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SABR - Sabre Corporation
SABR - Sabre Corporation
Sabre Corporation (SABR) Long Term: 6-12 Months Zacks Recommendation: Neutral
(Since: 10/16/23)
$4.13 (Stock Price as of 11/03/2023)
Prior Recommendation: Outperform
Price Target (6-12 Months): $4.50
Short Term: 1-3 Months Zacks Rank: (1-5) 3-Hold
Beta 1.85
1) The data in the charts and tables, except the estimates, is as of 11/03/2023.
2) The report's text, the analyst-provided estimates, and the price target are as of 11/06/2023.
© 2023 Zacks Investment Research, All Rights Reserved 10 S. Riverside Plaza Suite 1600 · Chicago, IL 60606
Overview
Founded in December 2006, SouthLake, TX-based Sabre Corporation
provides software and technology solutions that powers the global travel
industry. The company connects leading travel suppliers, including tour
operators, airlines, rail carriers, car rentalbrands, hotels, and cruise lines,
with travel buyers in a comprehensive travel marketplace.
The company earns its revenues from transactions in the GDS, upfront or recurring fees from the Airline and Hospitality Solutions that are
available in the form of software-as-a-service (SaaS) and a hosted delivery model.
Also, the professional services related to these solutions aid in revenue generation. Additionally, the software licensing for the Airline and
Hospitality Solutions as well as maintenance of the software products are contributors to revenues. Lastly, the company also earns revenues
from display and action advertisements on the GDS, which is included in the Travel Network segment.
In 2022, the company’s revenues increased 50.2% year over year to $2.54 billion.
In the travel network space, Sabre faces fierce competition from major companies like Amedeus IT Group, Make My Trip Limited, Expedia Group,
TripAdvisor, Ctrip.com International and the likes.
As of 11/03/2023
We are encouraged by the improving trend in Sabre’s gross bookings and reservation-
system transactions. The company’s gross bookings rose 12% to 89.5 million in third-quarter 2023 and 12% year over year to 90.4 million in
second-quarter 2023. In first-quarter 2023, the company’s gross booking jumped 48.7% year-over-year to 96.6 million. During the first,
second and third quarters of 2023, the company registered year-over-year growth of 20%, 8% and 7%, respectively, in the central reservation
system transactions.
Sabre has a wide range of solutions for the travel marketplace as well as travel and hospitality suppliers. The company’s solution Sabre Red
Workspace has already been adopted by prominent travel agencies. Additionally, its Airline Solutions offerings such as Sabresonic
Reservation system, AirVision and AirCenter as well as Hospitality Solutions including SynXis (CRS) software and services have witnessed
robust growth.
Sabre has strong customer base comprising online and offline travel agencies, corporate travel departments as well as airlines of all sizes,
corporate aviation fleets, airports and hoteliers with more than 38K hotel properties across the globe. The diverse customer base apart from
adding to the top line lowers customer concentration risk. Notably, none of the customers generated more than 10% of the total revenues in
the last four fiscals, which makes the top line less susceptible to loss of any single customer. Moreover, the diversified customer base
improves visibility into company’s revenue growth trajectory.
Sabre generates part of its revenues from the Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) based offerings of its Airline and Hospitality Solutions. Notably,
the company’s collaborations with Amazon Web Services and Microsoft for the usage of the cloud infrastructure further strengthen cloud-
based deployment of the SaaS solutions. Given the growth of the SaaS industry coupled with the fact that the company caters to different
sectors of the travel industry, we believe Sabre will manage to gain a major share of the projected growth.
Sabre’s Travel Network segment is prone to pricing pressure from travel suppliers. The stiff competition in the industry increases pricing
pressure, given the availability of several alternative solution providers. Additionally, the use of direct distribution model by travel suppliers
remains a concern for Sabre as well.
Sabre has a significant debt burden. Hence, interest payments hurt profitability. A high debt position increases the risk profile of the business.
As of Sep 30, 2023, the company had a net debt balance of $4.82 billion. Moreover, debt-to-capital ratio stands at 1.22, higher than the
industry’s figure of 0.31. The weak balance sheet seems to be a concern in our view.
Sabre reported a narrower-than-expected loss for the third quarter of 2023. The company’s top Earnings Reporting Date Nov 02, 2023
line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate and improved year over year.
Sales Surprise 4.69%
The company reported an adjusted loss of 6 cents per share, narrower than the Zacks EPS Surprise 9.09%
Consensus Estimate of a loss of 7 cents. Also, the figure was narrower than the year-ago Quarterly EPS -0.17
quarter’s loss of 25 cents per share. Annual EPS (TTM) -0.96
Sabre reported revenues of $740 million for the third quarter, surpassing the consensus mark of
$731.5 million. The top line came in 11.6% higher than $663.4 million in the year-ago period.
This year-over-year surge in the top line reflects a significant improvement in global air, hotel and other travel bookings. Additionally, the
company's Travel Solutions division benefited from favorable rates as international and corporate bookings continued to improve.
Quarter in Detail
The Travel Solutions segment’s revenues increased 11% year over year to $672 million, primarily driven by an increase in global air and other
travel bookings. Our model estimates for Travel Solutions revenues were pegged at $647.2 million, which indicated 7.2% year-over-year growth.
The segment’s revenues also benefited from favorable rate impacts as international and corporate bookings improved.
Distribution’s (a sub-division of Travel Solutions) revenues improved to $524.8 million from $430.8 million in the third quarter of 2022. This was
chiefly driven by the gradual recovery of bookings and an increase in average booking fees due to a shift in the booking mix.
IT Solutions’ (a sub-division of Travel Solutions) revenues were $147 million, down 14.9% from the year-ago quarter’s $172.8 million. The
decrease in performance was due to reduced revenues attributed to de-migrations, owing to the repercussions of changes in Russian legislation,
along with a 1% decline in the number of passengers boarded.
The Hospitality Solutions segment’s revenues totaled $78.6 million compared with the year-ago quarter’s $67.5 million. This upside was mainly
fueled by a 7% increase in central reservation system transactions and a 9% increase in per transaction rate. Our model estimates for Hospitality
Solutions revenues were pegged at $81.2 million, which indicated 20.3% year-over-year growth.
Sabre reported an adjusted operating income of $83.6 million, significantly improving from the operating income of $0.7 million posted in the year-
earlier period. Adjusted EBITDA improved from $34.3 million reported a year ago to $110.2 million. This improvement was driven by an increase
in revenues.
Sabre exited the September-end quarter with cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash of $622.6 million compared with the previous quarter’s
$803.7 million.In the third quarter, Sabre generated an operating cash flow of $59.4 million. The company’s free cash flow was $39 million during
the reported quarter.
On Oct 30, Sabre announced the strengthening of its partnership with Air India. The new partnership will enable India's domestic travel agencies
to access Air India's domestic content through Sabre GDS.
On Oct 23, Sabre announced that it has entered a multi-year distribution agreement with Jet2.com that will enable Sabre-affiliated agencies
access to Jet2.com content, which can be accessed through the Sabre GDS Platform.
On Oct 19, Sabre announced its renewal EDIFACT agreement with Air-France KLM. The two parties also closed a strategic multi-year NDC
distribution agreement.
On Oct 16, Sabre announced the successful implementation of its comprehensive suite of Radixx products by Aero Mongolia, which includes
Sabre's Radixx Res Passenger Service System (PSS).
On Oct 5, Sabre announced the signing of an enhanced distribution agreement with LATAM, allowing the distribution of NDC content through the
Sabre Global Distribution System (GDS). This setup will provide Sabre-connected agencies with long-term access to LATAM's traditional
offerings while also expanding LATAM's reach and boosting sales.
On Oct 4, Sabre announced that its partner Habitas Group, a Global Hospitality Management group has successfully implemented Sabre's
SynXis Booking Engine, SynXis Voice Agent, and GDS Distribution platforms.
On Oct 2, Sabre announced that Cinnamon Hotels & Resorts have selected Sabre’s SynXis platform as its new Central Reservations System
(CRS) to drive growth and scale.
On Sep 27, Sabre launched its newest AI-powered retailing solution designed to optimize the management of airlines' premium cabin inventory.
On Aug 23, Sabre announced a multi-year distribution agreement with Egypt’s Nile Air focused on promoting Nile Air's content to travel agents
on a massive scale through Sabre’s marketplace.
On Aug 21, Sabre announced a multi-year distribution agreement that expands its long-standing relationship with Scandinavian Airlines (SAS).
On Aug 14, Sabre announced the availability of Lodging AI, marking the introduction of its Sabre Travel AI capabilities in the lodging sector and
enhancing the power of Content Services for Lodging.
Valuation
Shares of Sabre have decreased 33.2% in the year-to-date and 11.4% over the trailing 12-month period. Stocks in the Zacks sub-industry have
increased 26.1% and the Zacks Computer & Technology sector jumped 36.4% in the YTD. Over the past year, the Zacks sub-industry increased
49.1% while the sector gained 39.2%.
The S&P 500 Index has increased 14.5% in the year so far and 15.3% in the past year.
The stock is currently trading at 0.43X forward 12-month sales, compared with 3.11X for the Zacks sub-industry, 3.74X for the Zacks sector and
3.53X for the S&P 500 Index.
Over the past five years, the stock has traded as high as 2.25X and as low as 0.24X with a 5-year median of 1.24X. Our Neutral recommendation
indicates the stock will perform in-line with the market. Our $4.50 price target reflects 0.45X forward 12-month sales.
The table below shows the summary valuation data for SABR
VGM Score - -
Market Cap 1.37 B 1.35 B 30.33 B 1.33 B 1,615.82 B 1.36 B
# of Analysts 4 4 16 5 17 1
Dividend Yield 0.00% 0.00% 1.7% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Value Score - -
Cash/Price 0.45 0.18 0.05 0.22 0.07 0.83
EV/EBITDA 47.77 7.47 13.01 5.43 17.30 0.71
PEG Ratio -0.17 1.29 2.06 NA 1.45 NA
Price/Book (P/B) NA 2.03 3.05 1.29 5.91 0.88
Price/Cash Flow (P/CF) NA 25.12 12.30 5.29 21.78 4.89
P/E (F1) -7.98 23.58 17.21 8.18 22.55 4.42
Price/Sales (P/S) 0.48 2.00 2.42 0.69 5.44 0.77
Earnings Yield -11.38% 3.47% 5.74% 12.21% 4.44% 22.63%
Debt/Equity -3.76 0.00 0.62 0.00 0.05 0.00
Cash Flow ($/share) -0.64 0.03 8.85 4.52 5.93 1.47
Growth Score - -
Hist. EPS Growth (3-5 yrs) NA% 21.43% 10.10% 0.13% 22.88% -11.13%
Proj. EPS Growth (F1/F0) 57.89% 36.27% 6.10% 5.80% 25.66% 21.80%
Curr. Cash Flow Growth -55.78% 3.58% 5.79% 2.43% -14.21% -155.68%
Hist. Cash Flow Growth (3-5 yrs) NA% 16.62% 9.31% 4.82% 20.86% -6.90%
Current Ratio 1.32 1.59 1.26 1.12 2.04 2.60
Debt/Capital NA% 0.01% 39.52% 0.01% 4.80% 0.00%
Net Margin -20.73% -9.31% 11.76% 0.39% 22.46% 14.53%
Return on Equity NA% -2.58% 17.54% 5.09% 25.24% 16.70%
Sales/Assets 0.58 0.80 0.55 0.88 0.78 0.78
Proj. Sales Growth (F1/F0) 15.40% 7.08% 4.52% 9.50% 8.80% -10.50%
Momentum Score - -
Daily Price Chg -0.24% 1.43% 0.94% -2.96% 1.26% 2.58%
1 Week Price Chg -9.33% -4.48% 5.85% -3.86% -9.90% 4.30%
4 Week Price Chg 6.44% -3.99% 1.16% -17.09% -6.16% 0.14%
12 Week Price Chg -26.77% -1.91% -2.37% -19.98% -0.36% -28.76%
52 Week Price Chg -10.41% 14.86% 15.59% -1.16% 49.11% 32.59%
20 Day Average Volume 4,647,747 299,172 2,326,078 256,194 32,245,164 807,335
(F1) EPS Est 1 week change 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.79% 0.00% 0.00%
(F1) EPS Est 4 week change 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.79% 0.83% 0.00%
(F1) EPS Est 12 week change 15.28% -0.26% 0.23% -0.26% 1.51% 0.70%
(Q1) EPS Est Mthly Chg 0.00% 0.00% -0.46% 1.50% -1.84% 0.00%
Zacks Recommendation
The Zacks Recommendation aims to predict performance over the next 6 to 12 months. The foundation for the quantitatively determined Zacks
Recommendation is trends in the company's estimate revisions and earnings outlook. The Zacks Recommendation is broken down into 3 Levels;
Outperform, Neutral and Underperform. Unlike many Wall Street firms, we have an excellent balance between the number of Outperform and
Neutral recommendations. Our team of 70 analysts are fully versed in the benefits of earnings estimate revisions and how that is harnessed
through the Zacks quantitative rating system. But we have given our analysts the ability to override the Zacks Recommendation for the 1200
stocks that they follow. The reason for the analyst over-rides is that there are often factors such as valuation, industry conditions and
management effectiveness that a trained investment professional can spot better than a quantitative model.
Zacks Rank
The Zacks Rank is our short-term rating system that is most effective over the one- to three-month holding horizon. The underlying driver for the
quantitatively-determined Zacks Rank is the same as the Zacks Recommendation, and reflects trends in earnings estimate revisions.
Academic research has proven that stocks with the best Value, Growth and Momentum characteristics Growth Score
outperform the market. The Zacks Style Scores rate stocks on each of these individual styles and assigns
Momentum Score
a rating of A, B, C, D and F. We also produce the VGM Score (V for Value, G for Growth and M for
Momentum), which combines the weighted average of the individual Style Scores into one score. This is VGM Score
perfectly suited for those who want their stocks to have the best scores across the board.
As an investor, you want to buy stocks with the highest probability of success. That means buying stocks with a Zacks Recommendation of
Outperform, which also has a Style Score of an A or a B.
Disclosures
This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational purposes only. The analysts contributing to this report do
not hold any shares of this stock. The analysts contributing to this report do not serve on the board of the company that issued this
stock. The EPS and revenue forecasts are the Zacks Consensus estimates, unless otherwise indicated in the report’s first-page
footnote. Additionally, the analysts contributing to this report certify that the views expressed herein accurately reflect the analysts personal
views as to the subject securities and issuers. ZIR certifies that no part of the analysts compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly,
related to the specific recommendation or views expressed by the analyst in the report.
Additional information on the securities mentioned in this report is available upon request. This report is based on data obtained from sources we
believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy and does not purport to be complete. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to
change.
ZIR is not an investment advisor and the report should not be construed as advice designed to meet the particular investment needs of any
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involved in investment banking activities for the stock issuer covered in this report.
ZIR uses the following rating system for the securities it covers. Outperform- ZIR expects that the subject company will outperform the broader
U.S. equities markets over the next six to twelve months. Neutral- ZIR expects that the company will perform in line with the broader U.S.
equities markets over the next six to twelve months. Underperform- ZIR expects the company will underperform the broader U.S. equities
markets over the next six to twelve months.
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