PART B (1800 words ± 10%)

Assessment for Forecasting Task:

Forecasting container flows in ports plays a crucial role in strategic planning and decision-

making for port operators, shipping companies, and logistics providers. In this coursework, you

are tasked with forecasting the container flows for one UK port of your choice using Microsoft

Excel. You will apply three or four different forecasting methods (one of which must include

multiple regression) and provide an interpretation of the results to give insights into the future

trends and potential implications for your chosen port.

For your report you need to:

• Obtain historical data on container flows in UK ports (available from the Department

for Transport) for at least the past ten years. The data should include the volume

(measured in TEU) of containers handled by major ports, which may include

Southampton, Felixstowe, and London, or any other UK port that handles containers.

Additionally, for the multiple regression forecast you will need to gather any relevant

macroeconomic indicators that may influence container flows, such as GDP growth, trade

volume, or any other industry-specific data.

• Select appropriate forecasting methods for predicting container flows in UK ports.

Consider time series forecasting techniques such as weighted moving average,

exponential smoothing, or Holt’s method. Alternatively, you may also consider Markov

Chain, Monte Carlo Simulation, linear trend line, or linear regression. Multiple regression

is mandatory. Justify your choice of the forecasting method based on the characteristics

of the data and the specific requirements of the problem.

• Apply the chosen forecasting methods to the historical data and generate forecasts for

your chosen port. Present the forecasted values along with appropriate measures of

accuracy or uncertainty, such MSE.

• Interpret the forecasted results and discuss the implications for your chosen port.

Analyse the trends and any other patterns identified in the forecasted container flows.

You may also wish to consider the potential impact of macroeconomic factors on the

future container flows and discuss their implications for port operators, shipping

companies, and logistics providers. • Evaluate the limitations and challenges associated

with forecasting container flows in UK ports. Discuss factors that may affect the accuracy

of the forecasts, such as changes in trade policies, technological advancements, or

unforeseen events (e.g., pandemics, or sudden discontinuity of demand for certain

products, etc…). Suggest strategies to mitigate these limitations and improve the

accuracy of future forecasts.

• Provide recommendations based on your analysis and forecasted results. Discuss

potential strategies that UK port operators, shipping companies, and logistics providers

could adopt to accommodate the projected container flows and optimize their operations.

Consider factors such as capacity planning, infrastructure development, and collaboration

among stakeholders.