The Big Picture: Outlook for 2024

November 15, 2023

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Speakers

Sarah Cottle Mark Ferguson Joe Mantone

SVP, Head of Research, Advisory Director, Metals & Mining U.S. Financial Institutions News
and Specialty Solutions Research Desk Manager
S&P Global Market Intelligence S&P Global Commodity Insights S&P Global Market Intelligence

Alex Johnston Veronica Retamales Burford Nathan Stovall

Research Analyst, Data, AI & Analytics Senior Research Analyst, Director, Financial Institutions
451 Research, a part of S&P Global Country Risk Research
Market Intelligence S&P Global Market Intelligence S&P Global Market Intelligence

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The new shift in AI

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The new shift in AI

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The new shift in AI

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Foundation models – it’s not just about large language models

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Generative AI market growth ($m)

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Growth in all segments, but not equally distributed

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Generative AI’s startup explosion will see consolidation
The Generative AI market in 2028

Source: 451 Research’s Market Monitor: Generative AI, 2023.

© 2023 S&P Global.

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Many organizations are struggling to meet the full extent of workload demands

Q. Which of the following best describes your IT environment’s ability to meet current AI/ML workload demands? Base: ML is in production or proof-of-concept, abbreviated field (n=376).
Source: 451 Research’s Voice of the Enterprise: AI & Machine Learning, Infrastructure 2023.

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Vast majority of organizations predict AI workload demands will increase

Q. Do you expect the demands of your organization's AI/ML workloads to increase or decrease over the next 2 years?
Base: ML is in production or proof-of-concept, abbreviated fielding (n=376).
Source: Voice of the Enterprise: AI and Machine Learning, Infrastructure 2023.

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Infrastructure is the main driver of project abandonment

Q. In which of these areas did challenges lead to project abandonment at your organization within the past 12 months? Please select as many as apply.
Base: All respondents (n=686).
Source: Voice of the Enterprise: AI and Machine Learning, Infrastructure 2023

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Spending on AI infrastructure is increasing

Q. Over the next 12 months, how much do you expect your organization's AI/ML infrastructure spending to increase or decrease?
Base: All respondents (n=710).
Source: 451 Research’s Voice of the Enterprise: AI & Machine Learning, Infrastructure 2023.

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Organizations expect to add infrastructure in multiple venues for AI

Q. Looking ahead 12 months, where will your organization store and prepare AI/ML data for processing that it isn’t already? Please select all that apply. (n=622).
Base: Organizations that will store and prepare/train/make predictions from new venues .
Source: 451 Research’s Voice of the Enterprise: AI & Machine Learning, Infrastructure 2022 .

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Water stress – Datacentres in India

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Water stress – Panama Canal impacts

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Growing complexities for global energy transition
State renewable and clean energy standards and goals
• Western policy initiatives

• Complex regulatory/legal environments

• Permitting and sourcing challenges

Average lead times of mines, discovery to production

15.7 years

Discovery, exploration, studies Construction decision Construction to startup

Data compiled Aug. 15, 2023

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence

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Macroeconomic conditions to pressure metals demand, prices
Relatively subdued metals prices going into 2024 through 2025

Data compiled Oct. 19, 2023.

Sources: S&P Global Market Intelligence; S&P Global Commodity Insights; London Metal Exchange; London Bullion Metal Association

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Issuers rely on shorter-term bonds as rates rise
Changes in investment grade financials bond maturity and coupon

IG = Investment Grade
Data compiled Oct. 7, 2023.
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence

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Equity issuance remains depressed
Global equity issuance activity since Q3 2021

Data compiled Nov. 1, 2023.

Analysis includes global public common and convertible preferred equity issuances completed between July 1, 2021, and Oct. 31, 2023.
Excludes private placements.
Aggregate amount offered includes overallotments.
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence.

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IPO activity trying to show signs of life
Global IPO activity since Q3 2021

Data compiled Nov. 1, 2023.

Analysis includes global initial public offerings completed between July 1, 2021, and Oct. 31, 2023.
Excludes private placements.
Aggregate amount offered includes overallotments.
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence.

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M&A activity remains slow
Global M&A activity: Jan. 1, 2019-Oct. 31, 2023

Data compiled Nov. 1, 2023.

Analysis includes global M&A deals announced between Jan. 1, 2019, and Oct. 31, 2023. Excludes terminated deals.
Transaction value is as of announcement date. Deal value used when transaction value is not available.
Transaction value = deal value paid for equity, plus the value of any assumed long-term debts.
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence.

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Any questions?

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Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Copyright © 2023 by S&P Global Market Intelligence. All rights reserved.
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