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  • HODL Project

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    Josh Li
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    This document discusses using Statcast data and neural networks to create player projections to outperform existing projections. It first explores Statcast data, then builds neural network models to predict player performance. The goal is to beat projections from RotoDB by having more accurate predictions on a holdout test set. While some tuning was attempted, more offline debugging of the models is required. Initial results show the neural network approach had a mean absolute error of 5.32 compared to 5.38 for RotoDB projections, suggesting it outperformed the existing projections.

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    This document discusses using Statcast data and neural networks to create player projections to outperform existing projections. It first explores Statcast data, then builds neural network models to predict player performance. The goal is to beat projections from RotoDB by having more accurate predictions on a holdout test set. While some tuning was attempted, more offline debugging of the models is required. Initial results show the neural network approach had a mean absolute error of 5.32 compared to 5.38 for RotoDB projections, suggesting it outperformed the existing projections.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    3 views14 pages

    HODL Project

    Uploaded by

    Josh Li
    This document discusses using Statcast data and neural networks to create player projections to outperform existing projections. It first explores Statcast data, then builds neural network models to predict player performance. The goal is to beat projections from RotoDB by having more accurate predictions on a holdout test set. While some tuning was attempted, more offline debugging of the models is required. Initial results show the neural network approach had a mean absolute error of 5.32 compared to 5.38 for RotoDB projections, suggesting it outperformed the existing projections.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    of 14

    ! (!

    #$%)
    Batting Average BA =
    '( ('$ ()$%)

    On-base Percentage

    Weighted On-base
    Average (wOBA)
    2015
    Expected Weighted On-base
    Average (xwOBA)
    Definition
    Expected Weighted On-base Average (xwOBA) is formulated using exit velocity,
    launch angle and, on certain types of batted balls, Sprint Speed.

    In the same way that each batted ball is assigned an expected batting average,
    every batted ball is given a single, double, triple and home run probability based
    on the results of comparable batted balls since Statcast was implemented Major
    League wide in 2015. For the majority of batted balls, this is achieved using
    only exit velocity and launch angle. As of 2019, "topped" or "weakly hit" balls
    also incorporate a batter's seasonal Sprint Speed.
    PREDICT NEXT GAME PERFORMANCE
    DATA
    playerId salary position rosterPosition currentTeam currentTeamId eventId homeVisitor favDog projPoints ownership actualPoints Tm Opp p_Name
    Jake
    Cronenwor San Kevin
    th 4/7/21 112984 3800 2B 1B/2B SD 4181 4929470 Home Favorite 8.44 3.86 0 San Diego Francisco Gausman
    Manny San Kevin
    Machado 4/7/21 4816 5600 3B 3B SD 4181 4929470 Home Favorite 8.42 0.96 0 San Diego Francisco Gausman
    Mitch
    Moreland 4/7/21 5370 3400 1B 1B OAK 4178 4929510 Home Dog 6.53 0 5 Oakland Los Angeles Trevor Bauer
    San Kevin
    Wil Myers 4/7/21 5470 5300 RF OF SD 4181 4929470 Home Favorite 7.42 0.48 14 San Diego Francisco Gausman
    Mark
    Canha 4/7/21 8042 4200 LF OF OAK 4178 4929510 Home Dog 7.27 0 4 Oakland Los Angeles Trevor Bauer
    Tommy San Kevin
    Pham 4/7/21 5906 3900 LF OF SD 4181 4929470 Home Favorite 8.02 0.24 0 San Diego Francisco Gausman
    Jurickson San Kevin
    Profar 4/7/21 6036 3100 LF OF SD 4181 4929470 Home Favorite 6.9 0.72 7 San Diego Francisco Gausman
    Elvis
    Andrus 4/7/21 1081 3500 SS SS OAK 4178 4929510 Home Dog 5.71 0 2 Oakland Los Angeles Trevor Bauer
    Kevin
    Newman 4/8/21 80630 3600 SS 2B/SS PIT 4180 4930120 Home Dog 7.76 0 3 Pittsburgh Chicago Jake Arrieta
    DATA
    L1_lau L1_lau L1_esti L1_esti
    L1_SL L1_OP L1_hitd nchspe nchangl matedb mated L1_wo L2_SL L2_OP L2_hitd
    L1_PA L1_H L1_2B L1_3B L1_HR L1_RBI L1_BB L1_BA G S istances ed e au wob bavalue L2_PA L2_H L2_2B L2_3B L2_HR L2_RBI L2_BB L2_BA G S istances
    104.12 73.062 0.2137 104.12
    4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.25 0.25 0.5 5 5 14.625 0.231 5 0.225 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.25 0.25 0.5 5
    4 1 0 0 0 0 1 0.333 0.333 0.833 159 89.4 6.5 0.41 0.379 0.4 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 0.333 0.333 0.833 159
    4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 125.6 70.65 24.25 0.443 0.444 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 125.6
    3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.333 0.333 0.667 106.5 77.975 -9.75 0.15 0.1405 0.3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.333 0.333 0.667 106.5
    94.933
    4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 83 3333 12 0.087 0.0815 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 83
    114.28 86.071 8.5714 114.28
    4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.25 0.25 0.5 5714 4286 2857 0.2215 0.2025 0.225 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.25 0.25 0.5 5714
    3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 183.5 83.225 31.75 0.163 0.1565 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 183.5
    113.33 83.966 113.33
    3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3333 6667 -6 0.127 0.1765 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3333
    0.1557
    4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 41.75 87.625 -12.75 0.168 5 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 41.75
    Modelling and Results Goal:To beat RotoDB projections
    Better Player Projections using STATCAST and Neural
    Networks Judge by accuracy of
    Jay Li predictions on a holdout set
    Data Exploration
    Modelling and Results Goal:To beat RotoDB projections
    Better Player Projections using STATCAST and Neural Judge by accuracy of
    Networks predictions on a holdout set
    Modelling
    Attempted Tuning,

    requires offline debugging

    Results on Test Set:


    Taking log of y variable RotoDB MAE: 5.38
    significantly improved Neural Net MAE: 5.32
    training

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