Introduction to Probability Theory (Stat 201)

Assignment (1)
Fall 2023

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• Due Wednesday, October 15th, 2023. After the tutorial.
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• The assignment is in 4 pages including the cover page.
Stat 201 Assignment 1 - P a g e 1 Summer 2023

Question 1:
One urn contains 4 red balls and 6 blue balls. A second urn contains 16 red balls and 𝑥 blue balls. A
single ball is drawn from each urn. The probability that both balls are the same color is 0.44.
Calculate 𝑥.

Question 2:
An MP3 player contains 60 songs: 30 rock, 15 jazz, and 15 blues. The player is set on random play,
so songs are played randomly and can be repeated. The duration of 20 rock songs, 10 jazz songs,
and 8 blues songs is longer than 3 minutes. The duration of the other songs is less than 3 minutes.
We play four songs. Find the probability of each of the following events
(a) The four songs are all jazz;
(b) Among the four songs, none is rock;
(c) The first song is a rock song or takes longer than 3 minutes;
(d) If the first song took more than 3 minutes, what is the probability it was a rock song?

Question 3:
A bag contains 3 white balls, 4 green balls, and 5 red balls. Three balls are drawn from the bag
without replacement.
(a) Find the probability of selecting three different colors.
(b) Find the probability that the balls are all the same color.

Question 4:
A father, mother, 2 boys and 3 girls are asked to line up for a photograph. Determine the number of
ways they can line up if
(a) There are no restrictions;
(b) The parents stand together.

Question 5:
(a) How many distinct permutations can be made from the letters of the word 'bookkeeper'?
(b) How many different ten-digit numerals can be written using all of the following ten digits:
1,4,3,4,3,8,4,3,1,3

Question 6:
A standard deck of 52 cards contains 4 aces. Suppose we choose a random ordering. Compute the
following
(a) The probability that all of the top 4 cards in the deck are aces;
(b) The probability that none of the top 4 cards in the deck is an ace.

Question 7:
A local postal carrier distributes first-class letters, advertisements, and magazines. For a particular
day, she spread the following numbers of each type of item:
Delivered First-class Ads Magazines
to letters
Home 325 406 203
Business 732 1021 97
If an item of mail is selected at random, find these probabilities:
(a) The item went to a home;
(b) The item was an ad, or it went to a business;
(c) The item was a first-class letter, or it went to a home.
Stat 201 Assignment 1 - P a g e 2 Summer 2023

Question 8:
A survey of a group's viewing habits over the last year revealed the following information:
(i) 28% watched gymnastics
(ii) 29% watched baseball
(iii) 19% watched soccer
(iv) 14% watched gymnastics and baseball
(v) 12% watched baseball and soccer
(vi) 10% watched gymnastics and soccer
(vii) 8% watched all three sports.
(a) Are the events 'watching baseball' and 'watching soccer' independent or dependent? (justify).
(b) (b) Calculate the percentage of the group that watched none of the three sports during the
last year.
Question 9:
A computer password consists of eight characters (repeating characters in passwords is allowed).
(c) How many different passwords are possible if each character may be any lowercase letter or
digit?
(d) How many different passwords are possible if each character may be any lowercase letter or
digit, and at least one character must be a digit?
(e) A computer system requires that passwords contain at least one digit. Suppose eight
characters are generated at random, and each is equally likely to be any of the 26 letters or
10 digits. What is the probability that a valid password will be generated?

Question 10:
It is known from experience that in a particular industry, 60 percent of all labor-management
disputes are over wages, 15 percent are over working conditions, and 25 percent are over fringe
issues. Also, 45 percent of the disputes over wages are resolved without strikes, 70 percent of the
disputes over working conditions are resolved without strikes, and 40 percent of the disputes over
fringe issues are resolved without strikes.
(a) What is the probability that a labor-management dispute in this industry will be resolved
without a strike?
(b) If a labor-management dispute in this industry is resolved without a strike, what is the
probability it was over wages?

Question 11:
While watching a game of Champions League football in a cafe in Manchester, you observe
someone supporting Manchester United. What is the probability that he was born within 25 miles of
Manchester? Assume that:
• The probability that a randomly selected person in a typical local cafe environment is born
within 25 miles of Manchester is 1/20
• The chance that a person born within 25 miles of Manchester supports United is 7/10, and
• The probability that a person not born within 25 miles of Manchester supports United with
a probability of 1/10.

Question 12:
A device has a sensor connected to an alarm system. The sensor triggers with a probability of 0.95
if dangerous conditions exist on a given day and with a probability of 0.005 if conditions are normal
during the day. Days with dangerous conditions occur with a probability of y 0.005. Given the above:
(a) What is the probability of a false alarm? I.e. the probability that conditions are normal when
the alarm system triggers?
(b) What is the probability of an unidentified critical condition, i.e. the probability that
conditions are dangerous when the system does not trigger?
Stat 201 Assignment 1 - P a g e 3 Summer 2023

Question 13:
Let A and B be two events such that 𝑃 (𝐴) = 0.4 and 𝑃 (𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 0.7
(a) What is 𝑃 (𝐵) if 𝐴 and 𝐵 are mutually exclusive?
(b) What is 𝑃 (𝐵) if 𝐴 and 𝐵 are independent?