Property OVERWEIGHT (unchanged)

Sector Update | 10 November 2023

Sector Index Performance

3M 6M 12M
3Q23 recap: strong beat from SMRA
Absolute -3.2% -8.6% 7.4% while others delivered mixed results
Relative to JCI -8.6% -9.0% 9.2%
 Aggregate 4 developers reported 9M23 net profit of Rp5.1tr (+29% yoy)
25.0% which came below/in-line with ours/cons’ estimate at 70/72%.
20.0%
 9M23/3Q23 overall gross margin was relatively stable at 55/54%.
15.0%

10.0%
 We maintain OW on the sector amid interest rate tailwinds; our top pick
5.0%
stays with CTRA as the beneficiary of the new government incentives.
0.0% 9M23 results: below ours but in-line with consensus
-5.0% Aggregate 4 developers’ 9M23 booked net profit of Rp5.1tr (+29% yoy) which
-10.0% was below/in-line with our/cons’ FY23F estimates at 70/72%. Excluding non-
01-Jan
13-Jan
25-Jan
06-Feb

06-Jun
18-Jun
30-Jun
18-Feb

16-Oct
02-Mar
14-Mar
26-Mar

01-May
13-May
25-May

12-Jul
24-Jul
05-Aug
17-Aug
29-Aug
10-Sep
22-Sep
04-Oct

28-Oct
07-Apr

09-Nov
19-Apr

core items (i.e. forex), aggregate 4 developers’ core profit was at Rp4.8tr
JCI Index BSDE + CTRA + SMRA + PWON (+15% yoy) and came below ours/cons’ estimate at 69/68%. SMRA posted
the strongest result (strong beat ours/cons’ estimate) driven from its stellar
Summary Valuation Metrics top-line growth driven by recognition of Bogor/Serpong projects (40/30%
contribution to 9M23 revenue) concurrently with improvement on their retail
P/E (x) 2023F 2024F 2025F
performance (+22% yoy). 9M23 aggregate pre-tax profit of Rp6.9tr (+28%
BSDE IJ 8.8 8.4 8.3
yoy) driven by better interest income with gain on non-core items (others
CTRA IJ 12.5 10.1 8.9
include forex) of Rp841bn (vs. –Rp154bn in 9M22). 9M23 gross margin is
PWON IJ 10.5 10.4 9.2
stable at 55% (slightly lower compared to 57% in FY19).
SMRA IJ 14.2 11.2 9.6
3Q23 results: strong performance from stellar revenue growth
EV/EBITDA (x) 2023F 2024F 2025F 3Q23 aggregate 4 developers’ core profit came at Rp1.6tr (-16% yoy/ +22%
BSDE IJ 5.5 5.6 4.9 qoq) with BSDE and SMRA posted the strongest qoq growth. 3Q23 revenue
CTRA IJ 4.3 3.2 2.3 stood at Rp8.2tr (+10% qoq) driven by stronger non-recurring revenue (+12%
PWON IJ 5.2 5.0 4.4 qoq) due to handover schedule. 3Q23 gross margin was relatively stable at
SMRA IJ 4.8 4.4 4.0 54%, however, only BSDE and CTRA that booked margin expansion on qoq
basis from better non-recurring margin (product mix).
Div. Yield 2023F 2024F 2025F
Stable leverage position
BSDE IJ 2% 2% 2%
Overall aggregate developers’ net gearing level is quite stable at 3% where
CTRAIJ 1% 1% 1%
total debt level stood at Rp35.9tr (+9% yoy/ +8% qoq) concurrently with
PWON IJ 1% 2% 2%
higher cash level at Rp33.5tr (+12% yoy/ +10% qoq). Among our coverage,
SMRA IJ 0% 0% 0%
PWON and CTRA still maintain its net cash position in 3Q23.
Maintain OW on the property sector; CTRA and SMRA as our top picks
We maintain our OW amid attractive valuation as the sector currently trades
at 76% discount to NAV (vs. 5yr average of 70%) with CTRA and SMRA as
our top picks. CTRA shall be the beneficiary of the new government
incentives program due to high product mix of below Rp2/5bn and solid
presales outlook. Meanwhile, we expect there will be consensus earnings
upgrade for SMRA post-the result. Key risk is slow purchasing power amid
upcoming election year.

Michelle Nugroho
PT Indo Premier Sekuritas Fig. 1: Net profit summary
michelle.nugroho@ipc.co.id Net profit 9M23 9M22 %YoY 3Q23 3Q23 %YoY 2Q23 %QoQ
+62 21 5088 7168 ext. 717 BSDE 1,769 918 93% 568 455 25% 317 79%
CTRA 1,181 1,524 -23% 402 520 -23% 366 10%
PWON 1,487 1,191 25% 388 438 -11% 503 -23%
Anthony
SMRA 653 310 111% 219 55 298% 162 35%
PT Indo Premier Sekuritas
Total 5,090 3,944 29% 1,578 1,467 8% 1,349 17%
anthony@ipc.co.id
Source: Company, Indo Premier
+62 21 5088 7168 ext. 715

Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report

 10 November 2023
Sector Update
Property

Fig. 2: Aggregate 4 developers 3Q23 results summary

Aggregate
4 IPS %of
9M23 9M22 %YoY 3Q23 3Q22 %YoY 2Q23 %QoQ % of IPS Cons
developers FY23F Cons
(Rp bn)
Revenue 23,548 23,080 2% 8,219 9,099 -10% 7,438 10% 32,928 72% 32,249 73%
COGS (10,679) (10,447) 2% (3,795) (4,077) -7% (3,398) 12% (14,309) 75%
Gross
12,868 12,633 2% 4,424 5,022 -12% 4,040 10% 18,619 69% 18,162 71%
profit
GP margin 55% 55% 54% 55% 54% 57% 56%
Opex (4,995) (4,652) 7% (1,747) (1,802) -3% (1,772) -1% (6,765) 74%
EBIT 7,873 7,981 -1% 2,677 3,220 -17% 2,268 18% 11,855 66% 11,133 71%
Interest
(2,865) (3,066) -7% (990) (987) 0% (933) 6% (3,876) 74%
expense
Interest &
1,020 625 63% 361 201 79% 337 7% 1,050 97%
invt inc
Others
(include 841 (154) N/A 249 (386) N/A 224 11% 645 131%
forex)
Pretax
6,870 5,386 28% 2,297 2,049 12% 1,896 21% 9,673 71% 9,087 76%
profit
Tax (965) (913) 6% (344) (344) 0% (304) 13% (1,614) 60%
Minority
(814) (529) 54% (375) (237) 58% (243) 54% (827) 99%
interests
Net profit 5,090 3,944 29% 1,578 1,467 8% 1,349 17% 7,233 70% 7,107 72%
Core profit 4,833 4,207 15% 1,596 1,908 -16% 1,308 22% 6,985 69% 7,107 68%
Source: Company, Indo Premier

Fig. 3: Aggregate 4 developers margin breakdown

YoY QoQ
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23
(bp) (bp)
Non-recurring
60% 56% 57% 59% 56% 59% 58% 59% 68% 59% 56% (142) (209)
m argin
BSDE 72% 69% 70% 70% 66% 66% 64% 70% 81% 66% 65% 30 (101)
CTRA 44% 46% 49% 52% 51% 50% 54% 50% 48% 50% 46% (808) (335)
PWON 64% 61% 60% 63% 58% 61% 62% 60% 72% 61% 72% 1,054 1,101
SMRA 47% 50% 47% 53% 53% 63% 54% 49% 61% 55% 55% 159 64
Recurring m argin 56% 56% 56% 43% 39% 45% 47% 45% 53% 50% 51% 359 32
BSDE 84% 80% 75% 64% 46% 48% 55% 38% 59% 57% 54% (58) (241)
CTRA 54% 51% 52% 47% 45% 43% 45% 45% 54% 45% 45% 15 12
PWON 54% 54% 53% 39% 38% 47% 46% 50% 52% 52% 53% 706 64
SMRA 44% 47% 50% 26% 28% 42% 43% 45% 49% 47% 48% 545 166
Overall m argin 59% 56% 57% 54% 52% 55% 54% 55% 62% 56% 54% 32 (150)
BSDE 73% 72% 72% 69% 62% 62% 61% 64% 76% 64% 63% 104 (181)
CTRA 47% 47% 50% 51% 50% 49% 53% 49% 50% 48% 46% (662) (253)
PWON 58% 57% 56% 49% 48% 52% 51% 54% 57% 54% 58% 644 365
SMRA 46% 48% 48% 46% 47% 57% 49% 48% 56% 52% 52% 318 78
Source: Company, Indo Premier

Page 2 of 7
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
 10 November 2023
Sector Update
Property

Fig. 4: Aggregate 4 developers revenue breakdown

9M23 9M22 %YoY 3Q23 3Q22 %YoY 2Q23 %QoQ
Non-recurring 15,448 15,811 -2% 5,353 6,424 -17% 4,774 12%
BSDE 6,035 5,580 8% 1,875 2,690 -30% 1,695 11%
PWON 1,149 1,707 -33% 461 737 -37% 387 19%
CTRA 5,083 5,863 -13% 1,580 2,079 -24% 1,858 -15%
SMRA 3,182 2,661 20% 1,437 917 57% 834 72%
Recurring 8,099 7,269 11% 2,866 2,675 7% 2,664 8%
BSDE 1,274 1,565 -19% 435 619 -30% 427 2%
PWON 3,421 2,788 23% 1,212 1,008 20% 1,125 8%
CTRA 1,506 1,364 10% 540 482 12% 481 12%
SMRA 1,899 1,551 22% 680 565 20% 631 8%
Total 23,548 23,080 2% 8,219 9,099 -10% 7,438 10%
BSDE 7,308 7,146 2% 2,310 3,310 -30% 2,122 9%
PWON 4,569 4,495 2% 1,673 1,744 -4% 1,512 11%
CTRA 6,589 7,227 -9% 2,120 2,562 -17% 2,339 -9%
SMRA 5,081 4,212 21% 2,116 1,483 43% 1,465 44%
Source: Company, Indo Premier

Fig. 5: Aggregate 4 developers net gearing level

Net gearing 4Q17 4Q18 4Q19 4Q20 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23
BSDE 13% 22% 22% 22% 13% 10% 9% 4% 7% 6% 6% 4%
CTRA 32% 36% 32% 20% 14% 7% 4% 3% -1% -3% -6% -8%
PWON 20% 9% 3% 7% -5% -8% -11% -11% -7% -8% -7% -5%
SMRA 100% 103% 99% 114% 49% 34% 33% 33% 30% 28% 32% 34%
Total 29% 32% 29% 28% 14% 8% 6% 4% 5% 3% 3% 3%
Source: Company, Indo Premier

Page 3 of 7
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
 10 November 2023
Sector Update
Property

Fig. 6: BSDE 3Q23 results summary

BSDE 3Q23
IPS %of
results (Rp 9M23 9M22 %YoY 3Q23 3Q22 %YoY 2Q23 %QoQ % of IPS Cons
FY23F Cons
bn)
Revenue 7,308 7,146 2% 2,310 3,310 -30% 2,122 9% 11,204 65% 10,493 70%
COGS (2,644) (2,658) -1% (823) (1,195) -31% (795) 4% (3,730) 71%
Gross
4,664 4,487 4% 1,487 2,115 -30% 1,327 12% 7,474 62% 6,940 67%
Profit
GP margin 64% 63% 64% 64% 63% 67% 66%
Opex (2,137) (2,077) 3% (723) (860) -16% (761) -5% (3,050) 70%
EBIT 2,527 2,410 5% 764 1,255 -39% 566 35% 4,423 57% 3,706 68%
Interest
(1,201) (1,259) -5% (405) (415) -2% (399) 1% (1,617) 74%
expense
Interest &
356 249 43% 135 72 88% 107 25% 450 79%
invt inc
Others
(include 587 (136) -531% 262 (294) -189% 163 60% 431 136%
forex)
Pretax
2,269 1,265 79% 754 618 22% 436 73% 3,687 62% 2,875 79%
profit
Tax (263) (243) 8% (102) (106) -3% (70) 46% (485) 54%
Minority
(236) (103) 129% (84) (58) 46% (50) 70% (245) 97%
interests
Net profit 1,769 918 93% 568 455 25% 317 79% 2,958 60% 2,469 72%
Core profit 1,681 1,111 51% 538 782 -31% 319 69% 2,823 60% 2,469 68%

Source: Company, Indo Premier

Fig. 7: CTRA 3Q23 results summary

CTRA 3Q23
IPS Cons. %of
results (Rp 9M23 9M22 %YoY 3Q23 3Q22 %YoY 2Q23 %QoQ % of IPS
FY23F FY23F Cons
bn)

Revenue 6,589 7,227 -9% 2,120 2,562 -17% 2,339 -9% 9,251 71% 9,433 70%
COGS (3,469) (3,603) -4% (1,107) (1,307) -15% (1,264) -12% (4,692) 74%
Gross
3,121 3,624 -14% 1,013 1,255 -19% 1,075 -6% 4,558 68% 4,757 66%
Profit
GP margin 47% 50% 48% 49% 46% 49% 50%
Opex (1,297) (1,266) 2% (441) (462) -5% (481) -8% (1,755) 74%
EBIT 1,824 2,358 -23% 572 793 -28% 594 -4% 2,803 65% 2,997 61%
Interest
(870) (780) 12% (307) (256) 20% (274) 12% (1,044) 83%
expense
Interest &
271 161 68% 101 59 73% 88 15% 250 108%
invt inc
Others
(include 227 131 73% 120 35 242% 61 96% 206 110%
forex)
Pretax
1,452 1,871 -22% 485 631 -23% 469 4% 2,215 66% 2,317 63%
profit
Tax (200) (225) -11% (64) (77) -16% (70) -8% (398) 50%
Minority
interests &
(71) (122) -42% (19) (35) -44% (33) -42% (139) 51%
proforma
adjustment
Net profit 1,181 1,524 -23% 402 520 -23% 366 10% 1,678 70% 1,947 61%
Core profit 1,031 1,447 -29% 324 513 -37% 323 0% 1,565 66% 1,947 53%
Source: Company, Indo Premier

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Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
 10 November 2023
Sector Update
Property

Fig. 8: PWON 3Q23 results summary

PWON 3Q23
IPS Cons. % of
results (Rp 9M23 9M22 %YoY 3Q23 3Q22 %YoY 2Q23 %QoQ % of IPS
FY23F FY23F Cons
bn)

Revenue 4,569 4,495 2% 1,673 1,744 -4% 1,512 11% 5,967 77% 5,970 77%
COGS (2,058) (2,132) -3% (779) (798) -2% (641) 22% (2,656) 77%
Gross
2,511 2,364 6% 893 947 -6% 871 3% 3,311 76% 3,224 78%
Profit
GP margin 55% 53% 53% 54% 58% 55%
Opex (534) (421) 27% (188) (147) 28% (201) -6% (615) 87%
EBIT 1,977 1,943 2% 705 800 -12% 670 5% 2,696 73% 2,622 75%
Interest
(266) (250) 6% (90) (90) 0% (92) -2% (432) 62%
expense
Interest &
267 121 121% 89 44 99% 101 -12% 225 119%
invt inc
Others
(include 16 (166) -110% (138) (130) 7% (2) 7600% 0 N/A
forex)
Pretax
1,995 1,647 21% 565 624 -10% 678 -17% 2,490 80% 2,638 76%
profit
Tax (286) (265) 8% (97) (101) -4% (96) 2% (395) 73%
Minority
(221) (191) 16% (79) (85) -7% (79) 1% (179) 123%
interests
Net profit 1,487 1,191 25% 388 438 -11% 503 -23% 1,916 78% 1,914 78%

Core Profit 1,472 1,347 9% 517 560 -8% 505 3% 1,916 77% 1,914 77%

Source: Company, Indo Premier

Fig. 9: SMRA 3Q23 results summary

SMRA 3Q23
IPS %of
results (Rp 9M23 9M22 %YoY 3Q23 3Q22 %YoY 2Q23 %QoQ % of IPS Cons
FY23F Cons
bn)

Revenue 5,081 4,212 21% 2,116 1,483 43% 1,465 44% 6,507 78% 6,353 80%
COGS (2,509) (2,054) 22% (1,085) (778) 40% (698) 55% (3,230) 78%
Gross
2,572 2,158 19% 1,031 705 46% 767 34% 3,276 79% 3,240 79%
profit
GP margin 51% 51% 49% 48% 52% 50% 51%
Opex (1,027) (888) 16% (395) (334) 18% (329) 20% (1,344) 76%
EBIT 1,545 1,269 22% 636 372 71% 438 45% 1,932 80% 1,808 85%
Interest
(528) (777) -32% (187) (226) -17% (168) 11% (784) 67%
expense
Interest &
126 94 34% 37 27 37% 40 -9% 125 101%
invt inc
Others
(include 11 16 -30% 6 3 97% 2 226% 8 136%
forex)
Pretax
1,154 602 92% 492 175 180% 312 57% 1,281 90% 1,257 92%
profit
Tax (215) (180) 20% (80) (61) 33% (68) 17% (336) 64%
Minority
(286) (113) 154% (192) (60) NA (82) 135% (264) 108%
interests
Net profit 653 310 111% 219 55 298% 162 35% 681 96% 777 84%

Core profit 650 302 115% 218 53 307% 162 34% 681 95% 777 84%

Source: Company, Indo Premier

Page 5 of 7
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
 10 November 2023
Sector Update
Property

Fig. 10: Property P/E Fig. 11: Property discount to NAV

35.0 -30%

30.0 -40%

25.0 -50%

20.0 19.6 -60%

-64%
15.0 15.1 -70%
-70%
10.0 10.5 -77%
-80%
5.0
May-20 -90%
May-14

May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18

May-19

May-21

May-22

May-23
Nov-13

Nov-14

Nov-15

Nov-16

Nov-17

Nov-18

Nov-19

Nov-20

Nov-21

Nov-22

Nov-23
Property P/E AVG +1STD -1STD
Disc to NAV Avg +1STDEV -1STDEV

Source: Bloomberg, Company, Indo Premier Source: Bloomberg, Company, Indo Premier

Fig. 12: Peers comparison

P/E (x) ROE (%) 5yr ave.
Current Target Discount
Ticker Upside discount
Price Price FY23F FY24F FY23F FY24F to NAV
to NAV
BSDE 1020 1130 11% 8.8 8.4 7% 7% 81% 77%
CTRA 1130 1200 6% 12.5 10.1 9% 10% 64% 63%
PWON 418 645 54% 10.5 10.4 11% 10% 72% 58%
SMRA 585 805 38% 14.2 11.2 7% 8% 83% 78%
Source: Bloomberg, Company, Indo Premier Share price closing as of: 09 Nov 2023

Page 6 of 7
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
 10 November 2023
Sector Update
Property

SECTOR RATINGS
OVERWEIGHT : An Overweight rating means stocks in the sector have, on a market cap-weighted basis, a
positive absolute recommendation
NEUTRAL : A Neutral rating means stocks in the sector have, on a market cap-weighted basis, a neutral
absolute recommendation
UNDERWEIGHT : An Underweight rating means stocks in the sector have, on a market cap-weighted basis, a
negative absolute recommendation

COMPANY RATINGS
BUY : Expected total return of 10% or more within a 12-month period
HOLD : Expected total return between -10% and 10% within a 12-month period
SELL : Expected total return of -10% or worse within a 12-month period

ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst’s personal views about any and all of the
subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or
indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.

DISCLAIMERS
This research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any
representation or warranty nor accept any responsibility or liability as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness.
Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for general circulation. Any
recommendations contained in this document do not have any regard to the specific investment objectives, financial
situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is not and should not be construed as an
offer or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe or sell any securities. PT Indo Premier Sekuritas or its
affiliates may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report.