Binomial

Distribution

 n  x n− x
P ( X = x) =   p q
 x
Dr. Hina Dutt
hina.dutt@seecs.edu.pk
SEECS-NUST
 Probability
Distribution

Discrete Continuous
Probability Probability
Distributions Distributions

Binomial Uniform

Hypergeometric Normal

Poisson Exponential

Geometric
Binomial Experiment
A binomial experiment is a probability experiment that satisfies the
following conditions:
➢The outcomes of each trial may be classified into two categories:
success (S) and failure (F). The outcome of interest is called success
and the other, a failure.
➢The experiment is repeated for a fixed number of times, say n.
➢The successive trials are all independent.
➢The probability of a success, denoted by p, is the same for each
trial.
Notation for Binomial Experiments
Symbol Description

n The number of times a trial is repeated

p=P(S) The probability of success in a single trial.

q=P(F) The probability of failure in a single trial.

x The random variable represents a count

of the number of successes in n trials:
x = 0, 1, 2, 3, . . . n.
Binomial Experiment or Not?
Decide whether the experiment is a binomial experiment. If it is, specify the values
of n, p, and q, and list the possible values of the random variable x. If it is not a
binomial experiment, explain why.

You roll a die 10 times and note the number the die lands on.
Binomial Experiment or Not?
Decide whether the experiment is a binomial experiment. If it is, specify the values
of n, p, and q, and list the possible values of the random variable x. If it is not a
binomial experiment, explain why.

You randomly select a card from a deck of cards, and note if the card is an Ace.
You then put the card back and repeat this process 8 times.
Binomial Experiment or Not?
Decide whether the experiment is a binomial experiment. If it is, specify the values
of n, p, and q, and list the possible values of the random variable x. If it is not a
binomial experiment, explain why.

You guess on a multiple choice exam with 25 questions and 4 answers per question
and note the right answers.
Binomial Experiment or Not?
Decide whether the experiment is a binomial experiment. If it is, specify the values
of n, p, and q, and list the possible values of the random variable x. If it is not a
binomial experiment, explain why.

Barrel contains 3 red apples and 4 green apples. You select 4 apples without
replacement and note the number of red apples.
Binomial Distribution
A biased coin is tossed 5 times. The probability of getting a head is
twice the probability of getting a tail. What’s the probability of getting
exactly 3 heads?
Binomial Distribution
One way to get exactly 3 heads: HHHTT

What’s the probability of this exact arrangement?

P(heads).P(heads) .P(heads).P(tails).P(tails) =(2/3)3(1/3)2

Another way to get exactly 3 heads: THHHT

Probability of this exact outcome = (1/3)1(2/3)3(1/3)1 = (2/3)3(1/3)2
Binomial Distribution
In fact, (2/3)3(1/3)2 is the probability of each unique outcome that has
exactly 3 heads and 2 tails.

So, the overall probability of 3 heads and 2 tails is:

(2/3)3(1/3)2 + (2/3)3(1/3)2 + (2/3)3(1/3)2 + ….. for as many unique
arrangements as there are—but how many are there??
Binomial Distribution
Outcome Probability
THHHT (2/3)3(1/3)2
HHHTT (2/3)3(1/3)2
TTHHH (2/3)3(1/3)2
HTTHH (2/3)3(1/3)2 The probability
5 (2/3)3(1/3)2
ways to HHTTH of each unique
  (2/3)3(1/3)2
arrange 3 HTHHT outcome (note:
heads in THTHH (2/3)3(1/3)2
 3 5 trials HTHTH (2/3)3(1/3)2
they are all
equal)
HHTHT (2/3)3(1/3)2
THHTH (2/3)3(1/3)2)2
10 arrangements (2/3)3(1/3)2

5C3 = 5!/3!2! = 10
Binomial Distribution
5 5 2 3 1 2
P(3 heads and 2 tails)= 3
𝑃 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑 3𝑃 𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑙 2 = 3 3 3
Binomial Probability Formula
In a binomial experiment, the probability of exactly x successes in n trials is:

 n  x n− x n! n− x
P( X = x) = 
 x p q = p x
q
  ( n − x )! x!
where x = 0,1,2,...........n
Parameters of Binomial Distribution
Binomial Distribution has two parameters n and p.
It is generally denoted by 𝑏 𝑥; 𝑛, 𝑝 .
Mean and Variance of Binomial Distribution

Mean=𝜇 = 𝑛𝑝
Variance=𝜎 2 = 𝑛𝑝𝑞
Standard Deviation= 𝑛𝑝𝑞
 Bernoulli Trial
If there is only one trial with probability of success p and probability of failure 1-p,
this is called a Bernoulli distribution (special case of the binomial with n=1).

1 1
Probability of success: P( X = 1) =   p (1 − p)1−1 = p
1

1 0
P ( X = 0) =   p (1 − p )1−0 = 1 − p
Probability of failure: 0
Graph of a Binomial Distribution
You have learned how to graph discrete probability distributions. Because a binomial
distribution is a discrete probability distribution, you can use the same process.

The graph of a binomial distribution with p < 0.5 is skewed right, Figure (a).
The graph of a binomial distribution with p = 0.5 is symmetric, Figure (b).
The graph of a binomial distribution with p > 0.5 is skewed left, Figure (c).
Question 1
A die is rolled five times and 5 or 6 is considered as success. Find the
probability of
i. no success
ii. at least two successes
iii. at least one but not more than 3
Solution Hints
Here n=5 and p=1/3
5 1 𝑥 2 5−𝑥
P(X=x)= . for x=0,1 2, 3, 4, and,5
𝑥 3 3
• No Success
5 1 0 2 4−0
P(x=0)= .
0 3 3
• At least two Successes
P(x≥2)=1-P(x=0)-P(x=1)
• At least one but not more than 3
P(1≤x ≤ 3)=P(x=1)+P(x=2)+P(x=3)
Question 2
If on the average rain falls on twelve days in every thirty, find the
probability that
i. rain will fall on just three days of a given week.
ii. the first four days of a given week will be fine and the remaining
wet.
Solution Hints
Here n=7 and p=12/30=2/5
7 2 𝑥 3 7−𝑥
P(X=x)= . for x=0,1 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and,7
𝑥 5 5
• Rain will fall on just three days of a given week.
7 2 3 3 7−3
P(X=3)=
3 5 5
• The first three days of a given week will be fine and the remaining wet.
3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 4 2 3
P(FFFFWWW)= =
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Question 3
Suppose that the death rate of malaria is 20%, find the probability
that the number of death in a particular village is more than half out
of 8?
Question 4
A communication system transmit binary information over a channel
that introduced random bit errors with probability ε=10-1. The
transmitter transmits each information bit three times, and decoder
takes a majority vote of the received bits to decide on what the
transmitted bit was. Find the probability that the receiver will make an
incorrect decision.
Question 5
A random variable x is binomially distributed with mean 3 and
variance 2. Find the probability distribution of X, and also draw the
graph of Distribution function.