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Disaster Awareness 2uuu
Disaster Awareness 2uuu
A community disaster training program focused on earthquakes, floods, and landslides was
implemented in Cankiri, Turkey, in 2002. It covered mitigation, preparedness, and response
aspects of natural disaster management. Four thousand community members participated in
the training program delivered by 95 local trainers. In this study we evaluated the impact
of participation in this program. One year later, 400 randomly selected participants in the training
program and a comparable sample of 400 community members who did not participate in any
disaster training program (nonparticipants) were surveyed. Disaster-related cognitions (i.e.,
disaster expectation, worry about future disasters, loss estimations if a disaster occurs, beliefs
in the possibility of mitigation, and preparedness) and reported preparedness behaviors were
assessed. The relationship of sociodemographic, previous disaster experience, anxiety, and
locus of control variables with disaster-related cognitions and behaviors was examined.
Results showed that participants in the training program had more disaster expectation, worry
and loss estimation, and more preparedness behaviors. Results of regression analyses,
examining the relationship of the variables of the study with disaster cognitions, affect, and
actual preparedness behaviors showed that gender, education, being a participant in the
training program, anxiety, and locus of control are important variables related to different
kinds of disaster-related cognitions. However, reported preparedness behaviors were quite low
and this result needs to be viewed with caution. These results have important implications for
the modification of programs for targeting sustainable behavioral change, which is likely to
reduce the impact of future disasters.
The importance of the participation of the local community for the execution
of successful disaster mitigation and preparedness measures has been repeatedly
A. Nuray Karanci, Bahattin Aksit and Gulay Dirik, Departments of Psychology and Sociology, Middle
East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey.
Appreciation is due to anonymous reviewers.
Please address correspondence and reprint requests to: A. Nuray Karanci, Middle East Technical
University, Department of Psychology, 06531, Ankara, Turkey. Email: karanci@metu.edu.tr
243
244 DISASTER AWARENESS IN TURKEY
stressed (Karanci & Aksit, 2000; Perry & Lindell, 2003). Increasing hazard and
risk awareness and strengthening beliefs in the possibility of taking mitigation
and preparedness measures can be an initial stage in motivating communit y
members for the development and the application of appropriate preparedness
behaviors (Lopez-Vazquez & Marvan, 2003; Mulilis, Duval, & Lippa, 1990;
Mulilis & Duval, 1997). Numerous methods of community training, varying
from simple booklets about hazards to workshops, seminars, and applied training
courses in disaster mitigation and preparedness have been utilized (Asgary &
Willis, 1997; Bowen & Faison, 2002). However, evaluation of the effects of such
programs in increasing community resilience is scarce and has produced mixed
results (Bowen & Faison, 2002; Morrissey & Reser, 2003; Ronan & Johnston,
2003). It is necessary to evaluate the impact of such training programs by
assessing the cognitive and behavioral changes that follow them in order to
develop guidelines for increasing their impact and to find methods that will
facilitate cognitive and, more importantly, behavioral change and thereby elicit
preparedness behaviors.
The aim in the present study was to examine the impact of participating in a
basic disaster awareness training program for earthquakes, landslides, and floods
on cognitive and behavioral measures related to disaster mitigation and
preparedness. More specifically, the effects of such a training program on
disaster-related cognitions (i.e., expectations and worry about future disasters,
loss estimation, beliefs in mitigation, and preparedness) and preparedness
behaviors were examined one year after the training program. The differences
between the participants of the training program and a control group of nonpar-
ticipants were examined in order to understand the impact of the training.
Furthermore, we examined the predictors of disaster-related cognitions and
preparedness behaviors.
In the literature on persuasive communication it is proposed that when individuals
are persuaded that they are at risk of confronting events that will threaten their well-
being they will engage in adaptive behaviors (Duval & Mulilis, 1999; Janis,
1967). Thus, according to this view, if individuals perceive a risk of disasters and
believe that their well-being will be threatened then they are likely to engage in
mitigation or preparedness behaviors. However, contrary to this view, previous
experience with disasters has not been found to be a good predictor of
preparedness behaviors (Rincon, Linares, & Greenberg, 2001; Rüstemli &
Karanci, 1999). Therefore, simply being aware of risks does not seem to be a
strong factor for the initiation of responsible adaptive behaviors. The person-
relative-to-event (PrE) model can be used to modify the persuasive communi-
cation viewpoint (Duval & Mulilis, 1999). According to the PrE model, adaptive
behavior is related to two kinds of appraisals. The first one is related to the evaluation
of the event and the second one is about the evaluation of personal resources. In the
DISASTER AWARENESS IN TURKEY 245
model it is proposed that when the appraised severity and probability of the event
exceed the appraised personal-coping resources adaptive behavior is not likely to
follow. However, when the person assesses his/her own resources as sufficient
relative to the perceived threat entailed in the event then adaptive behavior will
follow. Thus, in disaster awareness programs it seems important to highlight and
develop an awareness of risks involved in disaster events and also to empower the
person with relevant skills to cope with the event, so that the person evaluates
his/her resources relative to the dangers posed by the event as sufficient to deal
with the threat. Duval and Mulilis found that earthquake preparedness behaviors
increased for persons who evaluated their resources as high in comparison to the
magnitude of their threat perceptions, supporting the PrE model. Furthermore,
perceptions of responsibility for the mitigation of hazards have been found to
have a moderating effect for adaptive behavior when personal resources are viewed
as sufficient (Mulilis & Duval, 1997). Within the framework of this model, two
dimensions need to be stressed in community disaster training programs. The first
one is providing information on threat so that threat perception due to possible
future disasters is raised. The second area is increasing the personal resources of the
participants in dealing with the threat, so that the individual feels capable of
dealing with a possible future disaster event. Lastly, training programs need to
give community members a sense of responsibility for mitigation and prepared-
ness. Previous researchers in Turkey showed that although earthquake survivors
believe in the general possibility of mitigation and preparedness, they believe
that they themselves have fewer resources as compared to the state
institutions for taking such actions. Furthermore, they attribute responsibility
for mitigation and preparedness to external sources, such as the state, municipality,
engineers, and so on (Karanci & Aksit, 1999; Karanci & Aksit, 2000).
Research on predictors of preparedness behavior for disasters showed that age,
income, education, locus of control, beliefs in control, perceived threat, and
distress were significant predictors of preparedness behaviors for hurricanes and
earthquakes (Kasapoğlu & Ecevit, 2003; Rincon, et al., 2001; Rüstemli & Karanci,
1999). Rüstemli and Karanci found that anxiety about future earthquakes and
perceived control were significant predictors of preparedness behaviors among
the survivors of the Erzincan, Turkey earthquake. Kasapoğlu and Ecevit reported that
education, employment, social security, and knowledge were important predictors
of preparedness for future earthquakes among the survivors of the 1999 Marmara
earthquake. Thus, these findings seem to lend partial support to the PrE model, by
showing that being aware of threat and having personal resources – such as income,
education, belief in personal control, and knowledge about disasters – are import-
ant factors for facilitating preparedness behaviors.
246 DISASTER AWARENESS IN TURKEY
METHOD
THE SAMPLE
The sample consisted of 800 adults (female = 202, male = 598) living in
Cankiri. Half of the sample was drawn randomly from among the 4,000
participants of the disaster awareness training program (participants), while the other
half were 400 adults, randomly chosen from among individuals living in similar
neighborhoods, but not exposed to a disaster awareness training program, forming a
control group (nonparticipants). Ninety percent of the sample was employed,
48% owned the house they were living in and 53.6% had had a previous natural
disaster experience. Table 1 contains the characteristics of the participant and
nonparticipant samples. As can be seen, those who had participated in
training were slightly older and had less education. Apart from these differences,
the two groups were comparable.
RESEARCH INSTRUMENTS
The first part of the instrument was used to identify sociodemographic variables
[gender, age, marital status, education, employment status, household size,
house ownership status (owner versus rental), and household property (measured as
the total number checked by the respondent from a list of 10 household appliances
or consumer items, such as refrigerator, dishwasher, television, etc.)], whereas the
second part contained questions on disaster experience (whether they had
experienced a disaster in their lives, if yes, its type and degree of loss from the
disaster), five questions on cognitions/emotions related to hazard awareness and
TABLE 1
SUBJECTS’ CHARACTERISTICS
Variables Participated in Did not participate t All sample Effect size 95% C. I.
awareness ed. in awareness ed. Lower b. Upper b.
Age 35.93 (SD = 8.23) 33.80 (SD = 9.03) 3.48** 34.87 (SD = 8.69) .25 -3.34 -.93
Years of education 10.84 (SD = 2.83) 11.22 (SD = 2.63) -1.96* 11.03 (SD = 2.74) -.14 -.00 .76
Household size 4.16 (SD = 1.56) 4.09 (SD = 1.77) .61 4.12 (SD = 1.67) .04 -.31 .16
Household properties 6.61 (SD =1.15) 6.74 (SD = 1.31) -1.48 6.67 (SD = 1.24) -.02 -.04 .31
(R = 1-10)
Anxiety 13.66 (SD = 3.34) 13.83 (SD = 3.13) -.75 13.74 (SD = 3.23) -.05 -.29 .64
Locus of control 119.58 (SD = 20.23) 117.06 (SD = 18.45) 1.64 118.30 (SD = 19.37) .13 -5.53 .49
Note: ** p < .001, *p < .05
DISASTER AWARENESS IN TURKEY 249
mitigation (“How likely do you think is the probability of a disaster in Cankiri in the
next year?”; “How much do you worry about the occurrence of a disaster in Cankiri
over the next year?”; “How much loss do you expect for yourself/family if a
disaster occurs?”; “Do you believe that it is possible to mitigate disaster losses?”;
“To what extent can one be prepared for disasters?”). All the items were rated on
3-point Likert scales (1 = not at all, 3 = very much) and finally one question on
preparedness behavior “Have you made any preparations for future disasters?; and if
yes please list the actions that you have completed?” The following scales were given
in the next section of the instrument:
Locus of Control Scale (LCS) In the present study the 47-item LCS, developed
and tested with Turkish samples, was used (Dag, 2002). The scale uses a 5-point
Likert scale response format (1 = not suitable at all; 5 = completely suitable).
Dag reported the reliability of the whole scale as .92. The possible score range is
47-235.
In the present study a total locus of control score was obtained simply by
summing up the responses to the items of the LCS (M = 118.30, SD = 19.37, min. =
60, max. = 181), higher scores reflecting external locus of control. Cronbach’s
alpha reliability was .86 for the present study.
Symptom Checklist-40 (SCL-40) The SCL-40 provides a measure of general
distress (Derogatis & Cleary, 1977). The scale was previously translated and
used with survivors of three separate earthquakes in Turkey (Karanci &
Rüstemli, 1995; Karanci, Alcan, Aksit, Sucuoglu, & Balta, 1999). The items tap
somatic symptoms, anxiety, depression, and anger/irritability. Respondents were
asked to report which of the 40 symptoms they had experienced within the past two
weeks and to rate each item/symptom by considering the degree of distress it
caused on a 3-point scale (1 = not at all, 2 = somewhat, and 3 = a lot) during the
past two weeks.
For the present study a varimax orthogonal factor analysis was conducted for
the SCL-40, which revealed 7 factors, explaining 51% of the variance. Since
previous research showed that Anxiety is the only factor that is related to
preparedness (Rüstemli & Karanci, 1999), only the factor reflecting anxiety was
used in the present study for predicting disaster-related cognitions and
preparedness behaviors. This factor had 10 items and had an adequate Cronbach’s
alpha reliability value (.78). Anxiety scores were obtained by simply summing
up the responses to the 10 items of the anxiety factor of the SCL-40, (M = 13.74,
SD = 3.23, min. =10, max. = 29).
PROCEDURE
Four hundred participants were randomly selected from the 4,000 participants
who took part in the awareness training program. Their addresses and names
were noted. The 400 adults for the control group (nonparticipants) were selected
250 DISASTER AWARENESS IN TURKEY
randomly either from households located on the same street, or from among
individuals working in the same workplace. Trained interviewers administered
the questionnaires one year after the completion of the training program, in either
the homes or workplaces of the respondents. The administration took about 30
minutes. All of the individuals contacted agreed to participate in the study. Since
20 adults from the original training sample could not be contacted, the
researchers drew an additional 20 individuals from the list of participants.
RESULTS
1
The correlation matrix can be obtained from the authors upon request.
252 DISASTER AWARENESS IN TURKEY
training, and being more anxious seem to be related to higher expectations for
the occurrence of future disasters.
TABLE 2
PREDICTORS OF THE COGNITIVE/EMOTIONAL VARIABLES RELATED TO DISASTERS AND
PREPAREDNESS BEHAVIOR
I. Personal-residential
Gender (1=female; 2=male -.061 -.14** -.13** -.04 .02 .09*
Age -.02 -.04 -.02 .05 .01 .03
Education (years) .04 -.12** -.04 .13** .15*** .15**
Marital status
(1=married;
2=not married) -.08 -.10* -.12* -.06 -.08 -.09
Household size .00 -.03 -.06 -.10* -.09* -.05
House ownership
(0=owner; 1=rented) -.03 .07 .03 -.06 -.03 .10*
House type
(0=nonreinforced;
1=reinforced concrete) -.08 .01 -.03 -.05 .04 -.02
Household property .09* .11* .00 .07 .04 .01
F 2.00* 4.38*** 2.47** 5.93*** 6.39*** 3.48***
R2 .03 .06 .04 .08 .09 .05
II. Awareness training
(1=participant;
0=nonparticipant) .19*** .16*** .13** .08* .16*** .15***
F 3.77*** 5.51*** 3.12*** 5.53*** 7.15*** 4.99***
R2 .06 .08 .05 .08 .11 .08
III. Psychological
Anxiety .14*** .11** .05 .02 .02 .05
Locus of control -.02 -.05 -.05 -.27*** -.26*** .03
Dis. expectation .04
Dis. worry .14***
Loss estimation .08
Belief in mitigation .04
Belief in preparedness .02
F 4.08*** 5.23*** 2.76** 8.78*** 9.99*** 3.97***
R .28 .31 .23 .39 .41 .33
R2 .08 .10 .06 .15 .17 .11
Notes: 1 Beta, standardized coefficients are given; * p < .05, ** p < .01, *** p < .001
DISCUSSION
events, are more likely to believe in the possibility of their controlling the
harmful consequences of disasters (mitigation and preparedness). Anxiety, as an
affective variable, was a significant predictor of disaster expectations and
worry about future disasters. Thus, being very anxious seems to lead to higher threat
perceptions.
LIMITATIONS
The regression analysis about disaster-related cognitions and preparedness
behaviors revealed low beta coefficients resulting in low levels of explained
variance (R2). Our indicators of cognitions and beliefs were Likert-type measures
with only 3 response options, rather than 5. This was used due to difficulties
reported in our pilot testing for the comprehension of 5-point scales. This might
have limited a better assessment of variation. Our measure of preparedness behavior
was also such that the mean for preparedness behaviors was very low. The
measure for preparedness behavior that we used was quite conservative. In future
studies a more detailed analysis of preparedness behaviors needs to be adopted.
IMPLICATIONS
Overall, the results showed that for all disaster-related cognitions being a
participant in the disaster awareness training program made a difference. It seems
that the program was powerful in preparing individuals cognitively to tackle
future disasters. In spite of this, being men, having a higher level of education,
having a smaller household size, worrying about future disasters, and – most
important of all – participating in even a short disaster awareness program,
contributed to disaster preparedness behaviors. This shows that in developing
countries like Turkey, the challenge is to find means and support mechanisms to
motivate community members to engage in actual preparedness behaviors.
Almost none of the people in our sample engaged in strengthening their buildings
against future disasters. This requires high levels of economic resources. For such
kinds of committed mitigation behaviors not only the individual but also the
community and state resources need to be mobilized. Even after such a large-
scale disaster as the Marmara earthquake of 1999 and although Turkey is a
country in which almost 90% of the population lives on earthquake-prone areas,
the Turkish state and civil society do not seem to have reached the point of having
cognitions and behaviors necessary for effective disaster mitigation and
preparedness. The present program can be considered as a small step in this
direction.
DISASTER AWARENESS IN TURKEY 257
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