Stock.

Goog Date 08032021

Next
--keep goog. Now valuation okay. Its AI pace seems clumsy. But it Tensor chip promises
integrated performance edge.en:goog 12122023 from stratchery
05162022. Keep Goog. Turned practical. Copying msft?
https://stratechery.com/2022/google-i-o-near-me-competition-and-innovation-
pixel-and-fitbit/?
access_token=eyJhbGciOiJSUzI1NiIsImtpZCI6InN0cmF0ZWNoZXJ5LnBhc3Nwb3J0Lm9ubGlu
ZSIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9
Start trimming 1/2022? CEO sounded no new initiatives. Growth may be low but
steady. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-17/google-ceo-sees-company-s-
next-trillion-in-value-from-search-ai?srnd=premium&sref=IkDrJATp

Catalysts to track.
Thesis
05182023. Sequoia meeting: AI is major opp for goog. Stay put
chinese bets have to be in sync with country future policy and direction
Simple endurable insight? Edge, ….?
consensus view
my variant perspective? why right?
Inverse
04272022. En:good, Lex: lacking big ideas.
Bailee sold 072021.
Here is what Baillie Gifford has to say about Alphabet Inc. in its Q2
2021 investor letter:
"Whilst several sources of upside remain, namely in the cloud business, hardware,
and YouTube subscriptions, we have waning conviction in Alphabet's 'moonshot'
bets (such as Waymo), substantial success in which would likely be required to
produce a 5x return from here. Given the reduction in our assessment of the
probability-adjusted upside, and with strong competition for capital in the
portfolio, we therefore sold the Alphabet holding

Permanent loss?
Fraud?
Business Model challenged
Vs Government policy. China.
My mental traps
adding weight lured by tax loss switch
Core Criteria
Product services morally sustainable? EDU lesson.
Understandable?
Growth. Doing important thing?
Moat
Well-financed
Management
Margin of Safety
Valuation
Jpm.012022.
Our December 2022 price target of $3,450, up from prior $3,250, is based on 27.5x our ’23E
Alphabet GAAP EPS of $125.34, which ex-cash equates to ~24x our ’23E GAAP EPS ex-Other
Bets of $133.35. We believe Alphabet shares should trade at a premium to the S&P 500 as
Alphabet maintains a dominant position in the global online ad industry with ~1/3 share, and it is
one of the few companies in the S&P 500 with DD revenue and EPS growth off of a very large
base.

Jpm. $2793, 10262021.

We remain Overweight & our $3,250 Dec ’22 PT is based on 26.5x our ’23E Alphabet GAAP
EPS of $122.68, which ex-cash equates to ~23x our ’23E GAAP EPS ex-Other Bets of $129.80.

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