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October 2022 | Volume 23 No.

2
POLICY REVIEW

IMPACT OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE ON COASTAL


REAL ESTATE AND INFRASTRUCTURE IN INDIA
An Agenda For Policy And Research

Sea level rise (SLR) is inevitable of disaster risk mitigation and


PROF. PIYUSH TIWARI and so is the risk to the coastal adaptation.
DR. MOHIT KUMAR populations and properties.
Along the Indian coast, sea INTRODUCTION
levels are rising faster than the The average global sea level
global average. Metropolitan has increased by 76 mm in the
“Though we have some cities like Kolkata, Chennai, last 25 years due to increasing
Kochi and Mumbai would be concentrations of green house
information about potential
the most impacted because of sea gases in the atmosphere
SLR impacts along the level rise in future. Mumbai’s (Willoughby et al., 2020).
coastline of few metropolitan sea level is estimated to rise to The three primary factors
cities, we still do not know 0.12m by 2040 and a further attributed to sea level rise
how much area and how by 0.21 m by 2060 compared to (SLR) globally are thermal
many people will be at risk 0.04 m in 2020. The rise in sea expansion, melting glaciers,
for various levels of sea level level along Indian coast will and the loss of polar ice sheets.
rise scenarios in various other pose risk of flash flooding and The main risks arising from a
coastal regions of the country. submergence of many significant rising sea level are shoreline
An agenda for research should coastal properties and road erosion and degradation,
be on mapping the area and networks. Mumbai had suffered which are amplified by
economic losses worth USD storm surge, permanent land
population vulnerable to SLR
1.75 billion between 2005 to inundation, and saltwater
across every coastal district/ 2015 due to floods. Developing intrusion. Shoreline erosion
city.” policies to mitigate and adapt can occur since rising sea level
to the impacts of SLR in cities causes waves to push further
on Indian coastline is necessary. inland, even during low-tide.
Key Words: Sea level Rise (SLR), SDG 14 also recognizes the need Due to incessant growth of
Coastal Real Estate, Disaster Risk for sustainably managing and built areas in coastal towns,
Reduction, Financing, Urban Planning protecting marine and coastal the natural channels for storm
Prof. Piyush Tiwari (piyush.tiwari@ ecosystems to avoid significant water to drain into the sea
unimelb.edu.au) is Professor of adverse impacts. Vulnerability are lost. Furthermore, with
Property, Faculty of Architecture mapping of habitats along high tide, the effect of storms
Building and Planning, University the coastline in advance will are amplified as storm drains
of Melbourne, Australia & provide ample time to direct the are unable to drain into the
Visiting Professor, IRADe; and the efforts towards mitigation and sea as the high tide (which
Corresponding author. Dr. Mohit adaptation. There is also a need coincides with storm) pushes
Kumar is Research Analyst, Integrated to develop new market-based
Research and Action for Development
the water back on the land.
instruments to finance the cost The rise in water table due to
(IRADe), New Delhi, India.

October, 2022, Volume 23. No.2 - SHELTER 43


POLICY REVIEW

sea level rise and ineffective Section 2 briefly discusses flooding in coastal town and
natural drainage systems will the impact of sea level rise cities is critical for coastal
cause permanent inundation globally and in India on planning and for assessing
of some parts of coastal land habitats and population. the benefits of climate
or result in chronic flooding. Through literature review, mitigation measures as well
Intrusion of saltwater in Section 3 highlights the as the costs of failure to act
ground water is leading to towns and cities that will be (Kulp and Strauss, 2019).
contamination of drinking highly impacted by sea level At the global level, the total
water supplies and also rise along the Indian coast. number of people living in
damaging local agriculture Mitigation and adapting areas which will be affected
(Alfarrah and Walraevens, measures will depend on by flooding caused by sea
2018). Internationally, there the availability of finance. level rise has been estimated
is evidence that flooding risk The financing of disaster to be 300 million by 2050, and
causes loss in property values management is discussed in 480 million by 2100 (Kulp
and permanent damage to section 4. Section 5 discussed and Strauss, 2019). These
some properties, which may the policy development that effects are not distributed
even increase the cost of has impact on disaster risk uniformly across regions
insurance (Bin et al., 2011). management. Disaster risk but there are geographical
The debate in India on the risk management requires urban concentration. More than
to properties in coastal areas planning tools, as highlighted 70% of affected persons will
due to sea level rise is still in in Section 6. Market be in eight Asian countries
very early stages. The socio- mechanisms to complement – China, Bangladesh, India,
economic impact of sea-level public finance are discussed Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam,
rise on coastal towns and in section 7. Section 8 presents Philippines and Japan (Kulp
properties depends critically preliminary conclusions and and Strauss, 2019).
on our understanding of risk an agenda for policy and
Along the Indian coast, sea
and its internalisation, and the research.
levels are rising faster than
measures that are instituted the global average (WMO,
to mitigate the risk. The SEA LEVEL RISE
AND ITS PREDICTED 2022). 36 million people who
debate on allocation of risk will live in coastal areas in
(whether it’s a private risk IMPACT ON HUMANS
India by 2100 will be affected
or a social risk) is also crucial AND THEIR HABITATS
by coastal flooding and
to the design of solutions to The sea-level rise is inevitable inundation as a result of sea
mitigate and adapt to the risk.
and so is the risk to the level rise, even if moderate
Nevertheless the magnitude
coastal towns. Even under the cuts in CO2 emissions are
of social, economic and
most optimistic scenario and undertaken (Jayraman,
property value at risk will
implementation of strategies 2019). This is about 8% of
require options for mitigation
to immediately cut carbon the world’s population that
and adaptation to the risk.
emissions, the sea level could will be affected by sea level
In this paper, we argue still rise by another 0.5 m by rise. Metropolitan cities like
that there is an urgent need 2100 (Kulp and Strauss, 2019). Kolkata (population 4.5
to develop appropriate Translating projections related million as per 2011 census),
mitigation and adaptation to sea level rise into potential Chennai (population 4.6
strategies to address the risk exposure of population to the million as per 2011 census),
that the sea level rise poses. risk posed by incidences of Kochi (population 0.6 million

44 HUDCO-HSMI Publication
POLICY REVIEW

as per 2011 census) and tool which showcases the scenario (SSP2-4.5).
Mumbai (population 12.48 impact of sea level rise along
million as per 2011 census) the Indian coast using IPCC 2. At Hiron Point in
would be the most impacted (Intergovernmental Panel on Sundarbans sea level
because of sea level rise in Climate Change) projections will rise to 0.17m in 2040
future (Jayraman, 2019). (Figure 1). Key observations compared to 0.06m in
On the east coast of India, related to the sea level rise 2020 (Figure 1).
sea levels have risen at a on Indian coast, according 3. Chennai will see a 0.10m
rate of 30 mm per year in to NASA, are (https:// rise in 2040 compared to
the Sundarbans delta in the w w w. h i n d u s t a n t i m e s . 0.03m in 2020 (Figure 1).
last two decades, leading c o m / e n v i ro n m e n t / n a s a -
to 12% loss in the shoreline visualises-how-sea-levels- 4. Cochin will likely see a
and causing displacement will-rise-in-indian-coastal- sea level rise of 0.15m in
to approximately 1.5 million regions-101629257135231. 2040 compared to 0.06m
people from the delta html): (Figure 1).
(Sangomla, 2022).
1. By 2040, Mumbai’s sea IMPACT OF SEA LEVEL
MAPPING SEA LEVEL level will rise to 0.12m RISE ON COASTAL
RISE ON INDIAN COAST (Figure 1) and by 2060 REAL ESTATE AND
it will rise to 0.21 m INFRASTRUCTURE
NASA (National Aeronautics compared to 0.04m
and Space Administration) in 2020 based on an While a comprehensive
has developed a visualization intermediate emission modelling of the impact of sea
Figure 1: SLR visualization along the Indian coast

Source: Authors based on NASA, 2022

October, 2022, Volume 23. No.2 - SHELTER 45


POLICY REVIEW

level rise on properties along by those who had insurance India has established a total
the coast is not available, in Chennai was close to 1 corpus of Rs. 1601 billion
disparate information billion USD (https://www. (USD 20 billion) for States for
suggest that the rise in sea b u s i n e s s - s t a n d a rd . c o m / disaster management for the
level along Indian coast will article/current-affairs/ duration of 2021-26, of which
pose significant risk of flash chennai-floods-insurance- the Union share is Rs. 1226
flooding and submergence claims-touch-rs-4-800- billion (USD 15 billion) and
of many of the significant crore-116012201026_1.html). States share is Rs. 375 billion
coastal properties and road This is huge considering that (USD 5 billion). This is as per
networks. For example, 998 the penetration rate of non-life the recommendations of 15th
buildings and 24 km of road insurance in India is merely Finance Commission (XV-FC).
network in Mumbai will be 1% (https://www.statista. In addition, the Commission
impacted by future rise in com/statistics/655395/ has recommended that for
sea levels by 2050 (Deccan life-and-non-life-insurance- cities with million plus
Herald, 2022). During high penetration-india/). Mumbai population, a separate fund
tide, the number of buildings had suffered economic losses should be established. So far
and road-length in Mumbai worth USD 1.75 billion as the allocation of funds is
that would face the threat of between 2005 to 2015 due concerned, the XV-FC has
submergence in the future to floods (Pandey, 2019). recommended allocation
SLR scenario rises to 2490 and The coastal megacities of Rs. 15 billion (USD 0.19
126 km respectively (RMSI, (having more than 10 million billion) to mitigate the risk of
2022). Key coastal properties population) are losing at least erosion across Indian states
under threat due to the SLR USD 6 billion every year due and Rs. 10 billion (USD 130
include Haji Ali Dargah, to extreme flooding events million) for re-settlement of
Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust, and these losses will increase people affected by erosion.
Bandra-Worli Sea Link and to USD 1 trillion annually by In addition, the Commission
the Western Express Highway. 2050 if no coping/adaptation has recommended allocation
Similarly, 55 buildings in strategies are developed and of Rs. 5 billion (USD 63
Chennai; 464 buildings implemented in time (Pandey, million) each to three most
in Kochi; 349 buildings in 2019). populous Indian coastal cities
Trivandrum and 206 buildings viz. Mumbai, Kolkata and
in Visakhapatnam will be THE FUNDING GAP Chennai for reducing the risk
under risk of submergence The risk that the sea level rise of flooding.When seen relative
due to SLR by 2050 (RMSI, poses will require disaster to the value of economic
2022). Majority of these management efforts at the losses faced in Chennai and
buildings will be residential societal and individual Mumbai, these funds are
complexes thereby impacting property owner’s level. insufficient. The Commission
lives and livelihoods of many Considering the scale of the also recommended
people. The flash floods funds required for disaster employing market-based risk
which submerged Chennai management (flooding is just management instruments
in November 2015 caused one component of disasters such as insurance schemes
economic losses to the extent that requires management for providing financial
of USD 2.2 billion (Business besides drought, groundwater assistance and relief against
Line, 2018), making these salinity, loss of land/revenue, the disasters. XV-FC had
floods most expensive ones damage to the infrastructure proposed four insurance
in 2015. The insurance claims etc.), the Government of interventions, viz. National

46 HUDCO-HSMI Publication
POLICY REVIEW

Insurance scheme for Disaster reduction of disaster risk and for recovery and build-
related deaths, Synchronising losses in lives, livelihoods back-better. The framework
Relief assistance with Crop and health and in the provides for speedy,
insurance, Risk Pool for economic, physical, social, participative, inclusive
infrastructure protection cultural and environmental reconstruction of housing
& recovery, and Access to assets of persons, and infrastructure and
International Reinsurance businesses, communities recognises the importance
for outlier hazard events. and countries’ (UN, 2015, of rebuilding lives and
These insurance schemes 9). It emphasises ‘enhancing livelihood of communities,
will supposedly provide an disaster preparedness and lists salient provisions of
additional layer of protection for better response and disaster recovery framework,
to people in the event of “build-back-better” in but it lacks comprehensive
disasters. recovery, rehabilitation and rebuilding of all aspects of
reconstruction’ as one of the losses that disaster affected
While the recommendations four priority actions (UN, 2015, persons face.
of 15th Finance Commission 11). Addressing the priorities
mark an important beginning for action proposed by the No two disasters are similar
for proactive disaster Sendai framework, India has and no two disaster risk
management in India, the prepared its National Disaster would require similar
allocation of funds are Management Plan (NDMP), response. Developing policies
inadequate considering 2016. Basing on the vision for to mitigate and adapt to the
the needs. The XV-FC has the Sendai framework, India’s impacts of SLR in cities is
recommended establishment NDMP aims to ‘make India necessary, which requires
of separate funds at centre and disaster resilient, achieve data. The programs for
state level, with major share substantial disaster risk mitigation and adaptation
being retained by the centre. reduction, and significantly would emerge from policies.
The Finance Commission has decrease the losses of life, Given the limited availability
stressed strengthening of local livelihoods, and assets— of public finance for disaster
governing bodies would be economic, physical, social, management, vulnerability
necessary for implementation cultural, and environmental— mapping of habitats along
of disaster management by maximising the ability the coastline in advance will
plans. The non financial role to cope with disasters at all help in prioritising areas
for disaster risk management levels of administration as where disaster management
has been allocated to district well as among communities efforts are required. With
disaster management (NDMA, 2016, 14).’ Resilience proper planning, risk to
authorities (DDMA) (Borah, at the administrative and lives and livelihoods could
2020). community level is an be eliminated. We have an
important component of example of Odisha, a state
DISASTER along the eastern coast
NDMP. While prevention of
MANAGEMENT of India. The state has a
disasters is a major component
POLICIES of the plan, disasters in their coastline of 550 km out of
The Sendai framework entirety cannot be eliminated. which 28% was impacted by
for disaster risk reduction Based on the National Policy erosion during 1990 and 2016
2015‒2030, to which 187 for Disaster Management (Panda, 2020). The villages
countries are signatories, 2009 (NDMA, 2009), NDMP of Satabhaya in Kendrapada
advocates ‘substantial also provides a framework district of Odisha suffered

October, 2022, Volume 23. No.2 - SHELTER 47


POLICY REVIEW

heavy erosion due to SLR. The construction of properties in and capacity building,
State launched a Resettlement the coastal zones potentially development of an early
and Rehabilitation Policy vulnerable to SLR. These warning system, disaster risk
in 2011 for 571 affected coastal properties will be reduction (DRR) policies,
families. These families exposed to future sea level insurance mechanism to
were popular as India’s first rise and associated flooding. cover the loss of lives and
“climate refugees”, and were properties. Adaptation efforts
compensated with houses, Urban planning provides an would require development
agricultural plots and other important instrument for sea of regional coastal adaptation
facilities at a place 12 km level rise risk mitigation/ plans outlining the potential
away from Satabhaya (Panda, adaptation efforts. The risks due to SLR as well
2020). With SLR in future, disaster management as strategies which can be
there will be many more process should focus on adopted to address them. This
climate refugees which needs sustainable adaptation which part will also require funding
to be saved and rehabilitated. can ensure “socially and towards development of
We need to plan in advance environmentally sustainable community-led adaptation
for them. development pathways projects so that shortcomings
including both social justice in the efforts at local scale
THE ROLE OF URBAN and environmental integrity” could be identified and
PLANNING (Hurlimann et al., 2014). The remediated.
disaster risk reduction should
Planning of coasts is a be mainstreamed in all the India has notified Coastal
controversial issue given the development plans for coastal Regulation Zones (CRZ)
importance of coasts in local regions. Gradually the attempt regulations in 1991 dividing
economy. The Indian coastline should be to radically expand the landward area upto 500
underwent substantial and enhance disaster risk meters from high tide line
modification due to an reduction so that it becomes (HTL) into four zones and
upsurge in developmental a normal routine exercise and restricting the economic
activities, which coupled with fully institutionalized within activities in each of these
SLR, has led to severe coastal the development agenda. The zones as per their ecological
erosion. India has already plans should include both sensitivity (https://www.
lost 235 km2 of land to coastal structural and non-structural t h e h i n d u . c o m / f e a t u re s /
erosion between 1990 and mitigation and adaptation homes-and-gardens/
2016 (Panda, 2020). In 2019, measures. Structural Building-norms-for-coastal-
the Ministry of Environment, mitigation measures would zones/article14428006.ece).
Forests and Climate Change require investment on CRZ-I include areas that
(MoEFCC), Government development of robust are ecologically sensitive
of India diluted the coastal engineering measures which and important, such as
protection rules [Earlier can resist the impact of hazard. national parks/marine
rules prohibited construction Such measures, if developed parks, sanctuaries, reserve
activity within the 100 metres in consonance with natural forests, wildlife habitats,
of the High Tide Line (HTL), environment, will be long- mangroves, corals/coral
however, the new rules lasting and more fruitful. reefs, areas close to breeding
notified by the Ministry Non-structural mitigation and spawning grounds of fish
changed the no development measures would involve and other marine life. No new
zone to 10 metres from the expenditure on awareness construction is permitted in
HTL], thereby allowing more

48 HUDCO-HSMI Publication
POLICY REVIEW

CRZ- I areas except (a) projects shall not be more than twice FINANCING SLR RISK
relating to the Department of the number of existing units,
The financing of disaster
Atomic Energy; (b) pipelines, the total covered area on all
management assumes
conveying systems including floors shall not exceed 33
paramount importance
transmission lines; and (c) per cent of the plot size, the
in order to develop and
exploration and extraction of overall height of construction
implement mitigation/
oil and natural gas. CRZ-II shall not exceed 9 metres,
adaptation plans. In India, the
covers areas that have already and the construction shall
source of most of the disaster
been developed up to or close not be more than 2 floors
management funding is
to the shoreline. Construction (ground plus one). CRZ-
government. The funding
of buildings is allowed in this IV includes coastal areas in
from the government is
zone but only on the landward the Andaman & Nicobar
mostly directed towards
side of the existing road or on (A& N), Lakshadweep and
relief and rehabilitation
the landward side of existing small islands, which are
efforts. There is need for pre-
authorised structures. These not regulated under CRZ-I,
emptive planning so that the
newly constructed buildings CRZ-II, or CRZ-III. In A&N
shocks resulting from SLR
shall have to adhere with islands, no new construction
can be sustainably absorbed
the existing local town and is allowed within 200 meter
by the coastal communities.
country planning regulations of HTL. Buildings can be
Though disaster management
including the existing norms constructed between 200
authorities (both at central
of floor space index (FSI)/ and 500 metres from the
and state levels) have
floor area ratio (FAR). CRZ-III HTL but they will not have
contributed to funding the
include rural coastal villages more than 2 floors, the total
cost of disaster management,
and coastal areas within covered area on all floors
there is a big gap between the
municipal limits. In CRZ-III, will not be more than 50 per
requirements and availability
areas upto 200 meters from cent of the plot size, and the
of funds. Finance for disaster
the HTL are categorised as total height of construction
management in private
‘No Development Zone’. should not exceed 9 metres.
markets through instruments
However, activities like In Lakshadweep and small
such as insurance has been
agriculture, horticulture, salt- islands, construction may be
largely absent in India.
manufacturing are allowed. allowed depending on the
Today, we can find a number
The land area between 200- distance from the HTL and
of opportunities for private
500 meter falling in CRZ- the size of the islands (Sundar,
investment in the coastal risk
III can be used for building 2016). These regulations
reduction sector. For example,
constructions; however, have been modified in 2019
the private investment
only with approval from by the Government to some
can be directly targeted
the MoEFCC (Ministry extent with permission of
to developing resilience
of Environment, Forests construction allowed in some
for local business or asset.
and Climate Change), cases to even within 10 m
Concessional financing and
Government of India. In of the HTL which further
blended finance opportunities
addition, the construction has accentuated the need
enable private investors
activities between 200 and to strengthen the planning
to invest in such projects.
500 metres of the HTL can regulations.
Concessional finance has
be taken up if they follow
DEVELOPMENT OF been defined as below market
the regulation that the total
PRIVATE MARKET FOR rate finance provided by
number of dwelling units

October, 2022, Volume 23. No.2 - SHELTER 49


POLICY REVIEW

major financial institutions, could adjust cost of capital can mandate investees
such as development banks available for the private or borrowers to go for
and multilateral institutions sector by adjusting premiums nature-based insurance.
to developing countries depending on whether the
to accelerate development proposed investment includes 3. Adoption of parametric
objectives (World Bank, nature-based solutions (such insurance mechanism
2021). Grants, loans and as development of mangrove (a type of cover that
equity investments are corridor along the intertidal pays out a pre-agreed
the most common type zone or belt of Casuarina amount to a policyholder
of concessional finance plantations along the beach according to pre-defined
products. Concessional to protect the hinterland) and event characteristics
finance can help in addressing how this increases resilience. or parameters) under
the globally significant The emerging blue carbon which the damage to the
development challenges such market—which businesses policyholder is covered
as climate change mitigation. are now looking at to offset as per the incidence (such
Blended financing refers to some of their emissions—is as storm surge, cyclone).
the strategic use of public also an opportunity to attract CONCLUSION
and philanthropic resources finance for the restoration and
to mobilise private capital protection of coastal marine The coastal areas in India
for development purposes ecosystems. Development of will face the risk of sea level
(Kandasamy, 2022). This an insurance market to cover rise in the not-so-distant
type of financing mechanism the risk of SLR in coastal future. This will impact the
encourages the involvement areas is another lucrative value of built assets on the
of private investors along with opportunity. The insurance coast adversely. Planning
public funding instruments industry need to understand and investment at the coastal
in identifying and executing and appropriately value region and local building
development projects. This the risk reduction achieved level will be necessary to
type of financing structure from natural coastal mitigate and adapt to the risk.
typically involve use of infrastructure investments, so It is, therefore, important to
instruments like grant as to price insurance products develop mechanisms which
capital, debt and equity. appropriately. The insurance could integrate mitigation and
Blended financing has several market can be developed in adaptation strategies in the
benefits like pooling capital following ways (https:// development plans of coastal
through various/multiple climatechampions.unfccc. regions. At the property
investors which may help int/a-guide-to-private- level, it is important that new
in reducing the overall risk sector-investment-in-coastal- market-based instruments
and enhance the success rate; resilience/): are developed that will allow
and ensuring that projects property owners to cover the
succeed on achieving social 1. The construction potential losses. Financing
and environmental objectives of natural coastal of development plans will
in addition to financial ones infrastructure can require that innovative
(Kandasamy, 2022). be financed by an financing mechanisms such
institution/player so that as blue finance, blended
In particular, when partnering the insurance premiums finance, concessional
on coastal resilience projects, can be reduced. financing, etc. are leveraged.
financial institutions These will help in developing
2. Financial institutions

50 HUDCO-HSMI Publication
POLICY REVIEW

nature-based resilience to develop an action plan to REFERENCES


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October, 2022, Volume 23. No.2 - SHELTER 51


POLICY REVIEW

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