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Lecture 5, STS301E, DR Yaser Ayid, DR Emad Salem
Lecture 5, STS301E, DR Yaser Ayid, DR Emad Salem
Lecture 5, STS301E, DR Yaser Ayid, DR Emad Salem
Applied Statistics
STS 301
Lecture (4)
Spring, 2018
Outline
2
Multiplication Rule.
Independence
P A B C P A P B P C P A B
P A C PB C P A B C
P A B P A P A B P A B c
P B A P B P A B P Ac B
P B c c
A P A B 1 P A B
c
P B c c
A P A B 1 P A B
c
P ( AUB ) P( A) P( B) - P( A B)
P ( A) P( B) - P( A) P( B)
One bag contains 4 white balls and 3 black balls, and a second
bag contains 3 white balls and 5 black balls. One ball is drawn from
the first bag and placed unseen in the second bag. What is the
probability that a ball now drawn from the second bag is black?
Solution
6/9 B2/B1 drawing a black ball from bag 2
3/7 B1 P (B 2 ) P ( B 2 B 1 ) P (B 2 W 1 )
3/9 W2/B1 P ( B ) P( B | B ) P (W ) P ( B | W )
1 2 1 1 2 1
4/7 W1 5/9 B2/W1
3/ 7 6/ 9 4/ 7 5/ 9 0.6
4/9 W2/W1
1. A small town has one fire engine and one ambulance available for emergencies.
The probability that the fire engine is available when needed is 0.98, and the
probability that the ambulance is available when called is 0.92. In the event of an
injury resulting from a burning building, find the probability that both the
ambulance and the fire engine will be available, assuming they operate
independently.
2. A machine produces parts that are either good (90%), slightly defective (2%),
or obviously defective (8%). Produced parts get passed through an automatic
inspection machine, which is able to detect any part that is obviously defective
and discard it. What is the quality of the parts that make it through the inspection
machine and get shipped?
4. An urn contains 3 red balls, 2 blue balls, and 5 white balls. A ball is
selected and its color noted. Then it is replaced. A second ball is selected
and its color noted. Find the probability of each of these:
a. Selecting 2 blue balls
b. Selecting 1 blue ball and then 1 white ball
c. Selecting 1 red ball and then 1 blue ball
Examples in P. 153
Exercises P. 153: No. 11, 12, 17, 20