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PAKISTAN AFFAIRS
LECTURE 12
AD MOD 2019
CSS 2020
AC IRS
LECTURE 12
Proxy Wars: Role of External Elements
The war in Afghanistan since 1979 and its impact on, and
challenges to Pakistan in the Post 2014 era
The Palestine Issue
A proxy war is an armed conflict between two states or non-state actors which act on the
instigation or on behalf of other parties that are not directly involved in the hostilities.
In order for a conflict to be considered a proxy war, there must be a direct, long-term
relationship between external actors and the belligerents involved.
The aforementioned relationship usually takes the form of funding, military training,
arms, or other forms of material assistance which assist a belligerent party in sustaining
its war effort.
Why Proxies?
I. Less Coast
II. Local fight and die
III. Lack of Power projection capacities (Iran VS USA)
IV. Peace at home; conflict far from their borders
V. Safe foreign policy tool (Denial option always open )
Despite the short time frame, the Cuban Missile Crisis remains a defining moment in U.S.
national security and nuclear war preparation. The confrontation is often considered the
closest the Cold War came to escalating into a full-scale nuclear war.
The foundations of the conflict were laid by the Saur Revolution, a 1978 coup
wherein Afghanistan's communist party took power, initiating a series of radical
modernization and land reforms throughout the country.
These reforms were deeply unpopular among the more traditional rural
population and established power structures.
The repressive nature of the "Democratic Republic",which vigorously suppressed
opposition and executed thousands of political prisoners, led to the rise of anti-
government armed groups; by April 1979, large parts of the country were in open
rebellion.
The communist party itself experienced deep internal rivalries between the
Khalqists and Parchamites; in September 1979, People's Democratic Party
General Secretary Nur Mohammad Taraki was assassinated under orders of the
second-in-command, Hafizullah Amin, which soured relations with the Soviet
Union.
With fears rising that Amin was planning to switch sides to the United States, the
Soviet government, under leader Leonid Brezhnev, decided to deploy the 40th
Army across the border on December 24, 1979. Arriving in the capital Kabul, they
staged a coup (Operation Storm-333),killing General Secretary Amin and installing
Soviet loyalist Babrak Karmal from the rival faction Parcham. The Soviet invasion
was based on the Brezhnev Doctrine.
The Soviets initially planned to secure towns and roads, stabilize the government
under new leader Karmal, and withdraw within six months or a year. But they
were met with fierce resistance from the guerillas and had difficulties on the
harsh cold Afghan terrain,resulting in them being stuck in a bloody war that lasted
nine years.
By the mid-1980s, the Soviet contingent was increased to 108,800 and fighting
increased, but the military and diplomatic cost of the war to the USSR was high.
By mid-1987 the Soviet Union, now under reformist leader General Secretary
Mikhail Gorbachev, announced it would start withdrawing its forces after
meetings with the Afghan government.The final troop withdrawal started on May
15, 1988, and ended on February 15, 1989, leaving the government forces alone
in the battle against the insurgents, which continued until 1992, when the former
Soviet-backed government collapsed. Due to its length, it has sometimes been
referred to as the "Soviet Union's Vietnam War" or the "Bear Trap" by the
Western media.
The Soviets' failure in the war is thought to be a contributing factor to the fall of
the Soviet Union.
It has left a mixed legacy in the former Soviet Union and in Afghanistan.
Additionally, U.S. policies in the war are also thought to have contributed to a
"blowback" of unintended consequences against American interests.
The civil war began in September 2014 when Houthi forces took over the
capital city Sanaa, which was followed by a rapid Houthi takeover of the
government. On 21 March 2015, the Houthi-led Supreme Revolutionary
Committee declared a general mobilization to overthrow
Hadi and expand their control by driving into southern provinces. The
Houthi offensive, allied with military forces loyal to Saleh, began
fighting the next day in Lahij Governorate. By 25 March, Lahij fell to the
Houthis and they reached the outskirts of Aden, the seat of power for
Hadi's government. Hadi fled the country the same day.Concurrently, a
coalition led by Saudi Arabia launched military operations by using air
strikes to restore the former Yemeni government. Although there was
no direct intervention by Iran, who support the Houthis,the conflict has
been widely seen as an extension of the Iran–Saudi Arabia proxy conflict
and as a means to combat Iranian influence in the region.
Houthi forces currently control the capital Sanaa and all of North Yemen
except Marib Governorate. They have clashed with Saudibacked pro-
government forces loyal to Hadi.
Since the formation of the Southern Transitional Council in 2017 and the
subsequent capture of Aden by the STC in 2018, the anti-Houthi coalition
has been fractured, with regular clashes between pro-Hadi forces backed
5. Syrian conflict
The Syrian Civil War is an ongoing multi-sided civil war, fought in Syria, between the
Syrian Arab Republic led by Syrian president Bashar al-Assad (along with domestic and
foreign allies) and various domestic and foreign forces that oppose both the Syrian
government and each other (in varying combinations).
The unrest in Syria (which began on 15 March 2011 as part of the wider 2011 Arab Spring
protests) grew out of discontent with the Syrian government and escalated to an armed
conflict after protests calling for Assad's removal were violently suppressed.
The war is currently being fought by several factions, including the Syrian Armed Forces
and its domestic and international allies, a loose alliance of mostly Sunni opposition
rebel groups (such as the Free Syrian Army), Salafi jihadist groups (including al-Nusra
Front and Tahrir al-Sham), the mixed Kurdish-Arab Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and
the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
A number of foreign countries, such as Iran, Russia, Turkey, and the United States, have
either directly involved themselves in the conflict or provided support to one or another
faction. Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah support the Syrian Arab Republic and the Syrian
Armed Forces militarily, with Russia conducting airstrikes and other military operations
since September 2015. The U.S.-led international coalition, established in 2014 with the
declared purpose of countering ISIL, has conducted airstrikes primarily against ISIL as
well as some against government and pro-government targets.
They have also deployed special forces and artillery units to engage ISIL on the ground.
Since 2015, the U.S. has supported the Autonomous Administration of North and East
Syria and its armed wing, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), materially, financially, and
logistically.
At different times, the Turkish state has fought the SDF, ISIL, and the Syrian government
since 2016, but has also actively supported the Syrian opposition and occupied large
Effects
The war in Afghanistan since 1979 and its impact on, and challenges
to Pakistan in the Post 2014 era
Soviet-Afghan War
The Soviet–Afghan War was a conflict wherein insurgent groups (known collectively as the
Mujahideen), as well as smaller Maoist groups, fought a nine-year guerrilla war against the Soviet
Army and the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan government throughout the 1980s, mostly in
the Afghan countryside.
The Mujahideen were variously backed primarily by the United States, Pakistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia, China,
and the United Kingdom; the conflict was a Cold War-era proxy war. Between
562,000 and 2,000,000 Afghans were killed and millions more fled the country as
refugees,mostly to Pakistan and Iran.
Between 6.5%–11.5% of Afghanistan's population is estimated to have perished in the conflict. The war
caused grave destruction in Afghanistan and is believed to have contributed to the Soviet collapse and the
end of the Cold War, in hindsight leaving a mixed legacy to people in both territories.
The foundations of the conflict were laid by the Saur Revolution, a 1978 coup wherein Afghanistan's
communist party took power, initiating a series of radical modernization and land reforms throughout the
country. These reforms were deeply unpopular among the more traditional rural population and
established power structures.
The repressive nature of the "Democratic Republic", which vigorously suppressed opposition
and executed thousands of political prisoners, led to the rise of anti-government armed groups; by
April 1979, large parts of the country were in open rebellion.
The communist party itself experienced deep internal rivalries between the Khalqists and
Parchamites; in September 1979, People's Democratic Party General Secretary Nur Mohammad
Taraki was assassinated under orders of the second-in-command, Hafizullah Amin, which soured
relations with the Soviet Union. With fears rising that Amin was planning to switch sides to the
United States, the Soviet government, under leader Leonid Brezhnev, decided to deploy the 40th
Army across the border on December 24, 1979.
Arriving in the capital Kabul, they staged a coup (Operation Storm-333), killing General Secretary
Amin and installing Soviet loyalist Babrak Karmal from the rival faction Parcham.
The Soviet invasion was based on the Brezhnev Doctrine.
In January 1980, foreign ministers from 34 nations of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation
adopted a resolution demanding "the immediate, urgent and unconditional withdrawal of Soviet
troops" from Afghanistan.
government and Soviet control, almost exclusively being the rugged, mountainous terrain of the
countryside.
The Soviets used their air power to deal harshly with both rebels and civilians, levelling villages to
deny safe haven to the Mujahideen, destroying vital irrigation ditches, and laying millions of land
mines.
The international community imposed numerous sanctions and embargoes against the Soviet Union,
and the U.S. led a boycott of the 1980 Summer Olympics held in Moscow.
The boycott and sanctions exacerbated Cold War tensions and enraged the Soviet government,
which later led a revenge boycott of the 1984 Olympics held in Los Angeles.
The Soviets initially planned to secure towns and roads, stabilize the government under new leader
Karmal, and withdraw within six months or a year.
But they were met with fierce resistance from the guerillas and had difficulties on the harsh cold
Afghan terrain, resulting in them being stuck in a bloody war that lasted nine years.
By the mid-1980s, the Soviet contingent was increased to 108,800 and fighting increased, but the
military and diplomatic cost of the war to the USSR was high.
By mid-1987 the Soviet Union, now under reformist leader General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev,
announced it would start withdrawing its forces after meetings with the Afghan government.
The final troop withdrawal started on May 15, 1988, and ended on February 15, 1989, leaving
the government forces alone in the battle against the insurgents, which continued until 1992, when
the former Soviet-backed government collapsed.
Due to its length, it has sometimes been referred to as the "Soviet Union's Vietnam War" or the
"Bear Trap" by the Western media.
The Soviets' failure in the war is thought to be a contributing factor to the fall of the Soviet Union.
It has left a mixed legacy in the former Soviet Union and in Afghanistan.
Additionally, U.S. policies in the war are also thought to have contributed to a "blowback" of
unintended consequences against American interests.
Assignment:
2019 25 March
United States recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights: U.S. President Donald
Trump signed a presidential proclamation to officially recognize Israel's sovereignty over the
Golan Heights.
2021
ASSIGNMENT:
1. Various Arab nations have recognized Israel as
a legitimate stayte. Should Pakistan recognize
Israel ? What benefits Pakistan can get by
recognizing Israel ?