IET Renewable Power Generation

Special Issue: Performance Assessment and Condition Monitoring of

Photovoltaic Systems for Improved Energy Yield

Daily prediction of solar power generation ISSN 1752-1416

Received on 4th August 2016
Revised 19th December 2016
based on weather forecast information in Accepted on 9th January 2017
E-First on 21st March 2017
Korea doi: 10.1049/iet-rpg.2016.0698
www.ietdl.org

Jae-Gon Kim1 , Dong-Hyuk Kim1, Woo-Sik Yoo1, Joung-Yun Lee1, Yong Bae Kim2
1Department of Industrial and Management Engineering, Incheon National University, Incheon, Republic of Korea
2Innovative Technology Research Division, Gumi Electronics and Information Technology Research Institute, Gumi, Republic of Korea
E-mail: jaegkim@inu.ac.kr

Abstract: Solar panel photovoltaic (PV) systems are widely used in Korea to generate solar energy, which is one of the most
promising renewable energy sources. With regard to solar electricity providers and a grid operator, it is critical to accurately
predict solar power generation for supply–demand planning in an electrical grid, which directly affects their profit. This prediction
is, however, a challenging task because solar power generation is weather dependent and uncontrollable. In this study, a daily
prediction model based on the weather forecast information for solar power generation is proposed. In the case of the proposed
model, the cloud and temperature data available from the weather forecast information is used to predict the amount of solar
radiation as well as a loss adjustment factor to reflect the possible loss of power generation due to the degradation or failure of
the PV module. Using the proposed model, solar power generation for the following day can be predicted. The proposed model
is embedded into a solar PV monitoring system that is commercially used in Korea, and it is shown to perform better than the
existing prediction models.

1 Introduction Therefore, an accurate daily prediction model for power generation

Solar power is one of the most promising renewable energy
sources, the generation of which does not result in the emission of
pollutants and greenhouse gases. According to the European
Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA), the total global installed
capacity of solar power is increasing sharply, and in 2014, the total
solar power capacity was 177 GW. With the use of solar energy, 53
million tons of CO2 emissions have been found to reduce annually.
According to EPIA, in 2014, Korea was the 8th largest annual solar
power installation in the world. In addition, Korea has
implemented a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) to facilitate
renewable energy markets since 2012; this initiative is in line with
the Korean government's vision of green growth. The RPS is a
mechanism that imposes an obligation on electricity supply
companies to generate a specified fraction of their electricity from
renewable energy sources. Certified renewable energy generators
earn certificates for each unit of electricity that they produce,
which they can sell along with their electricity to supply
companies. Subsequently, the supply companies handover the
certificates to some form of a regulatory body to prove their
compliance with their regulatory obligations.
Implementation of the RPS has triggered the appearance of
numerous medium- and large-scale solar power plants connected to
an electricity grid. Given that solar power generation is intermittent
and uncontrollable, the accurate prediction of solar power
generation is critical for both a grid operator and solar electricity
supply companies. The grid operator is responsible for supply–
demand planning to balance supply and demand; therefore, the
accurate prediction of solar power generation is critical to avoid
fluctuations in variation or interruption of supply by establishing a
prior electricity generation plan using the prediction data. To
maximise their profits, the supply companies require an accurate
prediction system to decide whether to currently use or sell the
excess energy or to store it for later use using an energy storage
system. In Korea, it is mandatory for the grid operator to forecast
the next-day electricity demand and generation in order to
determine the system marginal price of electricity of the next day
before the electricity market opens in the next day. On a daily
basis, the grid operator asks electricity supply companies to
suggest available amounts of power that can be supplied next day.
is essential to operating electricity supply companies in Korea.
In the literature, several recent studies on the short-term
prediction of solar power generation have been reported. An
adaptive linear time-series model was suggested to predict the
hourly values of solar power for horizons of up to 36 h using 15-
min observations of solar power from photovoltaic (PV) systems
and the global irradiance forecast information provided every 3 h
by the Danish Meteorological Institute as input data [1]. Four
artificial neural networks (ANNs) were developed for 24-h-ahead
forecasting of solar power generation of a 20-kW PV system using
vapor pressure, humidity, cloud coverage, sunshine duration,
temperature, and radiation as input parameters [2]. ANNs were also
used to predict short- and mid-term solar power generation and to
determine the time horizon with the highest representative for the
prediction of the electricity generated by small-scale (750-W) solar
power systems [3]. A 3-h-ahead prediction model was developed
using a weather forecast metric of the sky condition [4]. As a part
of ongoing work of [4], machine learning based on the support
vector machine (SVM) was applied to the 3-h-ahead prediction
using the weather forecast of six weather metrics provided every
hour by the National Weather Service in the USA as input data [5].
A least-square SVM-based model was proposed for the 1-h-ahead
prediction for the atmospheric transmissivity, which is converted to
solar power according to the latitude of the site and the time of the
day [6]. Fuzzy decision trees were developed to predict the present
solar power generation using the present weather forecast
information, past weather forecast data, and observed weather
records [7]. The applicability of heterogeneous regression
algorithms was investigated for 6-h-ahead solar power availability
forecasting using the historical weather data including temperature,
wind speed and direction, and humidity obtained from
Rockhampton, Australia [8]. Recently, a methodology based on the
publicly available numerical weather prediction models was
presented to generate day-ahead power output forecasts for two PV
plants in the American Southwest [9].
In this study, we use the historical data of power generation as
well as the daily weather forecast information to develop a daily
prediction model for solar power generation. We propose a self-
adaptive prediction model which changes its control parameters on
a daily basis to fit the reality as best as possible without human

IET Renew. Power Gener., 2017, Vol. 11 Iss. 10, pp. 1268-1273 1268
© The Institution of Engineering and Technology 2017
Fig. 1 Network and hardware configuration of the PV monitoring system
intervention. The proposed model is compared with existing ones
such as linear regression and the ANN using field data of a solar
PV system currently operating in Korea.
2 Solar PV monitoring system
Solar PV systems use solar panels to convert sunlight into
electricity. A solar PV system comprises one or more PV panels, a
DC/AC power converter (also known as an inverter), a racking
system that holds the solar panels, electrical interconnections, and
mountings for the other components. Optionally, it may include a
maximum power point tracker, a battery system and a charger, a
solar tracker, a monitoring system, solar concentrators, or other
equipment. The electricity generated can be stored, used directly
(island/standalone plant), or fed into a large electricity grid
powered by central generation plants (grid-connected/grid-tied
plant), or combined with one or more domestic electricity
generators to feed a small grid (hybrid plant). The monitoring
system is used by the operators to remotely monitor the
performance of the PV system (i.e. a power-generated system),
examine the environmental data, such as temperature and
insolation on inclined surfaces, and determine the status of the
system. Operators can evaluate the performance of the PV system
and enhance maintenance of the system using the monitoring
system. Please refer to [10, 11] for further details on the monitoring
system used for a solar PV plant.
In this study, we develop a daily prediction model for solar
power generation. The prediction model is used for implementing a
daily prediction software module that is embedded into the PV
monitoring system. Fig. 1 depicts a typical network and hardware
configuration of the PV monitoring system used in the Korea solar
PV industry. As shown in this figure, the monitoring system
communicates with the inverter and the sensor using the RS-232C
cable, and it is connected to the server of the Korea Meteorological
Administration (KMA) via the Internet.
The KMA offers a weather forecast web service in Korea. In
particular, it forecasts weather for a small area (such as a village or
a town) in 3-h units over the following 48 h; such a type of forecast
is called neighbourhood weather forecast. The weather forecast
information includes 12 types of weather elements, a few of which
include the temperature, humidity, precipitation probability, wind
speed and direction, and sky condition. The really simple
syndication or rich site summary (RSS) service is open to the
public to forecast weather at 3-h intervals over the next 2 days, as
well as to facilitate weekly weather forecast at a 1-day interval in
an XML data format. The advantage of the RSS is that people can
easily obtain an updated weather forecast without visiting the
national weather service website as well as customise the obtained
information according to their use.
3 Daily prediction model for solar PV power
generation
IET Renew. Power Gener., 2017, Vol. 11 Iss. 10, pp. 1268-1273
© The Institution of Engineering and Technology 2017
The rated capacity of a solar PV plant is defined as the maximum
amount of power generated per hour in the plant when the solar PV
cells are exposed to an insolation of 1000 W/m2. The rated
capacity of the solar PV depends on the characteristics of the solar
PV cell used, such as the product type, the manufacturer, and the
number of PV cells installed. Let Pd, t be the power generated by
the solar PV plant per hour from time t to t + 1 on day d, Id, t be the
amount of insolation on the slope of the solar panels at time t on
day d, R be the rated capacity of the solar PV plant in kW, and Cd, t
be the efficiency factor of the solar PV system at time t on day d. It
should be noted that the efficiency reflects the performance
degradation of the system due to the loss of power when electricity
is converted from DC to AC, contamination of cells by dust, bird
droppings, and deterioration of components and materials by aging
or external environment such as the outside temperature and
humidity. In the solar PV industry, it is well known that Pd, t is
proportional to Id, t [12]. Thus, we obtain the following equation:
Id , t
Pd, t = R ⋅ ⋅ C kW (1)
1, 000 d, t
We can use (1) to predict the amount of power generated per hour
in the solar plant. In (1), R is kept constant, while Id, t and Cd, t vary
with time. Given that Id, t depends on the weather, it can be
estimated using the weather forecast information. In addition, Cd, t
can be estimated using the past data on the differences between the
actual generation quantities and the predicted ones, and it can be
^
considered as a correction factor between the two values. Let Pd, t,
^ ^
I d, t, and Cd, t be the estimated values of Pd, t, Id, t, and Cd, t,
respectively. Then, we obtain the following equation:
^
^
I d, t ^
Pd, t = R ⋅ ⋅ Cd, t kW (2)
1, 000
Among the various weather factors, insolation is directly related to
the cloud cover and season. Therefore, we use the cloud cover
^
forecast provided by the KMA to obtain I d, t. The cloud cover can
be predicted by using the sky condition code obtained from the
weather forecast information. The sky condition code provided by
the KMA ranges from 1 to 4, where 1 denotes clear; 2, partly
cloudy; 3, mostly cloudy; and 4, cloudy. However, these four sky
^
condition codes are not sufficiently precise to obtain I d, t because
even when it is expected to rain or snow, the given sky condition
code is ‘4: cloudy’. In practice, the PV power generation efficiency
is considerably reduced when it rains or snows. To increase the
prediction accuracy, we introduce an additional sky condition code,
i.e.; 5: rain or snow’ in case the sky condition code is ‘4: cloudy’
^
and the precipitation probability is >60%. We obtain I d, t by
calculating the average real insolation of the four most recent days
1269
at time t where the sky condition code is identical to that on day d ^L 1 Pi, t
3 i ∈∑
at time t. It should be noted that the actual insolation is measured Cd, t = ~ (5)
Ψd, t Pi, t
using the module sensor in the PV monitoring system.
Assume that today is 8 August 2016, denoted by day 10, the ~ ~
current time is 5:00 am, and today's sky condition code at 11:00 am In (5), if Ii, t = 0, Pi, t and Pi, t become zeros, hence Pi, t /Pi, t has no
is expected to be 4 (cloudy) according to the latest weather defined value mathematically. In this case, however, it is set to 1.0
forecast. Table 1 summarises the measured insolation at 11:00 am for convenience.
^L
during the recent 7 days. As listed in this table, four days (i.e. day In Table 2, we show how C10, 11 is obtained using an example. In
3, day 5, day 6, and day 7) where the sky condition code was 4 at the table, T i, 11, Ii, 11, and Pi, 11 are the actual measurement values, and
11:00 am were noted. Therefore, we have ~
^ Pi, t is obtained from (4). In this example, it is assumed that R = 60,
I 10, 11 = (I3, 11 + I5, 11 + I6, 11 + I7, 11)/4 = 329.25 Wh/m2. ρ = − 0.0042, and Ψ10, 11 = {3, 5, 9}. Using (5), we obtain
In this study, we assume that the efficiency factor Cd, t is a ^L
C10, 11 = 0.99.
multiplication of the temperature correction factor CdT, t and the loss
According to (2), (3), and (5), (6) is obtained as follows:
correction factor CdL, t; i.e. Cd, t = CdT, t ⋅ CdL, t. At first, we estimate
CdT, t as follows:
^
^ I d, t ^T ^L
Pd, t = R ⋅ ⋅ Cd, t ⋅ Cd, t = R
1, 000
^T ^ ~ (6)
Cd, t = 1 + ρ ⋅ (T d, t − T s) (3) ^
I d, t Pi, t /Pi, t
⋅ [1 + ρ ⋅ (T d, t − T s)] ⋅ ∑
^
⋅ kW
1, 000 i∈Ψ
3
where ρ = temperature coefficient of the module (PV module d, t
^
characteristic value), T d, t = forecasted outside temperature at time t
Assume that the solar PV system is operated from 6 am to 5 pm.
on day d, T s = standard temperature (generally set to 25°C). Then, we can predict the daily power generation of the solar PV
The PV module exhibits a unique temperature coefficient ρ, system by summing up the predicted amount of power generated
which is a negative value and is determined according to the ^
per hour obtained by (6) from 6 am to 5 pm. Let Pd be the
material used and the manufacturing technology. Equation (3)
estimated value of the total amount of power generated on day d.
indicates that the power generation efficiency decreases if the ^
outside temperature is higher than the standard temperature and Then, Pd is obtained using the following equation:
vice versa.
17
On the other hand, the loss correction factor CdL, t can be
∑ Pd t kW
^ ^
Pd = , (7)
considered as a correction factor to minimise the differences t=6
between the actual amounts of power generated and the predicted
~
amounts. As a first step to estimate CdL, t, let Pi, t be an expected Table 3 summarises the results of calculation to obtain P10 for the
^

power generated without considering the loss correction factor, and previous example. Recall that today is 8 August 2015, which is
it is calculated using (4) as follows: denoted by day 10, and the current time is 5:00 am. We use the
latest weather forecast information provided by the KMA available
~ Ii, t ^T Ii, t at 5:00 am to predict today's power generation. As listed in this
P i, t = R ⋅ ⋅ Cd, t = R ⋅ ⋅ {1 + ρ ⋅ (T i, t − T s)} kW (4)
1000 1000 ^
table, P10 and P10 are 218.4 and 218 kW, respectively. It should be
noted that the proposed prediction model is a self-adaptive model
In (4), Ii, t and T i, t are the known actual measurement values in that the efficiency factor changes automatically on a daily basis
because day i is the past of day d; i.e. i < d. Let Ψd, t be a set of the without human intervention to fit the reality as best as possible.
three most recent days on which the sky condition codes at time t
are the same to the forecasted sky condition code at time t on day 4 Empirical experiments
^L
d. Then, the estimated loss correction factor Cd, t is obtained by
~ We use 32-month field data (from January 2014 to August 2016) of
calculating an average ratio of Pi, t to Pi, t, where i ∈ Ψd, t. That is, the solar PV system installed in Gumi Electronics and Information
^L
Cd, t is obtained using (5), as shown below: Technology Research Institute (GERI), Korea, to test performance

Table 1 An example of measured insolation at 11:00 during recent 7 days (unit: W/m2)
Day Sky code
1 2 3 4 5
3 — — — 385 —
4 — — 532 — —
5 — — — 298 —
6 — — — 335 —
7 — — — 299 —
8 — — — — 31
9 — — 516 — —

^L
Table 2 Required values for calculating C10, 11 in the example
Notation Day (i)
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
T i, 11 ∘C 25.8 28.1 24.4 20.6 21.5 29.6 28.2
Ii, 11 W/m2 938 724 418 142 258 931 468
Pi, 11 kW 37 36 37 7 11 32 23
~
Pi, 11 kW 56.09 42.87 25.14 8.68 15.71 54.78 27.70

1270 IET Renew. Power Gener., 2017, Vol. 11 Iss. 10, pp. 1268-1273
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 ^
Table 3 Calculation of P10 in the example
Time Sky code ^
I 10, t, W/m2
^
T 10, t, ∘C ^T
C10, t
^L
C10, t
^
P10, t, kW P10, t, kW
6:00 4 0.00 28.8 1.01 0.00 0.0 0
7:00 4 48.00 28.8 1.01 2.03 5.7 3
8:00 4 152.25 28.8 1.01 0.97 8.8 5
9:00 4 286.50 31.2 1.00 0.83 14.0 10
10:00 4 341.75 31.2 0.99 0.98 19.6 15
11:00 4 329.25 31.2 0.99 0.84 16.2 20
12:00 3 814.50 32.3 0.97 0.63 29.7 33
13:00 3 831.00 32.3 0.97 0.85 40.8 33
14:00 3 559.00 32.3 0.97 0.61 20.0 35
15:00 3 653.00 31.4 0.98 0.86 32.8 31
16:00 3 504.50 31.4 0.98 0.63 18.6 22
17:00 3 448.50 31.4 0.98 0.46 12.1 11
Total 218.4 218

Table 4 Monthly average PPEs of the five prediction models (unit: %)

Month Adaptive Practical Regression ANN SVM
May 10.7 23.4 15.3 13.5 13.7
June 12.7 22.4 12.2 14.5 12.8
July 12.5 22.9 13.4 13.9 13.5
August 14.8 23.8 14.9 17.7 14.2
average 12.7 23.6 14.0 14.9 13.5

of the proposed prediction model. The GERI PV system has
R = 27.34 kW/h and uses the glass to glass BIPV module of KD
Power Co., Ltd. with ρ = − 0.0043. The GERI PV system is
operated from 6 am to 7 pm in spring and summer (from March to
August) and from 7 am to 6 pm in autumn and winter (from
September to February) considering the variations of sunshine
duration according to seasonality. We compare the proposed
prediction model, called the adaptive model in this study, with four
existing models: the practical model, the regression model, the
ANN model, and the SVM model.
The practical model is identical to the adaptive model except
that the efficiency of the solar PV system is assumed to be 0.7
irrespective of time for simplicity. In practice, based on the
experience of the PV power generation business professionals, the
efficiency factor was found to be approximately 0.7 on average.
Equation (8) represents the practical model
^
^ I d, t
Pd, t = R ⋅ ⋅ 0.7 kW (8)
1, 000
The regression model represents the relationship between power
generation (dependent variable), insolation, and the outside
temperature (explanatory variables) using a linear equation, as
shown below. It is known that power generation is most affected by
insolation and the outside temperature among various weather
factors [4].
Pd, t = α + β ⋅ Id, t + γ ⋅ T d, t + εd, t kW (9)
In (9), α and β are parameters, and εd, t is an error term. To obtain
the estimators for α, β, and γ, we used the least-squares approach
that minimises the sum of the squared residuals of the linear
regression model using the 28-month (from January 2014 to April
2016) field data of the GERI PV system. As a result, we obtained
the following prediction model:
^ ^ ^ because the system was shut down for several hours on that day to
Pd, t = − 3.321 + 0.030 ⋅ I d, t + 0.054 ⋅ T d, t kW (10)
Statistical software R version 3.3.2 was used to generate the ANN
and the SVM models which use insolation, outside temperature,
sky condition code and month as input data. We used 28-month
(from January 2014 to April 2016) field data of the GERI PV
system to build the two models. The ANN model has the input
layer with 4 nodes, the hidden layer with 15 nodes, and the output
layer with 1 node. In the SVM model, the radial basis function
(RBF) kernel was used and values of the two RBF parameters, cost
and gamma, were set to 1 and 0.5, respectively, after parameter
tuning.
We predicted daily power generation of the GERI PV system
during 4 months (from May 2016 to August 2016) using the five
prediction models: adaptive, practical, regression, ANN, and SVM
models. Prediction for daily power generation in day i + 1 was
done at 5:00 pm on day i using the latest weather forecast
information available at that time. Let PPE, V P, and V M be the
percentage prediction error, the predicted value, and the actual
measured value, respectively. Then,
PPE = (( V P − V M )/V M ) × 100(%).
Table 4 shows the monthly averages of the PPE values of the
five prediction models. The adaptive model gave the best
performance on average for days in May and in July, whereas the
regression model and the SVM model were the best for June and
August, respectively. On the overall, the adaptive model was the
best of all and the SVM model was the second best. The superiority
of the adaptive model may be attributed to its high degree of
adaptability to altered conditions; it adapts to environmental
changes such as aging, contamination, and malfunction
dynamically to minimise the prediction error. On the other hand, all
prediction models gave the relatively large average prediction
errors for August. This may be due to incorrect weather forecast
information provided by the KMA in August 2016. We verified
that the weather forecasting accuracy was relatively low in August
2016 due to the unexpectedly long-lasting heat wave and the
unexpected cloudiness. Note that the prediction accuracy is directly
related to the weather forecasting accuracy because the weather
forecast information is used to estimate the solar insolation and
outside temperature in the five prediction models.
Table 5 lists the PPE values of the five prediction models for 30
days in August 2016. Note that data for 08-26 was excluded
perform inspection and maintenance. This table shows that the
adaptive model, the regression model and the SVM model are more
accurate than the other two models in terms of the average PPE
leaving the fluctuation aside. On 08-02 and 08-31, the prediction
errors were outstandingly large for all the prediction models. This
finding may be attributed to the fact that the weather forecast on

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© The Institution of Engineering and Technology 2017
Table 5 PPEs of the five prediction models for days in August 2016 (unit: %)
Date Adaptive Practical Regression ANN SVM
08-01 2.4 29.2 6.9 10.1 8.0
08-02 55.0 38.1 42.2 52.1 50.0
08-03 11.1 19.1 0.9 25.9 4.6
08-04 20.8 15.3 10.8 24.3 13.5
08-05 26.3 10.1 20.1 12.2 20.5
08-06 4.7 25.8 1.7 4.8 3.1
08-07 1.8 29.9 7.4 19.3 7.4
08-08 8.5 33.1 13.4 16.4 12.9
08-09 21.0 13.5 10.8 13.6 9.7
08-10 9.2 35.5 14.7 15.4 13.5
08-11 1.0 32.5 8.6 17.5 6.3
08-12 3.8 29.6 4.2 16.6 2.3
08-13 3.4 30.6 5.6 9.1 4.1
08-14 7.9 27.4 1.0 18.2 10.4
08-15 1.4 27.2 3.8 22.4 6.7
08-16 21.4 12.5 13.1 15.2 14.6
08-17 12.9 21.7 4.0 19.9 4.6
08-18 25.7 10.0 18.1 14.9 19.3
08-19 4.9 26.9 2.5 8.3 1.5
08-20 3.7 31.4 10.2 17.5 8.5
08-21 14.6 16.9 21.2 20.8 22.4
08-22 0.7 30.6 8.1 18.4 6.7
08-23 30.2 6.7 20.5 25.2 23.6
08-24 15.3 38.5 20.7 17.8 18.0
08-25 5.6 27.1 2.2 6.7 1.0
08-27 16.6 15.9 7.3 13.5 15.4
08-28 23.6 20.5 82.0 22.3 18.8
08-29 2.9 27.2 10.4 14.1 3.0
08-30 23.3 3.6 16.3 10.9 26.6
08-31 65.5 27.8 57.6 29.0 69.9
average 14.8 23.8 14.9 17.7 14.2

Fig. 2 PPE graph of the adaptive model

that day was grossly inaccurate. On 08-02, the sky condition code
from the weather forecast was 3 (mostly cloudy), but it was cloudy
and showered all day long. On 08-31, the sky condition code from
the weather forecast was 1 (clear) in the morning and 2 (partly
cloudy) in the afternoon, but it was partly cloudy in the morning
and mostly cloudy in the afternoon in reality. As a result, power
generation was substantially lower than predicted on the 2 days.
Fig. 2 shows the PPE graph of the adaptive model during the 4
months. As mentioned earlier, the graph fluctuates sharply and the
PPE values are relatively large in August. Fig. 3 shows the actual
power generation graph versus the prediction graph of the adaptive
model. It seems that the prediction fits to the reality well on the
whole except August. There is a trend that the adaptive model
overestimates power generation for the days in August. This
1272
overestimation may be attributed to the following two facts. First,
we had the unexpectedly long-lasting heat wave and the
unexpected cloudiness in August 2016, which decreased the power
generation efficiency unexpectedly. Second, insolation was slightly
overestimated in the prediction model by averaging the real
insolation values of the past to estimate today's insolation even
though insolation peaks in the summer solstice (June 22) and
begins to decline thereafter.
5 Conclusion
Most of the previous studies have focused on developing the
regression model and the ANN model for predicting short-term
solar power generation. These models have strong theoretical
foundations but in practice they leave a lot to be desired. The
IET Renew. Power Gener., 2017, Vol. 11 Iss. 10, pp. 1268-1273
© The Institution of Engineering and Technology 2017
Fig. 3 Actual power generation versus prediction by the adaptive model
regression model has to be regenerated periodically to fit the
reality, and the ANN model is not easy to use without theoretical
knowledge. Furthermore, both of them require a large amount of
historical operational data to build prediction models. To overcome
these drawbacks of the existing models, we developed a new
prediction model for predicting a daily solar power generation in
this study. The proposed model is based on the solar PV output
formula with a correction factor and uses weather forecast
information to estimate insolation and the correction factor. We
performed the empirical experiment using the 27.34-kW solar PV
system installed in GERI, Korea, to confirm that the proposed
model works better than the existing models. The major advantages
of the proposed model are five folds. First, it is easy to use because
parameter tuning is done automatically without human
intervention. Second, it does not require a large amount of
historical operational data to build a model. Third, its
computational logic is very simple, so it can be easily implemented
in practice. Forth, its prediction accuracy is superior to competing
models. Finally, and most importantly, it can reflect the
performance degradation of the system due to aging or external
environment properly by adjusting the loss correction factor
accordingly.
The proposed daily prediction model can be easily extended to
a 3-h-ahead prediction model by properly modifying (7) although it
is not necessary in Korea as now. As further research, we need to
develop a more sophisticated prediction model using various
weather information indices such as the dew point, wind speed and
direction, and humidity in addition to cloud cover and temperature.
Moreover, the typical weather characteristics of Korea, such as
yellow dust, fine dust, typhoon, and snow, should be also
considered to improve the prediction accuracy. Also, deep learning,
i.e. machine learning using a deep neural network seems to be quite
promising for predicting short-term solar power generation if both
big historical operational data and cloud computing infrastructure
are available.
IET Renew. Power Gener., 2017, Vol. 11 Iss. 10, pp. 1268-1273
© The Institution of Engineering and Technology 2017
6 Acknowledgments
This work was supported by the Incheon National University
(International Cooperative) Research Grant in 2015.
7 References
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