Future Trends Impacting On Academic Library

New Review of Academic Librarianship
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Identifying and Exploring Future Trends Impacting

on Academic Libraries: A Mixed Methodology
Using Journal Content Analysis, Focus Groups, and
Trend Reports
Roisin Gwyer
To cite this article: Roisin Gwyer (2015) Identifying and Exploring Future Trends Impacting
on Academic Libraries: A Mixed Methodology Using Journal Content Analysis, Focus
Groups, and Trend Reports, New Review of Academic Librarianship, 21:3, 269-285, DOI:
10.1080/13614533.2015.1026452
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New Review of Academic Librarianship, 21:269–285, 2015
Published with license by Taylor & Francis
ISSN: 1361-4533 print / 1740-7834 online
DOI: 10.1080/13614533.2015.1026452
Identifying and Exploring Future Trends

Impacting on Academic Libraries: A Mixed
Methodology Using Journal Content Analysis,
Focus Groups, and Trend Reports
ROISIN GWYER
University Library, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth, UK
Downloaded by [180.171.74.226] at 03:44 07 March 2016
This article compares three sources of information about academic

libraries to consider what the future could hold and the skills needed
to deliver effective services within that future. The starting point is
the contents of New Review of Academic Librarianship (formerly
British Journal of Academic Librarianship) from 1986, which are
examined thematically and used to conduct focus groups with aca-
demic librarians from those in first posts to international library
leaders. Recent major trend spotting reports and articles are also
examined and compared. Thus, a retrospective analysis of pub-
lished literature plus the current concerns of working librarians
and future trend spotting reports are brought together to see whether
any trends for the future emerge. The skills needed to develop rele-
vant services in these new contexts are identified and there is some
consideration of how new roles could affect existing library teams.
Gaps in the journal coverage and areas for possible future articles
are identified.
KEYWORDS collaboration, library staff development, roles, uni-

versity libraries, strategy
INTRODUCTION
What is academic librarianship when it is no longer characterized by the

traditional practices of cataloguing, acquisitions, content management
and committee attendance? (Mackenzie and Martin 2014, xv).
© Roisin Gwyer
Address correspondence to Roisin Gwyer, University Library, University of Portsmouth,
Cambridge Road, Portsmouth, Hampshire, PO1 2ST, UK. E-mail: roisin.gwyer@port.ac.uk
269
270 R. Gwyer
One does not have to look far in the professional literature or among
delegates at conferences to find similar questions being asked and uncer-
tain futures being predicted. As a profession, librarians spend a lot of time
discussing their own demise; yet, here we still are working, writing, and at-
tending conferences (and committees). On the one hand, we look back and
see how things have changed; on the other hand, we try to read the runes
and future-proof our services. Examining the contents of one mainstream
journal aimed at academic librarians (New Review of Academic Librarian-
ship [NRAL] that grew from the British Journal of Academic Librarianship
[BJAL], which was first published in 1986) to see what had been written
over the last twenty-eight years and comparing this with focus groups and
with recent major future trends reports seemed like a good way to obtain
some idea of whether there is a future; whether the future really is a de-
parture from everything that has gone before, as some authors seem to be
predicting; or whether it is more of a development from the activities of the

past.
The trends reports used were a selection of high-profile and well-
regarded reports that were hitting the headlines at the time of writing.
The NMC Horizon reports are well established annual publications iden-
tifying and describing emerging technologies likely to impact Higher
Education over the next five years. Trends are agreed by an expert
panel from a range of countries across the globe. Both the Library and
the Higher Education reports were considered (Johnson, Adams Becker,
Estrada, and Freeman 2014a, 2014b). Another international organization,
the International Federation of Library Associations (IFLA), published a
trend report in 2013, entitled “Riding the Waves or Caught in the Tide,”
which was the result of a year-long consultation with stakeholders and
experts across the globe to arrive at five high-level trends (IFLA 2013).
Two US-based reports were also considered. The Research Planning and
Review Committee of the Association of College and Research Libraries
publishes a “Top Trends in Academic Libraries” report every two years
on behalf of the American Library Association. The 2014 report is focused
around a unifying theme of deeper collaboration (ACRL 2014). Ithaka
S+R (a not-for-profit organization that also produces JSTOR and Portico)
surveyed academic library leaders to find out how they are approaching
changes in their environment and the opportunities and constraints they
face (Long and Schonfield 2013). Finally, three UK-based articles from
NRAL were also used to identify trends. Two articles by Derek Law, which
are five years apart (2009, 2014) explore the changes faced by academic
libraries and the skills needed for survival, whereas Geraldine Delaney and
Jessica Bates (2014) focus on current and near future trends in academic
libraries.
Future Trends Impacting on Academic Libraries 271
TABLE 1 Number of articles published by subject
Articles published by subject 1986–2014

Digital information (73 articles)
Management practice (72)
Collaboration (intra- and inter-library) (51)
Evaluation of services (48)
National policy (45)
Information/digital literacy (38)
Scholarly communications (37)
Stock management (34)
Research support (30)
Future trends (27)
Finance (27)
Student experience & engagement (25)
Education and training of LIS staff (16)
HR issues (including staffing structures) (16)
Space (14)
Change management (14)
Resource discovery (9)

Marketing (6)
Remote access (4)
Social media (3)
Other (20)
METHODOLOGY
Journal Content Analysis
The starting point was the contents of the New Review of Academic Li-
brarianship from its beginning in 1995 until mid-2014. This was then ex-
tended to cover the contents of The British Journal of Academic Librari-
anship (its former title) from the first issue of Spring, 1986. NRAL has a
twenty-eight year history and has seen growth over the last three to five
years both in journal size and readership. It began as a UK-based journal but
has become increasingly international both in content and Editorial Board
membership.
Article titles and editorials were scanned manually to identify broad
subject headings (Table 1). A closer analysis of article titles was then car-
ried out and each article was assigned as many subject headings as ap-
propriate (with an “other” heading for the few that did not fit into one
of the subject categories), thus identifying the most popular topics with
authors.
A limited range of metrics were available from the publisher and these
were considered; it was decided that the subjects with the highest number
of downloads would indicate the most popular topics with readers.
272 R. Gwyer
TABLE 2 Focus groups
Length of experience Focus group question
Group A Under 5 years What are the top 5 issues the

profession is currently dealing with?
Group B 5–10 years What are the top 5 issues the
profession is currently dealing with
and how have these changed (over
your career)?
Group C Over 15 years What are the top 5 issues over your
career?
Group D Senior practitioners and researchers, What are the top 5 issues over your
over 15 years of experience career? Identify the major gaps in
coverage within NRAL
Focus Groups
The journal content analysis was used as a basis for the focus groups which
consisted of librarians with a range of years of experience, each group was
asked to consider a question related to their length of experience (Table 2).
Focus group membership totaled 39 people and there were no 10-15 year
librarians present in any group.
Once groups had identified their top five issues, they were shown the
outcomes of the content analysis and selected metrics and asked to comment.
Trends Reports
Trends reports were read and considered against the results of the journal
content analysis and the focus group outputs to look for similarities, differ-
ences, and/or trends.
RESULTS
Journal Content Analysis
Content analysis yielded a list of twenty-one broad subjects (Table 1) covered
over the twenty-eight years of publication.
Metrics were also gleaned from the publisher website to show number
of downloads in 2013–14 (which was the most recent full year available)
(Table 3).
With the proviso that we are comparing different things here—published
articles against downloads—we can see that evaluation of services and in-
formation/digital literacy as topics would seem to be of continuing interest,
while the 2013-14 downloads list shows a marked increase in interest in
TABLE 3 Subjects with >100 downloads in 2013/14
Subjects with 100+ downloads in 2013-14

Scholarly communication (1600 downloads)
Student experience and engagement
Change management
Evaluation of services
Information literacy/digital literacy (IL/DL)
Space
Education and training of LIS staff
Other
Research support
Marketing
Digital information
Stock management (c. 150 downloads)
student experience and engagement, space, and change management. The

ten most downloaded individual articles in 2013 are shown in Table 4.
Subjects that appear to have fallen out of favor include management
practice (although change management as a topic is high on the list of
downloads in 2013-14) and collaboration.
Focus Groups
The journal content analysis was used to format discussions at the focus
groups. Table 5 shows the top concerns across all focus group members by
length of time in career. The “younger” groups (Groups A and B) identified
current concerns as they did not have a historical perspective, whereas the
“older” group (Groups C and D) took a longer view of concerns over their
careers. There were many more librarians with more than 15 years’ experi-
ence; therefore, more topics were identified and all are included in Table 5.
In addition Group D was asked to identify gaps in NRAL content.
The topics of immediate and continuing concern are information literacy
and the digital environment (reading list management has been included here
as the feedback from the group was mainly around electronic reading lists).
CPD for LIS staff and copyright/legal issues are also identified as topics of
concern.
It is interesting to see the correspondences between Group A and
Groups C and D; all topics identified by Group A were also identified by
Groups C and D. However, these topics were, apart from social media, the
top concerns across all groups. The close correspondence between Groups
A, C, and D could make Group B look out of kilter; however, Group B
identified two topics, space and research support, which were also seen as
gaps in the journal contents by Group D (i.e., they were topics which the
senior practitioners and researchers would have expected to see reflected
274 R. Gwyer
TABLE 4 Titles of the 10 most downloaded articles in 2013–14
Article Title Vol. (Issue) - Year Total Downloads
Student Journey Work: A Review of Academic 19 (2) 2013 882

Library Contributions to Student Transitions and
Success
Margaret Weaver
A Study Exploring Learners’ Informal Learning 19 (1) 2013 371
Space Behaviors, Attitudes, and Preferences
Deborah Harrop, Bea Turpin
Roles of the Librarian in a Research Library in the 19 (1) 2013 349
Digital Era: Challenges and the Way Forward
Titilayo Comfort Ilesanmi
Massive open Online Courses (MOOCs) and Their 20 (1) 2014 315
Impact on Academic Library Services: Exploring
the Issues and Challenges
Hannah Gore
Scholarly Communication: A Long View 16 (sup.1) 287
Michael A. Mabe 2010

The Information and Learning Commons: Some 17 (1) 2011 251
Reflections
Elizabeth K. Heitsch, Robert P. Holley
Re-Skilling for Research: Investigating the Needs of 18 (1) 2012 248
Researchers and How Library Staff Can Best
Support Them
Antony Brewerton
Use and Perception of Ebooks in the University of 18 (2) 2012 247
Ulster: A Case Study
Sarah Smyth, Andrew P. Carlin
The Academic Librarian: Buying Into, Playing Out, 19 (1) 2013 239
and Resisting the Teacher Role in Higher
Education
Trevor Austin, Janine Bhandol
Authors’ Awareness and Attitudes Toward Open 16 (sup. 1) 2010 235
Access Repositories
Claire Creaser, Jenny Fry, Helen Greenwood,
Charles Oppenheim, Steve Probets, Valerie Spezi,
Sonya White
in the contents and were surprised to find little published on them). The
slightly more focused topics of Group B, including reading lists and accessi-
bility of (electronic) resources, may reflect individual and more specialized
job roles that could be seen as likely for those with more experience than
Group A.
Groups C and D picked out some of the same themes but added a dif-
ferent perspective; therefore, IL was seen with a wider lens of pedagogical
developments including not just how and what we teach students but also
how we provide physical and virtual spaces to do this. Similarly, research
support was identified by Group B while Group D picked out specific as-
pects of research such as data sharing and altmetrics as a gap. Groups C
and D, which could be expected to include more senior managers, were
TABLE 5 Top topics identified by focus groups and gap analysis
Group B Groups C and D Group D – journal

Group A 0–5 years 5–10 years 15+ years gap analysis
Social media Social media Social media

Print v electronic Reading list Digital environment
management
IL IL Pedagogical
developments (incl
IL and DL)
CPD CPD
Copyright/legal Copyright/legal
Research support Data sharing/text
mining/altmetrics
Space Space (including
ethnographic
approaches)
Accessibility of
resources
Economic environment Value and impact
(funding of and studies
access to HE,
proving value of
libraries)
Open Access
Employability of
students
Renegotiating role of
library
Strategic views of
organizational cul-
ture/performance
review/planning
and mission
concerned with some wider issues reflecting sectoral and organizational

(not just library) issues; these include the employability of students and
the changing economic environment arising from the introduction of fees
for students. The economic environment also affects access to HE and a
more consumer-type relationship leads to a greater requirement to prove the
value of libraries (phrases such as “return on investment” were used). This
perhaps contributes to the need to renegotiate the role of the Library within
the institution as this is clearly seen by Groups C and D as a current concern.
The gap analysis pointed out topics that Group D felt were mainstream
enough to have been included in the journal contents but which were found
to be absent. A couple of these, space and social media, were identified as
current concerns for Groups A and B. As well as space in general, Group
D was particularly interested in ethnographic approaches to planning and
using space. The theme of proving worth was reflected in the gap analysis
as a lack of value and impact studies was identified.
276 R. Gwyer
When comparing the focus groups and the journal contents analysis,
the NRAL/BJAL contents 1986-2014 show little consistency with the focus
groups in that only digital information is included in the top five (Table 2).
Two popular topics written about over time, management practice, and col-
laboration were not mentioned by any focus group members specifically
although Group D saw a gap in this area particularly around strategic views
of organizational culture, performance review, and planning and mission A
surprise topic was national policy initiatives, but on examination this reflects
a large number of articles at certain points in time rather than an ongoing
trend. The downloaded articles for the most recent year (2013-14) cover
three topics that have been of continuing interest over time: management
(change management in particular), service evaluation, and IL. New topics
reflect current concerns in the sector, that is, the changing nature of scholarly
communications and the emphasis on student experience and engagement.
DISCUSSION: THE TRENDS IDENTIFIED
By mapping these various sources of evidence, a retrospective analysis of

published literature plus the current concerns of working librarians and fu-
ture trend spotting reports, it was possible to identify three major trends:
the changing higher education environment (possibly leading to a different
role for the library); technological developments; and the changing nature
of scholarly communication. Three minor trends can also be seen: changing
user behavior; legal issues around ownership of information; and changes
to physical space.
Trend 1: Changing Higher Education Environment

Unsurprisingly, trends concerning the wider HE environment were expressed
by Groups C and D but not by those at earlier stages of their careers.
These centered on issues of access to education, the current emphasis on
employability, and issues of funding and student fees.
Delivering education in a fees-based environment has put increased
emphasis on the student experience and engagement. This topic was one
of the top 5 downloaded areas from NRAL in 2013–14. A more volatile
higher education market means that librarians could be competing for funds
within the institution more than previously; therefore, proving the value of
the library to the organization is more important than ever before. This is
echoed by the ACRL trend report (ACRL 2014) that identifies student success
and demonstrating value as a top trend. Evaluating services is a perennially
popular topic for librarians, being one of the top 5 topics written about
within NRAL/BJAL from 1986 onward, and also one of the top 5 downloaded
topics from NRAL in 2013-14. Group D saw this as something that has been
important across their careers, but in its more recent manifestation of proving
value or return on investment this was seen as a gap within the journal.
The other area of change within higher education is around pedagogy
which has moved from a print-based and largely individual model to a collab-
orative and electronic model (on campus) and an online model (for distance
learning) and was felt by Groups C and D to be one of the areas of enduring
change across their careers; this was also one of the top 5 downloaded topics
from NRAL in 2013-14. The Horizon Report on HE (Johnson et al. 2014a)
envisages the integration of online, hybrid, and collaborative learning. This
gives rise to a need to embed librarians into the curriculum (Johnson et al.
2014b). However, worryingly, the Ithaka survey (Long and Schonfield 2013)
reports a substantial number of library directors feeling that their services are
not fully prepared to support online courses.
Information literacy, and more recently digital literacy, has been seen as
the preserve of the academic librarian for some time. However, the Ithaka
survey (Long and Schonfield 2013) suggests that academics do not always see
this as a library responsibility, which is worrying when the Horizon report
into HE (2014) reports the low digital fluency of faculty. Groups A, B, and
C all saw this as a top priority, as did ACRL (2013), echoing the IFLA (2013)
prediction that new technologies will expand, excluding those who are not
information and digitally literate. The Ithaka survey (Long and Schonfield
2013) noted a tension in research intensive institutions between putting staff
resources into undergraduate IL and focusing on research support.
Trend 2: Technological Developments

A recent OCLC report (2014) found that the book is still firmly the library
brand:
The more that the digital information landscape expands with alternatives
to physical materials, the more solidified the library brand becomes as
“books.”
However, for academic librarians it is the rise of the digital over their
careers and into the future that is still a significant trend. Looking backward,
Groups C and D saw technology as a major trend over their careers, this is
supported by the fact that digital matters was one of the top five published
topics within NRAL/BJAL from 1986 to the present. Even Group A saw print
versus electronic as a major trend. Historically, this trend has been about
providing, managing, and purchasing digital content.
Looking forward, the IFLA Trend Report (IFLA 2013) sees the global
information economy being transformed by new technologies. With a ma-
278 R. Gwyer
jority of content now available in digital form, current concerns are about
maximizing access to content and marketing it. Two specific areas of techno-
logical development were mentioned, the first being “the growing ubiquity
of social media” (Johnson et al. 2014a, 8), which was also identified as a
current concern by Group A, although Group D identified this as a gap
in the NRAL contents. The other is the preference for mobile technology
(including wearable devices) leading to the need to provide device neutral
responsively-designed content. MOOCs were mentioned by the ACRL report
(2014) and IFLA sees online education as a democratizing force that will
disrupt global learning, with the worry that this could result in the loss of
the tactile and local.
Trend 3: Changing Nature of Scholarly Communication

Academic librarians across the globe are currently seeing the nature of schol-
arly communication change, indeed IFLA (2013) sees the traditional informa-
tion chain as being broken. This is largely driven by the rise of open access
to research outputs, which the Horizon report (Johnson et al. 2014b) sees as
a trend that will have maximum impact on academic and research libraries
over the next three to five years. The uncertainty about how the trend for
more openness around the products of publically funded research will affect
publishing and the role of libraries is reflected in the fact that almost all
the sources identified this trend, including the futures reports (ACRL 2014;
Johnson et al. 2014b) and the focus groups and this is also reflected in the
downloads from the NRAL during 2013-14 where this was one of the top
five downloaded subject areas; only Group A did not identify this. Increas-
ing openness of research data is a strong sub-theme, also identified by the
futures reports (ACRL 2014; Johnson et al. 2014b) and Group D. Other ar-
eas identified under this theme are the role of social media within research,
including crowd funding and altmetrics, and digital humanities.
Many of the skills needed for research support in an open environment
are not within the traditional skill set of the academic librarian. The Horizon
report (Johnson et al. 2014b) sees libraries as:
. . . moving from information discovery and management, collection de-

velopment and literacy training to curation, preservation, scholarly com-
munication and dissemination (22).
Although these are familiar activities in a paper-based environment, they

are more complex in a digital environment. Digital preservation is identified
by other trend reports (Long and Schonfield 2013; IFLA 2013; Law 2014) as
a pressing need. Tensions exist over copyright restrictions, format obsoles-
cence, and the lack of technical capacity available. In addition, libraries in
the less research intensive universities can find it difficult to get managers
to recognize this as an area requiring specialist staff and skill development.
Similarly, research data management, generally, and text/data mining and alt-
metrics, specifically, are identified as skills gaps by the ACRL librarians and
Group D reflecting the concerns of those currently leading academic libraries.
Trend 4: Changing User Behavior

Three sub-trends are included in this heading: consumerism, ICT, and search
approaches. Groups C and D felt a more consumerist approach from students
was a major concern, echoing the high priority given to the aforementioned
student experience. There is hope, however, as the Horizon report (Johnson
et al. 2014b) envisages a development from students as consumers to stu-

dents as creators (or co-creators). Allied to the aforementioned technological
development strand is the changing behavior of students in their use of tech-
nology. Only a minority of the Ithaka librarians (Long and Schonfield 2013)
felt they had a well-developed strategy for meeting the changing needs of
their users, including technology needs. The “Googlization” of search, while
making librarians more concerned about the importance of information lit-
eracy, also means that “search happens elsewhere” leaving the library on
the margins, and this includes researchers as outlined in the CIBER report
on researchers of the future (CIBER 2007-08). As the IFLA report (2013) asks
“the algorithm has all the answers – so what’s a library?” Law (2009) sees an
as-yet unclear role for libraries as a trusted (and enduring) brand in a more
volatile digital world, providing what he calls “trust metrics.”
Trend 5: Legal/Statutory Issues (Copyright, Intellectual Property, and

Data Protection)
The web and social networking have changed perceptions of information
ownership, as identified by IFLA (2013), which also predicts that the bound-
aries of privacy and data protection will be redefined. As the legal require-
ments are redefined to take better cognizance of the online world then
librarians need to keep their services within legal boundaries and be pre-
pared to advise users on this subject. This was seen as a major concern for
Group A and also Groups C and D. Regarding “legal” in a more informal
and broader sense there is also an opportunity identified by some (e.g., Law
2014) for the library to take on an information management role for the
institution.
280 R. Gwyer
Trend 6: Changes to Physical Space

As electronic access increases, the possibility of releasing space formerly
used to house print materials opens up. Law (2014) sees working space
as more important than storage space, whilst the Ithaka survey (Long and
Schonfield 2013) sees the provision of undergraduate space as a core service
of widespread importance to those who responded. Johnson et al. (2014b)
see a trend for space to be dedicated to creation as a development of working
space, as in the makerspace idea. Of the focus groups, only Group B saw
space as a top issue for them. There is undoubtedly much activity in building
new libraries across the globe and also in refurbishing older buildings to fit
with the technological and pedagogical trends previously outlined; however,
this is not reflected in the contents of NRAL where Group D identified a gap
in coverage in this topic area. A recent book on library space (Watson 2013)
sees a huge gap in the systematic evaluation of learning spaces, particular
informal learning spaces:
What is needed is a rich descriptive approach to evaluation that captures

the effects of excellent informal learning space and shows that better
space enables better learning (271).
Trend 7: Collaboration: The Continuing Trend

As well as the aforementioned six trends, there is one “meta-trend”: collabo-
ration and new convergences. Librarians have always worked collaboratively
(this topic is one of the top five published topics in NRAL/BJAL since 1986
and is the unifying theme for the ACRL trend report of 2014), this has been
one of our great strengths. Collaborative ventures continue as technology
makes the world smaller, for example, the UK SCONUL Conference in sum-
mer 2014 heard two presentations under the theme of “The Borderless Li-
brary: New Approaches to Collaborative Collection Development” (SCONUL
2014). However, more competitive higher education systems with increased
competition for students and research funding could create some tensions,
although both Law (2014) and ACRL (2014) see deeper collaboration and
community building as significant trends.
External collaborations identified by the trends reports cluster around
working together to increase access to digital resources, as happened with
print (Law 2009; Johnson et al. 2014b). The importance of international re-
search collaborations underpins a number of trends in the Horizon report
(Johnson et al. 2014b), which identifies the importance of working together
internationally to make research outputs available, including working with
publishers on new funding models, finding better authentication methods
and also in the areas of linked data and the semantic web. A “wicked chal-
lenge” will be “maintaining ongoing integration, interoperability and collabo-
rative projects in a constantly evolving landscape.” This could be happening

in an environment where differences across types of institution are growing
(Long and Schofield 2013).
Internal collaborations (within the institution) have been a feature of the
UK HE library scene for some time now (Bulpitt 2012) bringing with them
a need for enhanced skill sets in areas such as negotiation. In 2009 Law
declared, from a UK perspective, that “it is no longer clear what business
libraries are in and where they should now interface with other parts of the
organisations they serve.” In the United States, Ithaka (Long and Schonfield
2013, 54) saw “ample evidence across institutional types of the importance
of collaborative approaches to service users’ information needs”; whereas,
Horizon (Johnson et al. 2014b) talk of “superliasons” through staff assisting
a variety of departments through the development of specialized skill sets,
suggesting that the subject discipline is becoming less important than special-
ized skills such as digital research and text mining. This is within a context
of increased multi-disciplinary research. It is interesting that collaboration
as a topic has been written about within the journal historically, but recent
downloads show a drop in popularity for this topic. However, a number of
the articles listed in Table 4 suggest collaboration within the institution.
The trends identified indicate some possible new roles for the library,
and certainly new skill sets for staff, although which skills are developed
in-house and which are recruited in is another discussion. There seems to
be concern from all levels of staff about this; the Ithaka survey (Long and
Schonfield 2013) identified that many (U.S.) library directors are concerned
about limited staff capacity and skills while Groups A, C, and D identified
CPD as a major concern. Underpinning all this is the management and lead-
ership of libraries, which has been one of the top five published topics
within NRAL/BJAL since 1986. Change management was one of the top five
downloaded topics from NRAL in 2013-14 reflecting the Horizon (Johnson
et al. 2014b, 28) report, which says that library leaders need to embrace “the
need for radical change.” Table 6 lists the skills or areas of development
mentioned in the various sources.
CONCLUSION
The impetus for this article came in part from a desire to see how the past, as
represented by the contents of the BJAL and NRAL over twenty-eight years,
points to the future, as represented by the trends reports, with the personal
view of working librarians as a “reality check” of sorts. Although the iconic
brand of libraries is the book, silence and the printed word we actually
work in a rapidly changing environment and have adapted our services to
embrace digital information, new pedagogic practice, the expectations of
digital native students, and the changes in scholarly communications arising
282 R. Gwyer
TABLE 6 Skills identified by trend
Trends Areas for Skill Development
1. Changing higher education Impact assessment

environment Return on investment
Value studies
Change management
Community building
Multi-professional working
Influencing and negotiation
Creativity and innovation
Globalization
MOOCs
Openness (in research and learning & teaching)
2. Technological developments Wearable technology
Semantic web
Linked data
Horizon scanning
Tracking user activity/data analytics

3. Changing nature of scholarly Digital research
communication Text/data mining
Dissemination of research
Interdisciplinary research
Research data management
Digital humanities
altmetrics
Bibliometrics
Citation technologies
Digital preservation and curation
Social media in research
E-publishing
4. Changing user behavior Digital literacy
Marketing
Communication, including social media
Customer service
Student experience and engagement
Eliciting feedback and consultation
Networking
5. “Legal” issues Copyright
Intellectual property
Data protection
Privacy issues
Information governance
Information security
Data standards
6. Changes to physical space Ethnographic research methods
User involvement
7. Collaboration Networking
Influencing and negotiation
Community building
Cross-sector working
International working
Interoperability
from both technological change and the desire for more openness. It could
be argued that, based on the amount of library building taking place across
the academic sector in a number of countries, concerns regarding the per-
ceived relevance of academic libraries in an online world have proven to be
unfounded.
Few of the future trends identified are totally new but rather are de-
velopments of existing services, such as support for online learning, or the
translation of existing skills into a digital environment, for example digital
preservation. There is some evidence that the things libraries have been tra-
ditionally valued for, such as silent space, may be re-asserting themselves.
In a noisy world, libraries are often the only places on campus where a
student or member of staff can find silence, and student demands for silent
spaces are increasing. A recent blogpost by Linton Weeks (2014) tells of the
New York Public Library rediscovering a box of enquiries from the 1940-80s,
which they aim to put on their Instagram account and quotes a member of
staff saying they receive about 1,700 reference questions a month via chat,
e-mail, and phone “including tougher questions that people can’t answer
—even with the Internet.” The IFLA report (2013) concern regarding the loss
of the “tactile and local” could be prescient.
Two things are fascinating to see: first, while technology moves into
ever more exciting areas (e.g., wearable technology), it is the organization
and preservation skills that are reasserting their value; and second, students
are voting with their feet by visiting libraries in increasing numbers, valu-
ing the bookish space even at a time of increasing digital resources. There
is something powerful for students regarding working in a space along
with others all bent on academic endeavor. Librarians will need to nego-
tiate a path between keeping what is “enduring” and iconic (Gorman 2003)
while helping organizations deal with, and make the most of, their digital
information.
The long history of collaborative work between libraries continues, al-
though the digital world allows networks to be much bigger and to spread
over wider geographical areas. Digital networks are also being used to pre-
serve traditional print artefacts, it is unlikely that an undertaking such as
the UK Research Reserve would have happened without digital networks
(UKRR seeks to manage the long-term sustainability of retaining low-use
print journals). Within institutions, the trends reports seem to be encourag-
ing a more embedded approach with librarians as members of research and
teaching teams. However, the more embedded and seamless we become,
both of staff and digital resources, the more important effective branding and
marketing are if “embedded” is not to mean “lost.”
Having said that the trends point to a development of existing services,
they do also point to a new set of skills (particularly in the areas of digital
preservation and support for digital research) that are in short supply (Ta-
ble 6). Where and how we get these skills is a matter of concern as they are
284 R. Gwyer
not often within our current skills sets. Many are specialist (such as research
data management, altmetrics) and we need to decide whether we can de-
velop and refocus existing staff or whether we need to recruit from other
disciplines. Developing existing staff depends on the right development op-
portunities being available. Recruiting from other disciplines (either through
adding to the establishment or buying in on a consultancy basis) adds to a
growing trend of bringing in non-librarians to the team (examples include
web developers, staff developers, staff with customer care skills gained in
a retail background, statisticians). What are the values and identities which
hold these more disparate teams together? One worrying outcome of the
focus groups of newer librarians (Groups A and B) was a strong feeling that
they needed to continue developing their skills but they felt that the oppor-
tunities to do so, both in terms of time and money available, were fewer.
Traditionally, management practice has been a fruitful publication area for
NRAL/BJAL although more recently there has been a falling off of articles
on this topic (as identified by Group D), it could be that these questions of
what is a library team and how we build teams with new skills will lead to
more interest in future.
Although there is evidence of investment in academic libraries the need
to prove value and worth to the organization continues. The use of robust
evidence is more important than ever as is the use of research methods,
which again are not always in our traditional skill set. Mentioned in particular
were ethnographic studies on space use and value and impact studies. If the
new librarians feel they do not have time for CPD, more senior staff may feel
they do not have time, resources, or skills within their workforce to carry
out this type of research.
Finally, a recent reflection on the academic library sums up these points
well:
Ideally, they will need to create a future that builds on traditional values,
services, and skills of librarianship while increasing the “added value”
they make to universities, staff and students (Delaney and Bates 2014,
14).
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
With thanks to Aalia Oosman (Taylor and Francis) and Graham Walton
(NRAL) for their contributions. Also thank you everyone who attended our
session at the Academic and Research Libraries Group (ARLG) Annual Con-
ference in Brighton, UK in June 2014.
REFERENCES
ACRL Research Planning and Review Committee. “Top Trends in Academic Libraries:
A Review of the Trends and Issues Affecting Academic Libraries in Higher
Education.” College & Research Libraries News 75.6 (2014): 294–302. Web. 05
Nov. 2014. <http://crln.acrl.org/content/75/6/294.full>.
Bulpitt, Graham. Leading the Student Experience: Superconvergence of Organisation,
Structure and Business Processes. London: Leadership Foundation for Higher
Education. (2012). Web. 03 Oct. 2014. <http://www.lfhe.ac.uk/en/research-
resources/publications/index.cfm/S3%20-%2005>.
CIBER. Information Behaviour of the Researcher of the Future. London: A British
Library/JISC study, 2007–08. Web. 03 Oct. 2014. <http://www.jisc.ac.uk/
media/documents/programmes/reppres/gg_final_keynote_11012008.pdf >.
Delaney, Geraldine, and Jessica Bates. “Envisioning the Academic Library: A Reflec-
tion on Roles, Relevancy and Relationships.” New Review of Academic Librari-
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Gorman, Michael. The Enduring Library: Technology, Tradition and the Quest for
Balance. Chicago: ALA, 2003. Print.
IFLA. “Riding the Waves or Caught in the Tide? Navigating the evolving information
environment: insights from the Trend Report.” (2013). Web. 23 Sept. 2014.
<http://trends.ifla.org/insights-document>.
Johnson, Laurence, Samantha Adams Becker, Victoria Estrada, and Alex Freeman.
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its-here-horizon-report-2014-higher-education-edition>.
Johnson, Laurence, Samantha Adams Becker, Victoria Estrada, and Alex Freeman.
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sortium, 2014b. Web. 23 Sept. 2014. <http://cdn.nmc.org/media/2014-nmc-
horizon-report-library-EN.pdf>.
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1080/13614530903069307. Print.
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ISSN: 1361-4533 (Print) 1740-7834 (Online) Journal homepage: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/racl20

Identifying and Exploring Future Trends Impacting

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Identifying and Exploring Future Trends

This article compares three sources of information about academic

KEYWORDS collaboration, library staff development, roles, uni-

What is academic librarianship when it is no longer characterized by the

predicting; or whether it is more of a development from the activities of the

TABLE 1 Number of articles published by subject

Articles published by subject 1986–2014

Resource discovery (9)

TABLE 2 Focus groups

Length of experience Focus group question

Group A Under 5 years What are the top 5 issues the

TABLE 3 Subjects with >100 downloads in 2013/14

Subjects with 100+ downloads in 2013-14

student experience and engagement, space, and change management. The

TABLE 4 Titles of the 10 most downloaded articles in 2013–14

Article Title Vol. (Issue) - Year Total Downloads

Student Journey Work: A Review of Academic 19 (2) 2013 882

Michael A. Mabe 2010

TABLE 5 Top topics identified by focus groups and gap analysis

Group B Groups C and D Group D – journal

Social media Social media Social media

concerned with some wider issues reflecting sectoral and organizational

DISCUSSION: THE TRENDS IDENTIFIED

By mapping these various sources of evidence, a retrospective analysis of

Trend 1: Changing Higher Education Environment

Trend 2: Technological Developments

Trend 3: Changing Nature of Scholarly Communication

. . . moving from information discovery and management, collection de-

Although these are familiar activities in a paper-based environment, they

Trend 4: Changing User Behavior

et al. 2014b) envisages a development from students as consumers to stu-

Trend 5: Legal/Statutory Issues (Copyright, Intellectual Property, and

Trend 6: Changes to Physical Space

informal learning spaces:

What is needed is a rich descriptive approach to evaluation that captures

Trend 7: Collaboration: The Continuing Trend

rative projects in a constantly evolving landscape.” This could be happening

TABLE 6 Skills identified by trend

Trends Areas for Skill Development

1. Changing higher education Impact assessment

Tracking user activity/data analytics

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