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‫العـــام الجامعــــى ‪ – 2020 / 2019‬دور مايـــــو‬

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‫أوال‪ :‬البيانات الخاصة بالطالب‬

‫الشعبة‬ ‫رقم المجموعة‬ ‫الفرقة الدراسية‬

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‫ثانيا‪ :‬البيانات الخاصة بالبحث‬

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‫‪δ / 2020 /‬‬ ‫تاريخ الارسال‬

‫ثالثا‪ :‬البيانات الخاصة بالكنترول‬

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 Abstract
After the end of the World War, 4 theories emerged that competed in economics, they are: (The
linear stages of growth model - Theories and pattern of structural change - The international
dependence revolution - The neoclassical free market counterrevolution)
Over the course of many years, many other schools appeared on the process of economic
growth, the most important of which were the two schools that appeared in the 1970s and
competed with some
First school: It took care of the structural change of the economy
Second school: The international dependency revolution which realizes the political role in
economic development.
We will discuss the pros and cons of all theories
First: the linear stage theory
Agricultural countries lacked important concepts to analyze the process of economic growth,
but they benefited from the experiences of the "Marshall Plan" that European countries
followed to develop their economies.
Rostow's theory
He explained that in order to move from stagnation and backwardness to development, a series
of stages or steps must be followed، He explained in his book" stages of economic growth" it is
possible to identify all societies with their economic dimensions through 5 stages are:
(The traditional society - The preconditions for trade off into self-sustaining growth - The take-
off - The drive to maturity - the age of high mass consumption)
The Harrod-Domar Growth model: the more savings in the form of investments, the more
economic growth and increase GDP
Constraint of stage :saving is an important to the main obstacle to development is the level of
new capital formation in most.
We conclude from Lewis' theory that when a person takes into account the idea of bias to save
labor from the presence of capital flight in large part, the absence of surplus labor in rural areas,
the spread in civilized areas and the high wages of the modern sector even the places where
unemployment is open. The sector requires a major change in the assumptions to suit
developing countries. The concern of this model is that with increasing revenues in the
industrial sector, there are problems that arise in developing development policies.
The theory of patterns of development is influenced by economic thought and is an
interconnected chain of steps in which the faculty changes economic thought as it does not
conform to the theory of lewis and rostow
Structural change is concerned with savings and investment, but it did not achieve its objective,
so microcosm images deny its theory of identifying resources and services through an analytical
process of those resources, then look at how these resources are allocated, which is consistent
with the theories of primitive economics and neoclassical economics.

Introduction

The Second World War is the most comprehensive and costly war in history, due to the
expansion of the war space and the multiplicity of places of war, and the number of its victims
was many as it removed the difference between soldiers and civilians so that all people became
soldiers to protect the state, All the countries involved in the war were playing on all aspects of
economic, social and psychological life, but the strong impact was from the economic point of
view. The war cost huge costs and the countries suffered from widespread hunger and poverty.
Therefore, every country was striving to develop its economy, so each country took the
necessary measures to improve the standard of living and health. Over the years, many theories
have emerged that help in economic growth, and through our topic we will study these theories.

Body
The economy is the main pillar of any developed country, so after the end of the global war and
the resulting mass destruction of most of the countries of the world, every country has wanted to
rise and regain its strength again and try to adjust and develop its economy, and that required
great effort and years as well and each country had its own way to grow and develop its
economy. But in this period there was more than one dominant strategy and also competing
with each other in the world, they are: (The linear stages of growth model - Theories and pattern
of structural change - The international dependence revolution - The neoclassical free market
counterrevolution).
After that a specific path and approach emerged and it is he who explains all the strategies and
theories.
During the period 1950: 19δ0, some economists explained that in order to develop the economy,
we must follow a series of gradual stages of economic growth, and that every country must do
in order to overcome the stage of economic stagnation.
The economic theory explains the importance of success in determining the size of investment
and saving, and the correct use of foreign aid for the process of economic development, as the
developing countries should have succeeded in determining this in order to be able to follow the
economic stage and overcome the economic stagnation as the developed countries did.
Linear Stage Approach: During the seventies, two competing schools of thought emerged,
studying the state of the economy and trying to reach a radical solution to the economic crisis:
1. First school: which was concerned with the structural change of the economy and used
statistical analyzes and the theory of modern economics in order to try to form a clear
picture of the internal work plan that would become access to structural change that
enables us to achieve economic growth quickly.
2. Second School: The international dependency revolution, which is another belief, is
explained that the controller of economic growth or stagnation is the strength of the
global and local relations of the state, as it confirmed that political relations have an
impact on the great on economic development.

New and strict policies were put in place to eradicate poverty, reduce unemployment by
providing job opportunities, and that there be equality in income distribution.
During the period 1980: 1990 a new theory spread, called the neoclassical counter-revolution
which demonstrated the importance of free market, open economy, lack of monopoly, and the
ineffectiveness of privatization of public institutions, but this theory also failed due to excessive
government interference in the economy.However, we could not achieve rapid economic
growth through these studies and theories, so new theories have emerged, such as the linear
stages theory and the structural change theory.
Linear stage theories:
After the industrialized countries managed to overcome their economic crisis after the Second
World War, and within a few years, the agricultural countries also began to seriously begin in
the stage of economic growth, but they did not have the ability to analyze the process of
economic development due to the absence of modern economic structures, but they are based on
experiences Gained from the "Marshall Plan" that helped European countries that deteriorated
as a result of the war to build their economy in a few years, and the industrialized countries are
very late, but they had historical experiences that helped them shift their position to the most
advanced industrialized countries in the field of economics.
Rostow's Stages of Groth
It had a strong and significant impact on the model of economic growth, as Rostow explained
that in order to move from the stage of stagnation and underdevelopment to development, a
series of stages or steps through which all countries of the world must pass should be followed.
He clarified in his book “Stages of economic development” that it is possible to get to know all
societies with their economic dimensions through five stages, they are: (The traditional society -
The preconditions for trade off into self-sustaining growth - The take off - The drive to maturity
- The age of high mass consumption)
Many studies have shown in most of the countries that have followed these stages in continuous
economic growth.
The Harrod-Domar Growth model
The Harrod-Domar model is a Keynesian model of economic Growth. It is explain an
economy's growth rate of the level of saving and of Capital, so it is used in development
economy.
For more than once, The Harrod-Domar model was developed that first time in 1939 by Royal
Harrod, and in 194δ by Evsey Domar.
In the Harrod-Domar model, there are 3 Kinds of growth:
1. Warranted growth.
2. Actual growth.
3. Natural rate of growthEvery economy must save a certain proportion of its national income,
to replace impaired capital goods such as equipment and materials. For grow, new
investments are net additions to capital stock, which is necessary.

when assume that there is direct relationship between the size of the total capital stock ,K, and
total GDP , Y , So any net additions to capital stock are represent new investments will increase
in the flow of national output, GDP , and we can assume that the capital output as 3 to 1 and
assume it is K , also assume that national net saving ratio as s , and it is fixed proportion of
national output , and that total new investment is determined by level of total saving .
The following simple model economic growth:-
1. Net saving (S) is some proportion, s, of national income (Y)
S =s Y
2. Net investment (I) is defined as the change in the capital stock, K, and can be represented by
ΔK such that:
I = ΔK
But because the total capital stock, K, represents direct relationship to total national income or
output, Y, as expressed by the capital-output ratio, c
K/Y= c Or Δ K/ΔY= c
And Finally,
ΔK = c ΔY
1/c is a measure of the efficiency of capital utilization.
3. Finally, because net national savings, S, must equal net investment, I, we can write this
equality as: S = 1
But Because that (S = s Y), and that (I = ΔK = c ΔY)
The "identity" of saving equaling investment
S = s Y = c ΔY = ΔK = |
As SY = c ΔY
Dividing both sides by Y and c,
ΔY/Y = s/c
ΔY/Y represented the rate change or rate of growth of GDP,
(ΔY>Y) is determined by the net national savings ratio, s, and the national capital-output ratio,
c.
In the absence of the government, there will be a positive relationship between the growth rate
of national income and savings and an negative relationship between the rate of economy and
capital.
This equation is also represented to gross savings, SG, in this case the growth rate is given by:
ΔY / Y = SG / C- δ
Where δ is the rate of capital depreciation.
The economic logic is very simple, In order to achieve growth, economies must be saved and
invest a proportion of the gross domestic product, as the greater the investment and savings, the
greater the growth, but the actual rate of growth is the amount of additional output that occurs
when an additional unit investment and can be measured inverse the ratio of the capital to the
output because this is inverse 1>c, is simply the output-capital or output-investment ratio.
The multiplying the rate of new investment
I=
1>Y, by its productivity, 1 >C, will give the rate by which national income or GDP will
increase.
Investing is not the only component of growth, but there are two other components of growth,
firstly the workforce and secondly technological progress. The Harrod-domar model of growth
did not specify the description of the growth of the labor force, as it was assumed that in
developing countries there is a surplus of labor that can be employed according to the need for it
in a proportion Capital investments and this is not always true and general. The model
identified technological progress as a decrease in the ratio of the resulting capital required,
which increases the growth of the level of the specified investment.
We can know that the percentage changes over time in response to the work of financial
markets and the political environment and finally the focus was on the role of capital
investment.
Obstacles and constraints:
When looking at the stages of growth theories and using the harrod_domar growth model, we
find that the most important strategies for economic growth are increasing national income for
savings because when you raise savings it will increase Δ Y / Y, the rate of GDP
For example: if the national capital output ratio (c) in some less developed country is, 3 and the
aggregate net saving ratio (s) is δ% the country is grow at a rate of 2% per year because ΔY / Y
= s / C = δ% / 3 = 2%
Now if the national net savings rate increased from δ% to, 15% -Because of a lot of changes
like increasing of taxes, foreign aid ...-GDP growth can be increased from 2% to 5% because
now AY / Y = s / C = 15% / 3 = 5%.
Rostow and the others defined the take-off stage when countries that are able to save 15 to 20%
of GDP can grow faster than countries that save less and also this will be country-specific
growth and therefore the mechanisms for economic growth for development will be a sign of
increasing national saving and investment.
According to the theory, the main obstacle to development is the low level of new capital
formation in most poor countries, and the state may resort to foreign assistance or private
foreign investment, that is, if it is unable to achieve savings and state investments seeking to
bridge the savings gap
Thus, "capital constraint" has become one of the foundations of growth and development. It was
a cold war policy as an opportunistic tool to justify massive transfers of capital and technical
assistance from developed countries to developing countries, this was a Marshall Plan for the
developing world.
Necessary versus sufficient conditions some criticisms of the stages model: The mechanisms of
development that were represented in the theory of stages of growth will not be activated yet,
not because of increased savings and investment because it is not a condition for the occurrence
of rapid economic growth rates, but because it is not sufficient One of the tools useful in
searching for definitions that determine the necessary and sufficient conditions is the
application of the term or the use of the concept or the occurrence of a phenomenon or an
event ,For example, without water and oxygen, there would be no human life. Because there are
necessary conditions for the existence of humans. There are difficulties in defining the concepts
of necessary and sufficient conditions as a definition of the terms "necessary" and "sufficient",
which indicates ambiguity in the concepts of necessary and sufficient conditions. The Marshall
Plan stressed the need to possess the necessary structural, institutional and attitudinal conditions
(for example, well-integrated commodity and money markets, and highly developed
transportation in Europe because European countries receive assistance facilities, a well-trained
and educated workforce: the driver of success and effective government bureaucracy) to
effectively convert new capital into higher levels of production. The Rostow and Harrod Domar
models implied that these same positions and arrangements existed, but in underdeveloped
countries. In spite of this, it is lacking in many cases, as well as factors such as administrative
efficiency, skilled labor, and the ability to plan and manage a wide range of development
projects. There is also insufficient focus on another strategy to increase clear growth from the
equation: ΔY / Y = s / c Decreasing the ratio of capital to output, which requires an increase in
the efficiency with which investments produce an additional complementary output.
Structure Theory
  What is the structural change theory?
In Economic, Structural change is a change in the basic ways in which a market or an economy
function or operates
The structure changes can move the country by the process of development in terms of shifts
from primary to secondary and the final production
What does this theory focus on?
This theory focuses on the mechanism through the underdeveloped economics to transform
their local economic structures from a sharp focus on conventional subsistence agriculture to
more modern and more industrially variety manufacturing and service economy.
It employs the tools of neoclassical resource allocation theory and modern economics to
describe how this transformation process takes place.
There are two approaches for example:-
1-Two sector surplus labor (theoretical model of W.Arthur Lewis)
2-Patterns of development (empirical analysis of Hollis B. Chenery
The Lewis Theory of Economic Development
The Lewis model is presented in 1955 dominated development theory. Between the 19δ0s. :
1970s. It is also known as the sector model and the surplus labor model. They focused on the
need to shift countries’ structures away from agriculture, with lower labor productivity and
toward industrial activity, with higher labor production.
One of the most famous early theoretical models for development focuses on the structural
transformation of the subsistence economy was made by Nobel Prize winner W.Arthur Lewis in
the mid-1950s and later modified, formalized and extended by John Fei and Gustav Ranis.
Sometimes in China and other developing countries this theory is still applied, particularly to
study the recent growth experience.
In the Lewis model the line of argument runs:
The economy starts with two sectors:-
1-Agricultural sector 2-Industrial sector
In general, Agricultural lacks employment and the marginal productivity of agricultural labor is
virtually zero.
So, moving workers from agricultural sector will not affect the productivity in the economy.
In the industrial sector labor is released for work in more productivity.
Industrialization is now possible due to the increase in the supply of workers who have left the
land or moved from it.
Industrial firms start to gain profits which can be re-use or re-invest it in more industrialization.
As soon a capital accumulates, further economic development can sustain itself.
Evaluation on the Lewis model
Though highly influential at the time, and despite the considerable logic of the Lewis approach,
the benefits of industrialization may be limited because:
1-There are a process called "Money Laundering" through this process profits may leak out of
developing economy and find their way to develop economies.
2-The need of labor in the industrial sector maybe reduced through capital accumulation.
3-this model assumes that there is competitive between labor and products markets which may
not happen in the real life
4-There are problems may be created by urbanization like
squalor /shanty-towns/poverty with unemployment
replacing underemployment
5-The industrialization makes financial benefits it might
not trickle down to the majority of population.
Assumptions
In the Lewis model, underdeveloped economy consists of two sectors:-
1-Traditional overpopulated sector 2-Rural subsistence sector
Lewis makes two assumptions about the traditional sector
 First assumption: there is a surplus labor in the sense that MPLA is zero
 Second assumption: all provincial workers share equally in the output So, the real wages
for the provincial is determined by the average not the marginal product labor.

In the Lewis model, it allowed the modern sector to the capital stock to increase as result of the
reinvestment of profit through industrial capitalist.
Finally, Lewis assumed that the level of wages of the industrial sector is constant, determined as
a given of wages in the agricultural sector.
The following figure will explain this model; we will see that the total output of
Product (TPA) of food is determined by changes in the amount of the only variable input, Labor
(LA). Given a fixed quantity KA and unchanging traditional technology t A.
In the lower-right diagram, we have the average and marginal product of labor curves, APLA
and MPLA, which are derived from the total product curve shown above.
The self-sustaining growth is a process of the modern sector and increase the employment to
accommodating all the surplus labors at the rural places into the new industrial sector, after that
it's impossible to withdrew any additional workers from the agricultural sector only at a cost is
higher than the cost of losing the production of food because the low percentage of employment
in the land means that the marginal production is no longer zero. This is
known as "Lewis turning point" Thus, the labor supply curve becomes positively slopped as
modern sector wages and employment continue to grow.
It's assumed to continue the process of the self-sustaining growth in the industrial sector until all
the labors in the agricultural sector is accommodating in the new industrial sector.
Once rural surplus labor is fully accommodating in the industrial sector, we can withdrew the
additional workers from the agricultural sector butt only at a higher cost of lost production in
the agricultural sector. This is because the MPLA is no longer zero. In this case, the labor
supply curve will not be horizontal, it will be positively slopped.
Criticism of the Lewis Model:
This model is very simple and reflects the historical experience of the West's economy and
growth. But even so, there are four keys to which the assumptions do not match the economic
and institutional realities of most contemporary developing countries…
 The first key: The Lewis model implies an implicit assumption that the rate of job
creation and transfer of workers is proportional to capital accumulation, and the faster
this accumulation, the more the growth rates of the modern sector increased and the rates
of creating new job opportunities. Indeed, instead of duplicating existing capital, capital
gains can be reinvested in more sophisticated capital equipment to provide employment.
Also, it can be sent abroad in a form such as
"capital flight" to add to the deposits of
Western banks
 With this graph, we see that despite the fact that the GDP has grown significantly, the
total employment and wages are still without any adjustments. And the total GDP has
accumulated on the capitalists in the form of profits.
Consequently, the level of income and employment remains largely unchanged, as
additional income and output growth are distributed among the few capital owners, and
this is an illustration of what is described by some as "anti-development" economic
growth.
 The second key: In the second assumption of the Lewis model, there is an idea that there
is full employment in urban areas. On the other hand, there is little surplus employment
in rural areas, and this is indicated by contemporary research, and today economic
development experts agree that Lewis' assumption of surplus rural workers in general is
not true.
 The third key: Here, Lewis' assumption is a competitive idea for the labor market in the
modern sector, as it guarantees the continuity of the existence of real civil wages that
reach the point where the supply of surplus labor in the rural areas is exhausted. Prior to
the 1980s, the apparent feature of civilized markets for work and wage determination in
all developing countries was the tendency for wages to rise over time, whether in terms of
relative value or absolute value of average rural incomes, even if there was an increase in
open unemployment in the modern sector and low productivity in agriculture.
Institutional factors such as union bargaining power, placement in multinational companies, and
civil service wages tend to nullify competitive strength in the modern sector in developing
countries.
 The fourth key: Assuming the assumption of diminishing returns in the modern
industrial sector. Also, there is a lot of evidence that increases in revenue prevailing in
this sector may pose specific problems for setting development policies.
 Theory of development patterns

The theory of development patterns is one that takes many forms from the evolution of
economic thinking within the framework of a theoretical philosophy of changes that constitute
connected processes that change the perception of the economy in developing countries, where
modern industrial thinking replaces the traditional sector
This does not accord with the lewis and rostow theories, which emphasize that savings and
investment play an important but insufficient role for the developmental phenomenon to take
place ، However, economic growth and development require a change in the economic structure
where it is known that it is the economy that determines how societies allocate underused
resources. It is the satisfaction of one's needs that leads to the satisfaction of oneself .And the
process of allocating resources is done within the operational framework of the economy
through the social structure, as this structure is not subject to formation or slow change, and this
is what leads to the formation of growth ، This theory is included in the cycles of early
economic theories and in the light of neoclassical economics, which trades education
throughout the world and modifies the appearance of certain institutions، It was the alterations
that affected the great English economist "Alfred Marshall "that brought him out in a book
entitled "natural non facit saltum "in 1890.
To walk in the context of increased state development and the path of development, ignoring
the past, which has been marked by a further low level of growth and progress, has no hand in
the correct distribution of the resources available in this framework ،Development is interested
in regime change and seeks to highlight a path of the best that leads to one that is independent
of the current distribution of resources.
Development requires many forms of institutions necessary for the process of dynamic
development. In contrast with economic theories, the state must make a strong leap forward,
without dependence on marginal adjustments, in order to push it towards an effective and
progressive economy in the future ،This development is being pursued by the developing
countries in their transition phase through international restrictions that make them different
from the industrialized countries. These countries seek to take advantage of the opportunities
created by the industrialized countries for sources of capital and technology as well as export
markets.
In the early years of their economic development, these developing countries can compete with
the industrialized countries for the faster shift, and this is recognized in the paradigm of
structural change, since the developing countries in part are the only integrated international
system that can threaten their development ، The pattern of change is a bathtub that relies on
experience and a host of its own, chenery and his colleagues during the postwar period, just like
Simon costis has done about the modern growth of developed countries through their
development experimentation, showing different levels of per capita income in different
countries and at different times, from helping the transition from agricultural to industrial
production ، This has led the state to change the demand of consumers from focusing on their
basic needs, such as food, desires and industrial services, which will lead to a smaller household
and lower population growth, as children lose their economic value and "education" valley
،This has been called by development experts who follow this path to having the wall speak for
itself instead of theoretical assumptions such as stage growth
Consequently, it is India's nature that makes Sulphur dioxide the possible consequences of
human well-being so difficult for humans to apply such theories although many resources are
available in India, but at its population growth stage it does weigh in from what is made by
thinking about such issues as "Robert e. Lucas Jr " ; This approach merely induces practitioners
to communicate wrong conclusions by means of restrictions, emptying patterns such as the low
share of the agricultural Labour force in developed countries
The policy-making industry has shown the important role that higher education plays in
structural change since they have devised and strategized the development of the public
university system, even if it is reserved in the individual's basic education. They appreciate the
fact that higher education is necessary in order to help implement this curriculum, leading to old
problems of equality as in Tanzania .The studies of the structural change process demonstrate
that it depends on domestic and international factors and that it often departs from the individual
charters of the developing countries. However, economists are able to demonstrate that man can
create these patterns that are necessary for the development process, Despite the optimism of
the analysts of this change, which represents the right mix of economic policies to create new
and useful forms of self-sufficiency, the recipient countries are less sanguine in that they are
characterized by general pessimism.

Conclusions
The devastation caused by the Second World War and the attempt of each country to solve its
economic problems, It has adapted to the theories that have emerged from schools in economics
at this time, Despite the different views of these schools, most countries benefited from them in
the process of economic growth, Like the theory of Rostow
who said that in order to move from underdevelopment to development, a series of steps and
stages must be followed by all countries, but this theory did not achieve the required economic
growth.
Hence the theory of Harrod and Doomar Who took care of
saving a percentage of the national income for growth and represented that in new investments,
but they did not achieve the required growth, because investment was not the main element of
growth and there are two other important elements in growth, which are the workforce and
technological progress. When obstacles and
restrictions appeared: That used the two theories and assumed that the most important economic
growth strategy is to increase savings, GDP rate will increase, but it has been used in cold wars
in developing countries.
And also the necessary conditions versus sufficient conditions: There are some criticisms of the
model of the stages in which the failure of the mechanisms of development for economic
growth, because it's not enough and The Rostow and Harrod- Domar models assume that the
underdevelopment countries have the same arrangements, but they have lacked in many cases.
We have studied the Lewis model because it is one of the models that relate to recent
experiences, for example, as happens in China on a large scale, where employment is excluded
from agriculture to industry and a few other countries that have similar patterns to those of
growth patterns. The conversion of Lewis to the starting point for wages in manufacturing was
identified more broadly as wages increased in China.
•The reason why these theories of national resource planning don't connect the world with
chenery and his cell to determine development patterns is his theory, which examines the
country at different times.
Because of the different forms of structural change, the basic principle agreed in all theories is
that it is a process of determinants of growth and change that shares these attributes with all
countries that seek to develop their economy.
Factors common to all theories that affect the economic development process are the
availability of resources, services, capital and technology.
 Reference

Books:
 “ Economic Development And Planning”
Dr. Rasha M.El-Akkad, Dr. Asmaa M.Hussein

 “The Stages of Economic Growth”

W.W.Rostow

 “The Process of Economic Development”

James M.Cypher & James L.Dietz

 “The Classical Theory of Economic Growth”

Walterb Eltis