab officials now say
has spent his entire career trying to pre veys carried out by his party, most Israelis in private that they want a change in Pales
vent the emergence of a Palestinian state. are in favour of a two-state solution when tinian leadership. The Saudis are pushing
In a sop to Mr Obama, he did e ndorse a two
Haifa •
for Hussein al-Sheikh, Mr Abbas's right
□
state solution in a speech in 2009 at Bar 25 km
hand man , to succeed the president. The
Ilan University-though six years later he UA E hopes to see a role for Muhammad
declared that the Middle East had changed Dahlan, a former Fatah security chief who
and his speech was "irrelevant". His Likud has spent the past decade in exile in Abu
party has adopted resolutions opposi ng Dhabi . They would all be acceptable to Isra
Palestinian statehood . Kan , Israel 's public el-but perhaps not to Palestinians . Polls
broadcaster, reported in November that Mr Mediterranean Sea put their popularity i n the single digits.
Netanyahu met backbenchers from Likud
Tel Aviv •
to plead for his political survival. " I am the Plausible but unavailable
only one who can prevent a Palesti nian Another option is Marwan Barghouti, a Fa
state i n Gaza and Judea and Samaria after tah leader serving five l ife sentences in Is
the war," he said , using the Hebrew name rael for orchestrating attacks on Israeli ci
M u nicipal
for the West Bank. Jeru sa lem - vil ians. (He refused to present a defence,
bou nd a y
But Mr Netanyahu 's days are numbered. denouncing the trial as illegitimate.) Some
c
Most Israelis want him gone-fully 76% ac H ebro n hope he could become a Palestinian Nel
• Dead
Sea
cording to a poll published in November. son Mandela, emerging from prison to u n
Surveys suggest that, if an election were ite a fractured movement and negotiate
h el d , his Likud party would lose around with Israel. He often polls as the most pop
half of the 32 seats it now holds i n the 120- I S RA E L ular Palesti nian leader-but that is mostly
member Knesset. because he has spent decades out of the
The frontrun ner to succeed Mr Netan public eye, at a time when Fatah descended
yah u is Benny Gantz, a former army chief i nto corruption and senescence. Even i f Is
■ Palesti nian (Area A) Joi nt (B) Israeli (C)
West Ban k, a reas of control, 2023
who reluctantly joined Mr Netanyahu's rael allowed him out, it is u nclear how ca
Jewish settlements (incl. planned expa nsion)
war cabinet i n October. His centre-right pable a leader he would be.
Israeli sepa ration barrier - Built - Plan ned
National U nity party has opened a wide American and Arab officials have
lead in the polls. He is becoming a rarity i n pushed for Palestinian elections. At least i n
Sou rces: OCHA; Peace Now
Israel's fractious politics: a unifying figure. the West Bank, though, that could lead to ►►
► victory for whatever remains of Hamas, in Israel, especially after October 7th, since are unlikely to be blown up again.
seen by Palestinians as the only party will it would be seen as rewarding a massacre. At the same time, the Gulf states could
ing to stand up to Israel. For Fatah to regain After decades of foot-dragging, Israel is help assuage Israel's security concerns.
popularity, it would need to do two things. unlikely to make any big gestures without When the Oslo process began, only one
O ne is to curb its members' rampant graft pressure from America. "Unless the Israeli Arab state, Egypt, had diplomatic ties with
(asked to name the most pressing problem system actually feels there's a cost for go Israel. Today six of them do, and Saudi Ara
for the PA to tackle, more Palestinians ing in this direction, I don't see how you bia appears willing to join the club. The
mention corruption than occupation). The free up some space for different politics," prospect of normal relations with the Arab
other is to show that a non-violent ap says Daniel Levy, a former Israeli negotia world seems real in a way it never did in
proach can yield results. "They have to tor. An Arab diplomat suggests this pres decades past. Ending conflict not only with
make Hamas ineffective," says Khalil sure, too, should initially be aimed at set the Palestinians but also with the entire re
Sayegh, a Palestinian academic from Gaza. tlers: 'J\merica needs to get rough." gion should be a powerful inducement.
"People have to see that Hamas is not really On December 6th America announced At a meeting in Qatar earlier this
doing anything good." that it would impose visa bans on violent month, the Gulf states talked about a plan
That requires concessions from Israel, settlers who attack Palestinians and their for post-war Gaza. They resolved to work
which points to a second question: how to property. That is an u nprecedented step with Jordan, Egypt and Western powers to
make negotiations credible. After decades but it, too, is symbolic. Settlers motivated form an international coalition to push for
of failure, both Israelis and Palestinians by ideology are unlikely to be dissuaded by a two-state solution. Arab states would de
would be sceptical. For Israelis, though, a visa ban. Anyway, some of them cannot mand that the PA choose new leaders,
those decades were nonetheless good be banned: they are American citizens. while America would press Israel.
ones: they coincided with an economic For an American squeeze on settle But even if the Gulf states recognise Is
boom, a long stretch of relative peace and ments to succeed, it would need to encom rael, Iranian-backed militant groups that
burgeoning relations with Arab states. For pass the Israeli state, too. International law have weighed in on Hamas's side, such as
Palestinians, they brought only deepening obliges the Israeli army to protect Palestin Hizbullah in Lebanon or the Houthis in Ye
despair. "The whole project of an indepen ians in occupied territory, but it often men, would not do the same. "We would
dent Palestinian state is becoming part of stands by as settlers carry out attacks. If it have to get Iran on board," says a diplomat
the past," says Ghassan Khatib, a former continues to allow (and sometimes abet) from the Gulf. Asked if that was realistic,
Palestinian minister. The onus would be such violence, America could threaten to he demurred. Hostility toward Israel has
on Israel to dispel that perception. cut military aid. That would be a clear sig been a core tenet of the Islamic Republic's
Mr Novik is part of Commanders for Is nal, to the Palestinians and the Arab world, ideology for decades. The creation of a
rael's Security, a group of retired security that America was serious about trying to rump Palestinian state may not turn them
officials who advocate a two-state sol play a less biased role. But such a threat is into Zionists overnight.
ution. He offers a "menu" of steps Israel hard to imagine in an election year-or if
could take to show renewed commitment. Donald Trump wins the presidency in Familiar but uncertain
It could shrink Area c, the two-thirds of the 2024 . If Mr Eiden secures a second term, The risk, then, is that history repeats itself
West Bank under full Israeli control, and though, such a move would be popular again. A new crop of leaders might pay lip
expand Area B , where the PA has authority with the progressive wing of his party. service to a two-state solution. Israel might
over civil matters, but not security. (Area A , Along with threats, America and its soften its hostility toward the PA and offer
where the PA has full control, is even small partners would also have to offer incen a few concessions. Gulf states would
er: see map on previous page. ) It could stop tives. For the Palestinians, these would pledge money and recognition. But the
demolishing unlicensed homes in Area c, probably be mainly financial. The most deal on offer would be, fundamentally, the
where it refuses to grant Palestinians con immediate question is how to rebuild a same as before- a deal that a far more opti
struction permits (it usually issues ten or shattered Gaza, the bill for which will easi mistic generation of Israelis and Palestin
fewer each year). It could curtail army raids ly run into tens of billions of dollars. ians rejected.
in Palestinian cities. Wealthy Gulf states would be willing to In recent years intellectuals on both
For Palestinians, though, these steps contribute-but only if Gaza becomes part sides have begun calling for more creative
would be woefully insufficient. A slightly of a Palestinian state and their investments thinking. One idea is of a confederation in
expanded Area B would hardly be a re which there would be both a Jewish and a
sounding achievement that Fatah could Palestinian entity. Citizens of one part
sell to a dubious public. "We've waited 30 would be entitled to live and work in the
years for a state," says a diplomat. "We other. The idea is to diminish the impor
don't want some construction permits." tance of exactly how such a small parcel of
The Oslo accords, after all, were undone by land is carved up and to give each side
gradualism: the idea that both sides need greater interest in the stability of the other.
ed to build trust with symbolic moves be There are even more obstacles to this
fore agreeing on more substantive steps. idea than to the standard two-state blue
Asked what would constitute a more se print, but there is a virtue in novel con
rious gesture, several Palestinian analysts cepts. "Israel benefits from the unserious
point to the settlements in the occupied ness of an international approach which
West Bank, home to around 465 , 000 Israe simply says, go back to two-state negotia
lis. It would not be enough to freeze new tions," says Mr Levy. Those negotiations
construction, they say; that has been tried too often become an end rather than a
before, including under Mr Obama. Israel means, even though by now there is little
should go further and dismantle some of left to negotiate: it has all been discussed
the settlements it would have to relinquish ad infinitum. The events of the past few
in a peace deal. That would both build con months show the status quo is untenable.
fidence and advance a final-status agree Change is inevitable. The only question is
ment. It also seems politically impossible what form it will take. ■
I ••
Economic
..
,
Social Media Pakistan 0342-4938217
United States The Economist December gth 2023 21
T is used to
H E U N I V E RS ITY O F M O N TA NA
the idea of grizzly bears. This towering
predator is the college mascot, and the
"They're right up in the mountains."
Missoula is not alone. The number of
bears in Montana has risen steadily while
2% of their historical range in the lower 48
(see map on next page). "They put grizzly
bears on the state fl ag in California," says
campus in Missoula is plastered with griz they have been protected under the E ndan Mr Servheen, "and then they proceeded to
zly memorabilia. Purple paw prints (lethal gered Species Act ( ESA) , America's land kill every last one of them."
claws included) are painted on the pave mark wildlife-conservation law, which cel Grizzlies became a novelty. For decades
ments. Banners on lampposts tell students ebrates its 50th anniversary in 2023. But tourists at Yellowstone National Park gath
to "Rise and roar". Students can frequent their recovery has brought mixed feelings: ered to watch them eat rubbish. After the
Grizzly Grocery, Grizzly Espresso and- if pride, that a species once close to extinc last dump was closed in 1970, and the griz
they are of age-Grizzly Liquor. But recent tion in the lower 48 states is again thriving; zlies lost this reliable food source, their
ly communities around the university anger, from those who feel that the bears numbers dwindled to as few as 136. The
have been confronted with something a bit threaten their way of life; and fear, because Fish and Wildlife Service placed them on
beyond college spirit: actual grizzly bears. run-ins with the predators do not always the endangered-species list in 1975 .
This spring one such bear lumbered Scientists reckon that in 1984 there
down from the Rattlesnake mountain were around 300 grizzlies in the Greater
➔ Also in this section
range and into a forested exurb of Missou Yellowstone Ecosystem (GY E) , the conser
la. "We saw the tracks," says Chris Serv 23 Replacing George Santos vation area at the border of Wyoming, Ida
heen, a biologist who led the grizzly-bear ho and Montana that surrounds Yellow
23 Young views on j ews
recovery effort for the us Fish and Wildlife stone National Parle In 2022 there were
Service until 2016. Mr Servheen drives your 24 Our Republican poll tracker roughly 1, 000 (see chart on next page). The
correspondent in his truck along the route number of bears in the Northern Conti
24 Voting rules in New Jersey
that the bear took. "He walked right nental Divide Ecosystem ( N C D E ) , around
through here," he says. Pine trees and 25 Downtown science labs Glacier National Park in north-west Mon
larches line the foothills. Water rushes in a tana, has risen by about 50% since 2004, to
26 Lexington: Charlie Peters
creek nearby. "They're here," he adds. more than 1, 100. The bears in the N C DE ►►
► have expanded their range by an average of infrastructure projects. The ESA is often
2.9% a year between 2004 and 2022. Bearing u p used by environmentalists and N I MBY
As the bears multiply and spread out, U n ited States, esti m ated grizzly- bear population groups to block development.
they are running i nto people. But the grow i n the G reater Ye l lowsto ne Ecosyste m In some ways, the debate over bears
i ng risk of human-bear conflicts is not only 1 ,200 boils down to control. The feds think they
due to the bear boom. Montana's human should p reside over the protection of lands
population grew by nearly 12% in the de and species important to the country.
900
cade to 2022, almost twice the national States resent federal environmental regu
rate. That of Gallatin County, which in 95% confi d e n ce "'\
i n terval
lations as government overreach. Montan
cludes part of the GY E , grew by a whopping 600 ans who deal with grizzlies walking
35% in the same period. Greg Gianforte, the through their backyards wonder why
state's Republican governor, attributes 300 Washington should decide how they pro
some of the growth to the popularity of the tect their family and property. Yet Ameri
hit television show "Yellowstone" (a 0 cans across the country feel the bear be
ranching drama) and the allu re of wild 1 984 90 95 2000 05 10 15 22
longs to them, too. When a family takes a
places and remote work during the co Sou rce: lnteragency Grizzly Bear Study Team
trip to Yellowstone in the hope of seeing a
vid-19 pandemic. "People move to the most grizzly (ideally from afar) , they are ready to
beautiful places," he says. "I personally marvel at the fact that there are still suffi
think Montana is the most beautifu l place." agency, urged the Treasure State to amend ciently wild parts of America in which
Mr Gianforte is a central character in a law championed by Republican legisla such impressive predators can thrive.
this d rama. In 2021 he petitioned the Fish tors that allows Montanans to kill a grizzly While politicos in Washington and Hel
and Wildlife Service to remove the N C D E if it is threatening livestock, which is a fed ena squabble, most Montanans are trying
grizzlies from the endangered-species list, eral crime. She also warned that several an to learn to live with bears. A survey from
arguing that the bears have fully recovered . ti-predator laws passed in 2021 could make the University of Montana suggests that
Wyoming a n d Idaho s e n t similar petitions delisting less likely. Montana officials have 85% of them believe grizzlies are part of
about the GY E bears and the entire popula tried to shore up their case by proposing to what makes their state special, and three
tion of grizzlies in the lower 48, respective ban grizzly hunting-a great fear of local quarters think the state should try to main
ly. The latter petition was denied. But the tribes , which view the bear as sacred-for tain a self-sustaining grizzly population.
agency could decide as early as February at least five years after their delisting. Perhaps the culture wars-whatever the
whether the bears in the other two ecosys One sticking-point will be whether the specific issue-are less salient to Ameri
tems still need federal protections. Fish and Wildlife Service believes that the cans than to those seeking political office.
connection of hitherto isolated grizzly
Good news bears populations will be possible without feder Be bear aware
The ESA aims to protect species so well that al protections. Scientists have long hoped This desire to coexist with bears, rather
they can recover. That grizzlies are thriving that N C D E bears would venture far enough than violently dominate them, has spurred
enough to be taken off the list should be south to introduce some genetic diversity Missoula to attempt a grand experiment.
welcome news for a law with a mixed re to the GY E population. The bears are tanta The city will soon require some residents
cord. To mark its 50th birthday, federal of lisingly close. Officials in Montana reckon to have bear- proof rubbish bins to deter
ficials crowed that 99% of listed species just 100km (62 miles) separates the north black bears and grizzlies from entering
have resisted extinction. But very few have ern grizzlies from their Yellowstone kin. neighbourhoods to look for food . Wildlife
been able to leave the list. A study from the The impending decision will not end officials are trying to teach locals, tribes,
Property and Environment Research Cen this debate. Past grizzly delistings have scores of new Montanans and clueless
tre, a conservative think-tank in Bozeman, been challenged in the courts. The feds are Airbnbers what to do if they encounter a
Montana, calculates that only 3 °/o of spe also deciding whether grizzlies should be bear. If Missoula's experiment succeeds, it
cies ever listed have recovered. returned to Washington state. Beyond would be a rare conservation bright spot in
During an interview at his office in Hel bears, Ms Doremus reckons the E S A will a world inundated by news of biodiversity
ena, Mr Gianforte admits that his cam stay in the spotlight. If Republicans retake loss. Rather than a symbol of the past, like
paign to get the bear delisted is not just the White House and the Senate in 2024 , the grizzly on California's state flag, Mon
about population numbers. A huge stuffed she expects them to try to quietly gut the tana's bears would be testimony to what
grizzly stands by the entrance to the room, law by carving out exemptions for energy- people can do for nature, not just to it. ■
and seems to stare inquisitively at your
correspondent as if it knows its species is
the topic of conversation. "It's a tenth CANADA Glacier N a ona l Pa rk__ D
amendment issue," says the governor, re r _
ferring to states' rights. "There is nothing I
i n our constitution that talks about wild
life anywhere. And yet the federal govern
ment has taken a very strong role." M o nta na
Was h ingto n
The mistrust flows both ways . Federal
authorities have been sceptical that those PA C I F I C • Helena
states will manage the bears well , says Hol OCEAN
ly Doremus, an environmental-law profes
sor at the University of California in Berke
ley. She argues that partisanship has
seeped i nto wildli fe management. 250 km
This year Martha Williams, the head of
the Fish and Wildlife Service and ex-direc □ G rizzly-bear recovery zones Idaho Wyom ing
Source: US Fish and Wi ldlife Service
tor of Montana's wildlife-management
The contest to replace the expelled Our polling shows one in five young
congressman people think the Holocaust is a myth
G the
EORG E SANTOS last week became only
sixth member of America's House
0 lawmakers
N DECEM B E R 5TH , for over five hours,
grilled the presidents of
of Representatives to be expelled from the elite u n iversities i n a congressional hear
chamber in its 234-year history. After his ing about antisemitism on college cam
ejection , the disgraced politician did what puses. I n one of the testiest exchanges a
any millennial would do: monetised his Republican congresswoman, E l ise Stefa
infamy on social media. Calling himself a nik, asked whether "calling for the geno
" former congressional icon", Mr Santos is cide of Jews" violates university rules. It is
recording personalised videos- from pep "context-dependent", replied Liz Magill,
talks to birthday wishes-on the website the president of the U niversity of Pennsyl
Cameo. Although he faces 23 federal crimi vania. Clips of the exchange went viral on
nal charges, from wire fraud to identity X, formerly Twitter. Yad Vashem, a Holo
theft, the 35-year-old will send brief clips Fifteen m i n utes of infa my caust museum and research centre, issued
to just about anyone with $400 to spare. a condemnation and stressed the impor
As Mr Santos enjoys his moment of no will select the nominee for the special elec tance of " raising awareness about the his
toriety ahead of what could be years be tion, is poised to pick Tom Suozzi, the tory of antisemitism and the Holocaust".
hind bars , New York's political class has al three-term congressman whom Mr Santos A new poll from YouGov/The Econom ist
ready moved on. State law requires Kathy replaced last year when Mr Suozzi ran un suggests that Yad Vashem has its work cut
Hochul, the governor, to hold a special successfully for governor. Republicans had out. You ng Americans-or at least the sub
election about two months after the seat yet to announce their candidate at the time set of them who take part in surveys-ap
has become vacant. Mr Santos represented of writing. pear to be remarkably ignorant about one
New York's third congressional district The campaign will focus more on policy of modern history's greatest crimes. Some
(which extends across part of the North and the new candidates than on Mr Santos . 20% of respondents aged 18-29 think that
Shore of Long I sland) for less than a year, Republicans plan to return to the playbook the Holocaust is a myth , compared with
but his victory, along with other pickups in from their successful 2022 campaign. 8% of those aged 30-44 (see chart) . An ad
the Empire State, were a rare bright spot for "We're gonna talk about the issues that ditional 30% of young Americans said they
Republicans in an otherwise underwhelm voters care about, like the migran t crisis, do not know whether the Holocaust is a
ing midterm election cycle. like rising crime and like the economy myth. Many respondents espouse the ca
Both parties are carefully managing ex that's slowing down," says a national Re nard that Jews wield too much power in
pectations for the race to replace him-ar publican strategist. America: young people are nearly five
guing, at least for now, that the outcome Democrats are banking on a fresh polit times more likely to think this than are
shouldn't have much predictive value for ical environment. Many will be relieved those aged 65 and older (28% versus 6%) .
the 2024 general election. The political cli not to have Ms Hochul at the top of the tick Now for the harder part: why do some
mate could change drastically over the et. The governor, who came to power after young Americans embrace such views?
next 1 1 months. Yet the truncated contest Andrew Cuomo's resignation in 2021, won Perhaps surprisingly, education levels do
could still attract tens of millions of dollars a full term by only six points in a state not appear to be the culprit. In our poll, the
i n campaign spending. Joe Eiden won the where Joe Eiden trounced Donald Trump proportion of respondents who believe
-
district by ten points i n 2020, and Mr San by more than 20 two years before. And if that the Holocaust is a myth is similar
tos flipped the seat with a similar margin Democrats lose the special election they across all levels of education.
last year. A win would boost morale and may have better luck in November, when a Social media might play a role. Accord- ►►
donor confidence on either side. ballot i nitiative to codify abortion rights
The race also has outsize policy im pli into the state constitution could d rive
cations for the 435-member lower cham Democratic turnout, as it has in other Seriously?
ber. House Republicans, already an unruly states since Roe v Wade was overturned. U n ited States, Dec 2nd-5th 2023, % agreeing
bunch, saw their four-seat majority shrink Beyond the House, the Santos expul By age gro u p
to three after Mr Santos departed. Mike sion also has implications for the upper
Johnson, the new House speaker, has more chamber. In September Bob Menendez, a "The Holocaust "The Holocaust has
goodwill with his caucus than his prede senator from New Jersey, was charged with is a myth" been exaggerated"
cessor, but that relationship will be tested bribery. Following the precedent of expel 0 1 0 20 30 0 1 0 20 30
by fights over assistance for Ukraine and a l i ng Mr Santos before a criminal convic 1 8-29 1 8-29
long-term government-funding deal. Per tion, many want Mr Menendez expelled
haps these battles will be over by the time from the Senate. John Fetterman, a Demo 30-44 30-44
the special election takes place, but Con cratic senator from Pennsylvania critical of
gress has a way of dragging its feet. his colleague, asked Mr Santos to offer ad 45-64 e 45-64
Democrats, for their part, wil l be eager vice to a friend with legal p roblems, Bobby
to shake off their 2022 loss and show from Jersey. Mr Santos complied : "Stand 65+ 65+
strength o n New York's Long Island. The you r ground, sir, and don't get bogged Source: YouGov/The Economist
Nassau County Democratic Party, which down by all the haters out there." ■
► i ng to a 2022 survey from the Pew Research mist. corn/republicans-tracker) , he has Easier voting
Centre, Americans u nder 30 are about as double the support he did then. His closest
l ikely to trust information o n social media
as they are to trust national news organisa
rival, Ron Desantis, the governor of Flori
da, is on a lowly 12% (see left-hand chart) .
Fuhgeddaboudit!
tions. More recently Pew fou nd that 32% of Of all the things that could stop M r Trump
those aged 18-29 get their news from Tik from contesting next year's election, the
Tok . Social-med ia sites are rife with con most probable obstacle is himself. W A S H I N G TO N , D C
spiracy theories, and research has found The p rimaries may yet throw up some New Jersey gave an automatic right
strong associations between rates of so surp rises. Despite high-profile withdraw
to vote at home-then let it lapse
cial-med ia use and bel iefs in such theo als in recent weeks, including Mike Pence,
ries. In one recent su rvey by Generation
Lab, a data-intell igence company, you ng
adults who used TikTok were more likely to
Mr Trump's former vice-president, deter
mined opponents remain. Mr Desantis has
flopped on the campaign trail , but Nikki
T H E COV I D-19 PAN DEMIC changed a lot of
things. For some states, this included
voting. Fou r states (California, Nevada,
hold antisemitic bel iefs. Haley, who trails just beh ind Mr Desantis , New Jersey and Vermont) and the District
Though you ng Americans' views are received a boost recently when the Koch of Colu mbia decided to automatically send
most stark, antisemitism is rearing its network, one of the party's biggest donors, every voter a mail-in ballot. Five other
head in other demographic groups. The backed the former governor of South Caro states (Colorado, Hawaii, Oregon, Utah and
same YouGov/The Economist poll fou nd lina. She has notably d istanced herself Wash ington) already did this before the
that 27% of black respondents and 19% of from Mr Tru mp by being hawkish on Uk pandemic. After implementing this tem
Hispanics believe that Jews have too much raine. And Vivek Ramaswamy, a 38-year porary change for the 2020 p residential
power in America, compared with 13% of old former pharmaceutical-company boss, election New Jersey had the h ighest voter
white respondents who say so. Whatever has learnt from Mr Tru mp: he is qu ick to tu rnout in the country after Wash ington,
the reasons, the polling is alarming. ■ throw himself in front of a microphone, DC. Then it did what any reasonable gov
heaps praise on the former president and ernment would do when something goes
sticks sharp barbs into everyone else. well. It allowed the provision to expire.
The Republican primaries None is likely to overtake M r Tru mp. Being citizens of one of the richest and
A Don-horse race
But they are boosting their profiles-in most edu cated states, New Jerseyans
some cases maybe positioning themselves shou ld vote more than they do, says Jake
for jobs in a new Tru mp administration . Grumbach, a public-policy professor at the
Never-Trumpers instead look to the Un iversity of Californ ia, Berkeley. In the
courts to scupper the former president. Mr previous presidential election, in 2016,
Tru mp faces four criminal trials. If he is only 62% of eligible voters in the state cast
convicted, the constitution would proba a ballot (about the same as the national av
Our tracker of voters' intentions sheds
light on the race behind Donald Trump bly not prevent him from running. But the erage) . This changed in 2020. New Jersey
trials may yet sour voters on him . topped the league with a 78% turnout
-
shot" in December 2015 . Today, according vention in Milwaukee, where the party will New Jersey also came top for participation
to our analysis of Republ icans' voting in crown its nominee, is still seven months among eligible voters aged 18-34 , with a
tentions (see the latest odds at econo- away. But the race is Mr Trump's to lose. ■ tu rnout of 64 %. In the previous presiden
tial election, less than hal f of young eligi
ble New Jerseyans cast a ballot.
Tru m p a nd the rest There could be many reasons for the
U n ited States, Repu blican p ri m a ries 2024, voti ng i ntention*, % rise in civic engagement in 2020. It was a
presidential-election year during a global
With Trump i ncl uded With Trump excluded pandemic. George Floyd 's murder months
80 50 earlier sparked a racial reckoning. Many
people fou nd themselves at home with l it
Other candidates Tru m p tle to do but much to worry about. Still, Phil
40
60 Keisling of the NVAH I thinks that some
thing else was in p lay for New Jersey: the
30 automatic abil ity for every registered voter
40 to vote from home.
Ra maswa my
20 Duri ng the 2020 election every regis
tered voter in New Jersey received a mail
20 in ballot. Those voters then had options.
10 They could post their ballot back. They
could p lace it in a secure drop-box or at a
0 0 polling place on election day. Sti l l others
F M A M A S O N D F M A M A s 0 N left those ballots at home and voted the tra
2023 2023 ditional way in a booth .
Sou rces: FiveThirtyEight; nationa l po l ls; YouGov; The Economist *Pol ling of likely or potentia l Republican voters
It appears that this surge of voter partic
ipation was too much of a good thing for ►►
Com me rcial prope rty wil l flock to city centres, even i f office
Science and
workers remain slow to return.
Until recently, says John Flavin, of Por
the city
tal , biosciences mostly h appened in the
suburbs. Big pharmaceutical firms operat
ed h uge labs on corporate business parks .
CH ICAGO
But that, he i nsists, is changing-because
Can lab workers fill up city centres bioscience is becoming more l i ke tech.
New d rugs used to be i nvented by large
as offices retreat?
vertical ly integrated fi rms. But now they
Fnessquarters
ROM I N I T I A Limpressions, the head
of Portal Innovations, a busi
in Chicago, resemble any other tech
are increasingly developed by startups that
come out of u niversities and are funded by
venture capitalists. These fi rms face a vi
firm office space. I n the main lobby, work cious fight for workers-es pecially fresh
ers in j eans and T-shirts sip on fancy cof graduates from high-end u niversities,
fees and lou nge around on modernist fu r such as M I T or, in Chicago, Northwestern
niture. Wal k around the place, however, and the University of Chicago. Those
and differences become apparent. First, young workers tend to want to live in city
there are almost no cubicles or desktop centres. " Power is with the individ ual tal
computers. I nstead , the rooms su rround ent," says Mr Flavin . "And they all want to
ing the central atriu m are fi l led with lab be in an urban environment." That means
equ ipment: microscopes, mass spectrom proximity to restaurants , bars-and other
Back to the bal lot booth eters and bioreactors. Second , the space is similar businesses to poach staff from.
in use. Given you r correspondent visited Could labs make up for diminishing de
► the Garden State. After 2020 New Jersey ig late on a Thu rsday afternoon, the workers mand for office space, and so help save
nored the success of its experiment and let are rather numerous . Evidently almost no struggling city centres? It will not be easy.
its automatic mail-in-ballot pol icy end. body is working from home-probably be Mr Flavin notes that the bu ild ing his firm
This is a particularly surprising move for a cau se they do not have access to those bio is based in had to be custom-built. J L L, a
state where 57% of voters chose President reactors in their living rooms. property consultan cy, points out that sci
Joe Bi den . (Donald Tru mp tweeted in 2 0 2 0 Portal is a firm somewhere between a entists have d ifferent requirements : lab
that mail-in voting "doesn't work out well WeWork and a venture-capital incubator spaces need higher ceilings and more pow
for Republicans".) for life-sciences firms. Its tenants are start er, which can make converting older build
"Universal mail ballots with automatic up firms typical ly trying to develop new ings to new uses tricky.
registration .. . is the best system ," says Pro drugs. The complex they are based in is Nonetheless, Boston , a centre for life
fessor Grumbach . "So it is weird when any Fulton Labs, in Chicago's West Loop, which sciences, last year approved the conver
state, especially a blue state that says it opened its second build ing last year. From sion of an office block to lab space. And
likes accessible voting, moves away from the outside it resembles a fancy hotel, or new lab space is being built in Manhattan
that." After the 2020 election, California, any other new office bu ilding, with its and across the Atlantic in Canary Wharf, i n
Nevada, Vermont and Washington, oc , gyms and balconies. But inside it is largely London . Unless office workers c a n b e re
kept their automatic mail-in-ballot sys lab space. As well as Portal , space is taken placed , land lords in such places wi ll soon
tem. New Jersey chose to invest in i n-per up by the Chan Zuckerberg Biohub, a chari face the prospect of hefty ren t cuts . The
son voting technology instead. table research lab set up by the Facebook equ ipment may be microscopic. But the
Voter turnout is already down for New fou nd er, which opened in October. Its con potential rewards for accommodating it
Jersey, and it will probably stay down for struction represents a bet that scientists are on a macro level. ■
the next presidential election. Mid-term
elections tend to have lower voter partici
pation than pres idential ones, but com
pared with other states New Jersey had the
biggest drop between 2 0 2 0 and 2022 (31
percentage points, compared with the na
tional fal l of 20 points) .
Micah Rasmussen , of the Rebovich I n
stitute for New Jersey Politics at Rider Uni
versity, says that low tu rnout, especially
du ring presidential elections, is not a con
cern for New Jersey's state politicians. New
Jersey is one of o nly four states to have off
year elections, mea n i ng that governors
and state legislators are elected outside the
federal-election cycle. And for the most
part this process works well for the Demo
crats i n charge. " Democrats are using vote
by-mail very strategically a nd effectively to
build the electorate they want to get the
turnout that they want," s ays Mr Rasmus
sen. "They've got things the way they l ike
them, and there's not real ly a desire to
change that." ■ Any l a bs to let?
Charlie Pe ters believed that ruthlessly idealistic jou rnalism wo uld renew fa ith in government
zine, the Washing ton Mon th ly, in 1969. "I wanted to look at Wash
ington the way that an a nthropologist looks at a Sou th Sea island,"
he wrote in h is autobiography, "Tilting at Windmills". The title,
wh ich was also the name of his column in the Monthly from 1977
until 2014, captured with characteristic self-awareness the im
modesty, idealism and impracticality-the glory-of his venture.
His faith in government made him a ruthless sceptic of it. A
Roosevelt Democrat, he believed in an activist federal role, and he
despised the tax-cutting, anti-government d rift of the Republican
Party. But he feared , rightly, that Democrats' i ndifference to bu
reaucratic bloat would erode su pport for programmes to help poor
and working-class Americans. This orientation-idealism with a
gimlet eye-was the essence of h is approach. He su mmed up the
prejudices of liberals as "Don't say anything good about the bad
guys", includ ing businesspeople, the police and the clergy. A co
rollary was "Don't say anything bad about the good guys", meaning
Democratic constituencies such as civil servants , teachers and un
ion officials. His writers had to be will ing to d o both.
Charlie thought Democrats cou ld respect the armed forces
wh ile attacking Pentagon waste or fool ish wars ; be patriotic with
out in dulging chauvin ism; an d embrace entrepreneurship with
out neglecting the poor. He bel ieved in some form of national ser
annex Guyana
ro claimed he won , the official turnout was
9.4m. TV footage of that vote showed large
crowds of people waiting to cast ballots .
On t h e d a y of the referendum, b y con
CARACAS
trast, barely any queues were seen or re
ported outside thousands of polling sta
An unpopular president holds a poll to distract voters from his failings
tions. Even government broadcasters,
► Rodriguez Cabello, a general, as its chief. A tion on December 3rd at the coP28 summit. . .. more than a grand slam."
new map of a now larger Venezuela has "If there's one thing South America doesn't Mr Rocha is not the first such case. " I
been published. Mr Maduro, whose rule need right now, it is conflict," he said. don't fi n d this particularly surprising,"
h as been marked by mass emigration and Before the referendum Vladimir Padri says Duyane Norman, who ran the C IA's
soaring poverty, said that Petr6leos de Ven no Lopez, the defence minister, ominou sly Latin American operations. "Pound for
ezuela SA (P DVSA) , the state's oil company, claimed that the dispute "is not a war, for pound Cuba is recognised as one of the bet
should begin granting operating l icences now". Nevertheless, Venezuela is unlikely ter intelligence services in the world."
for the exploitation of crude oil , gas and to invade its neighbour. It " has a massive Cuban i ntel ligence was modelled on the
mines in Essequibo, and that "social care" military advantage over Guyana, but Vene Soviet KGB and East German Stas i. It pene
should be organised for its inhabitants. zuela would not be confronting only Guy trated the United States in the 1970s and
This has all the hal lmarks of "the fairy ana," says Rocio San Miguel, a military ana 1980s, focusing on the recru itment of
tale stage" of a dictatorship, says the West lyst. The United States and Brazil would women and Hispanic men. I n 1987 Floren
ern diplomat. I n real ity, the exercise has swi ftly come to the small nation's defence tino Aspillaga Lombard, a top Cuban intel
backfired. If Venezuelans could not be per with military hel p, she thinks. l igence officer, defected and reveal ed that
suaded to vote in large numbers for a prof Mr Maduro, who had no doubt con virtually every C I A agent on the island
itable slice of Guyana, what hope might Mr vinced h imsel f that the referendum was a since the 1960s had been plants, or later
Madu ro have that they would re-elect him brilliant idea, has in fact confirmed his un tu rned and fed misinformation.
in a fair election, assuming the regime de popularity. Could this threat of a phoney American spooks have long acknowl
cided to hold one? war against Guyana be his Waterloo? Might edged that their Cuban counterparts were
The timing of the referendum also ap those close to him decide he is a liability? part of, as one government report noted, "a
pears to be something of an own goal for Maybe. But he does have an uncanny abili first-rate intelligence service" who could
the usually savvy Mr Maduro. In October ty to survive. ■ run " highly aggressive operations
representatives of his regime signed an ··· throughout the world ". One reason for
agreement in Barbad os with members of this was that, as in other communist coun
the opposition over how the presid ential Cu ban spies tries, the brightest often gravitate to posi
election might be held in 2024. In return
Their man in
tions that bring power and privi lege, such
for some modest pledges, the Un ited States as the opportu nity to live abroad , says Mr
Havana
lifted a raft of sanctions for an initial six Norman. "They have been cultivating a
months, most significantly on P DVSA. This class of genuine professional intell igence
means that it can expand produ ction and officers for a long ti me," he adds .
the regime can begin selling its oil at mar Those officers have taken a long-term
ket prices . view. "One of the hallmarks of a lot of
President Joe Biden's admi nistration Cuban operations is patience," says Mr
America unmasks a Cuban agent
recently reminded Mr Maduro that he Norman , allowing recruits to rise to posi
needed to fu lfil his part of the deal , by re
leasing American prisoners and beginning
the process of rehabilitating banned politi
Igence
N S I D E RS HAV E long known that Cuba's
foreign intell igence agency-the Intelli
Directorate, or DG I in its Spanish ac
tions of prominence over time. He points
to the example of the "Cuban Five", a group
of intelligence officers arrested in Miami
cians, including Ms Machado, by the end of ronym-punches above its weight. Evi in 1998 and accused of infi ltrating anti
November. Mr Maduro's government ap dence of that came on December 4th when Castro groups. Mr Rocha was recru ited at
peared to be partially complying with that the us Justice Department charged Victor arou nd aged 30 and helped by the DG I to
demand , hours before the dead line ex Manuel Rocha, a former American ambas join the State Department.
pired. It announced on November 30th sador, with secretly serving as a Cuban Cuba's biggest known success was Ana
that opposition politicians cou ld appeal agent for 42 years. Montes, the top Cuba analyst in the Penta
against their bans until December 15th. Mr Rocha would be one of the highest gon's Defence Intelligence Agency (D I A) .
But now Mr Maduro has chosen to be a placed moles that America's government She had been recruited by Cuban intelli- ►►
pariah once more. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, has recently found . An ind ictment says
Brazil's president, has long avoided blam that he started working for Cuba no later
-
ing Mr Madu ro for the economic d isaster than in 1981 and joined the State Depart
that Venezuela has been through under his ment that year. He went on to become the
decade-long rule. But Lula showed irrita- top official for the Americas in the Nation
al Security Council in the White House, a
senior diplomat in Havana, deputy ambas
Clai med by
.. ..
T R I N I DA D .. .. ..
.. .. .. , sador in Argentina and ambassador in Bo
',, Venezuela
..
,,
/ & TO BAGO ',
� ', l ivia between 1999 and 2002.
---,
I ',
,, _ _ _ ... ____ I
',, '
', , '
Even after retirement, Mr Rocha had ac
I ' '
.. ..
-- ��! . . .. .. .. .. .. ..,
:,. I e I
V E N E Z U E L A ,'
'
MAKI N G C LI MATE
FI NAN C E AVAI LABLE,
AFFO R DABLE AN D
AC C ESSI BLE
E i g ht years ago i n Paris, governments a n d civil soci ety pledged to li mit
g lobal wa rming to 1 . 5 ° C a b ove pre - in dustrial levels i n order to avo id
e nv i ro n mental d isaster. As t h i n g s sta nd, we a re n ot even close to
meet i n g this target.
One maj o r obstacle has been money. Cli mate finance is not ava i la b le,
affordable or accessible, particularly in the Global South. Although
financing commitm ents have nearly dou bled to $ 850m per year si nce
201 5, that figure needs to g row fivefold to $ 4.3trn per yea r by 2030 if
the Paris goals a re to b e met, accord i n g to the Cli mate Policy I n itiative.
One reason for the shortfa ll i n finance is government i nactio n . Wea lthy
countries pledged $ 1 00bn per year in 2009 to help fund climate change
m itigation i n poorer countries, but this money has n ot materialized.
To fast-track the shift to a resilient net-zero economy, a new
fra mework on climate fi n a n ce is n eeded, a longside crucial reforms
that match the magnitude of climate finance req u i red. Pledged
commitments, meanwh i le, must be met.
► gence in 1984 , trained i n Havana and ning Mexico City's new airport, building
served as an agent for 17 years u ntil her ar banks and guarding refi neries. Mr Lopez
rest in 2001. In that time she revealed the Obrador has relied on the army to circum
names of fou r American undercover offi vent a hostile civil service and complete
cers i n Cuba and details of operations i n El his pharaonic infrastructure projects, such
Salvador, N icaragua and Panama. as a tourist train to run around the Yucatan
The case of Ms Montes, who was re peninsula. The only government i nstitu
leased from prison in January, illustrates tion "that responds with 100% loyalty to
another reason why the DGI has enjoyed the president is the military", says Raul Be
such success. Cuba does not need to resort nitez Manaut at the National Autonomous
to what Russia calls kompromat, compro University of Mexico.
mising material to blackmail would-be FI ush with inflated budgets and new
agents, says Mr Norman. Ideology is often powers, Mexico's military commanders
enough . Just as Soviet spies traded on the appear increasingly unaccountable. Earlier
appeal of anti-fascism and socialism in the this year a data hack of the defence minis
1930s, so too did the DGI exploit the (for try suggested that they had spied on jour
mer) romance of the Cuban revolution. nalists and human-rights defenders inves
In the cold war the KG B had to pay, often tigating mu rders allegedly carried out by
handsomely, to recruit many of its best soldiers. (They deny wrongdoing.)
agents. Mr Rocha and Ms Montes appar Brazil's former president, Jair Bolsona
ently worked for free. Ms Montes was radi ro, stu ffed his cabinet with military
calised by the Reagan administration's Fu l l meta l jacket men. Some generals appear to have sup
policy in Latin America, including its in ported rioters who stormed Congress in
tervention in G renada in 1983 and its sup of dissidents. By the tu rn of the millenni January to demand a coup after Mr Bolso
port for the Contras , right-wing rebels, in um, n ewly democratic governments had naro lost the election. To keep the army on
Nicaragua. She was, she later told the F B I , a sent their sold iers back to the barracks. side, Brazil's new president, Luiz Inacio Lu
"comrade in the struggle" against America. Some got rid of them altogether. Costa Rica la da Silva, looks set to approve a plan to
Mr Rocha, though adopting right-wing abolished its armed forces in 1948. Panama double the military budget to 2% of G D P .
garb-last year he contributed to the re followed suit in 1990. The region spent just Since coming t o power in 2022 Gabriel
election effort of an anti-Castro congress 1.1% of its G D P on defence in 2022, on a par Boric, Chile's left-wing president, has re
woman-was d riven by the same ideology. with sub-Saharan Africa. Paraguay's air newed the state of emergency in the south
He boasted that his "number-one priority" men today use second-hand choppers that of the country 35 times and sent the army
was to prevent any action "that would en last saw service in Vietnam. to guard the northern border. (Before he
danger. .. the revolution itself." ■ Yet Latin America's armed forces are no was in office, he criticised such policies.)
longer irrelevant. For a start, the region is In El Salvador Nayib Bukele, who has just
becoming more embroiled in geopolitical circu mvented term-limits by stepping
M i l itary m ight tensions. Its commodities-such as cop down as president in order to seek re-elec
General purpose
per, oil, lithium and foodstuffs-have huge tion, has used the army to lock up 70,000
strategic value. Chinese state-owned com alleged gang members over the past 18
panies are building deepwater ports in Pe months, or 2% of the adult population .
ru and Argentina. China is also said to be In Argentina, Javier Milei, who takes ov
ramping up signals bases in Cuba: poten er as president on December 10th, appears
ASUNCl6N
tial targets in the event of a war with the to have downplayed the atrocities by the
United States over Taiwan. It is training military junta, which ran the country from
Latin America's armed forces have
with the region's armed forces, too. 1976 to 1983 . He acknowledges that "excess
increasing clout
And though wars are exceedingly rare es" were committed but denies a systemat
Itional
Bay of
see as another move to centralise power. Karnataka T IS Aplot worthy of John le Carre. A shad
• Bengal
The five state polls are not straightfor Bangalore owy figure in I ndia recruits an interna
wardly predictive of next year's general arms-and-drugs smuggler to organ
election result. In 2018 Congress won con ise a h it-job in New York. The smuggler re
trol of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and SRI LAN KA cruits an assassin. The assassin turns out
�
Rajasthan, and then was trou nced in all to work for America's D rug Enforcement
three states in the general election that fol Administration ( D EA) . The man behind the
lowed. Congress's vote share in all three by a failure to fu lfil election promises. In foiled plot? An Indian government official.
this year was roughly the same as in 2018, Madhya Pradesh, Congress's inability to The indictment America's Justice De
while the BJ P's rose at the expense of small exploit dissatisfaction with the incumbent partment unveiled on November 29th is an
er parties. Yet given that the BJ P tends to do BJ P government was attributed largely to astonishing read. It lays out in bracing de
better in national than state-level polls, its selection of another ageing and contro tail an alleged plot by an Indian official to
these resu lts look bad for its opponents. versial Congress veteran, 77-year-old Ka kill Sikh activists in America (unsuccess
The party's greater success nationally is mal Nath , as its cand idate for chief minis fu lly) and Canada (successfully) . It also de
based on the popularity of Mr Modi, whose ter. He had taken that post after Congress scribes the equally gripping ruse employed
image as a strong, charismatic leader is won the last state election in 2018 but his by American spies to foil the plot. This
sustained by the BJ P's media operation. government collapsed 15 months later. brings to a head a month-long diplomatic
The BJ P performed especially strongly Beyond such local factors, the BJ P's suc scandal over Ind ia's alleged hitman
in Ind ia's north and north-west in the gen cess was down to superior strategies, orga schemes in North America, which began
eral election held in 2019 , and probably nisation and message d iscipline. In Ma after Canada's prime minister, Justin Tru
needs to do so again next year to win an dhya Pradesh, Mr Modi's party worked hard deau , first raised them in that country's
other majority. Ind ia's south seems to be to promote an image of collective leader parliament. The indictment has made In
"out of bounds" to it, says Rahul Verma of ship, sending several national figures to dia's earlier denials ring hollow. It will also
the Cen tre for Policy Research, a Delhi campaign and largely sidelining its 64- put stress on the improving relationship
based think-tank. "With this kind of per year-old chief minister, Shivraj Singh between India and the West, on intelli
formance, the BJ P is sitting in a much Chouhan, who may now be replaced. That gence co-operation in particular.
sweeter spot than it was a couple of helped offset public frustration with Mr American prosecutors say that in May a
months ago and the road for Congress has Chouhan's leadership and focus attention person described as "cc-1" hired Nikhil
become very, very difficult." on Mr Modi. The BJ P also concentrated on Gu pta, the alleged smuggler, to kill a Sikh
Congress will now face pressure to cede women voters, who have been voting in separatist understood to be Gurpatwant
more ground in negotiations over strategy larger nu mbers in recent polls. Congress Singh Pannun, an American citizen. cc-1
and candidates with the other 27 opposi may be cheered by its win in the south . It had worked in intelligence as a "senior
tion parties it j oined in July in a coalition has little to be encouraged by elsewhere. ■ field officer" and "was employed at all ti
called the Indian National Developmental mes ... by the Indian government". The
Inclusive Alliance, or I N D I A . The alliance agency is left unspecified, though the job
also looks unlikely to accept as its prime description is consistent with the Re
ministerial candidate a Congress leader, search & Analysis Wing (RAW) , India's for
such as 53-year-old Rahul Gandhi (whose eign spy service.
father, grandmother and great-grand father There are hints that this chief plotter
were all Indian prime ministers) . Mr Gand was acting on behalf of more senior Indian
h i said in a posting on X that he accepted officials. Mr Gupta told the h ired assassin
Indians' latest bruising verdict. "The ideo that "his co-conspirators directing the as
logical battle will continue," he added. sassination plot from India had extensive
The BJ P's victories in Rajasthan and resources." The Indian official allegedly got
Chhattisgarh were due, in large part, to Mr Gupta off the hook for a criminal charge
Congress's internal d ivisions. The govern at home. Most tellingly, he u rged the assas
ment of Rajasthan, which Congress had sin to avoid carrying out the killing i n June
controlled since 2018, had a good record , during sensitive us-India diplomacy, in
particularly on delivering welfare pro cluding a visit to Washington by Narendra
grammes. But its rule was marred by a bit Modi, India's prime minister.
ter two-year-long power struggle between The indictment corroborates the Cana
the chief minister, 72-year-old Congress dian allegations in some ways. Mr Gupta,
stalwart Ashok Gehlot, and his ambitious the smuggler, is said to have told the D EA
46-year-old deputy, Sachin Pilot. agent M r Pannun was one of " many tar
In Chhattisgarh, again governed by gets", also i ncluding Hardeep Singh Nijjar,
Congress since 2018, the party was also un the separatist killed i n Vancouver in June.
dermined by feuding between its chief The official allegedly provided photos of
minister and one of his deputies, as well as She's j u st mad a bo ut saffron Mr Nijjar's body to M r Gupta with an exhor- ►►
► tation to hurry up with killing Mr Pan nun. describes the i ndictment as part of an surd and motivated", said the American
These machi nations have sent ripples American plot to u ndermine Mr Modi's ones were "a matter of concern" and that
through the i ntelligence worl d , where dis drive for self-reliance i n defe nce. "The us assassination would be "contrary to gov
p utes are normal ly handled with quiet re wants to discipline us," he wrote. "So ernment policy". It convened a high-level
bukes. Canada publicly expelled RAw's rep something that could have been sorted out committee to look into the matter.
resentative from Ottawa. I nd ia kicked out across the table has been splashed every Notably, Samant Goel , RAW's chief at the
h is Canad ian equivalent from New Delhi. where. They nurtured a terrorist." time of the p lot, retired at the end of June.
Praveen Swami, an I nd ian journalist, re Yet the I ndian government's response One option for India could be to blame him
ported in the Print, a website, that America to the ind ictment has been "d iminuendo for the intrigue and absolve Mr Modi. That
h ad also expelled RAW's top official in San in contrast to the crescendo with Canada", would allow America and India to put the
Francisco and refused to allow a replace notes Nirupama Rao, who served as Ind ia's row behind them and get back to contain
ment for RAW's outgoing station chief in ambassador in Washington a decade ago. ing China. "My hunch", says Ms Rao, "is
Washington, and that Britain had kicked Ind ia's foreign ministry, which had de that the situation will be handled in a man
out RAW's number two in London. The scribed Mr Trudeau's accusations as "ab- ner that tensions are defused ." ■
Economist could not verify those reports .
Ties between America and India have
been through rough patches befo re. In the
1990s I ndia bristled at American criticism
of its conduct in Kashmir. I n 1998 America
The new geishas
imposed sanctions after India tested nuc
TO KYO
lear weapons. I n 2004 Rabinder Singh, a
J a pa n's accom p l ished wo men ente rta iners a re i n n ovating to su rvive
RAW official , vanished from Delhi. He is be
lieved to have been recruited and whisked
away by the C I A. In 2013 warming bilateral
ties were interrupted when America prose
A T F I RST B LUSH Azuha and Seiko, two
geishas in Tokyo's Asakusa neigh
bourhood, are paragons of Japanese
cuted Devyani Khobragade, Ind ia's deputy decoru m. With white-painted faces and
consul-general in New York, for visa fraud silky black hair, they dance elegantly in
and mistreatment of staff. silk kimonos for a small crowd . But then
The d ifferen ce today is that both coun they slip into relaxed goofi nes s . During a
tries are deeply invested in their bilateral drinking game, Azu ha crawls like a tiger.
relationship, which now spans defence, Seiko pretends to be an old crone with a
trade and technology. Both sides are there walking stick. When they lose, they
fore tread ing delicately. America's top in down glasses of beer.
telligence and secu rity officials have all This informal geisha behaviour is a
confronted Indian cou nterparts in private. response to hard times . I n the late 1920s
But the indictment carefully avoids blam there were around 80,000 of these
ing India's government as a whole. skilled women entertainers. Only 1, 000
Many influential Indians are defi ant. remain . Most Japanese men prefer more
Some are outraged that Mr Pannun and Mr informal and often cheaper hostess bars.
Nijjar are described as activists , not ex Few teenage girls are willing to commit
tremists, seeing this as symptomatic of In to the arduous education in mus ic, danc
dian interests being m isrep resented in the ing and etiquette on which the 18th
West. Vikram Sood, a former head of RAW, century geisha tradition is based . "Japa
nese are losing touch with geisha cul
ture," laments Suzuki Takeshi, who She da nces, sings a nd Zooms
manages a union of geis has in Asakusa.
This has prompted some of the remain "livehouse" events that omit the lavish
ing geishas to rethink. meals trad itionally consu med in hou rs
During the covid-19 shutdown, some long geisha parties, in favour of short
lau nched crowd fund ing projects and performances for as l ittle as 8, 000 yen
Zoom drinking sessions. Others h ave ($ 54) . By making geisha shows acces
opened cocktail bars. Traditionalists find sible, she hopes to woo you nger custom
these innovations jarring. Yet they are ers-and maybe recruit some geishas.
consistent with geisha history. The ser Such changes are helping to correct
vice was for centuries flexible. Geishas some misconceptions. Geishas have
have played board games with clients been over-romanticised and mischarac
and , during the post-war boom, golf. terised as prostitutes in Japanese as well
Geisha entertainment was always closer as Western culture-from "Memoirs of a
to today's hostess bars , or kyabakura , Geisha", a book by Arthur Golden , to "In
than the purists admit. the Realm of the Senses", a film by Oshi
Even before the pandemic, geishas ma N agisa. By pushing back on that, the
were targeting a more mixed crowd , innovations have helped win recruits .
including women and tourists. Many Ms S hiomi once worked for a n I T compa
have d ispensed with the p ractice of ny. She loves her new p rofession's beau
ichigensan okotowari, or "no entry with tifu l kimonos, dances and songs. "You
out introduction". Shiomi Fumie, anoth can't earn lots of money as a geisha," she
er geisha in Tokyo, started hold ing geisha says. "But it's i ncredibly cool."
A RAW dea l fo r Kha l ista nis
Austra lia n u niversiti es brightest citizens, notes Professor Scott. ogy with Australia. The pact wil l also lead
But there i s a downside. Some u niversi to collaborations on emerging technol
Campus politics ties have been accused of suppressing cri t
icism of China. Chinese student spies are
ogies such as artificial intelligence and
quantu m computing. Australian officials
alleged to be s nooping on campuses a nd say this will make the country's u n iversi
intimidating classmates. I n 2019 scuffles ties a b igger target for esp ionage. The Labor
SYD N EY
broke out in several universities between government l ed by Anthony Albanese has
Chinese nationalis ts and pro-democracy drafted legislation that would make it ille
Foreign students are pouring back
campaigners. Universities have been sub gal for academics to share sensitive re
into Australia
ject to a "sustained campaign of inti mida search with any foreigner, except Ameri
T China, enrolled
international student, from
H E F I RST
at the University of
tion, harassment, censorship and intelli
gence gathering", thu ndered a conserva
cans and Britons, without government ap
proval. Universities fear a stifling of their
Syd ney a century ago. Now its sandstone tive senator, James Paterson, last year. academic freedoms. Yet, for the moment,
buildings hum with foreign languages : al Partly as a result, the u n iversities are such measures seem a fairly modest curb
most half the university's students are becoming just a bit less dependent on Chi on their impressive openness. ■
from overseas . "For Asian kids, we value na. Scandals over foreign interference
the rankings a lot," says one of its Chinese were a big wake-up call, says Rory Medcalf
students, who asks not to be named . Aus of the Australian National University. Vice N o rth Korea n shippi ng
tralian universities perform well in them; chancellors are now wooing new markets.
the University of Sydney is one of nine
ranked among the world's top 100 institu
The Un iversity of Sydney is taking record Rusty buckets
numbers from Malaysia and Vietnam.
tions. Australia also has better weather Since 2018 the nu mber of I ndians studying
than Britai n or Canada, and less gun crime down u nder has risen by a third. Chinese
than America. When the student enrolled students now rep resent 33% of the foreign S EO U L
in 2015 , it "seemed like one of the friend li cohort, down from a peak of 38% .
North Korea i s getting more vessels,
est countries in the Western world ." Continued geopolitical tensions are
with China's help
Over the past two decades the number meanwh ile lead ing to more scrutiny of
of international students in Australia has
risen nearly fou rfold , to 440 , 000 in 2019 .
Its universities now attract more foreign
university research and partnerships. For
eign-interference laws passed by the for
mer conservative govern ment require uni
Lacross
AST C H R I STMAS EV Ethe Hu i Yi was
docked in Yantai, a Chinese port just
the Yellow Sea from the Korean pen
talent than those of any country except versities to inform secu rity agencies about insula. Then on January 2nd the Chinese
America and Britain. E ducation is Austra "arrangements" with " foreign entities ". cargo vessel switched off the transponder
lia's fourth-biggest export, worth around When, in 2019, Monash Un iversity signed a that reports its movements and d isap
3% of G D P . This has made its un iversities partn ership with the state-owned Com peared. I t was not seen again until early
dependent on the higher fees foreigners mercial Aircraft Corporation of China to February, when it was spotted offload ing
pay-a worry when Australia closed its develop aviation technology, there was an cargo in Nampo, North Korea's main port.
borders in 2020 and again later that year outcry. A parliamentary review last year A month later it had a new name, the Ku m
when a trade war erupted with China, called for it to be cancelled, as the work Gang 1, and was flying a North Korean flag.
which supplies about a third of the incom could have mil itary applications. Between January and May this year
ers. Yet most of the universities have man A more heated debate over security on North Korea's commercial fleet grew by 14
aged these shocks fai rly easily. And this campuses is brewing. Through AU KU S , a ships, according to the latest report by the
year foreign students have returned in trilateral security pact, America and Brit U N panel of experts that is tasked with
droves, with 425 , 000 now in Australia. ain will share nuclear-propulsion technol- monitoring the sanctions regime placed
The universi ties were largely u naffect on the country. Transferring vessels to
ed by the trad e spat. While slapping curbs North Korea is forbidden u nder it. Yet since
on Australia's exports from wine to coal , 2020 the hermit kingdom has acquired 52
China did n o t d eter i ts citizens from at ships. The sanctions-busting they facili
tend ing the country's universities. When tate is a l ifel ine for the economically iso
the pandemic struck, Chinese students lated country, in particular by connecting
were also more will i ng than others to stick it to its main patron, China.
with online learning, notes Peter Varghese, The fleet had been shrinking, to about
chancellor of the Universi ty of Queens 200 ships in 2016. But several rounds of
land. "One of the ironies was that the uni sanctions following a N orth Korean nuc
versities which were least impacted fman lear test in 2016 have made it more eco
cially were those that had the h ighest con nomically significant. After a long co
centrations of Chi nese students ," he says. vid-19-instigated shutdown, North Korea's
Mark Scott, vice-chancellor of the Univer ports have reopened and trade with China,
sity of Sydney, agrees: ''A point of vulnera by far the cou ntry's largest trading partner,
bility emerged as a point of strength." is approaching p re-pandemic l evels. With
Public i nvestment in Australian tertiary fewer foreign ships entering North Korea's
education is among the lowest in the O E C D. ports, its vessels h ave more responsibility
This makes the u niversi ties especial ly reli for ferrying goods in and out.
ant on the revenue foreign students p ro I ncreased trade left North Korea need
vide, including A$41bn ($27bn) i n fees and ing new ships. China was willing to help.
other spending in the year to Sep tember. The U N panel fou nd that ten o f North Ko
There is also value i n " the enduring dip rea's recent acquisitions were previously
lomatic benefit of building constructive Chinese-owned. Most return to China with
relationships" with some of the world 's Go ngxi, cobbers North Korean goods -the trade is mostly ►►
► between Nampo in North Korea and Da Much of it comes from criminal networks tiles and seafood to China, though both are
lian, in China's Liaon i ng p rovi nce. that smuggle subsidised Taiwanese oil under sanctions. China told the U N it had
Many of the vessels i mport grain or fe r North Korean tankers have recently been no information on North Korea's new
tiliser. They also bring in sanctioned seen loitering in the Taiwan Strait. An au ships. It also claimed to be "fully and strict
goods, such as luxu ry cars. These are often thority that monitors shipping activity via ly implementing" the sanctions, despite
transferred between ships on the h igh seas satellite told the panel of experts that the evidence to the contrary.
at night, with transponders switched off or North Korea may have exceeded its annual While "the Chi nese are showing con
transmitting a false location. H uge floating import limit as early as Apri l . tempt," says Hugh Griffiths , a former boss
cranes are used to load containers from Its fleet also helps it export coal, mostly of the panel of experts, "what the Russians
one vessel to another. to China, with help from Chinese barges. are doing is far worse." In October America
Such smuggling brings in essential Though the pandemic curbed this trade, it accused North Korea of sending 1,000 con
goods and revenue. North Korea is only is reported to have grown fourfold between tainers of weapons to Russia for its war i n
permitted to import 500, 000 barrels of re the first quarter of 2022 and the same per U krai ne. North Korean arms exports a re
fi ned oil a year, yet imports more illicitly. iod this year. And North Korea exports tex- also banned u nder the sanctions regime. ■
1B
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Chin a The Economist December gth 2023 37
► China is trying to buff u p its i mage by the country, and instigating a separatist H o ng Kong
p resenti ng itself as a peacemaker. In Feb war in Donbas, an eastern region.
ruary it i ssued a 12-point p roposal to settle The turmoil and violence d iscouraged More and more
the conflict. The p lan aroused little enthu Chinese i nvestors . But some analysts i n
siasm, especially in U kraine and among its Kyiv believe there may h ave been another lil<e the mainland
Western supporters , as it did not call for reason for their hesitancy: that China did
Russia to withdraw from U krainian territo not want to u pset Russia by forging too
ry. Ukraine has suggested that China act as close a relationship with a government
Why Agnes Chow fled Hong Kong and
a gu arantor of a peace deal. China has been that Russia despised, in a cou ntry that was
isn't likely to return
non-committal, perhaps worried about
having to show its hand should Russia vio
l ate the terms. But China's proposal did say
o nce part of the Soviet Union. "I think the
Russians did a lot to persuade China that
it's their sphere of influence," s ays Maksym
0 month, AgnesofChow
N T H E EV E her 27th birthday this
u pdated her insta
that the cou ntry was " ready to provide as Skrypchenko of the Transatlantic Dialogue gram feed for the first time in two and hal f
sistance and play a constructive role" in Centre, a think-tank in Kyiv. years . T h e former activist (pictured) was
post-war rebuilding. To many observers, It did not encourage China that U kraine jailed in 2020 for taking part in pro-democ
that looked as if China was interested in looked to the West for security. When a racy protests in Hong Kong a year earlier.
mobilising its huge capacity for the rapid private Chinese aerospace firm, Beij i ng Upon her release on bail in 2021, national
rol l-out of h igh-qual ity infrastructu re. Skyrizon, began attempting a takeover of security agents in the city confiscated her
But will China play much of a role in Motor Sich, a U krainian maker of aircraft passport. She is still u nder investigation.
what could become the biggest frenzy of engines, America complained that Skyri On Instagram she said that she lived in
construction in Europe s ince the one that zon was linked to the Chinese army. Uk fear, avoiding polities and struggling with
followed the second world war? This will raine duly blocked the sale in 2021. Skyri anxiety and depression.
depend in part on how the shooting ends. zon then fi led a case against the govern She also outlined the extraordinary
In the unlikely even t Russia winds u p in ment, demanding billions of dollars in steps that the authorities in Hong Kong
control of Ukraine, China would have a compensation. In 2022 U krai ne used war took in an effort to change her views. S he
stark choice to make : siding with Russia in time powers to nationalise the firm. Skyri was forced to write a letter expressing re
such a scenario would risk a meltdown of zon accused the au thorities of "unjustified gret for her actions and vowing not to con
relations between itself and the West. As plunderi ng of the legitimate rights and in tact other activists . In August five agents
sum ing the govern ment in Kyiv remains in terests of Chinese investors". U kraine has escorted her to Shenzhen, a city in main
control of most of Ukraine-and has an ap not yet followed Western countries by ban land China. They took her to an exhibit
petite for Chinese help-China wou ld have ning the use of Chinese technology in SG touting the country's ach ievements since
to calcu late how much its contribution networks. But Huawei must be wondering it began to reform its economy . She was
wou ld risk annoying Russia, whose friend whether that day is far off. made to pose for photographs at the head
ship it sees as vital to its own security. Public attitudes in Ukraine may not quarters of Tencent, a technology giant. I n
help Chinese bus inesses either. In 2019 the end , she had t o write a thank-you letter
No Belt No Road opinions of China in Ukraine were among to the police for showing her "the mother
China's involvement in Ukraine leading u p the most favou rable in Eu rope, with 57% lan d 's great development".
t o the latest invasion may offer clues t o the expressing positive views , according to the Ms Chow had to do all that in order to
way its thinking will work. On the face of it, Pew Research Centre, a think-tank in get her passport back. Earlier this year she
U kraine would appear an obvious target Washington. The invasion in 2022 has was accepted into a master's programme in
for Chinese investment. It joined the Belt soured the mood. Rating, a polling agency Canada. I n September, a day before she was
and Road Initiative, C hina's global infra in Kyiv, reported in June that 34 % of Ukrai due to leave, the document was returned to
stru ctu re-building scheme, in 2017. And it nians it su rveyed saw China as hostile, her. Now in Toronto, she has decided not to
is well placed as a potential conduit for compared with 12% at the end of 2021. go back to Hong Kong, perhaps for the rest ►►
Chinese goods destined for European mar There may be good economic reasons for
kets and has resources that C hina wants , seeking Chinese help with reconstruction,
ranging from wheat and maize to iron ore. says Oleksand r Merezhko, chairman of the
But observers in Kyiv see a long-standing foreign-affairs committee in U krai ne's
pattern of caution in China's business parliament. But, he adds, the country
dealings. Its share of foreign direct invest should bear in mind the "political price
ment in U kraine has been "very tiny", says and moral price" of accepting it.
Yurii Poita of the Kyiv-based New Geopoli Ukraine and its supporters are already
tics Research Network. A U krai nian for planning for the reconstruction phase.
eign- ministry official says that " not a sin They have held two conferences-in Luga
gle p roj ect has been done" in Ukraine un no, Switzerland , in 2022 and this year in
der the belt-and-road banner. London-to discuss Ukraine's post-war re
It o nce looked very d ifferent. I n 2013 covery. China d id not take part in either.
U kraine's then pro-Russian president, Vik The U krainian foreign-ministry official
tor Yanukovych , visited China and secured says he hopes it wil l join subsequent meet
what he said were deals involving $8bn of ings. " I f they want to be part of this , they
Chinese investment i n an array of p rojects should start engaging with i nternational
from airlines and shipbuilding to agricul efforts ," he says. In Beij i ng, however, that
ture. Those p lans were thrown into disar may seem l i ke abandoning a beloved
ray by a popular uprising agai nst M r Yanu friend. Providing Russia with moral sup
kovych that resulted in his flight to Russia port i s still China's priority- not figuri ng
in 2014 and a decisive political shift by Uk out how a cou ntry that China's state-con
raine away from Moscow. Russia swiftly re trolled media portray as a Western puppet
sponded by seizing Crimea, in the south of can win a distant-seeming peace. ■ H o ng Kong's loss
► Israel i officers say they have tried to the military operations advance, the pres end to this war. If America calls more loud
minimise h itting civilians when fighti ng sure on H amas rises and so do our chances ly for a quicker end to the fighti ng, the
an enemy that hides among them . They say of returning more hostages". Meanwhile, pressure wil l i nevitably grow.
that Hamas fighters account for about the captives remain i n grave jeopardy. Meanwhile Hizbullah, a Shia Islamist
5 , 000-or roughly one-third-of the total Some were wounded on October 7th and militia in Lebanon, is again launching mis
deaths reported, givi ng a rough ratio of two need treatment. In a tense meeting with siles and drones towards northern Israel as
civil ians killed for every combatant. But their families on December 5th , Mr Netan intensively as it did before the truce. And
this arithmetic is not winning over its yahu was accused by one relative of " put Houth i rebels in Yemen are busily attack
American ally. ting politics above retu rning the hostages". ing ships in the Red Sea (see next article) .
Lloyd Austin, America's defence secre The I D F is acutely aware that it is oper Israel's embattled p rime minister, whose
tary, said on December 2 nd that his lesson ating under a mix of i rreconcilable expec popularity is plu mmeting and whose rivals
from commanding forces against Islamic tations. Israel's politicians and most of its in the war cabinet are eyeing his job, is
State in Iraq was that "you can only win in people want it to destroy Hamas; the hos seeking desperately to avoid making hard
urban warfare by protecting civilians" and tages' families above all want their loved choices between those irreconcilable
that "if you drive them into the arms of the ones home; and Israel's i nternational allies aims. As the tanks rumble into southern
enemy, you replace a tactical victory with a want fewer Palestinian casualties and an Gaza, crunch time looms. ■
strategic defeat."
In an attempt to lower the rate of civil
ian casualties, the I D F is trying to micro The Red Sea
manage the movements of Gaza's inhabit
ants. In the first stage of the war it simply The new peril
ordered them to vacate northern Gaza,
forcing some 1. 2m out of Gaza city and its
surrounding towns. It has since issued a
map that divides Gaza into a j igsaw puzzle
of 623 sections. It sends out text messages
and air-drops leaflets telling people which
Why Yemen's Houthis are attacki ng ships in the Red Sea
ones to leave and which are safe.
Relief organisations say this is u n real
istic and ineffective amid the chaos of Ga
za. In order to move to safety, the shell
A the first of their kind ,
LT H O U G H N OT
the missile attacks on three bulk carri
ers in the Red Sea by Yemeni Houthi rebels
tacks would have been welcomed by its
government, the Houthis may well have
been acting off their own bat.
shocked popu lation is inevitably finding it on December 3rd marked a sharp rise in the Israeli intelligence sou rces beg to differ.
hard to escape I s rael's bombardment or risk to commercial shipping in the region . They are convinced that I ran ordered the
Hamas's attem pts to fight back. Even if ci The USS Ca rney, a n American Arleigh attacks and that they are being co-ordinat
vilians do follow Israeli guidelines, they Burke class gu ided-missile destroyer, shot ed by Brigad ier-General Abdolreza Shah
will have to crowd into a shrin king area down several unmanned aerial veh icles laei, a veteran commander of Iran's expedi
alongside the thousands of Hamas fighters (uAvs) that appeared to be heading in its di tionary Quds force. The hope in Tehran is
who will doubtless follow them. Moreover, rection while it was sailing to assist the that the attacks will drive up oil and ship
Israel has yet to p resent a comprehensive damaged carriers. Fortunately the attacks ping prices, putting pressure on Israel's al
humanitarian plan for these su pposed ly caused no injuries and fairly minor dam lies to rein it in. What seems certain is that
safe areas . During the truce, Israel agreed age to the three ships. more such attacks are likely.
to allow in 200-300 aid lorries a day, America's Central Command said it was Emile Hokayem, an expert at the Inter
though on average only 170 crossed the considering "appropriate responses" to the national Institute for Strategic Stud ies
border from Egypt and the number has attacks , which had been " fully enabled by (1 1 ss) in London who knows how I ran uses
-
since fallen to around 100 a day. Iran". This careful wording reflects the its proxies in the region, says the attacks
Binyamin Netanyahu's government probability that, though the m issiles were also mark a strategic opportunity for the
faces other pressu res , too. For the sake of undoubtedly supplied by I ran and the at- Houthis-in a number of ways. First, by
Israel 's economy he must start scaling l inking them to Israel's assault on Hamas
SY R I A
LE B.
down the war and let many of the 360, 000 in Gaza, the Houthis can improve their
I RAQ I RA N
reserve soldiers go back to work. Yet some standing in the Arab world, where the Pal
Suez
parts of Mr Netanyahu's far-right coalition Canal estinian cause remains popular and emo
have threatened to peel away from his gov � I SRA E L tions are running h igh. The attacks let the
ernment if he winds down the ground Houth is show, as they always claim, that
campaign too soon. The they are on the side of the oppressed .
Gulf
EGY PT
Strait of /
Meanwhile the families of the 138 hos Moreover, they can hit a range of targets,
tages still held in Gaza (some of whom Isra Hormuz not j ust ones at home or in Saudi Arabia.
el reckons are dead) are clamou ring for an SAU D I A RA B I A UAE Second, they send out a clear signal that
other agreement with Hamas to get them the Red Sea is now a legitimate theatre for
back. During the truce Hamas freed no the struggle against Israel and that the
Red
S U DA N
hostages (mainly women a nd child ren) , Hou this are even willing to go after Ameri
i ncluding 24 foreign workers. But the deal Sea O MA N can warships as well as commercial ship
YE M E N
brokered by Qatar collapsed when Hamas ping that may have some relationship with
refused to release the remaining 17 women Israel , however tenuous. The sophistica
and children it still holds. Israel i nsists tion of the attacks also shows that the
► em missile and UAV forces, also of the nss, Pa lesti ne's economy the whole amount. Accepting it would, he
Money troubles
s ays the H ou this have received a h uge says, have been a "violation of our social
number of anti-ship missiles and drones contract" with Palestinians in Gaza.
from I ran. They have also seized and adapt Those two factors have led to an 80%
ed some from Yemen's regular army. The drop in the PA's revenues si nce October
Houth is have at least ten different anti 7th, leaving Mr Bishara with a fi scal deficit
ship missiles in their arsena l , i ncluding RAM A LLAH
of $1. 5bn (roughly 10% of GDP in the Pales
sea-skimming Exocet-type missiles based tinian territories) . In November it was u n
Israel is strangling the West Bank's
on Chinese designs, such as the al-Mandab able to pay public servants their salaries at
administration
1 and 2 . These have a range of about 120km. all, though it did manage to convince the
The Houthis have the Quds z-o and Sayad
cruise missiles, too, which boast ranges of
T H E WAR in Gaza has ushered in a grim
new economic reality in Ramallah, the
Bank of Palestine to offer some employees
loans worth half of their pay.
up to 800km and which have radar, infra de facto capital of the West Bank. Su per Whereas foreign aid once made up 30%
red or electro-optical seekers to home i n markets have hired security guards to fight of the PA's operating budget, it paid for just
on their targets . off shoplifters. Thousands of bu sinesses 0 .7% of it this year. But the Palestinian
The Houth is have an arsenal of anti have closed . One official reckons the cur economy still rel ies heavily on aid. Donors
ship ballistic missiles that ru ns from rent economic crisis is worse than that have shifted much of their d irect budget
short-range locally produced systems to caused by the covid-19 lockdowns. ary sup port to development financing, in
longer-range and much heavier missiles , About 160, 000 Palestinians employed part because of frustration at the PA's ram
such as t h e Asef a n d t h e solid-propellant in Israel and in Jewish settlements in the pant corruption .
Tankil (based respectively on the I ranian West Bank have had their work permits re That is o n e reason why the PA is in a
Fateh and Raad-500 missiles , which carry a voked since October 7th. Tens of thousands poor position to deal with economic crises.
300kg warhead and are designed to hit a more worked in Israel illegally. Before the Another is that it cannot get funds from the
warship up to 500km away) . Because of the war their salaries pu mped some 1.4bn I M F, becau se it is not a member-state of the
li mited damage reported as a result of the shekels ($37om) a month into the West fu nd. With no central bank it has no lender
latest attacks , it seems l ikely that smaller Bank's economy. of last resort to bail ou t its ban ks , some of
missiles were used. Because it does not control its own bor which are starting to sweat after writing off
Indeed , such are the Houthis' capabili ders , the Palestinian Au thority (PA) has to at least $1bn in loans in Gaza. In normal
ties that they may well have the potential rely on Israel to collect import taxes on its times lending to PA employees is a tidy
to do in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, the Red behalf, which account for 64 % of its total source of income. Yet unless they a re paid
Sea's southern choke-point, what Iran has revenue. When the Gaza war broke out, Be their salaries soon, thousands will begin to
often threatened to do in the Strait of Hor zalel Smotrich, Israel's far-right fi nance default on their consumer debts .
muz. Though a long-range Houthi ballistic min ister, refused to transfer any of this Adding to the banks' woes are signs of
missile aimed at Eilat was shot down last money to the PA, though the Israeli cabinet capital flight, especially by Palestinians
month by an Israeli Arrow 3 interceptor, later compromised, saying it would with with a foot in Jordan or in the Gulf. Mr
Yemen is not an easy spot from which to at hold the portion paid by the PA to Gaza. Bis hara has reduced the PA's borrowing
tack Israel. It is , however, perfect for strik Though Hamas has controlled the s trip from Palestinian ban ks and is loth to in
ing ships in the Red Sea. since 2007, the PA still covers Gaza's power crease it again because of the risks this
A variety of Iranian attack-drones , in bill to Israel and pays the salaries of thou could pose to financial stability.
cluding the Shahed 136 that Russia is using sands of public workers including those in To stave off the PA's financial collapse
against Ukraine, is beefing up the Houthis' the health ministry and the official Pales Mr Bishara could try to persuade Mr Smo
arsenal. As far as those shot down by the tinian security forces, who are paid to stay trich to hand over the customs revenues.
Carney are concerned, Mr Hinz thinks at home. In response Shoukri Bishara, the But there are few signs Israel's finance
these were probably intell igence and sur PA's finance minister, furiously rej ected minister will have a change of heart, even
veillance drones that the Iranians have though America has tried to alert him to
cloned from America's RQ-21. In addition to the security risks if the PA goes bust.
aerial drones, the Hou this also have naval America and the E U are particularly
ones and mine-laying devices. worried about the already meagre salaries
American warships in the region are of the more than 30,000 members of the
not at great risk from Houth i missiles . Palestinian security forces in the West
Their defences are simply too good, Bank. Without pay these men with guns
though a lucky strike from a salvo of at wil l have l ittl e incentive to keep turning up
tacks can never be ruled out. But it is an for work. Some have already stopped. "We
other matter as to whether on their own can tel l him [Mr Smotrich] his pol icies are
they can p rovide much p rotection for com risking the fi nancial collapse of the PA,"
mercial shipping. Following the la test i nci says a diplomat in Jerusalem. "But for him
dents America's national security adviser, that's a long-coveted dream."
Jake S u ll ivan, suggested talks were u nder The PA has asked Qatar for $goom to get
way with allies to establish a larger n aval through the next six months. But so far
task-force in the Red Sea. neither Qatar nor any of the other Gulf
If the Houthis keep shooting, there states seems prepared to pay I s rael's obli
could be increasing pressu re on the Amer gations, says Raja Khalidi, a Palestinian
i cans to go after missile sites i n Yemen, as economist. I f they did, it might further
suming they could be found. Yet the last tempt Israel to deduct the money it is
thing America will want i s to be dragged meant to hand over under a protocol of the
i nto Yemen's civil war, which Joe Biden's Oslo accords, the peace agreement be
administration has recently been tryi ng tween Israel and the Palesti nians.
hard to d ampen down. ■ Crossi ng th e l i n e A handout might also allow the PA to set ►►
► aside desperately needed reforms. "Tem that military decisions are being made Mr Netanyahu exposes his political
porary mechanisms often have a terrible mainly by Yoav Gallant, the defence minis weakness with his i nability to rein in ju
way of becoming permanent and ineffec ter, along with two other former generals, nior mi nisters who are maki ng inflamma
tive," says Mr Khalidi . It could also offer a Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot, the two tory and damaging remarks. These i nclude
lifeline to a sclerotic a nd corrupt i nstitu leaders of the centrist National Unity party. the grandly titled i ntelligence mi nister (al
tion that few Palesti nians believe c a n ever Both joined the government soon after Ha beit that she has no authority over I s rael's
bring about a Palestinian state. mas attacked Israel on October 7th to serve intelligence services) , who called for Ga
America has been tou ting the idea of a in a new war cabinet. za's people to be resettled in Egypt, and the
" revitalised PA" as the only serious alterna This group, which has five members in heritage minister, who mused about d rop
tive to Hamas's rule in Gaza. Yet if the pres all, makes all the key decisions to do with ping a nuclear bomb on Gaza.
sure of the economic war being waged the war, yet Mr Netanyah u is largely isolat Within the rul i ng Likud party, stirrings
against the PA by Israel's far-right govern ed within it. Mr Gallant, a member of the of rebell ion are afoot. Mr Gallant and Nir
ment is not relieved soon, there may be lit prime minister's Likud party, has had Ii ttle Barkat, the independent-minded business
tle left of the PA to run the West Bank, let love for his leader since Mr Netanyahu minister, are among those thought to be
alone to govern Gaza. ■ tried in vain to sack him in March. Mr Net pondering challenges for the leadership.
anyahu is wary of Mr Gantz, too, who is far But Mr Netanyahu still controls his party
ahead of him in the polls: three-quarters of and will be hard to dislodge.
I sraeli pol iti cs Israelis recently said they wanted Mr Net There are two ways to replace the prime
The irrelevant
anyahu to resign, either immediately or minister. One is through a "constructive
once the war is over. no-confidence" measure whereby a major
The three former generals in the war
prime minister
ity of the Knesset, Israel's parliament,
cabi net are much closer than Mr Netanya votes for a new prime minister from
hu to the serving generals in the Israel De among its members . There may soon be a
J E R U SA L E M
fence Forces ( I D F) , upon whom the prime parliamentary maj ority against Mr Netan
mi nister has tried to pin all the blame for yahu, but the fractious Knesset is much
Binyamin Netanyahu is at the mercy of
the debacle of October 7th. That was when less likely to agree on a rep lacement.
his hardline coalition
Hamas caught Israel u nprepared with a A more plausible outcome, once the
Southern u ne m ployment the centu ry, before the fi nancial crisis de
A tough climb
stroyed it-and their job prospects . More
recently the pandemic hit tourist destina
tions hard. Hence in Italy, Greece and Por
tugal an unusually large share of the un
employed have been jobless for more than
six months (see chart 2) .
But crises are only part of the answer.
MADRID AND ROME
When a good bit of the working-age popu
Europe's sun belt must do more to improve employment rates
lation is consistently unemployed , struc
► the south than in the north. I n Cadiz and telecoms tower overlooking the city is l it
Granada the rate is above 20%, compared Been a long ti m e up in Serbian colours; it sits on the mou n
with 6% in some of Spain's n orthern re U ne mployed peop le* b y d u ration tai n from which Serbs shelled the mostly
gions. Workers hesitate to move for tem of unemployment, 2022, % Bosniak (Bosnian Muslim) capital during
porary contracts, which are too common i n ■ Less than six m onths ■ Six months or more the siege of 1992-95. Last month Milorad
southern Europe. Selling a home i n the Dodik, the Bosnian Serb leader, reiterated
0 20 40 60 80 1 00
cheaper south may not bring in enough to that all Serbs should l ive in one state,
G reece
buy one in the expensive north . And if which would spell Bosnia's disintegration .
Italy
grand parents provide child care, leaving A l l hope is not lost. You just have t o look
Portugal
them behind creates new problems. for it. The small town of Vares, 50km north
Spain
Finally, many firms in southern cou n of the capital, has suffered as much as a ny
Germany
tries have problems with the h iring pro where from the failure of politicians to put
France
cess. Each country has its own issues. In country ahead of ethnic and personal in
·-
OECD overage
Spain, temporary contracts are widespread Britain
terests. Now, however, there is a buzz: in
because permanent employees have long U n ited States
January a British mining fi rm is set to be
been overly regulated and are hard to fire. Source: OECD *15- to 64-year-olds
gin production, extracting silver, lead and
Firms have as l ittle incentive to invest in zinc. Since 2017 Adriatic Metals has been
the skills of temps as workers do to move prospecting here. When it completes its
for a short-term gig. Recent reforms have for Macron, after he promised 5% u nem planned investment of $25om in the pro
made permanent contracts less burden ployment," reckons Phillipe Martin , head j ect, says Paul Cronin, its managing d irec
some, and the share of part-time contracts of France's Cou ncil of Economic Analysis , tor, it will be the largest single post-war
is falling. That is a start. In France central an independent body private investment in Bosnia.
ised wage bargaining and h igh minimum Unemployment is partly an unfortu In 1991 Vares was home to 22,200 peo
wages and generous unemployment bene nate side-effect of an otherwise good as ple. Today, says Zd ravko Marosevic, the
fits have long depressed employment. Re pect of southern Europe: its communities mayor, there are barely 8,000. War and the
cent changes modelled on Germany's re and families are tight-knit. Rather than collapse of the mining industry led to an
forms in the early 2000s have helped, bu t moving elsewhere to find work, young exodus. With few jobs, Vares has far more
have not gone far enough. peop le tend to live with their parents and old than young. In 2022 91% fewer babies
As for Italy, its many small fi rms tend to keep looking. That is bad for growth , eco were born here than in 1991.
have low productivity and hence low wag nomic efficiency and j obs. But not all par The town is surrounded by bucolic hills
es. Red tape discourages them from grow ents, or children , seem to mind. ■ and forests, and mining is as controversial
ing bigger. The current government wants here as anywhere. Critics say the company
to cut taxes on lower-earn ing workers and is paying low concession fees . Ecologists
boost temporary contracts. The latter Bosnia and officials from neighbou ring Kakanj
Prospecting
might improve employment numbers, but charge that pollution from the mine is be
will worsen conditions for workers unless ginning to poison their water supply. Mr
for hope
permanent contracts are also deregulated. Cronin rej ects these claims, which he says
In any case, a country that has generated government inspectors have refuted. In
almost no economic growth for decades Bosnia, political action is often a way for
will continue to struggle to create jobs . VARES
different grou ps to angle for their own cut.
Politicians in southern countries do not So far 750 j obs have been created , two
A new mine in a country that has long
seem undu ly bothered by any of this. That been paralysed by politics thirds fi lled by locals. Every d irect job
may be because some of the "unemployed" creates up to two more indirectly, says Mr
are actually working in sou them Europe's u F YO U WRITE that, they will kill you," Cronin. Empty flats are being refurbished
large shadow economy. With employment I says an interviewee after explaining to house workers from other parts of Bos
rising anyway due to the post-covid recov how local politics is connected to crime nia and from abroad . Dario Dodik, who
ery, there has been little pressure to tackle and corruption. Your correspondent runs a l ocal restaurant, has hired six new
thorny structural issues. That may change would hardly be the first to add ress the staff who came home from abroad, four of
-
now that the recovery is coming to an end. topic. On November 8th the European them to work on his contract to cater for
"The rising nu mbers are a huge problem Commission issued a scathing report on miners . The revival shows that when polit
Bosnia-Herzegovina, writing of "criminal ical and ethnic interests are put as ide, in
infiltration" i n the cou ntry's politics, vestment comes, j obs are created and local
From great heights courts and economy. It also attacked a Puti decline is halted. That has already been the
U nemployment rate*, 0/o nesque d raft l aw in the Republika S rpska, case in towns such as Gorazde, which has a
30 the Serb-dominated part of the cou ntry, thriving car-parts industry, not to mention
which would classify many civil-society Sarajevo, which has a booming I T sector.
25 groups as " foreign agents". Mr Marosevic was elected mayor on the
The commission nonetheless recom slate of Bosnia's largest Croat party. All of
20
mended that the E U open accession negoti Bosnia's big parties are ethnically based . In
15 ations with Bosnia if certain conditions are power they d ispense jobs and contracts to
ful filled . There is no chance they wil l be i n cronies. Fed up with this, Mr Marosevic
10 the foreseeable future. O n the 28th anni quit his p arty in September. "This is a state
versary of the peace deal end ing the war i n of thieves," he says angrily. Few Bosnians
5
Bosnia, politics i s still war by other means. disagree. Once the mine gets going, he
0 Since September a battle of flags has says, "all the other wheels that were
201 0 1 2 14 16 18 20 23 been fought in Saraj evo, the capital. A giant stopped for the last 30 years will start spin
Source: OECD *1 5- to 64-year-olds
Bosnian wartime banner was raised close ning too." That means jobs, income and a
to the Republika Srpska's boundary. Now a future for a town that was dying. ■
R U SS I A
ground . Yuri , shot through his arm , fel l er i s managing less wel l . Vladik whispers
too. Two more bullets skimmed h i s crown, to explain why he keeps bringing coins to
passing through his hoodie. The boy his mother's grave: "She'll need them to
hugged the ground, playing dead , while buy something in heaven . Like ice cream."
G EORGIA the blood of his dyi ng father trickled As Vladimir Pu ti n's war gri nds on, more
against h is body. He ran when he saw the child ren from military families are attend
soldier had left. ing the camps. Sofia, a ten-year-old from
Nagorno Yuri is still tormented by that grey win Khmelnytsky, in the west, is still mou rning
/ Karabakh
1 (1991 border) ■ ter day, 20 months ago. Across Ukraine, the death of her father in May 202 2 . When
Baku tens of thousands of children l ike him are he went to the front, he told her he was go
AZERBAIJAN
coping with the loss of parents in harrow ing to "train a soccer team". Now she is
ing circumstances . The exact number is se afraid to let her mother, a military medic,
cret, since it correlates with the number of out of her sight. Some children have lost
Caspian
I RA N Sea
soldiers killed in action. But the trau ma both parents . Sasha, 14, lost her mother
1 50 km casts a devastating shadow. "It's frighten when Russians fi red a missile at Krama
ing to think what the next generation will torsk station in April 2022. Her father went
look like," says Oksana Lebedeva, a busi to fight and was killed six months later.
► sponses will too, he argues. Mr Pashinyan nesswoman tu rned philanthropist who Yuri, now 16 , is one of the oldest at the
rules ou t serious steps such as leavi ng the has organised "grief camps" to help reha camp. He says you nger child ren find it
csTo or expelling the Russian army from bilitate over 300 U krainian child ren. harder to process what they are feeling:
its base in Armenia. Ms Lebedeva, who was inspired to help "They haven't developed their psyche or
Armenia's room for manoeuvre is slim. when she saw Yuri give an interview last whatnot properly yet." In the months after
Russia is its biggest trad ing partner by far year, says the scale of the problem means his father's shooting, Yuri was consumed
and provides nearly all its grain and energy U kraine has to think u p its own solutions . by a thirst for revenge. He tracked down the
imports. Many Armenians depend on re There is n o ready-made formula or inter ki ller on a Ukrainian secret-service data
mittances from family members working national protocol. Her grief camps adapt base, recognising his nose and eyes, and
in Russia. In November Russia began turn ideas from conflicts around the globe. She left a message on his social-med ia ac
ing away Armenian lorries for "phytosani has settled on a th ree-week residential count: "You ki lled my dad bu t didn't get
tary" (plant-health) reasons, which Arme programme, which she runs every month me." The soldier replied with the verbal
nia sees as a shot across the bow. in Lutsk, a small city in western Ukraine. equ ivalent of a shrug. In the age of the in
Armenia's choices are unpromising. There is daily individual and group psy ternet, grieving children are often only a
America's cred ibi lity was hit when a State chotherapy, as well as art therapy, dog ther click away from talking to a parent's killers ,
Department official told Congress that it apy, theatre and sport. The kids are encou r or seeing a photo of their corpse.
wou ld "not tolerate" an attack on Nagorno aged to cry and show emotion, something Yuri says therapy has helped soften his
Karabakh , yet when Azerbaijan invaded they may not be able to d o at home. Some anger. He now feels an intense urge to help
five days later the American response was arrive too traumatised to speak. But if psy those arou nd him. But those closest to him
limited merely to critical statements. The chologists reach them quickly, progress are taking no chances. Ms Lebedeva has ar
head of the E u 's monitoring mission in Ar can be rap id . ranged for him to study at a prestigious
menia recently admitted that, in a war, the Three weeks are rarely enough. Even in college in New York, where he can see a
unarmed monitors would flee. "They can the final stages of a camp The Economist way of life that is not war. "We worry his
not be human shields," said a Western dip witnessed in early October, pain was never desire for revenge will push him to the
lomat in Yerevan . The main problem, he far away. War showed itself everywhere front lines," says Ms Lebedeva. "His mother
said , was that the Armenians themselves in play, paintings, tears and mood swings. told me she wou ldn't be able to cope with
"don't know what the endgame is". ■ Almost all the children go to bed with another fu neral." ■
torches , Ms Lebedeva says , frightened o f
the dark. Some of them take their anger out
U kra ine's wa r o rpha n s on a boxing bag they cal l " Pu tin", which or
ganisers replace every three weeks , beaten
Ice cream in to shreds. Others mould Play-Doh into fig
In Europe, g reen politicia ns struggle even as their policies reshape the con tinent
in a handful of national governments, including in Germany, I re
land and Belgium. A su rge of support i n Eu ropean elections in
2019 saw the Greens' parl iamentary group (which includes a slew
of regionalist parties) control 72 of the 705 seats in Brussels, their
best result ever. Not coincidentally, an ambitious Green Deal u n
veiled soon after committed the EU to cut its carbon emissions to
" net zero" by 2050, with a 5 5 % reduction on 1990 level s by the end
of the decade. ''There would not have been a Green Deal if there
had not been a green wave in 2019 ," says Melanie Vogel , a French
senator who co-chairs the European Green Party.
Alas, waves tend to crash . The backlash against greens is now
in full swing. I n Germany, it was a case of going too far too fast.
Most notably, a push by Die Gril nen to make climate-friendly heat
pu mps mandatory before su fficient skilled labour was at hand to
in stall them backfired. Having once-briefly-been Germany's
most popu lar party, the Greens now languish in fou rth place.
Their co-figu rehead , Robert Habeck, is the economy minister at a
time when people are feeling the pinch: once Germany's most
popu lar politician, he languishes in 16th place now. In provincial
elections earlier this year Dutch voters rebelled against nature
protection rules that were throttl ing econom ic activity, propelling
a farmers ' party bashing green ru les into fi rs t place ; in national
► agers are more likely to say these are ab or pushing for diagnoses, thereby relabel
sent than peers in other rich countries. Young, not carefree ling milder forms of distress as mental
The pandemic will have triggered some Britain, people in contact with health problems. Increased prevalence in
illnesses. Covid infections have had a di NHS mental-health care services, % turn drives more awareness, creating a
rect impact on the brains, and mental By age group perpetual upwards cycle.
health, of some. Eating disorders, usually • 2017-18 • 2021-22 Relabelling can be easy. Your corre
associated with anxiety, have exploded spondent took an online self-assessment
0 5 10 15 20
among young women. An N H S survey in 0-5 for A D H D offered by Oxford CBT, a private
2023 found that a fifth of 8- to 16-year-olds 6-1 0 mental-health clinic, in which the highest
and a quarter of 17- to 19-year-olds in E ng 1 1-1 5
possible score is 48. She answered first as
land had a probable mental disorder, up she normally would (19/48) and then took
16- 1 9
from 12% and 10% in 2 017. the test again in order to deliberately score
But these arresting statistics are also a 20-29 zero. In both cases the tool concluded that
•
reason to question what exactly is going on 30-39 she "may be experiencing low-level signs
•
with the nation's mental health. They typi 40-49 of ADHD or another difficulty".
cally come from self-reported surveys,
which produce less reliable results than
clinical interviews; in 2023 they were
50-59
60-69
70-79
•• The medicalisation of milder problems
is not necessarily helpful for individuals. A
student with low-level anxiety who is ex
based on the "Strengths and Difficulties 80-89 empted from a class presentation, for ex
Questionnaire" (S DQ) , a short online sur 90+ ample, might end up exacerbating the
vey. Youngsters (or their parents) were in Source: NHS Digital
symptoms through avoidance.
vited to respond to 25 statements such as "I Mental-health treatments are not al
usually share with others (food, games, ways productive. A study from the Univer
pens, etc)" and " Other people my age gen ed having a mental-health issue. According sity of Cambridge found that volunteers
erally like me". They were categorised as to a recent government study, 76% of par were happier when they learned to sup
having a probable mental-health condi ents with school-aged children sought press negative thoughts, not bring them up
tion if their scores exceeded a threshold. help or advice for their child's mental as they might in psychotherapy. Another
A survey cannot exercise the judgment health concern from 2021 to 2022. "You're study, of mindfulness courses in 84 British
of clinicians or determine if an "abnormal" going to lose any sense of what mental ill schools, found no evidence that they
result reflects a mental disorder or a nor ness is if you start to apply itto 30%, 50% of helped pupils' mental health more than
mal response to an abnormal event. Dur the population," says Adrian Massey, au normal teaching. "There is a need for much
ing the pandemic a girl who preferred to thor of a book called "Sick-Note Britain". better, more rigorous science about what
"play alone" and was "easily scared" would Clinicians see these changes in their works for whom and when," says Miranda
have been adhering to official guidelines own practices. "We're getting more and Wolpert, director of mental health at Well
and cultural expectations. On the SDQ more expert parents and families coming come, a charitable foundation.
these statements would push her closer to in [who] know what they need to access," Yet incentives work with the grain of
a threshold for a mental disorder. says Dr Ramya Mohan, a consultant psy medicalisation. A diagnosis can mean
The official definitions of mental disor chiatrist who works in the private sector as more time for a child to sit an exam; evi
ders have also broadened. The fifth and lat well as the N H S . Mersey Care, an N H S trust, dence of a condition is needed to unlock
est edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical is carrying out 400% more ADHD assess welfare payments. Of the record 2.6m
Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM), a wide ments for adults than it was four years ago; Britons who are not working or actively
ly recognised resource for psychiatrists Dr Nair Thomas, its chief medical officer, looking for jobs because they are sick, half
worldwide, was released in 2013. It lowered notes that the increased awareness has re report having depression, bad nerves or
the thresholds for some of its 298 listed sulted in more people presenting with anxiety (these may not be their primary
disorders, meaning that fewer symptoms "subthreshold diagnoses". health condition). "For the individual, cer
are required for a diagnosis. For attention In a recent co-authored paper, Dr tification is necessary as a means of legiti
deficit hyperactivity disorder (AD H D ) , for Foulkes suggests that while awareness mising their inactivity to society," writes
-
example, DSM-S reduced the number of may indeed help some people to recognise Dr Massey. Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, is
symptoms from six to five. Impairments previously unreported symptoms, it may making work-capability assessments more
once had to be "clinically significant"; now also lead to some people self-diagnosing, stringent (as well as announcing more ►►
they need to "reduce the quality of social,
academic or occupational functioning".
Shifting diagnoses are not unique to P ill health
psychiatry. But without objective biomark
ers, the boundaries demarcating mental Britain, April 201 6=100 Antidepressants, daily doses per 1,000 people
illness look arbitrary. This is particularly 500 1 50
so when cultural definitions of mental
health disorders are changing. A study 400 1 20
published in 2019, measuring the effect of a Australia Canada
mental-health awareness campaign in 300 90
England, showed that public understand
-
France Germany
ing of what constitutes a mental illness has 200 60
Doctorst in child and
adolescent psychiatry
j
widened to include normal responses 1 00 30
like stress and grief-to life experiences. Italy
When the mental-health net expands in 0 0
this way, more and more people are likely 2016 1 7 18 19 20 21 22 23 2010 12 14 16 18 20 22
to get scooped up in it. In one survey in Sources: British Medical Association; OECD *Child and adolescent mental-health services tFull-time equivalent
2022 some 57% of British students report-
► talking-therapy places to help those with most 390, 000 referrals, a third more than As a result, N H S care is not readily avail
anxiety and depression to work). they did four years ago. More than 720,ooo able for the most acutely ill. A decade ago,
It can also be easier- and cheaper- for young people received support from N H S Danni, now 28, feels she was "saved" by an
institutions to pass structural problems off funded community services in the year to early-intervention psychosis team in her
as medical ones. Stress and erratic behav March, a 26% increase from two years local N H S , which helped her to stop believ
iour may be symptoms of mental-health ago. At least 1. 8m people are waiting for ing that classmates were spying on her.
problems but they may also indicate toxic mental-health treatment. When she visits her GP now, he is often "at
workplaces or wider deprivation. Poverty, People who can afford to are able to a bit of a loss" to find a team that will take
family trauma and isolation are by far the jump the queues by going private. After an her. Another patient waiting for treatment
biggest risk factors for mental illness; initial consultation costing £ 300 ($380), for bipolar disorder was told to download
among children, kids from the poorest Oxford C BT charges £1, 200 for an A D H D as an app with an N H S logo, which directed
households are the biggest users of N H S sessment. An appointment is available the her to private providers. "Services have
mental-health services. following week; in the N H S it could be a moved away from treatment into signpost
Greater awareness is good in pri nciple: multi-year wait. (If a diagnosis is issued , it ing," says one psychologist.
it enables people who are suffering to get can be used to oblige an employer or The N H S often leave emergencies to the
help and to have their struggles recog school to provide "reasonable adjust police, who in England spend around 1m
nised. But "there is a very real risk of us go ments" to ensure that those with disabili hours a year with mental-health patients
ing too far, especially because we've been ties are not disadvantaged.) in A & E departments (some forces, includ
flooded with information from all sourc A vibrant private market sucks in clini ing the Met in London, are now pushing
es," notes Dr Mohan. Which leads to the cians as well as clients. "[In the private sec back). "We unfortunately have something
second argument: inflated demand is bad tor] I could be doing less for more money of a two-tier system where people who can
for those who most need treatment. but I could also not be putting my physical afford it can access services quicker than
body at risk," says Jessica Valentine, a psy those who can't," admits Dr Goldin.
Serious problems chologist who used to work in the N H S and Even as mental-health awareness has
The drive to raise awareness of mental now provides private therapy. You "need to risen , those living with severe mental ill
health has tended to focus on common dis learn breakaway techniques and what hap ness have been faring worse. They were
orders like an xiety and depression, condi pens if someone strangles you," she recalls five times more likely to die prematurely
tions which, terrible as they can be, do not of her N H S experience. Another psycholo during the pandemic than the rest of the
seem any more prevalent in Britain than gist who trains new salaried clinicians says population, a mortality gap that was wid
other rich Western countries. Less atten that of the 31 trainees she supervises each ening lon g before then . Con dition s often
tion is paid to conditions like schizophre year, all used to stay in the N H S ; now half get attention only once they have become
nia and bipolar disorder, even though Brit go part-time to work privately. acute. In Wirral 29% of inpatients this year
ain has the highest rates of severe mental There are not enough N H S doctors to were not known to mental-health services
illness Europe. keep up with demand, particularly in child before they were hospitalised for their pro
One study by academics at King's Col an d adolescent psychiatry (see chart on blems; that is up from 8% in 2019.
lege London found that the probability that prior page). The Royal College of Psychia Some who cannot get help end up being
a newspaper article would stigmatise de trists says there are 6% more consultant criminalised . At least 50, 000 people are
pression dropped significantly between psychiatrists in the N H S in England than detained each year under the Mental
2008 and 2019, but stayed about the same there were a decade ago, compared with Health Act, a punitive law that enables the
for schizophrenia. "All the oxygen is being 86% more consultants in emergency medi compulsory detention and treatment of
taken up by the milder, more palatable pro cine and 72% in gastroenterology. A simi the mentally ill in England and Wales. A
blems which can be described by broadly lar trend goes for mental-health nurses. bill to reform the act has been shelved.
high-functioning people," says Dr Cuts to local-government budgets have
Foulkes. That in turn has an impact on the withered treatment services for drugs and
allocation of resources. When you inflate alcohol as well as housing projects for
diagnoses, "you end up diverting resources those vulnerable to serious mental-health
away from smaller numbers of people who problems. In Wirral 1% of inpatients being
need them to larger numbers of people treated in hospital for mental-health pro
who don't," says Professor Wessely. blems were homeless in 2019, a figure
On paper the N H S operates under a which has now increased to 8% , notes Si
"stepped care" model, in which care is allo mon Banks, a local N H S director. Although
cated accordi ng to need . Family doctors, the N H S has speci alist programmes to sup
known as general practitioners (GPs), usu port the homeless in Wirral, they do not
ally act as the first port of call for mental manage to reach everyone.
health concerns, as they do for all non In 2022 the government announced a
emergency illnesses. Patients can be re ten-year plan to look, among other things,
ferred (or self-refer) onto talking therapies, at this wider context for mental-health dis
usually consisting of cognitive behaviour orders. This year the government scrapped
al therapy. GPS can also refer into second it. Instead it released a strategy to reduce
ary care, either in the community or, as a suicides (such as by controlling sales of pa
last resort, in hospital. racetamol) and performed stunts. In the
The extra demand for mental-health summer the farming minister drove a trac
services is being funnelled into a system tor around Parliament Square for rural
that has long needed more staff, more mental health. "We were asking for money
money and better spending decisions. In to plug up the system during the pandem
September some 6.7m people waited more ic," says Paul Spencer of Mind, a charity.
than two weeks to see their GP. In August "Instead we got more focus on the benefits
N H S mental-health services received al- of talking about your mental health." ■
A READ E Rs' LU NCH at the Specta tor, the world's oldest weekly
magazine, is not for the faint of heart or light of wallet. It starts
with an aperitif of Lanson Le Black Reserve (a reasonable £ 5 5 per
magazine at its word and a similar affliction hau n ts the Specta tor:
it ended up running a country by mistake.
Links between the Conservative Party and the Tory-su pporting
bottle) . Next comes a m agnum of Laurent Perrier Grand Siecle press are well-scrutinised. Tim Bale, a historian of the Conserva
Grande Cuvee No. 23 (a less reasonable £400) . Rou nd it off with a tive Party, came up with the idea of "party in the med ia": h is term
Graillot & Perez Encinas Bierzo (a mere £ 26) . Those with the means for the columnists and reporters who see the world through Tory
to drop £150 can enjoy a boozy meal in the Specta tor's boardroom, spectacles, and who view the party's wants and needs as insepara
surrou nded by the 19 5-year-old back catalogue of the magazine ble from those of the nation. It is true enough for the D a ily Ma il,
that counts a few chancellors, many cabinet ministers and a Con the Da ily Express and the Daily Telegraph, who are usually supine.
servative prime minister among its alumni . When it comes to the Specta tor and the Conservatives , Mr Bale's
People are wi lling t o pay a premium for a slice o f Tory life. A re formulation is reversed : the media is i n the party. Results vary
cent struggle over the ownership of the Specta tor and its stable when a journalistic mindset is applied to government. Good po
mates, the Da ily and Sunday Teleg raph , proved j ust that. Lloyds, a lemics make poor policy. Mr Johnson first floated the idea of an EU
bank, put the outlets i nto receivership after a long-ru nning row referendum in 2003 . Likewise, bold plans of Tory ministers, such
with the Barclay brothers, hotel magnates and Channel Island as repeated plans to unleash house-bu ilding, usually end up as lit
overlords who bought the titles in 2004, over a £1. 2bn debt. tle more than op-eds on gov.uk rather than law.
A consortium led by Jeff Zucker, a former CN N editor, and Eclecticism is positive i n a magazine, but not so i n a politician .
backed by Gulf royalty, paid off the whole Barclay debt, with a view The Spectator swings between l iberalism a n d Conservatism, by
to taking control via a debt-for-equ ity swap. Conservative M Ps , tu rns thoughtfu l and thuggish . Similar behaviour dogs the gov
u sually cheerleaders of foreign investment, were appalled that a ernment. In the past six months, Mr Sunak has been the techno
foreign power was putting up the cash. Now the Conservative gov crat, keen to patch things up with the EU ; the protector of White
ernment has put the deal on hold . Van Man, scourge of environmentalism and Brussels basher; and a
Their interest is u nderstandable. The past, present a n d future fiscal conservative who pushed through big tax cuts , based on
of the Conservative Party runs through the Spectator. More specifi make-bel ieve spending forecasts. Even the Spectator's reticence
cally, it runs through the ed itor's office. At one end sits the desk of about its relations with the Conservatives feels familiar. The mag
N igel Lawson, who went on to become Margaret Thatcher's most azi ne has an a nti-establishment streak, wh ile clearly part of it. The
i nfluential chancellor. In front of the window, looking onto St government, equally, behaves l ike an opposition in office, railing
James's Park, stands a chaise l o ngue on which Boris Joh n son once agai nst decisions it made itself.
e njoyed a post-lunch "erotic reverie".
On the wal l , a cartoon shows Dominic Cummings, Mr John We want the finest wines available to humanity
son's former chief adviser, loom ing over the ex-prime m i nister. While the personnel and the politics of the Spectator and the Con
Even he worked briefly at the magazine. U nfortunately, he left servative Party overlap, their fortunes do not. The party is heading
abruptly after he p ub lished a controversial cartoon of Prophet Mu for oblivion; the Spectator is in fi ne health . Circulation is at an all
hammad. Happily, Mr Cummings's wife, Mary Wakefield, i s sti l l time high , while the Conservatives-coddled by a n u ncritical me
there a s an ed itor. dia-are set for their worst performance since at least 1997, unless
The Spectocracy is not only a quirk of history, but a quirk of the something dramatic happens. Opposition is a happy state for a
present. Its former political editor, James Forsyth, now sits i n magaz i ne, if not a political party. Particularly with plenty of cham
Down i ng Street a s Rishi Su nak's political secretary, having left the pagne i n supply. ■
The latest PI SA res u lts effects for youngsters who, as a resu lt, fai l
t o graduate from high school or do not
Class divisions hone the skills they need to succeed at uni
versity. Degree-holders in rich countries
earn roughly 50% more than people who
got j obs straight out of school.
In the places record ing the steepest
drops, PISA finds 15-year-olds to be per
forming at levels that in 2018 were typical
Awful new grades come after years of educational stagnation in the rich world
of youngsters a fu ll year you nger. In maths,
► P I SA tests were taken b y pupils i n 81 army of tutors that might help speed up
. .,,,,.
• 500
Their pupils tend t o progress at slow rates
even when schools are open as normal, ·------
Reading
unlikely that schools, emerging from ca
tastrophe, would suddenly find ways to
says Andreas Schleicher of the 0 EC D. So make an average school day dramatically
getting kicked ou t of classrooms may have more productive. Providing more learning
come at a lower cost to their grades. The • 480 time, by contrast, is something that even
story on achievement gaps is similarly the least innovative establishment ought
double-edged. P ISA's find ings suggest that 470 to be capable of.
the pandemic has not, on the whole, � In the best of all worlds, policymakers
ripped much wider the void separating would be seizing this moment not only to
I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I
2000 05 10 15 20 22
poor pupils' test scores from those of rich Source: OECD *20 po ints is equiva lent to one yea r of schoo l i ng
patch up lost learning but to drive through
er peers. But that is only because, in most reforms that might alter the less-than-im
countries, wealthy children have seen pressive traj ectories many school systems
their progress stall j ust as much as disad one year's spend ing on schools. Much of were tracing even before the pandemic hit.
vantaged children have. that money has gone on tutoring: the avail The 0 E co's previous data du mp, in 2018,
Education ministries the world over able information suggests that children found that 15-year-olds in most rich cou n
will envy the handful of rich places that are making back time. Bu t cash for the tries were doing no better in maths, read
have a cheery story to tell amid the gloom. scheme is likely to d ry u p next year. ing or science than pu pils 20 years before
In Japan, Singapore, South Korea and Tai In America a whopping $19obn in feder them . Indeed, in a number of big coun
wan, test scores not only held steady over al relief money has been found for schools tries-not just Finland , but also France, the
the pandemic period, they actually ticked si nce the start of the pandemic, equal to Netherlands and New Zealand, among
up in at least one of the three subj ects in about a quarter of what the country spends others-school marks were already head
which pupils sat exams. Israel and Switzer on publ ic schooling in a normal year. But ing down . In these kinds of places it is dif
land are among other cou ntries that ap schools have been given enormous free ficult to disentangle exactly how far the
pear, at least as judged from these data, to dom to spend the money as they wish; only pandemic itself contributed to score de
have done reasonably wel l . a feeble 20% of it is requ ired to go on clines. There is a high risk that underlying
schemes designed to get children's learn problems will go unsolved if bad results
Cramming it in ing back on track. A big crunch will arrive are written off as a pandemic blip.
Some of these outliers protected learning in September next year, when all the extra
by keeping school closu res short. Across money will ru n out. Learning the lessons
the 0 ECD's dataset there is a modest associ Data released in July by N W EA, a test The challenge goes beyond finding more
ation between the length of time schools provider with access to over 6m children's cash. In the decade to 2018 spend ing per
stayed closed and children's subsequ ent scores , suggest that American pupils in pupil rose by around 15% i n rich countries
performance in tests . Teachers in Switzer many grades made no more progress than without producing d ramatic resu lts . The
land ran fully remote or hybrid timetables usual during the most recent academic 0 Ec o's data suggest that pushing up school
for only six weeks (the average among year. Indeed, rather than catching u p, they fu nding brings reliable improvements
countries in Europe was around 29) . Clo seem to have progressed at a slightly slow only u ntil it reaches a thres hold of about
-
sures in Japan were also comparatively zip er rate than was standard befo re the pan $75 , 000 per pu pil, spread over each child's
py: in 2020 schools in that country short demic. A tight labour market has made it first ten years in school. Beyond that point,
ened their su mmer breaks in order to claw difficult for American schools to hire the the gains quickly peter out. America is a
back some of the class hou rs that children striking example. It spends more than
had lost u p to then. Singapore, l ikewise, $140, 000 per pu pil. Yet across the board its
Austra l ia t
after classrooms first reopened. Yet they more money into the same old strategies.
Israel
also got lots of help. In the fi rst year of the "Build ing forward d ifferently" would be
U n ited States t
pandemic the government h ired 30, 000 smarter. I nternational evidence, for exam
Britain t
add itional teaching staff; some were pen ple, reveals that improving teachers' train
sioners called back into service. ing and motivation is a far surer way of im
What is to be done to revital ise school France proving marks than splashing cash on
i ng elsewhere? The terrible results ought to Fi n land smaller classes-the lever politicians find
Germany
renew enthusiasm for programmes aimed easier to pul l . And too many school sys
Pola nd
at helping pupils catch up on learning lost tems do a poor job of making sure adequate
Norway
during the pandemic. In Britain the gov resou rces flow to the schools and pupils
ernment has coughed up about £ 3 . 5bn that have the most need . A big opportunity
($4.4b n) to support such schemes since Sou rce: OECD
*20 po ints is eq u iva lent to one yea r
of school ing t 1 n complete data
may be wasted if mediocre school systems
2020 , a sum roughly equivalent to 6% of are recreated much as they were before. ■
Unsustainable developments
permit delays and , increasingly, the pro
tectionist instincts of Western govern
ments . The "green premium" in stocks has
tu rned into a "green d iscount". The s & P
global clean-energy index , which tracks
the performance of the industry, has de
D U BAI
clined by 32% over the past 12 months, at a
time when the world's stockmarkets have
The renewable-energy business faces a make-or-break moment
risen by 11% (see chart 2) . A ES has lost more
► gram in 2020 to as much as $35 in 2022, the Department of Commerce found that
thanks to pandemic-era supply-chain pro C lea ned out some South- East Asian suppliers were
blems in China. The price of solar modules Stoc kmarket i n d ices, Decem ber 1 st 2022 = 1 0 0 merely repackaging products from China,
jumped in response. 1 20 and would thus also be slapped with the
Costs related to wind turbines have same anti-dumping d uties from the mid
soared , too. Russia's invasion of Ukraine 1 10 dle of next year. The Eiden ad ministration
pushed up the price of steel , an important is using the I RA's domestic-content re
1 00
i nput of which both countries are big pro quirements to lure p roduction home. First
ducers. What is more, to create longer and 90 Solar, the biggest American maker of mod
more powerful blades, their makers have ules, is expanding its domestic production
pushed into new technological territory, 80 capacity from 6GW this year to 14Gw by
including experimenting with materials S&P global clean energy 2026. Yet that is a tiny fraction of what
70
l ike carbon-fibre composites rather than America will need to meet its decarbonisa
fibreglass. To capture stronger winds at 60 tion goals . It wil l also do l ittle to lower pric
bigger heights , the average tower is now 2022 2023 es in the industry as a whole.
almost 100 metres tal l . In 2018 GE unveiled Sou rce: Bloom berg
Europe is sending mixed signals . The
a 260-metre offshore wind turbine, n ot EU has dropped earlier anti-dumping
much shorter than the Eiffel Tower. Su ppli duties on Chinese solar panels. But on
ers of the 8, 000-odd parts of a wind turbine dies wrapped up in the Inflation Reduction November 22nd the European Parliament
have struggled to keep up. Ships and lorries Act (I RA) , President Joe Biden's mammoth passed the Net Zero Ind us try Act, which
are having trouble transporting parts the climate law. will introduce minimum domestic-con
size of football pitches. Developers that locked in electricity tent requ irements for public renewable
All this has led to delays and manu fac prices with customers before locking in energy contracts. The European Commis
tu ring failures for wind tu rbines. In Octo costs have fou nd themselves stuck with sion is also mulling a probe into China's
ber a turbine made by Vestas, a Danish unprofitable proj ects. In America they subsidies for its turbine manu factu rers,
firm, caught fi re in Iowa. Around the same have either cancelled or sought to renego which sell their gear for 70% less at home
time the blades on a G E turbine in Germany tiate contracts for half the offshore-wind than Western rivals charge elsewhere i n
snapped and fe ll into a field. Warranty pro capacity being built in the country, accord the world (see chart 4) . Chinese firms are
visions in sales contracts make manufac ing to BloombergN EF. already gain ing traction outside their
tu rers bear the cost of such incidents . In In October Orsted, a Danish company home market. They are now bidding more
the past 12 months such warranties cost that is the world 's largest offshore-wind regularly on p roj ects around the worl d ,
Vestas €1bn ($1.1bn) . Quality problems at developer, took a $4bn writedown when it notes Miguel S tilwell d'A ndrade, chief
Siemens Gamesa, including creases in its cancelled two large proj ects off the coast of executive of E D P.
-
blades, drove annual operating losses for New Jersey. In Britain, a governm ent auc Trade restrictions will not just keep out
its parent company, Siemens Energy, to tion in September to provide offshore wind cheap Chinese solar panels and wind tur
€4 .6bn. On November 14th the parent was power to the grid at a maximum guaran bines . They will also affect the availability ►►
granted a loan guarantee by the German teed price of £44 ($ 56) per megawatt-hou r
government to help it avert a crisis . (Mwh) received no bids .
Renewables bosses also gru mble about B lown to bits
Can green stay out of the red? bureaucratic delays. In America it takes on
To stem the bleeding, equipment-makers average four years to get approval for a so Wind -tu rbine manufacturers, net profit
have been raising their own prices. West lar farm and six for an onshore wind one. margi n, trailing 12 months, %
ern ones now charge a fifth more than they An E U ru le that approval times for renew 10
did at the end of 2020, according to s & P able projects in the bloc should not exceed Vestas
Global, a data provider. These price rises two years is honoured mostly in the 5
have combined with higher interest rates breac h . Because solar and wind farms typi 0
to push up the LCOE for American offshore cally produce less energy than convention
-
wind projects by 50% over the past two al power plants and , with easy-to-connect -5
years , calculates Bloomberg N E F , a re sites already taken , are being built in
-1 0
search fi rm-even after including subsi- increas ingly remote places, they often
need new transmission lines . These, too, Siemens Energy _1 5
need to be approved. In America the inter 201 9 20 21 22 23
D ownwind connection queue for renewable energy is
G lobal l evel i sed cost of electricity* from newly 2, oooGW long and growing.
Onsh ore wi n d tu rbi nes, average
co m missio ned renewables, $ per MWh All this is made worse by rising green sel l i ng p rice, $ pe r watt
500 protectionism. America has, in effect, 1 .2
locked out Chinese solar manufacturers Eu ropean*
400 with hefty anti-dumping duties and the 1 _0
Solar photovolta ic Uyghur Forced Labour Prevention Act of 0.8
300
2021, which bars American developers 0.6
from importi ng modules containing poly
silicon from the Xinj iang region, source of 0.4
half of the global supply. As a result of such 0.2
policies, solar modules are more than 0
twice as expensive in the United States as
201 0 12 14 16 18 20 22 201 9 20 21 22 23
elsewhere, according to Wood Mackenzie,
*Vestas, Nordex a nd Siemens Energy
Sou rce: I EA
* Lifeti me cost per megawatt-hour generated,
i ncluding ca pita l a nd o perati ng expend itures
a consultancy. Sou rces: Bloom berg; S&P G l obal Com mod ity I n sights
Those costs may rise further. I n August
50
40 D U BAI
10
M for perhaps
ETHANE I S RESPO NSI B L E
45% of current global warming. In de
bates over climate change the short-lived
that a methane deal could be seen as giving
the oil-and-gas industry, wh ich they want
to kil l off, a "get out of j ail free" card. One
0 but h ighly potent greenhouse gas is never green grou p complains that the deal is
201 8 19 20 21 22 23 theless typically upstaged by carbon d iox voluntary and worries that the promised
Sou rce: LevelTen Energy
ide, which hangs arou nd the atmosphere cuts will not be honou red .
for hund reds of years. Not at this year's an That is a reasonable concern, given the
nual U N climate su mmit, hosted by the fossil-fuel i ndustry's d ismal record of
► of parts . Siemens Gamesa plans to out United Arab Emirates ( UA E) in Dubai . climate denial and regulatory obstruction .
source more of its sup ply chain to trim "Methane is taking its rightful place as the Still, the deal represents a breakthrough of
costs. Western turbine manufacturers al single biggest and fastest way to slow sorts. The companies involved account for
ready purchase nacelles, towers and other warming," declares Durwood Zael ke, a re some 40% of global oil production , and
components from China, which domi nowned methane-warrior at the Institute include not just Western su permajors like
nates their p roduction . For offshore-wind for Governance and Sustainable Develop ExxonMobil and Shell but also 29 national
proj ects, America will need to import the ment, a think-tank. oil companies, among them Saudi Aramco,
majority of components to meet its 2030 On December 2nd some 50 big hydro the mightiest of them all, and AD Noe of the
targets, accord ing to the Department of En carbon fi rms pledged in Dubai to all but UA E . The state giants, which are responsi
ergy. Supply shortages are likely as the elim inate the methane emissions associ ble for the majority of the indu stry's meth
world races to deploy more renewable ated with the exploration and prod uction ane emissions, had long resisted j oining
power. Tariffs and local content regu la of fossil fuels by 2030. They also pledged to any such agreement, or even acknowledg
tions could make the problem worse. end routine flaring of methane, which is ing that the leaks existed . Their participa
There a re few signs of the protectionist the principal component of natu ral gas . tion is therefore a big win .
mood lifting. But the industry is at least Although farming releases more methane The adopted target, t o cut methane
starting to get a grip on some more i mme (via belching ruminants and uptu rned emissions by an order of magnitude, to a
diate challenges. Polysilicon prices have land) , the energy sector is more concen mere 0 . 2% or so of oil and gas production
fallen and production capacity is increas trated and thus easier to corral. Drillers by the end of the decade, is both ambitious
ing up and down the solar su pply chai n . also have a bigger incentive than farmers and p recise. Progress will be independent
Western turbine manufacturers may be to prevent leaks. After all, the gas that ly verifi ed by third parties, i ncluding the
tu rning a corner, too, helped by a fall in doesn't leak can be sold for a p rofit. UN Environment Programme. Helpfully,
commod ity prices and greater technologi Critics were quick to denounce the deal the third-party verifiers have a growi ng
cal and financial discipline. The industry is as greenwashing. Some argued that it toolkit at their d isposal, from methane
realising that "bigger is not always better" wou ld not lead to a phase-au t of fossil fu sniffing satellites to ground-based sen
for turbines , says Henrik Andersen , chief els, something that campaigners want to sors. Any methane-miscreants should
executive of Vestas. On November 8th the see agreed in Dubai. These sceptics suggest have nowhere to hide. ■
Danish firm reported that it returned to
profitability in the third quarter.
Developers, for their part, are managing
to raise prices without hu rting demand . In
the past two years p rices for solar and wi nd
power received by developers in America
under power-purchase agreements have
i ncreased by nearly 60% , accord ing to fig
ures from LevelTe n Energy, an energy mar
ketplace (see chart 5) . Andres Gluski, chief
executive of A E S, says that his company is
on track to put more than twice as much re
newable-energy capacity i nto service this
year as in 2022. Returns are hold ing steady,
he adds. I n next year's offshore wind auc
tio n Britain will lift the maximum pri ce
from £44 per MWh to £73. Germany, too,
has been raising ceiling prices for solar a nd
wind auctions.
"No one enj oys seei ng prices go up, but
they are accepti ng it," says M ark Dooley of
Macquarie. I f approval rules are not re
laxed and protectionism goes u nchecked,
a lot more acceptance wil l be necessary. ■ Is it ru m i na nts' tu rn next?
-
H ELSI N K I
groups of entrepreneurs that once worked
for the same firm are known. The biggest
Forget the slowdown in tech: European entrepreneurs are doing just fine
has formed around Skype, which pioneer
N EVE R H AS
a crisis been so exciting.
Startup valuations are plunging, tech
layoffs abound and fresh venture capital
S u rviva l of the techiest
Europe, ventu re-capital investment in startu ps
ed phone calls over the internet. Skype
gave rise to more than goo startups, which
today together employ over 65, 000 people.
(vc) is hard to come by. But at Slush, a big Equally important, successful founders
annual tech shindig which wrapped up in $bn now regularly invest their wealth in new
Helsinki on December 1st, founders and 1 00 businesses and even form their own vc
their financiers were partying almost like firms. One of the most notable such vc out
it was 1999, the height of the dotcom fits is Plural Platform, the partners of
bubble. More than 30, 000 people, a record which include founders of Skype, Wise, an
number that included 5,000 entrepreneurs online payment service, and Songkick, a
and 3, 000 investors, spent two days in a service to discover concerts.
cavernous trade-show, witnessing presen As it continues to mature, Europe's tech
tations, panels and lots of laser beams. industry is also developing its own charac
Like startups everywhere, those in 201 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 20 21 22 23* teristics. European founders are less cock
Europe have been hit by rising interest a-hoop than their American counterparts
rates, which make their promise of rich fu By sector, % at all things ChatGPT -like: from January to
ture profits looks less alluring today. This ■ Carbon and energy Software Health September Europe saw 35 financing
year they are forecast to attract just $45bn Enabling technologies ■ Finance and insu rance rounds backing developers of generative
in investments, according to "State of 1 00 artificial intelligence, compared with 106
European Tech", an annual report released 80
across the pond. By contrast, climate-relat
at Slush by Atomico, a vc firm based in ed startups accounted for 27% of all capital
London. That is down by 38% compared invested in European tech in 2023, a much
with last year and by 55% from a scorching bigger share than in America. Climate-tech
2021. The median valuation of more ma firms have now overtaken fintech, until re
ture "growth stage" startups now hovers cently Europe's most represented techno
below the five-year average. Whereas in logy niche.
2021 Europe created 107 "unicorns" (unlist 201 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 20 2 1 22 23t European tech is unlikely to become as
ed firms worth $1bn or more) and last year Sou rce: Atomico
*Year to Sep 30th, annua l ised
tyea r to Sep 30th
big as America's just yet. Silicon Valley and
it produced another 48, so far in 2023 it has its satellites in Austin, New York and else
added just seven. Many more have been where are still way ahead. America's herd
"dehorned", according to Atomico: 50 this Europe's property sector (excluding con of unicorns (about 700 on last count) is
year, on top of 58 in 2022. struction). The total value of Europe's priv twice the size of Europe's (356). Capital is
Take a longer-term view, though, and ate and publicly listed tech companies is still much easier to come by in America,
Europe's startup scene as a whole is hold again nearing the peak of $3trn reached in points out Tom Wehmeier of Atomico, one
ing up surprisingly well. In some ways, it is 2021. Last year it was $2. 8trn. of the authors of the report. New firms in
dealing with the crisis better than Ameri European tech's relative resilience can America are 40% more likely than those in
ca's more established one. Investments in be explained by its increasing maturity. Europe to have secured an injection of vc
European startups may be down over the Take the number of companies founded by within five years of founding. And when it
-
past two years, but they are still up by 18% ex-employees of successful startups. More is time to go public, European startups still
compared with 2020 (see chart 1), except than 9 , 000 people wh o worked for those of feel the pull of New York, where a listing is
for Britain where they dropped by more likely to raise far more money.
than 2 %. I n America they declined by 1% The biggest obstacle to European start
over that period. And whereas valuations Fou n d i ng va ria bles ups' ambitions is home-grown, however.
are shrinking overall, "down rounds", Europe, tech nology-compa ny fou n ders The E U has repeatedly tried to create a
where startups accept a lower valuation who formerly wo rked for u nicorns*, '000 single digital market as frictionless as the
when raising fresh capital, are less wide By decade of u ni corns' fou nding American one, but differences in taxes and
spread than one might expect. They com 10 regulations still abound. Europe has
prised only 21% of all rounds this year. shown what is possible, says Zeynep Ya
8
On other measures, too, European tech vuz, who invests on the continent for Gen
continues to thrive. Europe now creates 6 eral Catalyst, an American vc firm. The ex
more startups than America: around 4
plosion of enterprise in fintech in recent
14, 000 between January and September, years was a direct result of bloc-wide regu
201 0s 1990s
compared with 13, 000 across the Atlantic. 2 lations drafted in Brussels. If E U leaders
The old continent, including Britain, has 0 really want to strengthen European tech,
more than 41, 000 young tech firms and 1 5
I I I I
10
I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I
15 20 25 31
which they all profess to do, they should
about 3, 900 more mature ones. Together Years since u nicorn fou nded
spend less time trying to regulate various
they employ 2. 3m or so people, about twice Sou rce: Atomico *Compa nies val ued over $1bn at Sep 30th 2023
digital markets and instead create a single
as many as in early 2019 and more than in truly European one. ■
Social media Musk bought Twitter, its 100 top clients ac Business in China
counted for 70% of American ad sales.
Mad man v Half of them have since left X, Sensor A corporate
mad men whodunnit
Tower says. On December 1st Walmart said
it had gone, owing to its ads' poor results
on X. The impact has been severe. In Sep
tember Mr Musk said that X's American ad SHANG HAI
business was down by 60%. Advertisers in
Why x i s especially vulnerable The strange case of the
other regions may be less bothered by the
to an ad boycott vanishing chairmen
culture wars that Mr Musk is fighting. But X
Fviralingslogans.
O R S OM EO N E who despises the advertis
industry, Elon Musk has a way with
At a New York Times event on
is unusually reliant on America. Whereas
Meta, Facebook's parent company, makes
most of its money abroad, 56% of Twitter's
"
W
E H AV E LO ST contact with our
chairman," is an awkward disclo
sure from the board of a listed company to
November 29th the world's richest man revenue came from America before Mr its investors. It can lead to a collapse in the
was asked how he felt about firms pulling Musk bought it. Even before G FY , Insider share price. In China the resulting confu
ads from X, the social network he bought Intelligence, another research firm, ex sion can persist for months, casting a
last year when it was known as Twitter. "If pected X's worldwide ad sales to fall by shadow over the company's future. Such
somebody's going to try to blackmail me," more than half this year (see chart) . announcements have become so common
he replied, "go fuck yourself." The " G FY" ap Mr Musk's fans insist being rude to air this year that a state-owned newspaper,
proach, as he dubbed it, may come natural kissing admen and "woke" brands delights Secu rities Times, has offered advice to
ly to billionaires. But it is bold for a compa X's everyman users. X still has nearly five directors dealing with a disappearance.
ny that last year made 90% or so of its rev times as many as Threads, a newish rival "Don't be coy when it comes to disclosing
enue from ads. Those that have pulled ads from Meta. Yet Sensor Tower reports that these matters," the paper said in Novem
from X include Apple and Disney, whose the X app is being downloaded less often ber. It reminded firms that they have a re
presence Mr Musk previously cited as evi than a year ago, and estimates that it has sponsibility to keep investors informed of
dence that X was a safe space for brands. lost 15 % of monthly users. any major incidents affecting their opera
Advertisers are worried about unsavou Some observers put this down to a tions. This includes an inexplicably un
ry content on the platform. Since Mr Musk purge of bots and fake users. Still, X must contactable chairman or chief executive.
fired 80% of X's staff, including many mod monetise the users it has in new ways to Two separate listed Chinese compa
erators, more bile seems to be leaking make up for the declining ad dollars. One nies- a children's-fitness firm and an agri
through the filters. Last month Media Mat idea is X Premium, which offers extra fea cultural one-warned investors on No
ters for America, a watchdog, reported that tures and fewer ads for between $3 and $16 vember 29th that their chairmen had van
ads for brands such as I B M had appeared a month. So far there seem to be few takers: ished without a trace. The fitness compa
alongside posts praising Adolf Hitler (X Sensor Tower estimates that X has sold ny, My Gym Education, said that it "tried
disputes this and is suing Media Matters) . $6om-worth of subscriptions in the past communicating via phone and WeChat
Social networks are freer than main year, equivalent to 1% of pre-Musk annual messaging but could not reach Wang
stream media to tell advertisers to get lost. ad sales. Mr Musk has talked of turning X Hongying", its chairwoman. ''.After com
Whereas a typical TV network in America into an "everything app", handling pay municating with her family, the company
gets most of its ad revenue from fewer than ments, calls and more. But even optimists has been unable to determine the reason
100 big clients, social networks can have concede this would take years. for the loss of contact with her."
millions of small ones. A year ago the larg Until then, the aim is to replace the de These latest incidents followed two
est, Facebook, was getting 45% of its do parting big advertisers with an army of other freak disappearances at a live
mestic sales from its 100 biggest advertis little ones. X is said to be working on its ad streaming company and a drugmaker ear
ers, reckons Sensor Tower, a research firm; technology for smaller firms, eyeing a lier that month. All told, at least 11 listed
a boycott against it in 2020 by more than Facebook-like long tail of clients. There is Chinese companies have been forced to
600 firms, including giants like Unilever no time to lose. Further drops in ad sales put out disclosures this year, alerting in
and Starbucks, had little effect on sales. But could necessitate a b ail-out from inves vestors to the disappearance of executives
X lacks Facebook's sophisticated ad-target tors, or from Mr Musk himself. X's employ or board members. A review of corporate
-
ing apparatus, and relies on campaigns by ees have their work cut out to attract adver disclosures and Chinese media reports in
big brands. In October 2022, when Mr tisers faster than their boss repels them. ■ dicates that this odd phenomenon has be
come more common in 2023.
When a firm reports a missing boss, it is
The X-odus generally assumed they have been de
Twitter/X tained by the police. A look at this year's
cases suggests as much. In rare instances,
Advertising revenues Month ly active u sers the police release statements. In Novem
$ bn % change on a yea r earlier ber, about two weeks after the chief execu
5 20 tive of DouYu, the live-streamer, disap
Oct 2022 peared, cops in the south-western city of
Elon M usk 10 Chengdu confirmed he had been detained.
buys Twitter He is accused of operating a casino. More
often, the authorities keep mum. China
-10
has never publicly acknowledged the de
tention of Xiao Jianhua, a businessman
-20 who was abducted by Chinese agents in
201 9 20 21 22 23* 2021 22 23 Hong Kong in 2017 and imprisoned in
Sou rces: I nsider Intell igence; Senso r Tower * Forecast tTo Decem ber 5th
2022- facts confirmed by authorities in
Canada, where Mr Xiao is also a citizen. ►►
► It is more common for the companies the company confirmed h is detention. Executives d isappear most often from
themselves to inform their investors about However they find out, i nvestors grow firms with high l evels of debt. This year the
the detentions. I n February China Renais understandably nervous. The share prices most common profile was chai rman at a
sance said that its chai rman, Bao Fan, was of the afflicted firms typically tumble on property developer. That industry has seen
"co-operating in an investigation bei ng the news. The p rice of China Renaissance's widespread defaults in the past two years.
carried out by certain authorities in the Hong Kong-listed shares fell by about 30% The two most recent cases in November are
People's Republ ic of China". The disclosure in February as rumours of Mr Bao's disap both l inked to Zhongzhi, a weal th manager
came ten days after the boutique invest pearance began to spread . It has remained that recently said it has $36bn in u npayable
ment bank reported the mysterious ab around that l evel since. When the chair debts. Zhongzhi holds large stakes in both
sence. (Mr Bao is still missing and authori man of a successful hedge fund, Green the fitness firm and the agricultural one,
ties have never confirmed his where woods Asset Management, was detained but also dozens of other big l isted compa
abouts .) A property developer, China For this year, wealthy Chinese grew concerned nies. As China's economy slows , more
tu ne Land Development, noted that its about a broader crackd own on the asset businesses are l ikely to go bust-and their
co-chairman had "exited the board " after managers that handle their fortu nes . bosses to go m issing. ■
What's wrong with Mondays?
Wban d , released
Boom town Rats, an Irish
H E N TH E
"I Don't Like Mon
Mondayitis ap pears to be contagious,
infecting other days of the week. Some
(though this may lead to an epidemic of
Tuesdayitis instead) . Less ambitiously,
days" in 1979 , the song became an instant Americans now complain of "Sunday and more realistically, a social-media
hit. The inspiration behind it was the scaries", when pre-Monday d read sets in campaign for "bare-minimum Mondays"
Cleveland Elementary School shooting in as the weekend draws to a close. Both argues for a gentle start to the week.
San Diego that year. The 16-year-old conditions can be aggravated by a week All this reflects a deep hu man instinct
perpetrator listed "not liking Mondays " end hangover, a looming dead line or towards self-i ndulgence and procrasti
as her main reason for firing 36 shots, painful memories (d ouble science in nation; there is a reason why "Thank God
killing two adults and inj uring eight secondary school first thing in the morn it's Monday" does not feature on many
child ren and a police officer. This is not, ing?) . They are likely to be particularly bumper stickers or T-shirts. Still , on that
though, why the song resonated with acute among the nearly half of American first day of the week employees do not
millions of people arou nd the world ; workers who, according to a poll from have to be mired in apathy, weariness
most of them are in all likelihood un 2022 conducted by U KG , an R R-software and desire that things were otherwise. As
aware of its tragic origi ns. What many do company, hate their jobs. Robert Frost cou nselled in his poem , ''A
recognise all too well is the difficulty of Still, the sudden shift from non-work Servant to Servants", "the best way out is
summoning the energy to get out of bed to work affects everyone, not just those always through."
on Monday mornings in order to face the who d espise what they do for a living. The The preceding 60 hours or so were
week ahead . covid-19 pandemic has led many people to probably spent with people who have
Many bosses argue that starting off re-evaluate their work-life balance. A nothing to do with your j ob. You may
the week in person in the office creates barrister in London who spends weekends have prepared-or merely enjoyed-a
good energy. Plenty of employees beg to working on cases likes to ease into the more elaborate meal than an al desko
differ. A paper publ ished in 2021 by the formal workweek with an elegant break sandwich . You may have gone for a wal k
Jou rnal ofApplied Psychology, found that fast at The Delaunay and lu nch i n Inner in the park o r simply lounged in bed.
people tend to be more ill-mannered on Temple Hal l . A broader movement is Either way, you almost certainly cleared
Mondays, and grow more courteous as promoting the idea of a four-day work your head. Unless you capped the week
the week unfolds. week, one permutation of which would end off by going on a bender, this means
A paper from 2015 by Yun Tae Hwang make Monday part of the weekend that the following morning could be you r
and Amy Kang published in the Medical most productive time of the week.
Journal ofA ustralia goes so far as to diag For one banker, Monday is the day to
nose a new condition, Mondayitis . The cross items off their to-do l ist. Your
authors define it as "a systemic illness columnist, a guest Bartleby, feels crisp
with a non-specific constellation of and i nvigorated on Monday mornings
symptoms including fatigue, lethargy or (which is when the editorial meetings
asthenia, dysthymia, irritability, l ight take place at The Economist, planning and
headedness, photophobia, d ry mouth , discussing the coming week's issue) . The
myalgia and headache i n the absence of first shower, coffee and commute after
another focal or systemic illness". the weekend do not have to feel like a
These symptoms typically appear on hike with a rucksack ful l of stones. They
the first working day after a period off can instead be imbued with a renewed
work, which could be a weekend or a sense of purpose and, as such, act as a
longer holiday. They can lead sufferers to tonic. It is on Friday afternoons when
call in sick, decide to work from home or, Bartleby feels depleted and cannot wait
if they do show u p in the office, come to go home-until Monday morni ng,
across as detached and u navailable. So when revived and spirited, she is ready to
much for good energy. do it all over again.
The year in
review
Friday December 1 5th
4pm G MT / 1 1 a m EST / 8a m PST
Edward Ca rr
Deputy editor
Rachana Shanbhogue
Business affa irs ed itor
► their l evels in 2019 . Yet in recent months correlated with house prices. When homes
- -
What will take its place? O fficials have be Du ring erratic pandemic lockdowns, to a " new normal", only to instead lapse
gu n to talk about the " new three", a trio of consumer confidence collapsed and into a "new mediocre". China could find it
industries including electric cars, l ithiu m- household saving jumped (see chart 2) . sel f making the same mistake. ■
Many commentators believe that the expe
rience has left lasting scars. Consu mers
China, contri bution to G DP growth* Chi na, % change on a year earl ier
N ew three v old two still say they are gloomy in surveys. Yet G rowi ng i n the wrong d i rection
-2
no longer feel obl iged to save for ever-more 0
expensive flats , then they might spend
FORECAST more on consumer items. Hui Shan o f
-3 -3
2021 22 23 24 25 26 27 Goldman Sachs argues that retail sales, ex 2004 10 15 20 23*
Sou rce: Goldman Sachs *Low-growth scenario
clud ing cars and " moving-in items", such Sou rces: Haver Ana lytics; Morgan Stan ley *Forecast
as furnitu re, are, if anything, negatively
to ¥8. 5trn i n the current o ne, the l argest Envi ron men ta I policies
nominal increase since 1983 . This i s just
the start, since payments go up only when Making friends
bonds are refi na nced . In 2024 ¥119trn in
bonds wil l mature. Another ¥158trn wil l
then mature over 2025 and 2026.
The scale of the threat to Japan's p ublic
finances depends on economic growth . D U B AI
Goldman Sachs, a bank, calculates that,
How to sell free trade to green types
with nominal growth of 2%, Japan's persis
tent budget deficit will be sustainable if av
erage interest rates on its debts stay at 1.1%
or below. Since average i nterest rates were
Enotfree-traders.
NVI RO N M E NTALI STS DO N OT get on with
Suspicion is the norm, if
the outright hostil ity on d isplay at the
nearly o . 8% in the year to March , that " Battle of Seattle" in 1999, which took place
leaves a modest buffer. A little add itional between riot police and activists outside a
growth would go a long way. With nominal meeting of the World Trade Organ isation
growth of 3%, Goldman's analysts think (wTo) . When Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, boss of
that i nterest rates could rise as high as 2.1% the WTO, went to the cop climate summit
without threatening the publ ic fi nances . in Glasgow two years ago she was the fi rst
Even if the public fi nances are not im head of the trade club to attend the portion
Rising bond yields perilled, the bill from greater i nterest pay reserved for ministers and senior officials.
ments will mou nt, putting policymakers She is once again at this year's summit,
Tax and pretend under pressure. After a decade of bond
buying, the B oJ owns almost half the coun
which began i n Dubai on November 30th ,
to explain how trade can save the planet.
try's government debt. To finance the bond Past animosity may help explain why
pu rchases, it created a huge volume of cen green policies in many cou ntries are at
tral-bank reserves-a sort of deposit owed odds with the principles of free trade. " Buy
TO K YO
to the com mercial ban ks that sold the American" provisions i n the Inflation Re
Will a fiscal mess thwart Japan's bonds to the B OJ in the fi rst place. These re du ction Act (I RA) , Joe Biden's flagship
nascent economic growth? serves have floating interest rates . green pol icy, lock out European firms. Ta
W pan's
H E N MOO DY'S , a research firm, cut Ja
top-grade cred it rating and
When short-term rates were zero, this
was hardly a problem. From April to Sep
riffs on European steelmakers, introduced
by Donald Trum p on national-secu rity
warned of a "sign ificant deterioration in tember, the B OJ earned ¥807bn in interest grounds, have been suspended to give ne
the government's fiscal position", Ninten on its hold ings of government bonds , and gotiators time to reach a deal on "sustain
do's first colou r Game Boy was taking the paid out ¥92bn on its deposits. But i f the able steel", but talks have stalled . America
world by storm and Japan's net govern B OJ were to pay even half a percentage has ratcheted up tariffs on Chinese solar
ment debt ran to 54 % of G D P. Twenty-five point in total interest on its reserves, out panels and battery-powered cars, and the
years later that figure stands at 159%. The goings wou ld run to ¥2.7trn , an amou nt EU has announced a cou nter-subsidy i n
growth has been cushioned by a fall in gov equivalent to 40% of the defence budget. vestigation into China's carmakers .
ernment bond yields, which means that Ja How should politicians respond? If the T h e effect of these policies is t o give a
pan paid less interest to its cred itors last government slashes spending when mon boost to polluters . The WTO reckons that
year than it did three decades ago. But now etary policy is tightening, it could rui n an renewable-energy equ ipment faces an av
Moody's warning may fi nally come true. other opportunity for economic recovery. erage tariff of 3 .2%, fou r times that on oil.
That is because refinancing is becom For now, ministers are more concerned Electric vehicles experience tariffs that are
i ng more expensive. Ten-year government with stimulating growth-as shown by Mr 1. 6 to 3 . 9 percentage points higher than
bond yields have risen from, in effect, zero Kishida's tax cuts . I n time, though, rising those on combustion engines. Non-tariff
three years ago to arou nd 0 .7% now. A rise interest payments may force their hand . barriers such as domestic-content requ ire
-
in infl ation has forced the Bank of Japan Without the cushion of low interest rates, ments , which mean a given proportion of
(BoJ) to all but abandon its policy of cap long-discussed risks to Japan's fi nances the components of, say, a car must be made
p ing long-term bond yields. The next step will become u ncomfortably real. ■ domestically, raise costs even further and
may be to raise short-term interest rates slow the spread of clean technology.
for the first time since 2007. Central banks Free-traders are belatedly fighting back.
elsewhere are considering cutting rates; Ja Q u ite a burden This year's co p featured the first ever "trade
pan is moving in the opposite direction . N et govern m ent debt as % o f G DP day". The WTO marked the occasion with a
Pol iticians seem n ot t o have realised. 1 75 ten-point plan laying out how free trade
Kishida Fumio, Japan's p rime minister, Japa n could speed the green tra nsition . Poi nts
plans to splurge. Defence spending is set to 1 50 range from the u ncontroversial (speeding
double as a share of G D P by 2027. As the 1 25 up border checks so that container ships
U nited
pop ulati o n ages, welfare payments wil l States spend less time idli ng) to the tricky (co-or
1 00
grow. O n November 29th parliament voted dinating carbon p ricing to stop u nilateral
i n favour of temporary tax cuts worth 1% of 75 border taxes cau si ng trade disputes) .
Japan's G D P . The decision d rew a rebuke 50 They will need more than the promise
from Shirakawa Masaaki , a former B OJ go of efficiency to win over green types, how
vernor, who questioned the logic of cutting 25 ever. Take the E U 's carbon border adjust
taxes when the country faces i nflation. *t 0 ment mechanism (cBAM) , which aims to
Japan's finance ministry predicts that charge the same carbon price on certain i n
I I I I j I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I
2001 05 10 15 20 23
i nterest payments to bondholders will rise Sou rce: I M F *Esti mate fo r Japan tForecast
dustrial commodities whether they are
from ¥7. 3trn ($ 54bn) in the last fiscal year produced i nside or outside the bloc. It is ►►
► designed to be non-discriminatory: busi Duri ng cop , Ursula v o n der Leyen, the world of cross-border carbon taxes and
nesses in the EU pay the same p rice wher European Com mission's president, Krista green industrial policies wil l requ ire a ref
ever they sou rce their inputs from . There l i na Georgieva, managing director of the eree to set commonly agreed standards
fore it satisfies free-traders who think do I M F , and Ms Okonjo-Iweala together float a nd measurements of emissions. The WTO
mestic and foreign producers should be ed u sing revenues from carbon p ricing to publi shed a report that attempted to estab
treated the same. Nevertheless, despite its smooth things out. The E U pledged $145m, l ish how to account for the embodied car
green credentials, many activists obj ect to o n top of $10om from Germany, towards bon in steel imports on December 1st, the
it on the grounds that the rich world compensating poor countries for climate second day of co P. It could also start to dis
should fund the green transition. The change, as well as support for the U N 's tinguish between subsidies that d istort
C BAM will hit many poor countries hard, green climate fund, which helps countries trade but might be good for the planet,
since their production is more polluting. decarbonise and adapt to a hotter world. such as America's I RA, and those which are
One way to get the critics on board The WTO will need to make changes as bad on both cou nts , suggests Mr Esty. That
might be for rich cou ntries to provide more well , argues Daniel Esty, a professor at Yale would represent a compromise between
climate finance to the d eveloping worl d . University seconded to the organisation. A free-traders and environmentalists. ■
A cheap shot
Wbank?
H O WOU LD want to own shares in a
Rising interest rates shou ld
eaten into this. Customers fled regional
banks following collapses earlier in the
has admitted, despite the pain it will
nevertheless cause your company.
have been a blessing, lifting the income year and have moved away from all banks The fight over the proposed changes
they can earn on assets. But a few banks in favour of money-market funds, which has become ugly. Although bankers
that had lent and invested freely at rock offer higher low-risk retu rns. Even in the typ ically lobby behind closed doors , the
bottom rates faced ru ns, wh ich pus hed best-case scenario for America's banks-a new requirements have pushed them
up funding costs for the rest. More may "soft land ing" or "no landing" at all, in into open warfare. They have pointed out
yet fail. And new regu lations , om inously wh ich there is no recession , few loan that the proposals would quadruple the
named Basel 3 "endgame" ru les, could defaults and inte rest rates do not come risk-weighting given to "tax equity"
raise the capital requirements on some down much-earnings would probably investments, a crucial source of financ
American banks by as much as a quarter remain only around their present levels . ing for green-energy proj ects under
if they are introduced in their current Then there are the capital rules . I f President Joe B iden's Inflation Reduction
form in 2025. This wou ld scu pper any bankers have t o hoard capital in order to Act. Some lobbyists reportedly may sue
chance that shareholders can be paid boost buffers there will not be much left to the Federa l Reserve for failing to follow
much out of profits, perhaps for years. pay dividends or do buy-backs . Bankers due process and argue that the regulator
Nasty stuff. Indeed, the KBW index of are concerned that the ru les could even should give people more time to com
large American bank stocks has shed 15% spell the end game for their business . ment once it has been followed .
this year, even as American stocks have Jamie Dimon, boss of JPMorgan Chase, These tactics could work. The Fed
risen by 19% . This underperformance, America's biggest bank, has remarked that might water down its plans, or a back
after a decade of mediocrity, means that less regu lated competitors , such as grow and-forth might push the proposals into
banks now make up less than 5% of the ing private-credit firms, should be "danc a grey zone ahead of America's presi
s & P 500 index of large American firms . ing in the streets". Marianne Lake, JPMor dential election . The rules are subject to
Blackstone, a private-markets giant, has gan's head of consu mer banking, has review by Congress, and it will have few
a market capitalisation 20% bigger than described the situation as "a little bit like days i n session next year owing to the
that of Goldman Sachs . Just about any being a hostage". The requi rement was so primaries, su mmer recess and the elec
measure of valuation shows banks to be shocking at first that "even if it changes a tion itsel f. As the od ds of a Republ ican
at or near an all-time low. bit, you sort o f are grateful for that," she presidency rise, so do the chances that a
Yet being cheap is not the same as later review would result in much small
being a bargain. Banks are not startu ps er increases in capital requirements.
sel l i ng a growth story. Nor are they tech Still, an investor might feel queasy at
firms building innovative new products. making that bet. So one looking at banks
Banking is a mature business; its for might turn his attention to Europe in
tunes are closely tied to the macroeco stead. Unlike i n America, funding costs
nomic environment. I nvestors therefore have not climbed much, in part owing to
look for i nstitutions where profits or weaker competition. The result has been
earnings m ight grow i n the near future a steady stream of earnings u pgrades.
a nd where those p rofits may be returned After nine years of negative rates the
to investors via dividends or buy-backs. return to positive ones has been " like
On neither front do American banks rain in the desert", says Huw van Steenis
look appealing. Net i nterest income, a of Oliver Wyman, a consultancy. Extra
measure of the difference between the capita l requirements from Basel 3 are
interest banks earn on loans and that more modest in Europe. An investor
which they pay out on deposits, seems to might want to buy shares in a bank, then.
have peaked . Although rising rates boost But for the first time i n a long time, per
income, the climb in funding costs has haps he should consider a European o ne.
-
ry buying older, less l iqu id issuance-say, whopping 227, 820 shares were shorted, Mitts notes they are a lower l imit identi
ten-year bonds issued s ix months ago-in representing 99% of total volu me. Rather fiable with public data. He thinks that
exchange for new and more l iquid ten than reflecting a souring of market senti they could be "just the tip of the iceberg".
years , which it might start doing from ment, the i ncrease in activity seems to
2024 . The Treasury has acknowledged that have come from just two trades . Then, on
l everage p ractices, which make the basis the first trading day after the attack, Trou ble foretold
trad e possible, warrant i nvestigation. But standard " long" transactions outnu m Vol u m e of short sales i n MSCI Isra el ETF
Ms Liang has added that there are u psides bered short sales by a similar number of 2023, '000 shares
to the trade, such as increased l i qu idity. shares (248,009) . If these trades were 250
Although Hamil ton could not have en made by the same investor, they would October 7th
Hamas attac ks I srael
visaged the network of i nstitutions that correspond to a $1m profit. 200
make u p the mod ern Treasury market, he Other securities also showed suspi
h ad a keen appreciation for speculators, cious patterns. During the three weeks 1 50
who stepped in to buy Treasuries when before the attacks , the number of out
1 00
bondholders lost faith. He would have standing options contracts expi ring on
been more concerned by politicians rolling October 13th on American-traded shares 50
the dice on defaulting a nd the debt stock of Israel i firms-the d erivatives that
than he wou ld have been by enthusiastic would yield the greatest returns if p rices 0
i ntermediators. Plenty of h is successors' moved s harply in the direction a trader Se ptember October N ovember
ideas have broad support. They would ne expected-rose eightfold. In contrast, the Sou rce: "Trading o n terror?", by R.J. Jackson J r and
vertheless do well to remember h is aver number of longer-dated options on such J. M itts, SSRN wo rki ng pa per, 2023
sion to snubbing those keen to trade. ■
► the light from their parent stars. Taking 15 hooks when they need cleaning.
p ictu res of them-so-called d irect i mag S ta rl ight express The E LT's main m irror is so big that it
i ng-is rare. Of the roughly 5 , 500 known Extre mely La rge Te lesco pe, side view cannot be made as a sing le piece. I nstead
exoplanets, scientists have pictures of o nly Schott, a German optics firm, will make
around 1% of them.
I ncoming
.._,
Secondary m i rror M2
I n coming
798 separate pieces that wil l act as a single
light light
mirror. Each is a slightly curved , 1. 5-metre
Time and relative dimension in space wide hexagonal slice of h igh-tech glass ce
The E LT's enormous mirror wil l allow as ramic that u ndergoes almost no thermal
tronomers to separate the faint light of a expansion. The segments are cast i n Ger
planet from the overwhelming glare of its M4 - - many, polished in France, and then mated
star from dozens of light-years away. The with supports produced in the Nether
I nstru ments
-
result should be a direct-imaging bonanza. lands before being transported to Ch ile.
And direct imaging will also h el p reveal the ➔ Each is checked to ensure it has sur
chemical composition of exoplanet atmo
spheres, and whether any show signs of ....:...
M3
vived the trip u nscathed . Ricardo Parra, an
E LT engineer, l ikens the process to ringing
potential alien life. a bell . Vibrations are induced in the glass,
And because telescopes are also time Primary mirror M 1 and measu rements made by accelerom
machines, the E LT wil l allow scientists Sou rce: Europea n Southern Observatory
eters in strategic locations. The segments
more insight into what happened shortly are fi nished by coating them with several
after the universe began. S ince the speed of fu rther layers of chemicals, includ ing a
light is finite, astronomers see distant ob the enti re 5 , 500-tonne dome will be able to 100-nanometre layer of silver that provides
jects not as they are today, but as they were rotate so that the telescope can follow the the reflectivity. (A nanometre is a bill ionth
when the light that arrives in their instru stars as they move across the sky. of a metre.) That silver is protected from
ments fi rst set out. Astronomers are keen One of the few downsides of doing as tarnishing by a layer of hard sil icon nitride
to use the ELT to investigate how stars and tronomy in Chile is that the country is glass. Even so, the ES0 thinks each segment
galaxies formed when the universe was prone to earthquakes. The telescope wi ll will need re-coating every two years.
young. Early results from the James Webb therefore float atop a th in layer of oil. The Getting all 798 segments to work to
Space Telescope, launched in 2021, have al oil, in tu rn, will sit atop hun dreds of rub gether presents another set of d ifficulties .
ready turned up an array of stars and galax ber shock absorbers, with the whole lot To produce a usable image each segment
ies that seem too old to fit easily into exist built on a 3-metre concrete foundation. must be held in a precise position, with an
ing theories of universal evolution . The That will isolate the dome both from earth accuracy of just tens of nanometres. Each
E LT could help resolve that mystery. quakes and any vibrations from the offices is backed by a system of sensors and mo
Assu ming, that is, that everything and laboratories next door. tors that can subtly deform the surface of
works. When your correspondent visited, The most i mpressive parts are the mir the glass in order to correct for warping
the 80-metre-tall steel dome that will shel rors, of which the E LT will have five. Astro due to everything from small temperature
ter the telescope was still being built. Each nomical mirrors are precise, delicate variations to the changing angle of gravity
segment takes around 20 minutes to lift things . Even the comparatively small mir as the mirror moves and tilts.
and slot into place; a fu rther six hours are rors of the big VLT telescopes are so heavy The primary mirror is just the first stop
-
needed to tighten each of the 200 bolts . that, if not supported properly, they would (see d iagram 2) . Light h itting it will be redi
Work must finish before night, lest gusts of shatter under their own weight. Engineers rected towards a secondary and tertiary
wind blow a panel loose. Once fi nished , must lift them with a special harness with mirror, which are designed to correct va
rious subtle optical defects. At arou nd 4
metres across, each could be an impressive
M i rror, m i rro r on the wal l telescope main mirror in its own right.
Size co m pa ri so n of selected o ptica l telesco pe prima ry mirro rs The job of the fourth mirror is to cou n
teract the vagaries of Earth's atmosphere.
0 0 The reason stars appear to twinkle when
seen from the ground is that the atmo
California, US, 1 917 Low-Earth orbit, 1 990
Hooker Telescope H ubble Space Telescope
sphere is constantly churning. Frederic
Gonte, an instrumentation engineer at
00
ES0, compares the effect to peering into
water. "Try to see the ground of the swim
0 0
ming pool , you can see it is moving," he
00
says. "The atmosphere is doing that to us."
Space telescopes avoid this problem by
flyi ng above the atmosphere. Ground
based ones can rely instead on a technolo
Cerro Paranal, Chile Arizona, U S, 2005, 2008 Cerro Armazones, Chile, 2028
Very La rge Telescope La rge Binocular Telescope Extremely Large Telescope
► justments to its shape a thousand times A consortium of scientists from Amer drones. It is also reusable. Most air-de
each second . Without the adjustments, the ica, Canada, India and Japan, meanwhile, fence systems, including America's Patriot
E LT's i mages would be hopelessly blurred . has been trying to build a mega-telescope and Israel's Iron Dome, fire several missiles
Working out exactly how the mirror on Hawaii. The Thirty Meter Telescope at a target to boost the odds of a kill. Un
must be deformed, millisecond by milli would, as its name suggests, be a giant used ones are lost. Roadrunners can talk to
second, requires the presence in the sky of though still smaller than the E LT. But it is each other in flight. If one takes out the tar
something whose shape is known i n ad unclear when, or even if, it will be finished. get, the rest can return home and land .
vance. Comparing what the telescope actu Construction has been halted by argu Both features have precedents. " Loiter
ally sees with what it should see reveals the ments about Mauna Kea, the mountain on ing munitions" such as Israel's mini-Harop
state of the atmosphere at that particular which it is to be built, which is seen as sa or the Polish Warblefly can land, too. The
moment, allowing the system to cou nter cred by some. For the next several decades, Coyote, an air-defence weapon built by
act it. Often the object in question is a it seems, anyone wanting access to the big RTX , an American firm previously known
bright star near the object being studied. If gest telescope money can buy will have to as Raytheon, also has modular payloads.
no convenient star is available, though , as make their way to northern Chile. ■ But putting everything together is new.
tronomers can create an artificial one. "La Anduril claims Roadru nner is " far su
ser guide stars" are made by firing fou r perior" to competing missiles, with higher
bright orange laser beams upwards so that Anti-d rone technology take-off speed , a bigger payload and ten
Meep-meep. Boom!
they converge in a single point around 90 times the range. Brian Schimpf, the firm's
kilometres up, above the atmosphere's boss, says it can also cope with faster, more
thickest layers . Because the system knows evasive drones likely to appear over the
exactly what the ersatz star should look coming years, which might be comparable
like, it can make whatever mirror-twisting to high-end cruise missiles.
adjustments are needed. Perhaps. Comparing air-defence sys
You might think that once the E LT is up Anduril hopes its "Roadrunner" tems is tricky, for they are designed for dif
and running, all other telescopes will be ferent things. Iron Dome deals with small
missile will shake up arms-makers
rendered obsolete. That is not really true, rockets. Patriot handles large missiles and
for even a machine such as the E LT cannot
do everything. The twin Keck telescopes in
Hawaii, for example, once the world 's larg
Pstartup,
ALM E R LUCKEY is no stranger to hype. In
2014 he sold Oculus, a virtual-reality
to Face book for $2bn, kickstarting
planes. Coyote is built for what the Penta
gon calls Group One and Two d rones,
which weigh less than 25kg and fly below
est, have mirrors that are a comparatively the current wave of interest in VR. In 2017 3 , 500 feet (1,069 metres) . Roadrunner is de
puny ten metres across. But they have the he co-founded Anduril, another startup, signed for Group Three threats, which can
advantage of sitting on a substantially tall this time focused on weapons. On Novem weigh almost 600kg and fly up to 18,000
er mountain, where the seeing is even bet ber 29th Mr Luckey said And uril would re feet, like the Iranian Shahed-136 drones
ter than it is in Chile. And the fact that lease "a radical new category of weapon that Russia has used to attack Ukraine.
there are two of them means they can serve that is totally unlike anything that has A Coyote costs about $100,000 per unit.
twice as many astronomers at once. come before it". On December 1st he un Roadrunner is priced at "low six figures".
The V LT, and other multi-mirror tele veiled Roadru nner, a missile-cum-drone. That makes it "not much cheaper than
scopes, can also use a technique called in It is not revolutionary. But it is interesting. many existing air-defence missiles that
terferometry, a clever way of combining Roadrun ner has two party tricks . Its can engage a far wider range of higher-end
signals such that resolving power depends payload can be changed depending on the threats", like cruise missiles, says Justin
not on the size of individual mirrors, but mission. Sensors can be installed for sur Bronk of the R U S I think-tank in London.
on the distance between them. For the VLT veillance, for instance. But the company's He points to NASAMS, a Norwegian-Amer
that is more than 100 metres. On the other emphasis is on Roadru nner-M, which is ican system which uses off-the-shelf mis
hand , that resolving power comes at the explosive-tipped and designed to destroy siles. The cheapest cost around $400,000
cost of a narrower field of view. The E LT is to $500,000 each.
not competing with telescopes like the VLT, Nonetheless, America's special forces
says Dr Gonte. "I t's completing." have already bought a few Roadrunners.
Anduril will hope large-scale production
Ain't no replacement for displacement can bring costs down. But anti-drone tech
But when it comes to detecting the dim nology is a crowded fiel d . In 2019 an Amer
mest and most d istant objects, there is no ican destroyer downed an Iranian drone
substitute for sheer light-gathering size. using electronic warfare. High-powered
On that front the E LT looks like being the fi microwave weapons and lasers have been
nal word for the foreseeable future. A fitted on warships and tested at air bases.
planned successor, the "Overwhelmingly Road runner's theatrical launch reflects
Large Telescope", would have sported a a divide in America's arms i ndustry. Critics
100-metre mirror. But it was shelved i n the see the country's established firms as com
2000s on grounds of complexity and cost. placent and lazy, and welcome disruption
The Giant Magellan Telescope is currently from scrappy newcomers such as Anduri l .
being built several hundred kilometres Indeed, Roadrunner's name is a deliberate
south of the E LT on land owned by the Car dig. In the Looney Tunes cartoon of the
negie I nstitution for Science, an American same name, the nimble road runner out
non-profit, and is due to see its first light wits Wile E. Coyote's attempts to catch it
some time in the 2030s. It will combine with needlessly complicated gadgets. The
seven big mirrors into one giant one with big players, for their part, roll their eyes at
an effective diameter of 25.4 metres. Even upstarts with little experience of mass pro
so, it will have only around a third the duction. But there is nothing like a little
light-gathering capacity of the E LT. The Acme of a nti-d rone tech nol ogy? competition to spur everybody on. ■
Shelf help
of lost innocence, as she learns that the
vast majority of people in the Philippines
supported their president's lawless war on
drugs, in which perhaps 27, 000 people
were killed extra-judicially.
This year's picks transport readers to the top of mountains,
out to sea and back in time Sparks. By Ian Johnso n .
A Pulitzer-prizewinning journalist
feminists' struggle for equality with global describes the valiant efforts of China's
Current affa irs and pol itics resonance. It describes how many South "underground historians", a motley and
Koreans still see women only as cooks, persistent group of academics, artists,
cleaners and "baby-making machines" film-makers and journalists attempting
Deadly Quiet City. By Murong Xuecun. and tells tales of misogyny, from spycams to correct the official record and provide
I n 2020, at the start of the pandemic, in public toilets to bigots in public office. truthful accounts of history. An insight
a celebrated Chinese writer interviewed into the risks that some Chinese take to
people in Wuhan about their experiences The Kingdom, the Power and the Glory. illuminate the darkest episodes of Com
du ring lockdown. His brave and vital book By Tim Alberta. munist Party rule.
follows eight people, including a doctor This chronicle of the modern evangelical
at a small hospital, an unlicensed driver movement i n America is a horror story
of a motorcycle taxi and a citizen journal told from the inside. Its author, a staff Business and economics
ist, whose daring efforts resulted i n a writer for the Atlan tic, is angry and heart
prison sentence. broken as he watches the religious com
munity in which he was brought up being Anansi's Gold . By Yepoka Yeebo.
Fear Is Just a Word. By Azam Ahmed. hij acked by power-hungry hucksters and This is the story of one of the world's
Since the early 2000s, the number of right-wing nationalists. greatest (but least famous) con artists .
Mexicans who have disappeared and not Ghana's John Ackah Blay-Miezah bilked
yet been fou nd has risen from a handful to Some People Need Killing. investors on several continents by prom
more than 100,000. A journalist for the By Patricia Evangelista. ising he knew where lost gold was hidden.
New York Times tracks Miriam, whose A rigorously reported look at Rodrigo Exhaustive reporting by the author makes
youngest daughter is kid napped and then Duterte's campaign against illegal d rugs this a welcome addition to the canon on
killed by the Zeta gang. By focusing on one great swindlers.
mother's extraordinary story, the author
➔ Also in this section
evokes the cartels' painful toll. Best Things First. By Bjorn Lomborg .
77 Staff books in 2023 A forceful argument to replace the sprawl
Flowers of Fire. By Hawo n ]ung. ing and vague Sustainable Development
79 Johnson: The top word of 2023
A brilliant examination of South Korean Goals from the United Nations with 12 ►►
► cost-effective policies to hel p the world's of the final years of Sumner Redstone, J.L. Austin. By M.W Rowe.
poor. "Some things are difficult to fix, cost an American media mogul who died i n Most people are lucky if they enjoy o ne
a lot and hel p l ittle," the author writes. 2020. Like a lot of reality TV , "Unscripted" distinguished career: J. L. Austin had two.
Others are solved "at low cost, with re is riveting because its cast is so awfu l . It He shook up the study of philosophy at
markable outcomes". delves into (someti mes excruciating) Oxford. And, as this scrupulous and
detail about his d omineering character e ngrossing biography shows, he played
The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level. and extraordinary antics. a crucial role as an i ntel ligence analyst in
By Joh n Cochrane. the Allied i nvasion of France in 1944.
An economics professor at Stanford Uni
versity builds out a new(ish) theory for Biogra phy and memoi r King. By Jonathan Big.
how government debt, not interest rates, This magnificent biography is an overdue
ultimately determines prices. Not for the attempt to grapple with Martin Luther
faint-hearted, this book is provocative to Hitler, Stalin, Mum and Dad. King in all his complexity. The author,
economists and well-timed for an age of By Dan iel Finkelstein . an American journalist, makes the civil
big deficits and h igh i nflation. Both sides of the author's family were rights leader's courage and moral vision
remarkable. His maternal grandfather, seem all the more exceptional for having
The Geek Way. By Andrew McAfee. Alfred Wiener, was a prominent German come from a man with so many ordinary
A tech nology-and-business gu ru at M I T Jew who created the most extensive hu man flaws.
explains how the mindset that inspires archives documenting the Holocaust;
Silicon Valley could be usefully applied Alfred's wife and daughters were deported Milton Friedman. By Jennifer B u rns.
in life and in other fields of bus iness, with to a concentration camp. The author's The most complete biography of the econ
a focus on teamwork, producing proto paternal grand mother was transported to omist who d id more than any other to
types quickly and avoiding bureau- a gulag in S iberia. A tale of survival , elo inspire free-market reforms arou nd the
cracy through individ ual accountability. quently told . world in the 1980s. It documents Fried
man's role in shaping laissez-faire eco
How Big Things Get Done. Ian Fleming. By Nicholas Shakespea re. nomic policies and libertarian thought
By Ben t Flyvbjerg a nd Dan G a rdner. To be published in America in Ma rch. and shows his enduring relevance, despite
Mega projects often turn into megasnafus. Al most everyone on Earth has heard of the world's protectionist tu rn .
This entertaining book, co-written by an James Bond. Bu t fewer know the details of
academic at Oxford University and a jour how exciting and tormented the life of Monet. By Jackie Wullschlager.
nalist, looks at why ambitious schemes so 007's creator, Ian Fleming, was. This bio Written sympathetically and with skill
consistently miss deadlines and budgets graphy has flaws, but it will still be re by the chief art critic of the Financial
and what can be done about it. Project membered as definitive, tracing Fleming's Times, this is the first account in English
management has never been more fun . childhood, military service, espionage, of the much-loved artist's life and work.
love affairs and writing career. Monet was a tempestuous man, whose
Material World. By Ed Conway. most lasting relationship-in art as in
The economics and data ed itor of Sky Into the Amazon. By La rry Rohter. life-was with water.
News in Britain travels the world in this Candido Rondon, an orphan from Brazil's
study of how six crucial materials-cop poor hinterland , rose to become a military Still Pictures. By Ja net Malcolm .
per, iron, lithium, oil , salt and sand-have officer who oversaw monumental engi A kind of posthumous memoir in which a
altered hu man history and underpin the neering works in the Amazon and pio New Yorker writer (who d ied in 2021 and
modern economy. As countries seek to neered a non-violent approach to local famously compared journalists to con
decarbonise, a battle is raging to control ind igenou s groups. A vivid look at a hero men) probes memory, childhood and
their supply. whose humanism was ahead of his time, storytelling itself. "Do we ever write about
by a journalist for the New York Times. our parents without perpetrating a fraud?"
The Missing Billionaires. she asks, with characteristic incisiveness.
By Victor Haghan i a nd James Wh ite.
A compelling book dealing with an impor Waiting to Be Arrested at Night.
tant and neglected question in finance: By Tah ir Ham u t Izgil. Translated by
not what to buy or sell , but how much. Josh ua Freeman.
Even sophisticated professionals tend to A memoir from a Uyghur poet now living
answer this question badly, lead ing to lost in exile in America. He recounts how
fortu nes . But financial theory provides the Xinjia ng was transformed into a pan
answer. Mathematical but not excessively opticon of state control , as the Chinese
so, this will appeal to anyone with an government began the detention and
interest in markets. torture of Uyghu r Muslims. An urgent tale
of survival and subversion.
Scaling People. By Claire Hughes Johnson .
Good books about the nuts and bolts o f Wifedom: Mrs Orwell's Invisible Life.
management are vanishingly rare. A for By Anna Funder.
mer executive at Google and Stripe offe rs a In this thought-provoking inquiry i nto the
practical guide to everythi ng from giving life of Eileen O'Shaughnessy, George
feedback a nd delegating to running a Orwell's long-suffering wife, the author's
meeting and building teams. aim is not to "cancel" Orwell, a thinker she
deeply admires. I nstead, by imaginatively
Unscripted. resurrecti ng E i leen, she explores patri
By James Stewart a nd Rachel A brams. archy and asks why women still vanish
A deeply reported a nd unsparing account into subordinate roles . ►►
The Blazing World. By Jon a than Healey. around 30 emperors over 2 50 years. Read
H i story A page-tu rning yet erudite history of the ers wil l e njoy learning about the lives of
17th century in revol utionary E ngland . these b lood-splashed , technicolour rulers.
This accou nt of a time of rel igious and Prepare to be shocked and entertained .
A Day in the Life of Abed Salama. political turmoil, i ntellectu al ferment,
By Natha n Th rall. scientific innovation and media upheaval In Her Nature. By Rachel Hewitt.
An American journalist i n Jerusalem is accessible and abounds with contemp For hundreds of years, women have had
examines the events that led up to a bus orary resonances. to fight for space to pursue outdoor sport.
crash in the West Bank in 2012 that killed This inspi ring book interweaves the
six Palestinian children and one of their Emperor of Rome. By Mary Beard . author's personal story of loss with the
teachers. Part history, jou rnalism, d iatribe A much-loved Cambridge professor, hidden h istory of trailblazing women who
and lament, the book bu ilds a relentless known for her passion for unearthing the became cyclists, h ikers, mountaineers
case that this crash and the ensuing trau " real" Rome, describes a chariot-load of and runners.
ma must be remembered. extraordinary characters, examining
Judgment at Tokyo. By Gary Bass.
To be published in Brita in in Ja n uary.
A meticulously researched and author
Fro m o u r desks to you r l i b ra ry itative account of efforts to prosecute and
pu nish Japanese generals and politicians
deemed responsible for some of the hor
rors of the second world war. The author,
The Eco nomist's writers were busy this yea r
a former writer for The Economist, looks
Age o f the City. at why attempts to produce a shared sense
By Tom Lee-Devlin a nd Ia n Goldin. of justice failed .
One of our business correspondents
examines how cities came to dominate The Lumumba Plot. By Stuart Reid.
the global economy and explains how An editor at Fo reign Affa irs recounts the
they will solve issues, including climate rise and demise of Patrice Lumu mba, who
change and inequality, in the years was prime minister of post-independence
ahead . Richard Florida, an u rban theor Congo for less than th ree months in 1960
ist, called it "the book we need now." before he was assassinated, establis hing
the playbook for future C I A interventions.
Always Take Notes. A shameful story, recounted with verve
Edited by Rachel Lloyd a nd Simo n Aka m . and thoughtfu lness.
A compendium of writing advice, co
edited by our deputy cu lture editor. Revolutionary Spring.
Celebrated authors , including Ian Mc By Christopher Clark.
Ewan and Elif Shafak, reflect on their A h istorian at Cambridge University traces
careers and creative process. ''An invalu the events leading up to and following the
able repository of wisdom that you can year 1848-when revolutions spread to
return to over and again", said the Fence. almost every country in Europe. " Hier
archies beat networks. Power prevailed
Carmageddon. By Da niel Knowles. over ideas and arguments ," he writes. This
A polemic against the dominance of book features a compelling cast of ide
automobiles, by our Midwest corre alists , thinkers, propagandists and cynics
spondent, which argues that cars threat Spain. By Michael Reid. and argues that their sacrifices were not
en the climate, u ndermine cities and An account of Spain's democratic wholly in vain.
make people economically worse off. achievements since Franco, by a former
" Briskly written" and "well researched", correspondent and senior editor. "Reid On Savage Shores.
accord ing to the New Yorker. has a gift for making the abstruse acces By Caroline D odds Pen nock.
sible," said the Wall S treet Journal. An absorbing accou nt of indigenous peo
Lifescapes. By A n n Wroe. ples in 16th-century Europe. Using archi
Ou r obituaries editor reflects on 20 years Vienna. By Richard Cockett. val docu ments and oral histories, the
of recording the l ives of other people in a One of our senior editors traces Vienna's study shatters the Eurocentric assumption
collage of prose, poetry and memoir. rich intellectual h istory from psycho that, hal f a millenniu m ago, peop le and
''Astonishing", said the Daily Te leg rap h. a nalysis to Reaga nomics . This book ideas flowed in only one direction, from
Named a book of the year by the London looks at how history, science and culture the old world to the "new".
Times, the Financial Times and the Times have been shaped by the city of Sigmund
Litera ry S upplement. Freud and Gustav Mahler. The Financial The Wager. By David Grann.
Times thought it was "illu mi nating". A thrill i ng account of a shipwreck off the
The Shining Mountains. coast of Patagonia in 1741 from the author
By Alix Christie. Writing with Style. By Lane G reene. of "Killers of the Flower Moon" (recently
A novel about the North American fur Our guide on how to write with style, adapted into a film by Martin Scorsese) .
trade i n the 19th centu ry, by one of our updated by our language columnist. ''A It revolves around three complex figures.
regular contributors to the Cultu re sec succi nct yet comprehensive d istillation Those who love yarns i nvolving cannon
tion. An "original, truly epic and memo of The Eco nomist's long-standi ng p hiloso fire, sea-chests and mainmasts will find
rable saga", said the M idwest Book Review. phy of language," said MultiLingual. this book worth p lu nging into, as wil l
those less i ntrigued b y the age of sai l . ►►
► temperatu res threaten environments and Time to Think. By Hannah Barnes. cheapness and abundance of "ultra-p ro
societies . The author, a climate journalist, This book focuses on a medical scandal at cessed" food comes at a cost. (Warning:
tells h is story through intrepid reporting a paediatric gender clinic in Britain, but it this book may ruin the j oy of junk food .)
and memorable characters . It is o ne of the also tackles a controversy that is playing
rare books on climate change that anyone out across the rich world : how to treat What an Owl Knows.
can pick up and u nderstand. gender-identity dysphoria in chil d ren. By Jenn ifer Ackerman .
A j ou rnalistic and sobering take on a A natu ral-history writer draws on recent
Outlive. By Peter Attia. divisive subject. research to explain the allu re of owls. An
A longevity expert shows just how behind ear tuft-to-tail appreciation of the raptor
the times much of modern med icine is, Ultra-Processed People. that Mary Oliver, a poet, called the "god of
partly because it so often seeks to cure By Chris van Tulleken. plunge and blood". ■
rather than prevent chronic d isease. There There is much to cheer about calories
are simple things people can do to l ive being cheap and abundant, when for most All books on this list a re ava ilable fo r sale in
longer and more healthily. of history they were neither. But the A merica or Britain.
Joh nson 's choice for 2 023 will b e o n people 's lips for yea rs to come
I' l� I 1: Y ..
BA
EXECU IVE
EDUCATI ON
Cutting edge & innovative learning for
the global financ,al services sector
bangor:.ac.uk/Executive-Education
Economic data
G ross domestic prod uct Con sumer p rices U n employment Cu rrent-account Bu dget I nterest rates Cu rrency u nits
% change on year ago % change on year ago rate ba lance balance 1 0-yr gov't bonds cha nge on per $ % cha nge
latest qua rter* 2023t latest 2023t % % of GDP, 2023t % of G DP, 2023t latest,% year ago, bp Dec 6th on year ago
U nited States 3.0 Q3 5.2 2.4 3.2 Oct 4.1 3.9 Oct -2.8 -6.3 4.1 6 1 .0
Chi na 4.9 Q3 5.3 5.5 -0.2 Oct 0.7 5.0 Oct:!=§ 1 .8 -3.8 2.6 §§ -1 3.0 7.1 6 -2.2
Japan 1 .2 Q 3 -2.1 1 .8 3.3 Oct 3.2 2.5 Oct 3.1 -5.1 0.7 39.0 1 47 -7.2
Britain 0.6 Q 3 -0. 1 0.4 4.6 Oct 6.8 4.3 Juntt -3.2 -3.5 4.2 90.0 0.79 3.8
Ca nada 0.5 Q3 - 1 .1 1 .1 3.1 Oct 4.0 5.8 Nov -0.4 - 1 .3 3.3 50.0 1 .36 nil
Euro a rea 0.1 Q3 -0.2 0.7 2.4 Nov 5.5 6.5 Oct 2.3 -3.4 2.2 40.0 0.93 2.1
Austri a - 1 .8 Q3 - 2. 1=I= -0.3 4.9 Nov 7.7 5.1 Oct 2.6 -2.4 2.8 3 5.0 0.93 2. 1
Belgiu m 1 .4 Q3 1 .6 1 .3 -0.7 Nov 2.6 5.6 Oct -1 .3 -4.6 2.9 43.0 0.93 2. 1
France 0.6 Q3 -0.5 0.9 3.8 Nov 5.7 7.3 Oct - 1 .0 -5.0 2.9 62.0 0.93 2.1
Germ a ny -0.4 Q3 -0.5 -0.2 2.3 Nov 6.0 3.1 Oct 5.5 -2.4 2.2 40.0 0.93 2. 1
Greece 1 .8 Q3 0. 1 2.4 3.8 Oct 4.0 9.6 Oct -6.5 -2.1 3.4 -43.0 0.93 2. 1
Ita ly 0. 1 Q3 0.4 0.7 0.7 Nov 6.1 7.8 Oct 0.7 -5.3 3.9 28.0 0.93 2. 1
Netherla nds -0.6 Q3 -0.8 0.2 1 .4 Nov 4.5 3.6 Oct 8. 1 - 1 .9 2.5 44.0 0.93 2.1
Spain 1 .8 Q3 1 .3 2.3 3.2 Nov 3.5 1 2.0 Oct 1 .6 -4.1 3.4 6 1 .0 0.93 2.1
Czech Republic - 1 .0 Q3 -2.1 -0.5 8.5 Oct 1 0.6 3.0 Oct* -1 .4 -3.9 4.1 -64.0 22.5 2.8
Denmark 0.2 Q 3 -0.3 1 .5 0.1 Oct 3.8 2.8 Oct 1 1 .1 1 .5 2.5 40.0 6.9 1 2.5
Norway - 1 .9 Q3 -2.1 1 .4 4.0 Oct 5.8 3.6 Sep** 1 7.1 1 0.8 3 .4 30.0 1 0.9 -8.8
Poland 0.5 Q3 6.1 0.4 6.5 Nov 1 1 .3 5.0 Nov§ 1 .1 -4.8 5.3 -1 29 4.01 1 1 .5
Russia 5.5 Q3 na 2.8 6.7 Oct 6.2 2.9 Oct§ 3.0 -2.8 1 2.1 1 77 93.0 -32.0
Sweden - 1 .4 Q 3 - 1 .2 -0.6 6.5 Oct 6.0 7.4 Oct§ 4.6 -0.3 2.4 62.0 1 0.4 -0.4
Switzerl and 0.3 Q3 1 .1 0.8 1 .4 Nov 2.2 2.1 Oct 7.4 -0.7 0.7 -3 5.0 0.87 8.1
Turkey 5.9 Q3 1 .1 3.4 62.0 Nov 53.1 8.9 Sep§ -4.6 -5.0 23.2 1 ,273 28.9 -35.5
Austra l ia 2.1 Q3 0.9 1 .9 5.4 Q3 5.7 3.7 Oct 0.6 0.5 4.3 88.0 1 .52 -2.0
Hong Kong 4.1 Q3 0.3 3.4 2.8 Oct 2.0 2.9 Oct** 6.7 - 1 .5 3.7 2 2.0 7.81 -0.5
I nd i a 7.6 Q3 8.6 6.5 4.9 Oct 5.7 8.1 Apr -1 .3 -5.9 7.2 nil 83.3 -0.8
I nd onesi a 4.9 Q3 na 4.9 2.9 Nov 3.8 5.3 Q3§ 0.6 -2.5 6.6 -27.0 1 5,492 0.8
Malaysia 3.3 Q3 na 4.0 1 .8 Oct 2.6 3.4 Sep§ 1 .7 -5.0 3.7 -33.0 4.67 -5.8
Pakista n nil 2023** na 1 .7 29.2 Nov 3 1 .8 6.3 202 1 -0. 1 -7.6 1 5.1 ttt 1 56 285 -21 .3
Philippi nes 5.9 Q 3 1 3 .9 4.1 4.1 Nov 6.0 4.2 Q4§ -4.5 -7.2 6.2 -7 2.0 55.3 1 .2
Singapore 1 .1 Q3 5.6 0.9 4.7 Oct 4.9 2.0 Q3 1 8.8 -0.7 2.9 -1 5.0 1 .34 1 .5
South Ko rea 1 .3 Q3 2.5 1 .3 3.3 Nov 3.7 2.1 Oct§ 2.2 -2.7 3.5 2.0 1 ,3 1 3 0.5
Taiwan 2.3 Q3 7.8 1 .2 2.9 Nov 2.5 3.4 Oct 1 3.4 -0.2 1 .3 -1 2.0 3 1 .5 - 2.7
Thailand 1 .5 Q3 3.1 2.8 -0.3 Oct 1 .6 0.9 Sep§ 0.5 -2.7 2.8 29.0 35.2 -0.3
Argentina -4.9 Q 2 - 1 0.9 -1 .0 1 43 Oct 1 34.2 6.2 Q2§ -3.4 -4.3 na na 364 -53.4
Brazil 2.0 Q3 0.6 3.0 4.8 Oct 4.6 7.6 Oct§:!=:!= - 1 .6 -7.6 1 0.9 -203 4.90 6.7
Chile 0.6 Q3 1 .3 -0.2 5.0 Oct 7.6 8.9 Octm -4.0 -3.2 5.6 30.0 870 1 .2
Col om bia -0.3 Q3 1 .0 1 .6 1 0.5 Oct 1 1 .8 9.2 Oct§ -4.0 -4.2 1 0.6 -1 94 3,992 20.6
Mexico 3.3 Q3 4.3 3.4 4.3 Oct 5.5 2.7 O ct -1 .4 -3.8 9.2 1 4.0 1 7.3 1 4.6
Peru - 1 .0 Q3 - 1 .1 -0.3 3.6 Nov 6.5 6.1 Oct§ -1 .3 -2.9 6.9 -7 2.0 3.76 2.4
Egypt 2.9 02 na 3.8 35.9 Oct 37.5 7.1 Q3§ - 1 .8 -6.7 na na 30.9 -20.5
Israel 3.5 Q3 2.8 0.9 3.7 Oct 4.3 3.1 Oct 5.4 -4.9 4.0 75.0 3.70 -7.6
Saudi Arabia 8.7 2022 na -1 .1 1 .6 Oct 2.3 4.9 Q2 3.0 - 1 .9 na na 3.75 0.3
South Africa -0.7 Q3 - 1 .0 0.7 6.1 Oct 5.9 3 1 .9 Q3§ - 1 .8 -5.2 1 0.0 -63.0 1 8.9 -8. 1
Source: Haver Analytics. *% change on previ ous quarter, annual rate. tThe Econom ist I nte lligence U nit estimate/forecast. §Not seasona lly adj usted. *New series. **Year endi ng J u ne. ttLatest 3 months. **3-month moving
average. §§S-year yi eld. tttDol la r-denominated bonds. Note: Euro area consumer prices are harmonised .