Build Understanding

Investigate Theoretical Probability

A probability experiment is an activity that involves chance, such as rolling a number
cube. Each repetition of the experiment is a trial, and each possible result of the
experiment is an outcome. The set of all possible outcomes of the experiment is the
sample space, and a subset of outcomes from the sample space is an event.

For example, the sample space S for rolling a number cube is the set of outcomes
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. The event A of rolling an odd number is the set of outcomes
A = {1, 3, 5}. You can use the notation n​​(S)​​ or n​​(A)​​ to represent the number of
outcomes in the sample space or an event. In this case, n​​(S)​​ = 6 and n​​(A)​​ = 3.

Theoretical Probability
When all outcomes of a probability experiment are equally likely, the theoretical
probability of an event A is given by:
number of outcomes in the event A n​(A)​
P​(​ A)​​ = _____
​​     
      ​​ = _
​​   ​​
number of outcomes in the sample space S n​(S)​

1 Suppose you spin the green spinner shown below.

12 1
11 2

3 The spinner has 12 numbered

10
sectors that are all the same
9 4 size.
8 5
7 6

A. What is the sample space S for this probability experiment?

B. Are all of the outcomes in the sample space equally likely? Why or why not?

C. What is the set of outcomes A for the event of spinning a prime number?

D. What is the theoretical probability of spinning a prime number? Explain.

E. What is an event for spinning the spinner whose theoretical probability is

​​ __1 ​​? whose theoretical probability is 0? whose theoretical probability is 1?
4

F. Carol and two friends spin the blue spinner shown to decide who gets
3
to pick the next movie they watch. Carol gets to pick if the spinner
lands on 1. Carol says the process is fair because the probability of
getting each number is __
​​ 13 ​​. Do you agree? If not, explain why not, and 1
2
tell how you would modify the process to make a fair decision.

Turn and Talk Are you more likely to spin a prime number or a composite
number using the green spinner in Task 1? Explain.

500 
Investigate Experimental Probability
The theoretical probability of getting a 3 when rolling a number cube is __
​​ 16 ​​, which means
that you can expect to get a 3 one time for every six times you roll the cube. However,
if you roll a number cube 600 times, you probably will not get a 3 exactly 100 times.
The ratio of the number of times you actually get a 3 to your number of rolls is your
experimental probability of getting a 3.

Experimental Probability
When a probability experiment is conducted for a certain number of trials, the
experimental probability of an event A is given by:

​​  number    

P​​(A)​​ = ____
     of trials where event  ​​
A occurs
total number of trials

2 Fabiola spins the green spinner shown 60 times and records the outcomes
in a table.

12 1
2 Outcomes for 60 Spins
11

10 3 8, 3, 8, 11, 12, 12, 6, 11, 8, 11, 1,

12, 9, 11, 6, 1, 12, 12, 3, 2, 1, 2, 5,
9 4 7, 5, 2, 4, 2, 12, 1, 8, 4, 12, 8, 6, 4,
8 5 6, 1, 10, 10, 7, 12, 11, 9, 3, 2, 6, 1,
7 6 5, 11, 12, 10, 9, 4, 11, 9, 7, 8, 10, 6

A. What is the theoretical probability of spinning an 11?

B. How many times would you expect to spin an 11 in 60 spins? Explain your
reasoning.

C. How many times did Fabiola actually spin an 11 in 60 spins? What is her
experimental probability of spinning an 11?

D. Compare the theoretical and experimental probabilities of spinning an

11. Does the experimental probability overestimate or underestimate the
theoretical likelihood of spinning an 11?

E. Suppose Fabiola had spun the spinner 600 times instead of 60 times. Would
you expect her experimental probability of spinning an 11 to be closer to or
farther from the theoretical probability? Explain.

F. What is an event whose theoretical probability is greater than the

experimental probability calculated from Fabiola’s results? Justify your
answer mathematically.

G. Recall that in Task 1 Carol thought the theoretical probability of

3
getting a 1 when spinning the blue spinner shown is __​​ 1 ​​. How could
3
you use experimental probability to convince Carol that she is
mistaken? 1
2
H. What is an example of a question that can be answered more easily
using experimental probability than theoretical probability? Explain.

Module 17 • Lesson 17.1 501