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Well Cost - Basic Concepts Release 5000.1.12.0
Well Cost - Basic Concepts Release 5000.1.12.0
Well Cost - Basic Concepts Release 5000.1.12.0
Release 5000.1.12.0
Training Manual
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Contents
Exercise 5.1: Plan and Estimate the Cost of a Horizontal Well . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-3
Open the New Design . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5-4
Running the Simulator . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5-7
Exercise 6.1: Creating a Well Design with Offset Well Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-3
Naming the Design . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6-3
Open Test Design . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6-4
Offset Well Times by Phase . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6-6
Supporting Events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6-6
Specifying Offset Wells . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6-8
Sampling Statistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6-11
Examining the Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6-13
Single Phase Histogram . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6-14
Offset Well Times Plot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-16
Historical (Offset Well) Data at the Activity Level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6-17
Support . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A-1
Contacting Landmark Customer Support . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A-1
Support Via Web Portal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A-1
Regional Offices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A-2
In summary, Well Cost provides fast and accurate cost estimates, from
well design through the well life cycle. Well Cost also integrates cleanly
with existing tools to save time preparing the cost plan and generating
AFEs, while achieving consistent results. Just as importantly, Well Cost
enables statistical analysis so engineers and analysts can quickly
evaluate and quantify operations schedules and control risk.
Appendix A: Support
• Provides detailed information on Well Cost product support
Overview
Example
The following is an example of a simple problem with underlying
complexity that is more suitably solved by Monte Carlo methods than
conventional mathematical methods.
• You will come to an intersection with a traffic light that is red for
90 seconds and then green for 30 seconds.
You want to know how much time to allow for the commute so you have
a 75% probability of arriving at work on time; and for the occasions
when you have a important meetings, you also want to know how early
• Time and cost are depth dependent, and calculations can become
complicated when drilling multiple directional wells with varied
depths.
Note:
=INT(RAND()*6+0.999999)
8. Click the Excel Insert tab, and with cells K6:K105 selected, click
the Bar Chart icon. A horizontal bar chart is displayed.
97
89
81
73
65
57
49 Series1
41
33
25
17
9
1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
9. Copy Column K6:K105, and with your cursor in cell L6, right-click
and select Paste Special > Values.
10. Select L6:L105 and, using the sort option on the Data tab, sort the
values from the smallest to the largest.
11. With the interval L6:L105 selected, click the Insert tab, then click
the Bar Chart icon. A bar chart similar to the following is
displayed.
97
89
81
73
65
57
49 Series1
41
33
25
17
9
1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Note:
A six-sided die toss produces a uniform distribution between one and six.
1. First determine the average of the unsorted results. Put your cursor
in an empty cell and enter:
= AVERAGE(K6:K105)
The Well Cost software can automatically select the best distribution to
fit data available for an input process. Data to which a distribution is fit
normally comes from the following.
• Expert Data: the (expert) user enters the most likely value and
range of values based on experience and projections (rig
capability, contract costs, and so forth).
Uniform Distribution
The uniform distribution creates an equal spread of values between the
Minimum Value and Maximum Value.
Triangular Distribution
Triangular distribution creates a distribution based on a minimum value,
most likely peak and maximum value.
Lognormal Distribution
Lognormal is a variation on the Normal distribution that uses the log
(natural) of the input value. It will produce an asymmetric result (tail
heavy), depending on the standard deviation value. It is well suited to
normal times and short duration NPT time and is easy to derive from
offset data (or in Excel).
Advantages: simple to generate from historic time data (in Excel) and
also quite realistic for abnormal drilling times (long NPT chains).
Disadvantage: not for expert data, not good for depths and costs; can
produce extreme values (infinite times) but not very often.
PERT Distribution
The PERT distribution, a special case of the Beta distribution, is an
alternative to the triangular distribution and is specified by the same
inputs. While more complicated, the PERT distribution typically does a
better job of reflecting real-life situations and modelling the tails of the
distribution.
Stepped Distribution
The stepped distribution is similar to a Uniform distribution, except half
of the values generated are spread between the minimum (a) and most
likely (c) parameters while the other half are spread between the mostly
likely (c) and the maximum (b).
Probable Distribution
Probable distribution is the ability to generate an occurrence of a risk
activity. It is purely the percent chance of the occurrence of an event
(NPT activity).
• Activities: the user enters a cost and cost code associated with
the occurrence, such as the cost of Lost-in-Hole charge.
• Phases: for NPT, this combines both the probability and the
Most Likely and Maximum for a triangular distribution (the
minimum is assumed to be zero).
Discrete Distribution
Discrete distribution is available for Costs and Depths. It allows the user
to define two outcomes for a result and the probability of the first
occurrence. For instance, two wellheads are available; one costs
$125,000, the other is $250,000, and there is a 30% chance of the well
requiring the more expensive wellhead (or it being available).
• Mean – average
The distribution with the best fit in terms of these parameters is selected
when using the Run Sample Statistics button in the Offset Well pane
(see Chapter 6) or the Query for Distribution feature (see Chapter 7).
Correlation
Correlation is the percent dependence of one random sample on the
previous. In real-life terms, it is the dependence of one bad (or good)
occurrence to be followed by another bad (or good) occurrence. In
practical use in the program it is very hard to directly establish a value
for correlation. It can be calibrated by adjusting it as a tuning parameter
to alter the time spread of P10 and P90 to fit the best and worst cases on
offset well data.
• Time: this directly affects well time spreads between P10 and
P90 for all well operation times within a single well.
The table below shows the effect of changing correlation value on the
P10/P50/P90 times of the wells.
Overall 0 53 61 70
Well 50 51 61 75
Times 70 50 61 79
100 50 65 85
The following Time vs. Depth graphs below show 0% correlation on the
left and 100% correlated on the right. Notice the increase in spread.
In practice it has been found that a correlation of 50% works best for
phase time values, to match the overall spread between offset well times.
Similarly, 50% correlation provides acceptable results for both costs and
multiple wells.
Conclusions
Garbage input results in garbage output. In a Monte Carlo simulation,
however, it is hard to detect garbage in the results.
Overview
Martin
Temple Swenco Temple Lumber Deterministic
Master Creek 20-1 18-1 A-24-1 31-1 Data (TL)
Phase Time (hrs) Time (hrs) Time (hrs) Time (hrs) Time (hrs)
Drill 1st Intermediate Zone (12.25") to 4500' 182 305 246 473 182
Drill 2nd Intermediate Zone (8.5”) to 13,800' 197.5 216 224 316 197
The total cost for the new well will be based on the following
incremental costs.
• Probabilistic setup
Exercise Workflow
The first step is to create a new design in the Master Creek wellbore.
Now you will enter information about the well on the General
Information, Wellpath, Formation, and Casing panes.
Casing
When you are finished the Time Configuration pane should look like
the following image.
4. Open the Phases and Activities pane and confirm the data was
entered correctly.
Now that you have entered some times you can look at some of the
available output plots.
The plot shows the simple phase-based time vs. depth chart. You can
right-click the plot and select any of several other chart types.
8. To display the Well Schematic, right-click the Time vs. Depth plot
and on the right-click menu, select Well Schematic (image below).
You can modify a variety of options. Most of these options will not be
covered in this exercise, but you can see all available options by
exploring the tabs of the Options dialog. Context sensitive help is
available, which will help you learn about them.
For this exercise, you do not want to include Unplanned Time (NPT) for
every phase. You will use the Options dialog to turn off this setting.
You will now use the historical data from the other wells to generate a
probabilistic estimate for the completion time of the new well. You will
add the previous wells on the Offset Wells pane.
3. Select the Offset Wells pane. It will be populated with the design
phases entered earlier.
4. Click the User button on the Offset Well Selector section (see
image above) to specify the previous wells. The User Offset Wells
dialog is displayed (see below).
5. Add four rows, entering the names of the offset wells (Temple 20-1,
Swenco 18-1, Temple A-24-1, and Martin Lumber 31-1) in the
Well Name column.
6. Click OK to return to the Offset Wells pane, which will now show
the new wells in separate columns.
7. Enter the historical time values for each phase (these were
presented earlier).
Note:
If this historical data was available in the EDM database you could use the EDM
button in the Offset Well Selector section (see above) to automatically populate the
Offset Wells pane with the data from these wells.
At this point you can use the Export Well Data button (see above image)
to export these offset well definitions to a file (WCO). After the file is
created, you can use the Import Well Data button (see above image) to
load offset well definitions into another design. Experiment with this by
exporting the offset well data, pressing the User button and deleting all
the wellbore in the offset well pane, and then importing the offset well
data. The end result will be the same as when you started.
8. To look at the Offset Wells (Time vs Depth) Graph, put your cursor
in the plot area and right-click. On the right-click menu select
Offset Wells (Time vs Depth). This plot displays lines for each of
the offset wells, as well as the deterministic data entered early on
the Phases and Activities pane (Time vs. Depth) Graph and select
offset wells, as well as the deterministic data entered early on the
Phases and Activities pane.
10. Select the Variation Input tab. Check the Variations on Times
box and select the Phases radio button. Click OK to return to the
Offset Wells pane.
11. On the Offset Wells pane, click the Run Sample Statistic button
and the Well Cost software will fit the appropriate probabilistic
distribution and associated parameters to each phase, based on the
historical data brought in from the Offset Wells.
Simulation Results
When the simulation is complete you can analyze the results.
1. Place your cursor in the plot area and right click. On the right click
menu select XY Graph > Time vs. Depth. With your cursor on the
deterministic line, right click. On the right-click menu, select Freeze
Line. This will freeze the line and provide a basis for comparison
(when the line is frozen, it will turn black).
3. Position your cursor over one of the plotted lines and you will see
that the legend is updated with the nearest data point.
4. With your cursor in the plot area, right click. In the right-click menu
select XY Graphs > Time vs. P. Value to show the full range of
probable outcomes.
• P10: 10% of well times are likely to be better than this time
(optimistic)
• P50: 50% of well times are likely to be better than this time
(neutral)
For AFE Purposes a value of P55 is roughly the average time, but this
also depends on the tolerance of the project sponsors to budget overruns
and hence AFE extensions. A value of P75 may be useful, so only one
in four wells are likely to overrun. The P values are completely
configurable (through Input > Options), allowing you to use the values
that work best for you in your situation.
Entering Costs
To complete the design, the costs associated with drilling the well must
be entered (on the Cost Configuration pane).
• Tangibles: $1,000,000 (casing cost etc., the metal that you leave
in or on the well)
6. Expand Tangible (see image above), then expand 4000, and check
the Wellhead and Equipment box. This is where you will enter the
Tangible cost, as depicted below.
The Other Services cost will be entered as a custom cost item under Rig-
Rental.
10. To review the details of the cost calculations, select the Cost
Spreadsheet pane.
Before you can examine the effect of the costs on the design, you need
to run the simulation.
11. Select Actions > Run Monte Carlo or click the Monte Carlo
simulation icon ( ). When the simulation finishes, put your
cursor on the View panel and right click. On the right-click menu
select XY Graphs > Cost vs Depth.
You can also examine the Cost vs. P.Value plot, which is perhaps the
most useful graph for discussing the budget with the project sponsors.
1. Open the General Information pane and add the completion event.
In the Time Configuration pane you will see the OCM event has been
added.
These phases will also be shown in the Phases and Activities pane.
5. To populate the data for the new phases, click the Run Sample
Statistics button. On the resulting confirmation prompt, click Yes.
Note that you did not enter times for the two new phases to the Offset
Well data. In this case, you did not have any data for these phases. This
caused no distributions to be selected for the phases. The simulator will
simply use the deterministic values entered on the Phases and
Activities pane for these phases.
The Well Cost software will generate a complete AFE Report that saves
you time in creating the final cost report for management.
1. To run the AFE report, select Results > Reports > Well Cost AFE.
The Well Cost software prepares other output reports (spreadsheet and
PDF) and plots to help you analyze the results of the simulation. Explore
Note that if you are using OpenWells, Well Cost can transfer costs to
build the Cost Estimate and AFE Report or activities to populate the
Planned Operations section of the Well Planning Report (see the
Actions menu).
The Monte Carlo simulation creates a great amount of data that can be a
useful part of your analysis.
1. To see this information select Results > Reports > Monte Carlo
Results.
You will now be able to examine the spreadsheet tabs to see the output
tables and graphs. Note that the data and the corresponding graphs will
be on different tabs.
Overview
The estimator requires a detailed drilling program and cost estimate for
a planned vertical well. There is no offset well data, but there is
information from drilling experts on the range of variation of operation
times and tripping rates. The design will be made so it can be used as a
template for other wells of the same style but different depths. A range
of planned costs is also available.
Assume the well is vertical with total depth (TD) of 10,500. Though it
could be inclined, it does not matter as all the depths in this example are
specified as MD. No specific coding scheme is required, so the default
coding scheme in the database will be used.
Exercise Workflow
• Company: R Operator
• Project: Test Project0
• Site: Test Site
• Well: Test Well
• Wellbore: 1
4. Create the following entries using the Well Cost software built-in
editor or on the Casing pane.
5. To see the schematic, select View > View Panel. With your cursor
in the View pane, right click. On the right-click menu, select Well
Schematic. Your schematic is displayed; it should be similar to the
following image.
With the basic design and operations data configured in the design, the
next step is to configure some options.
1. Select Input > Options to display the Options dialog. On the Monte
Carlo tab of the Options dialog make sure the following values are
set:
P1 Level: 50
P2 Level: 10
P3 Level: 90
Number of iterations: 10,000
Default Distribution: Triangular
3. The Time Calculation tab should look like the following image (no
change).
P Levels: defaults to P50, P10, P90 – keep these values for this exercise;
however, you can customize the P levels as you like, to match the values
you normally use for generating AFEs
All phases must have an associated casing type. Some phases do not
require physical casing, so the casing types of Pre Well and Post Well
are provided. Pre Well is meant to designate those operations that occur
before the first casing section. Similarly, Post Well designates those
operations that occur after the last casing section.
The exercise in this chapter requires entering data for portions of the
first two phases. Create the two phases, as shown below, and associate
them with the 30” conductor casing.
Activity Configuration
The two main types of activities are:
For this training course, enter only the highlighted activities for the first
two phases (conductor hole section), as shown in the following image.
7. Configure the Drill 26” Hole with 36” Hole Opener using ROP:
The 2nd activity is a drilling activity, so click the ROP and Use
Distribution check boxes and enter the parameters as shown below.
8. For the third activity, “Circulate…,” enter the flat time range (1,2,4
hrs), as for the first activity.
10. Enter the fifth Activity (L/D 26” BHA) using flat time values of
1.5, 2, and 3 hours.
The above shows that during the Drill 26” hole activity, there is a 50%
chance that the bit will ball up. If this situation does occur, there is a 90%
chance that the result will be a minor time loss and a 10% chance that it
will be a major time loss. Follow the steps below to add these risks to
the well program.
11. With your cursor on the Drill 26” Hole Activity, right click. On the
right-click menus, select Add Risk Level 1.
Now add the two types of consequence: Major and Minor Lost Time.
13. In the tree, select Bit Balling. With your cursor on Bit Balling,
right-click. On the right-click menu select Risk Level 2. Add two
“Risk Level 2” items to the “Bit Balling” risk. In the Comment
field, enter the risk name Minor - Lost Time. Repeat this step to
create the risk name Major - Lost Time.
Major and Minor are Risk Level 2 activities. Although it appears they
are exclusive events, they are not. Well Cost software factors the time
into the analysis as probable risk.
16. To insert a new activity before the R/U BHA to Drill 36” activity,
select R/U BHA to Drill 36” and right click. In the right-click menu
select Insert Activity.
17. In the Type pull-down menu, select Risk Well. In the Comment
field enter Rig Repair.
18. In the tree, select Rig Repair. On the Use Distribution pull-down
menu, select Uniform. Enter values as depicted below.
With Probability set at 100%, the risk will occur once during the
well program at a random position.
19. In the tree, click Subsurface NPT. Set the configuration as follows
(see image below):
20. Enter the highlighted activities for the Second Phase: Run/Cement
Conductor Casing.
All of these activities follow the same pattern as for the first phase
(above), so no screen shots are provided. Remember to use ROP if the
units for the activity are ft/hr, Trip Rate if the units are joints/hr or
stands/hr, and Flat Time for anything else.
Note that two third-level activities are associated with the “Major – P/O
Cond. / Wiper Trip & Re-Run” activity, and these are different from the
other item types you have seen previously.
21. With your cursor on Major – P/O Cond. / Wiper Trip & Re-Run,
right click. On the right-click menu, select Add Risk Level 3. Add
these risk-planned activities (or remedial actions) as follows.
In this example two Risk Planned activities follow the Major Tight Hole
event when running the conductor. After entering information, your
phase and activity list should look like the following image.
Certain costs share similar attributes and are best analysed with the same
distribution type. Doing so facilitates applying variation for a number of
input cost items as the data entry is simplified. For your example, the
distribution you favour for cost items is the Uniform (as opposed to
Triangular for phase and activity times). The first thing you will do is set
up the Options dialog, to set Uniform as the Default Distribution.
1. On the Input menu select Options. When the Options dialog opens,
click the Default Distribution pull-down menu and select
Uniform. Click OK.
The complete cost list will comprise the items in the following table.
However, you will enter only highlighted items. The configuration of
the remaining items will be imported.
The cost pane automatically loads all configured cost codes into Class
(Tangible/Intangible in this case), Code (1000, 2000, 3000, and 4000 for
our example), and Subcode (various) nodes in the tree. In order to enter
the cost categories shown in the above table, a number of custom cost
items had to be created. You will create these items.
4. In the tree, select Similarly for Rig Mob/Demob Rate, Rig – Other.
In the Type pull-down menu select Lump Sum. In the Unit Cost
field enter 100,000.00. Setting up the cost in this way allocates
costs to phases in which they were incurred, proportioned by the
number of days spent in the phases. In this example, the cost will
only apply to the DRILL CONDUCTOR HOLE and RDMO
phases, so the Limit to Phases option will be used to restrict the
phases in which the cost occurs.
6. In the tree, click Rig - Fuel and enter data, as in the image below.
Type: Day
Use Distribution: Uniform
Minimum: 4,000.00
Maximum: 8,000.00
.
Type: Day
Use Distribution: Uniform
Minimum: 3,000.00
Maximum: 7,000.00.
For Multiple cost items of the same type (cost code), it is best to add as
single items under the same code (for example, drill bit cost).
9. In the tree, click Drill Bits. Right-click, and select Add Item. Add
four items.
10. Enter the data shown earlier for the four items. For example, enter
the configuration for the 12-1/4” bit as in the image below.
Note that only a simple single cost is required for the first two drill bits.
For the second two drill bits, a quantity of two is required, which you
can enter directly into the formula field.
Note:
The rate multiplier is 1.0 for every cost type except Day. For the Day cost type it is
the appropriate number of days.
Constants
Well Cost defines constants for use in the formulas.
HSIZE Hole diameter for the casing for this hole section
CSIZE Casing size for the casing for this hole section
BTMMD Casing shoe depth for the end of this hole section
BTTVD Casing shoe vertical depth
BTINC Inclination at the casing shoe depth (degrees)
TOPMD MD of the top of this casing
TOCMD MD of the top of cement
DTR Degrees to radians conversion
EXCH1 Exchange rate 1 (entered on the Options dialog)
EXCH2 Exchange rate 2 (entered on the Options dialog)
DAYS Number of days on this phase
TDEPTH Measured depth at the end of this phase (all phases)
PDEPTH Elapsed measured depth on this phase (drilled phases)
Functions Supported
Well Cost also supports the following functions in formulas.
SINH Hyperbolic sine
COSH Hyperbolic cosine
TANH Hyperbolic tangent
COTH Hyperbolic cotangent
ASIN Arc sine
ACOS Arc cosine
ATAN Arc tangent
ACOT Arc cotangent
SIGN -1 if the argument is negative; +1 if it is positive
SQR or SQRT Square root of the argument
SWON +1 if the argument is >= zero, 0 otherwise
SWOFF 0 if the argument is >= zero, +1 otherwise
SIN Sine
COS Cosine
TAN Tangent
COT Cotangent
ABS Absolute value of the argument
EXP e raised to the power of the argument
FAK Factorial
LN Natural log
LG Log base 10
X**Y or X^Y Raise X to the power Y, i.e. 5**2 = 25 and 5^2 = 25
Examples
Consider the case where the cement cost depends on the volume of
cement (barrels) of the annulus to be cemented (Well Cost assumes that
the values are in display units, in this case inches and feet). You can add
in excess.
In some cases a cost may only apply to a portion of the days in a given
phase (e.g., helicopters may only operate three days out of seven, or
directional drilling [hourly rates when in hole] may only be used from
the kick-off depth, which is half way through a drilling phase). To
implement such items, the formula field simply needs an entry of 0.5.
11. In the tree, expand Tangible > Wellhead and Equipment. Enter
data in appropriate fields.
Note that the cost for the casing is specified as cost/ft and the length in
feet of the casing string is put in the Formula field. Note also that there
are several ways of specifying casing cost (for example, with the type as
Tot. Depth or with type as Casing).
General Process
1. Select the Vendor/Contract/Item details. Many cost items are
particular to one or more vendor contracts. Thus, Well Cost allows
you to enter details of these contracts (vendor names, the associated
contract numbers, as well as the items included in those contracts,
with their description, cost, and formula) into a pick list which is
stored in the EDM database. When a cost item has at least one entry,
you will be able to select these catalogue items, which will then be
used to populate the other cost item information. This functionality
is covered in detail in the System Administrator course.
2. Enter a Unit Cost, i.e. the deterministic cost (no variation) that is
used to compute the total for the item.
3. Specify a Formula. For items that are priced by unit, such as drill
bits or casing joints, specify the number of units, such as two drill
bits at $25,000. You can also use this field to build equations as
described earlier.
5. Limit to Phases if the cost does not apply to all phases in the well
program. The Well Cost software allows you to select up to six
individual phases or ranges of phases. If no phases are specified,
the cost will apply to all phases.
Note:
Custom cost items can be deleted. Standard cost items, which are database pick list
driven, cannot be deleted.
Note:
Any cost item can be removed from the calculations and reports by unchecking the
box.
Before running the next simulation it is good practice to review the data.
You can obtain detailed views of the Deterministic, Probabilistic, and
Cost spreadsheets in the Phases and Activities pane. Selecting a phase
in the upper portion of the screen causes the activity detail to be shown
in the lower portion of the screen. In the following sample, the phase
Run/Cement Conductor Casing has been selected in the upper portion of
the screen.
At this stage, only deterministic times and activities are shown, as the
simulation has not yet been run.
Note:
Any cost item can be removed from the calculations and reports by unchecking the
box.
1. To run the Monte Carlo simulation, click the Run Monte Carlo icon
on the toolbar, or select Actions > Run Monte Carlo.
1. To access any of these, select View > View Panel or click the toolbar
icon ( ).
Data Reader
The XY graphs are enhanced with a data reader. The data value for the
line at the cursor position will be reported next to the legend. This is the
exact reading for the point closest to the cursor.
Note that the header of the graphs shows multiple costs in the header.
• Actual Cost — the actual cost that has been entered (or retrieved
depending on the method used) on the Phases and Activities
panel. The Actual Cost can be shown against the estimated
value, allowing for comparisons.
Note that the above costs will only be listed as P50, P10, and P90 if
Unplanned Time is included in the analysis (see the Include Unplanned
Time for Each Phase option on the Time Calculation tab of the Input >
Options dialog). If unplanned time is NOT included in the analysis, the
values shown will be U50, U10, and U90 (or as appropriate for the
selected P1, P2, and P3 values).
Also note that the P50 cost is not the same as the AFE cost from P50
time using static costs. This is because for times the results are sorted
into time order and the P50 sample is the midpoint value (5,000 of
10,000 runs). For cost, the cost results are sorted into order of cost and
the 5,000th value is taken. The cost order is not necessarily the same as
the time order, but normally it is quite close.
Risk Time
The “Config Spreadsheets” show the same data found in the Time Configuration and Cost
Configuration panes, but in spreadsheet format. The spreadsheets can be useful for exporting
and importing data into a spreadsheet program, such as Microsoft® Excel®.
Important!
• When working with the tree controls, some commands you will see
are:
• The check boxes turn on or off the phases, activities, and costs from
the main simulation. This feature is useful for templates in which
not all items are required in the well program.
Overview
The Estimator wants to quickly plan and estimate cost for a shallow
horizontal well based on the casing and drilling program of the previous
well. The tripping times and rates of penetration are salable to the
shorter casing depths. This is possible by creating a copy of the previous
design and making a few minor modifications.
All the details for the changes are presented in the Excel sheet “Input
Data (7150 Horizontal).xls” highlighted in yellow (this Excel file will be
provided to you by your instructor).
1. In the tree put your cursor on Test 10500 and right click. In the right-
click menu, select Copy.
2. Select the same wellbore and right click. On the right-click menu
select Paste. Rename it Horizontal 7150.
The intermediate depths for some operations can be changed using the
Length Override field. This field is available when deterministic Trip
Rate or ROP is selected. It is important to note that Trip Rate takes the
TD depth at the start or end of the current phase while ROP takes the
depth of the previous phase or casing and subtracts that number from the
current phase or casing, resulting in the elapsed depth. There are times
when these cascaded depths are not correct for the operation (as in our
case). For example:
• Running in hole with a liner (the liner may have a separate trip
speeds from the drill pipe)
For our example, the value entered in the Length Override field is the
trip interval, which is the absolute value of the Depth From, less the
Depth To.
This applies to the run cement production liner for the liner and DP
depths, and to the plug and abandon for the cement plug depths.
Change and add cost codes: Additional codes will have to be added for
the Directional Services and Standby Cost.
The following image is a Well Cost software AFE Report from the new
design.
Overview
Instead of basing the estimate on expert data, offset wells (also referred
to as historical data) can be the basis for the estimate. Any number of
available wells can be used, but normally the number of wells used is
between three and 100. In general, the larger the number of offset wells
the better the quality of the results.
Since the Monte Carlo simulation of time and cost for a planned well is
only as good as the quality of the input data, the quality of input data is
always a matter of concern. It is always best practice to review all input
values.
In the Well Cost software the offset well can come from almost any data
source, including:
• OpenWells Database
• A SQL database
• Other tabular format that can be put into the clipboard for later
pasting
Well Cost will analyse casing depths, phase and activity times, and costs
for variations, and apply a suitable distribution (PDF) with parameters.
The exercise in this chapter creates a well estimate using offset well
data.
3. Using the Associated Data View and the Well Explorer, drag-and-
drop (or copy-and-paste) the Wellpath, Formations, Casing, and
Tubing from the My ODR design onto Test Design, answering yes
to all confirmation prompts. Note that it is possible to copy multiple
items at the same time.
7. On the Options dialog, select the Variation Input tab. Click the
Variations on Times box and click the Phases radio button. Click
OK.
Supporting Events
The design supports the drilling, completion, and abandonment events.
For the purposes of this exercise, only the drilling event will be used.
8. On tree of the Time Configuration pane uncheck the boxes for the
OCM ORIG COMPLETION and ABN ABANDONMENT
events.
11. In the tree, select the Universal Exploration > Kodiak project.
Click the > button to select all the wells on this project. The Offset
Wellbore Data Selector will appear.
The offset well spreadsheet (upper spreadsheet in the panel) will now
look like the following image.
• Blank cells indicate that the Phase does not exist on the offset well.
• Unplanned time is computed for each phase, using the NPT Coding
scheme in OpenWells.
• Red values phases (drilled phases) are adjusted for the difference in
depth between the offset well phase and the planned well phase.
Overriding Values
Notice that the MIRU time for the KDS-07 well is 366.5 hours. The plan
for this well is only to skid the rig from an adjacent slot. In the case for
the KDS-07 well, the rig (a jack-up) was moved in from another
location. Thus, this does not look right for our sample data and we do
not want to consider it when fitting distributions to the data.
13. To remove it, check the Show Use Columns check box. In the Use
column before the value, select Don’t Use from the list of choices.
Sampling Statistics
15. To generate PDF (distribution) values for each phase of the offset
data, click the Run Sample Statistics button, answering Yes to
confirmation prompts.
The spreadsheet in the lower half of the pane will now appear as follows:
16. To run the simulation, click the Run Monte Carlo icon.
18. Using the right-click menu, select XY Graphs > Offset Wells.
19. Check the Show Offset Depths box to show the depths of each
phase in the offset well.
20. Before moving to the next section, uncheck the Show Offsets
Depths box.
The following image shows the distribution for the planned times on that
phase. The yellow is the simulation by the program and the purple is the
frequency of occurrence of this time on the offset wells.
22. Check Show Only Unplanned to show the distribution for the
unplanned times.
You can Show Only Unplanned if you like. The following image
shows the results for the phase DRILL TO PRODUCTION CASING/
LINER DEPTH.
23. On the Options dialog, enable the Variations on Times check box.
Click the Activities radio button.
24. Select the Offset Wells pane. You will see a row for the Planned
and Unplanned time for each activity currently in the well program.
The Run Sample Statistics is used to fit distributions to the activity data.
After clicking the button and acknowledging the confirmation prompt,
the data in the lower portion of the screen appears as follows.
Overview
You can use the Query function to compute the best fit distribution
parameters based on offset well data (or simply values pasted from a
spreadsheet). In this chapter you will look at examples.
You can access this function by clicking the Query button, which
appears in the Time and Cost Trees beside the Distribution value entry
point.
The exercises in this chapter deal with filtering distribution for the
following:
• Casing Depth
• Cost
• Activity
3. The Import Query File dialog appears. Click the Database radio
button. Select the Casings.wcq install drive. Click Open.
The query is run and the result set is displayed, as in the image below.
The values in the grid column are analyzed for their statistical
distribution. A graph is shown of the data (red) and the matched
distribution (green).
In this case a Uniform distribution has the best fit to the data. Click
Finish.
In the Time Tree, the values for the Casing Depth variation are filled in
with the new information.
The same process can be applied to cost items. In this case the
distribution is determined for the Rig – Rental cost.
1. Open the Options dialog and click the Variations on Cost box.
Click OK.
2. In the Cost Configuration pane, select the Rig – Rental item and
click the Query button.
1. For example, select BHA, BHA Pickup, P/U BHA in the DRILL
SURFACE HOLE phase and then click the Query button.
2. Use the database option on the resulting Import File and pick the
ActivityTime.wcq file. The result of the query will look like the
following image.
You may have thought that using the query tool will be a long process
to get a good picture on an individual cost basis as we have seen how
historical data can be used to fit distributions at both the phase and
activity level. Unfortunately there is no good automated way of doing
this for costs because of data quality and granularity issues.
Overview
There are two methods for working with wells that are partially
complete.
The current Plan vs. Actual Time vs. Depth can be plotted using the
“Offset Wells (Time vs. Depth)” plot.
1. Using the design completed in the last section (Test Design), change
Input > Options so analysis is done at the Phase level. Go to the
Time Configuration pane and include all phases of the Completion
and Abandon events in the analysis.
2. In the Offset Wells pane, click the EDM button to open the Offset
Well selector. Select all wells on the right side of the dialog and
click the Delete button (X). Click OK. The upper portion of the
Offset Wells panel will be empty.
3. Click the EDM button again and then add back the wells from
UNIVERSAL EXPLORATION (remember to remove TDP2002)
and then also add the current well (GRIZZLY GZ 1/16).
4. When you are finished, the upper portion of the Offset Wells pane
will look like the following image.
5. Re-run sample statistics and then run the simulator. This will update
the probabilistic distributions fit for all but the P10, P50, P90, and
GZ 1/16.
6. Select View > View Panel, then select the Offset Wells (Time vs.
Depth) plot, uncheck the Show Offset Depths option. Then put
your cursor over other wells and right click. In the right-click menu
select Hide Line for all but the P10, P50, P90, and GZ 1/16 lines.
Note that in this case the plot shows the depth going shallower for the
last hole section. This is because the casing definition has the Production
If you do not want the plot to show this backwards jump in depth, you
can click the Depth Plots not Backwards check box on the Cost
Calculation tab of the Options dialog.
Selecting this option causes the Offset Wells (Time vs Depth) plot to
look like the following.
The Well Cost software also supports the estimation of times and costs
from a partially completed well.
In this example, the first five phases have been completed. Work thus
far has taken three days, cost $1M, and has gone to a depth of 4,000 feet.
Note that if you check for a given phase, Well Cost assumes that all
phases above it are complete as well.
2. Check the Complete box for Drill 1st Intermediate Phase and the
first five phases will be marked as complete.
1. Alternatively, you can click the Get Actual Data from Reports
button to obtain the current status. The current days, cost, depth, and
phase is obtained from the last daily report of any comparable event.
In this example the well is complete so the total days, cost, and depth are
filled in and all phases are marked as complete.
Note:
All Times and Costs are computed from the start of the next incomplete phase using
the input starting values (cost, time, and depth).
Note:
When the Partially Complete Well option is unchecked, the design and results are
restored to the original well condition.
Overview
Well Cost has the capability for analyzing the times and cost of a
campaign of well operations. These can be:
The exercises in this chapter will help you understand how to create
estimates for the following scenarios:
• Wells in sequence
• Process improvement
• Batch operations
The following steps review the data in the Bore 1 design. This design is
identical to the ones for the other project wells.
1. Open the Bore 1 design and open the Wellpath pane to see nine
survey stations.
Note that all of the possible operations are included, whether they are
used in single wells or batch operations.
Some simple costs are entered on each design, such as $100,000 for the
day rate on the rig and a lump sum cost (Rig – Other) of $500,000.
4. Put your cursor on Bore 1 and right click. On the right-click menu
select New Design...
5. To make this a Multi-Well design, open the design, select Input >
Options, and click the Variation Input tab. Enter values as depicted
below.
All other options and dialogs will now be disabled, as they have no
function, because the purpose of this design is to connect the existing
single well designs into the campaign.
To define the design sequence open the Time Configuration pane or the
Config Spreadsheets. To can open Config Spreadsheets, select Input
> Config Spreadsheets.
You can also enter the design sequence using the Time Configuration
pane. To do this you simply add designs, as needed, to the project node.
All eight designs available in the project will be executed as part of the
multi-well project. This means we need to add each one to the top level
node. The order in which they are listed here will be the order in which
the simulator executes them. For simplicity we are using numerical
order, but in a real project you would use the order in which the wells
would be drilled (or completed, tested, and so forth). The Time Factor
(sometimes called learning curve) for each design is 100% as it is not
expected that there will be any improvement in execution time as the
execution team moves through the project. There is also no phase limit
for any of the wellbore. That is, all phases of the design will be executed.
6. When you have added and configured the designs, run the
simulator. When the simulation is finished examine the Time vs.
Depth Chart.
The chart shows all wells drilled in sequence to the same depth. The P50
time is around 64 days. Notice that there is a flat spot between wells.
This is because the MIRU (rig move) is included for all the wells. This
is removed by filtering the start phase from each design. The first well
includes MIRU, subsequent wells start with OTHER. This phase has
been configured to pick up the conductor driving equipment. Change the
configuration of sequence to be as follows.
This results in MIRU being performed only for the first well, RDMO
being executed only for the last well, and Other through Run/Cement
Surface Casing being executed for all wells.
7. Run the simulator again and the P50 time should be about 25 days.
Since this is a campaign, it is likely that the crew will perform faster as
they go, thus gaining an improvement over the original estimate. Well
Cost can simulate this through the Time Factor%, which is an element
of the Design Sequence. Assume there will be a 3% improvement for
each follow-on well. This would result in the following changes to the
design sequence configuration:
3. Change the Time Factor back to 100% for all items, run the
simulator, and click Save. This is required for comparison later on.
After changing the factors back and re-running the simulation,
verify that the P50 time is back to the 25-day value.
1. Copy the existing Wells in Sequence design and paste it into the
same wellbore. Rename the design to Wells in Batch.
When complete, your Time Configuration panel will look like the
following image (the second entry of Bore 5 is shown).
Note that Bore 8 (the last well) is the only well that is not duplicated in
the list.
2. Run the simulation and examine the Time vs. Depth Chart. The P50
is about 23 days (23.36).
1. Open the Wells in Sequence design, but do NOT close the Wells in
Batch design.
2. Select the Time vs. P Value Graph. Then turn on the compare
feature by checking the Compare box in the View Panel header. The
graph will show the lines from both designs, allowing you to see the
execution differences.
The design sequence also supports defining activities that are outside of
the well program defined for each well. Things like Site Preparation and
Reclamation are normally included here.
Reclamation Example
The following image is a reclamation example.
After making these changes, run the simulator. The P50 time will be
around 40 days.
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