04 February 2023 Q3FY23 Result Update

Tata Power
Continues to deliver strong performance

In Q3FY23, Tata Power’s consolidated revenue increased 29.5% YoY to INR141bn, below our
estimate of INR150bn (-5.5%). Strong operational performance across its regulated, standalone
(including Mundra), coal SPV and renewable business were the key underpinnings. EBITDA grew
marginally by 42.9% YoY on the back of higher availability at Mundra, capacity addition in
renewables and higher efficiencies in the distribution business. Profit improved significantly in the
Indonesian coal business (+53.3% YoY), led by high coal prices. Accordingly, consolidated PAT
increased 121.9% YoY to INR9.5bn, which was below our estimate of INR10.8bn. As Sec 11 was not
extended beyond Dec-22, CGPL operated only one unit in January. However, management is
confident about signing a supplementary PPA with GUVNL as the discussion is in the advanced
stages. Odisha discoms’ AT&C losses reduced to 26% in Q3FY23 vs 36% in Q3FY22. We have
maintained our estimates and SoTP of INR243, factoring in margin restoration in its EPC business,
healthy demand in its distribution circles, lower AT&C losses across Odisha circle and growing
renewable business. Accordingly, we maintain our ADD rating.

 Q3FY23 highlights: Consolidated revenue grew by 29.5% YoY to INR141bn, led by strong
performance in Mundra under standalone (+74.4% YoY) and healthy demand in the Odisha circle.
EBITDA increased 42.9% YoY to INR23.3bn while the margin increased 155bps YoY to 16.5% as the
Mundra plant operated at full capacity. Profitability improved in the Indonesian coal business
(+53.3% YoY), led by high coal prices. Accordingly, consolidated PAT increased 121.9% YoY to
INR9.5bn.

 Reiterate ADD: The company’s planned 4GW of the extended module and cell capacity is
expected to be rolled out in September 2023 and December 2023 respectively. Its EPC order book
remains strong at INR154bn (3.9GW) and is gaining traction. Renewable Energy capacity increased to
6.1GW in Q3FY23 with an installed capacity of 3.9GW and 2.2GW is under various stages of
implementation. Post-December, Sec 11 was not extended and the company operated only 1 unit of
the Mundra plant in January. However, it expects to sign a supplementary PPA with Gujarat and
later with other beneficiaries on similar lines to Sec 11. We maintain ADD rating with SoTP of
INR243, factoring in margin restoration in its EPC business, healthy demand in its distribution circles,
lower AT&C losses across Odisha circle, and growing renewable business.

ADD
CMP(as on 03 Feb 2023)
Target Price
NIFTY 17,854

INR 205 INR 243

KEY CHANGES

Rating Price Target

EPS Change %

KEY STOCK DATA

Bloomberg code
No. of Shares (mn)
MCap (INR bn) / ($ mn)
6m avg traded value (INR mn) 52 Week high / low
STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 3M

OLD NEW

ADD ADD INR243 INR243 FY23E FY24E --

TPWR IN 3,195 656/8,009 3,119 INR 298/190

Absolute (%) Relative (%)

(9.7) (9.7)

6M

(11.7) (16.0)

12M

(18.8) (22.3)
Dec-22

46.9 14.6 9.6 28.9

Financial summary

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) Sep-22

Promoters 46.9 FIs & Local MFs 14.5 FPIs 10.3

Public & Others

Source : BSE

Anuj Upadhyay

28.8
Pledged Shares 0.7 0.7

(INR mn, Mar YE)

NetRevenues APAT

P/E (x) RoE (%)

Source: Company, HSIE Research

3Q 3Q FY23 FY22

1,41,291 1,09,131
9,450 4,259 121.9 8,191 15.4 17,416

YoY 2Q (%) FY23

QoQ (%)

FY22

FY23E

4,94,422 27,948

23.6 11.8

FY24E

5,41,140 29,138

22.6 11.2

FY25E

5,89,843 34,235

19.2 11.9
29.5 1,40,307

0.7 4,28,157

EBITDA 23,348 16,339

17,604 32.6 75,113 1,16,951 1,26,548 1,41,883
42.9
Diluted EPS
(INR)
2.56 15.4 5.4 8.7 9.1 10.7

2.96 1.33 121.9

37.8 10.5

Anuj.upadhyay@hdfcsec.com +91-22-6171-7355

Hinal Choudhary

P/B (x) 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.2

hinal.choudhary@hdfcsec.com +91-22-6171-7349

HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF <GO> & Thomson Reuters

Tata Power: Q3FY23 Result Update

SoTP valuation

Business

Mumbai Operations

Powerlinks - 51% stake IEL - 74% stake

Bumi stake

4GW Mundra UMPP International Power Ventures TPREL

Tata Solar Mfg/EPC Investments
Other investments (MFs) Non Project debt

Source: Company, HSIE Research

Segment

Generation and T&D

Transmission JV Captive – Tata Steel Coal mining

Power Generation Power Generation Power Generation EPC

% stake holding

Tata power share (%)

100%

51% 74%

100% 50%

100%

Method Regulated Equity Rs RoE

bn (x)

P/BV 43.0 17.0% 16.0%

P/BV 4.7 15.9% 16.9% P/BV 7.3 16.0%

EV/EBITDA

Implied Valn (Rs bn)

94

5 11 47

59

12 236 54

13 -113

Value/ shr (Rs)

29

3 15

19 4 74 17

4 -35

 Mundra Plant: Tata Power had been operating the Mundra power plant under Sec 11 from May
2022 till Dec 2022. However, the arrangement was not extended beyond December and the company
operated only a single unit in January. The company now expects to sign a supplementary PPA on
similar lines as Sec 11 arrangement with Gujarat and later with other beneficiary states. However, this
would also include sharing of profits earned on its Indonesian mine for the quantum of coal used
specifically in Mundra. However, the above arrangement would still be beneficial for the company in
bringing down the Mundra under recovery. We assume that unless these long-term PPAs are signed,
the Mundra project won’t operate at full capacity and will not have any major impact on the long-
term sustainability of PAT.
 EPC and Other shining businesses: EPC segment’s revenue declined by 8.4% YoY to INR14.3bn
due to the slow execution of large projects led by a change in timelines resulting from high module
prices. The segment’s EBITDA also declined 42% YoY to INR960mn. However, starting in December,
there has been a huge price correction in polysilicon, wafer, cell and other raw material costs and
therefore the orders which were affected because of high prices will get executed. The order book is
strong at INR154bn (3.9GW order book). In Rooftop, Tata Power commissioned 127MW capacity in
Q2FY23, and won a 102MW order, taking the total value to INR1,375 cr (1.3GW order book). The
company installed nearly 12,000 solar pumps in Q3, reaching the cumulative total of 29,000 pumps of
its total aim of adding 80,000 pumps.

Multiple
2.2

2.0 2.0 4

Mumbai other segments (Wind, Jojobera, Generation

100% P/BV 7.4
haldia)
2.5 18 6
Delhi Distribution (NDPL) Distribution Licensee 51% P/BV 18.7
2.2 21 6
Maithon Power Power
74% DCF
generation
21 6
Orissa (CESU, WESCO, SOUTCO. Distribution Licensee NESCO) 51% DCF
33 10

DCF
P/BV 6.5 15.0% EV/EBITDA 26
P/E 12

Tata Power Trading Trading P/E

10 41
1.8 9.0

Renewable EBITDA (INR bn)

WREL (Welspun Acq) Power Generation EV/EBITDA 10.5

9.
94 30
0
EV and Solar Pump
P/E
business
12 35 11
Tata Projects stake EPC 48% EV/EBITDA
7 23 7
Cash on
Book
66 21

Tax saving benefit on Mundra merger

TPWR SOTP Valn

32 10

775 243

Page | 2

Tata Power: Q3FY23 Result Update

Financials (Stand)
INCOME STATEMENT

INR mn NetRevenues

Power&Fuel Employee Cost EBITDA

EBIDTA Growth (%) EBIT
Interest
Tax
Profit from Associates Minority Interest APAT Growth (%)

Source: Company, HSIE Research

BALANCE SHEET

INR mn
SOURCES OF FUNDS

Reserves Long-term Debt Total Debt

TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS Net Block

Investments

Debtors
ST Loans & Advances Creditors

Source: Company, HSIE Research

FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E 2,68,403 2,98,811 2,91,364 3,27,033 4,28,157 4,94,422 5,41,140 5,89,843

1,68,113 1,95,367 1,74,101 2,05,715 2,76,325 2,93,569 3,26,669 3,54,831 13,819 13,391 14,406 23,167 36,115 37,921 38,679 39,453
Growth (%) -3.8 11.3 -2.5 12.2 30.9 9.4
15.5 9.0
Purchase of electricity 55,973 66,078 64,345 88,390 1,56,588 1,52,828 1,58,488 1,63,890
O&M and Other expenses 23,741 22,602 23,428 28,125 40,604 45,981 49,244 53,676
62,729

0.8

39,268

37,615 1,643 15,539 -2,026 -1.4

FY18

1,61,294 4,85,892 4,85,892

6,89,098 4,94,350 1,24,289

1,07,027 49,820 1,26,068

67,451

7.5

43,520

38,252 10,876 14,018 -2,495

-15.7

FY19

1,79,507 4,85,060 4,85,060

7,08,537 4,98,470 1,30,181

1,18,378 43,001 1,27,083

79,428

17.8

53,093

44,937 6,360 9,526

-2,991

13.2

FY20

1,92,955 4,83,759 4,83,759

7,24,363 5,39,194 1,45,348

1,13,579 44,037 1,67,138

70,027
-11.8

42,578

40,104 5,019 8,734

-3,113

5.9

FY21

2,20,027 3,84,812 3,84,812

6,47,239 5,49,367 1,31,491

1,42,976 46,866 3,28,336

75,113

7.3

43,891

38,590 3,796 19,428 -4,142 74.0

FY22

2,21,220 4,75,900 4,75,900

7,46,518 5,67,744 1,41,603

1,63,973 1,00,453 3,66,698

1,16,951

55.7

80,745

43,281 14,346 8,154 -4,349 16.4

FY23E

2,44,718 4,85,900 4,85,900

7,84,364 5,66,091 1,41,603

1,89,641 1,08,366 3,79,282

1,26,548

8.2

85,242
44,181 16,296 6,939 -4,566 4.4

FY24E

2,69,107 4,95,900 4,95,900

8,23,320 5,61,188 1,41,603

2,14,973 1,11,193 3,85,469

1,41,883

12.1

95,796

45,081 19,676 5,988 -4,794 15.8

FY25E

2,98,234 5,05,900 5,05,900

8,67,241 5,51,512 1,41,603

2,42,401 1,19,584 3,71,681

EBITDA Margin (%) 23.4 22.6 27.3 21.4 17.5 23.4

23.7 24.1
Depreciation 23,462 23,931 26,336 27,449 31,222
41,306 46,087
36,206
Other Income (Including EO Items) 4,327 3,862 5,626 4,392 9,200 3,526 5,500 5,501
PBT 1,881 10,163 11,894 12,226 12,105 38,490 43,061 52,717
RPAT 238 -713 5,535 7,207 8,310
26,765 33,042
24,143
EO (Loss) / Profit (Net of Tax) 11,025 12,751 -1,896 -1,555 -7,726 0 00
APAT 24,777.0 23,561.9 10,228.8 11,273.8 17,415.6 27,948.4 29,138.2 34,235.1
AEPS 9.2 8.7 3.8 3.5 5.4
9.1 10.7
8.7
Share Capital 2,705 2,705 2,705 3,196 3,196
3,196 3,196
3,196
Total Shareholders’ Funds 1,63,999 1,82,212 1,95,660 2,23,223 2,24,416 2,47,914 2,72,303 3,01,430
Short-term
Debt
Deferred revenues & Regulatory deferral A/C credit balance
10,333 10,333
19,053 19,598 21,623 9,931 10,333 10,333
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
CWIP 16,526 25,757 16,115 35,998 46,351
46,351 46,351
46,351
Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets 6,35,165 6,54,408 7,00,658 7,16,856 7,55,698 7,54,045 7,49,143 7,39,466
Inventories 16,231 17,064 17,524 18,848 42,315 40,637 41,512 43,632
Cash & Equivalents 11,858 7,875 20,942 61,127 66,407 86,587 1,07,598 1,09,468
Total Current Assets 1,84,935 1,86,318 1,96,081 2,69,816 3,73,148 4,25,232 4,75,276 5,15,086
Provisions 4,934 5,106 5,238 11,097 15,630 15,630 15,630 15,630
Total Current Liabilities 1,31,002 1,32,189 1,72,376 3,39,433 3,82,328 3,94,912 4,01,099 3,87,311
Net Current Assets 53,933 54,129 23,705 -69,617 -9,181 30,319 74,177 1,27,775
TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 6,89,098 7,08,537 7,24,363 6,47,239 7,46,517
8,23,320 8,67,241
7,84,364

Page | 3

Tata Power: Q3FY23 Result Update

CASH FLOW STATEMENT

INR Mn

Reported PBT
Interest Expenses
Working Capital Change OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) Free Cash Flow (FCF) Non-operatingIncome

Source: Company, HSIE Research

KEY RATIOS
PROFITABILITY (%)

EBITDA Margin
APAT Margin
Core RoE
EFFICIENCY
Asset Turnover (x)
Debtors (days)
Cash Conversion Cycle (days) Net D/E

PER SHARE DATA

CEPS (Rs/sh) BV (Rs/sh) P/E EV/EBITDA FCF/EV (%)

Source: Company, HSIE Research

FY18

1,881 37,615 -25,029 63,639 68,136

FY19

FY20

FY21

12,226

FY22E

12,105

FY23E

38,490

FY24E

43,061
10,163 38,252 -3,635 45,738 8,455 4,327 3,862

FY25E
52,717

45,081 -51,727 66,980 30,570 5,626 4,392 9,200 3,526 5,500 5,501

11,894 44,937 45,516 73,753 49,806

40,104 1,21,815 1,92,183 1,34,678

38,590 -54,754 14,168 -45,783

43,281 -19,320 80,784 46,232

44,181 -22,847 83,905 47,501

Non-operating & EO Items 4,327 3,862 5,626 4,392 9,200

5,500 5,501
3,526
Depreciation 23,462 23,931 26,336 27,449 31,222
41,306 46,087
36,206
Tax Paid -1,643 -10,876 -6,360 -5,019 -3,796 -14,346 -16,296 -19,676
Capex 4,497 -37,283 -23,948 -57,505 -59,951 -34,553 -36,403 -36,410
Investments 10,820 8,127 -5,642 22,592 9,315
6,939 5,988
8,154
INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) -15,179 -3,192 -5,429 -37,155 -47,863 -22,874 -23,964 -24,920
Debt Issuance/(Repaid) -28,561 -832 -1,301 -98,947 91,088 10,000 10,000 10,000
Interest Expenses -37,615 -38,252 -44,937 -40,104 -38,590 -43,281 -44,181 -45,081
Other Financing activity 24,136 -3,811 -4,513 0 -6,181 0 00
Share Capital Issuance 0 0 0 26,000 0 0 00
Dividend -4,165 -4,104 -5,006 -1,793 -7,342 -4,450 -4,749 -5,108
FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) -46,205 -46,998 -55,757 -1,14,844 38,975 -37,731 -38,930 -40,189
NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) 2,317 -3,983 13,067 40,185 5,280 20,179 21,011 1,871
Opening cash balance 9,540 11,858 7,874 20,942 61,127 66,407 86,586 1,07,598
Closing Cash & Equivalents 11,858 7,874 20,942 61,127 66,407 86,586 1,07,598 1,09,468
FY18 FY19

23.4 22.6 0.1 -0.2 4.6 4.0

0.4 0.4 146 145 57 57 2.8 2.6

14.5 13.8 60.6 67.4 22.4 23.5 16.2 15.1

6.7 0.8

FY20

27.3 1.9 3.8

0.4 142 3 2.3

15.3 72.3 54.2 12.6

5.0
FY21 FY22 FY23E

21.4 17.5 23.7 2.2 1.9 4.9 3.3 3.1 3.2

0.5 0.6 0.6 160 140 140 -146 -64 -42 1.4 1.8 1.6

13.6 18.5 21.4 69.9 70.2 77.6 58.1 37.6 23.6 13.8 14.1 9.0 13.9 -4.3 4.4

FY24E FY25E

23.4 24.1 4.9 5.6 3.1 2.9

0.7 0.7 145 150 -23 11 1.4 1.3

23.5 26.6 85.2 94.3 22.6 19.2

8.2 7.4 4.6 2.9

GPM 16.5 12.5 18.2 10.1 -1.1 9.7 10.3 12.1

EBIT Margin 14.6 14.6 18.2 13.0 10.3
15.8 16.2
16.3
RoE 9.3 6.2 6.4 6.1 10.5
11.2 11.9
11.8
RoCE 6.0 5.1 5.5 5.4 6.4 7.2 7.3 7.8
Tax Rate (%) 87.3 107.0 53.5 41.0 31.4
37.8 37.3
37.3
Inventory (days) 22 21 22 21 36
28 27
30
Payables (days) 224 200 288 466 379 367 339 303
Net Debt/EBITDA (x) 7.3 6.9 5.7 4.4 5.4 3.4 3.0 2.8
Interest Coverage 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4
EPS (Rs/sh) 9.2 8.7 3.8 3.5 5.4 8.7 9.1 10.7
DPS (Rs/sh) 1.5 1.5 1.9 1.6 1.8
1.8 1.8
1.8
VALUATION
P/BV 3.4 3.0 2.8 2.9 2.9
2.4 2.2
2.7
OCF/EV (%) 6.3 4.5 7.3 19.9 1.3 7.7 8.0 6.4
Dividend Yield (%) 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.9
0.9 0.9
0.9

Page | 4

Tata Power: Q3FY23 Result Update RECOMMENDATION HISTORY

290 270 250 230 210 190 170 150

Tata Power TP

Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22

Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23

Dat CMP Reco Target

e

10-Feb-22 24-Feb-22 12-Apr-22 16-Apr-22 9-May-22 10-Jun-22 14-Jul-22 27-Jul-22 13-Oct-22 31-Oct-22 11-Jan-23 4-Feb-23

Rating Criteria

BUY: >+15% return potential

ADD: +5% to +15% return potential REDUCE: -10% to +5% return potential SELL: > 10% Downside
return potential

238 ADD 258 221 ADD 258 283 REDUCE 277 273 SELL 231 245 REDUCE 231 233 REDUCE 231 221 REDUCE 231 226 REDUCE
231 218 REDUCE 231 225 ADD 243 206 ADD 243 205 ADD 243
Page | 5

Tata Power: Q3FY23 Result Update

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Page | 6