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South Indian Bank
South Indian Bank
ACCUMULATE
CMP Target Price
% chg (qoq) 26.2 16.2 15.1 2QFY11 197 125 76 % chg (yoy) 31.1 33.3 24.4
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
For 2QFY2012, South Indian Bank (SIB) reported healthy net profit growth of 24.4% yoy (15.1% qoq) to `95cr, better than our (`83cr) and street estimates (`88cr). NIM expansion coupled with lower slippages was the key highlight of the results. We maintain our Accumulate recommendation on the stock. Healthy NIM expansion with improving asset quality: During 2QFY2012, the banks business growth moderated in-line with overall industry trends; however, it remained comfortably ahead of the industry. Advances grew by 3.9% qoq vis--vis marginal 0.2% growth for the industry (up to September 23, 2011). Deposits showed traction, rising by 4.5% qoq as compared to 0.8% growth for the industry. CASA deposits grew by relatively lower 3.5% qoq, leading to a marginal 20bp qoq compression in CASA ratio to 21.3% (down from 23.9% in 2QFY2011). With the pass-through of higher interest rates and a larger share of higher-yielding gold loans, the bank was able to improve its yield on advances further by 36bp qoq and 150bp yoy to 12.1% (for 1HFY2012). With wholesale funding costs remaining largely stable, the banks cost of deposits went up only marginally (6bp qoq), leading to a healthy ~50bp qoq expansion in calculated NIM for 2QFY2012. Asset quality was also largely stable during 2QFY2012, with absolute gross and net NPAs declining by 2.5% and 8.2% qoq, respectively, and provision coverage ratio excluding technical write-offs improving to 74.7%. Slippages surprised positively, coming in at just 0.5% (annualized) vis--vis 0.8% in 1QFY2012 in spite of deterioration in the economic growth outlook. Outlook and valuation: SIB plans to raise ~`1,000cr in FY2012, which will enable it to maintain its strong growth, especially in its gold loan business. Currently, the stock is trading at moderate valuations of 1.1x FY13E ABV. In light of capital raising and strong expansion plans, we value the bank at 1.2x FY2013E ABV and maintain our Accumulate view on the stock with a target price of `24.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 9.6 38.8 51.6
3m (8.3) (3.9)
Key financials
Particulars (` cr) NII % chg Net profit % chg NIM (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
FY2010 568 8.7 234 20.0 2.5 2.1 11.2 1.8 1.0 17.0
FY2011 791 39.2 293 25.1 2.8 2.6 9.0 1.6 1.0 18.5
FY2012E 991 25.3 379 29.7 2.9 3.4 6.9 1.3 1.1 20.6
FY2013E 1,090 10.0 391 3.1 2.7 3.5 6.7 1.1 1.0 18.2
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com
Shrinivas Bhutda
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6845 shrinivas.bhutda@angelbroking.com
Varun Varma
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 varun.varma@angelbroking.com
2QFY12 1QFY12 % chg (qoq) 2QFY11 % chg (yoy) 877 702 152 24 618 259 53 42 7 11 35 312 146 88 58 166 24 5 11 7 1 143 48 95 33.4 769 610 144 15 564 205 52 37 9 15 27 257 113 69 44 143 21 3 4 14 0 122 40 82 32.6 14.1 15.1 5.2 62.2 9.7 26.2 2.8 13.8 (30.2) (24.1) 28.9 21.5 28.2 27.0 30.1 16.2 14.3 79.8 173.4 (46.4) 87.1 16.5 19.5 15.1 82bp 580 456 116 8 382 197 45 39 9 6 30 242 117 77 40 125 7 1 (3) 4 4 118 42 76 35.3 51.4 54.1 30.2 217.4 61.8 31.1 18.4 8.0 (22.9) 82.6 16.8 28.8 24.0 13.3 44.5 33.3 249.9 255.7 (475.2) 89.5 (86.8) 20.8 14.1 24.4 (196)bp
% chg 23.3 8.3 20.5 20.1 20.8 59.7 16.1 19.4 14.5
2QFY12 1QFY12 % chg (qoq) 2QFY11 % chg (yoy) 23,017 33,038 69.7 1,274 5,754 7,028 21.3 13.5 10.8 7.7 12.1 3.0 46.7 22,151 31,622 70.0 1,326 5,464 6,790 21.5 13.5 10.9 7.6 11.8 2.8 44.2 3.9 4.5 (38)bp (3.9) 5.3 3.5 (20)bp (3)bp (6)bp 6bp 36bp 20bp 244bp 17,718 25,060 70.7 1,091 4,888 5,979 23.9 15.9 13.1 6.3 10.6 3.0 48.5 29.9 31.8 (103)bp 16.8 17.7 17.5 (259)bp (238)bp (228)bp 132bp 150bp (3)bp (181)bp
Cost-to-income ratio
NIM for 2QFY2012. The expansion in NIM coupled with reasonable business growth led to NII beating our estimates by a comfortable 23.3%.
4.9
7.4
8.3
7.7
6.8
8.1
6.4
3.9
4.5
2.0 -
10.1
17.0 14.0
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
2QFY12 1QFY12 % chg (qoq) 2QFY11 % chg (yoy) 7 11 7 28 53 42 9 15 5 22 52 37 (30.2) (24.1) 37.2 27.3 2.9 13.9 9 6 5 26 45 39 (22.9) 82.6 47.4 11.1 18.2 7.9
228 67
254 74
230 60
236 63
231 58
75
60.0 55.0
13.1
12.3
11.3
10.9
10.8
Investment arguments
Strong business growth
The bank grew its advances and deposits at a strong rate of 27.1% and 29.2% yoy, respectively, in FY2011. Business growth has further accelerated in 2QFY2012, with advances growing by 29.9% yoy and deposits rising by 31.8% yoy. The banks gold loan portfolio has increased at an 84% CAGR over FY2009-11 to reach `4,633cr. The gold loan portfolio has continued its pace in 2QFY2012 and now constitutes ~26% of the overall loan book. The bank had indicated its plans to set up a gold loan NBFC to tap customers who are willing to pay higher interest rates in lieu of higher LTVs and faster service. For this, the bank was planning to deploy ~`300cr of the QIP proceeds towards the NBFC to capitalize on the opportunity currently being exploited by players such as Muthoot Finance and Mannapuram. However, the bank has put the gold loan NBFC plan on hold as of now, considering the uncertain regulatory environment for NBFCs. The `1,000cr QIP amounts to 59.0% of FY2011 net worth, which will provide the bank with substantial capital to maintain its strong growth. We have not factored in the impact of raising ~`1,000cr funds at present; however, if any QIP is done at the CMP, the book value as of FY2013E could see an increase of ~4.0%
Earlier estimates FY2012 19.0 15.0 21.6 2.5 6.0 7.5 15.0 1.1 0.3 FY2013 19.0 16.0 21.5 2.4 16.8 15.0 15.0 1.1 0.3
Revised estimates FY2012 22.0 15.0 21.6 2.9 7.9 18.0 28.0 1.1 0.3 FY2013 19.0 18.0 21.1 2.7 16.0 17.0 17.0 1.4 0.3
Earlier estimates
863 208 1,072 510 562 68 494 160 334
FY2012 FY2013 Revised Revised Earlier Var. (%) Var. (%) estimates estimates estimates
991 212 1,203 563 640 79 562 182 379 14.8 1.8 12.3 10.4 14.0 16.2 13.7 13.7 13.7 933 243 1,176 587 589 77 513 166 346 1,090 246 1,336 659 678 99 579 188 391 16.9 1.1 13.6 12.3 15.0 28.4 13.0 13.0 13.0
0.5x
0.8x
1.1x
1.4x
1.7x
FY2011-13E EPS CAGR (%) 20.4 18.3 29.3 24.1 15.6 18.9 8.9 (0.9) 10.6 15.2 31.8 (2.8) (14.6) 2.3 5.8 11.3 0.2 20.3 6.7 5.4 7.2 41.4 9.1 14.0 9.6 11.7 (3.2)
FY2013E RoA (%) 1.5 1.2 1.7 1.4 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.1 0.6 1.2 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.4
FY2013E RoE (%) 20.8 13.8 20.6 15.6 18.2 20.6 17.7 15.8 19.6 17.1 15.1 17.1 14.2 16.8 16.2 13.9 17.4 15.9 16.4 13.9 20.0 21.9 15.7 16.5 18.1 13.8 10.5
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), Without adjusting for SASF
Income statement
Y/E March (` cr) Net Interest Income - YoY Growth (%) Other Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Expenses - YoY Growth (%) Pre - Provision Profit - YoY Growth (%) Prov. and Cont. - YoY Growth (%) Profit Before Tax - YoY Growth (%) Prov. for Taxation - as a % of PBT PAT - YoY Growth (%) FY07 368 18.5 122 68.1 489 27.9 219 (1.4) 270 68.4 124 41.5 146 100.7 42 28.9 104 89.5 FY08 394 7.2 143 17.3 537 9.7 248 13.4 289 6.8 57 (54.0) 232 58.3 80 34.6 152 45.6 FY09 523 32.7 164 15.2 687 28.0 328 32.4 359 24.3 57 0.7 301 30.0 107 35.4 195 28.4 FY10 568 8.7 208 26.9 777 13.0 366 11.5 411 14.5 43 (24.5) 367 21.9 134 36.4 234 20.0 FY11 791 39.2 197 (5.6) 988 27.2 463 26.3 525 27.9 80 84.4 446 21.3 153 34.3 293 25.1 FY12E 991 25.3 212 7.9 1,203 21.8 563 21.7 640 21.9 79 (1.2) 562 26.1 182 32.4 379 29.7 FY13E 1,090 10.0 246 16.0 1,336 11.0 659 17.0 678 5.8 99 25.1 579 3.1 188 32.4 391 3.1
Balance sheet
Y/E March (` cr) Share Capital Reserve & Surplus Deposits - Growth (%) Borrowings Tier 2 Capital Other Liab. & Prov. Total Liabilities Cash balances Bank balances Investments Advances - Growth (%) Fixed Assets Other Assets Total Assets - Growth (%) FY07 70 654 27.8 33 174 483 700 1,246 3,430 24.3 90 268 26.1 FY08 90 1,071 23.8 28 155 590 974 729 4,572 32.0 113 249 25.2 FY09 113 1,191 19.4 257 155 571 998 1,038 6,075 13.3 136 284 19.2 FY10 113 1,372 27.2 1 330 706 1,391 597 7,156 33.6 153 415 25.3 FY11 113 1,734 29.2 25 265 962 1,828 638 8,924 29.5 357 585 28.5 FY12E 113 2,035 34,179 15.0 29 305 1,082 37,743 2,222 755 8,688 24,996 22.0 410 672 37,743 15.0 FY13E 113 2,347 40,331 18.0 34 360 1,351 44,537 2,622 891 10,001 29,746 19.0 484 794 44,537 18.0
Ratio Analysis
Y/E March Profitability ratios (%) NIMs Cost to Income ratio RoA RoE B/S ratios (%) CASA ratio Credit/Deposit ratio Net worth/ Assets CAR - Tier I Asset Quality (%) Gross NPAs Net NPAs Slippages NPA prov / avg. assets Provision Coverage Per Share Data (`) EPS ABVPS (75% cover) DPS Valuation Ratios PER (x) P/ABVPS (x) Dividend Yield DuPont Analysis NII (-) Prov. Exp. Adj NII Treasury Int. Sens. Inc. Other Inc. Op. Inc. Opex PBT Taxes RoA Leverage RoE 3.0 1.0 2.0 0.3 2.2 0.7 3.0 1.8 1.2 0.3 0.9 18.2 15.5 2.6 0.4 2.2 0.2 2.4 0.7 3.1 1.6 1.5 0.5 1.0 16.6 16.4 2.8 0.3 2.5 0.2 2.7 0.7 3.4 1.8 1.6 0.6 1.0 15.4 16.0 2.5 0.2 2.3 0.3 2.6 0.6 3.2 1.6 1.6 0.6 1.0 16.7 17.0 2.7 0.3 2.4 0.1 2.6 0.5 3.1 1.6 1.5 0.5 1.0 18.4 18.5 2.8 0.2 2.6 0.1 2.6 0.5 3.2 1.6 1.6 0.5 1.1 19.1 20.6 2.7 0.2 2.4 0.1 2.5 0.5 3.0 1.6 1.4 0.5 1.0 19.1 18.2 15.7 2.3 1.1 13.9 1.8 1.3 13.5 2.2 1.3 11.2 1.8 1.7 9.0 1.6 2.2 6.9 1.3 2.6 6.7 1.1 2.6 1.5 10.0 0.2 1.7 12.6 0.3 1.7 10.8 0.3 2.1 12.9 0.4 2.6 15.0 0.5 3.4 17.7 0.6 3.5 20.4 0.6 3.9 1.0 2.2 0.7 75.8 1.8 0.3 0.7 0.1 82.0 2.2 1.1 1.6 0.1 48.4 1.3 0.4 1.5 0.2 70.8 1.1 0.3 0.7 0.1 73.9 0.9 0.2 1.1 0.1 74.5 0.8 0.2 1.4 0.2 73.9 23.9 64.7 18.2 11.1 8.8 24.1 69.0 16.6 13.8 12.1 23.8 65.5 15.4 14.8 13.2 23.1 68.8 16.7 15.4 12.4 21.5 68.9 18.4 14.0 11.3 21.6 73.1 19.1 12.9 10.6 21.1 73.8 19.1 12.6 10.4 3.1 44.8 0.9 15.5 2.6 46.2 1.0 16.4 2.9 47.8 1.0 16.0 2.5 47.1 1.0 17.0 2.8 46.8 1.0 18.5 2.9 46.8 1.1 20.6 2.7 49.3 1.0 18.2 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E
10
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Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Ratings (Returns):
11