Field Investigation Final Draft, Due 13 December 2023

By Caio de Oliveira Souza

Prof. Neil Schaefer
The Orange County Transit Vision Master Plan

(A) Introduction

(A1) The Proposal

The Orange County Transit Vision Master Plan1 (OC Transit Vision, OCTV), is a

visionary 30-year plan aimed to revolutionize transportation services in Orange County, which is

built upon a previous OCTV introduced in March 2018. The proposal was submitted on

12/22/2022 to the Orange County Transportation Authority and awaits the decision of the board,2

composed of diverse representatives, including city and county members, emphasizing

community input through an OCTA-conducted online survey.

(A2) Context and Historical Background

Orange County (OC) is located on the southern coast of California and is bordered by

Los Angeles County to the North and San Diego County to the South. The county was founded

on March 11, 1889 and is made up of 34 cities, including Irvine, Newport Beach, Costa Mesa,

Laguna Beach, and more. Orange County saw its largest immigration period post World War II

when it became a pillar for technological development in the Western side of the United States.

Nowadays, OC is the sixth most populated county in the whole nation and the third most

populated in California, only behind its Northern and Southern neighbors respectively.3 I spent

four years living in Irvine, Orange County, where I went to high school and where my family

currently still resides. I have a younger brother who went to elementary school, middle school,

and is now going to high school next year in Irvine as well. As my mother had to drop off my

1 https://www.octa.net/programs-projects/programs/plans-and-studies/a-transit-master-plan-for-orange-
county/
2 https://calcog.org/orange-county-transportation-authority-octa/
3 https://www.statista.com/statistics/241702/largest-counties-in-the-us/
younger brother at his school and get to her work early in the morning, I had to find my own way

to get around town and go to my high school. I ended up biking most of the time to class as I did

not have a car and my school did not offer a bus service, therefore I first handedly had the

experience of having to relocate myself throughout my city without a motorized vehicle. The

Orange County Transit Vision comes as a possible way to improve this issue for future

individuals in a similar situation where I was.

(A3) Other Key Elements of the Proposal

On November 2nd, 2023, the Orange County Transit Authority held an one-hour-long

“webinar” (an online seminar), where they went over some of the main points of the Orange

County Transit Vision plan and explained how they are making a research project before the start

of the construction of the OCTV. In the webinar there were two main speakers: Charles Main,

who is the Project Manager of the Orange County Transit Vision Master Plan, and Marissa

Espino, who is the Public Outreach Section Manager. According to them, some of the key

elements the project, if executed, will focus on will be:

1. Fixed-route Bus

The Orange County Transit Authority webinar highlighted their commitment to enhancing

transportation through a robust fixed-route bus system, ensuring reliable and widespread

connectivity for commuters across the county.

2. Streetcar

Charles Main underscored the significance of integrating a streetcar system into the Orange

County Transit Vision plan, emphasizing its role in providing efficient urban transportation and

reducing traffic congestion in key areas.

3. Microtransit
Marissa Espino emphasized the innovative approach of incorporating microtransit solutions,

offering flexible and on-demand services to address specific transit needs and enhance

accessibility for diverse communities.

4. First/Last Mile: bike, ped, micromobility, mobility hubs

The webinar detailed the comprehensive first/last mile strategies, advocating for biking,

pedestrian-friendly pathways, micro mobility options, and strategically placed mobility hubs to

facilitate seamless connectivity and ease of transit transfers for commuters.

(B) Arguments made for the Proposal

(B1) Orange County would become a more pleasant area to live.

The proposed Orange County Transit Vision has generated considerable discussion

regarding its potential benefits for residents and the environment. One of the primary arguments

in favor of this initiative is the prospect of transforming Orange County into a more convenient

and accessible area for its inhabitants. By expanding public transportation options, individuals

across the county could experience improved mobility, facilitating easier travel from one

location to another.

(B2) It is a long-term investment for Orange County.

If completed, this project will last a very long time. Future generations will be able to

also take advantage of it, and in the long run this will have an amazing impact on the

environment as it would prevent many unnecessary car rides. According to Chapman

University’s Orange County Annual Survey from 2019, which focused on transportation in

Orange County, “Eighty-seven percent (87%) [of survey participants] shared that they drive a car

nearly every day”4. As our society continues to progress towards a greener future and newer

generations seem to care more about the environment than ever before nowadays. Efforts can be

4 https://www.chapman.edu/wilkinson/_files/ocsurvey-pages.pdf
seen through the works of young environmentalists such as Greta Thunberg, and political

pressure on ensuring our Earth is being protected, such as other countries pushing South

American leaders to protect the Amazon Rainforest from deforestation and forest fires. It is of

high importance and hopes that future generations will take more advantage of public

transportation than their older counterparts. Finally, people in Orange County are very likely to

buy cars especially because there is a lack of public transportation. Residents of OC like to drive

their cars and look forward to using them daily because it is the only way they can get around the

county. With the introduction of the system, it is likely that less future residents will purchase

vehicles since they will be able to take advantage of public transportation.

(B3) There will be many different ways to access public transportation.

The Orange County Transit Vision encompasses several essential components aimed at

enhancing transportation infrastructure across the county: A crucial aspect of the project involves

implementing a reliable fixed-route bus system. This system is intended to offer widespread

connectivity, providing residents with accessible and dependable public transportation options.

By establishing an extensive network of fixed-route buses, the aim is to reduce reliance on

personal vehicles and potentially alleviate traffic congestion. Another part of the Transit Vision

plan is the integration of streetcar systems to improve urban transportation. Streetcars are

envisioned to contribute to smoother mobility within urban areas, potentially reducing

congestion in key locations across Orange County. Additionally, the project incorporates

innovative microtransit solutions to cater to specific transit needs. These solutions offer flexible

and on-demand transit services, potentially enhancing accessibility for diverse communities. By

addressing individualized commuting requirements, microtransit aims to complement traditional

transportation systems. Lastly, comprehensive strategies encompassing the first and last miles of
transit journeys are integral to the project. These strategies advocate for diverse modes of

transportation such as biking, pedestrian pathways, micro mobility options, and strategically

placed mobility hubs. The goal is to ensure seamless connectivity and ease of transit transfers for

commuters, addressing the initial and final segments of their journeys. Overall, the Orange

County Transit Vision incorporates multiple initiatives intended to improve transportation across

the county. Through the establishment of a reliable bus system, integration of streetcars,

introduction of innovative microtransit solutions, and comprehensive first/last mile strategies, the

project aims to enhance connectivity, accessibility, and potentially reduce dependency on

personal vehicles for commuting within Orange County.

(B4) There was success in the previous OCTV.

The Orange County Transit Vision is built upon another OCTV from 2018. One of the

key achievements of the 2018 Transit Vision was the introduction of OC Flex in 2019. This on-

demand microtransit service offered flexible transportation options, catering to specific transit

needs. By providing an adaptable service, OC Flex aimed to address transportation gaps and

offer more personalized transit solutions for residents. The launch of the Beach Blvd Bravo!

service in 2019 was another notable accomplishment. This initiative aimed to improve transit

along the Beach Boulevard corridor, providing a faster and more efficient bus service. By

enhancing transit options in this area, the project aimed to increase accessibility and connectivity

for commuters along this busy route. Expanding further on the Bravo! services, the Main Street

Bravo! launch in 2022 was a significant step towards improving transit within Orange County.

This initiative focused on enhancing bus services along the Main Street corridor, aiming to

provide commuters with reliable and expedited transportation options. The Making Better

Connections Study conducted in 2022 was a pivotal aspect of the 2018 Transit Vision. This study
aimed to analyze and identify ways to improve transit connections within the county. By

evaluating existing infrastructure and transit networks, the study aimed to lay the groundwork for

more efficient and integrated transit systems. Among the upcoming projects outlined in the 2018

Transit Vision is the OC Streetcar. This project intends to introduce a streetcar system,

enhancing urban transportation within Orange County. The implementation of the streetcar

system aims to further improve transit options, particularly in urban areas, potentially alleviating

congestion and providing an additional mode of transportation for residents. Another upcoming

project highlighted in the 2018 Transit Vision is the Bus-Rail Interface Plan. This initiative aims

to improve coordination and connectivity between bus and rail systems. By optimizing the

interface between these modes of transit, the project aims to create a more seamless and efficient

transit experience for commuters utilizing both bus and rail services.

(B5) Economic advantages of the Orange County Transit Vision.

With the introduction of a variety of public transportation modes for residents of Orange

County, there is a variety of jobs created and roles to be fulfilled. People will need to be hired to

manufacture these modes of transportation, repair them, drive them throughout the county, clean

them, and more. Additionally, those who are incapable of going far due to their lack of a car will

now be able to commute to jobs located far away more easily. This can lead to a decrease in

unemployment and a great way for the homeless to get a job, as it is extremely difficult for them

to do so due to their living conditions.

(B6) Environmental benefits of the Orange County Transit Vision.

The Orange County Transit Vision aims to have residents of OC opt to utilize public

transportation on a daily basis rather than individually driving their car to get around the county.

If implemented correctly, this would mean a significant reduction in cars on the roads of Orange
County, which would in itself lead to a significant reduction in Carbon Dioxide emissions

coming from the county. In the long run, this is a very smart decision and would benefit residents

by having cleaner air in the county, reducing respiratory problems. As seen in projects realized

during the 2018 Orange County Transit Vision such as the Main Street Bravo! launch in 2022

and the OC Flex launch in 2019, which both saw a solid amount of users.

(C) Arguments Against the Proposal

(C1) The Orange County Transit Vision is a long project.

The project is expected to take approximately thirty years to be completed, which

discourages a lot of people from supporting its execution, especially elders that will not be able

to take advantage of the system. Three decades is a very long time, which means that the public

transportation might not be able to keep up with the new technology and urban development that

rapidly increases in our society, especially in this day and age. Additionally, as the project is

being completed and construction progresses, it is possible that parts of the Transit Vision

Master Plan that have already been completed might need repairs, which adds up more time and

money to the already lengthy and expensive project. Finally, another disadvantage of the project

taking very long to be completed is that people that might need urgent transportation will have to

wait a considerable amount of time. There are a lot of wealthy areas in Orange County, but there

are also areas where people do not have the financial capability to afford a vehicle, especially

here in California where gas prices are very overpriced. For example, currently in Santa Ana, a

city inside of Orange County, there is a large housing shortage and there has been an increase in

the homeless population in recent years. Areas of the county with more money, such as Newport

Beach and Laguna Beach, have police officers take the homeless in their areas to cities such as

Santa Ana. Because of this, a lot of homeless people will buy bus tickets and spend their entire
day inside of the bus, as that way they have access to air conditioning. This makes riding public

buses more inconvenient and less accessible to those who need it, so immediate change is ideal.

(C2) The Orange County Transit Vision is expensive.

The final cost of the entire project of 2024 has not been made public yet, however,

according to the final report of the 2018 Transit Vision provided by the Orange County

Transportation Authority, the full on price of all the construction and adjustments they meant to

do back then would be between $2.1B to $2.6B (in 2017 USD)5. Due to inflation, these numbers

would be even greater nowadays, ranging from $2.6B to $3.25B. I was not able to find how

much per year to run and maintain the system after implementation because this information was

not made public. If the entire 2024 Transit Vision is completed, it is reasonable that it will cost

this much as it is a 30-year-long project that will require very extensive construction for multiple

decades. The 2018 Transit Vision was not entirely completed, only some small projects from the

whole plan were executed, so it is possible that the same thing will happen with the 2024 OCTV

and it will not come out to this much, but only the future can tell. Because of the expensive price,

a lot of people might be against the idea. Orange County is a place with a lot of people, and

because of this there is a need for investment in multiple areas. To spend this much money, time,

and effort in a single aspect of the county might not be a smart decision to some citizens.

(C3) The Orange County Transit Vision would have a lot of construction going on.

As there are lots of things to be built and projects to be completed inside of the Orange

County Transit Vision Master Plan, many roads and lanes would have to be blocked off, which

would limit cars and other vehicles to all take the same routes. This would create a lot of traffic

problems for residents of the county, and since the people of OC are heavily dependent on them,

creating even more traffic would discourage a great amount to support the plan. Additionally,

5 https://www.octa.net/pdf/OC%20Transit%20Vision%20Final%20Report.pdf (Page 101).

there would be an increase in noise due to all the construction, which would most likely disturb

residents of Orange County. Since this is a project that spans over the great majority of the

county and that will last for multiple decades, if the project is approved this might become a

frequent inconvenience to Orange County residents, which can also disencourage many from

supporting the OCTV.

(C4) Orange County citizens love to drive their cars.

According to Chapman University’s Orange County Annual Survey6 from 2019, the same

one cited in section B2 of this paper, we can see that residents of OC love to drive their cars. The

survey found that over 95% of residents either rarely or never took a bus, Metrolink, or Amtrak

in the year of 2018. Most importantly, seventy percent (70%) said they would still drive their car

to work even if more efficient public transit were available. It would not make sense for the

county to spend billions of dollars and years of work just for something that its residents will not

take advantage of. Additionally, the survey also showed that 53% of participants consider

Orange County’s traffic and transportation challenges very serious, and 36% consider them

somewhat serious. Lastly, when asked whether they would support a light rail system in Orange

County that is as ambitious as the light rail system in L.A.(the Los Angeles Metro Rail System

consists of six lines that extend throughout L.A. County), at the cost of as much as $100 million

per mile and the possible removal of lanes of traffic, the majority of participants expressed they

would not support the idea. This showcases how OC residents would much rather have the

county invest in its road systems and solve traffic problems rather than come up with an

advanced public transportation system.

(C5) The negative impacts on the environment.

6 https://www.chapman.edu/wilkinson/_files/ocsurvey-pages.pdf
 Although the Orange County Transit Vision aims to improve the air quality in Orange

County by reducing the number of vehicles on the road, other environmental issues may rise

during its construction. With increased vehicular activity during construction and operation

phase, there could be a rise in Carbon Dioxide emissions and other air pollutants in the short run.

Additionally, noise and visual pollution can have a negative impact on the wildlife of the region,

and some environmental areas may have to be adjusted or terminated depending on whether the

Orange County Transportation Authority needs to use the space.

D) Evaluative Annotated Bibliography

Espino, Marissa (2023). A transit master plan for Orange County. Orange County Transportation
Authority. https://www.octa.net/programs-projects/programs/plans-and-studies/a-transit-
master-plan-for-orange-county/

404. (Retrieved December 9, 2023). Orange County Transportation Authority. Retrieved

December 9, 2023, from https://www.octa.net/pdf/OC%20Transit%20Vision%20FINAL
%2001%20Vision%20COMP.pdf

‌404. (Retrieved December 9, 2023). Orange County Transportation Authority. Retrieved

December 9, 2023, from https://www.octa.net/pdf/OC%20Transit%20Vision%20Final
%20Report.pdf

Higgins, Bill. “Orange County Transportation Authority (OCTA).” California Association of

Councils of Governments, 30 June 2023, calcog.org/orange-county-transportation-
authority-octa/.

Espino, Marissa. OCTA Transit Vision Master Plan, Orange County Transportation Authority, 2
Nov. 2023, www.octa.net/pdf/OCTransitVisionFactSheet.pdf.

Espino, Marissa. “2024 OC Transit Vision Community Webinar November 2, 2023 - Octa.Net.”
2024 OC Transit Vision Community Webinar November 2, 2023, Orange County
Transportation Authority, 2 Nov. 2023,
www.octa.net/pdf/OCTV_FinalOCTVWebinar.pdf?n=1.

The primary purpose of this webinar slideshow is to explain to the general public some of
the logistics of the Orange County Transit Vision Master Plan, as during the time of this
webinar, the Orange County Transportation Authority was holding a survey in which the
general public, but mostly residents of Orange County one could assume, would vote on
whether they were in favor or against the return of OCTV. As Marissa Espino and
Charles Main wanted the voters of the survey to be completely honest, there was minimal
bias in the slideshow presentation, however, they do go over the benefits of the OCTV
 but not the cons. The slideshow presentation is under the name of the OCTA and the
speakers were Charles Main, the Project Manager of the OC Transit Vision Master Plan,
and Marissa Espino, who is the Public Outreach Section Manager, which makes both of
them trustworthy sources. The only source cited by the speakers in the webinar were
documents related to the OCTV. Although I would not consider the source very biased
per se, Charles Main and Marissa Espino tend to focus more on the brighter side of the
project than its negative consequences, but it is not something very alarming.

Published by Statista Research Department, and Nov 3. “Largest Counties in the U.S. 2022, by
Population.” Statista, 3 Nov. 2023, www.statista.com/statistics/241702/largest-counties-
in-the-us/.

Johnson, Darrell E. Agreement for the 2024 Orange County Transit Vision Master Plan, Orange
County Transportation Authority, 13 Apr. 2023, octa.legistar.com/View.ashx?
M=F&ID=11828105&GUID=27F6C439-05AD-4E29-A2F5-FC301280CD5A.

The purpose of the article is to settle the agreement for the 2024 Orange County Transit
Vision Master Plan on a firm to assist the Orange County Transportation Authority
conduct the project. The article does not take a stand for or against the proposal, it is
simply an agreement to decide the firm that OCTA will be working with and it explains
some of the logistics of the OCTV. The source and author are extremely reliable as they
are the Orange County Transportation Authority and Darrell E. Johnson, who is the Chief
Executive Officer of OCTA. Based on previous works of OCTA and the fact that they are
the ones conducting the Orange County Transit Vision Master Plan, it is safe to assume
that OCTA and Darrell E. Johnson are reliable sources of information. The source does
not cite other sources, only other agreements made by OCTA and projects realized in
Orange County and Los Angeles County. The source does not display any unfair
prejudice or bias for or against the proposal as its purpose is to simply decide which firm
the Orange County Transportation Authority will be working with.

Moodian, Michael A. Chapman University Orange County Annual Survey, Chapman University,
27 Mar. 2019, www.chapman.edu/wilkinson/_files/ocsurvey-pages.pdf.
The purpose of this article is to conduct a study that evaluates the people in Orange
County in different aspects with the intent of learning how to improve our society by
gathering data on their beliefs, the way they live, how they think, and more. This article
does not take a stand for or against the proposal. The publisher is Chapman University
and the author is Michael A. Moodian, who is a professor for Chapman University’s
integrated educational studies program, codirects Wilkinson College’s Orange County
Annual Survey, and serves as an associate professor of social science at Chapman-
affiliated Brandman University. It is reasonable to assume that both the source and the
author are very reliable and trustworthy since Chapman University is a private research
university from Orange County, and they conduct the study every year. The source does
not cite third party sources because all the data and information are gathered by Chapman
University themselves. The article does not display any unfair prejudice or bias for or
against the proposal as it is not about the Orange county Transit Vision Master Plan in
any way, and does not mention OCTV once in its article.