PROBABILITY

Engineering Data Analysis (ES209)

Introduction

This module intends to discuss the concept of

probability for discrete sample spaces,
application and ways of solving the probabilities
of different statistical data.
LEARNING OBJECTIVES

At the end of this module, you are expected to:

● Understand and describe sample spaces and
events for random experiments.
● Interpret and use probabilities of outcomes
and other probability rules to calculate
probabilities of events.
 WHAT IS
PROBABILITY ?
PROBABILITY
WHAT IS PROBABILITY ?

Probability is a branch of mathematics that deals with the

likelihood of events occurring.

Probability of an Event (Single Event):

Probability = number of ways achieving sucess
total number of possible outcomes
EXAMPLE # 1
Problem: Suppose you have a fair, unbiased coin (where both heads and tails are equally likely). What is
the probability of getting heads when you flip the coin?

number of ways of getting heads = 1

total number of possible outcomes = 2: head and tail

Probability of an Event (Single Event):

Probability = number of ways achieving sucess = 1
total number of possible outcomes 2

So, the probability of getting heads when flipping a fair coin is 1/2 or 50%. This means there is a 50%
chance of getting heads and a 50% chance of getting tails when you flip the coin, assuming it's a fair and
unbiased coin.
EXAMPLE # 2
Problem: You have a bag of colored marbles. There are 10 red marbles, 5 blue marbles, and 3 green marbles in the bag.
What is the probability of randomly selecting a red marble from the bag?

number of ways of selecting red = 10

total number of possible outcomes = 10+5+3 = 18

Probability of an Event (Single Event):

Probability = number of ways selecting red = 10 = 5

total number of possible outcomes 18 9

So, the probability of randomly selecting a red marble from the bag is 5/9 or approximately 0.5556 (rounded to four
decimal places). This means there is approximately a 55.56% chance of selecting a red marble when drawing randomly
from the bag.
 Sample Space and
Relationships among Events
PROBABILITY
DEFINITION

An experiment that can result in different outcomes,

even though it is repeated in the same manner every
time, is called a random experiment.
WHAT IS SAMPLE SPACE ?

The sample space, often denoted as "S," is the set of all

possible outcomes of a random experiment or a random
event.
EXAMPLE # 1

Problem: Suppose you have a fair, unbiased coin (where

both heads and tails are equally likely). What is the
sample space?

S = { head, tail}
EXAMPLE # 2

Problem: You have a bag of colored marbles. There are 10

red marbles, 5 blue marbles, and 3 green marbles in the
bag. What is the sample space?

S = { R, R, R, R, R, R, R, R, R, R, B, B, B, B, B, G, G, G}
EXAMPLE # 3

Problem: Imagine measuring the height of adult

individuals in a population. What is the sample space?

a=shortest height
b=tallest height

S = { x | a < x < b}
WHAT HAVE YOU OBSERVED?

S = { x | a < x < b}

S = { H, T}
DEFINITION

A discrete random variable is a random variable

with a finite (or countably infinite) range.
A continuous random variable is a random
variable with an interval (either finite or infinite)
of real numbers for its range.
Question:

In a deck of playing cards, what type of sample space is

associated with randomly selecting a card from the deck?
A) Discrete Sample Space
B) Continuous Sample Space

To answer, type the letter corresponding to your choice (e.g.,

"A" or "B").
Question:

In a deck of playing cards, what type of sample

space is associated with randomly selecting a
card from the deck?
A) Discrete Sample Space
B) Continuous Sample Space
Question:
Which of the following represents a continuous sample space?
A) Rolling a fair six-sided die
B) Measuring the temperature in degrees Celsius
C) Counting the number of cars in a parking lot
D) Flipping a coin

To answer, type the letter corresponding to your choice (e.g., "A," "B," "C," or
"D").
Question:

Which of the following represents a continuous

sample space?
A) Rolling a fair six-sided die
B) Measuring the temperature in degrees Celsius
C) Counting the number of cars in a parking lot
D) Flipping a coin
Tree Diagram

A tree diagram is a useful way to visualize a

sample space, especially when dealing with
multi-stage events or experiments.
EXAMPLE # 1

Problem: You have a fair coin and a six-sided fair die.

You decide to perform the following experiment: First,
you flip the coin, and then, based on the result of the coin
flip, you roll the die. Create a tree diagram to represent
the sample space for this experiment.
EXAMPLE # 1 TREE DIAGRAM:
1
2 What is the sample space?
3
H
4
5
6 S = {(H, 1), (H, 2), (H, 3), (H, 4),
1 (H, 5), (H, 6), (T, 1), (T, 2), (T, 3),
2 (T, 4), (T, 5), (T, 6)}
T 3
4
5
6
ACTIVITY !!!

Problem: You visit an ice cream shop that offers various

ice cream flavors and toppings. You decide to order an ice
cream cone with one scoop of ice cream and one topping.
The ice cream shop has three flavors (Chocolate, Vanilla,
Strawberry) and four toppings (Sprinkles, Chocolate
Chips, Caramel Sauce, Whipped Cream). Create a tree
diagram to represent the sample space for your ice cream
order.
 Step 1: Choose Ice Cream Flavor
ACTIVITY TREE DIAGRAM: Possible ice cream flavors: {Chocolate (C),
S Vanilla (V), Strawberry (S)}
STEP 3: CC Step 2: Choose Topping
CS Possible toppings: {Sprinkles (S), Chocolate
C Chips (CC), Caramel Sauce (CS), Whipped
WC
Cream (WC)}
S
CC What is the sample space?
V CS
S = {(C, S), (C, CC), (C, CS), (C,
WC
S WC), (V, S), (V, CC), (V, CS), (V,
CC WC), (S, S), (S, CC), (S, CS), (S,
S
CS WC)}
DEFINITION

An event is a subset of the sample space of a random

experiment.
EXAMPLE #1

Scenario 1: Coin Toss

Sample Space: S = {Heads (H), Tails (T)}
Events:
Event A: Getting Heads (H)
Event B: Getting Tails (T)
EXAMPLE #2

Scenario 2: Rolling a Six-Sided Die

Sample Space: S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Events:
Event X: Rolling an even number (2, 4, or 6)
Event Y: Rolling a number greater than 3 (4, 5, or 6)
Event Z: Rolling a 3
EVENTS
Some of the basic set operations are summarized below in terms of events:
● Intersection of Events: The intersection of two events A and B, denoted as
A ∩ B, represents the set of outcomes that are common to both events. In
other words, it includes all outcomes that belong to both A and B.
● Union of Events: The union of two events A and B, denoted as A ∪ B,
represents the set of outcomes that belong to either event A or event B or
both.
● Complement of an Event: The complement of an event A, denoted as A',
represents all outcomes in the sample space that are not part of event A.
● Mutually Exclusive Events: Two events A and B are mutually exclusive if
they cannot occur simultaneously. In other words, their intersection is an
empty set (A ∩ B = ∅).
Venn diagram

A Venn diagram is a graphical representation used to

visualize the relationships between sets or groups of
objects, elements, or events. In the context of probability
and statistics, Venn diagrams are often used to depict the
relationships between different events or sets of
outcomes.
Venn diagram
ACTIVITY!!!
Three events are shown on the Venn diagram in the following figure:

Reproduce the figure and shade the region that

corresponds to each of the following events.

1. A’ A B
S
2. A∩B
3. (A ∩ B) ∪ C
4. (B ∪ C)’
5. (A ∩ B)’ ∪ C
C
ACTIVITY!!!
Three events are shown on the Venn diagram in the following figure:

Reproduce the figure and shade the region that

corresponds to each of the following events.

1. A’
2. A∩B A B
S
3. (A ∩ B) ∪ C
4. (B ∪ C)’
5. (A ∩ B)’ ∪ C
C
ACTIVITY!!!
Three events are shown on the Venn diagram in the following figure:

Reproduce the figure and shade the region that

corresponds to each of the following events.

1. A’
2. A∩B A B
S
3. (A ∩ B) ∪ C
4. (B ∪ C)’
5. (A ∩ B)’ ∪ C
C
ACTIVITY!!!
Three events are shown on the Venn diagram in the following figure:

Reproduce the figure and shade the region that

corresponds to each of the following events.

1. A’
2. A∩B A B
S
3. (A ∩ B) ∪ C
4. (B ∪ C)’
5. (A ∩ B)’ ∪ C
C
ACTIVITY!!!
Three events are shown on the Venn diagram in the following figure:

Reproduce the figure and shade the region that

corresponds to each of the following events.

1. A’
2. A∩B A B
S
3. (A ∩ B) ∪ C
4. (B ∪ C)’
5. (A ∩ B)’ ∪ C
C
ACTIVITY!!!
Three events are shown on the Venn diagram in the following figure:

Reproduce the figure and shade the region that

corresponds to each of the following events.

1. A’
2. A∩B A B
S
3. (A ∩ B) ∪ C
4. (B ∪ C)’
5. (A ∩ B)’ ∪ C
C
EXAMPLE #1

Suppose you have two events, Event A and Event B, related to

rolling a six-sided die.
Event A: Rolling an even number (2, 4, or 6)
Event B: Rolling a number greater than 3 (4, 5, or 6)

a) Describe the outcome of Event A ∪ B.

b) Describe the outcome of Event A ∩ B.
c) Describe the outcome of A’.
EXAMPLE #1

Suppose you have two events, Event A and Event B, related to

rolling a six-sided die.
Event A: Rolling an even number (2, 4, or 6)
Event B: Rolling a number greater than 3 (4, 5, or 6)

a) Describe the outcome of Event A ∪ B. A ∪ B = {2, 4, 5, 6}

b) Describe the outcome of Event A ∩ B. A ∩ B = {4, 6}
c) Describe the outcome of A’. A’ = {1, 3, 5}
 Counting Rules Useful in
Probability
PROBABILITY
Multiplication Rule
The Multiplication Rule states that if
there are m ways to do one thing
(Event A) and n ways to do another
thing (Event B), then there are
m*n
ways to do both things together
(Events A and B).
Permutations
Permutations refer to the
arrangements of objects in a specific
order. The number of permutations of
n objects taken k at a time is given by
the formula
P(n, k) = k! / (k - r)!
where "!" denotes factorial. In
permutations, the order in which
objects are arranged matters.
Combinations
Combinations refer to selections of
objects without regard to the order in
which they are selected. The number
of combinations of n objects taken r at
a time is given by the formula
C(n, r) = n! / (r!(n - r)!)
where "!" denotes factorial. In
combinations, the order of selection
does not matter.
EXAMPLE #1
Problem: You have a deck of 52 playing cards. You want to find out how many ways
you can draw a card and then roll a fair six-sided die.
EXAMPLE #1
Solution:
Number of ways to draw a card from a deck of 52: m = 52 (Event A).
Number of ways to roll a fair six-sided die: n = 6 (Event B).
To find the total number of ways to draw a card and then roll a die, you use the Multiplication
Rule:

Total ways = m * n = 52 * 6 = 312 ways

So, there are 312 different outcomes when you draw a card and then roll a die.
EXAMPLE #2
Problem: You have a set of 5 different books, and you want to arrange them on a
shelf. How many different ways can you arrange these books if the order matters?
EXAMPLE #2

Solution:
Number of books (n) = 5
You want to arrange all 5 books (k = 5)
Using the permutation formula:
P(5, 5) = 5! / (5 - 5)! = 5! / 0! = 5! / 1 = 5 * 4 * 3 * 2 * 1 = 120
So, there are 120 different ways to arrange the 5 books on the
shelf.
EXAMPLE #3
Problem: You have 8 friends, and you want to choose a group of 3 friends to go on
a hiking trip. How many different combinations of 3 friends can you choose from
the group?
EXAMPLE #3
Solution:
Number of friends (n) = 8
You want to choose a group of 3 friends (r = 3)
Using the combination formula:
C(8, 3) = 8! / (3!(8 - 3)!) = 8! / (3! * 5!)
= (8 * 7 * 6*5*4*3*2*1) / (3 * 2 * 1)(5*4*3*2*1) = 56
So, there are 56 different combinations of 3 friends that you can choose to go on
the hiking trip.
 Rules of Probability
PROBABILITY
Independent Events

Two events A and B are independent if the occurrence of one

does not affect the probability of the other.

Mathematically, P(A | B) = P(A), and P(B | A) = P(B).

Conditional Probability

The probability of event A occurring given that event B has

occurred is denoted as P(A | B) and is calculated as

P(A | B) = P(A ∩ B) / P(B)

Addition Rule

The probability of the union of two events A and B is given by

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B); if 2 events are mutually exclusive
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B),
where P(A ∩ B) represents the probability of their
intersection.
Multiplication Rule for Independent Events

If two events A and B are independent, then the probability

of both events occurring is given by

P(A ∩ B) = P(A) * P(B).

Rule of Subtraction (Complement Rule)

The probability of the complement of an event A (denoted as

A') is equal to 1 minus the probability of event A.
Mathematically, it can be expressed as:
P(A ′ )=1−P(A)

Where: P(A) represents the probability of event A.

EXAMPLE #1

Suppose you have a standard deck of 52 playing cards. What

is the probability of not drawing a spade when you draw one
card from the deck?
EXAMPLE#2

You have a standard deck of 52 playing cards. Calculate the

probability of drawing either a spade or a heart when you
draw one card from the deck.
EXAMPLE#3

You roll a fair six-sided die. Calculate the probability of

rolling either an even number or a number greater than 3.
EXAMPLE#4
You flip a fair coin twice. Find the probability of getting heads (H) on the first flip
and tails (T) on the second flip.
EXAMPLE#5
You draw two cards from a standard deck of 52 playing cards without
replacement. Find the probability of drawing a red card (Hearts or Diamonds) on
the first draw and then drawing a black card (Clubs or Spades) on the second
draw.
EXAMPLE#6
Suppose you have a standard deck of 52 playing cards. You draw one card from
the deck and then draw a second card from the remaining deck without
replacement. Calculate the probability that the second card drawn is a red card
(Hearts or Diamonds) given that the first card drawn was a red card.
 Thank You

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