Fallibility of Opinion Polls in India

Author(s): PRAVEEN RAI

Source: Economic and Political Weekly , MAY 3, 2014, Vol. 49, No. 18 (MAY 3, 2014), pp.
13-17
Published by: Economic and Political Weekly

Stable URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/24480214

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 COMMENTARY

Sabha thus may become a choice terrain Lok Sabha, will stick out as sore thumbs legislature with their abi
for intrigues among these abominable ef- from the midst of this cesspool. But they the masses in the streets, i
fluvia of self-serving, criminal and cor- can make a difference if they are sincere sist the domination and
rupt politicians which will flow from the in their commitment to the secular and of society by religio-polit
ongoing polls. democratic values embedded in our the Sangh parivar, as well as the corrup
The handful of honest and courageous Constitution. They will have to combine tion of our political system by the cor
individuals who may get elected to the their debating skills on the floors of the rate boss-politician-bureaucrat nexus.

Fallibility of Opinion Polls

the level of disaggregation for which
the data is required. Two, everyone in

in India the population should have an equal

chance of being selected in the sample.
Probability sampling based on random
method is the best way for ensuring
PRAVEEN RAI that everyone in the universe stands
an equal chance of getting selected.
There are many challenges in Three, survey questions should be
conducting election surveys "opinion poll1" immediately brings asked of the sampled respondents in a
The very mention
to the mind of the word
of people election standardised manner. (Standardisation
that measure voter preferences
surveys, exit polls2 and seat predictions ensures that questions are asked in the
correctly and when the results
that appear inofthe mass media every time same manner to all the sampled respond
these surveys are used to make
an election takes place in the country. ents as that will enable the respondents

seat predictions the margin Psephology,

of the study of elections, to respond accurately.) Four, there
began as an academic exercise at the should not be any predetermined arbi
error can be large. As the record
Centre for the Study of Developing trariness in interviewing the sampled
of pre-poll opinion surveysSocieties
in (csds), Delhi in the 1960s for respondents.
the 2004 and 2009 Lok Sabha
the purpose of studying the voting An accurate survey should follow
behaviour and attitudes of the voters. some basic norms:
elections shows, the opinion
Psephology is now equated with pre
• Every member of the targeted popu
polls have many weaknesses
poll surveys and exit polls which arelation should have an equal chance of
while attempting to make done by almost all media houses tobeing selected for the survey. Probability
forecasts in a complex situation. sampling ensures everyone a fair and
predict the winners of elections. It has
In such a setting, the polls now
canbeen reduced to a media gimmickequal chance of getting selected which
with allegations that it is used as aresults in avoiding coverage error.
be used as covert instruments
communication tool by a conglomerate • The size of the sample to be selected
by political parties to make seat should be adequate enough to achieve
of political parties, media and business
predictions and thereby influence houses with vested interests to influ the required level of precision. The
the electorate. ence voters. Media houses and televi attempt should be to minimise sam
sion anchors in India have become pling error.
modern-day "Nostradamuses"• using
The questions to be asked should
be simple
opinion poll findings to forecast elec and clearly worded so that
tion results before the actual votes are the respondents can understand and
cast, forecasts which have gone wronganswer them easily. The question to be
on many occasions. asked should be worded in such a man
The accuracy of sample surveys de ner that it stimulates the respondents to
pends on the following factors. One, theanswer it correctly. This reduces the
sample should be large enough to yieldmeasurement error though it cannot be
the desired level of precision. The size oftotally avoided.
the required sample for any survey can• The sampled respondents who are
be
This is a slightly modified version of the article, statistically determined. Those whocontacted and interviewed during the
"Status of Opinion Bills", which was published do not have the experience can usesurvey should have similar traits
in the Web Exclusives section of EPW last week.
statistical tables that provide various as those who could not be interviewed.
Praveen Rai (praveenrai@csds.in) is a politicalsample sizes based on the populationEveryone in the sample who responds
analyst at the Centre for the Study of size of the universe. However in some to the survey should have correspond
Developing Societies, Delhi.
ing characteristics with those who
cases, the sample size depends upon
Economie & Political weekly EBBS3 may 3, 2014 vol xlix no 18 13

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COMMENTARY

did not respond. This helps in avoiding successes as well as failures. Seat pre- led by Congress cam
non-response error. dictions based on election surveys done Thus poll predictions based on election
by various media houses during the surveys during the 2004 elections (as
A History general elections held in 1998 and 1999 seen in Table 3) went completely haywire
The popular media surveys started in the were fairly accurate, and that gave a big in most cases.
1980s when Prannoy Roy (beginning in boost to opinion polling. Tables 1 and 2 With such a failure of pre-polls and
1979-80), conducted opinion polls during show seat predictions by the various exit polls, questions were raised about
elections to find out the mood of Indian surveys and the level of accuracy vis-à-vis the failure to predict nda's defeat during
voters. The proliferation of electronic the actual results. the 2004 Lok Sabha elections. Were the
media in the 1990s made the electionTable
Table1:GeneralElections1998-AlmostAccurate
1: General Elections 1998 - Almost P°"s biased, incorrectly done or w
Accurate

surveys and exit polls popular Forecast

in India, Forecast there any political interference in show
Seat Forecast BJP Allies Congress NF+LF Others
and they started capturing the imagina- SeatForecast bjpAllies
Allies congress nf+lf others ing the results of such polls? W
tion of people. Pre-election surveysDRS
and 5rs249 249 155 702 .37102sample
155 37 size of the survey too small for
exit polls have since become a regular out/ooft/ACNielsen
Outlook/PiC Nielsen 238 149 238
123 14933 123 33 forecasting or was the methodology

feature in the last one and half decades. India

India Today/C SDSToday/csds
214 164
214
127
16438127 38^ wrong?
Frontline/CMS 225-235 145-155 120-130 32-52
At the very beginning, most of the poll Frontline/CMS 225-235 145-155120-130 32-52 Five years down the line, the poll pre
Actual result 252
results were published only in news Actual result 252166166 96 96
2A23 dictions made by different media houses
vi t j- t, j y—* , * 7 j The seat predictions were made on opinion polls in j. i • ,i i
magazines like India Today, Outlook and conducted before the ele
Frontline. Slowly and gradually, the lead- _ ., „ ... . elections once again failed to predict
3 , 3 , , Table 2: General Elections
Table 2: General Elections 1999-NDA Slightly , „ 6 , , , \ , „
1999 - NDA Slightly
ing newspaper groups also startedOverestimated
show- Overestimated the victory of Congress-led upa (Table 4).
ing interest in publishing results of elec- SeatForecast
Seat Forecast
bjpCongress
BJP Allies
Ames Allies congress
Others
Allies others Except for the poll conducted b
Timespoll/DRS 332 138
tion surveys. The demand from the print Timespoii/DRS 332 138 - Congress themselves that predicted it
-

Outlook/CMS
319-329 135-145 34-39
media further increased the number of Outlook/CMs 319-329—135-143 34-39 wjj[ cross tjje 200 everybody fa
„„il- 1 . J . .. IndiaToday/Insight
India Today/Insight332-336 332-336
132-146 132-146 70-80 „ ,. . ■ c c ,
70-80
opinion polls being conducted in the -— to predict the upsurge in favour of the
,,7, ,, , ,. . HT-AC Nielsen
HT-AC Nielsen
300 146 300
95 146 95 „ . ,
country. What
Pioneer-added
RDI 313-318 to
140-150 this
84-86 growing Pioneer
demand wasActual
the result advent
296 134 113 of various "Act
television channels. With a large number The seat pr
of news channels competing against conducted
Table 4: General Elections 2009 - Predictions b
each other, the race for conducting During
Failed to See the Congress Upsurge the L
Seat Forecast BJP Allies
election surveys and airing them as in Congress 2004, Allies Others
all t
STAR News-A C Nielsen 197 199 136
quickly as possible after election dates houses pred
CNN-IBN
CNN-IBN 165-185 185-205 165-195
are announced has become the NDTV norm cratic 177 216
Allian
150
of the day. Janata Party (bjp) would be able to retain 180 191 172
Headlines Today
Headlines Today
While the election polls are of different power at the centre. The only difference
NewsX 199 191 152

kinds, it is the pre-poll and the exit poll between different polls
Times was
Now that while
183 198 162

which catches the attention of most some suggested that theActualnda would come
result 159 262 79

people. The reason is simple - people are back with an increased tally, others pre- The seat predictions were made on o
. _ 1 1 . 1 . 11. . j.j 1 c ^ c ^ 1 conducted during the various phases of the elections.
eager to know which party or alliance is dieted a loss of some seats for th
likely to win the elections, and how many alliance. Among the polling age
seats they will win. Exit polls became pundits there was complete unanim
very popular in 1996, when Doordar- in their predictions that nda
shan, the government-owned television win the elections. But the result
channel, commissioned an all-India exit shocker - the nda lost the election
poll. The fieldwork and data collection the United Progressive Alliance (u
for this poll was done by the team at
CSDS, and its findingsTable
were3: General reported
Elections 2004 - UPA Completely
Table3:General Elections2004-UPAC
j ,. j • r- , Underestimated
Underestimated , , , , , ,
and discussed
SeatForecast
Seat Forecast in
BJP Allies aCongressfive-hour
Others progra
aired live on Doordarshan. Since then, Ate voter
Allies
concerns and preference, are the
NDTV-lndian ExpressExpress
230-250 190-205 100-120
there has been no election in India NDiv-indian 230-250 190-205100-120 best means of deriving an accurate
Aaj Tak-ORG Marg 248 190 105
where exit poll results have not been Aaj Tak-ORG Marg 248 190 105 of the voting intentions and polit
Zee-Taleem 249 176 117
televised the day polling gets over. Zee-Taleem 249 176_ 117_ attitudes of the Indian electorate (B
Star-C-Voter 263-275 174-186 86-98
Lahiri and Roy 1995), opinion polls that
A Mixed Record Sahara-DRS 263-278 171-181 92-102
are used to predict poll outcomes are, in
Outlook-MDRA
Otrf/oo/r-MDRA 280-29 159-169 89-99
The history of opinion polls and seat Wf/00*-IVIUKA —49—159-169 B9'99 Indian conditions, fallible. Ho
Actual
Actualresult result 189
189 222
222 132
predictions during the last four general ^,ctualtresu!t . ———222, . ^2 exit polls and post-poll surveys3
" ° The seat predictions were made on opinion polls/exit polls r r r j
elections has been a mixed bag of conducted during the various phases of

14 may 3, 2014 vol XLix no 18 EGXS3 Economic & Political weekly

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 COMMENTARY

timing; they gauge the voting intention with 70% of its population living in sometimes result in the failu
of voters after they have already voted. rural areas. That means any election and any data analysis
Psephologist Yogendra Yadav says that survey in order to be representative comes fallible and question
in addition to timing, other crucial factors, should try to conduct about 70% of its
including the sample size, sample design interviews in the villages and rural Factors behind Inacc
and the representativeness of the sam- areas and only about 30% interviews in Predictions
pie, ensure accuracy (Nath et al 1999). the towns and cities. The reasons for election pred
The choice of the survey method, sam- But this is not followed by most of wrong can be analysed at fo
pling method and the level of training of the market research agencies that are First, there is th
enumerators who collect data determine engaged in election polling in India. The diversity and volatility o
the accuracy of the survey conducted. reasons for this anomaly can be attributed Do voters form their vo
Election surveys, whether pre-poll or to inconvenience and high costs of con- after the elections are d
post-poll, are based on a random sample ducting surveys in rural areas. Most of there a significant number
drawn from the voter list of the Election the polls suffer from an urban bias, which are floating voters and m
Commission of India and are generally ultimately results in their sample being sions at the last moment? D
accurate as they yield a representative unrepresentative. A sample with more voters reveal their voting
sample ruling out coverage errors and interviews in towns and cities is most the surveyors or do they c
minimising sampling errors. On the other likely to have more educated, rich and arising out of extraneous
hand, exit polls, done on the day of elec- middle-class respondents. Thus the whole Second, can the surv
tions, are based on quota sampling and sample becomes biased and skewed, complexities of elections arisi
are fraught with the risk of some sections/ making it completely unrepresentative multipolarity of contests, p
subsamples of the population being left and rendering the survey inaccurate. and transfer of votes to e
out completely. Thus, the sample frame The third important component of an geographical concentratio
of exit polls is in most cases unrepre- election survey, crucial for conducting it some parties in some re
sentative and suffers from both coverage accurately, is the training of enumera- Similarly, Indian election
and sampling errors. tors who carry out field investigations, tionalism in parties, rebel candidates
The adequate number of respondents Unlike in the United States and other and local-level settings that are difficult
that should be interviewed in an elec- European countries where an election to ascertain in a survey,
tion survey is statistically determined, survey is conducted telephonically, in Third, is the sample selection repre
and the size of the sample does not to a India an election survey is conducted by sentative of the demographic of the vot
great extent determine its quality and enumerators who contact the respond- ers and does the size of the sample de
credibility. The election surveys (as against ents and conduct interviews in person, termine the accuracy of the survey?
pre-poll opinion surveys) in India do not So for every opinion poll or election sur- Fourth, how accurate are the various
go wrong as most of the polls have big vey, training of enumerators a few days statistical models for seat predictions
samples. However, even if the sample before field investigations is imperative developed by pollsters?
size is large it has been observed that the so as to ensure standardisation.
choice of sampling methods has been However except for a few academic Sociocultural Diversity and Volatility:
unscientific and unable to statistically institutions, most of the market research Election studies conducted in the past
cover the universe of the study. As a organisations do not spend time on and have indicated that Indian voters are
result, the surveys are not représenta- invest financial resources in fieldwork highly heterogeneous, with different socio
tive and the seat predictions have gone training and practices. Instead they pick cultural practices and demographic
wrong on several occasions. one-time trained enumerators from backgrounds, and their voting patterns
Random sampling methods which are their pool and ask them to do the field- and preferences are varied. But at times,
popularly used for pre-poll and post-poll work for subsequent rounds of election the multiple identities of Indian voters -
election surveys have a greater chance surveys. But there are certain aspects of region, caste community, language and
of getting a representative sample as training - rapport building with sampled religion - overlap, making it difficult to
compared to a sample drawn purposively. respondents, reading out questions from ascertain their political affiliation and
Purposive or quota sampling of voters is interview schedules and using survey electoral choices,
popularly used by market research agen- instruments, following accepted fieldwork For example, Muslims in a state like
cies for exit polls where a quota is fixed procedures and practices, standardised Uttar Pradesh (up) do not vote for the
for sampling the respondents based on methods of asking questions and record- bjp as reported by election surveys con
gender, education, caste, communities, ing responses, and do's and dont's of ducted in the state in the last decade,
different age groups, occupational back- surveys - that need to be done afresh for However, there are variations in voting
ground and class. each round of an election survey. The patterns of the Muslims residing in dif
What accounts for such unrepresenta- absence of rigorous training leads to ferent regions of the state. Muslims in up
tive sample selections? India is a country inaccuracies in data collection that do not form a homogeneous group and
Economic & Political weekly GSd may 3, 2014 vol xlix no 18 15

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COMMENTARY :

there are differences among them based two main political parties, provided the data one requires for a
on region, language and religious sect, surveys get their vote shares correctly, as the sample size
which are reflected in their voting However, in states where there are tive, seat predictions b
preferences. Thus, a large sample survey multipolar contests, making predictions small sample size can c
would capture that certain sections of become difficult as a slight error in esti- curate results. On the con
Muslims in the state have voted for the mating the vote share for any one party based on a large but u
bjp. Similarly, the voting patterns of can completely upset the accuracy of size will yield a wrong
voters in India vary from state to state, the seat prediction. Yogendra Yadav has argued that there is
For example, certain issues in elections Parties that contest elections in alii- no guarantee that a bigger sample size
may have regional and sectional appeal ance also pose a problem in seat predic- will get you the right result. Bigger
and can form the basis of voting deci- tion, as it is very difficult to compute surveys only multiply errors 10 times
sions. For others, the issues might not how the votes are shared between one (Nagaraj 2008)
have any appeal and may not affect another in an alliance. The geographi- The method of sampling used in an
their voting decisions. cal concentration of votes for some election survey and its accuracy also
Pre-poll surveys might make seat pro- parties in some regions of the states also plays an important role in makin
jections that are off the mark. Election makes it difficult to make a correct seat reasonably accurate election forec
studies, done before or during the elec- prediction in spite of getting the vote Thus a smaller representative sample c
tion campaign, have revealed that estimates correctly. The result of the help make an accurate predicatio
around one-fourth of the voters do not Karnataka Assembly election held in compared to a bigger unrepresentative
decide beforehand about who they are 2008 revealed that bjp had a 1% vote sample. The method of sampling used in
going to vote for and they have been share less than Congress but it went on surveys done by market research org
termed as floating voters by pollsters, to capture the majority of seats. The sations is usually not the most scientif
The floating voters make up their mind Congress got more votes than the bjp in method of survey research,
during election campaigns, and if there the state, but its vote was evenly distri- This becomes clear when measurin
is a bandwagon effect in favour of any buted throughout the state which led to voting preferences and intentions
particular political party, the initial pre- huge losses in winning seats. castes and communities. For example
dictions can seriously go wrong. up, a majority of the dalits, especially the
Though pollsters while making election Method of Sampling and Size of Jatavas, hav
forecasts based on pre-poll surveys put in Sample: The most significant feature in while the m
a rider that the predictions can change in the preparation of an opinion poll sur- voters have b
subsequent weeks, its readers remember vey is the sample size and method of Congress. Sim
only the predictions and accordingly sampling. The sample size for any na- to the Yad
judge them after the actual outcome, tional-and state-level election study de- porters of th
During the up assembly election of 2007, pends upon the level of analysis one in- sample in u
a post-poll survey revealed that a large tends to do. Thus if one wants to analyse these cast
number of voters from the upper castes the voting behaviour and attitudes of mating the p
who actually voted for the Bahujan voters only at the state level, a survey of these commu
Samaj Party (bsp), a dalit party, did not of 1,500 respondents would be good So if a sa
reveal their voting behaviour due to fear enough. But if one also wants to do a the opinion
of caste-based violence. As a result most region-wise analysis in the state, then community,
of the election surveys conducted during the sample size should be bigger as there be highly v
that election failed to predict a clear-cut should be sufficient number of cases for Yadav (2008
win for the bsp led by Mayawati. disaggregate analysis. through which the sample is selected
Similarly, exit polls, in which the vot- Thus sample sizes for any election sur- is crucial for the survey. Most Indian
ers are interviewed outside the polling vey depend upon the level of disaggregate polls go wrong because their sampling
booth after they have voted, do not al
ways reveal voters' actual decisions.
Web Exclusives
This happens because there can be a
fear that a correct revelation of the party The Web Exclusives section on the journal's website (http://www.epw.in)
they voted for could be used by other po features articles written for the web edition. These articles are usually on
litical parties in subsequently identify current affairs and will be short pieces offering a first comment.
ing and targeting them. The articles will normally not appear in the print edition.
All visitors to the website can read these short articles. Readers of the print edition
Multipolar Contests, Alliances, etc: It are invited to visit the Web Exclusives section which will see new articles
is easier to forecast the election out published every week.
come in a state where there are only
16 may 3, 2014 vol XLix no 18 QBS9 Economic & Political weekly

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 : COMMENTARY

methodology is poor which makesfigures

the A in
are on occasion manipulated pre-poll survey as the name indicates is
an election survey that is conducted before
favour of their clients.
sample profile unrepresentative. Though the elections are held for measuring popular
Thus election surveys have been choices
a scientific and representative sample re about political parties, contesting can
didates and political leaders. It also helps in
duced to a media gimmick used only
determines the accuracy of the survey, to
measuring voting behaviour amongst different
there is no guarantee that a forecast section of voters (Kumar and Rai 2013).
predict the outcome of election results
based on the survey will be right. Athat
sur quite often end up wrong REFERENCES
or off
vey has its limitations as it cannotthe mark.
cap Butler, David, Ashok Lahiri and Prannov Roy
ture the diverse and nuanced complexi India Decides: Elections 1952-1995 (De
NOTES Books & Things).
ties and undercurrents of electoral be
A post-poll survey is for measuring Kumar,
voting Sanjay and Praveen Rai (2013): Mea
haviour and choices in India.
behaviour that has been developed in Voting
India. Behaviour in India (Delhi: Sage P
tions).
It is a unique method of conducting election
Conclusions surveys which was pioneered by the Nagaraj,
Centre Anuradha (2008): "Psephology Is Not a
Science
for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) inLike Microbiology... It's Poll Studies.
the 1960s But Everyone Thinks Only of Seat Forecasts",
wherein the voters were interviewed
Contrary to their foreign couterparts,
The Indian Express, 27 January, available at
at home after the polling had been completed.
media opinion polls on elections in India http://archive.indianexpress.com/news/-pse
The post-poll survey for measuring voting
have focused more on predicting the behaviour is purely an academic exercise phology-is-not-a-science-like-...,
done accessed on
with the purpose of doing a post mortem11analyApril 2014.
number of seats that major politicalsis of the elections (Kumar and Rai 2013).
Nath, Tripti and R Suryamurthy (1999): "Poll Pundits
theexit poll as its name overtly suggestsorisPunters?",
parties are going to win or lose in An an The Tribune, 28 August, available
at http://www.tribuneindia.com/1999/99aug28/
election survey which is conducted among voters
elections rather than on understanding saturday/headi.htm, accessed on 11 April 2014.
as they come out or exit from the polling station
the key issues facing the electorate.
after casting their vote. This surveyYadav,
is Yogendra
also (2008): "Whither Survey Research?
Reflections
known as Election Day polling as the survey is on the State of Survey Research on
A recent sting operation on polling agen Politics in Most of the World", Malcolm Adise
conducted and completed on the day of polling
cies also revealed that seat prediction
(Kumar and Rai 2013). shiah Memorial Lecture, Chennai.

India's 'Dutch Disease' and would reduce the level of its quantitative
easing fin other words, the open market

the Exchange Rate

A V RAJWADE
Finance capital inflows and
inward remittances have held
up India's real exchange rate.
Do these inflows constitute a
kind of "Dutch Disease" which is
rendering Indian manufactures
uncompetitive?
A V Rajwade (avrajwade@gmail.com) is a
Mumbai-based analyst of the financial markets was the announcement by the us Federal
and the external sector.
operations to increase money supply
would be cut back). The fear then was
that rising interest rates in the us would
reduce the attraction of the Indian equity
and debt markets to foreign investors,
leading to an outflow of funds. In fact,
this did then happen in relation to
general election, the Financial Ex foreign institutional investor (fii) in the
In the context of the forthcoming
press recently published the views of debt market.
The Reserve Bank of India (rbi) took
several economists on five major policy
effective measures to restore some
issues which the new government would
need to address. Somewhat to my surprise, stability in the exchange market. For one
not one of them listed the issue of the thing, it undertook sell-buy (usd-inr)
exchange rate policy amongst their swaps with the major public sector oil
priorities. Media reports also suggest importing companies, in effect postpon
that a large amount of finance capital ing the demand. It simultaneously
has come in, and is likely to continue to undertook buy-sell (i e, reverse) swaps
come into the country in anticipation of with banks in respect of fcnr(b) depos
a certain outcome of the elections. The its in order to augment reserves. The
result has been a new high for the stock sell-buy swap facility ended in Novem
market. Simultaneously, the rupee is ber, and the second leg was to mature in
currently at its highest levels for the last February/March/April 2014. It follows
six-seven months, even in nominal terms. that after the facility closed, the demand
from the oil importers has been higher
The Last Six Months than normal since they were buying
It may be recalled that in September dollars to meet current requirements as
2013, the exchange rate was extremelywell as to honour/hedge the maturing
volatile and had gone above the Rs 68 swaps. Thanks to portfolio capital in
flows, the rupee has faced upward pres
per dollar level. The ostensible reason
sure despite the extra demand from
Reserve that in the following months,oil
it importers.

Economie & Political weekly EB259 may 3, 2014 vol xlix no 18 17

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