2020 - Estimating Sources of Submarine Landslide Induced by 2018

Supplementary Material
Estimating sources of submarine landslide induced by 2018
Sulawesi earthquake and tsunami within Palu Bay
Kaori Nagai1, Abdul Muhari2, Kwanchai Pakoksung3, Masashi Watanabe4, Anawat Suppasri3, Taro
Arikawa4, *, Fumihiko Imamura3
1
Faculty of Science and Engineering, Chuo University, 1-13-27 Kasuga, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo
112-8551, Japan, a16.mkdb@g.chuo-u.ac.jp
2
National Disaster Management Authority (BNPB), Jakarta, Indonesia
3
International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan
4
Faculty of Science and Engineering, Chuo University, Tokyo, Japan
*Corresponding author, taro.arikawa.38d@g.chuo-u.ac.jp
1. Locations for time series of tsunami wave amplitude output in the simulation.
The time series of wave amplitude were acquired at the 4 points indicated by Sepúlveda et al.
(2020) as shown in the Figure S1. The tide gauge measurement in Pantoloan was conducted at the
black point in the Figure S1. We compared the calculated wave amplitude and the observed ones
obtained by the video footages and tide gauge measurement and at each point.
Figure S1. The black points shows the output points of simulation results.
2. Supplemental information of section 3.2.1 in paper

We determined the parameters of Model CE by comparing with the video footages or observed run-
up heights. Table S1 shows the details of possible coastal sources and each model.
Model C included the coastal landslide sources C1-C6 assumed by Pakoksung et al. (2019) and
Models CN1-CN6 included possible coastal sources CN in addition to C1-C6. According to Model
CS, the thickness of C3-C5 were assumed as shown in Table 1 in paper.
Figure S2a and Figure S2b shows the time series of wave amplitude for Model CN1-Model CN6
and Figure S2c shows the VRO-VRC diagram for Models CN1-CN6. To evaluate the impact of
possible landslide sources CN1-CN6 on the time series of wave amplitude at the Pantoloan, we
Source Lon. (°E) Lat. (°N) Length (m) Width (m) Thickness (m) Volume (m 3) Rotation (°)
C1 119.819 -0.683 1200 600 6 3.55 ×10 6
20
C2 119.865 -0.792 1800 800 8 1.38×10 6 40

C3 119.870 -0.878 800 400 5 3.46×10 6 -20
C4 119.860 -0.883 2000 600 4 1.58×10 6 90
C5 119.823 -0.846 1600 800 13 3.55×10 6

40
C6 119.808 -0.802 1800 600 9 2.00×10 6 30
CN1 1000 500 5 0.707×10 6
CN2 119.825 -0.692 1250 625 6.25 1.332×10 6 80
CN3 1500 1000 7.5 2.204×10 6
CN4 1000 500 5 0.956×10 6
CN5 119.826 -0.696 1250 625 6.25 1.602×10 6 80
CN6 1500 1000 7.5 2.365×10 6
E1 119.869 -0.855 500 250 5 0.158×10 6 90

E2 119.869 -0.855 750 375 7.5 0.474×10 6 90
E3 119.869 -0.855 1000 500 10 0.711×10 6
90
Landslide Source
Model name
Pakoksung et al. (2019) Thickness (C1-C6) Satellite imaginary Sepúlveda et al. (2020)
Model C ―
Tables S1
Model CN1-Model CN6 CN1-CN6 ―
C1-C6
Model CS
Table 1 (in paper) CN5
Model E1-Model E3 E1-E3
compared the simulation results of Models CN1-CN6 with the video footage using the correlation
coefficient R and two variance reductions (see Table S2). As a result of including the CN5, Model
CN5 could explain the maximum wave amplitude better than Model CE. However, the tsunami
arrival time approximately 3 minutes after the earthquake could not be explained by using CN, so we
should investigate the possible source which can explain the video footage more accurately in
northern part of the bay in future.
Figure S3a shows the comparison of the time series of wave amplitude for Model C, Model CN5
and Model CS. Model CN5 could reproduce the wave amplitude inferred by the video at the
Pantoloan
better than Model C which had not included source CN5. Based on the comparison of Models CN5
and CS, Model CS could explain better the maximum tsunami amplitude around the area at 30 km
than Model CN5, as shown in Figure S3b. The comparison of Model CS and the observed data
revealed that K is 1.92 and κ is 1.18, which have good value than Model CN5. Therefore, we applied
the parameters of Model CS to Model CE. Figure S4 shows the simulation results for Model CE
which
Table S1. The parameters of possible coastal landslide sources and details of each Model.
Pantoloan West Palu
6 Observation 3
Water level change [m]

Video
4 Model CN1 2
Model CN2
Model CN3
2 1
0 0
-2 -1
-4 -2
-6 -3
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 0 5 10 15 20
Minutes after earthquake [min] Minutes after earthquake [min]
Talise KN Hotel
3 3

2 2
1 1
0 0
-1 -1
-2 -2
-3 -3
0 5 10 15 20 0 5 10 15 20
Figure S2a. Comparison of simulation results for Models CN1-CN3 and the video footage.
Pantoloan West Palu

6 Observation 3
Video
4 Model CN4 2
Model CN5
Model CN6
2 1
0 0
-2 -1
-4 -2
-6 -3
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 0 5 10 15 20
Talise KN Hotel
3 3
2 2
1 1
0 0
-1 -1
-2 -2
-3 -3
0 5 10 15 20 0 5 10 15 20
Figure S2b. Comparison of the simulation results for Models CN4-CN6 and the video footages.
Figure S2c. VRO-VRC diagram for comparison of results and the video footage at Pantoloan.
included possible source E. The parameters of width and length and location for source E1 based on
Sepúlveda et al. (2020). We then assumed 3 sizes for source E as shown in Table S1 and investigated
the impacts on the southern coastal area. Figure S4a shows the time series of wave amplitude for
Models CE1-CE3. Model CE shows the first positive wave of 1m at Talise which was not inferred by
the video footage and the first negative component which is consistent with the video footage.
According to the tsunami video acquired in Talise, the fluctuation of sea level immediately after the
shaking was also confirmed along the shoreline (video. 13), so we should modify the possible source
E considering the uncertainty of the video footage, in future. Models CE2 and CE3 overestimated the
first wave of 1 m at West Palu. Therefore, we adopted the possible source E1 to Model CE. The
difference of the maximum tsunami heights along the shoreline for each Model CE was shown in
Figure S4b.
Figure S3a. Comparison of the time series of wave amplitude for each Model.
Figure S3b. Comparison of the maximum tsunami heights along the shoreline for each Model and
observed run-up heights.
Pantoloan West Palu
3 3

2 2
1 1
0 0
-1 -1
Video
Model CE3
-2 -2 Model CE2
Model CE1
-3 -3
0 5 10 15 20 0 5 10 15 20
Talise KN Hotel
3 3

2 2
1 1
0 0
-1 -1
-2 -2
-3 -3
0 5 10 15 20 0 5 10 15 20
Figure S4a. Comparison of the time series of wave amplitude for each Model CE.
Figure S4b. Comparison of the maximum tsunami heights along the shoreline for each Model CE
and observed run-up heights.
For comparison, Figure S5a shows the impact of coastal sources C3-4, C6 and E for different
critical slope. According to Model CE34, the reproducibility of the observations increased when a
critical slope for source C3-4 was gentle. Model CE6 for critical slope of 2 ° shows the
overestimation in the middle of the bay. Figure S5b, S5c and S5d shows the comparison of the time
series of wave amplitude of each source for different critical slope.
Table S2. Geometric mean K and geometric standard deviation κ for the comparison of the maximum
30-45 km 0-80 km
Model name
K κ K κ
Model CE2 1.059 1.326 0.857 1.924
Model CE3-4 1.066 1.253 1.022 1.789
Model CE5 1.000 1.200 0.802 1.746
Model CE6 1.057 1.307 0.729 1.953
Model CEE 1.171 1.410 1.188 1.930
Model CE 1.172 1.401 1.186 1.921
tsunami heights and observed run-up heights in the area of the bay.
Model CE34 Model CE6

14 14
12 12
Maximum tsunami heghts [m]
10 10
8 8
6 6
4 4
2 2
0 0
0 20 40 60 80 0 20 40 60 80
Distance along the coast [km] Distance along the coast [km]
Model CEE
14
12
10
Figure S5a. Comparison of the 8
0
0 20 40 60 80
Distance along the coast [km]
maximum tsunami heights along the shoreline for each condition of critical slope.
Pantoloan West Palu
4 4 14°
2°

6°
10°
Video
2 2
0 0
-2 -2
-4 -4
0 5 10 15 20 0 5 10 15 20
Talise KN Hotel
6 6

4 4
2 2
0 0
-2 -2
-4 -4
-6 -6
0 5 10 15 20 0 5 10 15 20
Figure S5b. Comparison of the time series of wave amplitude of Model CE3-4 for different critical
slope.
Pantoloan West Palu 14°
6 4 2°
6°
10°
4 Video
2
2
0 0
-2
-2
-4
-6 -4
0 5 10 15 20 0 5 10 15 20
Talise KN Hotel
4 4
2 2
0 0
-2 -2
-4 -4
0 5 10 15 20 0 5 10 15 20
Figure S5c. Comparison of the time series of wave amplitude of Model CE6 for different critical
slope.
Pantoloan West Palu
4 4
14°

2°
6°
10°
2 2 Video
0 0
-2 -2
-4 -4
0 5 10 15 20 0 5 10 15 20
Talise KN Hotel
4 4

2 2
0 0
-2 -2
-4 -4
0 5 10 15 20 0 5 10 15 20
Figure S5d. Comparison of the time series of wave amplitude of Model CEE for different critical
slope.
As mentioned in the paper, we assumed submarine sources S1-S6, as shown in Figure 8. The
parameters of width and length for S11, S211, S311, S411, S5 and S6 were specified as 250 and 500
m and for others were varied, as shown in Table S3. The results of Models CES1-CES4 are shown in
Figure S6 and the parameters K and κ for the comparison of simulation results of Models CES1-
CES4 and observed run-up heights are indicated in Table S4. The results of Models CES5 and CES6
for different critical slope are shown in Figure 7.
Table S3. The parameters of possible submarine landslide sources and details of each Model CES.
Lon. (°E) Lat. (°N) Length (m) Width (m) Thickness (m) Volume (m 3) Rotation (°)
6
S11 500 250 15 0.307×10
S12 119.848 -0.857 750 375 7.5 1.034×10 6 15

6
S13 1000 500 10 2.179×10
S21 500 250 5 0.122×10 6
S22 119.851 -0.857 750 375 7.5 0.285×10 6 15

6
S23 1000 500 10 0.537×10
S31 500 250 5 0.301×10 6
S32 119.848 -0.860 750 375 7.5 0.907×10 6 15

6
S33 1000 500 10 1.651×10
S41 500 250 5 0.109×10 6
S42 119.851 -0.860 750 375 7.5 0.313×10 6 15
S43 1000 500 10 0.663×10 6
S5 119.869 -0.863 500 250 5 0.160×10 6 90

6
S6 119.8495 -0.8475 500 250 5 0.140×10 30
Landslide Sources
Model name
Pakoksung et al. (2019) Satellite imaginary Sepulveda et al. (2020) Submarine landslide
Model CES11-S13 S11-S13

C1-C6 CN5 E1
Model CES5 S5
Model CES6 S6
Table S4. The results for comparison of simulation results and observed run-up heights.
0-80 km 30-45 km
Model name
K κ K κ
Model CES11 1.160 1.940 1.160 1.421
Model CES12 1.076 1.849 1.086 1.303
Model CES13 1.011 1.822 1.026 1.268
Model CES21 1.179 1.918 1.166 1.396
Model CES22 1.176 1.922 1.166 1.397
Model CES23 1.163 1.916 1.157 1.385
Model CES31 1.127 1.896 1.126 1.343
Model CES32 1.066 1.880 1.073 1.303
Model CES33 1.027 1.862 1.035 1.269
Model CES41 1.180 1.941 1.173 1.417
Model CES42 1.171 1.937 1.167 1.406
Model CES43 1.155 1.923 1.152 1.383
Model CES1 Model CES13
12
Model CES2
12 Model CES12
Figure S6a. Comparison of Model CES11

Model CE
Mikami et al. (2019) 10
10

Omira et al. (2019)
the maximum tsunami

Widiyanto et al. (2019)
8 8
heights of Models CES1-

6 6
CES4 for different size of

4 4
2
submarine landslide sources
2
0 0
0 20 40 60 80 0 20 40 60 80
S1-S4. Distance along the coast [km] Distance along the coast [km]
12
Model CES3 12
Model CES4
10 10

8 8
6 6
4 4
2 2
0 0
0 20 40 60 80 20 40 60 80
Distance along the coast [km] Distance along the coast [km]
Pantoloan West Palu

4 4
Video
Model CES13
Model CES12
2 2 Model CES11
Model CE
0 0
-2 -2
-4 -4
0 5 10 15 20 0 5 10 15 20
Talise KN Hotel
4 4
2 2
0 0
-2 -2
-4 -4
0 5 10 15 20 0 5 10 15 20
Figure S6b. Comparison of the time series of wave amplitude of Model CES1 for different size of
submarine source S1.
Pantoloan West Palu
4 4
Model CE

Model CES23
Model CES22
2 2 Model CES21
Video
0 0
-2 -2
-4 -4
0 5 10 15 20 0 5 10 15 20
Talise KN Hotel
4 4
Water levlel change [m]

2 2
0 0
-2 -2
-4 -4
0 5 10 15 20 0 5 10 15 20
Figure S6c. Comparison of the time series of wave amplitude of Model CES2 for different size of
Pantoloan West Palu
4 4
Model CE
Model CES33
Model CES32
2 2 Model CES31
Video
0 0
-2 -2
-4 -4
0 5 10 15 20 0 5 10 15 20
Talise KN Hotel
4 4
Waer level change [m]
2 2
0 0
-2 -2
-4 -4
0 5 10 15 20 0 5 10 15 20
Figure S6d. Comparison of the time series of wave amplitude of Model CES3 for different size of
Pantoloan West Palu
4 4
Model CE

Model CES43
Model CES42
2 2 Model CES41
Video
0 0
-2 -2
-4 -4
0 5 10 15 20 0 5 10 15 20
Talise KN Hotel
4 4

2 2
0 0
-2 -2
-4 -4
0 5 10 15 20 0 5 10 15 20
Figure S6e. Comparison of the time series of wave amplitude of Model CES4 for different size of
Model CE
Model CES5 (2°)
12 Model CES5 (14°)
Model CES6 (2°)
Model CES6 (14°)
10
Mikami et al. (2019)

Omira et al. (2019)
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Figure S7a. Comparison of the maximum tsunami heights for Models CES5 and CES6 for different
critical slope of 14 and 2°.
Pantoloan West Palu
4 4
Model CES5 (14°)

Model CES5 (2°)
Model CES6 (14°)
Model CES6 (2°)
2 2 Video
Model CE
0 0
-2 -2
-4 -4
0 5 10 15 20 0 5 10 15 20
Talise KN Hotel
4 4

2 2
0 0
-2 -2
-4 -4
0 5 10 15 20 0 5 10 15 20
Figure S7b. Comparison of the time series of wave amplitude of Models CES5 and CES6 for
different critical slope of 14 and 2°.
5. Supplemental information of section 4 in paper
To investigate the approach of the tsunami which reached 300 s after the earthquake, we showed the
simulation results of Models CE2, CE5 and CE6 under the condition of critical slope of 2 ° in Figure
S8. These results indicated the tendency of the approach from the north-west of large tsunami at 300
s, while the approach from the north-east of small tsunami at the same time.
Figure S9a shows the time series of wave amplitude of Model E for different start times of 0, 30,
60, 90 and 120 s for source E. The simulation result of Model E (E begins to slide at 120 s)
reproduced the first small wave 3 min after the earthquake and first large wave 5 minutes after the
earthquake, while the tsunami arrival time at Talise and KN Hotel was not explained by the case.
Figure S9b shows the maximum tsunami amplitude of Model E for different start time for source E
which indicated the underestimation in the southern coastal area.
Figure. S8 Simulation results of Models CE2, CE5 and Model CE6 under the condition of critical
slope of 2°.
Pantoloan West Palu
4 4 Model E (0s)
Model E (30s)

Model E (60s)
Model E (90s)
Model E (120s)
2 2 Video
0 0
-2 -2
-4 -4
0 5 10 15 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Talise KN Hotel
4 4

2 2
0 0
-2 -2
-4 -4
0 5 10 15 20 0 5 10 15 20
Figure S9a Comparison of the time series of wave amplitude of Model E for different time when
source E starts to slide.
12
Model E Model E (120s)
Model E (90s)
Model E (60s)
Model E (30s)
Model E (0s)
10
Mikami et al. (2019)

Omira et al. (2019)
0
0 20 40 60 80
Figure S9b Comparison of the maximum tsunami heights of Model E for different start time for
source E.

2020 - Estimating Sources of Submarine Landslide Induced by 2018

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Supplementary Material

Estimating sources of submarine landslide induced by 2018

Sulawesi earthquake and tsunami within Palu Bay

Arikawa4, *, Fumihiko Imamura3

112-8551, Japan, a16.mkdb@g.chuo-u.ac.jp

*Corresponding author, taro.arikawa.38d@g.chuo-u.ac.jp

2. Supplemental information of section 3.2.1 in paper

C2 119.865 -0.792 1800 800 8 1.38×10 6 40

C4 119.860 -0.883 2000 600 4 1.58×10 6 90

C5 119.823 -0.846 1600 800 13 3.55×10 6

C6 119.808 -0.802 1800 600 9 2.00×10 6 30

CN1 1000 500 5 0.707×10 6

CN2 119.825 -0.692 1250 625 6.25 1.332×10 6 80

CN3 1500 1000 7.5 2.204×10 6

CN4 1000 500 5 0.956×10 6

CN5 119.826 -0.696 1250 625 6.25 1.602×10 6 80

CN6 1500 1000 7.5 2.365×10 6

E1 119.869 -0.855 500 250 5 0.158×10 6 90

Water level change [m]

Water level change [m]

Pantoloan West Palu

Water level change [m]

Water level change [m]

Water level change [m]

Water level change [m]

Model CE34 Model CE6

Maximum tsunami heghts [m]

Figure S5a. Comparison of the 8

Water level change [m]

Water level change [m]

Water level change [m]

Water level change [m]

Water level change [m]

Water level change [m]

S12 119.848 -0.857 750 375 7.5 1.034×10 6 15

S21 500 250 5 0.122×10 6

S22 119.851 -0.857 750 375 7.5 0.285×10 6 15

S31 500 250 5 0.301×10 6

S32 119.848 -0.860 750 375 7.5 0.907×10 6 15

S41 500 250 5 0.109×10 6

S42 119.851 -0.860 750 375 7.5 0.313×10 6 15

S43 1000 500 10 0.663×10 6

S5 119.869 -0.863 500 250 5 0.160×10 6 90

Model CES11-S13 S11-S13

Model CES21-S23 S21-S23

Model CES31-S33 S31-S33

Figure S6a. Comparison of Model CES11

Maximum tsunami heghts [m]

the maximum tsunami

Maximum tsunami heghts [m]

heights of Models CES1-

CES4 for different size of

Maximum tsunami heghts [m]

Pantoloan West Palu

Water level change [m]

Water level change [m]

Water level change [m]

Water levlel change [m]

Water level change [m]

Water level change [m]

Water level change [m]

Mikami et al. (2019)

Water level change [m]