FB 231103022024

:
.................................................................................... 1
.......................................................... 1
.................................................. 8
................................................ 12
.......................................................................... 23
............................................ 26
............................................ 30
........................................................................ 35
............ 37
................................................ 40
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................................................ 66
........................................................................ 70
.................................................................................. 71
.................................................................... 71
I
.................................................................... 73
............................................... 79
............................................... 93
............................................. 105
.............................................. 115
........................................................................................ 123
II
1-1 ................................................................................ 9
1-1 3
3-1 Pearson 42
3-2
......................................................................................................... 42
3-3
......................................................................................................... 43
3-4
......................................................................................................... 43
3-5
......................................................................................................... 44
3-6 ............. 46
3-7 ..... 47
3-8 Pearson
...................................................................................................... 49
3-9 .. 50
3-10
III
......................................................................................................... 51
3-11 .... 52
4-1 Pearson
......................................................................................................... 59
4-2
......................................................................................................... 60
4-3
......................................................................................................... 60
4-4
......................................................................................................... 61
4-5
......................................................................................................... 61
4-6 ..... 62
4-7 .. 64
4-8 .. 64
4-9 .. 65
4-10 65
4-11 Pearson
.......................................................................................... 66
4-12
......................................................................................................... 67
4-13 69
IV
5-1 ........................................................ 77
5-2 ................................................................ 77
V
VI
1
2012
first past the
1 2011/05/17 2012/02/17
http://news.cts.com.tw/cna/politics/201105/201105170737469.html
2 A4 2011/06/14 2012/02/17
http://udndata.com/library/
3 2 2011/06/19 2012/11/14
http://210.69.89.181/CNA/do/www/ReadDocument?from=fullText&docId=6597374
1
post system FPTP
1-1
25%
SNTV 20%
MMM
12% 1-1
12%
4 2006
75
5 2007
http://homepage.ntu.edu.tw/~ntuvpadmin/records/960323/960323_txt.pdf
2
1-1
20% 22% 12%
3
6
FPTP MMM
2006 2008
113
mixed-member majoritarian system MMM
6
single non-transferable vote with
multi-member-district system SNTV-MMD SNTV
proportional representation system
PR SNTV
73 FPTP 34
(closed party list propotional
6 2012
19 2 129-158
4
7
representation) 6 SNTV
(localization)
2012
7 2008 35
8 A4 2011/05/18 2012/11/14
http://kmw.ctgin.com/member/news_search2/se_content_file8.asp?query=%A6%B6%BB%F1%AA
%DB%B1%D1%B5%B9%A5%AD%C2%ED%A5%AB%AA%F8&src=B&date=20110518&file=
N0028.001&dir=B&area=tw&frompage=se
9 2011/05/18 2012/11/14
http://news.pts.org.tw/detail.php?NEENO=180198
5
(MMM)
SNTV
260
10
11
12
10 2
11 3
12 9
6
13 14
SNTV MMM
(
)
13 2008
2008
37-66
14 2010 2008
03-53
7
/
SNTV
8
SNTV
MMM
2001 2012
MMM
(MMM)
1-1
(SNTV MMM)*
* 168 73
1-1
9
(empirical studies)
15
2001 2012
1352 ( 434 368

283 267 )
15 Chaba Frankfort-Nachmias David Nachmias 2003

399-407
10
2
(chi-square tes )
(observed frequencies)
(expected frequencies)
16
(goodness-of-fit test)
(test of homogeneity)
X Y (test
17
of independence)
SNTV MMM
(MMM)
16 15 595-598
17 2010 SPSS(PASW)
6-3 6-5
11
1.
18
DDP
18 8 1
12
19
KMT
2.
20
DDP
KMT 21
1.
1 0
2.
50%
1 50
0
19 8 4
20 8 1
21 8
13
3.
-29 0
30 -69 1 70 2
2001 2012
SNTV
MMM
(macro)
(micro)
14
1.
22
23
24
22 2012 11
http://www.moi.gov.tw/dca/02place_001.aspx
23 2009
2010
http://www.faps.org.tw/issues/subject.aspx?pk=96
24 2001
95
15
0 1
2 3
2.
(metropolitanization) (urbanization)
25
26
25 2007
26
16
(degree of urbanization)
27
2010
28
2012 11
29
13,950,141 23,305,021
59.86%
1
0
3.
(gerrymandered districts)
27 2008
59
28
29 22
17
(biased campaign finance laws)
(constituency service)
30
Powell 2000
31
32
1
33
0
4.
30 1998
75
31 G. Bingham Powell Jr., 2000, Elections as Instruments of Democracy : Majoritarian and Proportional
Visions. New Haven, CT : Yale University Press. Ch. 2, pp. 47-48.
32 1999 1998 NSC
88-2414-H-004-015
33
0
18
34
SNTV
35
(MMM)
Duverger s Law
SNTV
36
0
1 2 3
4 5
34 1999
119
35 2000
56-57
36 35
19
SNTV MMM
SNTV
MMM
20
21
22
Shaun Bowler
37
Maurice Duverger Duverger's law
38
Duverger
Duverger's law
37 A. Binder, and BertA.

Rockman eds., The Oxford Handbook of Political Institutions. New York: Oxford University Press.
Ch. 29, pp. 577-594.
38 Duverger, Maurice, 1954, Political Parties: Their Organization and Activity in the Modern State.
Translated by Barbara and Robert North, London: Methuen.
23
39
SNTV MMM
SNTV MMM
39 37
24
(plurality and majority systems)
(relative plurality)
19
40
(absolute majority)
40 hard G.
Niemi and Pippa Norris eds., Comeparing Democracies. Value 2. Pp.40-69.
25
(proportional repre-sentation systems)
(mixed and hybrid systems)
(Mixed-member Proportional)
(Mixed-member Majoritarian)
41
2004
225
(SNTV) 168 8
41
8
SNTV
2006
2008 225
113 6
41 2008 10-40
26
(SNTV)
(FPTP) 73 34
(PR)
(MMM)
SNTV MMM
SNTV MMM
SNTV
Taagepera Shugart
42
Duverger's law SNTV
SNTV
42 Taagepera, Rein, and Matthew Sobert Shugart, 1989, Seat & Votes: The Effects & Determinants of
Electoral Systems, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
27
43
SNTV
SNTV
44
43 2008 11-14
44 2002 SNTV
45
28
MMM
2008
(FPTP)
45
46
(MMM)
45 -Party System and Duverger's Law: An Essay on the History of

The American Political Science Review. Vol. 76, No. 4, pp. 753-766.
46 40
29
(MMM)
47
SNTV MMM
Shugart and Wattenberg48

(majoritarian)
(proportional)
SNTV
49
50
51
47
Lawrence LeDuc, Richard G. Niemi and Pippa Norris eds., Comparing Democracies 3: Elections
and Voting in the 21st Century. London: Sage. Ch. 1, pp. 25-45.
48 Shugart, Matthew and Wattenberg, Martin P., eds., Mixed-Member Electoral Systems: The Best of
Both Worlds? New York: Oxford University Press, 2001.
49 1998
50 35
51 2005 -
30
1980
52
53
54
55
52 35
53 2008
143-186
54 2010 2008
3-53
55 2011
181-217
31
2008 SNTV
2000 1980
56
2008 MMM
1995 Carey Shugart
(party lists)
FPTP
1.MMP mixed-member
proportional system MMP 2.MMM
56 35
32
SNTV 1. 2.
SNTV
(casework)
57
Frank C. Martin S. 2006
MMM MMP
MMM
MMP
58
59
57 Norris, Pippa, 1997, Electoral Engineering: Voting Rules and Political Behavior. Cambridge
University Press.
58 -
Comparative Political Studies. Texas Tech University, Lubbock, Texas.
59 2005 -
Mayhew, David, 1974, Congress: The Electoral Connection. New Haven and London: Yale
University Press.
33
60
61
Edmund Burke
(Bristol)
60 2005 -
Kingdon, John W., 1989, Ann Arbor: The University
of Michigan Press. pp.29-71. Arnold, R. Douglas, 1990, The Logic of Congressional Action. New
Haven and London: Yale University Press.
61 2005 -
Hibbing, John R. and Theiss-Morse, Elizabeth, 1995, Congress as Public Enemy: Public
Attitudes Toward American Political Institutions. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Davidson,
Roger H. and Oleszek, Walter J., 2002, Congress and Its Members. 8th ed. Washington, D. C.: A
Division of Congressional Quarterly, Inc. pp. 421-433.
34
62
63
SNTV MMM
SNTV MMM
62 2005 -
Burke, Edmund, 1969, The Representative as Trustee. In Hanna F. Pitkin, eds.
Representation. New York: Atherton Press. pp. 175-176.
63 35
35
MMM
36
SNTV MMM
37
70 (30 -69 )
-29
1973
64
Schiff Smith
65
Searing 1985
64
In Groennings, Sven and Hawley, Jonathan P., To Be A Congressman: The Promise and the Power.
Washington. DC: Acropolis Books. pp. 53-72.
65
38
66
Johannes 1983
67
Johannes
68
Freeman Richardson
69
1994
Legislative Sudies Quarterly. Vol.8, pp.457-467.

66 ency Member and the Practice of
The Journal of Politics. Vol.47, pp.348-381.
67 American Journal of Political
Science. Vol. 27, No.3, pp. 530-547.
68 Johannes, John R., 1984, To Serve the People: Congress and Constituency Service. Lincoln, NE:
University of Nabraska Press.
69
Studies Quarterly, Vol.21, No.1, pp.41-56.
39
70
70 1994 104-105
40
1352
3-1
Pearson
SNTV .000
SNTV MMM
41
3-1 Pearson
5 .000*** .000*** .000***

6 .000*** .000*** .000***
7 .072* .002*** .003***
8 .072* .002*** .018**
3-2
3-5
3-2
( 434 ) 30%~69%
115 83 183 15 167 26 5

58.1% 41.9% 92.4% 7.6% 84.3% 13.1% 2.5%
33 61 86 8 76 14 4
35.1% 64.9% 91.5% 8.5% 80.9% 14.9% 4.3%
34 85 114 5 89 28 2
28.6% 71.4% 95.8% 4.2% 74.8% 23.5% 1.7%
1 22 12 11 5 15 3
4.3% 95.7% 52.5% 47.8% 21.7% 65.2% 13.0%
42
3-3
( 368 ) 30%~69%
90 66 147 9 129 26 1
57.7% 42.3% 94.2% 5.8% 82.7% 16.7% 0.6%
25 73 89 9 75 21 2
25.5% 74.5% 90.8% 9.2% 76.5% 21.4% 2.0%
30 65 85 10 73 22 0
31.6% 68.4% 89.5% 10.5% 76.8% 23.2% 0.0%

2 17 8 11 3 10 6
10.5% 89.5% 42.1% 57.9% 15.8% 52.6% 31.6%
3-4
( 283 ) 30%~69%
57 72 107 22 87 36 6
44.2% 55.8% 82.9% 17.1% 67.4% 27.9% 4.7%
16 42 49 9 38 18 2
27.6% 72.4% 84.5% 15.5% 65.5% 31.0% 3.4%
29 45 61 13 48 24 2
39.2% 60.8% 82.4% 17.6% 64.9% 32.4% 2.7%
5 17 11 11 7 10 5
22.7% 77.3% 50.0% 50.0% 31.8% 45.5% 22.7%
43
3-5
( 267 ) 30%~69%
48 80 97 31 73 37 18
37.5% 62.5% 75.8% 24.2% 57.0% 28.9% 14.1%
15 42 45 12 32 19 6
26.3% 73.7% 78.9% 21.1% 56.1% 33.3% 10.5%
18 45 49 14 34 24 5
28.6% 71.4% 77.8% 22.2% 54.0% 38.1% 7.9%
2 17 7 12 4 8 7
10.5% 89.5% 36.8% 63.2% 21.1% 42.1% 36.8%
3-6
SNTV
MMM
MMM
60% 75%
SNTV
95.7
44
50%
MMM
4.2% 22.2%
50%
30% 69%
3-6
3-6
30% 69% SNTV MMM
3-7
30% 69%
30% 70%
45
60%
62.5%
3-6
30%~69%
58.1% 41.9% 92.4% 7.6% 84.3% 13.1% 2.5%
57.7% 42.3% 94.2% 5.8% 82.7% 16.7% 0.6%

44.2% 55.8% 82.9% 17.1% 67.4% 27.9% 4.7%
37.5% 62.5% 75.8% 24.2% 57.0% 28.9% 14.1%
35.1% 64.9% 91.5% 8.5% 80.9% 14.9% 4.3%
25.5% 74.5% 90.8% 9.2% 76.5% 21.4% 2.0%
27.6% 72.4% 84.5% 15.5% 65.5% 31.0% 3.4%
26.3% 73.7% 78.9% 21.1% 56.1% 33.3% 10.5%
28.6% 71.4% 95.8% 4.2% 74.8% 23.5% 1.7%
31.6% 68.4% 89.5% 10.5% 76.8% 23.2% 0.0%
39.2% 60.8% 82.4% 17.6% 64.9% 32.4% 2.7%
28.6% 71.4% 77.8% 22.2% 54.0% 38.1% 7.9%
4.3% 95.7% 52.5% 47.8% 21.7% 65.2% 13.0%

10.5% 89.5% 42.1% 57.9% 15.8% 52.6% 31.6%
22.7% 77.3% 50.0% 50.0% 31.8% 45.5% 22.7%
10.5% 89.5% 36.8% 63.2% 21.1% 42.1% 36.8%
46
3-7
30%~69%
58.1% 41.9% 92.4% 7.6% 84.3% 13.1% 2.5%

35.1% 64.9% 91.5% 8.5% 80.9% 14.9% 4.3%
( 434 ) 28.6% 71.4% 95.8% 4.2% 74.8% 23.5% 1.7%
4.3% 95.7% 52.5% 47.8% 21.7% 65.2% 13.0%
a.Pearson a.Pearson a.Pearson ( )
( ) ( ) = .000 = .000
= .000 b. =3 b. =6
b. =3
57.7% 42.3% 94.2% 5.8% 82.7% 16.7% 0.6%

25.5% 74.5% 90.8% 9.2% 76.5% 21.4% 2.0%
( 368 ) 31.6% 68.4% 89.5% 10.5% 76.8% 23.2% 0.0%
10.5% 89.5% 42.1% 57.9% 15.8% 52.6% 31.6%

( ) ( ) = .000 = .000
= .000 b. =3 b. =6
b. =3
44.2% 55.8% 82.9% 17.1% 67.4% 27.9% 4.7%

27.6% 72.4% 84.5% 15.5% 65.5% 31.0% 3.4%
( 283 ) 39.2% 60.8% 82.4% 17.6% 64.9% 32.4% 2.7%
22.7% 77.3% 50.0% 50.0% 31.8% 45.5% 22.7%

( ( ) = .002 = .003
= .072 b. =3 b. =6
b. =3
37.5% 62.5% 75.8% 24.2% 57.0% 28.9% 14.1%

26.3% 73.7% 78.9% 21.1% 56.1% 33.3% 10.5%
( 267 ) 28.6% 71.4% 77.8% 22.2% 54.0% 38.1% 7.9%
10.5% 89.5% 36.8% 63.2% 21.1% 42.1% 36.8%

( ) ( ) = .002 = .018
= .072 b. =3 b. =6
b. =3
47
2010
MMM
2001 2012 2010
3-8
Pearson SNTV
MMM
(p<0.005)
48
3-8 Pearson
5 .000*** .000*** .000***

6 .013** .051* .011**
7 .080* .895 .483*
8 .053* .230* .095*
3-9
3-9
3-10
3-10
3-11
3-11
76%
MMM
49
3-9
( 434 ) 30%~69%
50 117 141 26 107 52 8
29.9% 70.1% 84.4% 15.6% 64.1% 31.1% 4.8%
133 134 254 13 230 31 6
49.8% 50.2% 95.1% 4.9% 86.1% 11.6% 2.2%
( 368 ) 30%~69%
50 104 132 22 11 35 8
32.5% 67.5% 85.7% 14.3% 72.1% 22.7% 5.2%
97 117% 197 17 169 44 1
45.3% 54.7% 92.1% 7.9% 79.0% 20.6% 0.5%
( 283 ) 30%~69%
35 76 89 22 66 39 6
31.5% 68.5% 80.2% 19.8% 59.5% 35.1% 5.4%
72 100 139 33 114 49 9
41.9% 58.1% 80.8% 19.2% 66.3% 28.5% 5.2%
( 267 ) 30%~69%
24 76 70 30 45 39 16
24.0% 76.0% 70.0% 30.0% 45.0% 39.0% 16.0%
59 108 128 39 98 49 20
35.3% 64.7% 76.6% 23.4% 58.7% 29.3.% 12.0%
50
3-10
30%~69%
29.9% 70.1% 84.4% 15.6% 64.1% 31.1% 4.8%

( 434 ) 49.8% 50.2% 95.1% 4.9% 86.1% 11.6% 2.2%
( ) ( ) = .000 = .000
= .000 b. =1 b. =1
b. =1
32.5% 67.5% 85.7% 14.3% 72.1% 22.7% 5.2%

( 368 ) 45.3% 54.7% 92.1% 7.9% 79.0% 20.6% 0.5%
( ) ( ) = .051 = .011
= .013 b. =1 b. =2
b. =1
31.5% 68.5% 80.2% 19.8% 59.5% 35.1% 5.4%

( 283 ) 41.9% 58.1% 80.8% 19.2% 66.3% 28.5% 5.2%
( ) ( ) = .895 = .483
= .080 b. =1 b. =2
b. =1
24.0% 76.0% 70.0% 30.0% 45.0% 39.0% 16.0%

( 267 ) 35.3% 64.7% 76.6% 23.4% 58.7% 29.3.% 12.0%
( ) ( ) = .230 = .095
= .053 b. =1 b. =2
b. =1
51
3-11
30%~69%
29.9% 70.1% 84.4% 15.6% 64.1% 31.1% 4.8%

32.5% 67.5% 85.7% 14.3% 72.1% 22.7% 5.2%
31.5% 68.5% 80.2% 19.8% 59.5% 35.1% 5.4%
24.0% 76.0% 70.0% 30.0% 45.0% 39.0% 16.0%
49.8% 50.2% 95.1% 4.9% 86.1% 11.6% 2.2%
45.3% 54.7% 92.1% 7.9% 79.0% 20.6% 0.5%
41.9% 58.1% 80.8% 19.2% 66.3% 28.5% 5.2%
35.3% 64.7% 76.6% 23.4% 58.7% 29.3.% 12.0%
SNTV
50%
52
MMM
MMM
SNTV PR
SNTV PR
(free rider) MMM
53
54
SNTV
50%
SNTV MMM MMM
55
SNTV
MMM
71
72
71 1998 2000 2005

72 48
56
73
1. 2.
3.
(pork barrel)
74
Duverger
75
73 EX
74 (startegic voting) (agenda
setting) (sophisticated) (log-rolling)
(distributive benefits)
2002
45
75 38
57
7677
SNTV
MMM
SNTV
MMM
4-1
76 ote: a Rank Ordering

. Vol.14, pp: 419-439.
77 Cox, Gary and McCubbins, Mathew D., 1993, Legislative Leviathan: Party Govornment in The
House. Berkeley : University of California Press.
58
4-1 Pearson
5 .000*** .493* .050*

6 .001*** .716 .620
7 .000*** .000*** .000***
8 .000*** .000*** .000***
4-2 4-5
59
4-2
( 434 ) 30%~69%
31 50 76 5 60 21 0
38.3% 61.7% 93.8% 6.2% 74.1% 25.9% 0.0%

20 69 80 9 67 16 6
22.5% 77.5% 89.9% 10.1% 75.3% 18.0% 1.4%
19 37 49 7 40 15 1
33.9% 66.1% 87.5% 12.5% 71.4% 26.8% 0.2%
17 20 36 1 29 8 0
45.9% 54.1% 97.3% 2.7% 78.4% 21.6% 0.0%
14 18 30 2 26 6 0
43.8% 56.3% 93.8% 6.3% 81.3% 18.8% 0.0%
82 57 15 15 115 17 7
59.0% 41.0% 10.8% 10.8% 82.7% 12.2% 1.6%
4-3
( 368 ) 5 30%~69%
28 62 77 13 64 23 3
31.1% 68.9% 85.6% 14.4% 71.1% 25.6% 3.3%
20 50 63 7 50 18 2
28.6% 71.4% 90.0% 10.0% 71.4% 25.7% 2.9%
16 22 35 3 30 7 1
42.1% 57.9% 92.1% 7.9% 78.9% 18.4% 2.6%
7 21 24 4 19 9 0
25.0% 75.0% 85.7% 14.3% 67.9% 32.1% 0.0%
1 0 1 0 1 0 0
100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
75 66 129 12 116 22 3
53.2% 46.8% 91.5% 8.5% 82.3% 15.6% 2.1%
60
4-4
( 283 ) 30%~69%
7 62 51 18 30 34 5
10.1% 89.9% 73.9% 26.1% 43.5% 49.3% 1.8%
7 63 46 24 29 36 5
10.0% 90.0% 65.7% 34.3% 41.4% 51.4% 1.8%
0 1 1 0 0 1 0
0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%
4 9 13 0 9 4 0
30.8% 69.2% 100.0% 0.0% 69.2% 30.8% 0.0%
89 41 117 13 112 13 13
68.5% 31.5% 90.0% 10.0% 86.2% 10.0% 3.8%
4-5
( 267 ) 30%~69%
11 58 49 20 29 32 8
15.9% 84.1% 71.0% 29.0% 42.0% 46.4% 11.6%
5 66 37 34 19 33 19
7.0% 93.0% 52.1% 47.9% 26.8% 46.5% 26.8%
1 9 8 2 6 3 1
10.0% 90.0% 80.0% 20.0% 60.0% 30.0% 10.0%
0 1 0 1 0 0 1
0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
66 50 104 12 89 20 7
56.9% 43.1% 89.7% 10.3% 76.7% 17.2% 6.0%
61
4-6
30%~69%
38.3% 61.7% 93.8% 6.2% 74.1% 25.9% 0.0%
31.1% 68.9% 85.6% 14.4% 71.1% 25.6% 3.3%

10.1% 89.9% 73.9% 26.1% 43.5% 49.3% 1.8%
15.9% 84.1% 71.0% 29.0% 42.0% 46.4% 11.6%
22.5% 77.5% 89.9% 10.1% 75.3% 18.0% 1.4%
28.6% 71.4% 90.0% 10.0% 71.4% 25.7% 2.9%
10.0% 90.0% 65.7% 34.3% 41.4% 51.4% 1.8%
7.0% 93.0% 52.1% 47.9% 26.8% 46.5% 26.8%
33.9% 66.1% 87.5% 12.5% 71.4% 26.8% 0.2%
42.1% 57.9% 92.1% 7.9% 78.9% 18.4% 2.6%
0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%
10.0% 90.0% 80.0% 20.0% 60.0% 30.0% 10.0%
45.9% 54.1% 97.3% 2.7% 78.4% 21.6% 0.0%

25.0% 75.0% 85.7% 14.3% 67.9% 32.1% 0.0%
30.8% 69.2% 100.0% 0.0% 69.2% 30.8% 0.0%
43.8% 56.3% 93.8% 6.3% 81.3% 18.8% 0.0%

100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
59.0% 41.0% 89.7% 10.8% 82.7% 12.2% 1.6%

53.2% 46.8% 91.5% 8.5% 82.3% 15.6% 2.1%
68.5% 31.5% 90.0% 10.0% 86.2% 10.0% 3.8%
56.9% 43.1% 89.7% 10.3% 76.7% 17.2% 6.0%
62
4-2 4-5
4-6
50%
70%
90%
50%
4-2 4-5
30%
30% 69% 70%
63
70%
4-7 4-10
4-7
( 434 ) 30%~69%
38.3% 61.7% 93.8% 6.2% 74.1% 25.9% 0.0%

22.5% 77.5% 89.9% 10.1% 75.3% 18.0% 1.4%
33.9% 66.1% 87.5% 12.5% 71.4% 26.8% 0.2%
45.9% 54.1% 97.3% 2.7% 78.4% 21.6% 0.0%
43.8% 56.3% 93.8% 6.3% 81.3% 18.8% 0.0%
59.0% 41.0% 10.8% 10.8% 82.7% 12.2% 1.6%
a.Pearson a.Pearson a.Pearson (
( ) ( ) ) = .050
= .000 = .493 b. =10
b. =5 b. =5
4-8
( 368 ) 5 30%~69%
31.1% 68.9% 85.6% 14.4% 71.1% 25.6% 3.3%

28.6% 71.4% 90.0% 10.0% 71.4% 25.7% 2.9%
42.1% 57.9% 92.1% 7.9% 78.9% 18.4% 2.6%
25.0% 75.0% 85.7% 14.3% 67.9% 32.1% 0.0%
100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
53.2% 46.8% 91.5% 8.5% 82.3% 15.6% 2.1%
( ) ( ) ) = .620
= .001 = .716 b. =10
b. =5 b. =5
64
4-9
( 283 ) 30%~69%
10.1% 89.9% 73.9% 26.1% 43.5% 49.3% 1.8%

10.0% 90.0% 65.7% 34.3% 41.4% 51.4% 1.8%
0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%
30.8% 69.2% 100.0% 0.0% 69.2% 30.8% 0.0%
68.5% 31.5% 90.0% 10.0% 86.2% 10.0% 3.8%

( ) ( ) ) = .000
= .000 = .000 b. =8
b. =4 b. =4
4-10
( 267 ) 30%~69%
15.9% 84.1% 71.0% 29.0% 42.0% 46.4% 11.6%
7.0% 93.0% 52.1% 47.9% 26.8% 46.5% 26.8%
10.0% 90.0% 80.0% 20.0% 60.0% 30.0% 10.0%
0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
56.9% 43.1% 89.7% 10.3% 76.7% 17.2% 6.0%

( ) ( ) ) = .000
= .000 = .000 b. =8
b. =4 b. =4
65
SNTV
MMM
4-11 Pearson
5 .003*** .456* .076*

6 .089* .055* .779
7 .000*** .000*** .000***
8 .000*** .081* .153*
4-1 4-11
4-11
66
4-12
( 434 ) 30%~69%
141 160 276 25 239 56 6
46.8% 53.2% 91.7% 8.3% 79.4% 18.6% 2.0%
42 91 119 14 98 27 8
31.6% 68.4% 89.5% 10.5% 73.7% 20.3% 6.0%
( 368 ) 30%~69%
100 131 212 19 178 47 6
43.3% 56.7% 91.8% 8.2% 77.1% 20.3% 2.6%
47 90 117 20 102 32 3
34.3% 65.7% 85.4% 14.6% 74.5% 23.4% 2.2%
( 283 ) 30%~69%
98 72 151 19 131 33 6
57.6% 42.4% 88.8% 11.2% 77.1% 19.4% 3.5%
9 104 77 36 49 55 9
8.0% 92.0% 68.1% 31.9% 43.4% 48.7% 8.0%
( 267 ) 30%~69%
76 130 158 48 116 66 24
36.9% 63.1% 76.7% 23.3% 56.3% 32.0% 11.7%
7 54 40 21 27 22 12
11.5% 88.5% 65.6% 34.4% 44.3% 36.1% 19.7%
67
4-12
4-13
SNTV
MMM
88.5%
50%
30%
69% 4-13
68
30% MMM
30%
30%~69% 70%
4-13
30%~69%
46.8% 53.2% 91.7% 8.3% 79.4% 18.6% 2.0%

( 434 ) 31.6% 68.4% 89.5% 10.5% 73.7% 20.3% 6.0%
( ) ( ) ) = .076
= .003 = .456 b. =2
b. =1 b. =1
43.3% 56.7% 91.8% 8.2% 77.1% 20.3% 2.6%

( 368 ) 34.3% 65.7% 85.4% 14.6% 74.5% 23.4% 2.2%
( ) ( ) ) = .779
= .089 = .055 b. =2
b. =1 b. =1
57.6% 42.4% 88.8% 11.2% 77.1% 19.4% 3.5%

( 283 ) 8.0% 92.0% 68.1% 31.9% 43.4% 48.7% 8.0%
( ) ( ) = .000 = .000
= .000 b. =1 b. =2
b. =1
36.9% 63.1% 76.7% 23.3% 56.3% 32.0% 11.7%

( 267 ) 11.5% 88.5% 65.6% 34.4% 44.3% 36.1% 19.7%
( ) ( ) = .081 = .153
= .000 b. =1 b. =2
b. =1
69
Pearson SNTV
MMM
70
2001 2012
SNTV
MMM
SNTV MMM
71
MMM
Pearson
MMM SNTV
MMM
72
MMM
Shugart & Carey 1992

(concurrent election)
(non-concurrent election)
(honeymoon elections)
(counterhoneymoon elections) (midterm election)
73
(mixed cycles)
(coattail effect)
78
2012
MMM
78 Shugart, Mathew S. and Carey, John M., 1992, Presidents and Assemblies: Constitutional Design and
Electoral Dynamics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
74
79
SNTV PR
MMM
168 73
SNTV
80
5%
81
79 40
80 47
81 SNTV
MMM
75
5-1
82
MMM
SNTV 5-2
SNTV MMM
SNTV MMM
82
76
MMM
5-1
5 41/434 9.45
6 29/368 7.88
7 90/283 31.80
8 70/267 26.22
5-2
5 98/434 22.58
6 111/368 30.16
7 40/283 14.13
8 46/267 17.23
77
83
83 Earl Babbie 2006 414-415
78
1 1 2 0 1 1 0.00
1 2 3 0 1 1 0.00
1 3 5 0 0 1 0.00
1 4 5 0 0 1 0.00
1 5 5 0 0 1 0.00
1 6 5 0 0 1 0.00
1 7 4 0 0 1 0.09
1 8 5 0 0 1 0.00
1 9 4 0 0 1 0.00
1 10 1 0 1 1 0.10
1 11 5 1 0 1 0.00
1 12 5 0 0 1 0.00
1 13 0 0 0 1 0.00
1 14 0 0 1 1 0.00
1 15 1 0 0 1 0.00
1 16 2 0 0 1 0.00
1 17 1 1 0 1 0.00
1 18 0 1 1 1 0.00
1 19 5 0 0 1 0.00
1 20 4 0 0 1 0.00
1 21 5 0 0 1 0.17
1 22 5 0 0 1 0.00
1 23 2 0 1 1 0.05
1 24 0 1 1 1 0.00
1 25 1 1 1 1 0.00
1 26 5 1 0 1 0.00
1 27 5 0 0 1 0.00
1 28 5 0 0 1 0.00
1 29 5 0 0 1 0.00
1 30 0 1 1 1 0.00
1 31 5 0 0 1 0.00
79
1 32 2 1 1 1 0.00
2 1 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 2 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 3 4 1 0 1 0.00
2 4 3 0 0 1 0.00
2 5 4 1 0 1 0.00
2 6 2 0 1 1 0.00
2 7 0 0 0 1 0.00
2 8 5 0 0 1 0.08
2 9 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 10 2 0 1 1 0.00
2 11 1 0 1 1 0.00
2 12 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 13 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 14 5 0 1 1 0.00
2 15 0 0 1 1 0.00
2 16 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 17 4 0 0 1 0.00
2 18 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 19 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 20 2 1 1 1 0.00
2 21 0 1 1 1 0.00
2 22 3 0 0 1 0.00
2 23 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 24 1 1 1 1 0.00
2 25 3 0 0 1 0.00
2 26 1 1 0 1 0.00
2 27 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 28 1 1 0 1 0.00
2 29 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 30 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 31 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 32 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 33 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 34 2 0 0 1 0.00
80
2 35 5 0 0 1 0.09
2 36 0 0 1 1 0.00
2 37 0 0 1 1 0.00
1 1 5 0 0 1 0.00
1 2 5 0 0 1 0.10
1 3 0 1 1 1 0.00
1 4 5 0 0 1 0.00
1 5 3 0 0 1 0.17
1 6 4 0 0 1 0.10
1 7 5 0 0 1 0.00
1 8 1 1 0 1 0.00
1 9 5 0 0 1 0.00
1 10 1 1 0 1 0.28
1 11 2 0 1 1 0.00
1 12 2 1 1 1 0.00
1 13 5 0 0 1 0.00
1 14 0 0 1 1 0.00
1 15 1 1 1 1 0.07
1 16 1 0 0 1 0.10
1 17 3 0 1 1 0.67
1 18 5 1 0 1 0.71
1 19 5 0 0 1 0.00
1 20 0 1 1 1 0.00
1 21 5 0 0 1 0.00
1 22 0 1 1 1 0.00
1 23 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 1 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 2 0 0 1 1 0.63
2 3 1 1 1 1 0.63
2 4 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 5 1 0 0 1 0.00
2 6 0 1 1 1 0.24
2 7 4 0 0 1 0.18
2 8 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 9 3 0 0 1 0.00
81
2 10 1 1 0 1 0.22
2 11 0 1 1 1 0.10
2 12 2 0 1 1 0.07
2 13 2 0 1 1 0.00
2 14 1 1 1 1 0.20
2 15 1 1 1 1 0.25
2 16 5 1 0 1 0.00
2 17 2 0 0 1 0.10
2 18 0 0 1 1 0.07
2 19 3 1 1 1 0.28
3 1 4 0 0 1 0.08
3 2 5 0 0 1 0.50
3 3 1 1 1 1 0.00
3 4 5 0 0 1 0.00
3 5 5 0 0 1 0.00
3 6 3 0 0 1 0.00
3 7 0 1 1 1 0.14
3 8 5 1 1 1 0.00
3 9 5 0 0 1 0.00
3 10 1 0 0 1 0.08
3 11 1 1 0 1 0.28
3 12 5 0 0 1 0.00
3 13 1 1 1 1 0.00
3 14 2 1 1 1 0.20
3 15 0 0 1 1 0.43
3 16 5 0 0 1 0.31
3 17 0 1 1 1 0.00
3 18 5 0 0 1 0.08
3 19 3 0 0 1 0.17
3 20 2 0 1 1 0.00
3 21 5 0 0 1 0.83
3 22 4 0 0 1 0.28
3 23 2 0 0 1 0.14
3 24 2 0 1 1 0.40
3 25 5 1 0 1 0.33
82
3 26 5 0 0 1 0.00
3 27 5 0 0 1 0.43
1 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 3 0 1 1 0.17
3 0 0 1 1 0.00
4 5 0 0 1 0.08
5 5 0 0 1 0.00
6 5 0 0 1 0.00
7 0 0 1 1 0.25
8 2 1 1 1 0.25
9 5 0 0 1 0.00
10 4 0 0 1 0.50
11 5 0 0 1 0.00
12 5 0 0 1 0.00
13 5 0 0 1 0.00
14 5 0 0 1 0.17
15 5 0 0 1 0.00
16 1 1 0 1 0.75
17 1 1 1 1 0.14
18 0 0 0 1 0.00
19 1 1 1 1 0.07
20 2 1 1 1 0.22
1 1 1 1 1 0.21
2 2 1 1 1 0.20
3 1 1 1 1 0.10
4 1 1 1 1 0.25
5 5 0 1 1 0.83
6 1 1 0 1 0.35
7 5 0 0 1 0.00
8 1 1 1 1 0.00
9 2 0 0 1 0.10
10 0 1 1 1 0.07
11 0 1 1 1 0.20
12 3 0 0 1 0.00
13 1 0 1 1 0.25
83
14 0 0 1 1 0.30
15 0 1 0 1 0.20
16 5 1 0 1 0.10
17 5 0 0 1 0.00
18 4 0 0 1 0.18
19 2 0 0 1 0.20
20 2 0 0 1 0.23
21 0 0 1 1 0.09
1 3 0 1 1 0.23
2 0 1 1 1 0.33
3 5 0 0 1 0.00
4 1 1 1 1 0.08
5 1 1 1 1 0.16
6 4 0 0 1 0.04
7 2 0 0 1 0.15
8 5 0 0 1 0.40
9 2 0 0 1 0.30
10 5 0 0 1 0.00
11 0 1 1 1 0.06
12 5 0 0 1 0.13
13 0 1 1 1 0.47
1 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 0 1 1 1 0.00
3 4 0 0 1 0.14
4 3 0 0 1 0.00
5 2 0 1 1 0.08
6 1 0 1 1 0.13
7 1 1 0 1 0.70
8 3 0 0 1 0.00
9 3 0 0 1 0.19
10 0 0 1 1 0.20
11 1 1 1 1 0.33
12 1 1 0 1 0.20
13 1 1 0 1 0.10
14 0 1 1 1 0.50
84
15 0 0 1 1 0.17
16 0 0 1 1 0.13
17 5 0 0 1 0.17
18 1 1 0 1 0.15
19 5 0 0 1 0.12
20 5 0 0 1 0.20
1 1 0 0 1 1 0.17
1 2 3 0 1 1 0.00
1 3 4 1 0 1 0.00
1 4 5 0 0 1 0.40
1 5 1 0 0 1 0.25
1 6 5 0 0 1 0.10
1 7 1 1 1 1 0.13
1 8 0 1 1 1 0.11
1 9 2 0 0 1 0.30
1 10 1 0 1 1 0.25
1 11 2 0 0 1 0.31
1 12 5 0 0 1 0.00
1 13 0 1 1 1 0.00
1 14 5 0 0 1 0.09
1 15 5 1 0 1 0.20
1 16 5 0 0 1 0.17
1 17 2 0 0 1 0.50
2 1 1 1 0 1 0.15
2 2 5 0 0 1 0.70
2 3 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 4 5 0 0 1 0.08
2 5 3 0 1 1 0.40
2 6 5 0 0 1 0.16
2 7 2 0 1 1 0.22
2 8 1 0 0 1 0.00
2 9 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 10 4 0 0 1 0.00
2 11 5 0 0 1 0.20
2 12 0 1 1 1 0.00
85
2 13 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 14 1 0 0 1 0.30
2 15 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 16 5 0 0 1 0.10
2 17 0 1 1 1 0.42
2 18 0 0 1 1 0.13
2 19 5 0 0 1 0.00
1 0 0 1 1 0.17
2 1 0 1 1 0.30
3 2 1 1 1 0.30
4 5 0 0 1 0.10
5 0 1 1 1 0.25
6 3 0 1 1 0.42
7 4 0 0 1 0.00
8 1 1 0 1 0.40
9 5 0 0 1 0.00
10 0 0 0 1 0.00
11 5 0 0 1 0.00
12 0 0 0 1 0.00
13 1 1 1 1 0.15
14 5 0 0 1 0.20
15 0 1 1 1 0.38
16 1 1 0 1 0.07
17 1 1 1 1 0.31
18 2 1 1 1 0.13
19 3 0 0 1 0.13
1 3 0 0 0 0.00
2 5 0 0 0 0.20
3 5 0 0 0 0.60
4 0 1 1 0 0.27
5 1 1 1 0 0.29
6 2 0 1 0 0.10
7 0 0 0 0 0.10
8 5 0 0 0 0.50
9 0 0 1 0 0.63
86
10 1 1 0 0 0.17
1 2 0 1 0 0.00
2 2 1 1 0 0.14
3 3 0 0 0 0.22
4 5 0 0 0 0.17
5 0 0 1 0 0.30
6 0 0 1 0 0.43
7 5 0 0 0 0.06
8 1 1 1 0 0.13
9 2 1 1 0 0.00
10 1 0 0 0 0.00
11 0 0 1 0 0.09
12 1 1 0 0 0.33
13 5 0 0 0 0.00
14 2 0 0 0 0.56
15 3 0 0 0 0.29
16 0 1 1 0 0.00
17 1 0 1 0 0.07
18 3 0 0 0 0.00
19 2 0 0 0 0.00
20 1 0 1 0 0.20
21 0 1 0 0 0.00
22 4 0 0 0 0.00
23 0 0 1 0 0.10
24 1 1 1 0 0.20
25 1 1 1 0 0.44
26 5 0 0 0 0.31
1 1 1 1 0 0.00
2 0 1 1 0 0.42
3 5 0 0 0 0.00
4 3 0 0 0 0.30
5 2 0 1 0 0.00
6 4 0 0 0 0.33
1 1 1 1 0 0.19
2 1 1 1 0 0.75
87
3 3 0 0 0 0.00
4 0 0 1 0 0.40
5 5 0 0 0 0.13
6 4 0 0 0 0.00
7 5 0 0 0 0.64
8 5 0 0 0 0.00
9 1 0 0 0 0.56
10 5 0 0 0 0.10
11 2 0 1 0 0.36
1 2 0 0 0 0.45
2 0 0 1 0 0.00
3 1 1 1 0 0.15
4 0 0 1 0 0.27
5 1 0 1 0 0.09
6 3 0 0 0 0.14
7 4 1 0 0 0.38
8 1 0 1 0 0.20
9 0 0 1 0 0.16
10 2 1 0 0 0.13
11 1 1 0 0 0.00
12 0 1 1 0 0.00
13 1 0 0 0 0.00
14 2 1 1 0 0.17
15 1 1 0 0 0.00
16 1 1 1 0 0.64
17 3 0 0 0 0.00
18 5 0 0 0 0.00
19 5 1 1 0 0.20
1 4 0 0 0 0.29
2 5 0 0 0 0.00
3 0 1 1 0 0.00
4 1 0 1 0 0.11
5 3 0 0 0 0.00
6 0 0 1 0 0.13
7 5 0 0 0 0.17
88
8 1 0 0 0 0.15
9 5 0 0 0 0.48
10 5 0 0 0 0.00
11 2 0 1 0 0.17
1 2 0 1 0 0.40
2 5 0 1 0 0.00
3 0 0 0 0 0.00
4 0 0 1 0 0.30
5 0 1 1 0 0.00
6 1 1 1 0 0.75
7 5 0 0 0 0.00
8 1 1 0 0 0.10
9 1 1 1 0 0.42
10 1 1 0 0 0.25
11 4 0 0 0 0.00
12 3 0 0 0 0.06
1 4 0 0 0 0.00
2 5 0 0 0 0.17
3 5 0 0 0 0.00
4 2 0 0 0 0.00
5 1 0 1 0 0.00
6 5 0 1 0 0.00
7 1 0 0 0 0.14
8 0 0 1 0 0.25
9 3 0 0 0 0.00
10 0 0 1 0 0.10
1 1 1 1 0 0.43
2 3 0 0 0 0.40
3 5 1 0 0 0.14
4 2 0 0 0 0.00
5 0 0 1 0 0.22
6 5 1 0 0 0.40
7 1 1 1 0 0.10
8 5 1 0 0 0.17
9 0 1 1 0 0.40
89
10 5 0 0 0 0.17
11 5 1 1 0 0.50
12 5 0 0 0 0.00
13 0 1 1 0 0.33
14 4 0 0 0 0.43
15 0 0 1 0 0.11
1 1 0 1 0 0.44
2 0 0 0 0 0.60
3 2 0 0 0 0.33
4 3 0 0 0 0.13
5 4 0 0 0 0.13
1 2 0 1 0 0.60
2 3 0 0 0 0.36
3 1 0 0 0 0.20
4 1 1 0 0 0.45
5 4 0 0 0 0.10
6 0 0 1 0 0.43
1 2 0 0 0 0.67
2 5 0 0 0 0.50
3 5 1 1 0 0.69
4 4 0 0 0 0.00
5 0 0 0 0 0.40
1 4 1 0 0 0.50
2 3 0 0 0 0.30
3 5 0 0 0 1.00
4 0 1 1 0 0.00
5 5 0 0 0 0.57
6 2 1 1 0 0.77
7 1 1 1 0 0.27
1 1 0 0 0 0.40
2 4 1 0 0 0.25
3 2 0 0 0 0.00
4 5 0 0 0 0.00
5 5 0 0 0 0.45
6 1 1 1 0 0.00
90
7 3 0 0 0 0.00
8 2 0 1 0 0.06
9 5 0 0 0 1.00
10 1 0 0 0 0.07
11 0 1 1 0 0.00
1 0 1 1 0 0.43
2 3 0 0 0 0.31
3 4 0 0 0 0.00
4 2 0 0 0 0.00
5 1 1 1 0 0.20
6 5 0 0 0 0.00
1 0 0 0 0 0.57
2 1 1 0 0 0.72
3 2 0 0 0 0.62
4 4 0 1 0 0.40
5 5 0 0 0 0.86
1 2 0 1 0 0.67
2 1 1 0 0 0.82
91
92
1 1 5 0 0 1 0.00
1 2 5 0 0 1 0.14
1 3 5 0 0 1 0.00
1 4 0 1 1 1 0.00
1 5 5 0 0 1 0.00
1 6 2 1 0 1 0.00
1 7 2 1 1 1 0.08
1 8 1 1 1 1 0.32
1 9 3 1 0 1 0.00
1 10 5 0 0 1 0.00
1 11 0 1 1 1 0.00
1 12 1 1 1 1 0.00
1 13 5 0 0 1 0.00
1 14 5 0 0 1 0.00
1 15 0 0 1 1 0.00
1 16 0 0 1 1 0.00
1 17 5 0 0 1 0.00
1 18 1 0 1 1 0.50
1 19 1 0 1 1 0.00
1 20 2 1 0 1 0.00
1 21 5 0 0 1 0.00
1 22 0 0 1 1 0.40
2 1 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 2 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 3 0 1 1 1 0.00
2 4 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 5 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 6 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 7 2 1 1 1 0.00
2 8 0 1 1 1 0.00
2 9 0 1 0 1 0.00
93
2 10 0 1 0 1 0.00
2 11 1 0 1 1 0.15
2 12 2 1 1 1 0.00
2 13 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 14 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 15 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 16 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 17 2 1 0 1 0.00
2 18 1 0 1 1 0.00
2 19 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 20 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 21 1 0 1 1 0.00
2 22 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 23 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 24 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 25 1 1 0 1 0.00
2 26 5 0 1 1 0.00
2 27 3 0 1 1 0.06
2 28 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 29 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 30 0 0 1 1 0.00
1 1 0 1 0 1 0.20
1 2 0 1 1 1 0.00
1 3 1 0 1 1 0.00
1 4 1 1 1 1 0.00
1 5 5 0 0 1 0.00
1 6 5 0 0 1 0.00
1 7 3 0 0 1 0.05
1 8 2 1 1 1 0.00
1 9 0 1 1 1 0.00
1 10 2 0 1 1 0.41
1 11 3 1 1 1 0.29
1 12 5 0 0 1 0.29
1 13 1 0 0 1 0.07
1 14 0 0 1 1 0.38
94
2 1 0 1 1 1 0.19
2 2 3 0 0 1 0.30
2 3 5 0 0 1 0.11
2 4 1 1 1 1 0.33
2 5 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 6 3 1 0 1 0.50
2 7 1 1 1 1 0.30
2 8 1 0 1 1 0.56
2 9 1 0 1 1 0.10
2 10 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 11 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 12 0 0 1 1 0.42
2 13 0 1 0 1 0.17
2 14 0 0 1 1 0.00
2 15 5 1 0 1 0.40
2 16 2 1 1 1 0.00
2 17 0 0 1 1 0.17
2 18 0 0 1 1 0.00
2 19 2 1 1 1 0.09
3 1 5 0 0 1 0.00
3 2 2 1 1 1 0.00
3 3 0 1 0 1 0.00
3 4 0 1 1 1 0.17
3 5 5 0 0 1 0.00
3 6 5 0 0 1 0.00
3 7 2 1 1 1 0.61
3 8 5 0 0 1 0.00
3 9 5 0 0 1 0.00
3 10 1 1 1 1 0.00
3 11 2 1 0 1 0.00
3 12 5 0 0 1 0.00
3 13 1 1 1 1 0.08
3 14 3 0 0 1 0.40
3 15 1 0 1 1 0.20
3 16 1 0 1 1 0.25
95
3 17 5 0 0 1 0.00
3 18 0 1 1 1 0.40
3 19 5 0 0 1 0.00
3 20 0 0 1 1 0.13
1 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 5 0 0 1 0.50
3 2 1 1 1 0.25
4 5 0 0 1 0.25
5 0 1 1 1 0.18
6 5 0 0 1 0.00
7 1 1 1 1 0.17
8 1 0 1 1 0.33
9 0 1 1 1 0.17
10 5 0 0 1 0.22
11 0 0 1 1 0.00
12 3 1 1 1 0.13
13 5 0 0 1 0.38
14 5 0 0 1 0.20
15 5 0 0 1 0.50
16 5 0 0 1 0.11
17 2 1 1 1 0.25
18 1 0 0 1 0.33
1 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 3 0 0 1 0.00
3 0 0 1 1 0.13
4 5 0 0 1 0.33
5 5 0 0 1 0.33
6 1 0 1 1 0.78
7 1 1 1 1 0.20
8 0 0 0 1 0.13
9 0 0 1 1 0.43
10 1 1 1 1 0.00
11 5 0 0 1 0.09
12 2 1 1 1 0.60
13 1 1 1 1 0.29
96
14 5 0 0 1 0.36
15 0 1 0 1 0.25
16 5 0 0 1 0.17
17 1 1 1 1 0.17
18 5 0 0 1 0.56
19 5 1 1 1 0.57
20 0 1 1 1 0.41
21 0 0 1 1 0.20
22 3 0 0 1 0.09
1 1 1 1 1 0.17
2 0 1 1 1 0.30
3 3 1 0 1 0.18
4 5 0 0 1 0.20
5 2 0 1 1 0.14
6 5 0 0 1 0.00
7 1 1 1 1 0.00
8 0 1 1 1 0.25
9 5 0 0 1 0.50
10 5 0 0 1 0.33
11 0 1 1 1 0.17
12 5 0 0 1 0.29
1 0 1 1 1 0.38
2 5 0 0 1 0.17
3 0 1 1 1 0.09
4 0 1 1 1 0.20
5 5 0 0 1 0.00
6 1 0 1 1 0.17
7 1 1 0 1 0.17
8 5 0 0 1 0.00
9 2 0 0 1 0.10
10 3 0 0 1 0.30
11 1 1 1 1 0.50
12 0 1 1 1 0.20
13 1 0 0 1 0.11
14 5 0 1 1 0.25
97
15 0 0 1 1 0.55
16 5 0 0 1 0.00
1 1 0 0 1 1 0.25
1 2 2 0 1 1 0.10
1 3 3 0 1 1 0.00
1 4 0 0 1 1 0.00
1 5 1 1 0 1 0.00
1 6 5 1 0 1 0.08
1 7 5 0 0 1 0.00
1 8 5 0 0 1 0.11
1 9 0 1 1 1 0.25
1 10 5 0 0 1 0.00
1 11 5 0 0 1 0.18
1 12 5 0 0 1 0.00
1 13 1 1 1 1 0.08
1 14 1 0 0 1 0.00
2 1 0 0 1 1 0.25
2 2 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 3 0 1 1 1 0.13
2 4 2 1 1 1 0.30
2 5 3 1 1 1 0.64
2 6 5 0 0 1 0.50
2 7 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 8 1 0 1 1 0.10
2 9 5 0 0 1 0.14
2 10 0 1 0 1 0.50
2 11 5 0 0 1 0.43
1 1 1 0 1 0.00
2 0 1 1 1 0.00
3 3 0 0 1 0.17
4 5 0 0 1 0.33
5 1 1 1 1 0.00
6 0 1 1 1 0.00
7 2 1 1 1 0.29
8 5 0 0 1 0.11
98
9 2 1 1 1 0.00
10 3 1 0 1 0.50
11 0 1 1 1 0.00
12 1 0 1 1 0.25
13 0 0 1 1 0.40
14 5 0 0 1 0.32
15 5 0 0 1 0.10
16 0 0 1 1 0.00
1 0 1 1 0 0.63
2 1 0 1 0 0.20
3 2 1 0 0 0.11
4 0 1 1 0 0.25
1 1 0 1 0 0.21
2 0 1 1 0 0.00
3 0 1 0 0 0.00
4 3 0 0 0 0.00
5 1 1 1 0 0.11
6 1 1 1 0 0.25
7 2 1 1 0 0.08
8 5 0 0 0 0.00
9 2 1 1 0 0.00
10 5 1 0 0 0.08
11 0 1 1 0 0.30
12 0 0 0 0 0.20
13 5 0 0 0 0.00
14 1 1 1 0 0.22
15 0 0 1 0 0.10
16 5 0 0 0 0.00
17 3 1 1 0 0.00
18 1 0 0 0 0.10
19 0 1 1 0 0.50
20 5 0 0 0 0.00
21 0 1 0 0 0.00
22 1 0 1 0 0.40
23 2 0 0 0 0.00
99
24 5 0 0 0 0.13
25 5 0 0 0 0.00
26 5 0 0 0 0.00
27 5 0 0 0 0.00
28 1 1 1 0 0.00
1 2 0 0 0 0.00
2 0 0 1 0 0.30
3 0 1 0 0 0.64
4 1 1 1 0 0.00
5 1 0 1 0 0.17
1 0 0 0 0 0.17
2 5 0 0 0 0.33
3 5 0 0 0 0.17
4 0 1 1 0 1.00
5 5 0 0 0 0.00
6 2 1 1 0 0.09
7 5 0 0 0 0.00
8 3 0 0 0 0.13
9 1 1 1 0 0.08
10 1 1 1 0 0.44
1 0 1 1 0 0.50
2 0 1 1 0 0.08
3 1 0 1 0 0.00
4 1 1 1 0 0.00
5 2 1 0 0 0.00
6 0 0 0 0 0.40
7 0 1 1 0 0.25
8 0 1 0 0 0.10
9 1 0 0 0 0.30
10 2 0 1 0 0.25
11 1 0 1 0 0.42
12 5 0 0 0 0.00
13 3 0 0 0 0.50
14 5 0 0 0 0.20
15 1 1 1 0 0.08
100
16 5 1 1 0 0.08
17 5 0 1 0 0.19
18 5 0 0 0 0.13
19 5 0 0 0 0.00
1 3 0 0 0 0.08
2 5 0 0 0 0.10
3 1 1 1 0 0.13
4 5 0 0 0 0.23
5 5 0 0 0 0.00
6 5 0 0 0 0.08
7 0 1 1 0 0.14
8 2 1 1 0 0.07
9 5 0 0 0 0.18
10 0 0 1 0 0.13
11 5 0 0 0 0.00
1 2 1 0 0 0.22
2 5 0 0 0 0.00
3 0 0 1 0 0.27
4 0 1 0 0 0.08
5 5 1 0 0 0.12
6 1 1 1 0 0.30
7 5 0 0 0 0.00
8 5 0 1 0 0.00
9 5 0 0 0 0.00
10 0 0 1 0 0.00
11 1 0 0 0 0.00
12 5 0 0 0 0.29
13 5 0 0 0 0.00
14 1 0 1 0 0.06
15 5 0 0 0 0.00
16 5 0 0 0 0.00
17 5 0 0 0 0.00
18 3 0 1 0 0.23
1 3 0 0 0 0.00
2 0 1 1 0 0.14
101
3 5 1 0 0 0.00
4 1 0 0 0 0.31
5 2 0 0 0 0.00
6 0 1 1 0 0.20
7 1 0 0 0 0.00
8 5 0 0 0 0.11
9 0 0 1 0 0.00
10 5 0 0 0 0.08
11 1 0 1 0 0.60
1 2 0 0 0 0.36
2 0 1 0 0 0.00
3 0 1 1 0 0.00
4 1 0 1 0 0.10
5 5 1 1 0 0.50
6 5 0 0 0 0.17
7 0 0 1 0 0.17
8 1 1 1 0 0.40
9 3 0 0 0 0.21
10 5 0 0 0 0.14
11 0 1 1 0 0.50
1 1 1 1 0 0.67
2 0 0 0 0 0.73
3 5 0 0 0 0.00
1 5 0 0 0 0.29
2 5 0 0 0 0.44
3 2 1 1 0 0.33
4 0 1 1 0 0.67
5 3 0 0 0 0.42
6 5 0 0 0 0.67
1 0 0 0 0 1.00
2 5 0 0 0 0.71
3 5 1 1 0 0.45
1 0 1 1 0 0.50
2 1 1 1 0 0.78
3 2 0 1 0 0.33
102
4 5 0 0 0 0.20
5 3 0 0 0 0.09
1 5 0 0 0 0.08
2 1 0 1 0 0.45
3 3 0 0 0 0.43
4 5 0 0 0 0.33
5 5 0 0 0 0.25
6 0 1 1 0 0.00
7 5 0 0 0 0.00
8 5 0 0 0 0.25
9 2 1 1 0 0.00
1 3 0 0 0 0.00
2 0 1 1 0 0.20
3 1 1 1 0 0.11
4 5 0 0 0 0.00
1 5 0 0 0 0.70
2 4 1 1 0 0.00
3 0 0 0 0 0.33
4 5 0 0 0 0.50
1 5 0 1 0 0.75
2 2 1 0 0 0.83
3 0 0 0 0 0.69
103
104
1 1 5 0 0 1 0.00
1 2 0 1 0 1 0.80
1 3 1 1 1 1 0.17
1 4 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 1 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 2 1 1 1 1 0.90
2 3 0 1 0 1 0.50
3 1 1 1 1 1 0.17
3 2 5 0 0 1 0.00
3 3 3 0 0 1 0.00
3 4 5 0 0 1 0.00
3 5 0 1 0 1 0.21
4 1 5 0 0 1 0.00
4 2 5 0 0 1 0.00
4 3 1 1 1 1 0.56
4 4 5 0 0 1 0.00
4 5 5 0 0 1 0.00
4 6 0 1 0 1 0.60
5 1 5 0 0 1 0.00
5 2 5 0 0 1 0.00
5 3 5 0 0 1 0.00
5 4 1 1 1 1 0.05
5 5 5 0 0 1 0.00
5 6 0 0 0 1 0.08
6 1 5 0 0 1 0.00
6 2 1 1 1 1 0.00
6 3 5 0 0 1 0.00
6 4 5 0 0 1 0.00
6 5 0 0 0 1 0.40
6 6 5 0 0 1 0.00
6 7 5 0 0 1 0.00
105
6 8 5 0 0 1 0.00
7 1 3 0 0 1 0.17
7 2 5 0 0 1 0.00
7 3 5 0 0 1 0.11
7 4 5 0 0 1 0.57
7 5 1 1 1 1 0.29
7 6 0 0 0 1 0.17
7 7 5 0 0 1 0.00
8 1 5 0 0 1 0.00
8 2 5 0 0 1 0.00
8 3 0 0 0 1 0.00
8 4 1 1 1 1 0.38
8 5 5 0 0 1 0.00
8 6 5 0 0 1 0.00
8 7 5 0 0 1 0.00
1 1 5 0 0 1 0.00
1 2 3 0 0 1 0.31
1 3 5 0 0 1 0.00
1 4 1 1 1 1 0.60
1 5 0 1 0 1 0.52
1 6 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 1 3 1 0 1 0.00
2 2 0 1 1 1 0.20
2 3 1 1 0 1 0.73
2 4 5 0 0 1 0.86
3 1 1 1 0 1 1.00
3 2 5 0 0 1 0.17
3 3 0 0 1 1 0.40
3 4 3 0 0 1 0.38
3 5 5 0 0 1 0.00
4 1 1 1 1 1 0.21
4 2 3 0 0 1 0.48
4 3 0 1 0 1 0.30
4 4 5 0 0 1 0.00
5 1 5 0 0 1 0.00
106
5 2 5 0 0 1 0.05
5 3 5 0 0 1 0.00
5 4 1 1 1 1 0.32
5 5 0 1 0 1 0.60
6 1 0 1 0 1 0.00
6 2 1 1 1 1 0.13
6 3 5 0 0 1 0.00
7 1 0 1 0 1 0.23
7 2 5 0 0 1 0.00
7 3 3 0 0 1 0.13
7 4 1 1 1 1 0.45
8 1 1 1 1 1 0.38
8 2 5 0 0 1 0.00
8 3 0 1 0 1 0.50
9 1 5 0 0 1 0.00
9 2 3 0 0 1 0.20
9 3 5 0 0 1 0.69
9 4 1 1 1 1 0.19
10 1 1 0 1 1 0.59
10 2 5 0 0 1 0.00
10 3 0 0 0 1 0.29
11 1 5 0 0 1 0.18
11 2 0 0 0 1 0.40
11 3 5 0 0 1 0.00
11 4 5 0 0 1 0.00
11 5 1 1 1 1 0.36
12 1 0 1 0 1 0.75
12 2 5 0 0 1 0.14
12 3 5 0 0 1 0.11
12 4 1 1 1 1 0.56
1 1 0 0 0 1 0.50
1 2 1 1 1 1 0.44
2 1 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 2 5 1 0 1 0.29
2 3 0 1 0 1 0.36
107
2 4 1 1 1 1 0.20
3 1 5 0 0 1 0.00
3 2 0 1 0 1 0.14
3 3 5 0 0 1 0.00
3 4 5 0 0 1 0.00
3 5 1 1 1 1 0.64
1 1 0 1 0 1 0.21
1 2 1 1 1 1 0.00
2 1 5 0 0 1 0.14
2 2 0 0 0 1 0.63
2 3 5 1 1 1 0.00
3 1 1 1 1 1 0.54
3 2 0 0 0 1 0.42
4 1 3 0 0 1 0.38
4 2 1 1 1 1 0.23
5 1 1 1 1 1 0.50
5 2 0 1 0 1 1.00
1 1 0 0 1 1 0.15
1 2 1 1 0 1 0.50
2 1 1 1 0 1 0.50
2 2 0 1 1 1 0.15
1 1 0 1 1 1 0.13
1 2 5 0 0 1 0.00
1 3 1 1 0 1 0.33
2 1 5 1 0 1 0.17
2 2 0 1 1 1 0.16
3 1 1 0 0 1 0.25
3 2 0 1 1 1 0.63
1 1 1 1 1 1 0.50
1 2 0 0 0 1 0.67
1 3 5 0 0 1 0.15
2 1 1 1 0 1 0.65
2 2 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 3 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 4 5 0 0 1 0.00
108
2 5 0 1 1 1 0.30
3 1 5 0 0 1 0.00
3 2 1 1 1 1 0.47
3 3 0 1 0 1 0.58
3 4 5 0 0 1 0.00
3 5 5 1 0 1 0.09
3 6 5 0 0 1 0.00
4 1 0 1 0 1 0.38
4 2 5 0 0 1 0.10
4 3 5 0 0 1 0.00
4 4 5 0 0 1 0.00
4 5 1 1 1 1 0.30
5 1 0 1 1 1 0.40
5 2 5 0 0 1 0.00
5 3 5 0 0 1 0.18
5 4 5 0 0 1 0.00
5 5 5 0 0 1 0.00
5 6 1 0 0 1 0.00
1 1 1 1 1 1 0.13
1 2 5 0 0 1 0.00
1 3 0 1 0 1 0.00
2 1 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 2 0 0 0 1 0.00
2 3 1 1 1 1 0.80
3 1 0 1 1 1 0.40
3 2 5 0 0 1 0.00
3 3 1 1 0 1 0.47
3 4 5 0 0 1 0.17
3 5 5 0 0 1 0.00
3 6 5 0 0 1 0.75
4 1 5 0 0 1 0.00
4 2 3 0 0 1 0.18
4 3 5 0 0 1 0.07
4 4 5 0 0 1 0.00
4 5 0 1 0 1 0.33
109
4 6 1 0 1 1 0.50
1 0 1 0 0 0.28
2 1 1 1 0 0.47
3 5 0 0 0 0.56
1 1 1 1 1 0 0.50
1 2 5 0 0 0 0.00
1 3 0 1 0 0 0.41
1 4 5 0 0 0 0.00
2 1 0 1 0 0 0.06
2 2 1 0 1 0 0.43
2 3 5 0 0 0 0.00
3 1 1 1 1 0 0.57
3 2 0 1 0 0 0.58
3 3 5 0 0 0 0.00
4 1 1 1 1 0 0.40
4 2 0 1 0 0 0.25
4 3 5 0 0 0 0.00
5 1 5 0 0 0 0.00
5 2 5 0 0 0 0.00
5 3 1 1 1 0 0.12
5 4 0 0 0 0 0.00
6 1 3 0 0 0 0.00
6 2 0 0 0 0 0.40
6 3 1 1 1 0 0.00
1 5 0 0 0 0.17
2 5 0 0 0 0.00
3 1 1 1 0 0.13
1 1 0 1 0 0 0.20
1 2 1 0 1 0 0.17
2 1 1 1 0 0 0.13
2 2 5 0 0 0 0.00
2 3 5 0 0 0 0.00
2 4 0 0 0 0 0.00
2 5 5 0 0 0 0.00
2 6 1 1 1 0 0.17
110
1 1 1 1 1 0 0.55
1 2 0 0 0 0 0.44
1 3 5 1 0 0 0.15
2 1 0 1 0 0 0.80
2 2 1 1 1 0 0.00
2 3 3 0 0 0 0.20
3 1 1 0 1 0 0.00
3 2 5 1 0 0 0.24
3 3 0 1 0 0 0.17
4 1 5 1 0 0 0.17
4 2 5 0 0 0 0.61
4 3 0 1 0 0 0.42
4 4 1 0 1 0 0.25
1 1 1 1 1 0 0.23
1 2 0 1 0 0 0.17
2 1 1 0 1 0 0.44
2 2 0 1 0 0 0.38
2 3 5 0 0 0 0.00
1 1 5 0 0 0 0.40
1 2 5 0 0 0 0.28
1 3 1 0 1 0 0.20
1 4 0 1 0 0 0.45
2 1 5 1 0 0 0.38
2 2 1 1 1 0 0.20
2 3 5 0 0 0 0.00
2 4 5 0 0 0 0.00
2 5 5 0 0 0 0.00
2 6 0 0 0 0 0.13
1 1 0 1 0 0 0.35
1 2 1 1 1 0 0.14
2 1 0 1 1 0 0.50
2 2 5 0 0 0 0.00
2 3 1 0 0 0 0.40
1 1 5 0 0 0 0.00
1 2 5 0 0 0 0.00
111
1 3 5 1 0 0 0.50
1 4 5 0 0 0 0.22
1 5 0 0 1 0 0.00
1 6 5 0 0 0 0.00
2 1 0 0 0 0 0.50
2 2 1 0 1 0 0.00
3 1 0 1 1 0 0.20
3 2 1 0 0 0 0.16
3 3 5 0 0 0 0.44
1 5 0 0 0 0.33
2 1 1 1 0 0.63
3 5 0 0 0 0.00
1 5 0 0 0 1.00
2 0 1 0 0 0.06
3 1 1 1 0 0.50
4 5 0 0 0 0.00
5 5 0 0 0 0.00
6 5 0 0 0 1.00
1 5 0 0 0 0.67
2 5 0 0 0 0.00
3 0 0 0 0 0.40
4 5 1 1 0 0.00
1 0 0 0 0 0.38
2 5 0 0 0 0.00
3 5 0 0 0 0.17
4 1 1 1 0 0.67
1 1 1 1 0 0.33
2 0 0 0 0 0.17
3 5 0 0 0 0.45
1 3 0 0 0 0.00
2 1 1 1 0 0.30
3 0 1 0 0 0.08
4 5 0 0 0 0.00
1 5 0 1 0 0.80
2 5 0 0 0 0.65
112
3 5 0 0 0 0.14
4 5 0 0 0 0.57
5 0 0 0 0 0.44
6 1 1 0 0 0.67
1 0 0 0 0 1.00
2 2 1 0 0 0.45
3 1 1 1 0 0.90
113
114
1 1 5 0 0 1 0.00
1 2 5 0 0 1 0.14
1 3 5 0 0 1 0.00
1 4 1 1 1 1 0.54
1 5 0 0 0 1 0.63
2 1 1 1 0 1 0.20
2 2 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 3 0 0 1 1 0.29
2 4 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 5 5 0 0 1 0.00
3 1 0 0 0 1 0.00
3 2 5 0 0 1 0.00
3 3 1 1 1 1 0.10
4 1 5 0 0 1 0.00
4 2 2 0 0 1 0.13
4 3 0 0 0 1 0.54
4 4 1 1 1 1 0.91
5 1 5 0 0 1 0.00
5 2 5 0 0 1 0.00
5 3 5 0 0 1 0.00
5 4 0 0 0 1 0.00
5 5 5 0 0 1 0.00
5 6 5 0 0 1 0.00
5 7 1 1 1 1 0.17
6 1 5 0 0 1 0.00
6 2 5 0 0 1 0.00
6 3 2 0 0 1 0.21
6 4 5 0 0 1 0.80
6 5 5 0 0 1 0.00
6 6 5 0 0 1 0.00
6 7 0 0 0 1 0.80
115
6 8 1 1 1 1 0.00
6 9 5 0 0 1 0.00
7 1 5 0 0 1 0.17
7 2 5 0 0 1 0.00
7 3 5 0 0 1 0.00
7 4 5 0 0 1 0.09
7 5 1 1 1 1 0.10
8 1 0 0 0 1 0.25
8 2 5 0 0 1 0.00
8 3 2 0 0 1 0.00
8 4 5 0 0 1 0.00
8 5 1 1 1 1 0.25
1 1 0 0 0 1 0.48
1 2 2 0 0 1 0.25
1 3 5 0 0 1 0.00
1 4 1 1 1 1 0.50
2 1 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 2 1 0 0 1 0.70
2 3 0 1 1 1 0.00
2 4 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 5 5 0 0 1 0.00
3 1 1 0 0 1 0.44
3 2 5 0 0 1 0.00
3 3 0 0 1 1 0.44
3 4 5 0 0 1 0.11
4 1 5 0 0 1 0.30
4 2 0 0 0 1 0.67
4 3 1 1 1 1 0.50
4 4 5 0 0 1 0.25
5 1 1 1 1 1 0.73
5 2 5 0 0 1 0.00
5 3 0 0 0 1 0.73
5 4 5 0 0 1 0.25
6 1 1 1 1 1 0.29
6 2 0 0 0 1 0.17
116
6 3 5 0 0 1 0.00
7 1 1 0 1 1 1.00
7 2 0 0 0 1 0.42
7 3 5 0 0 1 0.33
8 1 5 0 0 1 0.00
8 2 1 1 1 1 0.39
8 3 5 0 0 1 0.00
8 4 0 0 0 1 0.39
9 1 0 0 0 1 0.57
9 2 5 0 0 1 0.75
9 3 1 1 1 1 0.50
9 4 5 0 0 1 0.00
10 1 5 0 0 1 0.13
10 2 0 0 0 1 0.78
10 3 1 1 1 1 0.73
10 4 5 0 0 1 0.00
10 5 5 0 0 1 0.40
11 1 0 0 0 1 0.50
11 2 1 1 1 1 0.33
12 1 1 1 1 1 0.83
12 2 0 0 0 1 0.75
12 3 5 0 0 1 0.20
12 4 5 0 0 1 0.78
1 1 1 0 0 1 0.40
1 2 5 0 0 1 0.00
1 3 0 0 1 1 0.50
2 1 0 0 0 1 0.08
2 2 5 1 1 1 0.17
3 1 0 0 0 1 0.13
3 2 5 0 0 1 0.73
3 3 1 1 1 1 0.71
4 1 0 0 0 1 0.42
4 2 1 1 1 1 0.40
4 3 5 0 0 1 0.00
4 4 5 0 0 1 0.00
117
5 1 1 1 1 1 0.08
5 2 5 0 0 1 0.00
5 3 0 0 0 1 0.08
6 1 1 1 0 1 0.00
6 2 5 0 0 1 0.00
6 3 5 0 0 1 0.11
6 4 0 0 1 1 0.50
6 5 5 0 0 1 0.00
6 6 5 0 0 1 0.38
6 7 5 0 0 1 0.48
7 1 0 0 1 1 0.36
7 2 1 0 0 1 0.70
7 3 2 0 0 1 0.33
7 4 5 0 0 1 0.00
8 1 0 0 0 1 0.67
8 2 5 0 0 1 0.20
8 3 5 0 0 1 0.75
8 4 2 0 0 1 0.31
8 5 1 0 1 1 0.50
1 1 0 1 1 1 0.05
1 2 2 0 0 1 0.22
1 3 1 0 0 1 0.61
2 1 0 1 1 1 0.00
2 2 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 3 5 0 0 1 0.00
2 4 1 0 0 1 0.40
3 1 1 0 0 1 1.00
3 2 0 1 1 1 0.31
3 3 5 0 0 1 0.00
4 1 1 0 0 1 0.91
4 2 0 1 1 1 0.55
5 1 5 0 0 1 0.00
5 2 0 0 1 1 0.00
5 3 1 0 0 1 0.33
1 1 0 0 1 1 0.00
118
1 2 1 1 0 1 0.38
2 1 0 0 1 1 0.45
2 2 5 0 0 1 0.15
2 3 1 1 0 1 0.78
3 1 0 0 0 1 0.44
3 2 2 0 0 1 0.29
3 3 5 0 0 1 0.17
3 4 1 1 1 1 0.50
4 1 5 0 0 1 0.17
4 2 0 1 1 1 0.00
4 3 1 0 0 1 0.55
5 1 5 0 0 1 0.00
5 2 5 0 0 1 0.00
5 3 1 0 0 1 0.33
5 4 0 1 1 1 0.47
6 1 1 1 0 1 0.55
6 2 0 0 1 1 0.25
7 1 1 0 0 1 0.50
7 2 5 0 0 1 0.00
7 3 0 0 1 1 0.25
7 4 5 0 0 1 0.00
8 1 5 0 0 1 0.30
8 2 5 0 0 1 0.33
8 3 5 0 0 1 0.25
8 4 0 0 1 1 0.00
8 5 1 1 0 1 0.27
9 1 5 0 0 1 0.13
9 2 5 0 0 1 0.00
9 3 0 1 0 1 0.43
9 4 1 0 1 1 0.08
9 5 5 0 0 1 0.33
1 1 1 0 0 0.35
2 0 0 1 0 0.38
1 1 0 0 0 0 0.48
1 2 1 1 1 0 0.40
119
2 1 1 0 1 0 0.62
2 2 0 1 0 0 0.27
3 1 1 0 1 0 0.50
3 2 5 0 0 0 0.00
3 3 0 1 0 0 0.30
3 4 2 0 0 0 0.67
4 1 5 0 0 0 0.00
4 2 5 0 0 0 0.00
4 3 0 0 0 0 0.40
4 4 1 1 1 0 0.38
5 1 5 0 0 0 0.00
5 2 5 0 0 0 0.00
5 3 5 0 0 0 0.18
5 4 5 0 0 0 0.43
5 5 1 0 1 0 0.70
5 6 5 0 0 0 0.00
5 7 0 0 0 0 0.44
6 1 5 0 0 0 0.00
6 2 1 1 1 0 0.75
6 3 5 0 0 0 0.38
1 5 0 0 0 0.00
2 0 1 0 0 0.29
3 1 0 1 0 0.39
4 5 0 0 0 0.00
1 1 1 0 1 0 0.11
1 2 5 0 0 0 0.00
1 3 0 0 0 0 0.82
1 4 5 0 0 0 0.00
2 1 0 0 0 0 0.39
2 2 1 1 1 0 0.18
1 1 0 0 0 0 0.12
1 2 5 0 0 0 0.67
1 3 5 0 0 0 0.50
1 4 1 0 1 0 0.31
2 1 0 0 0 0 0.19
120
2 2 1 1 1 0 0.00
3 1 1 1 1 0 0.00
3 2 0 0 0 0 0.00
4 1 1 1 0 0 0.25
4 2 0 0 1 0 0.38
1 1 0 0 0 0 0.00
1 2 1 1 1 0 0.25
1 3 5 0 0 0 0.00
2 1 0 0 0 0 0.08
2 2 1 0 1 0 0.74
1 1 0 0 0 0 0.45
1 2 1 1 1 0 0.20
2 1 1 0 0 0 0.30
2 2 5 0 0 0 0.11
2 3 0 1 1 0 0.21
1 1 0 0 0 0 0.50
1 2 1 1 1 0 0.50
2 1 0 1 1 0 0.70
2 2 1 0 0 0 0.00
1 1 5 0 0 0 0.00
1 2 0 1 1 0 0.12
1 3 5 0 0 0 0.33
1 4 1 0 0 0 0.67
2 1 0 0 0 0 0.20
2 2 1 1 1 0 0.83
3 1 1 0 0 0 0.45
3 2 0 1 1 0 0.22
3 3 5 0 0 0 0.00
1 5 0 0 0 0.00
2 5 0 0 0 0.25
3 5 0 0 0 0.50
4 1 0 0 0 0.94
5 0 0 1 0 0.57
1 1 1 1 0 0.89
2 5 0 0 0 0.38
121
3 0 0 0 0 0.67
4 5 0 0 0 0.91
1 5 1 0 0 0.10
2 0 0 1 0 0.41
1 0 0 0 0 1.00
2 5 0 0 0 0.08
3 1 1 1 0 0.42
4 5 0 0 0 0.88
5 5 0 0 0 0.00
1 5 0 0 0 0.17
2 5 0 0 0 0.38
3 1 1 1 0 0.57
4 5 0 0 0 0.40
5 0 0 0 0 0.77
6 5 0 0 0 0.00
1 5 0 0 0 0.11
2 1 1 0 0 0.30
3 0 0 1 0 0.00
1 2 1 0 0 0.75
2 4 0 0 0 0.70
3 5 0 0 0 0.38
4 5 0 0 0 0.00
5 1 0 1 0 0.88
1 5 0 1 0 0.50
2 1 1 0 0 1.00
3 5 0 0 0 0.61
122
2008
2008
Earl Babbie 2006
2010 SPSS(PASW)
2008
Chaba Frankfort-Nachmias David Nachmias

2003
1994
1998
1998
61-90
123
2002 SNTV
45-60
2008
37-66
2001
95-115
2011
181-217
2000
37-73
2005 -
01-40
2006
63-86
1999
83-126
2002
37-76
2012
19 2
129-158
2010
http://www.faps.org.tw/issues/subject.aspx?pk=96
2010 2008
03-53
124
1999 1998
NSC 88-2414-H-004-015
2012 11
http://www.moi.gov.tw/dca/02place_001.aspx
2007
http://politic.thu.edu.tw/95/document/A2-2.pdf
2007
http://homepage.ntu.edu.tw/~ntuvpadmin/records/960323/960323
_txt.pdf
http://search.cna.com.tw/NewsSearch.aspx
http://kmw.ctgin.com/
http://news.pts.org.tw/
http://news.cts.com.tw/
http://udndata.com/library/
125
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first past the

20% 22% 12%

1352 ( 434 368

15 Chaba Frankfort-Nachmias David Nachmias 2003

Maurice Duverger Duverger's law

37 A. Binder, and BertA.

(mixed and hybrid systems)

Duverger's law SNTV

45 -Party System and Duverger's Law: An Essay on the History of

Shugart and Wattenberg48

1995 Carey Shugart

Legislative Sudies Quarterly. Vol.8, pp.457-467.

5 .000*** .000*** .000***

115 83 183 15 167 26 5

57.7% 42.3% 94.2% 5.8% 82.7% 16.7% 0.6%

25.5% 74.5% 90.8% 9.2% 76.5% 21.4% 2.0%

31.6% 68.4% 89.5% 10.5% 76.8% 23.2% 0.0%

10.5% 89.5% 42.1% 57.9% 15.8% 52.6% 31.6%

58.1% 41.9% 92.4% 7.6% 84.3% 13.1% 2.5%

57.7% 42.3% 94.2% 5.8% 82.7% 16.7% 0.6%

35.1% 64.9% 91.5% 8.5% 80.9% 14.9% 4.3%

25.5% 74.5% 90.8% 9.2% 76.5% 21.4% 2.0%

27.6% 72.4% 84.5% 15.5% 65.5% 31.0% 3.4%

26.3% 73.7% 78.9% 21.1% 56.1% 33.3% 10.5%

28.6% 71.4% 95.8% 4.2% 74.8% 23.5% 1.7%

31.6% 68.4% 89.5% 10.5% 76.8% 23.2% 0.0%

39.2% 60.8% 82.4% 17.6% 64.9% 32.4% 2.7%

28.6% 71.4% 77.8% 22.2% 54.0% 38.1% 7.9%

4.3% 95.7% 52.5% 47.8% 21.7% 65.2% 13.0%

58.1% 41.9% 92.4% 7.6% 84.3% 13.1% 2.5%

57.7% 42.3% 94.2% 5.8% 82.7% 16.7% 0.6%

10.5% 89.5% 42.1% 57.9% 15.8% 52.6% 31.6%

a.Pearson a.Pearson a.Pearson ( )

44.2% 55.8% 82.9% 17.1% 67.4% 27.9% 4.7%

( 283 ) 39.2% 60.8% 82.4% 17.6% 64.9% 32.4% 2.7%

22.7% 77.3% 50.0% 50.0% 31.8% 45.5% 22.7%

a.Pearson a.Pearson a.Pearson ( )

37.5% 62.5% 75.8% 24.2% 57.0% 28.9% 14.1%

( 267 ) 28.6% 71.4% 77.8% 22.2% 54.0% 38.1% 7.9%

10.5% 89.5% 36.8% 63.2% 21.1% 42.1% 36.8%

a.Pearson a.Pearson a.Pearson ( )

2001 2012 2010

5 .000*** .000*** .000***

29.9% 70.1% 84.4% 15.6% 64.1% 31.1% 4.8%

32.5% 67.5% 85.7% 14.3% 72.1% 22.7% 5.2%

31.5% 68.5% 80.2% 19.8% 59.5% 35.1% 5.4%

24.0% 76.0% 70.0% 30.0% 45.0% 39.0% 16.0%

29.9% 70.1% 84.4% 15.6% 64.1% 31.1% 4.8%

49.8% 50.2% 95.1% 4.9% 86.1% 11.6% 2.2%

45.3% 54.7% 92.1% 7.9% 79.0% 20.6% 0.5%

41.9% 58.1% 80.8% 19.2% 66.3% 28.5% 5.2%

35.3% 64.7% 76.6% 23.4% 58.7% 29.3.% 12.0%

71 1998 2000 2005

76 ote: a Rank Ordering

5 .000*** .493* .050*

38.3% 61.7% 93.8% 6.2% 74.1% 25.9% 0.0%

38.3% 61.7% 93.8% 6.2% 74.1% 25.9% 0.0%

31.1% 68.9% 85.6% 14.4% 71.1% 25.6% 3.3%

22.5% 77.5% 89.9% 10.1% 75.3% 18.0% 1.4%

28.6% 71.4% 90.0% 10.0% 71.4% 25.7% 2.9%

10.0% 90.0% 65.7% 34.3% 41.4% 51.4% 1.8%

5 .000* .000* .000***

5 .000* .000* .000***