Discrete Probability

Distributions
Engineering Data Analysis (ES209)
Introduction

This module will help you understand and

predict the behavior of complex systems or
analyze experimental, financial, and biological
data.
LEARNING OBJECTIVES

At the end of this module, you are expected to:

● To learn the concept of the probability distribution of
a discrete random variable.
● To learn the concepts of the mean, variance, and
standard deviation of a discrete random variable, and
how to compute them.
● Understand the Binomial and Poisson Distribution
and its application
What is Discrete Probability
Distribution?
What is Discrete Probability Distribution?

A discrete probability distribution is a

statistical distribution that describes the
probabilities of the possible outcomes of a
discrete random variable.
What is Discrete Random Variable?

Discrete random variable is a variable that can

take any whole number values as outcomes of a
random experiment. The discrete random
variable takes a countable number of possible
outcomes and it can be counted as 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, .....
Two conditions that a discrete probability distribution must satisfy

0 ≤ P(X = x) ≤ 1 this implies that the probability of a

discrete random variable, X, taking on an exact value, x, lies
between 0 and 1
∑P(X = x) =1 this implies that the sum of all
probabilities must be equal to 1
EXAMPLE
Suppose a fair dice is rolled and the discrete probability distribution has to be
created. The possible outcomes are {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Thus, the total number of
outcomes will be 6. All numbers have a fair chance of turning up. This means that
the probability of getting any one number is 1 / 6. Using this data the discrete
probability distribution table for a dice roll can be given as follows:
 How To Find Discrete
Probability Distribution?
How To Find Discrete Probability Distribution?

1. Determine the sample space of the experiment.

2. Define a discrete random variable, X.
3. Identify the possible values that the variable can
assume.
4. Calculate the probability associated with each
outcome.
5. To get the discrete probability distribution represent
the probabilities and the corresponding outcomes in
tabular form or in graphical form.
EXAMPLE

Problem: You are rolling a fair six-sided die (a

common example in probability). Find the
discrete probability distribution for the random
variable X, which represents the number rolled.
ACTIVITY
You are conducting a survey to understand how many children are in each
household in a neighborhood. The random variable X represents the number of
children in a randomly selected household. You want to find the discrete
probability distribution for the number of children.

Let's say you collected data from 100 households in the neighborhood, and you
found the following distribution:

20 households have 0 children.

35 households have 1 child.
30 households have 2 children.
10 households have 3 children.
5 households have 4 children.
Discrete Probability
Distribution Formula
Probability Mass Function PMF
can be defined as a function that gives the probability of a discrete random
variable, X, being exactly equal to some value, x. This function is required when
creating a discrete probability distribution.

The formula is given as follows:

P(x) = P(X = x)
Cumulative Distribution Function CDF
gives the probability that a discrete random variable will be lesser than or equal
to a particular value. The value of the CDF can be calculated by using the discrete
probability distribution.

Its formula is given as follows:

F(x) = P(X ≤ x)
Mean
gives the weighted average of all possible values of the discrete random variable.
It is also known as the expected value.

The formula for the mean of a discrete random variable is given as follows:

μ = ∑x P(X = x)
Variance
gives the dispersion of the distribution about the mean. It can be defined as the
average of the squared differences of the distribution from the mean, μ.

The formula is given below:

σ² = ∑(x - μ)²P(X = x)
Standard Deviation
is the square root of its variance, hence is given by the formulas:
EXAMPLE
A discrete random variable X has the following probability distribution:
Compute each of the following quantities.
a. a
b. P(0) x -1 0 1 4
c. P(X > 0)
d. P(X ≥ 0) P(X = x) 0.2 0.5 a 0.1
e. P(X≤−2)
f. The mean μ of X
g. The variance σ² of X
h. The standard deviation σ of X
ACTIVITY
A civil engineer is studying the number of structural defects in a batch of concrete
blocks produced by a manufacturing plant. The random variable X represents the
number of defects per block, and the engineer has collected data to create a discrete
probability distribution for X. The probabilities are as follows:

x 0 1 2 3
P(X = x) z 0.35 0.15 0.05

The engineer wants to calculate several key statistical measures:

1. Find the expected number of defects per concrete block.
2. Calculate the variance to measure the spread or variability in the number of
defects.
3. Compute the standard deviation to understand the typical deviation of the number
of defects from the mean.
Discrete Probability
Distribution Types
Binomial Distribution
is the probability distribution that is discrete and applicable to events having only
two possible results in an experiment, either success or failure.

where:
n = the number of experiments/trials
x = number of success desired
p = probability of success
1-p = probability of failure
n-x = number of failure
EXAMPLE: Binomial Distribution

PROBLEM: If a coin is tossed 5 times, using

binomial distribution find the probability of:
(a) Exactly 2 heads
(b) At least 4 heads
EXAMPLE: Binomial Distribution

PROBLEM: A balanced, six sided die is rolled 3

times. What is the probability a 5 comes exactly
twice?
Poisson Distribution
is a discrete probability distribution that is widely used in the field of finance. It
gives the probability that a given number of events will take place within a fixed
time period. The notation is written as X ∼ Pois(λ), where λ>0. The pmf is given by
the following formula:

where:
x = the number of occurrence
e = Euler's number (e = 2.71828...)
λ = an average rate of the expected value and λ = variance, also λ>0
Properties of Poisson Distribution
● The events are independent.
● The average number of successes in the given period of time alone can
occur. No two events can occur at the same time.
● The Poisson distribution is limited when the number of trials n is indefinitely
large.
● mean = variance = λ
● np = λ is finite, where λ is constant.
● The standard deviation is always equal to the square root of the mean μ.
● The exact probability that the random variable X with mean μ =a is given by
P(X= a) = μa / a! e -μ
● If the mean is large, then the Poisson distribution is approximately a normal
distribution.
Applications of Poisson Distribution
● To count the number of defects of a finished product
● To count the number of deaths in a country by any disease or natural
calamity
● To count the number of infected plants in the field
● To count the number of bacteria in the organisms or the radioactive decay in
atoms
● To calculate the waiting time between the events.
EXAMPLE: Poisson Distribution

Problem: In a cafe, the customer arrives at a

mean rate of 2 per min. Find the probability of
arrival of 5 customers in 1 minute using the
Poisson distribution formula.
ACTIVITY!!!
Problem #1: In a civil engineering project, there are 12 soil samples, and each has
a 10% chance of containing contaminants. What is the probability that exactly 3 of
the soil samples are contaminated?

Problem #2: In geodetic engineering, you are monitoring the number of satellite
signal interruptions experienced in a 1-hour period due to atmospheric
conditions. On average, you observe 4 interruptions per hour. What is the
probability of experiencing 3 or fewer interruptions in the next hour?
 Thank You

NEXT >> Continuous Probability Distribution