‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﻣﺘﻦ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ‪ ،‬ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﻪﺍﻱ ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺎﺗﻲ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﺗﺪﺭﻳﺲ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛـﻼﻥ )‪(۱‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﻛﺎﺭﺷﻨﺎﺳﻲ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺗﻬﻴﻪ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻳﻜﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻫـﺪﺍﻑ ﺗﻨﻈـﻴﻢ ﺍﻳـﻦ‬
‫ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﻪ‪ ،‬ﺍﺳـﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻨـﺎﺑﻊ ﻭ ﻣﻄﺎﻟـﺐ ﺩﺭﺳـﻲ ﺍﺳـﺖ ﻛـﻪ ﺍﻛﻨـﻮﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺮﺧـﻲ ﺍﺯ‬
‫ﺩﺍﻧﺸﮕﺎﻩﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﻌﺘﺒﺮ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﺠﺎﺋﻴﻜـﻪ‬
‫ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺻﺮﻓﺎﹰ ﺑﺮﻣﺒﻨﺎﻱ ﻣﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﻃﺮﺡ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻣﺪﺭﺱ ﺩﺭ ﻛـﻼﺱ ﻣـﻲﺑﺎﺷـﺪ‪،‬‬
‫ﺑﺪﻳﻬﻲ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﻧﺒﻮﺩﻩ ﻭ ﻫﻨﻮﺯ ﺩﺭ ﺟﻬﺖ ﮔﺴﺘﺮﺵ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﻭ ﺗﻜﻤﻴـﻞ ﺁﻥ‪ ،‬ﺑـﻪ‬
‫ﺗﻼﺵﻫﺎﻱ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮﻱ ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺳﺮﻓﺼﻞ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺟﺰﻭﻩ ﺑﺎ ﺫﻛﺮ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ‪ ،‬ﺍﺳﺎﺗﻴﺪ ﻭ ﺩﺍﻧﺸﮕﺎﻫﻬﺎﻳﻲ ﻛـﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻨﻈـﻴﻢ‬
‫» ﻓﻬﺮﺳﺖ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﻭ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﻛﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻗﺘـﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺁﻥ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﻛﻼﻥ ‪ «۱‬ﭘﻴﻮﺳﺖ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﭘﻴﻮﺳﺖ‪ ،‬ﺳﺮﻓﺼﻞﻫﺎ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺳﺎﺗﻴﺪ ﻭ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﺍﺭﺍﻳﻪ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺩﺍﻧﺸﮕﺎﻩﻫﺎﻱ‬
‫ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻃﻪ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﻳﻨﺘﺮﻧﺖ ﻣﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻋﻼﻗﻪﻣﻨﺪﺍﻥ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻧﻨﺪ ﺑﺎ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﺷﺪﻥ‬
‫ﺑﻪ )‪ (Homepage‬ﻧﮕﺎﺭﻧﺪﻩ ﻛـﻪ ﻧـﺸﺎﻧﻲ ﺁﻥ ﺩﺭ ﭘﻴﻮﺳـﺖ ﺁﻣـﺪﻩ ﺍﺳـﺖ‪ ،‬ﺑـﻪ ﻃـﻮﺭ‬
‫ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ ﺑﺎ ﺩﺍﻧﺸﮕﺎﻩﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺍﺳﺎﺗﻴﺪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺩﺭﺱ ﻣـﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺷـﻮﻧﺪ ﻭ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻨـﺎﺑﻊ ﻭ ﻣﻄﺎﻟـﺐ‬
‫ﺩﺭﺳﻲ ﮔﺬﺷﺘﻪ ﻭ ﺣﺎﻝ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻨﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﮕﺎﺭﻧﺪﻩ‪ ،‬ﺍﺯ ﺗﻤﺎﻣﻲ ﺍﺳﺎﺗﻴﺪ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﻧﺸﺠﻮﻳﺎﻥ ﻭ ﺧﻮﺍﻧﻨﺪﮔﺎﻥ ﻣﺤﺘﺮﻣﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺭﻓـﻊ‬
‫ﺍﺷﻜﺎﻝ ﻭ ﺗﻜﻤﻴﻞ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﻪ ﭘﻴﺸﻨﻬﺎﺩﻫﺎﻳﻲ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺭﺍﻳﻪ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎﻝ ﺗﺸﻜﺮ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﻓﻬﺮﺳﺖ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﺐ‬
‫('&‪%‬‬ ‫‪!"#$‬‬
‫‪۱‬‬ ‫‪%)*+! ,)-.'/ + 0.)12‬‬
‫‪۱‬‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﻋﻠﻢ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫‪۱‬‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺧﺮﺩ‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫‪۴‬‬ ‫‪(D1/ B/EF8 7F!B6.GH) 78.9:;! <2 7.-=)>:/ 7=)? @A!BC! : 3+! 456‬‬
‫‪۴‬‬ ‫‪ (۱-۱‬ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥ ﻣﺪﻭﺭ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬
‫‪۱۰‬‬ ‫‪ (۱-۲‬ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺪﺍﺭﻱ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ‬
‫‪۱۰‬‬ ‫‪ -‬ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ )‪(GNP‬‬
‫‪۱۲‬‬ ‫‪ -‬ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ‬
‫‪۱۲‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻒ( ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ )‪(GNP‬ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪﻱ )ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺍﻓﺰﻭﺩﻩ(‬
‫‪۱۵‬‬ ‫ﺏ( ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ )‪ (GNP‬ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ‬
‫‪۱۷‬‬ ‫ﺝ( ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ )‪ (GNP‬ﺍﺯ ﺭﻭﺵ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪﻱ‬
‫‪۱۸‬‬ ‫‪ (۱-۳‬ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻱ‬
‫‪۲۰‬‬ ‫‪ (۱-۴‬ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺗﻮﺭﻡ ! ‪ GNP‬ﺑﻪ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﻳﺎ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻲ(‬
‫‪۲۰‬‬ ‫ﻧﺤﻮﻩ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ‬
‫‪۲۱‬‬ ‫‪ (۱‬ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﻣﻴﺎﻧﮕﻴﻦ ﺳﺎﺩﻩ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ‬
‫‪۲۲‬‬ ‫‪ (۲‬ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﻣﻴﺎﻧﮕﻴﻦ ﻭﺯﻧﻲ‬
‫‪۲۲‬‬ ‫‪ -‬ﺭﻭﺵ ﻻﺳﭙﻴﺮﺯ‬
‫‪۲۳‬‬ ‫‪ -‬ﺭﻭﺵ ﭘﺎﺷﻪ‬
‫‪۲۴‬‬ ‫‪ -‬ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻓﻴﺸﺮ‬
‫‪۲۴‬‬ ‫‪ -‬ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻣﻴﺎﻧﮕﻴﻦ‬
‫‪۲۸‬‬ ‫ﻛﺎﺭﺑﺮﺩ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬
‫‪۲۸‬‬ ‫ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‬
‫‪۲۸‬‬ ‫ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺿﻤﻨﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ‬
‫‪۲۹‬‬ ‫ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻟﻪ ﺑﺎﺯﺭﮔﺎﻧﻲ‬
‫‪۳۰‬‬ ‫‪ (۱-۵‬ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩﻳﺖ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﻠﻲ )‪(GNP‬‬
‫‪32‬‬ ‫‪IJ.G/‬‬
‫‪36‬‬ ‫‪E =6 =OP/ I/!"$ + 78.9:;! <2 7.-=))>:/ L))MN @"&C : K+8 456‬‬
‫‪۳۶‬‬ ‫‪ (۲-۱‬ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺑﺮﺧﻲ ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ‬
‫‪۳۷‬‬ ‫‪ (۲-۲‬ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻭ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ‬
‫‪۳۸‬‬ ‫‪ (۲-۲-۱‬ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ‬
‫‪۴۰‬‬ ‫‪ (۲-۲-۲‬ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻞ‬
‫‪۴۲‬‬ ‫‪ (۲-۲-۳‬ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻛﺎﻻ ﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ‬

‫!‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪۴۳‬‬ ‫‪ (۲-۳‬ﻧﻘﺶ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ‬

‫‪۴۳‬‬ ‫‪ -‬ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﺑﻠﻨﺪ ﻣﺪﺕ ﻭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻮﻩ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‬
‫‪۴۵‬‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ ﻣﺪﺕ‬
‫‪۴۷‬‬ ‫‪ (-۲-۴‬ﻣﺪﻝ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ ﺑﺎ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻫﺎﻱ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ‬
‫‪۴۹‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻱ ﺩﻭ ﺑﺨﺸﻲ‬
‫‪۶۸‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻱ ﺳﻪ ﺑﺨﺸﻲ‬
‫‪۶۸‬‬ ‫‪ -‬ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻱ ﺳﻪ ﺑﺨﺸﻲ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ )‪(Go‬‬
‫‪۷۱‬‬ ‫‪ -‬ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻱ ﺳﻪ ﺑﺨﺸﻲ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺩﻭﻟﺘﻲ )‪ (Go‬ﻭ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ )‪(T‬‬
‫‪۸۲‬‬ ‫‪ -‬ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻱ ﭼﻬﺎﺭ ﺑﺨﺸﻲ‬
‫‪۸۷‬‬ ‫‪ -‬ﻣﻌﻤﺎﻱ ﺧﺴﺖ‬
‫‪89‬‬ ‫‪IJ.G/‬‬
‫‪۹۳‬‬ ‫‪ (۲-۵‬ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﻛﻞ‬
‫‪۹۸‬‬ ‫‪ (۲-۶‬ﻣﺪﻝ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ ﺑﺎ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﻴﺮ‬
‫‪۹۸‬‬ ‫ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻭ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﻭ ﻧﺤﻮﻩ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ‬
‫‪۹۹‬‬ ‫ﻧﺤﻮﻩ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ‬
‫‪۹۹‬‬ ‫‪ -‬ﺷﻮﻙ ﻫﺎﻱ ﻧﺎﺷﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ‬
‫‪۱۰۶‬‬ ‫‪ -‬ﺷﻮﻙ ﻫﺎﻱ ﻧﺎﺷﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ‬
‫‪۱۱۱‬‬ ‫‪ -۲-۷‬ﭘﻮﻝ ﻭ ﻣﺪﻝ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ‬
‫‪۱۱۱‬‬ ‫‪ (۲-۷-۱‬ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﭘﻮﻝ‬
‫‪۱۱۳‬‬ ‫‪ (۲-۷-۲‬ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻭ ﻧﺤﻮﻩ ﻛﻨﺘﺮﻝ ﺁﻥ )ﻧﺤﻮﻩ ﺧﻠﻖ ﭘﻮﻝ (‬
‫‪۱۱۹‬‬ ‫‪ (۲-۷-۳‬ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﻫﺎﻱ ﭘﻮﻟﻲ ﻭ ﻧﺤﻮﻩ ﻛﻨﺘﺮﻝ ﭘﻮﻝ‬
‫‪۱۲۰‬‬ ‫‪ (۱‬ﻧﺮﺥ ﺫﺧﻴﺮﻩ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻳﻦ‬
‫‪۱۲۰‬‬ ‫‪ (۲‬ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺩﺭ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺗﻨﺰﻳﻞ ﻣﺠﺪﺩ‬
‫‪۱۲۱‬‬ ‫‪ (۳‬ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﺑﺎﺯ‬
‫‪۱۲۲‬‬ ‫‪ (۲-۷-۴‬ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﭘﻮﻝ‬
‫‪۱۲۵‬‬ ‫‪ (۲-۷-۵‬ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﭘﻮﻝ‬
‫‪۱۲۶‬‬ ‫‪ -۲-۸‬ﻧﺤﻮﻩ ﺍﺛﺮﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺑﺮ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﻴﺮﻫﺎﻱ ﻛﻼﻥ ﻭ ﺍﺗﺨﺎﺫ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬
‫‪۱۲۷‬‬ ‫‪ (۲-۸-۱‬ﺍﺛﺮﺍﺕ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺪﻝ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ ﺑﺎ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻫﺎﻱ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ‬
‫‪۱۳۲‬‬ ‫‪ (۲-۸-۲‬ﺍﺛﺮﺍﺕ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺪﻝ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ ﺑﺎ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﻴﺮ‬
‫‪۱۳۲‬‬ ‫‪ -‬ﺷﻮﻙ ﻧﺎﺷﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ‬
‫‪۱۳۷‬‬ ‫‪ -‬ﺷﻮﻙ ﻧﺎﺷﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ‬
‫‪145‬‬ ‫‪!"#$‬‬
‫‪۱۴۶‬‬ ‫ﭘﻴﻮﺳﺖ ‪ :‬ﻓﻬﺮﺳﺖ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﻭ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﻛﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ ‪۱‬‬

‫"‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪:%&'() *&+",$ ( -"&./‬‬

‫‪ : 0"123) *.4 56789‬ﮔﺮﭼﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺯﻣﻴﻨﻪ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﻋﻠﻢ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‪ ،‬ﺗﻌﺎﺭﻳﻒ ﻣﺘﻌﺪﺩﻱ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ‬

‫ﺻﺎﺣﺒﻨﻈﺮﺍﻥ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻣﻄﺮﺡ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ ،‬ﺍﻣﺎ ﺍﻛﺜﺮﻳﺖ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺍﺯ ﻋﻠﻢ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬
‫ﻣﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ‪.‬‬
‫»ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﻧﺤﻮﻩ ﺗﺨﺼﻴﺺ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻛﻤﻴﺎﺏ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﺭﻓﻊ ﺣﺪﺍﻛﺜﺮ ﺧﻮﺍﺳﺘﻪﻫﺎﻱ ﻧﺎﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩ‬
‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ‪«.‬‬
‫ﻛﻤﻴﺎﺑﻲ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻭ ﺧﻮﺍﺳﺘﻪﻫﺎﻱ ﻧﺎﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩ ﺩﻭ ﻋﻨﺼﺮ ﺍﺻﻠﻲ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ ﻭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬
‫ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﭘﺎﺳﺨﮕﻮﻳﻲ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺳﺌﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﭼﮕﻮﻧﻪ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﺎ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ ﺣﺪﺍﻛﺜﺮ‬
‫ﺧﻮﺍﺳﺘﻪﻫﺎﻱ ﻧﺎﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩ ﺍﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮﻃﺮﻑ ﻧﻤﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫)‪ :07? 0"123‬ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻛﻠﻲ‪ ،‬ﺗﺠﺰﻳﻪ ﻭ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻭ‬ ‫)‪:";$ <0 =>/ 0"123‬‬
‫ﺳﻄﺢ ﻛﻼﻥ ﻭ ﺧﺮﺩ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ ﺁﻥ ﻗﺴﻤﺖ ﺍﺯ ﻋﻠﻢ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺯ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺭﻓﺘﺎﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎﻱ ﻛﻼﻥ ﻭ ﻛﻠﻲ ﻭ ﺭﻭﺍﺑﻂ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎﻱ ﻛﻼﻥ ﻫﻤﺎﻧﻨﺪ ﺗﻮﺭﻡ‪ ،‬ﺭﺷﺪ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﺍﺷﺘﻐﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﺭﻛﻮﺩ ﻭ ﻏﻴﺮﻩ‬
‫ﺩﺍﻣﻨﻪﺍﻱ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺗﺸﻜﻴﻞ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﻨﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﺪﻳﻦ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ‪ ،‬ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ ﻫﻢ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪﻱ ﺭﻓﺘﺎﺭ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎﻱ ﻛﻼﻥ ﻭ ﺩﻻﻳﻞ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺭﺍ‬
‫ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺁﻥ ﺩﺭ ﭼﺎﺭﭼﻮﺏ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﺛﺒﺎﺗﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﮔﻴﺮﺩ ﻭ ﺑﺮ‬
‫ﺭﻭﻧﺪ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻣﻲﮔﺬﺍﺭﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻮﻉ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﭼﺎﺭﭼﻮﺏ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺩﺳﺘﻮﺭﻱ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ‬
‫ﻣﻲﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺧﺮﺩ‪ ،‬ﭘﺪﻳﺪﻩﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺧﺮﺩ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﮔﻴﺮﻧﺪ؛ ﻫﻤﺎﻧﻨﺪ‬
‫ﺭﻓﺘﺎﺭ ﻳﻚ ﻣﺼﺮﻑﻛﻨﻨﺪﻩ ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﻧﺤﻮﻩ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻳﻚ ﻛﺎﻻ ﺩﺭ ﻳﻚ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﺧﺎﺹ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻛﻠﻲ‬
‫ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﺯ ﻛﻴﻨﺰ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩﻩﻱ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺧﺮﺩ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪ .‬ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢﮔﻴﺮﻱ‬
‫ﺍﺷﺨﺎﺹ )ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭ( ﺩﺭ ﺧﺼﻮﺹ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﭼﻘﺪﺭ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻛﻨﻨﺪ ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺘﻤﺰﺩﻱ ﻛﻪ‬
‫ﺩﺭﻳﺎﻓﺖ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﭼﻘﺪﺭ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻱ ﻛﺎﺭ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢﮔﻴﺮﻱ ﺑﻨﮕﺎﻩﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺧﺼﻮﺹ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﭼﻘﺪﺭ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻛﻨﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﺍﺯ ﻛﺪﺍﻡ ﻧﻬﺎﺩﻫﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻨﺪ )ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻬﺎﺩ‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﭼﻘﺪﺭ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻱ ﻛﺎﺭ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻛﻨﻨﺪ؟ ﻳﺎ ﭼﻘﺪﺭ ﻣﺎﺷﻴﻦﺁﻻﺕ ﻭ ﺗﺠﻬﻴﺰﺍﺕ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﺍﻱ ﺧﺮﻳﺪﺍﺭﻱ‬
‫ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻨﺪ؟(‬
‫ﻫﻤﭽﻨﺎﻥ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺧﺮﺩ ﻣﻄﺮﺡ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻛﻠﻲ ﺳﻪ ﺳﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﺳﺎﺳﻲ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮﺡ ﺯﻳﺮ‬
‫ﻣﻄﺮﺡ ﺍﺳﺖ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -١‬ﭼﻪ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺗﻲ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻭ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﻧﺪ؟‬
‫‪ -٢‬ﭼﮕﻮﻧﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﻧﺪ؟‬
‫‪ -٣‬ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﭼﻪ ﻛﺴﻲ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺷﻮﺩ؟‬
‫ﻛﻪ ﺍﻟﺒﺘﻪ ﭘﺎﺳﺦ ﻫﺮ ﻳﻚ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺣﺎﻛﻢ‪ ،‬ﻣﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫)‪:@A) B7C$ 76D B7E %: FA"A) G)HA %A =>/ 0"123) <0 "$‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻒ‪ -‬ﻭﺿﻌﻴﺖ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺍﺳﺘﺎﻧﺪﺍﺭﺩ ﺯﻧﺪﮔﻲ ﺩﺭ ﻳﻚ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﭼﮕﻮﻧﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﭼﻪ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﻲ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ‬
‫ﺁﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻬﺒﻮﺩ ﺑﺨﺸﻴﺪ؟‬
‫ﺏ – ﺳﻄﺢ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﺯﻧﺪﮔﻲ ﺩﺭ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺑﻪ ﭼﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﭼﮕﻮﻧﻪ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺁﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺗﻨﻈﻴﻢ ﻧﻤﻮﺩ؟‬
‫ﺝ – ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻩﮔﻴﺮﻱ ﻧﻮﺳﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭ ﭼﮕﻮﻧﮕﻲ ﻛﻨﺘﺮﻝ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻮﺳﺎﻧﺎﺕ؟‬
‫ﻫﺮ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﻳﻚ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﺍﺯ ﺭﻓﺎﻩ ﻧﺴﺒﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺭﻓﺎﻩ ﻣﺰﺑﻮﺭ ﺑﻪ ﻧﺤﻮﻱ ﺑﻴﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺁﻥ ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﻓﺎﻩ‪ ،‬ﺑﺴﺘﮕﻲ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪﻫﺎ ﻭ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎﻱ ﺯﻧﺪﮔﻲ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﮔﻮﻧﻪﺍﻱ ﻛﻪ ﻫﺮ ﭼﻪ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﺯﻧﺪﮔﻲ ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺮ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺍﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺑﺎﻗﻲ ﺑﻤﺎﻧﺪ‪،‬‬
‫ﺭﻓﺎﻩ ﻧﺴﺒﻲ ﻛﻤﺘﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻧﻮﺳﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻫﻤﭽﻮﻥ ﺗﻮﺭﻡ ﻭ ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻱ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺪﺕ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎﻱ‬
‫ﺯﻧﺪﮔﻲ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﻃﺒﻊ ﺁﻥ ﺭﻓﺎﻩ ﻧﺴﺒﻲ ﺟﻮﺍﻣﻊ ﺭﺍ ﺗﺤﺖ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪ ،‬ﻟﺬﺍ ﮔﺮﭼﻪ ﺳﻮﺍﻝ ﻣﺰﺑﻮﺭ‬
‫ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻣﺠﺰﺍ ﻣﻄﺮﺡ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ ،‬ﺍﻣﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﻧﺰﺩﻳﻜﻲ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﺩﺍﻧﺎﻥ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﭘﺎﺳﺨﮕﻮﺋﻲ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻪ ﺳﻮﺍﻝ ﻓﻮﻕ‪ ،‬ﺳﻪ ﻭﻇﻴﻔﻪ ﺍﺻﻠﻲ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮﺡ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺑﺮ ﻋﻬﺪﻩ‬
‫ﺩﺍﺭﻧﺪ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻒ( ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻩﮔﻴﺮﻱ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎﻱ ﻛﻼﻥ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ )ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻩﮔﻴﺮﻱ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺍﺳﺘﺎﻧﺪﺍﺭﺩ ﺯﻧﺪﮔﻲ ‪،‬‬
‫ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﺯﻧﺪﮔﻲ ﻭ ﻧﻮﺳﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻛﻪ ﻋﻤﺪﺗﺎﹰ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎﻳﻲ ﻣﺎﻧﻨﺪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‪ ،‬ﺗﻮﺭﻡ ‪،‬‬
‫ﺍﺷﺘﻐﺎﻝ ﻭ ﻏﻴﺮﻩ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ(‪.‬‬
‫ﺏ( ﻧﺤﻮﻩ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎﻱ ﻛﻼﻥ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ )ﻣﺪﻝﺳﺎﺯﻱ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ(‬

‫!‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺝ( ﻧﺤﻮﻩ ﺍﺛﺮﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺑﺮ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﻭ ﺍﺗﺨﺎﺫ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺘﻬﺎﻱ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ )ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ(‬

‫ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻛﻠﻲ‪ ،‬ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﻪ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲﻫﺎ ﻭ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ ﺩﺭ ﭼﻬﺎﺭﭼﻮﺏ ﺳﻪ ﻭﻇﻴﻔﻪ ﻓﻮﻕ‬
‫ﺧﻼﺻﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﻣﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﻪ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪ (١‬ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﻛﺎﺭﺷﻨﺎﺳﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻣﻲ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﺩﻭ ﺑﺨﺶ ﺍﺻﻠﻲ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺑﺨﺶ ﺍﻭﻝ‪،‬‬
‫ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻩﮔﻴﺮﻱ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺩﺭ ﭼﻬﺎﺭﭼﻮﺏ ﻣﺒﺤﺚ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺪﺍﺭﻱ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺍﺭﺍﻳﻪ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺑﺨﺶ ﺩﻭﻡ‪ ،‬ﺑﺤﺚ ﺗﺌﻮﺭﻱ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ ﻭ ﻧﺤﻮﻩ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎﻱ ﻛﻼﻥ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬
‫ﻫﻤﺎﻧﻨﺪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‪ ،‬ﺗﻮﺭﻡ‪ ،‬ﺍﺷﺘﻐﺎﻝ ﻭ ﻏﻴﺮﻩ ﻫﻤﺮﺍﻩ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺒﺤﺚ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ‬
‫ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫"‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪(F.$ L$R<0 N<)L:"#S) N0"123) =>/ N"+7&O2$ N7&PKD)LM) :G() IJ:‬‬

‫ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﺯ ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺧﺘﻦ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻩﮔﻴﺮﻱ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎﻱ ﻛﻼﻥ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺍﻭﻟﻴﻦ ﻭﻇﻴﻔﻪ‬
‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﺩﺍﻧﺎﻥ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ ،‬ﻧﺨﺴﺖ ﻻﺯﻡ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺗﺎ ﺗﺼﻮﻳﺮﻱ ﻛﻠﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮﺩ ﻳﻚ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻭ ﺑﺎﺯﻳﮕﺮﺍﻥ‬
‫ﺁﻥ ﺍﺭﺍﻳﻪ ﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﺼﻮﻳﺮ ﺩﺭ ﭼﺎﺭﭼﻮﺏ ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥ ﻣﺪﻭﺭ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﺭﺍﺋﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪N0"123) N"+@&'"8T <(L$ ="67U (1-1‬‬

‫ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮﺩ ﻫﺮ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﺑﺮﺁﻳﻨﺪﻱ ﺍﺯ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖ ﺍﺟﺰﺍﺀ )ﺑﺎﺯﻳﮕﺮﺍﻥ( ﺁﻥ ﻭ ﻧﺤﻮﻩ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺍﺯ‬
‫ﻳﻜﺪﻳﮕﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﺎﺯﻳﮕﺮﺍﻥ ﻫﺮ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺭﺍ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ ﭼﻬﺎﺭ ﮔﺮﻭﻩ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﻧﻤﻮﺩ‪:‬‬
‫‪١‬‬
‫‪(١‬ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭﻫﺎ‬
‫‪٢‬‬
‫‪ (٢‬ﺑﻨﮕﺎﻫﻬﺎ‬
‫‪٣‬‬
‫‪ (٣‬ﺩﻭﻟﺖ‬
‫‪٤‬‬
‫‪ (٤‬ﺑﻘﻴﻪ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ‬
‫ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (١-١‬ﺳﺎﺩﻩﺗﺮﻳﻦ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥ ﻣﺪﻭﺭ ﺭﺍ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪ .‬ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥ ﻣﺪﻭﺭ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻭ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‪،‬‬
‫ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﻫﻨﺪﻩ ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﺯ ﺑﻨﮕﺎﻩﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻮﻱ‬
‫ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭﻫﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻮﻱ ﺑﻨﮕﺎﻩﻫﺎ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫‪-Households‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪- Firms‬‬
‫‪3‬‬
‫‪- Government‬‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫‪– Rest of the world‬‬

‫‪#‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪("&M0 %&;: ( X>Y2A) ( N<)ZP%6"$7A W@'(0 0HU( =(L:) N0"123) N"+@&'"8T <(L$ ="67U :(1-1) <)0HVM‬‬

‫ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻛﺎﻻ ﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ‬

‫ﺑﻨﮕﺎﻫﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭﻫﺎ‬

‫ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‬

‫ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥ ﻓﻮﻕ‪ ،‬ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥ ﭘﻮﻟﻲ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﻭ ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺧﺘﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺭﺍ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪ .‬ﻛﻞ‬
‫ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺘﻬﺎﻱ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻫﺮ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ ﺭﺍ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻭ ﻗﺴﻤﺖ ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﻛﺮﺩ‪ :‬ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻭ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ‪ ،‬ﻋﺎﻣﻠﻴﻦ ﻳﺎ ﻛﺎﺭﮔﺮﺍﻥ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺭﺍ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻭ ﺩﺳﺘﻪﻱ ﻛﻠﻲ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﮔﺎﻥ ﻭ‬
‫ﻣﺼﺮﻑﻛﻨﻨﺪﮔﺎﻥ ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﻧﻤﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‪ ،‬ﻛﻮﭼﻜﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﻩ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻨﮕﺎﻩ ﻭ‬
‫ﻛﻮﭼﻜﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻣﺼﺮﻑﻛﻨﻨﺪﻩ ﺭﺍ ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﮔﻮﻳﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭﻫﺎ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺑﺪﺳﺖ ﺁﻭﺭﺩﻥ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪﻱ‬
‫ﻛﻪ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺭﺍ ﻗﺎﺩﺭ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺩﺭ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ ﻛﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻌﻲ‬
‫ﺩﺍﺭﻧﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺯ ﻗﺒﻞ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﺭﺍ ﻛﺴﺐ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ‪ ،‬ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻱ ﻛﺎﺭ‬
‫ﻓﻴﺰﻳﻜﻲ ﻭ ﻓﻜﺮﻱ ﻭ ﺩﺍﺭﺍﺋﻴﻬﺎ )ﺑﻪ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺯﻣﻴﻦ‪ ،‬ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﻭ ﻏﻴﺮﻩ( ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻑ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ‪ ،‬ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺁﻥ‬
‫ﻛﻪ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺩﺭ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻭﺳﻴﻠﻪﻱ ﺑﻨﮕﺎﻫﻬﺎ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺷﻮﻧﺪ ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ‬
‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻫﻤﺎﻥ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻌﻲ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭﻫﺎﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺳﺎﺯﻣﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺩﻫﻨﺪﮔﺎﻥ ﻳﺎ ﻣﺪﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺭﺍ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﺨﺸﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻱ ﻛﺎﺭ ﻣﺎﻫﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺁﻭﺭﺩﻩ ﻛﻪ ﻣﺎﻧﻨﺪ‬
‫ﺑﻘﻴﻪﻱ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻱ ﻛﺎﺭ ﺧﺪﻣﺖ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺳﺎﺯﻣﺎﻧﺪﻫﻲ ﻭ ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﺭﺍﺋﻪ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﻨﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪$‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺑﺎﻻﺧﺮﻩ ﺑﻨﮕﺎﻫﻬﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻑ ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭﻫﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺧﺖﻫﺎﻳﻲ ﺗﺤﺖ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﺩﺳﺘﻤﺰﺩ ‪ ،‬ﺍﺟﺎﺭﻩ‪ ،‬ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ﻭ ﺳﻮﺩ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﻨﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻃﺒﻖ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ ،(١-١‬ﻫﻤﻮﺍﺭﻩ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺩﺭ ﭼﻬﺎﺭﭼﻮﺏ ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥ ﻣﺪﻭﺭ ﻛﻞ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ‬
‫ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭﻫﺎ ﺑﺎ ﻛﻞ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪﻫﺎ ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺧﺘﻲ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﺑﻨﮕﺎﻩﻫﺎﻱ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪﻱ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮﻱ ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮ‬
‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺍﺳﺖ؛ ﻳﻌﻨﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻣﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪﻱ ﻣﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻣﻠﻲ‬
‫ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (١-٢‬ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥ ﻣﺪﻭﺭﻱ ﺭﺍ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ ﺍﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﻭ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ‬
‫ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪.(LM<)LM 0HU( "&M0 %&;: ( @'(0 WN<)ZP%6"$7A ( D)LM)[\ ="]$) ":) N0"123) N"+@&'"8T <(L$ ="67U (1-2)<)0HVM‬‬

‫ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻛﺎﻻ ﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ‬

‫ﺑﻨﮕﺎﻫﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭﻫﺎ‬

‫ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺘﻲ ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﺑﻪ ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥ ﻣﺪﻭﺭ ﺍﺿﺎﻓﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﻣﺴﻴﺮ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﻱ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥ‬
‫ﻭﺟﻮﻩ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻑ ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭﻫﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺑﻪ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻣﻲﺁﻳﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﺪﻳﻦ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ‬
‫ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭﻫﺎ ﺍﺯ ﻭﺟﻮﻩ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻭ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﻨﺪ‪ :‬ﻳﻜﻲ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ ﺗﺤﺖ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ‬
‫ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ‪ 1‬ﻭ ﺩﻳﮕﺮﻱ ﻏﻴﺮﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ ﺑﺎ ﻧﺎﻡ ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ‪ .‬ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻫﺎ‪ ٢‬ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭﻫﺎﻱ‬

‫‪1-Consumption‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪-Saving‬‬

‫‪%‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﺑﻪ ﺑﻨﮕﺎﻩﻫﺎ ﻣﻨﺘﻘﻞ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻭ ﺳﭙﺲ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺩﻭﺑﺎﺭﻩ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥ‬
‫ﻣﺪﻭﺭ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﻧﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥ ﻣﺪﻭﺭ‪ ،‬ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥﻫﺎﻱ ﻓﻴﺰﻳﻜﻲ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺣﺬﻑ ﺷﺪﻩﺍﻧﺪ ﻭ ﻓﻘﻂ ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻧﻬﺎﻱ‬
‫ﭘﻮﻟﻲ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺷﺪﻩﺍﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﻋﻤﻞ ﻓﻘﻂ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﺳﺎﺩﻩ ﻛﺮﺩﻥ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺣﺎﻝ‬
‫ﺍﺻﻄﻼﺣﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﺿﺎﻓﻪ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (١-٢‬ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮﺡ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﻧﺪ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ‪ :‬ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺍﺯ ﺑﺨﺸﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭﻫﺎ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺧﺮﻳﺪ ﻛﺎﻻ ﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ‬
‫ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻧﻤﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ‪ ١:‬ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﻪ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﻭ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩﻱ ﺍﻧﺒﺎﺭﻫﺎ ‪ .‬ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﺍﺯ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ‪ ،‬ﺧﺮﻳﺪ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻱ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﺍﻱ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﺳﺖ‬
‫ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻭﺳﻴﻠﻪ ﺑﻨﮕﺎﻫﻬﺎ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ؛ ﻣﺎﻧﻨﺪ ﻣﺎﺷﻴﻦﻫﺎﻱ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺷﺪﻩ‪ ،‬ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻤﺎﻥﻫﺎﻱ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻪ‬
‫ﺷﺪﻩ ﻭ ﻭﺳﺎﻳﻞ ﻭ ﺗﺠﻬﻴﺰﺍﺕ ﺍﺩﺍﺭﻱ‪ .‬ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﺍﺯ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩﻱ ﺍﻧﺒﺎﺭ‬
‫ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺍﺯ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩﻱ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻱ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻭ ﻣﻮﺍﺩ ﺧﺎﻣﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻨﮕﺎﻫﻬﺎ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻧﺒﺎﺭﻫﺎﻳﺸﺎﻥ ﺫﺧﻴﺮﻩ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﮔﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩﻳﻬﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺣﺎﻝ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩﻱ ﺍﻧﺒﺎﺭ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻜﺲ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﻭﺟﻮﻫﻲ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺻﺮﻑ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ‪ :‬ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻧﺠﺎ ﺍﻓﺮﺍﺩﻱ ﻛﻪ ﻭﺟﻮﻩ ﻣﺎﺯﺍﺩ ﺩﺍﺭﻧﺪ ﻭﺟﻮﻩ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﺍﻓﺮﺍﺩﻱ ﻛﻪ ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﺑﻪ ﻭﺟﻮﻩ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﺩﺍﺭﻧﺪ‪ ،‬ﻣﻨﺘﻘﻞ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﻨﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ‪ ،‬ﻛﻞ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‪ ،‬ﺑﻪ ﺩﻭ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻭ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺖ‪:‬‬
‫)‪ (I‬ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ‪ (C)+‬ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭﻫﺎ = ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻣﻠﻲ‬
‫ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﻛﻞ ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻫﺎﻳﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺯ ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭﻫﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻮﻱ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﺳﺮﺍﺯﻳﺮ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ‬
‫ﺍﺻﻄﻼﺣﺎﹰ »ﺭﻳﺰﺵ«‪ ٢‬ﻭ ﻭﺟﻮﻫﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﺯ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻮﻱ ﺑﻨﮕﺎﻩﻫﺎ‬
‫ﺑﺎﺯ ﻣﻲﮔﺮﺩﺩ‪» ،‬ﺗﺰﺭﻳﻖ«‪ ٣‬ﻣﻲﻧﺎﻣﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﺠﺎﺋﻴﻜﻪ ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥ ﻣﺪﻭﺭ ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺩﺭ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ‬

‫‪1- Investment‬‬
‫‪2- Leakage‬‬
‫‪3- Injection‬‬

‫&‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ ،‬ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ ﻛﻞ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺑﺎ ﻛﻞ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻣﺮ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮﻱ ﻛﻞ‬
‫ﺭﻳﺰﺵ )ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ( ﺑﺎ ﻛﻞ ﺗﺰﺭﻳﻖ ﻭ )ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ( ﻣﻲ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ‪:‬‬
‫‪S‬‬ ‫‪I‬‬ ‫ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﺭﻳﺰﺵ ﻳﺎ‬ ‫ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﺗﺰﺭﻳﻖ‬
‫ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٣‬ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥ ﻣﺪﻭﺭ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺎ ﻓﺮﺿﻲ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪(@'(0 0HU( ( N<)ZP%6"$7A ( D)LM)[\ ="]$) ":) N0"123) N"+@&'"8T <(L$ ="67U (3) <)0HVM‬‬

‫ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻛﺎﻻ ﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ‬

‫ﺩﻭﻟﺖ‬
‫ﺑﻨﮕﺎﻫﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭﻫﺎ‬

‫ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ‬

‫ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‬

‫ﻫﻤﺎﻥﻃﻮﺭ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (١-٣‬ﻣﻼﺣﻈﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻪ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﻪ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ‬

‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻣﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﻭﻟﻴﻦ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺑﻪ ﻭﺳﻴﻠﻪﻱ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕﻫﺎ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻥ‬
‫ﺗﻔﺎﺿﻞ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺗﻬﺎ ﺩﺭﻳﺎﻓﺘﻲ ﺍﺯ ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺧﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻟﻲ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ )ﻳﺎﺭﺍﻧﻪ ﻭ ﻏﻴﺮﻩ(ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﻭﻣﻴﻦ‬
‫ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺑﻪ ﻭﺳﻴﻠﻪﻱ ﺧﺮﻳﺪﻫﺎﻱ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺍﻳﺠﺎﺩ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻮﻱ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﻭ‬
‫ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺑﺎﻻﺧﺮﻩ ﺳﻮﻣﻴﻦ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ‪ ،‬ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﻭ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﺳﺖ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﮔﺮ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺑﻴﺶ ﺍﺯ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺗﻬﺎﻱ ﺩﺭﻳﺎﻓﺘﻲ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎ ﻛﺴﺮ ﺑﻮﺩﺟﻪ ﺭﻭﺑﺮﻭ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻭ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺍﺯ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﻗﺮﺽ ﻛﻨﺪ ﻭ ﺍﮔﺮ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕﻫﺎ ﺑﻴﺶ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﺩﻭﻟﺖ‬
‫ﺑﺎ ﻣﺎﺯﺍﺩ ﺑﻮﺩﺟﻪ ﺭﻭﺑﺮﻭ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻭ ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥ ﻭﺟﻮﻩ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻑ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫'‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ ﻛﻞ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻪ ﺟﺰﺀ ﺍﺻﻠﻲ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮﺡ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺗﺸﻜﻴﻞ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪:‬‬
‫ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ‪ + ١‬ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺡ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ‪ +‬ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ = ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻣﻠﻲ‬
‫ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﻪ ﺭﻳﺰﺵﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺿﺎﻓﻪ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕﻫﺎ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ ﺑﺎ‬
‫ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﺗﺰﺭﻳﻖﻫﺎ )ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺿﺎﻓﻪ ﺩﻭﻟﺘﻲ( ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺗﻲ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ؛‬
‫‪S+T=I+G‬‬
‫ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ ،(١-٤‬ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥ ﻣﺪﻭﺭ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺎ ﺑﺨﺶ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻲ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ )ﺑﻘﻴﻪ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ( ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪(FU<"? IJ: ( @'(0 WD)LM)[\ ( N<)ZP%6"$7A ="]$) ":) 0"123) N"+@&'"8T <(L$ ="67U :(4) <)0HVM‬‬

‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻫﺎﻱ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻲ‬
‫ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻛﺎﻻ ﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ‬

‫ﺩﻭﻟﺖ‬

‫ﺑﻨﮕﺎﻫﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭﻫﺎ‬

‫ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ‬

‫ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ‪ ،‬ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﻭ ﺑﻘﻴﻪﻱ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻪ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺑﺎ ﻳﻜﺪﻳﮕﺮ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺩﺍﺭﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻭﻟﻴﻦ‬
‫ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺑﻪ ﻭﺳﻴﻠﻪ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﺩﻭﻣﻴﻦ ﻭﺳﻴﻠﻪ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻃﻲ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﺑﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻫﺎﻱ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻲ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻭﺟﻮﻩ ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺧﺘﻲ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻴﺎﻥ ﺧﺮﻳﺪﺍﺭ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﺯ‬
‫ﺩﺍﺧﻞ‪ ،‬ﺑﻪ ﺳﻮﻱ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺭﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﮔﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻩﻱ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﻭ‬
‫ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺑﻪ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺻﺎﺩﺭ ﻧﺸﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﻗﺴﻤﺘﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺑﺎ ﺗﺄﻣﻴﻦ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﺯ‬
‫ﺧﺎﺭﺝ ﺧﺮﻳﺪﺍﺭﻱ ﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﺣﺎﻟﺘﻲ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺳﻮﻣﻲ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﻭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻫﺎﻱ‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫‪– Government Expenditures‬‬

‫(‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻲ ﺍﻳﺠﺎﺩ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ‪ ،‬ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥ ﻭﺟﻮﻩ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺽ ﺍﺯ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻴﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺯ ﺑﺨﺶ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻲ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﺟﺎﺭﻱ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ ﻭ ﺑﺮﻋﻜﺲ‪.‬‬
‫ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﻭﺟﻮﻩ ﺑﻪ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ ﻭ ﻭﺭﻭﺩ ﺁﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻕ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﻲ ﻫﻤﺎﻧﻨﺪ ﺧﺮﻳﺪ ﻭ ﻓﺮﻭﺵ‬
‫ﺳﻬﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﺍﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺑﻬﺎﺩﺍﺭ‪ ،‬ﺍﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﻣﺸﺎﺭﻛﺖ‪ ،‬ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ‪ ،‬ﺍﻋﻄﺎﻱ ﻭﺍﻡ ﻭ ﻏﻴﺮﻩ ﻣﻴﺴﺮ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺣﺎﻟﺖ‪ ،‬ﻛﻞ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺍﺯ ﭼﻬﺎﺭ ﺟﺰﺀ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮﺡ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺗﺸﻜﻴﻞ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪:‬‬
‫ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ‪ +‬ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ‪ +‬ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺩﻭﻟﺘﻲ ‪ +‬ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ = ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻣﻠﻲ‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻛﻞ ﺭﻳﺰﺵ )ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕﻫﺎ ﻭ ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻫﺎ( ﺑﺎ ﻛﻞ‬
‫ﺗﺰﺭﻳﻖﻫﺎ )ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺩﻭﻟﺘﻲ ﻭ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ( ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮ ﻣﻲﮔﺮﺩﺩ‪ .‬ﻳﻌﻨﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪S T‬‬ ‫‪M !I‬‬ ‫‪G‬‬ ‫‪X‬‬

‫ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﺑﺎ ﺭﻭﺷﻦ ﺷﺪﻥ ﻧﺤﻮﻩ ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮﺩ ﻳﻚ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‪ ،‬ﺍﺟﺰﺍﺀ ﺁﻥ ﻭ ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻤﻲ ﻫﻤﭽﻮﻥ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ‪،‬‬
‫ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻛﻞ ﻭ ﻏﻴﺮﻩ‪ ،‬ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺪﺍﺭﻱ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺤﺚ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪!" #"$%& '%(#)*+, (1-2‬‬

‫ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻩﮔﻴﺮﻱ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎﻱ ﻛﻼﻥ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻳﻚ ﺑﺤﺚ ﻛﺎﻣﻼﹰ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺪﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻟﺰﺍﻣﹰﺎ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮﻱﻫﺎﻱ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻣﻠﻲ ! ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻣﻠﻲ ! ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺪﺍﺭﻱ ﺩﺭ ﺯﻣﻴﻨﻪﻫﺎﻳﻲ ﻧﻈﻴﺮ ﺑﻮﺩﺟﻪﺑﻨﺪﻱ‪ ،‬ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪﻫﺎ ﻭ‬
‫ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎ ﻳﻚ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‪ ،‬ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮﺩ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻳﻚ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ‪ ،‬ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﺭﻳﺰﻱ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ‬
‫ﻭﻣﻘﺎﻳﺴﻪ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺭﻓﺎﻩ ﺑﻴﻦ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﺣﺎﺋﺰ ﺍﻫﻤﻴﺖ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻣﻌﻤﻮﻻﹰ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺪﺍﺭﻱ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻛﻞ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺁﻥ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ‪ ١‬ﻧﻴﺰ ﮔﻔﺘﻪ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺷﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﻣﻬﻤﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﻗﻠﻢ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺣﺴﺎﺏﻫﺎ ﻣﺤﺴﻮﺏ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫)‪ :(GNP‬ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺍﺯ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺭﻳﺎﻟﻲ ﺳﺎﻟﻴﺎﻧﻪﻱ ﺗﻤﺎﻡ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﻭ‬ ‫‪!" -.*/*0 #1.23 45673‬‬

‫ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﻲ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺑﻪ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻬﺎﻱ ﺟﺎﺭﻱ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻣﻠﻲ‪.‬‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺳﻪ ﻧﻜﺘﻪ ﻣﻬﻢ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺭﻧﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺗﻨﺪ ﺍﺯ‪:‬‬
‫‪ .١‬ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺭﻳﺎﻟﻲ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ‪:‬‬

‫‪1- Gross National Product‬‬

‫!‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺑﻪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺁﻧﻜﻪ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺟﻨﺲ ﻭ ﻧﻮﻉ ﻣﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﻟﺬﺍ ﺟﻤﻊ ﺯﺩﻥ ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ﻓﻴﺰﻳﻜﻲ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ‪ ،‬ﻫﻤﺎﻧﻨﺪ ﺟﻤﻊ ﺯﺩﻥ ﺍﺗﻮﻣﺒﻴﻞ ﺑﺎ ﺳﻴﺐ ﻣﻘﺪﻭﺭ‬
‫ﻧﻤﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻣﻘﺎﻳﺴﻪ ﻭ ﺟﻤﻊ ﺯﺩﻥ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﻭ ﺭﺳﻴﺪﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﻳﺪ‬
‫ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﭘﻮﻟﻲ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﻟﺤﺎﻅ ﺷﻮﻧﺪ‪.‬‬
‫‪ .٢‬ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺗﻤﺎﻡ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ‪ ،‬ﺗﻤﺎﻣﻲ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﻲ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺑﻪ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎﻱ‬
‫ﺟﺎﺭﻱ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﻮﻧﺪ ﻭ ﻫﻴﭻ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺘﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻗﻠﻢ ﻧﻴﺎﻓﺘﺪ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺘﻲ‬
‫ﺩﻭﺑﺎﺭ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﻟﺤﺎﻅ ﺑﺎﻳﺴﺘﻲ ﺳﻌﻲ ﺷﻮﺩ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺗﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﮔﺎﻥ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﻲ ﻓﺮﻭﺧﺘﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﮔﺎﻥ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﻲ‪،‬‬
‫ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺷﺨﺼﻲ ﻳﺎ ﺧﺮﻳﺪﻫﺎﻱ ﺩﻭﻟﺘﻲ ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﻭ‬
‫ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻱ ﻭﺍﺳﻄﻪﺍﻱ‪ ،‬ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻳﻲ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﻛﻪ‬
‫ﻓﻘﻂ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻧﻬﺎﺩﻩ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺳﺎﻳﺮ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﻳﺎ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺑﻪ ﻛﺎﺭ ﻣﻲﺭﻭﻧﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻣﺎ ﻧﻜﺘﻪ ﺣﺎﺋﺰ ﺍﻫﻤﻴﺖ ﺁﻥ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺍﺟﺘﻨﺎﺏ ﺍﺯ ﺍﺣﺘﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻒ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ‬
‫ﻣﻠﻲ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻱ ﻭﺍﺳﻄﻪﺍﻱ ﻧﺒﺎﻳﺪ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺑﮕﻴﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺭﻭﺷﻦ ﺷﺪﻥ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻜﺘﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ‬
‫ﺯﻳﺮ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ‪ :‬ﻓﺮﺽ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﻲ ﻳﻚ ﻗﺮﺹ ﻧﺎﻥ ‪ ٥٠٠‬ﺭﻳﺎﻝ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺍﻓﺰﻭﺩﻩ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﭘﺨﺖ‪ :‬ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺍﻓﺰﻭﺩﻩ‪ = ٢٠٠‬ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺁﺭﺩ‪ – ٣٠٠‬ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﻳﻚ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻧﺎﻥ ‪ ٥٠٠‬ﺭﻳﺎﻝ‬
‫‪ (١٧٥) = ١٢٥‬ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﮔﻨﺪﻡ – )‪ ٣٠٠‬ﺭﻳﺎﻝ( ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺁﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺍﻓﺰﻭﺩﻩ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﺁﺳﻴﺎﺏ‪:‬‬

‫‪ (١٠٠) = ٧٥‬ﻛﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺑﺬﺭ ﺍﻭﻟﻴﻪ – )‪ ( ١٧٥‬ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﮔﻨﺪﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺍﻓﺰﻭﺩﻩ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﻛﺸﺎﻭﺭﺯﻱ‪:‬‬

‫‪١٠٠‬‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺍﻓﺰﻭﺩﻩ ﻣﺮﺍﺣﻞ ﻗﺒﻞ‬

‫‪٥٠٠‬‬ ‫ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﺭﺯﺵﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻓﺰﻭﺩﻩﻫﺎ‬

‫ﻫﻤﺎﻧﮕﻮﻧﻪ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻼﺣﻈﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻱ ﻭﺍﺳﻄﻪﺍﻱ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﻧﺎﻥ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﻫﺮ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﺪ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻧﺎﻥ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ‪( ١٠٠ + ١٧٥ + ٣٠٠ + ٥٠٠ ) =١٠٧٥‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺑﺪﺳﺖ ﻣﻲﺁﻣﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺧﻄﺎ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﺠﺎﺋﻲ ﻧﺎﺷﻲ ﻣﻲﺷﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻱ ﻭﺍﺳﻄﻪﺍﻱ ﭼﻨﺪﻳﻦ ﻣﺮﺗﺒﻪ‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﻫﺮ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﻟﺤﺎﻅ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺍﺟﺘﻨﺎﺏ ﺍﺯ ﺍﺣﺘﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻒ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ‪،‬‬
‫ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻱ ﻭﺍﺳﻄﻪﺍﻱ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺭﻭﺵ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺍﻓﺰﻭﺩﻩ ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ‬
‫ﻧﻬﺎﻳﻲ ﻛﺎﻻ ﺣﺬﻑ ﻣﻲ ﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺍﻓﺰﻭﺩﻩ ﻫﺮ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﻪ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪:‬‬
‫)ﻣﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﻭﻟﻴﻪ ﻭ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻱ ﻭﺍﺳﻄﻪﺍﻱ – ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﻲ ﻛﺎﻻ ( = ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺍﻓﺰﻭﺩﻩ‬

‫‪ .٣‬ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭﻱ‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ ﻣﻌﻤﻮﻻﹰ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻳﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻟﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﻧﺪ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭﻱ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫";*‪ : !" -.*/*0 #1.23 89:‬ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺳﻪ ﺭﻭﺵ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮﺡ ﺯﻳﺮ‬

‫ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪:‬‬
‫‪١‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻒ( ﺭﻭﺵ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪﻱ )ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺍﻓﺰﻭﺩﻩ(‬
‫‪٢‬‬
‫ﺏ( ﺭﻭﺵ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﺍﻱ‬
‫‪٣‬‬
‫ﺝ( ﺭﻭﺵ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪﻱ‬
‫ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﺠﺎﻳﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥ ﻣﺪﻭﺭ‪ ،‬ﻛﻞ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻭ ﻛﻞ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﻟﺬﺍ ﺳﻪ ﺭﻭﺵ‬
‫ﻓﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﺰﺍﻣﺎﹰ ﺑﻪ ﻳﻚ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ ﻫﺮ ﻳﻚ ﺍﺯ ﺭﻭﺵﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺰﺑﻮﺭ ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺢ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫(‪ :(A&=BC( <>%() '#1.23 <>%( ?56@ >( GNP 89:*;" <=% (4.‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﻭﺵ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‬
‫ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺍﻓﺰﻭﺩﻩ ﺑﺨﺶﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺩﺭ ﻳﻚ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ‬
‫ﻣﺸﺨﺺ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﮔﺮ ‪ Vi‬ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺍﻓﺰﻭﺩﻩ ﺑﺨﺶ ‪i‬ﻡ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﻓﺮﺽ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ‪ n‬ﺑﺨﺶ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‪ ،‬ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ‬
‫ﻣﻠﻲ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺍﺯ‪:‬‬

‫‪1- Value added approach‬‬

‫‪2- Expenditure Approach‬‬
‫‪3- Income Approach‬‬

‫"‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪n‬‬

‫= ‪GNP‬‬ ‫‪"V‬‬
‫‪i #1‬‬
‫‪i‬‬

‫ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺍﺯ ﺩﻭ ﺑﺨﺶ ﻧﻔﺖ ﻭ ﻏﻴﺮ ﻧﻔﺖ ﺗﺸﻜﻴﻞ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ ،‬ﺑﺨﺶ ﻏﻴﺮ‬
‫ﻧﻔﺘﻲ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻱ ﺳﻪ ﺑﺨﺶ ﻛﻠﻲ ﺑﻮﺩﻩ ﻛﻪ ﻫﺮ ﻳﻚ ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻱ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺑﺨﺶﻫﺎﻳﻲ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮﺡ ﺯﻳﺮ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ‪:‬‬
‫‪ .١‬ﺯﺭﺍﻋﺖ‬
‫‪ .١‬ﺑﺨﺶ ﻛﺸﺎﻭﺭﺯﻱ‬ ‫‪ .٢‬ﺟﻨﮕﻠﺪﺍﺭﻱ‬
‫‪ .٣‬ﻣﺎﻫﻴﮕﻴﺮﻱ‬
‫‪ .٤‬ﺩﺍﻣﺪﺍﺭﻱ‬
‫‪ .٢‬ﺑﺨﺶ ﺻﻨﺎﻳﻊ ﻭ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻥ )ﻧﺴﺎﺟﻲ ‪ ،‬ﭘﺘﺮﻭﺷﻴﻤﻲ ‪ ،‬ﻟﻮﺍﺯﻡ ﺧﺎﻧﮕﻲ ﻭ ﺧﻮﺩﺭﻭ ﺳﺎﺯﻱ(‬
‫‪ .٣‬ﺑﺨﺶ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ‪) :‬ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﻋﻤﻮﻣﻲ‪ ،‬ﻣﻮﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻱ ﻭ ﺑﺎﻧﻜﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﺣﻤﻞ ﻭ ﻧﻘﻞ‪ ،‬ﻫﺘﻞﺩﺍﺭﻱ ﻭ ﻏﻴﺮﻩ(‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺍﺯ ﺭﻭﺵ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺍﻓﺰﻭﺩﻩ ﺑﺨﺶﻫﺎﻱ ﻓﻮﻕﺍﻟﺬﻛﺮ ﺑﺎ‬
‫ﻳﻜﺪﻳﮕﺮ ﺟﻤﻊ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﻧﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺩﻭ ﻧﻜﺘﻪ ﺣﺎﺋﺰ ﺍﻫﻤﻴﺖ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪:‬‬

‫(‪ : )*+D,( &B"%*E (4.‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻮﻉ ﻛﺎﺭﻣﺰﺩ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻁ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺨﺶ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺑﺨﺶ »‪F*"#/‬‬

‫= ‪ « .2G‬ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﺎﻧﻜﻬﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﺍﺭﺍﺋﻪ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻁ ﺑﻪ ﺳﭙﺮﺩﻩﻫﺎﻱ‬ ‫"‪.*" '*H8+:2‬‬

‫ﺩﻳﺪﺍﺭﻱ )ﺟﺎﺭﻱ( ﻛﺎﺭﻣﺰﺩﻱ ﺩﺭﻳﺎﻓﺖ ﻧﻤﻲﻛﻨﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﻋﻮﺽ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺤﻞ ﻭﺍﻡ ﺩﺍﺩﻥ ﺳﭙﺮﺩﻩﻫﺎﻱ ﺟﺎﺭﻱ‬

‫ﻭ ﺩﻳﺪﺍﺭﻱ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪﻱ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ﺩﺭﻳﺎﻓﺖ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﻨﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺁﻥ »‪ « )*+D,( &B"%*E‬ﻣﻲﮔﻮﻳﻨﺪ‪.‬‬

‫ﺑﻪ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺍﺭﺍﺋﻪ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻁ ﺑﻪ ﭼﻚ ﺍﺯ ﻗﺒﻴﻞ ﻧﻘﺪ ﻛﺮﺩﻥ ﭼﻚ ﻭ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻃﻪ‬
‫ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺳﻴﺴﺘﻢ ﺑﺎﻧﻜﻲ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎﻳﻲ ﺭﺍ ﺗﺤﻤﻴﻞ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎﻧﻚﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻮﻉ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎ ﺍﺯ‬
‫ﻣﺸﺘﺮﻳﺎﻥ ﺧﻮﺩ ﻭﺟﻬﻲ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭﻳﺎﻓﺖ ﻧﻤﻲﻛﻨﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﺑﺎ ﺩﺍﺩﻥ ﻭﺍﻡ ﻭ ﺗﺴﻬﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺤﻞ‬
‫ﺳﭙﺮﺩﻩﻫﺎﻱ ﺟﺎﺭﻱ ﻣﺮﺩﻡ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪﻱ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ﺩﺭﻳﺎﻓﺖ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﮔﻔﺘﻪ ﺷﺪﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻛﺎﺭﻣﺰﺩ ﺍﺣﺘﺴﺎﺑﻲ ﻧﺎﻡ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪#‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪.2G = .*" F*+:2" A&=BC( <>%( = F*"#/ 85(%( I)*J" %& DC*5%& &B"%*E+ )*+D,( &B"%*E‬‬
‫ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﺠﺎﺋﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻛﺎﺭﻣﺰﺩ ﺍﺣﺘﺴﺎﺑﻲ ﺩﺭ ﺭﻭﺵ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺍﻓﺰﻭﺩﻩ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ‪ GNP‬ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ‬
‫ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ؛ ﺍﻣﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺭﻭﺵ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﺍﻱ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺁﻧﻜﻪ ﺻﺎﺣﺒﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺣﺴﺎﺑﻬﺎ ﻭﺟﻬﻲ ﺭﺍ )ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ( ﺑﺎﺑﺖ ﻛﺎﺭﻣﺰﺩ ﺍﺣﺘﺴﺎﺑﻲ ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺧﺖ ﻧﻜﺮﺩﻩﺍﻧﺪ ﺟﺰﺀ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎ ﻣﺤﺴﻮﺏ‬
‫ﻧﻤﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺍﻓﺰﻭﺩﻩ ﻛﺎﺭﻣﺰﺩ ﻣﺰﺑﻮﺭ‬
‫ﻛﺴﺮ ﻣﻲﮔﺮﺩﺩ‪.‬‬

‫ﺏ( (‪ :F*K*LMD:‬ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻛﻠﻲ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺗﻲ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﻧﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻟﻪ ﺷﺪﻩﺍﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﺧﺎﻧﻢ ﺧﺎﻧﻪﺩﺍﺭﻱ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﻏﺬﺍ ﺩﺭﺳﺖ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ ﻭ ﻳﺎ‬
‫ﺗﺮﺷﻲ ﻣﻲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﺩ ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﻛﻮﺩﻙ ﻧﮕﻪﺩﺍﺭﻱ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺍﻓﺰﻭﺩﻩ ﺍﻳﺠﺎﺩ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺎﺩﺭ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ ﻟﺤﺎﻅ ﻧﻤﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻣﺎ ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﻣﺎﺩﺭ ﻏﺬﺍﻱ ﺁﻣﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺭﺳﺘﻮﺭﺍﻥ ﺗﻬﻴﻪ‬
‫ﻧﻤﺎﻳﺪ ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﻛﻮﺩﻙ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﻛﻮﺩﻛﺴﺘﺎﻥ ﻧﮕﻪﺩﺍﺭﻱ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﺪ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺗﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻛﻮﺩﻛﺴﺘﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺑﻪ ﻭﻱ ﺍﺭﺍﻳﻪ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﺍﺯ ﺭﺳﺘﻮﺭﺍﻥ ﺗﻬﻴﻪ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ ﻟﺤﺎﻅ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻣﺎ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﺧﺼﻮﺹ ﺩﻭ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻨﺎﺀ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪:‬‬
‫‪.#02O P0 89:*;" GNP %& *"( #02O " 8.&*9" %(>*) %& 8E 3*"#/ = *HN*E (1‬‬
‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﮔﺮﻭﻩ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺗﻨﺪ ﺍﺯ‪:‬‬
‫‪ .١‬ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻻﺕ ﺩﺳﺘﻪ ﺩﻭﻡ )ﻛﻬﻨﻪ(‪ :‬ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﺠﺎﺋﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻮﻉ ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻻﺕ ﻗﺒﻼﹰ ﻳﻜﺒﺎﺭ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪،‬‬
‫ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺠﺪﺩﺍﹰ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻧﻤﻲﺷﻮﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﻣﺎﻧﻨﺪ ﺧﺮﻳﺪ ﻭ ﻓﺮﻭﺵ ﻋﺘﻴﻘﻪ ﺟﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﺧﺮﻳﺪ ﻭ ﻓﺮﻭﺵ ﻣﺎﺷﻴﻦﻫﺎﻱ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺩﻭﻡ‪.‬‬
‫‪ .٢‬ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻱ ﻏﻴﺮﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭ ﻏﻴﺮ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﻲ )ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖ ﺯﻳﺮﺯﻣﻴﻨﻲ(‪ :‬ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﺠﺎﺋﻴﻜﻪ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖﻫﺎﻱ‬
‫ﻏﻴﺮﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭ ﻏﻴﺮﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﻲ ﻧﻈﻴﺮ ﻗﺎﭼﺎﻕ ﻣﻮﺍﺩ ﻣﺨﺪﺭ ﻭ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﻏﻴﺮﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﻲ ﺟﺰﺀ‬
‫ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﻲ ﻣﺤﺴﻮﺏ ﻧﻤﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﻟﺬﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﻟﺤﺎﻅ‬
‫ﻧﻤﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪ .٣‬ﻛﻤﻜﻬﺎﻱ ﺑﻼﻋﻮﺽ )ﺍﻧﻔﺎﻕ ‪ ،‬ﻫﺪﻳﻪ(‪ :‬ﺑﻪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻛﻤﻚﻫﺎ ﻳﻚ ﻣﺮﺗﺒﻪ ﺟﺰﺀ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪﻫﺎﻱ‬
‫ﺩﺍﺭﻧﺪﮔﺎﻥ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﻣﺤﺴﻮﺏ ﺷﺪﻩ‪ ،‬ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪﻫﺎ ﺗﺤﺖ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻛﻤﻚﻫﺎﻱ ﺑﻼﻋﻮﺽ ﻣﺠﺪﺩﹰﺍ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎ ﻟﺤﺎﻅ ﻧﻤﻲﺷﻮﻧﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪$‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪:#02O " 89:*;" GNP %& *"( #02O P0 8.&*9" %(>*) %& 8E 3*"#/ = *HN*E (2‬‬

‫‪ .١‬ﺧﻮﺩ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ ﻛﺸﺎﻭﺭﺯﺍﻥ‪ :‬ﺧﻮﺩﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ‪ ،‬ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﻛﺎﻻﻳﻲ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﻩ‪ ،‬ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‬
‫ﺷﺪﻩ ﻭ ﺑﺨﺸﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻥ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﺑﻪ ﻓﺮﻭﺵ ﻧﺮﺳﺎﻧﺪﻩ ﺭﺍ ﺗﺤﺖ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﺧﻮﺩ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ‪ ،‬ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻣﻲﺭﺳﺎﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﺠﺎﺋﻴﻜﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﻛﺎﻻ ﺑﺨﺸﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﻣﺤﺴﻮﺏ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻟﺬﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪ .٢‬ﺍﺟﺎﺭﻩ ﺧﺎﻧﻪﻫﺎ‪ :‬ﺍﻓﺮﺍﺩﻱ ﻛﻪ ﺻﺎﺣﺒﺎﻥ ﻣﻨﺎﺯﻝ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ ﮔﺮﭼﻪ ﻭﺟﻮﻫﻲ ﺭﺍ ﺗﺤﺖ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ‬
‫ﺍﺟﺎﺭﻩﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺧﺖ ﻧﻤﻲﻛﻨﻨﺪ ﺍﻣﺎ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﺠﺎﺋﻴﻜﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻮﻉ ﻣﻨﺎﺯﻝ ﻳﻚ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻳﻲ ﻣﺤﺴﻮﺏ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺷﻮﻧﺪ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ ﺍﺯ ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻳﻲ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎ ﻟﺤﺎﻅ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﺟﺎﺭﻩﺧﺎﻧﻪﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﻧﻮﻋﻲ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ ﺍﺯ ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻳﻲ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺍﺭﻧﺪﮔﺎﻥ ﻣﻨﺎﺯﻝ ﻣﺴﻜﻮﻧﻲ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻧﻨﺪ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺟﺎﺭﻩ ﺁﻥ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺪﺳﺖ ﺑﻴﺎﻭﺭﻧﺪ‪.‬‬
‫‪ .٣‬ﻛﺎﺭﻣﺰﺩ ﺍﺣﺘﺴﺎﺑﻲ‪ :‬ﺩﺭ ﻗﺴﻤﺖ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺤﺚ ﺷﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪ ١:GDP‬ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺍﻓﺰﻭﺩﻩ ﺑﺨﺶﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﻳﻚ‬ ‫&(‪!/‬‬ ‫‪R.*/*0 #1.23‬‬

‫ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩﻩ ﺟﻐﺮﺍﻓﻴﺎﻳﻲ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪:‬‬

‫ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻋﻮﺍﻳﺪ ﺩﺭﻳﺎﻓﺘﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ ‪GDP # GNP $‬‬

‫ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺧﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ ‪ -‬ﺩﺭﻳﺎﻓﺖ ﺍﺯ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ = ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻋﻮﺍﻳﺪ ﺩﺭﻳﺎﻓﺘﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ‬

‫‪:3(m) %(>*) = 2 (f)I"(2S TP1U 8) !/(& -.*/*0 #1.23‬‬

‫ﺗﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ )‪ (GDP f‬ﻭ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ‬
‫ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ )‪ (GDP m‬ﺩﺭ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺗﻬﺎﻱ ﻏﻴﺮﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ‬
‫ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺍﺯ‪:‬‬
‫ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺗﻬﺎﻱ ﻏﻴﺮﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ ‪GDP M = GDP f +‬‬

‫ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﻓﻮﻕ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕﻫﺎﻱ ﻏﻴﺮﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﺯ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺑﺪﺳﺖ ﻣﻲﺁﻳﺪ‪:‬‬
‫ﻳﺎﺭﺍﻧﻪﻫﺎﻱ ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺧﺘﻲ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ـ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﻏﻴﺮﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ = ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺗﻬﺎﻱ ﻏﻴﺮﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ‬

‫‪1- Cross domestic Product‬‬

‫‪2- factor price‬‬
‫‪3- market price‬‬

‫‪%‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪:٤W%*X" ?56@ >( GNP 89:*;" (V‬‬

‫ﺑﻪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺣﺠﻢ ﮔﺴﺘﺮﺩﻩ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﻭ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﺯ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎ ﺍﺯ‬
‫ﺭﻭﺵ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺍﻓﺰﻭﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻧﻤﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎﺩﮔﻲ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥ ﻣﺪﻭﺭ ﻭ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮﻱ‬
‫ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻭ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ‪ ،‬ﺍﺯ ﺭﻭﺵ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻳﺎ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﻭﺵ‪ ،‬ﻛﻞ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ‬
‫ﺻﺮﻑ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺭﻭﻱ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭﻫﺎ )‪ ،١(C‬ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﺍﻥ)‪،٢(I‬‬
‫ﺩﻭﻟﺖ)‪ ٣(G‬ﻭ ﺧﺮﻳﺪﺍﺭﺍﻥ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻲ )‪ ٤(X-M‬ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪GDP # C‬‬ ‫‪I‬‬ ‫) ‪G (X $ M‬‬ ‫ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻴﻢ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪:‬‬
‫‪ GDP‬ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺑﻪ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﺍﺳﺖ؛ ﭼﺮﺍ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺗﻲ ﻛﻪ ﻓﺮﺩ ﺍﺯ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ‬
‫ﺧﺮﻳﺪﺍﺭﻱ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﻩ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﻳﺎ ﻳﺎﺭﺍﻧﻪ ﺗﻌﻠﻖ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ ﺳﻌﻲ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺟﺰﺍﺀ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ‬
‫ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺢ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﻻﺯﻡ ﺑﻪ ﺫﻛﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻗﺴﻤﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺑﻌﺪﻱ ﺍﺟﺰﺍﺀ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ‬
‫ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺗﺠﺰﻳﻪ ﻭ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫(‪Y6R" - 4.‬‬
‫ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻛﻠﻲ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﺳﻪ ﺟﺰﺀ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻱ ﺑﺎﺩﻭﺍﻡ‪ ،‬ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻱ ﺑﻲﺩﻭﺍﻡ ﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ‪ :‬ﻫﺮ ﭼﻴﺰﻱ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻫﻨﮕﺎﻡ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻥ ﺟﻨﺒﻪ ﻓﻴﺰﻳﻜﻲ ﻧﺪﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﻫﻤﺎﻧﻨﺪ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻁ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺻﻼﺡ ﺳﺮ ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﺩﺭﺳﻲ ﻛﻪ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﻟﻤﺲ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻱ ﺑﺎﺩﻭﺍﻡ‪ :‬ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻳﻲ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ ﻛﻪ ﻋﻤﺮ ﻣﻔﻴﺪ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺑﻴﺶ ﺍﺯ ﻳﻜﺴﺎﻝ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﻣﺎﻧﻨﺪ ﻣﺎﺷﻴﻦ‬
‫ﻟﺒﺎﺳﺸﻮﻳﻲ ﻭ ﻏﻴﺮﻩ‪.‬‬
‫ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻱ ﺑﻲﺩﻭﺍﻡ ‪ :‬ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻳﻲ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ ﻛﻪ ﻋﻤﺮ ﻣﻔﻴﺪ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﻛﻤﺘﺮ ﺍﺯ ﻳﻜﺴﺎﻝ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﻣﺎﻧﻨﺪ‬
‫ﻟﺒﺎﺱ‪ ،‬ﻛﻔﺶ‬

‫‪'%(Z[85*"6: – V‬‬
‫ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺍﺯ ﻛﻠﻴﻪ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻱ ﻭﺍﺳﻄﻪﺍﻱ ﻳﺎ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﺍﻱ ﺧﺮﻳﺪﺍﺭﻱ‬
‫ﺷﺪﻩ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺿﺎﻓﻪ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩﻱ ﻛﺎﻻ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻧﺒﺎﺭ‪.‬‬

‫‪4- Expenditure Approach‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫‪- consumption‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪- Investment‬‬
‫‪3‬‬
‫‪- Government Expenditure‬‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫‪- Export minus Import‬‬

‫&‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻛﻠﻲ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﺩﻭ ﺟﺰﺀ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻭ ﺍﺳﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ‪ ،‬ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﻪ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺟﻲ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺮﺭﻭﻱ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻱ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﺍﻱ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ‬
‫ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖﻫﺎ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﻣﻲﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﻪ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺟﻲ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺟﺎﻳﮕﺰﻳﻦ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﻥ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻱ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﺍﻱ ﻓﺮﺳﻮﺩﻩ‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﻳﻚ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﺪﻳﻦ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ‪:‬‬
‫)‪ ١(D‬ﺍﺳﺘﻬﻼﻙ ‪ +‬ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ‪ = (I N) ٢‬ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ‪( IG)٣‬‬

‫ﺑﺎ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﺷﺪﻥ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ‬
‫ﺯﻳﺮ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﻧﻤﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪ = NNP٤ = GNP – D‬ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ‬
‫‪٥‬‬
‫‪'#"$%& <=% >( GNP 89:*;" ( W‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﻭﺵ‪ ،‬ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪﻫﺎﻱ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺷﻜﻞﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﻋﻢ ﺍﺯ ﺩﺳﺘﻤﺰﺩ‪،‬‬
‫ﺳﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺍﺟﺎﺭﻩ‪ ،‬ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ﻭ ﻏﻴﺮﻩ ﻋﺎﻳﺪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﺑﺎ ﻳﻜﺪﻳﮕﺮ ﺟﻤﻊ ﻣﻲﮔﺮﺩﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ‪:‬‬
‫ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕﻫﺎﻱ ﻏﻴﺮﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ ‪ +‬ﺍﺳﺘﻬﻼﻙ ‪ +‬ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ‪ +‬ﺍﺟﺎﺭﻩ ‪ +‬ﺩﺳﺘﻤﺰﺩ ‪ +‬ﺳﻮﺩ = ‪GNP m‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﻓﻮﻕ‪ ،‬ﺳﻮﺩ ﺍﺯ ﭼﻬﺎﺭ ﺟﺰﺀ ﺳﻮﺩ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺷﺪﻩ‪ ،‬ﺳﻮﺩ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻧﺸﺪﻩ‪ ،‬ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺑﺮ ﺳﻮﺩ‬
‫ﺷﺮﻛﺖﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﺍﻧﺒﺎﺭ ﺗﺸﻜﻴﻞ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﺎ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪﻱ ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺳﺎﻳﺮ ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﻫﻤﭽﻮﻥ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ‬
‫ﻣﻠﻲ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺷﺨﺼﻲ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺗﺼﺮﻑ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺳﺮﺍﻧﻪ ﺭﺍ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻧﻤﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ‪ :٦‬ﻋﻮﺍﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻃﺒﻘﺎﺕ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﻳﻚ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻄﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖﻫﺎﻱ‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻧﻘﺶ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭﻳﺎﻓﺖ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺧﺘﻬﺎﻱﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺧﺖ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﺷﺮﻛﺘﻬﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ـ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺗﻬﺎﻱ ﻏﻴﺮﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ ‪ -‬ﺍﺳﺘﻬﻼﻙ‪NI =GNP-‬‬ ‫ﺳﻮﺩ ﻛﺎﺭﺧﺎﻧﻪﻫﺎﻱ ﺩﻭﻟﺘﻲ ـ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮﻛﺘﻬﺎ ‪+‬‬

‫‪1- Deprecation‬‬
‫‪2- Net investment‬‬
‫‪3- Gross investment‬‬
‫‪4- Net national product‬‬
‫‪5- Income Approach‬‬
‫‪6‬‬
‫‪- National Income‬‬

‫'‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﺍﺯ ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺧﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻟﻲ ﺷﺮﻛﺖﻫﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ‪ ،‬ﻭﺟﻮﻫﻲ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺮﺧﻲ ﺷﺮﻛﺖﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺧﺎﺻﻲ ﻣﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻛﻤﻚ ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺧﺖ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺧﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮﻛﺖﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﻚﻫﺎﻱ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺨﺶ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﺣﻤﺎﻳﺖ ﺍﺯ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﻭ ﺍﻳﺠﺎﺩ‬
‫ﺍﺷﺘﻐﺎﻝ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬
‫&‪ :١(PI) RXO #"$%‬ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪﻱ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺷﺨﺎﺹ ﺗﻌﻠﻖ ﻣﻲﮔﻴﺮﺩ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺯﻳﺮ‬ ‫‪-‬‬

‫ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪:‬‬
‫ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺧﺖﻫﺎﻱﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻟﻲ‪ +‬ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺧﺖﺑﻴﻤﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻭﺳﻴﻠﻪ ﺷﺮﻛﺖﻫﺎ ـ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺑﺮ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺷﺮﻛﺘﻬﺎ ـ ﺳﻮﺩ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻧﺸﺪﻩ ﺷﺮﻛﺘﻬﺎ‪PI = NI -‬‬

‫&‪ :٢(DI) Y6R3 I)*U #"$%‬ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪﻱ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻧﻨﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ ﺩﺧﻞ ﻭ ﺗﺼﺮﻑ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻨﺪ‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫ﻭ ﺑﺮ ﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﺁﻥ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺗﻨﻈﻴﻢ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻨﺪ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪:‬‬
‫ﺣﻖ ﺑﻴﻤﻪ ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺧﺘﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻭﺳﻴﻠﻪ ﺍﺷﺨﺎﺹ ـ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺑﺮﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺍﺷﺨﺎﺹ ـ ‪DI = PI‬‬

‫‪ :380(6: #"$%& -‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﻫﺮ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ ﻭ ﺑﻪ‬

‫ﺷﻴﻮﻩ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ‬
‫ﺟﻤﻌﻴﺖ = ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺳﺮﺍﻧﻪ‬

‫‪:٤'%*\1) ]60 89:*;" (1-3‬‬

‫ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻱ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺍﺯ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺍﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻱ ﻛﻪ ﺟﻮﻳﺎﻱ ﻛﺎﺭ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﺑﻪ ﻛﻞ ﺟﻤﻌﻴﺖ ﻓﻌﺎﻝ‬
‫ﺍﺯ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪.‬‬
‫‪U‬‬
‫‪ u #‬ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺑﺪﻳﻦ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﻓﺮﻣﻮﻝ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﻣﻲﺁﻳﺪ‪.‬‬
‫‪L‬‬
‫ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ‪ U ،‬ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﺍﻥ ﺟﻮﻳﺎﻱ ﻛﺎﺭ ﻭ ‪ ٥L‬ﻛﻞ ﺟﻤﻌﻴﺖ ﻓﻌﺎﻝ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺩﻭ‬
‫ﻧﻜﺘﻪ ﺣﺎﺋﺰ ﺍﻫﻤﻴﺖ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪:‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫‪- Personal Income‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪- Disposable Income‬‬
‫‪3‬‬
‫‪- Per capita income‬‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫‪- unemployment Rate‬‬
‫‪5‬‬
‫‪- Labor Force‬‬

‫(‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻒ‪ -‬ﺟﻤﻌﻴﺖ ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭ ﺟﻮﻳﺎﻱ ﻛﺎﺭ‪ :‬ﺩﺭ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻓﺮﺍﺩﻱ ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭ ﻣﺤﺴﻮﺏ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﻧﺪ‬
‫ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻛﺎﺭ ﺟﻮﻳﺎﻱ ﻛﺎﺭ ﺑﻮﺩﻩ ﻭ ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﺑﻨﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻻﻳﻠﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺟﺴﺘﺠﻮﻱ ﺷﻐﻞ ﻧﺎﺍﻣﻴﺪ ﮔﺮﺩﺩ ﻭ‬
‫ﺍﺯ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻛﺎﺭ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ ﺷﻮﻧﺪ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺟﺰﺀ ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﺍﻥ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﻧﻤﻲﺷﻮﻧﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺏ – ﺟﻤﻌﻴﺖ ﻓﻌﺎﻝ‪ :‬ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻛﻠﻲ ﺟﻤﻌﻴﺖ ﻓﻌﺎﻝ ﻳﺎ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻱ ﻛﺎﺭ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﺷﺎﻏﻠﻴﻦ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻼﻭﻩ‬
‫ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﺍﻥ ﺟﻮﻳﺎﻱ ﻛﺎﺭ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪ : !"#$% &'( -‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺍﺯ ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﺟﻤﻌﻴﺖ ﻓﻌﺎﻝ ﺑﻪ ﻛﻞ ﺟﻤﻌﻴﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﻣﻲﺁﻳﺪ ﻭ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺯﺍﺀ ﻫﺮ ﻓﺮﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ ﭼﻨﺪ ﻧﻔﺮ ﺟﻤﻌﻴﺖ ﻓﻌﺎﻝ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪:)"#*+, -./(.‬‬

‫ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻛﻠﻲ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺩﻭ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻱ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮﺡ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪:‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻒ – ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻱ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻲ‪ :‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻱ ﺩﺭ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻄﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺍﺷﺘﻐﺎﻝ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ‬

‫ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﺑﻪ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻣﻲﺁﻳﺪ ﻭ ﻣﻌﻤﻮﻻﹰ ﺑﻴﻦ ﭼﻬﺎﺭ ﺗﺎ ﭘﻨﺞ ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻱ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﺩﻭ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﺻﻄﻜﺎﻛﻲ ﻭ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎﺭﻱ ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ ﻫﺮ ﻛﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺗﺸﺮﻳﺢ‬
‫ﻣﻲﮔﺮﺩﻧﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻒ‪ :١-‬ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﺻﻄﻜﺎﻛﻲ‪ :١‬ﻧﺎﺷﻲ ﺍﺯ ﭘﻮﻳﺎﻳﻲﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻱ‪،‬‬
‫ﮔﺮﭼﻪ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺍﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺟﻮﻳﺎﻱ ﻛﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﺷﻐﻠﻲ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻣﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺁﻧﻜﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﻐﻞ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻓﺮﺩ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺷﺄﻥ ﻭﻱ ﻧﻤﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﺍﺯ ﭘﺬﻳﺮﺵ ﺁﻥ ﺍﺟﺘﻨﺎﺏ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻒ‪ :٢-‬ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻱ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎﺭﻱ‪ :٢‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻱ ﻧﺎﺷﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺗﺤﻮﻝ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﮊﻱ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻭ ﺟﺎﻳﮕﺰﻳﻦ‬
‫ﺷﺪﻥ ﺍﺑﺰﺍﺭﺁﻻﺕ ﭘﻴﺸﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺟﺎﻱ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻱ ﻛﺎﺭ ﺍﻧﺴﺎﻧﻲ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻣﺸﺎﻏﻞ ﺑﺎ‬
‫ﺗﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﮊﻱ ﻗﺪﻳﻤﻲ‪ ،‬ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﺎﺭ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻧﺪﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻱ ﺑﺎ ﺁﻣﻮﺯﺵﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ‬
‫ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﺩﺭ ﺯﻣﻴﻨﻪ ﺣﺮﻓﻪﻫﺎﻱ ﺟﺪﻳﺪ‪ ،‬ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺭﻓﻊ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﺭﻳﺰﻱ ﭘﺮﻭﺭﺵ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻱ‬
‫ﻛﺎﺭ‪ ٣‬ﺩﺭ ﺭﺍﺳﺘﺎﻱ ﺣﺬﻑ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻱ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫‪- Fractional‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪- structural‬‬
‫‪3‬‬
‫‪– Munpowr planning‬‬

‫)‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺏ‪ -‬ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻱ ﻧﺎﺷﻲ ﺩﻭﺭﻩﻫﺎﻱ ﺗﺠﺎﺭﻱ‪ :٤‬ﻫﻨﮕﺎﻣﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ ﺭﻛﻮﺩ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻳﺠﺎﺩ ﺷﻮﺩ‪،‬‬

‫ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻣﺮﺩﻡ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩﻱ ﺍﻧﺒﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺑﻨﮕﺎﻩﻫﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺑﻨﮕﺎﻩﻫﺎ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻱ ﻛﺎﺭ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ‬
‫ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﺍﻗﺪﺍﻡ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺧﺮﺍﺝ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻱ ﻛﺎﺭ ﺧﻮﺩ ﻣﻲﻧﻤﺎﻳﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻣﺮ ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﺠﺎﺩ ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻱ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪4‬‬
‫‪- Cyclical‬‬

‫!‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫?‪( =>1.; #‬‬ ‫@‪,#‬‬ ‫‪0+1 5, GNP) 9"/: ; #< 0+1 23#4 567#8% (1-4‬‬
‫ﻫﻤﺎﻧﮕﻮﻧﻪ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ‪ ،‬ﻫﺪﻑ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ‬
‫ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺩﺭ ﻳﻚ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﺨﺶ ﻫﺪﻑ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ‬
‫ﺑﺮﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﺁﻥ ﺑﺘﻮﺍﻥ ﺭﻭﻧﺪ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﻛﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﺳﻮﺍﻝ ﺁﻥ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺁﻳﺎ‬
‫ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻳﻚ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﻱ ﻧﻜﺮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﻗﺒﻼﹰ ﻣﻄﺮﺡ‬
‫ﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﻭ ﻛﻨﺘﺮﻝ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﻳﻜﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ‬
‫ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻧﺤﻮﻩ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻭ ﮔﻮﻧﻪ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﻋﻤﻞ ﻧﻤﻮﺩ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -١‬ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺗﻚ ﺗﻚ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ‪ :‬ﺍﺷﻜﺎﻟﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﻭﺵ ﻣﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺍﻳﺠﺎﺩ ﺷﻮﺩ ﺁﻥ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ‪ ،‬ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﺑﻪ ﻳﻚ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻧﻴﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﺑﺮﺧﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﻣﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ‬
‫ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻟﺒﺘﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺑﻴﻦ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺑﻪ ﻳﻚ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﻧﻤﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﻭ ﺑﺮﺧﻲ‬
‫ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻱ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﻣﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺭﺍ ﺗﺠﺮﺑﻪ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﻧﻤﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ‬
‫ﺑﻪ ﺩﺭﺳﺘﻲ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺭﻭﻧﺪ ﻛﻠﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﻗﻀﺎﻭﺕ ﻧﻤﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -٢‬ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ‪ :‬ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺘﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﺮﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﺁﻥ ﺭﻭﻧﺪ ﻛﻠﻲ‬
‫ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﺭﺍ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﻧﻤﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﻣﻌﻤﻮﻻﹰ ﺍﺯ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻛﻤﻴﺘﻲ ﺍﺳﺖ‬
‫ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﻛﻤﻴﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﻫﻤﮕﻦ ﻣﺘﻌﺪﺩ ﺑﻜﺎﺭ ﻣﻲﺭﻭﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﺍﮔﺮ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‬
‫ﺗﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ »ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻱ ﺧﻮﺭﺍﻛﻲ« ﻭ ﻳﺎ »ﮔﺮﻭﻩ ﭘﻮﺷﺎﻙ« ﻭ ﻳﺎ »ﺧﻮﺩﺭﻭ« ﺑﺤﺜﻲ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﺷﻮﺩ‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﻴﻮﻩ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻫﺮ ﮔﺮﻭﻩ ﺍﺯ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﻣﺜﻼﹰ »ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻱ ﺧﻮﺭﺍﻛﻲ« ﻭ ﻳﺎ »ﮔﺮﻭﻩ ﭘﻮﺷﺎﻙ« ﻭ ﻳﺎ‬
‫»ﺧﻮﺩﺭﻭ« ﻳﻚ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺗﺸﺮﻳﺢ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻱ ﮔﺮﻭﻩ ﺧﺎﺹ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻥ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻧﻤﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ ﻧﺤﻮﻩ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺﻫﺎ ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺢ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫(‪:#< 0+1 23#4 567#8% A/8‬‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﺍﻭﻟﻴﻦ ﻧﻜﺘﻪﺍﻱ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺑﻪ ﺁﻥ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﻧﻤﻮﺩ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ‬
‫ﺳﺎﻝ ﭘﺎﻳﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻣﻌﻤﻮﻻﹰ ﺳﺎﻝ ﭘﺎﻳﻪ ﺭﺍ ﺳﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺏ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﻨﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺩﭼﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻭ ﺗﺤﻮﻻﺕ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﻱ ﻧﺸﺪﻩ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﺎ ﺫﻛﺮ ﻣﺜﺎﻟﻲ ﻧﺤﻮﻩ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺﻫﺎ ﺗﺸﺮﻳﺢ‬
‫ﻣﻲﮔﺮﺩﺩ‪.‬‬

‫"‬
 ‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺍﮔﺮ ﻓﺮﺽ ﺷﻮﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﭘﻨﺞ ﻛﺎﻻﻱ ﺳﻴﺐ‪ ،‬ﻣﻮﺯ‪ ،‬ﺧﻮﺩﻛﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﺩﻓﺘﺮ ﻭ ﺧﻮﺩﺭﻭ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻭ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻫﺮ ﻳﻚ ﺍﺯ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻪ ﺳﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻳﻚ‪ ،‬ﺩﻭ ﻭ ﺳﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮﺡ‬
‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﭼﮕﻮﻧﻪ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺭﻭﻧﺪ ﻛﻠﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎﻱ ﺩﻭ ﻭ ﺳﻪ ﺑﺤﺚ ﻧﻤﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺗﻲ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻋﻤﻮﻣﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻓﺮﺿﻲ‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺩﻭﻡ ﻭ ﺳﻮﻡ ﭼﮕﻮﻧﻪ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ؟ ﺁﻳﺎ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﻳﺎ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ؟‬
‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ‪ (١-١‬ﺍﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻁ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﭘﻨﺞ ﻛﺎﻻ ﺩﺭ ﻳﻚ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻓﺮﺿﻲ‬
‫ﺳﺎﻝ‬
‫ﺳﻪ‬ ‫ﺩﻭ‬ ‫ﻳﻚ‬ ‫ﻛﺎﻻ‬
‫ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺭﻳﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺖ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺭﻳﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺖ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺯﺵ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺖ‬
‫ﺭﻳﺎﻟﻲ‬

‫‪١٩٠٠٠٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٤٧٥٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٤٠‬‬ ‫‪١٧٨٦٠٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٤٧٠٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٣٨‬‬ ‫‪٣٥٠٠٠‬‬ ‫‪١٠٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٣٥‬‬ ‫"!‬

‫‪١٣١٧٥٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٨٥٠٠‬‬ ‫‪١٥٥‬‬ ‫‪١٣٥٠٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٩٠٠‬‬ ‫‪١٥٠‬‬ ‫‪١٠٤٠٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٨٠٠‬‬ ‫‪١٣٠‬‬ ‫‪#$%‬‬

‫‪١٣٣٠٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٧٠٠٠‬‬ ‫‪١٩‬‬ ‫‪٩٦٠٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٦٠٠٠‬‬ ‫‪١٦‬‬ ‫‪٧٥٠٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٥٠٠٠‬‬ ‫‪١٥‬‬ ‫*‪&'()$‬‬

‫‪٦٠٠٠٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٦٠٠٠‬‬ ‫‪١٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٥،١٣٠،٠٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٥٧٠٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٩٠‬‬ ‫‪٥١٠٠٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٦٠٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٨٥‬‬ ‫)‪+,-‬‬

‫‪٤٢٣،٠٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٩‬‬ ‫‪٤٧٠٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٥٣٩،٠٠٠‬‬ ‫‪١١‬‬ ‫‪٤٩٠٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٥٠٠٠٠٠‬‬ ‫‪١٠‬‬ ‫‪٥٠،٠٠٠‬‬ ‫*‪.&)$‬‬

‫‪٤،٣٧٣،٥٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٧،٦٨٦،٠٠٠‬‬ ‫‪١٢٢٤٠٠٠‬‬ ‫‪/01‬‬

‫‪'23#&4‬‬

‫ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﭘﺎﺳﺦ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺳﻮﺍﻝ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺷﺎﺧﺺﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﻲ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺷﻴﻮﻩﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ‬
‫ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻛﺮﺩ‪:‬‬

‫!‪ :#<B#‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﻭﺵ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫‪0+1 AC#7 D+E(#+% F?'G H. 23#4 567#8% (1‬‬

‫ﺳﺎﺩﮔﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﻣﻴﺎﻧﮕﻴﻦ ﺳﺎﺩﻩ ﮔﺮﻓﺖ ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺁﻥ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ‬

‫ﺳﺎﻝ ﭘﺎﻳﻪ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ ،‬ﺳﺎﻝ ﻳﻚ ﺭﺍ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﺳﺎﻝ ﭘﺎﻳﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﻻﺯﻡ ﺑﻪ ﺫﻛﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ﭘﺎﻳﻪ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ‪ ١٠٠‬ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ‬
‫ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺩﺭ ﻃﻲ ﺳﻪ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮﺡ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺳﺎﻝ ﻳﻚ‬ ‫ﺳﺎﻝ ﺩﻭ‬ ‫ﺳﺎﻝ ﺳﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﻴﺎﻧﮕﻴﻦ ﺳﺎﺩﻩ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ‬

‫‪10053‬‬ ‫‪9858/8‬‬ ‫‪9462/8‬‬

‫‪10053‬‬ ‫‪٩٨٥٨/٨‬‬ ‫‪٩٤٦٢/٨‬‬

‫× ‪100‬‬ ‫‪=100%‬‬
‫‪10053‬‬ ‫‪10053 ×100=98%‬‬ ‫‪10053 × 100 =94%‬‬ ‫ﺷﺎﺧﺺ‬

‫‪- %2‬‬ ‫‪-%4/08‬‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ‬

‫ﺑﺎ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺩﻭﻡ ﻭ ﺳﻮﻡ‬
‫ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻧﻤﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﻃﺒﻖ ﺍﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻣﻨﺪﺭﺝ ﺩﺭ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﻓﻮﻕ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺩﻭ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﺩﻭ ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ‬
‫ﺳﻮﻡ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ‪ ٤/٠٨‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﻣﺎ ﺑﺎ ﻛﻤﻲ ﺩﻗﺖ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻁ ﺑﻪ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ‬
‫ﺗﻚﺗﻚ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﻣﻼﺣﻈﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺗﻤﺎﻣﻲ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻨﺎﺀ ﺧﻮﺩﺭﻭ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﺠﺎﺋﻴﻜﻪ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺧﻮﺩﺭﻭ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻱ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻟﺬﺍ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻣﻴﺎﻧﮕﻴﻦ ﺳﺎﺩﻩ‪ ،‬ﻛﻞ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺭﺍ ﺗﺤﺖ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﻭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺩﺭ ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﻳﻜﻲ ﺍﺯ‬
‫ﺍﺷﻜﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﺳﺎﺳﻲ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺷﻴﻮﻩ ﻣﻴﺎﻧﮕﻴﻦ ﺳﺎﺩﻩ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺭﻓﻊ ﺍﻳﻦ‬
‫ﺍﺷﻜﺎﻝ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻴﺎﻧﮕﻴﻦ ﻭﺯﻧﻲ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻧﻤﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪ :=(H; D+E(#+% F?'G H. 0+1 23#4 567#8% (2‬ﺍﮔﺮ ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺍﺯ‬
‫ﻣﻴﺎﻧﮕﻴﻦ ﻭﺯﻧﻲ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﻪ ﻧﺤﻮﻱ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻟﺤﺎﻅ‬
‫ﺷﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﺠﺎﺋﻴﻜﻪ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻫﻢ ﺗﺤﺖ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻭ ﻫﻢ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﺳﺖ ﻟﺬﺍ‬
‫ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺭﺳﺘﻲ ﻣﻨﻌﻜﺲ ﻧﻤﻲﻛﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺭﻓﻊ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺸﻜﻞ ﺭﺍﻩﺣﻞﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﻲ‬
‫ﭘﻴﺸﻨﻬﺎﺩ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ ﻫﺮ ﻛﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪ :١H'+I7B J;" (2-1‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻁ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎﻝ ﭘﺎﻳﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﺪﻳﻦ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ‪ ،‬ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺣﺬﻑ ﻭ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ‬
‫ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺑﻪ ﺷﻴﻮﻩ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﻧﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪1- Laspeyrs‬‬

‫‪#‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪!pi qo‬‬
‫" ‪IL‬‬ ‫‪١٠٠‬‬
‫‪!p o q o‬‬
‫ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻻﺳﭙﻴﺮﺯ ﺑﺮﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﺍﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻣﻨﺪﺭﺝ ﺩﺭ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﻓﻮﻕ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎﻱ ﺩﻭ ﻭﺳﻪ‬
‫)ﺳﺎﻝ ﻳﻚ ﺳﺎﻝ ﭘﺎﻳﻪ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ( ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﻮﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻴﻢ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪:‬‬

‫‪38‬‬ ‫‪* 100 + 150 * 800 + 16 * 5000 + 90 * 6000 49000+ * 10‬‬

‫= ﺳﺎﻝ ﺩﻭﻡ‪IL‬‬ ‫‪=١٠٣/٥٩‬‬
‫‪35‬‬ ‫‪* 1000 + 130 * 800 + 15 * 500 + 85 * 600 + 50000 * 10‬‬

‫‪٤٠ * ١٠٠٠ + ١٥٥ * ٨٠٠ + ١٩ * ٥٠٠٠ + ١٠٠ * ٦٠٠٠ + ٤٧٠٠ * ١٠‬‬

‫= ﺳﺎﻝ ﺳﻮﻡ‪IL‬‬ ‫‪=١٠٨/٥٨‬‬
‫‪٣٥ * ١٠٠٠ + ١٣٠ * ٨٠٠ + ١٥ * ٥٠٠٠ + ٨٥ * ٦٠٠ + ٥٠٠٠٠ * ١٠‬‬

‫ﻣﻘﺎﻳﺴﻪ ﺩﻭ ﺭﻗﻢ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺩﻭﻡ ﻭ ﺳﻮﻡ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻋﻤﻮﻣﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺩﻭﻡ ﻭ ﺳﻮﻡ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎﻝ ﭘﺎﻳﻪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻻﺳﭙﻴﺮﺯ ﺁﻥ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ ،‬ﻛﻪ ﺁﻥ ﺳﺒﺪ ﻛﺎﻻﻳﻲ ﻛﻪ ﻓﺮﺩ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﻩ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ﭘﺎﻳﻪ‬
‫ﺧﺮﻳﺪﺍﺭﻱ ﻣﻲﻛﺮﺩ ﺍﮔﺮ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺑﻮﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺟﺎﺭﻱ ﺧﺮﻳﺪﺍﺭﻱ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﺪ ﭼﻘﺪﺭ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺧﺖ‬
‫ﻣﻲﻧﻤﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺸﻜﻞ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻻﺳﭙﻴﺮﺯ‪ :‬ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻱ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺑﻌﻀﻲ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ﭘﺎﻳﻪ ﻛﻪ ﻫﻢ ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻧﻤﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻻﺳﭙﻴﺮﺯ ﻣﺸﻜﻼﺗﻲ ﺭﺍ ﺍﻳﺠﺎﺩ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ؛ ﭼﺮﺍ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺮﺧﻲ‬
‫ﺍﺯ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻳﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ﭘﺎﻳﻪ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻣﻲﮔﺮﺩﻳﺪ ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺟﺰﺀ ﺳﺒﺪ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭﻫﺎ‬
‫ﻧﻴﺴﺖ ﺩﺭ ﺣﺎﻟﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻻﺳﭙﻴﺮﺯ ﻫﻤﭽﻨﺎﻥ ﺗﺮﻛﻴﺐ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻱ ﻗﺒﻠﻲ ﻟﺤﺎﻅ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﺒﺘﻪ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺭﻓﻊ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﺯ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﭘﺎﺷﻪ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪ :٢54#K 23#4 (2-2‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻁ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺟﺎﺭﻱ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﺪﻳﻦ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ‪ ،‬ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺣﺬﻑ ﻭ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ‬
‫ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺑﻪ ﺷﻴﻮﻩ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪:‬‬
‫‪!pi qi‬‬
‫" ‪IP‬‬ ‫‪١٠٠‬‬
‫‪!p o q i‬‬

‫‪2- paasche‬‬

‫‪$‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﭘﺎﺷﻪ ﺑﺮﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﺍﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻣﻨﺪﺭﺝ ﺩﺭ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﻓﻮﻕ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎﻱ ﺩﻭ ﻭ ﺳﻪ )ﺳﺎﻝ‬
‫ﻳﻚ ﺳﺎﻝ ﭘﺎﻳﻪ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ( ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﻮﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻴﻢ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪:‬‬

‫‪38‬‬ ‫‪* 47000 + 150 * 900 + 16 * 6000 + 90 * 57000 + 11 * 49000‬‬

‫= ﺳﺎﻝ ﺩﻭﻡ‪IP‬‬ ‫‪* ١٠٠ = ١٠٦/٠٦‬‬
‫‪35 * 47000 130+ * 900 + 15 * 6000 + 85 * 57000 + 50000 * 11‬‬

‫‪40‬‬‫‪* 47500 + 155 * 8500 + 19 7000* + 100 * 6000 + 9 * 47000 =١١٤/١٢‬‬

‫= ﺳﺎﻝ ﺳﻮﻡ‪IP‬‬
‫‪35 * 47500 + 130 * 8500 + 15 * 7000 + 85 * 6000 + 50000 * 9‬‬

‫ﻃﺒﻖ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﭘﺎﺷﻪ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﭘﺎﺷﻪ ﻣﻲﮔﻮﻳﺪ ﺳﺒﺪ ﻛﺎﻻﻳﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻣﺴﺎﻝ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﻴﻢ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ﭘﺎﻳﻪ ﭼﻘﺪﺭ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ‬
‫ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ :١ !"# $%&' (2-3‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻴﺎﻧﮕﻴﻦ ﻫﻨﺪﺳﻲ ﺩﻭ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﭘﺎﺷﻪ ﻭ ﻻﺳﭙﻴﺮﺯ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮﺡ‬
‫ﺯﻳﺮ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪:‬‬

‫‪I Ft‬‬ ‫‪I Pt I Lt‬‬

‫ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻓﻴﺸﺮ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻁ ﺑﻪ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺤﺚ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺩﻭ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺩﻭﻡ ﻭ ﺳﻮﻡ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮﺡ‬
‫ﺯﻳﺮ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪:‬‬

‫= ﺳﺎﻝ ﺩﻭﻡ‪IF‬‬ ‫‪١٠٣/٥٩‬‬ ‫‪* ١٠٦/٠٦ = ١٠٤/٨‬‬

‫= ﺳﺎﻝ ﺳﻮﻡ‪IF‬‬ ‫‪١١٤/١٢‬‬ ‫‪* ١٠٨/٥٨ = ١١١/٣‬‬

‫‪ :*"+(&") $%&' :2-4‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﻭﺵ ﺑﻪ ﺟﺎﻱ ﺁﻧﻜﻪ ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ﺳﺎﻝ ﭘﺎﻳﻪ ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﺳﺎﻝ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻟﺤﺎﻅ ﺷﻮﺩ ﻣﻴﺎﻧﮕﻴﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ﺳﺎﻝ ﭘﺎﻳﻪ ﻭ ﺳﺎﻝ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻭﺯﻥ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ‬
‫ﺷﺎﺧﺺﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪:‬‬

‫‪1- Fisher‬‬

‫!‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫) ‪"pi (qi ! qo‬‬

‫‪IA‬‬
‫) ‪"po (qi ! qo‬‬

‫‪:,&0123 ., &4$%&' , -.&/‬‬

‫ﺷﺎﺧﺺﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﺎﺭﺑﺮﺩﻫﺎﻱ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﻭﺳﻴﻌﻲ ﺩﺍﺭﻧﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺮﺧﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﻛﺎﺭﺑﺮﺩ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﺷﺮﺡ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻒ( ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻲ ﻛﺮﺩﻥ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﺳﻤﻲ‪ :‬ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻲ ﻛﺮﺩﻥ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﺳﻤﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺭﺷﺪ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻣﺪ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ‬
‫ﺭﺷﺪ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺍﺳﻤﻲ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ )ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺿﺮﺑﺪﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ(‬
‫ﻧﻤﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺭﺷﺪ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺭﺍ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻛﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﭼﺮﺍ ﻛﻪ ﺭﺷﺪ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺍﺳﻤﻲ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‪ ،‬ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻭ‬
‫ﺳﻄﺢ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻫﻤﺰﻣﺎﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺮﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﻟﺬﺍ ﻻﺯﻡ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺑﻪ ﻧﺤﻮﻱ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﺍﺯ‬
‫ﺩﺭﻭﻥ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺍﺳﻤﻲ ﺗﻔﻜﻴﻚ ﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﻓﺮﺿﻲ ﻣﺎ‪ ،‬ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻄﺢ ‪ ٧،٦٨٦،٠٠٠‬ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺩﻭﻡ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ‬
‫‪ ٤،٣٧٣،٥٠٠‬ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺳﻮﻡ ﻧﻤﻲﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻲ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺭﺍ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﻫﺪ‪ .‬ﭼﺮﺍ ﻛﻪ‬
‫ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺩﺭ ﺩﺭﻭﻥ ﺁﻥ ﻣﺴﺘﺘﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﻻﺯﻡ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺑﺘﺪﺍ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ‬
‫ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﺍﺯ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺍﺳﻤﻲ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺑﻪ ﻧﺤﻮﻱ ﺑﻴﺮﻭﻥ ﻛﺸﻴﺪﻩ ﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻣﺮ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﻳﻜﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺷﺎﺧﺺﻫﺎﻱ ﻻﺳﭙﻴﺮﺯ ﻳﺎ ﭘﺎﺷﻪ ﻭ ﻏﻴﺮﻩ ﺭﺍ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ‬
‫ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺍﺳﻤﻲ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺩﻭﻡ ﺑﺮﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ‬
‫ﻻﺳﭙﻴﺮﺯ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻲ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻴﻢ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻴﻢ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪:‬‬

‫ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺍﺳﻤﻲ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺩﻭﻡ‬

‫‪٧٦٨٦٠٠٠‬‬
‫= ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻻﺳﭙﻴﺮﺯ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺩﻭﻡ = ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻲ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺩﻭﻡ‬ ‫‪= ٧٤١٩٦٣٥/١‬‬
‫‪١/٠٣٥٩‬‬

‫"‬
 ‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺳﻮﺍﻝ ﺁﻥ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﭼﺮﺍ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻲ ﻛﺮﺩﻥ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﺳﻤﻲ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺑﺮ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ‬
‫ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﺷﻮﻧﺪ؟ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﭘﺎﺳﺦ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺳﻮﺍﻝ ﻓﺮﺽ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ ‪ GNP‬ﺍﺳﻤﻲ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻱ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻭ ﺳﺎﻝ ‪ ٨٠‬ﻭ‬
‫‪ ٨١‬ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺑﻪ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪:‬‬

‫‪GNP ٨٠ = P ٨٠ × Q ٨٠ =١٠٠×١٠=١٠٠٠‬‬

‫‪GNP ٨١ = P ٨١ × Q ٨١ =٤٠٠× ٥ =٢٠٠٠‬‬

‫ﻃﺒﻖ ﺍﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻓﻮﻕ‪ ،‬ﺭﺷﺪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺑﺮ ﺣﺴﺐ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺟﺎﺭﻱ ﺩﻭ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻣﺎ ﺑﺎ ﻛﻤﻲ ﺩﻗﺖ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻡ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ‪ ٨١‬ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ‪ ٤‬ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮ ﻭ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺼﻒ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﻥ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻜﺘﻪ ﻛﺎﻓﻲ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻋﻤﻞ ﺷﻮﺩ‪:‬‬
‫‪،٨١ = Q٨١ × P٨٠ =٥ ×١٠٠ = ٥٠٠‬ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻲ ‪GNP‬‬

‫ﺑﻪ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺳﺎﻝ ‪ ٨١‬ﻭ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺳﺎﻝ ‪ ٨٠‬ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻲ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺁﻳﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺣﻘﻴﻘﺖ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎﻝ ‪ ٨٠‬ﺑﻪ ﻧﺼﻒ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻜﺘﻪ ﺭﺍ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ ﮔﻮﻧﻪﺍﻱ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺁﻭﺭﺩ‪:‬‬
‫‪GNP N$%‬‬ ‫‪Q $%# P $%‬‬
‫‪GNP$%R‬‬ ‫‪Q #P‬‬ ‫‪Q #P‬‬
‫‪$%‬‬ ‫&‪$‬‬ ‫‪P $%‬‬ ‫‪P $%‬‬ ‫‪$%‬‬ ‫&‪$‬‬
‫= '&‪!"# $%‬‬
‫‪P‬‬ ‫‪P‬‬
‫&‪$‬‬ ‫&‪$‬‬

‫ﺑﻪ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ‪ ،‬ﺍﮔﺮ ‪ GNP‬ﺍﺳﻤﻲ ﺑﺮ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺳﺎﺩﻩ ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﺷﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻲ ﺁﻥ ﺑﺪﺳﺖ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺁﻳﺪ‪.‬‬
‫‪GNP$%N‬‬
‫‪GNP$%R‬‬
‫ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ‬

‫ﺑﺎ ﺟﺎﻳﮕﺰﺍﺭﻱ ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻁ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺩﺭ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﻓﻮﻕ ﻭ ﺳﺎﺩﻩﺳﺎﺯﻱ ﺁﻥ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻴﻢ‬
‫ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪:‬‬

‫‪"p i q i‬‬
‫‪GNP R‬‬ ‫‪"p o q i‬‬ ‫‪GNP81R‬‬
‫‪"p i q i‬‬
‫‪"p o q i‬‬

‫‪#‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﻃﺒﻖ ﺍﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻣﻨﺪﺭﺝ ﺩﺭ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ )‪ ،(١-١‬ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻛﻞ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺣﺴﺐ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﻃﻲ‬
‫ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎﻱ ﻳﻚ‪ ،‬ﺩﻭ ﻭ ﺳﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻛﺮﺩ‪:‬‬

‫‪١،٢٢٤،٠٠٠‬‬
‫= ‪R‬ﻳﻚ ‪GNP‬‬ ‫‪= ١،٢٢٤،٠٠٠‬‬
‫‪١‬‬

‫‪٧،٦٨٦،٠٠٠‬‬
‫= ﺩﻭ‪GNP R‬‬ ‫‪= ٧،٤١٩،٦٣٥/١‬‬
‫‪١/٠٣٥٩‬‬

‫‪٤،٣٧٣،٥٠٠‬‬
‫= ﺳﻪ‪GNP R‬‬ ‫‪= ٩٠٥،٠٢٧،٤/٧‬‬
‫‪١/٠٨٥٨‬‬

‫‪ :6,&0123 7'. 89:&;) (5‬ﺭﺷﺪ ‪ GNP‬ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻲ ﺭﺷﺪ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺯﻳﺮ‬

‫ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪GNP $ GNP$1‬‬
‫= ﺭﺷﺪ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫‪# 100‬‬
‫‪GNP$1‬‬

‫<( );&‪ :=.>? 89:‬ﺗﻮﺭﻡ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﺪﺍﻭﻡ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻋﻤﻮﻣﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎﺳﺖ ﺑﻪ‬

‫ﻭﺳﻴﻠﻪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮﺡ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪:‬‬

‫ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ﻗﺒﻞ ‪ -‬ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻧﻈﺮ‬

‫= ﺗﻮﺭﻡ‬ ‫‪× ١٠٠‬‬
‫ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ﻗﺒﻞ‬

‫ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﻃﺒﻖ ﺍﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻣﻨﺪﺭﺝ ﺩﺭ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ‪ ،‬ﺗﻮﺭﻡ ﺑﺮﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻻﺳﭙﻴﺮﺯ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺳﺎﻝ ﺳﻮﻡ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﻮﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺩﺍﺭﻳﻢ‪:‬‬

‫‪١٠٨/٥٨-١٠٣/٥٩‬‬
‫= ﺗﻮﺭﻡ‬ ‫‪× ١٠٠ = ٤/٨١‬‬
‫‪١٠٣/٥٩‬‬

‫ﺑﺪﻳﻦ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻋﻤﻮﻣﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺳﻮﻡ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺩﻭﻡ ‪ ٤/٨‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ‬
‫ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫‪$‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫'&‪: B3 C3 ,&0123 ., &4@A"2 $%‬‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻣﻌﻤﻮﻻﹰ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﺍﺯ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻻﺳﭙﻴﺮﺯ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﻓﺎﺻﻠﻪ ﺯﻣﺎﻧﻲ ﻫﻔﺖ ﺍﻟﻲ ﻫﺸﺖ ﺳﺎﻝ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺳﺎﻝ ﭘﺎﻳﻪ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎﻱ‬
‫ﭘﺎﻳﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺳﺎﻝ ‪ ،١٣٦٩ ،١٣٦١ ،١٣٥٣‬ﻭ ‪ ١٣٧٦‬ﺑﻮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻌﻤﻮﻻﹰ ﺳﺎﻟﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﭘﺎﻳﻪ ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺏ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺩﭼﺎﺭ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺯﻳﺎﺩ ﻭ‬
‫ﻳﺎ ﺷﻮﻙ ﻧﺸﺪﻩ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺷﺎﺧﺺﻫﺎﻳﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﻧﺪ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺗﻨﺪ ﺍﺯ‪:‬‬
‫‪ (١‬ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺑﻬﺎﻱ ﻋﻤﺪﻩ ﻓﺮﻭﺷﻲ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (٢‬ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺑﻬﺎﻱ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (٣‬ﺷﺎﺧﺺﺑﻬﺎﻱ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﻩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺑﻬﺎﻱ ﻋﻤﺪﻩ ﻓﺮﻭﺷﻲ ﺑﺮﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﻋﻤﺪﻩﻓﺮﻭﺷﻲ ‪ 600‬ﻧﻮﻉ ﻛﺎﻻ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺑﻬﺎﻱ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺗﻮﺭﻡ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺑﻬﺎﻱ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ‪ ،‬ﺑﺮ ﻣﺒﻨﺎﻱ ﺑﻴﺶ ﺍﺯ ‪ 2000‬ﻛﺎﻻﻱ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺷﻬﺮ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ ﻫﺮ ﻫﻔﺘﻪ ﺍﺯ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪﮔﻴﺮﻱ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ‬
‫ﺑﺮﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﻻﺳﭙﻴﺮﺯ‪ ،‬ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪١‬‬
‫‪:‬‬ ‫'&‪@A"2 DEAF $%‬‬
‫ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺿﻤﻨﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺍﺯ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ )ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻲ( ﺑﻪ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺟﺎﺭﻱ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‬
‫ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ )ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻲ( ﺑﻪ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﻣﻲﺁﻳﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪GNP N‬‬
‫= ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺿﻤﻨﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ‬ ‫‪× ١٠٠‬‬
‫‪GNP R‬‬

‫ﮔﺮﭼﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺮﺧﻲ ﻣﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﺯ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺿﻤﻨﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺗﻮﺭﻡ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻣﻲ ﺷﻮﺩ‪،‬‬
‫ﺍﻣﺎ ﺗﻔﺎﻭﺕﻫﺎﻳﻲ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺿﻤﻨﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻭ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻣﺼﺮﻑﻛﻨﻨﺪﻩ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺑﻬﺎﻱ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ ﺑﺮﺣﺴﺐ ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪﮔﻴﺮﻱ ﺍﺯ ﺑﺮﺧﻲ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ‬

‫‪1- Implicit GDP Deflator‬‬

‫'‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺗﻲ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ ﻟﺤﺎﻅ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ؛ ﻭﻟﻲ ﺩﺭ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺿﻤﻨﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ‪ ،‬ﺗﻤﺎﻡ‬
‫ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻨﺎﺀ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻱ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺗﻲ ﻟﺤﺎﻅ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫‪:.-#/)0#' 1 !"#$% &'() *+,-‬‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺑﺮ ﺣﺴﺐ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻲ‪ ،‬ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺗﻲ ﺗﺤﺖ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ »ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ‬
‫ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻟﻪ ﺑﺎﺯﺭﮔﺎﻧﻲ« ﺩﺭ ﺣﺴﺎﺏﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺢ‬
‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ‪ ،‬ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﮔﻔﺘﻪ ﺷﺪ‪ GDP ،‬ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪:‬‬

‫‪GDP " C ! I ! G (! ( X‬‬ ‫)‪M‬‬

‫ﺍﮔﺮ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﻭ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ‪ X=1200‬ﻭ ‪ M=1000‬ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ ﺑﻮﺩﻩ ﻭ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺁﻥ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ‪ X-M=200>0‬ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺣﺎﻝ ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ‬
‫ﻫﺮ ﻳﻚ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎﻱ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﻭ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ )ﺑﺎ ﻓﺮﺽ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻱ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺗﻲ‬
‫)‪ (PM=١٩٥‬ﻭ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻱ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺗﻲ )‪ (PX=٢٤١‬ﺑﺎﺷﺪ( ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻲ ﺷﻮﻧﺪ ﻭ ﺟﺪﺍﮔﺎﻧﻪ‬
‫ﺑﺮ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻃﻪ ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﮔﺮﺩﻧﺪ‪ ،‬ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻴﻢ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ ‪:‬‬
‫‪١٢٠٠‬‬ ‫‪١٠٠٠‬‬
‫‪ = ٢٤١ - ١٩٥‬ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﺑﻪ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ‬ ‫‪× ١٠٠ = -١٤/١٩‬‬

‫ﺑﺪﻳﻦ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﻣﻼﺣﻈﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﮔﺮﭼﻪ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﺟﺎﺭﻱ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺍﻣﺎ ﻫﻨﮕﺎﻣﻲ ﻛﻪ‬
‫ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﻭ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻣﺠﺰﺍ ﺑﺮ ﺣﺴﺐ ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻲ ﺗﺒﺪﻳﻞ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﻧﺪ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻲ ﻣﻨﻔﻲ ﻣﻲﮔﺮﺩﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺴﺎﻟﻪ ﻫﻨﮕﺎﻣﻲ ﭘﻴﺶ ﻣﻲﺁﻳﺪ ﻛﻪ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎ ﺑﺮ ﺣﺴﺐ ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻲ‬
‫ﺗﺒﺪﻳﻞ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺭﻓﻊ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﺯ »ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻟﻪ ﺑﺎﺯﺭﮔﺎﻧﻲ« ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻣﻲﮔﺮﺩﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺷﻴﻮﻩ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻋﻤﻞ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪:‬‬
‫‪E"X‬‬ ‫‪M‬‬ ‫ﺍﮔﺮ ﻓﺮﺽ ﺷﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ‪:‬‬
‫ﻭ‬
‫‪X‬‬ ‫‪M‬‬
‫"‪e‬‬
‫‪PX‬‬ ‫‪PM‬‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﻋﻤﻞ ﻫﻨﮕﺎﻡ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻲ ‪ E‬ﻭ ‪ e‬ﻣﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺗﻨﺎﻗﺾ ﺑﺎ ﻳﻜﺪﻳﮕﺮ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺑﮕﻴﺮﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺭﻓﻊ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺸﻜﻞ ﻓﺮﺽ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ ﻛﻪ‪:‬‬

‫&(‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪E‬‬
‫" ‪e#‬‬
‫‪PE‬‬

‫ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ‪:‬‬

‫‪PE " ZPX ! (1 Z ) PM‬‬

‫ﻭ‬
‫‪X‬‬ ‫‪M‬‬
‫‪P‬‬ ‫‪PM‬‬
‫"‪Z‬‬ ‫"‬ ‫"‪1 Z‬‬
‫‪X‬‬ ‫‪M‬‬ ‫‪X‬‬ ‫‪M‬‬
‫!‬ ‫!‬
‫‪PX PM‬‬ ‫‪P X PM‬‬

‫ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻓﻮﻕﺍﻟﺬﻛﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻟﻪ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮﺡ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ‬
‫ﻧﻤﻮﺩ‪:‬‬
‫‪!""#‬‬
‫‪!$ #‬‬ ‫‪# %٤٩٣‬‬
‫= ‪Z‬‬
‫‪!"" ### """#‬‬
‫‪+ %&#‬‬
‫‪!$ ##########‬‬

‫‪(١-Z) = (١ - %٤٩٣) =%٥٠٧‬‬

‫‪PE = %٤٩٣ (٢٤١) + %٥٠٧ (١٩٥) = ٢١٧/٧‬‬
‫‪٢٠٠‬‬
‫‪e # = ٢١٧/٧‬‬ ‫‪× ١٠٠ = ٩١/٩‬‬
‫‪e # - e = ٩١/٩ + ١٤/٩ =١٠٦/٨‬‬ ‫ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻟﻪ‬

‫ﻛﻪ ﺭﻗﻢ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻁ ﺑﻪ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﺑﺎﺯﺭﮔﺎﻧﻲ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺑﻪ ﺣﺴﺎﺏﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‬
‫ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺍﺿﺎﻓﻪ ﮔﺮﺩﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪:(GNP) .2% 1#3'#45 0( 6"#7,8( 9:";<=% (1-5‬‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺣﺴﺎﺏﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﻠﻲ ﻧﻜﺎﺗﻲ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺭﻋﺎﻳﺖ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺣﺎﺋﺰ ﺍﻫﻤﻴﺖ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫‪(١‬ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ‪ :‬ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺢ ﺩﻫﻨﺪﻩ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ‬
‫ﻧﻴﺴﺖ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺣﺎﻟﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻳﻜﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻓﺎﻛﺘﻮﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﻬﻢ ﺩﺭ ﻫﺮ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ‬
‫ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺳﺮﺍﻧﻪ ﻧﻤﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﻭﺿﻌﻴﺖ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪﺍﻱ ﺭﺍ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﻛﺮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫!‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪ (٢‬ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﺯ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻧﻤﻲﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪ :‬ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﮔﻔﺘﻪ ﺷﺪ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﺯ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺷﻮﻧﺪ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻣﻲﺭﺳﻨﺪ ﺍﻣﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻧﻤﻲﺷﻮﻧﺪ ﻫﻤﺎﻧﻨﺪ‬
‫ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺧﺎﻧﻢﻫﺎﻱ ﺧﺎﻧﻪﺩﺍﺭ ﻭ ﻏﻴﺮﻩ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (٣‬ﻣﻘﺎﻳﺴﻪ ﺑﻴﻦﺍﻟﻤﻠﻠﻲ ﺁﻣﺎﺭﻫﺎﻱ ‪ :GNP‬ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ‪ GNP‬ﺩﺭ ﻣﻘﺎﻳﺴﻪﻫﺎﻱ ﺑﻴﻦﺍﻟﻤﻠﻠﻲ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺑﺎ‬
‫ﺍﺣﺘﻴﺎﻁ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻣﺮﻭﺯﻩ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻭ ﻣﻘﺎﻳﺴﻪ ﺳﻄﻮﺡ ﺯﻧﺪﮔﻲ ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ‬
‫ﭘﻴﺸﺮﻓﺖ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺑﻜﺎﺭ ﻣﻲﺭﻭﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻣﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺭﻏﻢ ﻫﻤﺎﻫﻨﮕﻲﻫﺎﻳﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ‬
‫ﺑﻌﻀﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻮﺳﺴﻪﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺳﺎﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﻣﻠﻞ ﺩﺭ ﺟﻬﺖ ﻳﻚ ﺩﺳﺖ ﻛﺮﺩﻥ ﺭﻭﺵ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ‬
‫ﺣﺴﺎﺏﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺑﻜﺎﺭ ﻣﻲﺭﻭﺩ‪ ،‬ﺣﺴﺎﺑﻬﺎﻱ ﻣﻠﻲ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﺯ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺷﻤﻮﻝ ﺑﺎ ﻳﻜﺪﻳﮕﺮ‬
‫ﻣﺘﻔﺎﻭﺗﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﻣﺜﻼﹰ ﺩﺭ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻱ ﻛﻪ ﺭﻭﺵﻫﺎﻱ ﺳﻨﺘﻲ ﻣﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ ،‬ﻣﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﺯ‬
‫ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭﻫﺎ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﻣﻲﮔﻴﺮﺩ ﭼﻮﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻟﻪ ﻧﻤﻲﺷﻮﻧﺪ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺣﺴﺎﺏﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﻠﻲ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﻪ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻧﻴﺎﻳﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻣﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺟﻮﺍﻣﻊ ﭘﻴﺸﺮﻓﺘﻪﺗﺮ ﺍﻳﻨﮕﻮﻧﻪ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖﻫﺎ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ‬
‫ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﻟﺤﺎﻅ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (٤‬ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎﻱ ﺯﻳﺴﺖ ﻣﺤﻴﻄﻲ ﻭ ﺍﻧﺴﺎﻧﻲ‪ :‬ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎﻱ ﺯﻳﺴﺖ ﻣﺤﻴﻄﻲ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ‬
‫ﻧﻤﻲﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﺍﻣﺮﻭﺯﻩ ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ ﺭﻭﺍﻧﻲ ﻭ ﻛﺞﺭﻭﻱﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ ﻭ ﺍﻧﺤﺮﺍﻑﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺟﻮﺍﻣﻊ ﺳﻨﺘﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻓﺰﺍﻳﻨﺪﻩﺍﻱ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺗﺸﺨﻴﺺ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﮔﺮﭼﻪ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎﻳﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺧﺼﻮﺹ‬
‫ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺧﺖ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ ﻟﺤﺎﻅ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺍﻣﺎ ﺗﺮﻛﻴﺐ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﻣﻘﺎﻳﺴﻪﻫﺎﻱ ﺑﻴﻦﺍﻟﻤﻠﻠﻲ ﺣﺎﺋﺰ ﺍﻫﻤﻴﺖ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (٥‬ﻋﺪﻡ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﻛﻴﻔﻲ‪ :‬ﺭﺷﺪ ‪ GNP‬ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﻛﻴﻔﻲ ﺭﺍ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻧﻤﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪#‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪?>>@#>>4%‬‬
‫ﻓﺮﺽ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﺩﻭ ﻛﺎﻻﻱ ‪ Q1‬ﻭ ‪ Q2‬ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻣﻲﮔﺮﺩﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﺎﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫‪-١‬‬
‫ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺌﻮﺍﻻﺕ ﺫﻳﻞ ﭘﺎﺳﺦ ﺩﻫﻴﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪Q2‬‬ ‫‪P2‬‬ ‫‪Q1‬‬ ‫‪P1‬‬

‫‪١٠‬‬ ‫‪١٠‬‬ ‫‪٨‬‬ ‫‪١٢‬‬ ‫ﺳﺎﻝ ‪١‬‬

‫‪١١‬‬ ‫‪١٣‬‬ ‫‪١٠‬‬ ‫‪١٤‬‬ ‫ﺳﺎﻝ ‪٢‬‬

‫‪١٠‬‬ ‫‪١٣‬‬ ‫‪١٠‬‬ ‫‪١٥‬‬ ‫ﺳﺎﻝ ‪٣‬‬

‫‪٩‬‬ ‫‪١٤‬‬ ‫‪١١‬‬ ‫‪١٥‬‬ ‫ﺳﺎﻝ ‪٤‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻒ ـ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﺳﻤﻲ ﺩﺭ ﻫﺮ ﺳﺎﻝ؟‬

‫ﺏ ـ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻲ؟ )ﺳﺎﻝ ‪ ٢‬ﺳﺎﻝ ﭘﺎﻳﻪ(‬

‫ﻳﻚ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻓﺮﺿﻲ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺑﮕﻴﺮﻳﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﺳﻪ ﻛﺎﻻﻱ ﺗﺨﻢﻣﺮﻍ‪ ،‬ﺍﺳﺘﻴﻚ )ﮔﻮﺷﺖ(‬ ‫‪-٢‬‬
‫ﻭ ﻧﻮﺷﺎﺑﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﺫﻳﻞ ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻫﺮ ﻛﺎﻻ ﻭ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺩﻭ‬
‫ﺳﺎﻝ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪١٩٩٧‬‬ ‫‪١٩٨٧‬‬ ‫ﺳﺎﻝ‬

‫ﻗﻴﻤﺖ )ﺩﻻﺭ(‬ ‫ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺖ )ﺩﻻﺭ(‬ ‫ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‬ ‫ﻧﻮﻉ ﻛﺎﻻ‬
‫‪٣/١٠‬‬ ‫‪٧‬‬ ‫‪٢/٨٠‬‬ ‫‪١٠‬‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺘﻴﻚ )ﮔﻮﺷﺖ(‬

‫‪٠/٨٥‬‬ ‫‪١٣‬‬ ‫‪٠/٧٠‬‬ ‫‪١٠‬‬ ‫ﺗﺨﻢﻣﺮﻍ‬

‫‪٤/٥٠‬‬ ‫‪١١‬‬ ‫‪٤/٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٨‬‬ ‫ﻧﻮﺷﺎﺑﻪ‬

‫ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻓﺮﺿﻲ ﺩﺭ ﻫﺮ ﺳﺎﻝ ﻣﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺭﺍ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻴﺪ؛‬

‫ﺍﻟﻒ ـ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﺑﺮﺣﺴﺐ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺟﺎﺭﻱ )‪.(Nominal GDP‬‬

‫ﺏ ـ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﺑﺮﺣﺴﺐ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻲ )‪.(Real GDP‬‬
‫ﺝ ـ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺿﻤﻨﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ )‪.(GDP Deflator‬‬
‫ﺩ ـ ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ‪ GDP‬ﻭ ‪ GDP Deflator‬ﺑﻴﻦ ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎﻱ ‪ ١٩٨٧‬ﻭ ‪.١٩٩٧‬‬
 ‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻱ ‪ ١٠٠‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﻧﻔﺮ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻦ ﻛﺎﺭ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺭﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﻌﺪﺍﺩ‪ ٥٠ ،‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ‬ ‫‪-٣‬‬
‫ﻣﺸﻐﻮﻝ ﻛﺎﺭ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ‪ ١٠ ،‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﻧﻔﺮ ﺩﺭﺣﺎﻝ ﺟﺴﺘﺠﻮﻱ ﻛﺎﺭ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﻭ ‪ ١٠‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﻧﻔﺮ‬
‫ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺍﺯ ‪ ٢‬ﻣﺎﻩ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺟﺴﺘﺠﻮ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻛﺎﺭ ﺭﺍ ﻣﺘﻮﻗﻒ ﻛﺮﺩﻩﺍﻧﺪ ﻭ ﺑﺎﻗﻴﻤﺎﻧﺪﻩ ‪ ٣٠‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﻮﻥ‬
‫ﻧﻔﺮ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﻫﻴﭽﮕﻮﻧﻪ ﺗﻤﺎﻳﻠﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻛﺎﺭ ﻛﺮﺩﻥ ﻧﺪﺍﺭﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺗﻌﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻱ ﻛﺎﺭ‪،‬‬
‫ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻧﺮﺥ ﻣﺸﺎﺭﻛﺖ ﺭﺍ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﻓﺮﺿﻲ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺑﮕﻴﺮﻳﺪ‪:‬‬ ‫‪-٤‬‬

‫‪ ٢٠٠‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﺭﻳﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﺟﺎﺭﻩ‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫‪ ١٠٠‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﺭﻳﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺣﻘﻮﻕ ﺑﺎﺯﻧﺸﺴﺘﮕﻲ‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫‪ ٣٠٠‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﺭﻳﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺣﻖ ﺑﻴﻤﻪ ﻭ ﺑﺎﺯﻧﺸﺴﺘﮕﻲ ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺧﺘﻲ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﺣﻘﻮﻕﺑﮕﻴﺮﺍﻥ‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫‪ ٢٠٠‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﺭﻳﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﺯ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫‪ ٢٠٠٠‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﺭﻳﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫‪ ٣٠٠٠‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﺭﻳﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺣﻘﻮﻕ ﻭ ﺩﺳﺘﻤﺰﺩ‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫‪ ٥٠٠‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﺭﻳﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﻏﻴﺮﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫‪ ٦٠٠‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﺭﻳﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺑﺮ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺍﺷﺨﺎﺹ‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫‪ ١٨٠٠‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﺭﻳﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺳﻮﺩ ﺷﺮﻛﺖﻫﺎ‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫‪ ٨٠٠‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﺭﻳﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺳﻮﺩ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻧﺸﺪﻩ‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫‪ ٣٠٠‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﺭﻳﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺳﻮﺩ ﺑﻨﮕﺎﻩﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻧﻔﺮﺍﺩﻱ‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫‪ ١٠٠‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﺭﻳﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫‪ ٣٠٠‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﺭﻳﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺑﺮ ﺳﻮﺩ ﺷﺮﻛﺖﻫﺎ‬ ‫‪-‬‬

‫ﻃﺒﻖ ﺍﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻓﻮﻕ‪ ،‬ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ‪ ،‬ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ‪ ،‬ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻲ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ‬
‫ﺗﺼﺮﻑ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺷﺨﺼﻲ ﺭﺍ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ‪.‬‬

‫ﻛﺸﺎﻭﺭﺯﻱ ﮔﻨﺪﻡ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ ﻭ ﺁﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ‪ ١٠٠٠‬ﺭﻳﺎﻝ ﺑﻪ ﺁﺳﻴﺎﺑﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫‪-٥‬‬

‫ﻣﻲﻓﺮﻭﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺁﺳﻴﺎﺑﺎﻥ ﮔﻨﺪﻡ ﺭﺍ ﺁﺭﺩ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ ﻭ ﺁﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ‪ ٣٠٠٠‬ﺭﻳﺎﻝ ﺑﻪ ﻧﺎﻧﻮﺍ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻧﻮﺍ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻥ ﺁﺭﺩ‪ ،‬ﻧﺎﻥ ﺗﻬﻴﻪ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ ﻭ ﺁﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ‪ ٦٠٠٠‬ﺭﻳﺎﻝ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻬﻨﺪﺳﻲ ﻣﻲﻓﺮﻭﺷﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺁﻥ ﻣﻬﻨﺪﺱ ﻧﺎﻥ ﺭﺍ ﻣﻲﺧﻮﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻫﺮﻳﻚ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺍﻓﺰﻭﺩﻩ ﭼﻘﺪﺭ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ؟ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‬
‫ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ ﭼﻘﺪﺭ ﺍﺳﺖ؟‬

‫‪$‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﻟﺰﻭﻡ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺭﻭﺵ ﺍﻓﺰﻭﺩﻩ ﺑﻪ ﺟﺎﻱ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺭﺍ ﺗﺸﺮﻳﺢ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ؟‬ ‫‪-٦‬‬

‫ﺍﮔﺮ ﺩﺭ ﻳﻚ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻳﻚ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺧﺎﺹ ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺩﺭ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪،‬‬ ‫‪-٧‬‬
‫ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺍﺳﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﻭ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﺭﺍ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ؟‬
‫ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ )ﻳﺎ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ( = ‪ ٤٥٠٠‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﺎﺭﺩ ﺭﻳﺎﻝ‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ = ‪ ٤٩٠٠‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﺎﺭﺩ ﺭﻳﺎﻝ‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕﻫﺎﻱ ﻏﻴﺮﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ = ‪ ١٠٠‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﺎﺭﺩ ﺭﻳﺎﻝ‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﺯ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ = ‪ -١٨٠‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﺎﺭﺩ ﺭﻳﺎﻝ‬ ‫‪-‬‬

‫ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺳﺮﺍﻧﻪ ﺩﺭ ﮊﺍﭘﻦ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ‪ ١٩٩٤‬ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ‪ ٣٧,٩٦٤‬ﺩﻻﺭ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻫﻤﺎﻥ‬ ‫‪-٨‬‬
‫ﺳﺎﻝ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺳﺮﺍﻧﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ‪ ٨٩٣‬ﺩﻻﺭ ﺑﻮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻣﻘﺎﻳﺴﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺩﻭ‬
‫ﺭﻗﻢ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺭﺍﻳﻪ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺭﺍﺟﻊ ﺑﻪ ﻭﺿﻊ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺩﻭ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﻳﻜﺪﻳﮕﺮ ﭼﻪ ﻧﻘﺎﻁ‬
‫ﻗﻮﺕ ﻭ ﺿﻌﻔﻲ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ؟‬

‫ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﻟﺰﻭﻡ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎﻱ ﺣﺴﺎﺏﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺑﺮﺣﺴﺐ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ‬ ‫‪-٩‬‬
‫ﺭﺍ ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺢ ﺩﻫﻴﺪ؟‬

‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻣﻔﺮﻭﺽ ﺍﺳﺖ‪:‬‬ ‫‪-١٠‬‬

‫‪٧٠‬‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫‪٤٦٥‬‬ ‫ﺩﺳﺘﻤﺰﺩ‬
‫‪١٠‬‬ ‫ﺑﻬﺮﻩ‬ ‫‪٥٠‬‬ ‫ﺍﺟﺎﺭﻩ‬
‫‪٢٠‬‬ ‫ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺑﺮ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺷﺮﻛﺖﻫﺎ‬ ‫‪٤٥٠‬‬ ‫ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺧﺼﻮﺻﻲ‬
‫‪١٠‬‬ ‫ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺑﺮ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺍﺷﺨﺎﺹ‬ ‫‪١٣٠‬‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺩﻭﻟﺘﻲ‬
‫‪١٥‬‬ ‫ﺣﻘﻮﻕ ﺑﺎﺯﻧﺸﺴﺘﮕﻲ‬ ‫‪١٠٠‬‬ ‫ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫‪٥‬‬ ‫ﺳﻮﺩ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻧﺸﺪﻩ ﺷﺮﻛﺖﻫﺎ‬ ‫‪٤٠‬‬ ‫ﺳﻮﺩ‬
‫‪٢‬‬ ‫ﺟﺮﺍﻳﻢ ﻭ ﺗﺨﻠﻔﺎﺕ‬ ‫‪١٢٠‬‬ ‫ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ‬
‫‪-٥٠‬‬ ‫ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﺯ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ‬ ‫‪٧٠‬‬ ‫ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕﻫﺎﻱ ﻏﻴﺮﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ‬
‫‪٣٠‬‬ ‫ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺧﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻟﻲ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮﻛﺖﻫﺎ‬ ‫‪٤٠‬‬ ‫ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﺍﺳﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬
‫‪١٠‬‬ ‫ﻳﺎﺭﺍﻧﻪ ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺧﺘﻲ‬
‫ﻣﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﺳﺖ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻒ ـ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻲ )ﺑﻪ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻭ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ( ﺍﺯ ﺭﻭﺵ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎ‬

‫‪%‬‬
 ‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺏ ـ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻲ )ﺑﻪ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻭ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ( ﺍﺯ ﺭﻭﺵ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪﻫﺎ‬

‫ﺝ ـ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ‪ .‬ﺗﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺩﻭ ﺩﺭ ﭼﻴﺴﺖ؟ )ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺢ ﺩﻫﻴﺪ(‬
‫ﺩ ـ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺗﺼﺮﻑ‬

‫ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻱ ‪ ٣٠‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺑﺰﺭﮔﺘﺮ ﺍﺯ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﺁﻥ ﺍﺳﺖ‪،‬‬ ‫‪-١١‬‬
‫ﻋﻠﺖ ﺭﺍ ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺢ ﺩﻫﻴﺪ؟‬

‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪﺍﻱ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺑﮕﻴﺮﻳﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺳﻪ ﻛﺎﻻﻱ ﭘﻮﺷﺎﻙ‪ ،‬ﻣﺎﺷﻴﻦ ﻭ ﺧﻮﺩﻛﺎﺭ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-١٢‬‬
‫ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﻭ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻫﺮﻳﻚ ﺍﺯ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺳﺎﻝ ‪ ٦٩‬ﻭ ‪ ٨٠‬ﺩﺭ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺍﺭﺍﻳﻪ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪:‬‬

‫ﻗﻴﻤﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ‬
‫‪٨٠‬‬ ‫‪٦٩‬‬ ‫‪٨٠‬‬ ‫‪٦٩‬‬
‫ﭘﻮﺷﺎﻙ‬ ‫‪١٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٢٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٢٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٥٠٠‬‬
‫ﻣﺎﺷﻴﻦ‬ ‫‪٥,٠٠٠‬‬ ‫‪١٠,٠٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٣٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٨٠٠‬‬
‫ﺧﻮﺩﻛﺎﺭ‬ ‫‪٣٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٤٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٤٠٠‬‬ ‫‪١,٠٠٠‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻒ ـ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺟﺎﺭﻱ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ‪ ٨٠‬ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ؟‬

‫ﺏ ـ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻲ ﭘﺎﺷﻪ ﻭ ﻻﺳﭙﻴﺮﺯ ﺭﺍ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﻭ ﺑﺮﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ‬
‫ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺩﺭ ﺑﻨﺪ ﺍﻟﻒ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮ ﺣﺴﺐ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ؟‬

‫&‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪: &'() *% *+,- .-/,0 ! 1"&234/ 567 1&8*9:3- ;99<= >,?( : !" #$%‬‬
‫ﻫﻤﺎﻥ ﮔﻮﻧﻪ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺧﺮﺩ‪ ،‬ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻭ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻳﻚ ﻛﺎﻻ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻭ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺭﺍ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ‬
‫ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﮕﻮﺳﺎﺯﻱ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ ﻫﺪﻑ‪ ،‬ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﺳﻄﺢ ﺍﺷﺘﻐﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ‬
‫ﺗﺮﺍﺯ ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺧﺖﻫﺎ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻛﻠﻲ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﺳﻪ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻛﺎﻻ ﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻱ‬
‫ﻛﺎﺭ ﻭ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﮕﻮﺳﺎﺯﻱ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ‪ ،‬ﻫﺪﻑ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ‬
‫ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺍﺷﺎﺭﻩ ﺩﺭ ﭼﺎﺭﭼﻮﺏ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺰﺑﻮﺭ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﺑﺘﺪﺍ‬
‫ﻻﺯﻡ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺑﺮﺧﻲ ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻭﻟﻴﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪:@98&A- BC*% DE*<= (2-1‬‬

‫ﺗﺌﻮﺭﻱ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ :١‬ﺑﻴﺎﻥ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﻋﻠﺖ ﻭ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻟﻲ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺩﻭ ﻳﺎ ﭼﻨﺪ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ؛ ﻫﻤﺎﻧﻨﺪ‬
‫ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺗﻮﺭﻡ ﻭ ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻱ ﻭ ﻏﻴﺮﻩ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺪﻝ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ :٢‬ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﻪﺍﻱ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻱ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﻋﻠﺖ ﻭ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻟﻲ‬
‫ﺑﺎ ﻳﻜﺪﻳﮕﺮ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ )ﻳﻚ ﻣﺪﻝ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻣﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻳﻚ ﻳﺎ ﭼﻨﺪ ﺗﺌﻮﺭﻱ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺭﺍ‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺑﺮ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ(‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﺩﺭﻭﻥﺯﺍ‪ :٣‬ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ﺁﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﻣﺪﻝ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﺑﺮﻭﻥﺯﺍ‪ :٤‬ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ ﻳﺎ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎﻱ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎﻳﻲ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺧﺎﺭﺝ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺪﻝ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﻧﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪D=a-dp‬‬
‫‪S=b+zp‬‬

‫ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﺩﺳﺘﮕﺎﻩ ﺩﻭ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﻪ ﻭ ﺩﻭ ﻣﺠﻬﻮﻝ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ‬

‫)‪ ،Y = f ( X ، M ، Z‬ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎﻱ ‪ M ،X‬ﻭ ‪Z‬‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻭ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ﺩﺭﻭﻥﺯﺍ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺪﻝ‬
‫ﺑﺮﻭﻥﺯﺍ ﻭ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ‪ Y‬ﺩﺭﻭﻥﺯﺍ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪1 - Economic Theory‬‬

‫‪2 - Economic Model‬‬
‫‪3 - Endogenous variables‬‬
‫‪4 - Exogenous variables‬‬

‫!‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎﻱ ﺭﻭﺍﻧﻪ‪ ١‬ﻭ ﺍﻧﺒﺎﺭﻩ‪:٢‬‬

‫ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎﻱ ﺭﻭﺍﻧﻪ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎﻳﻲ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻳﻚ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻩﮔﻴﺮﻱ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﻧﺪ ﻭ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻣﺘﻮﺍﻟﻲ ﻭ ﭘﻴﻮﺳﺘﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺍﺗﻔﺎﻕ ﻣﻲﺍﻓﺘﻨﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﺍﻧﺒﺎﺭﻩ‪ ،‬ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎﻳﻲ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻳﻚ ﻟﺤﻈﻪ ﺍﺯ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻩﮔﻴﺮﻱ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﻧﺪ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻭﺍﻗﻊ‬
‫ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻱ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺯﻣﺎﻧﻲ ﻧﻴﺴﺘﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﻭ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ‬
‫ﻣﻠﻲ »ﺭﻭﺍﻧﻪ« ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺻﻮﺭﺗﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﻣﻠﻲ ﻭ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺍﺷﺘﻐﺎﻝ‬
‫»ﺍﻧﺒﺎﺭﻩ« ﻣﺤﺴﻮﺏ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﻧﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻛﺎﻻ ﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ‪ :‬ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﻫﻨﮕﺎﻣﻲ ﺍﺗﻔﺎﻕ ﻣﻲﺍﻓﺘﺪ‬
‫ﻛﻪ ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺑﺎ ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮ ﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺧﺮﺩ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺁﻥ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﻩ ﻫﺮ ﭼﻪ ﺭﺍ ﻛﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﻓﺮﻭﺵ ﺭﺳﺎﻧﺪﻩ ﻭ ﻣﺼﺮﻑﻛﻨﻨﺪﻩ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻫﺮ ﭼﻪ ﺭﺍ ﻛﻪ ﺧﻮﺍﺳﺘﻪ ﺧﺮﻳﺪﺍﺭﻱ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﺎ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﺷﺪﻥ ﺗﻌﺎﺭﻳﻒ ﺍﻭﻟﻴﻪ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﺑﺘﺪﺍ ﺗﺼﻮﻳﺮ ﻛﻠﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ ﺍﺭﺍﻳﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ‬
‫ﺗﺼﻮﻳﺮ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲﻫﺎﻱ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻭ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﻣﻲﮔﺮﺩﺩ‪ .‬ﻫﻤﺎﻧﻨﺪ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬
‫ﺧﺮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﺯ ﺑﺮﺁﻳﻨﺪ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻞ ﻭ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺷﻮﻧﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻔﻜﻴﻚ ﻫﺮﻳﻚ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪ :٣567 "&234/ F" .7 1&G&H= ! IG*0 (2-2‬ﻫﻤﺎﻧﻨﺪ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺧﺮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺳﻄﺢ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﻭ‬

‫ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ ﺍﺯ ﺗﻘﺎﻃﻊ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻞ ﻭ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﻣﻲﺁﻳﺪ‪ .‬ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪(٢-١‬‬
‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﻭﺿﻌﻴﺖ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺭﺍ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﻧﻘﻄﻪ ‪ E‬ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻭ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﺑﺎ ﻳﻜﺪﻳﮕﺮ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮ‬
‫ﺷﺪﻩ ﻭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ‪ PE‬ﻭ ‪ YE‬ﺑﺪﺳﺖ ﻣﻲﺁﻳﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪1- Flow‬‬
‫‪2- Stock‬‬
‫‪3 - Aggregate Demand and Supply‬‬

‫"‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫(‪567 "&234/ F" .7 1&G&H= ! IG*0 :(2-1) F/",J‬‬

‫‪P‬‬ ‫‪S‬‬
‫‪E‬‬
‫‪PE‬‬

‫‪D‬‬
‫‪YE‬‬ ‫‪Y‬‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ ﻫﺮ ﻳﻚ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲﻫﺎﻱ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﻭ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻞ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭ‬

‫ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺢ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﻗﺴﻤﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺑﻌﺪﻱ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺰﺑﻮﺭ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻔﺴﻴﺮ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ‬
‫ﻣﻲﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪: .7 1&G&H= (2-2-1‬‬

‫ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻲ)‪ (GDP‬ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺩﺭ ﻳﻚ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺩﺭ ﻳﻚ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﻣﻌﻴﻦ‪ ،‬ﻛﻞ‬
‫ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ ﻣﺮﺩﻡ‪ ،‬ﺗﺠﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﻭ‬
‫ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻴﺎﻥ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺧﺮﻳﺪ ﺁﻥ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﺭﻳﺰﻱ ﻛﺮﺩﻩﺍﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻗﺴﻤﺖ ﻗﺒﻠﻲ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﮔﺮﺩﻳﺪ‪،‬‬
‫‪ GDP‬ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺑﻪ ﺷﻴﻮﻩ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﻣﻲﺁﻳﺪ‪.‬‬
‫‪GDP = C + G + I + X - M‬‬
‫ﻻﺯﻡ ﺑﻪ ﺫﻛﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ‪ GDP‬ﺑﺮ ﺣﺴﺐ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻲ ﻛﻞ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻳﻲ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻳﻚ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﻳﻚ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻛﻠﻴﻪ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ‪:‬‬
‫)‪ = AD١ = C + G + I + ( X – M‬ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ‬

‫‪1- Aggregate Demand‬‬

‫‪#‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪:.7 1&G&H= BK?K- -‬‬

‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺑﺎ ﻓﺮﺽ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ‬
‫ﺑﻮﺩﻥ ﺳﺎﻳﺮ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪ .‬ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺯﻳﺮ‪ ،‬ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﻓﺮﺿﻲ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺭﺍ‬
‫ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪.‬‬

‫(‪"&234/ F" .7 1&G&H= BK?K- (2-2) F/",J‬‬

‫‪ ،P‬ﺳﻄﺢ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ‬

‫‪P3‬‬
‫‪P2‬‬
‫‪P1‬‬

‫‪ ،Y‬ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‬
‫‪Y3 Y2 Y1‬‬

‫ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻛﻠﻲ ﭼﻬﺎﺭ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﺳﺎﺳﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﺭﺍ ﺗﺤﺖ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪:‬‬
‫‪ : LJ94 MNO (1‬ﺳﻄﺢ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﺑﺎ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﻣﻌﻜﻮﺱ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ‪ ،‬ﻫﺮﭼﻪ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪ ،‬ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻳﺎﻓﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﭼﺮﺍ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﻲ ﻳﺎﺑﺪ ﻭ ﺍﺻﻮﻻﹰُ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﻧﺰﻭﻟﻲ ﺑﻮﺩﻥ ﺷﻴﺐ‬
‫ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﭼﻴﺴﺖ‪ ،‬ﺑﺤﺜﻲ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻗﺴﻤﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺑﻌﺪﻱ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻣﻔﺼﻞ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ‬
‫ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪ :P/F&R3(/ (2‬ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻧﺘﻈﺎﺭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻧﻘﺶ ﻣﺆﺛﺮﻱ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﻳﻚ‬
‫ﻓﻀﺎﻱ ﺗﻮﺭﻣﻲ ﻛﻪ ﻣﺮﺩﻡ ﺍﻧﺘﻈﺎﺭ ﺩﺍﺭﻧﺪ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪ ،‬ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﺳﻤﺖ ﺑﺎﻻ ﻣﻨﺘﻘﻞ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺗﺸﺪﻳﺪ ﺭﻭﻧﺪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺸﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﻣﻲﮔﺮﺩﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪$%‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪ :BS&- ! BS,T 1&8LO&9O (3‬ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﭘﻮﻟﻲ ﻭ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺟﻤﻠﻪ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﻃﺮﻑ‬

‫ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻭ ﺟﺎﺑﺠﺎﻳﻲ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﺑﺎ ﻧﺤﻮﻩ‬
‫ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﻭ ﭘﻮﻟﻲ ﺑﺮ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﺩﺭ ﻗﺴﻤﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺑﻌﺪﻱ ﺑﺤﺚ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪ :5&9UF&C (4‬ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﺍﺯ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻴﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﺑﺨﺶ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻲ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ )‪(X-M‬‬

‫ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﺑﺪ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻻ ﻭ ﺳﻤﺖ ﺭﺍﺳﺖ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻜﺲ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻋﻤﻮﻣﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ ﻭ ﺍﮔﺮ ﺳﺎﻳﺮ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ‬
‫ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻛﻨﺪ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﺟﺎﺑﺠﺎ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪:١.7 IG*0(2-2-2‬‬

‫ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﺷﺪﻩ‪ ،‬ﺑﻪ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﻧﻬﺎﺩﻩﻫﺎﻱ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪﻱ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ‬
‫ﺑﺎ ﺗﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﮊﻱ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺩﺭ ﻳﻚ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺑﺴﺘﮕﻲ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺧﺮﺩ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﺷﺪ ﻛﻪ ﭼﮕﻮﻧﻪ ﺑﺎ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ )‪ (K‬ﻭ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻱ ﻛﺎﺭ )‪ (L‬ﻭ ﺍﺯ‬
‫ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﻓﺮﺁﻳﻨﺪ ﺣﺪﺍﻛﺜﺮ ﺳﺎﺯﻱ ﺳﻮﺩ ﺑﻨﮕﺎﻩﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻣﻲﮔﺮﺩﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ﻛﻞ ‪ GDP‬ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺎ ﻛﻤﻚ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ‬
‫ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ )‪ ...‬ﻭ ‪ T‬ﻭ ‪ L‬ﻭ ‪ Y = f ( K‬ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﻧﻤﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ‪ Y‬ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‪ K ،‬ﺍﻧﺒﺎﺭﻩ‬
‫ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ‪ L ،‬ﻧﻬﺎﺩﻩ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻱ ﻛﺎﺭ ﻭ ‪ T‬ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﮊﻱ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻞ‬
‫ﺭﺍ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﻛﺮﺩ‪:‬‬
‫‪..VW&%B- "&234/ F" >VW V9S,= P&-VC ! &8X&7 .7 BS&EF YZF/ [.7 IG*0‬‬

‫‪ -‬ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻞ ‪ :‬ﻛﻞ ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ‪ GDP‬ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎ‬
‫ﻓﺮﺽ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺑﻮﺩﻥ ﺗﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﮊﻱ ﻭ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ )ﺍﻧﺴﺎﻧﻲ ﻭ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﻧﺴﺎﻧﻲ( ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪ .‬ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪،(٢-٣‬‬
‫ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻞ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺭﺍ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫‪- Aggregate Supply‬‬

‫&‪$‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫(‪"&234/ F" .7 IG*0 BK?K- :(2-3)F/",J‬‬

‫‪P‬‬
‫‪AS‬‬
‫‪P2‬‬
‫‪P1‬‬
‫‪P0‬‬

‫‪GDP‬‬
‫‪GDP0 GDP1 GDP2‬‬

‫‪:IG*0 BK?K- *% *+\- .-/,0‬‬

‫‪ -١‬ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻛﺎﻻ‪ :‬ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﺑﻴﻦ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻭ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻛﺎﻻ‪ ،‬ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﻣﺜﺒﺘﻲ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ‬
‫)‪ (٢-٣‬ﻣﻼﺣﻈﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻣﺘﺪﺍﺩ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻞ ﺣﺮﻛﺖ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻴﻢ ﻛﺮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ‪ ،‬ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺣﺮﻛﺖ ﺭﻭﻱ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -٢‬ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‪ :‬ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﺑﻪ ﻧﺤﻮﻱ ﻛﻪ‬
‫ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﭼﭗ ﻭ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻜﺲ ﻣﻲﮔﺮﺩﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -٣‬ﺑﻬﺮﻩﻭﺭﻱ ﻧﻬﺎﺩﻩﻫﺎﻱ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻱ ﻛﺎﺭ ﻭ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ‪ :‬ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺑﻬﺮﻩﻭﺭﻱ ﻧﻬﺎﺩﻩﻫﺎﻱ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ‬
‫ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻞ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﺭﺍﺳﺖ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻜﺲ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -٤‬ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻭ ﺩﺳﺘﺮﺳﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻬﺎﺩﻩﻫﺎﻱ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‪ :‬ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺩﺭ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻧﻬﺎﺩﻩﻫﺎﻱ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ‬
‫ﺟﺎﺑﺠﺎﻳﻲ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﺑﻪ ﮔﻮﻧﻪﺍﻱ ﻛﻪ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻭ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺩﺳﺘﺮﺳﻲ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﻧﻬﺎﺩﻩ ﻛﺎﺭ ﻭ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﭼﭗ ﻣﻲﮔﺮﺩﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -٥‬ﺍﻧﺘﻈﺎﺭﺍﺕ‪ :‬ﺍﻧﺘﻈﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪﻛﻨﻨﺪﮔﺎﻥ ﺍﺯ ﺭﻭﻧﺪ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺟﺎﺑﺠﺎﻳﻲ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ‬
‫ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫'‪$‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪ -٦‬ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﮊﻱ‪ :‬ﺑﻬﺒﻮﺩ ﻭ ﭘﻴﺸﺮﻓﺖ ﺗﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﮊﻱ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﺭﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻜﺲ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪:P&-VC ! X&7 F/Z&% F" ]"&<= (2-2-3‬‬

‫ﺑﺎ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﺷﺪﻥ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲﻫﺎﻱ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻞ ﻭ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ‪ ،‬ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ‬
‫ﻭ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺁﻭﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-٤‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺭﺍ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪&'( ")*+,! " -")./ :(2-4) !"#$%‬‬

‫‪P‬‬
‫‪S‬‬
‫‪E‬‬
‫‪PE‬‬

‫‪D‬‬
‫‪YE‬‬ ‫)‪Y(GDPR‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ ﻓﻮﻕ‪ ،‬ﻧﻘﻄﻪ ‪ E‬ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺭﺍ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ ‪ PE‬ﻭ ‪ YE‬ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻋﻤﻮﻣﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﻋﺪﺩﻱ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ‬
‫ﺭﻭﺷﻦ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﻥ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﻛﻤﻚ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﻋﺪﺩﻱ‪ :‬ﻓﺮﺽ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺍﺑﻊ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻭ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻣﻮﺍﺟﻪ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬
‫‪P D ! 100 – 2‬‬ ‫‪GDPDR‬‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ‪:‬‬
‫‪P S ! 20 + 0.5‬‬ ‫‪GDPSR‬‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻞ‪:‬‬
‫ﺑﺎ ﺣﻞ ﺩﺳﺘﮕﺎﻩ ﺩﻭ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﻪ ﻭ ﺩﻭ ﻣﺠﻬﻮﻝ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻭ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ‬
‫‪ GDPDR ! GDPSR ! GDP E‬ﻭ ‪PS ! PD ! P E‬‬ ‫ﺁﻭﺭﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ‪ ،‬ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮﺡ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﻣﻲﺁﻳﺪ‪:‬‬
‫‪GDP=32 , P =36‬‬

‫‪$‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪:&'( ")*+,! " &)12 30% (2-3‬‬

‫ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺗﺠﺰﻳﻪ ﻭ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ ﻧﻘﺶ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﺣﺎﺋﺰ ﺍﻫﻤﻴﺘﻲ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻛﻠﻲ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺑﻪ ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ ﻣﺪﺕ ﻭ ﺑﻠﻨﺪ ﻣﺪﺕ ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ ﻫﺮ ﻳﻚ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻮﺍﺭﺩ‬
‫ﻣﺰﺑﻮﺭ ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺢ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ ﻣﺪﺕ‪ :١‬ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ ﻣﺪﺕ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ ﺯﻣﺎﻧﻲ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻧﻬﺎﺩﻩﻫﺎﻱ‬
‫ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺧﺼﻮﺻﺎﹰ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻱ ﻛﺎﺭ ﻛﺎﻣﻼﹰ ﺍﻧﻌﻄﺎﻑﭘﺬﻳﺮ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ )ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﭼﺴﺒﻨﺪﻩ(‪. ٢‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ ﻣﺪﺕ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻩﺍﻱ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ ﺗﺎ ﻛﺎﺭﮔﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﺘﻮﺍﻧﻨﺪ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻩ ﺗﻮﺭﻡ‪ ،‬ﺳﻄﺢ‬
‫ﺩﺳﺘﻤﺰﺩﻫﺎﻱ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺎﻻ ﺑﺒﺮﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺍﺻﻄﻼﺣﺎﹰ ﺩﺳﺘﻤﺰﺩﻫﺎ ﻳﺎ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﻛﻢ ﺗﻌﺪﻳﻞ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﭼﺴﺒﻨﺪﻩ ﻭ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ‪ ،‬ﺩﺳﺘﻤﺰﺩﻫﺎ ﻣﺘﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺑﺎ ﺳﻄﺢ‬
‫ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻛﺎﻻ ﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﻧﻤﻲﺗﻮﺍﻧﻨﺪ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺩﻫﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻣﺮ‪ ،‬ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻛﺎﺭﮔﺮﺍﻥ ﺍﺯ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﻫﻨﭽﻨﻴﻦ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻧﻬﺎﺩﻩﻫﺎﻱ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪﻱ ﻳﺎ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺍﺳﺖ‬
‫ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﻛﻤﺘﺮ ﺍﺯ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺩﺭ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﻨﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﺠﺎﻳﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻞ‪ ،‬ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮﻱ ﺍﺯ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺣﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺳﻄﺢ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺑﺎ ﻓﺮﺽ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺑﻮﺩﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻧﻬﺎﺩﻩﻫﺎﻱ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪﻱ‪ ،‬ﺗﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﮊﻱ ﻭ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ‬
‫ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ )ﺍﻧﺴﺎﻧﻲ ﻭ ﻏﻴﺮﺍﻧﺴﺎﻧﻲ( ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﻟﺬﺍ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﺗﺤﺖ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ ﻫﺮ ﻳﻚ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲﻫﺎ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺯﻣﺎﻧﻲ ﺁﻥ ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺢ‬
‫ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪:٢456#/ 7#06)8 9:; < =41 4>?8 @ABC D>E>1 -‬‬

‫ﻭﻳﮋﮔﻲ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺍﺯ‪:‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻒ ـ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻛﺎﻻ ﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺩﺳﺘﻤﺰﺩﻫﺎﻱ ﭘﻮﻟﻲ ﻭ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪﻱ‬
‫ﺑﻪ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﻳﻜﺴﺎﻥ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ‪ ،‬ﺳﻄﺢ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﻧﺴﺒﻲ )ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ‪/‬‬
‫ﺳﻄﺢ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ( ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫‪1- Short run‬‬

‫‪2 - Sticky Prices‬‬
‫‪2- Potential Long-run Level of GDP‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺏ ـ ﻧﻬﺎﺩﻩﻫﺎﻱ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪﻱ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ‬
‫ﻣﻲﮔﻴﺮﻧﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺝ ـ ﺗﻤﺎﻡ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺭﻧﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﻭﻳﮋﮔﻲﻫﺎ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﺗﺎ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﻱ ﻧﻴﺎﺑﺪ‪ .‬ﭼﺮﺍ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺯ ﻳﻚ‬
‫ﻃﺮﻑ ﻧﻬﺎﺩﻩﻫﺎﻱ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪﻱ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺍﺷﺘﻐﺎﻝ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻑ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ‪ ،‬ﻫﺮ ﮔﻮﻧﻪ‬
‫ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﺩﻗﻴﻘﺎﹰ ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﺎﻥ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻧﻬﺎﺩﻩﻫﺎﻱ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪﻱ ﻣﻨﻌﻜﺲ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﻫﻴﭻ ﺍﻧﮕﻴﺰﻩﺍﻱ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪﻛﻨﻨﺪﻩ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ‬
‫ﻧﺨﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪ .‬ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻞ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ‪ ،‬ﻫﻤﺎﻧﮕﻮﻧﻪ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-٥‬ﺗﺮﺳﻴﻢ‬
‫ﺷﺪﻩ‪ ،‬ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﻋﻤﻮﺩﻱ ﺗﺒﺪﻳﻞ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪=41 4>?8 " M( @ABC D>E>1 :(2-5) !"#$%‬‬

‫‪P‬‬ ‫‪L.S‬‬

‫‪GDP‬‬
‫‪GDP‬‬

‫‪١‬‬
‫‪((DK5;'(#L% -41) ")*+,! BHIJF):.%! G$5, < 7"); -41) =41 4>?8 -")./ -‬‬

‫ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ ،(٢-٦‬ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﺳﻴﻚ ﺭﺍ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪ .‬ﻻﺯﻡ ﺑﻪ ﺫﻛﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ‬
‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﺩﺍﻧﺎﻥ ﻛﻼﺳﻴﻚ ﺍﻋﺘﻘﺎﺩ ﺩﺍﺭﻧﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻫﻤﻮﺍﺭﻩ ﺩﺭ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺍﺷﺘﻐﺎﻝ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺣﺎﻟﺖ‪ ،‬ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﮔﻔﺘﻪ ﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻞ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﻋﻤﻮﺩﻱ ﺗﺒﺪﻳﻞ ﻭ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﺳﻄﺢ‬
‫ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺭﺍ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪1- Full employment Equilibrium‬‬

‫!‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪N5;'( ")*+,! =414>?8 -")./ !"#$% :(2-6) !"#$%‬‬

‫‪P‬‬ ‫‪LS‬‬

‫‪P1‬‬
‫‪AD1‬‬

‫‪GDP‬‬
‫‪GDP‬‬

‫‪:=41 7)/#( @ABC D>E>1‬‬

‫ﻫﻤﺎﻧﮕﻮﻧﻪ ﻛﻪ ﮔﻔﺘﻪ ﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ ﻣﺪﺕ ﺩﻭﺭﻩﺍﻱ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﺍﻧﻌﻄﺎﻑﭘﺬﻳﺮ ﻧﻴﺴﺘﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ‬
‫ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻭ ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﺍﺳﺖ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻒ( ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻧﻌﻄﺎﻑﭘﺬﻳﺮﻱ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ‪ :‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺍﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﻭ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻧﻬﺎﺩﻩﻫﺎﻱ‬
‫ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪﻱ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻣﺎ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺑﻴﺶ ﺍﺯ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪﻱ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪﻱ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻤﻞ ﻧﻴﺎﻣﺪﻩ ﻭ ﺍﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‬
‫ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻞ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﻃﺒﻖ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-٧‬ﺻﻌﻮﺩﻱ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪)TG$5, M1)( SBHIJF):.%! O4C PH!BR " M( @ABC D>E>1 :(2-7) !"#$%‬‬

‫‪P‬‬ ‫‪S‬‬
‫‪PE‬‬

‫‪AD‬‬
‫‪E‬‬
‫‪Y‬‬
‫)‪Y(GDPR‬‬

‫"‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻞ ﻭ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﻫﺮ ﺩﻭ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﻫﻤﺰﻣﺎﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻭ‬
‫ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺏ( ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻧﻌﻄﺎﻑﭘﺬﻳﺮﻱ ﻣﻄﻠﻖ‪ :‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﻭ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻧﻬﺎﺩﻩﻫﺎﻱ‬
‫ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪﻱ ﺧﺼﻮﺻﺎﹰ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻱ ﻛﺎﺭ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﺯ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻭ‬
‫ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻱ ﻧﻬﺎﺩﻩﻫﺎﻱ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪﻱ‪ ،‬ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﻫﻴﭽﮕﻮﻧﻪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺸﻲ ﺩﺭ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻧﻬﺎﺩﻩﻫﺎ ﻭ‬
‫ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺭﺍ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺩﻫﺪ‪ .‬ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻭﺿﻌﻴﺖ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-٨‬ﺗﺮﺳﻴﻢ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫‪)TG$5, U?:1 SBHIJF):.%! O4C PH!BR " M( @ABC D>E>1 :(2-8) !"#$%‬‬

‫‪P‬‬

‫‪E‬‬
‫‪P‬‬
‫‪AD‬‬

‫‪GDP‬‬

‫ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺣﺎﻟﺖ‪ ،‬ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺭﺍ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﺪﻭﻥ‬
‫ﻫﻴﭽﮕﻮﻧﻪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺸﻲ ﺩﺭ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺭﺍ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺩﺍﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺪﻝ ﺗﺤﺖ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ »ﻣﺪﻝ‬
‫ﻛﻴﻨﺮﻱ« ﻣﺸﻬﻮﺭ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻻﺯﻡ ﺑﻪ ﺫﻛﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺟﺎﻥﻣﻴﻨﺎﺭﺩﻛﻴﻨﺰ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺤﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻱ ﻛﻪ‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ‪ ١٩٣٠‬ﺍﻳﺠﺎﺩ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺑﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﺩ ﺷﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﺯ ﻧﻈﺮﻳﻪ ﻛﻼﺳﻴﻚﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻧﻈﺮﻳﻪ ﻣﻌﺮﻭﻑ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ‬
‫ﻣﺒﻨﻲ ﺑﺮ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ »ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ«‪ ،‬ﻣﻄﺮﺡ ﺳﺎﺧﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﺘﻪ ﻫﺮ ﻳﻚ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﺩﺍﻧﺎﻥ ﺩﺭ ﭼﻬﺎﺭﭼﻮﺏ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺧﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺑﻪ ﻳﻜﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲﻫﺎﻱ‬
‫ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺤﺚ ﺍﻋﺘﻘﺎﺩ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﻛﻼﺳﻴﻚﻫﺎ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺸﻜﻠﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻧﺎﻡ ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻱ‬
‫ﻣﻮﺍﺟﻪ ﻧﺒﻮﺩ ﻓﺮﺽ ﺍﺷﺘﻐﺎﻝ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﺪ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﻛﻴﻨﺰ ﻛﻪ‬
‫ﻣﺸﻜﻞ ﺣﺎﺩ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻱ ﺑﻮﺩ ﻓﺮﺽ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﺷﺘﻐﺎﻝ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺪﻝﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬
‫ﻟﺤﺎﻅ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫‪#‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺗﻤﺎﻣﻲ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲﻫﺎ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﭼﻬﺎﺭﭼﻮﺏ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-٩‬ﻳﻜﺠﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺼﻮﻳﺮ ﻛﺸﻴﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪M( @ABC W?+X1 -)KR! :(2-9) !"#$%‬‬

‫‪P‬‬

‫‪E3‬‬ ‫‪AD5‬‬
‫‪E2‬‬
‫‪AD4‬‬
‫‪E1‬‬
‫‪AD2 AD3‬‬
‫‪AD1‬‬
‫‪GDP‬‬
‫‪GDPR‬‬ ‫‪GDPFN‬‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ‪ ،‬ﻧﻘﻄﻪ ‪ E1‬ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ ﻣﺪﺕ ﻭ ﻧﻘﻄﻪ ‪ E3‬ﻳﻚ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺑﻠﻨﺪ ﻣﺪﺕ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ‬
‫ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ ﻣﺪﺕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻣﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻤﺘﺮ ﻳﺎ ﻣﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺑﻠﻨﺪ ﻣﺪﺕ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻫﻨﮕﺎﻣﻲ ﻛﻪ‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺑﻠﻨﺪ ﻣﺪﺕ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ ،‬ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ ﻣﺪﺕ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺑﻠﻨﺪ ﻣﺪﺕ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﻜﺘﻪ ﺣﺎﺋﺰ ﺍﻫﻤﻴﺖ ﺁﻥ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻫﻤﻮﺍﺭﻩ ﺍﺟﺮﺍﻱ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ‬
‫ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻋﻤﻠﻲ ﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﻣﺪﻝ ﺳﺎﺩﻩ ﻛﻴﻨﺰﻱ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺭﺍ‬
‫ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺩﺍﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺣﺎﻟﻲ ﻛﻪ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻛﻼﺳﻴﻚﻫﺎ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺳﻄﺢ‬
‫ﻋﻤﻮﻣﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪:G8)V S)TG$5, )8 &'( ")*+,! -41 (2-4‬‬

‫ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﺷﺪﻥ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲﻫﺎﻱ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﺑﻠﻨﺪ ﻣﺪﺕ ﻭ ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ ﻣﺪﺕ ﻭ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﻭ ﺍﺭﺍﺋﻪ‬
‫ﻳﻚ ﺗﺼﻮﻳﺮ ﻛﻠﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ‪ ،‬ﺑﺤﺚ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﺑﻠﻨﺪ ﻣﺪﺕ )ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻧﻌﻄﺎﻑﭘﺬﻳﺮ( ﺭﺍ ﻛﻨﺎﺭ‬
‫ﮔﺬﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺤﺚ ﻣﺪﻝ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ ﺑﺎ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ ﻣﺪﺕ )ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ( ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺧﺘﻪ‬

‫‪$‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺪﻝ ﻫﻤﺎﻥ »ﻣﺪﻝ ﺳﺎﺩﻩ ﻛﻴﻨﺰ«‪ ١‬ﺍﺳﺖ‪ ،‬ﺑﺤﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﺰﺭﮒ ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎﻱ ‪١٩٢٩-١٩٣٣‬‬
‫ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺩﻥ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺮﺧﻼﻑ ﻧﻈﺮﻳﻪ ﻛﻼﺳﻴﻚﻫﺎ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻌﺘﻘﺪ ﺑﻮﺩﻧﺪ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺑﻠﻨﺪ ﻣﺪﺕ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ‬
‫ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ ،‬ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻫﻤﻮﺍﺭﻩ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺍﺷﺘﻐﺎﻝ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻧﺪﺍﺭﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ‪ ١٩٣٦‬ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﺩﺍﻥ ﺍﻧﮕﻠﻴﺴﻲ ﺟﺎﻥﻣﻴﻨﺎﺭﺩﻛﻴﻨﺰ‪ ،‬ﻧﻈﺮﻳﻪ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺗﺤﺖ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ »ﺗﺌﻮﺭﻱ‬
‫ﺍﺷﺘﻐﺎﻝ ﻋﻤﻮﻣﻲ‪ ،‬ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ﻭ ﭘﻮﻝ‪ «٢‬ﻣﻨﺘﺸﺮ ﻧﻤﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺩﻻﻳﻞ ﺍﻳﺠﺎﺩ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﺤﺮﺍﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺢ ﺩﺍﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺁﻧﭽﻪ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺤﺚ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﮔﺮﻓﺖ ﻣﺪﻝ »ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺍﺷﺘﻐﺎﻝ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ« ﻛﻴﻨﺰ ﺗﺤﺖ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ‬
‫ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﭼﺴﺒﻨﺪﻩ‪ ٣‬ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﻛﻪ ﻛﻴﻨﺰ ﺩﺭ ﻛﺘﺎﺏ ﺧﻮﺩ ﻣﻄﺮﺡ ﻧﻤﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﻟﺬﺍ‪ ،‬ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﻣﺪﻝ ﺑﺎ ﻓﺮﺽ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺎﺳﻲ »ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺑﻮﺩﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ« ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﺘﻪ ﺍﮔﺮ ﺍﻓﻖ ﺯﻣﺎﻧﻲ ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ ﻣﺪﺕ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﻓﺮﺽ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺑﻮﺩﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ‬
‫ﻣﺪﺕ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻲ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﺠﺎﺋﻴﻜﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺪﻝ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ‬
‫ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻭ ﻳﺎ ‪ GDP‬ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ ،‬ﻟﺬﺍ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﻃﺮﻑ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ‬
‫ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻨﺠﺎ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﻫﺪﻑ‪ ،‬ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻲ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﻭ ﺍﺳﺎﺳﻲ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺁﻥ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺳﻄﺢ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ‪،‬‬
‫ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ‪ P‬ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﻓﺮﺽ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﻗﺒﻼﹰ ﮔﻔﺘﻪ ﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺍﺯ‪:‬‬
‫‪AD ١ =GDP=C+I+G+X-M‬‬

‫ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺑﺴﺘﮕﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻧﺤﻮﻩ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﻭ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ‬
‫ﻛﻞ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﻣﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ‬
‫ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﺴﺘﮕﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻧﺤﻮﻩ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎﻱ ‪ G ،I ،C‬ﻭ ‪ X‬ﻭ ‪ M‬ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺳﺎﺩﮔﻲ‪ ،‬ﻧﺤﻮﻩ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ‬
‫ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﻧﺤﻮﻩ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﻭ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺮﺍﺝ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ‪ ،‬ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ‬
‫ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻫﺎﻱ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪1- Simple Keynesian model‬‬

‫‪2- The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and money‬‬
‫‪3- Sticky price‬‬
‫‪ -١‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ ﻫﻨﮕﺎﻣﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺻﺤﺒﺖ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﻭ ﺍﺟﺰﺍﺀ ﺁﻥ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﺭﻳﺰﻱ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ ﺩﺍﺭﻳﻢ‪:‬‬
‫‪ +‬ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺩﻭﻟﺘﻲ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﺭﻳﺰﻱ ﺷﺪﻩ ‪ +‬ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﺭﻳﺰﻱ ﺷﺪﻩ ‪ +‬ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﺭﻳﺰﻱ ﺷﺪﻩ = ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﺭﻳﺰﻱ ﺷﺪﻩ‬
‫ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﺭﻳﺰﻱ ﺷﺪﻩ‪ -‬ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﺭﻳﺰﻱ ﺷﺪﻩ‬

‫‪%‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫!‪DYX8 <" S#Z6‬‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﮕﻮ ﻓﺮﺽ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺍﺯ‪:‬‬

‫‪AE ! C " I‬‬

‫‪G! X !M !0‬‬ ‫ﻭ‬
‫ﺑﻪ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﮕﻮ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﺩﻭ ﺑﺨﺶ ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺑﻨﮕﺎﻩﻫﺎ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﻭ ﺑﺨﺶ‬
‫ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻲ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻧﺪﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﻭ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺑﻪ ﻧﺤﻮﻩ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ‪ I‬ﻭ ‪C‬‬
‫ﺑﺴﺘﮕﻲ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ ﻫﺮ ﻳﻚ ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺢ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻒ( ﻧﺤﻮﻩ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ )‪: (c‬‬
‫ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻳﻜﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻬﻤﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﺍﺟﺰﺍﺀ ‪ GDP‬ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﺑﻴﺶ ﺍﺯ ‪ %50‬ﺍﺯ ﺁﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺗﺸﻜﻴﻞ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺑﻴﻦ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺗﺸﻜﻴﻞﺩﻫﻨﺪﻩ ‪ ، GDP‬ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻳﻜﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺑﺎﺛﺒﺎﺕﺗﺮﻳﻦ ﺍﺟﺰﺍﺀ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻃﻲ ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎﻱ ‪ ١٣٧٧-٨٠‬ﺳﻬﻢ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺍﺯ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‬
‫ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮﺡ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ )‪ (٢-١‬ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ )‪ (٢-١‬ﺳﻬﻢ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺍﺯ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ‬

‫‪٨٠‬‬ ‫‪٧٩‬‬ ‫‪٧٨‬‬ ‫‪٧٧‬‬ ‫ﺳﺎﻝ‬

‫ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ‪٥٦,١ ٥٦,٦ ٥٦,٩ ٥٧,٢‬‬

‫ﻣﺄﺧﺬ‪ :‬ﺗﺮﺍﺯﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ ﺟﻤﻬﻮﺭﻱ ﺍﺳﻼﻣﻲ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ‬

‫ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻗﺴﻤﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﻗﺒﻞ ﮔﻔﺘﻪ ﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﺳﻪ ﺟﺰﺀ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻱ‬
‫ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ ﺑﻲﺩﻭﺍﻡ‪ ،‬ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ ﺑﺎﺩﻭﺍﻡ ﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻟﺒﺘﻪ ﻫﺮ ﻳﻚ ﺍﺯ‬
‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺟﺰﺍﺀ ﻗﺒﻼﹰ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺑﺤﺚ ﻧﺤﻮﻩ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ‪ ،‬ﻫﺪﻑ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﻛﺮﺩﻥ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﺧﺼﻮﺹ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ ﺗﺌﻮﺭﻱﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﻲ ﺩﺭ ﺯﻣﻴﻨﻪ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﺻﺎﺣﺒﻨﻈﺮﺍﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻣﻄﺮﺡ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻬﻤﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮﺡ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪:‬‬

‫&!‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪ -١‬ﻧﻈﺮﻳﻪ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻄﻠﻖ )ﺟﺎﺭﻱ( ﻛﻴﻨﺰ‬

‫‪ -٢‬ﻧﻈﺮﻳﻪ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺩﺍﺋﻤﻲ ﻓﺮﻳﺪﻣﻦ‬
‫‪ -٣‬ﻧﻈﺮﻳﻪ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻧﺴﺒﻲ ﺩﻭﺯﻧﺒﺮﻱ‬
‫‪ -٤‬ﻧﻈﺮﻳﻪ ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ ﺯﻧﺪﮔﻲ ﻣﻮﺩﮔﻠﻴﺎﻧﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﺘﻪ ﻻﺯﻡ ﺑﻪ ﺫﻛﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ‪ ،‬ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺩﻳﮕﺮﻱ ﻫﻤﭽﻮﻥ ﻓﺮﻫﻨﮓ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ‪،‬‬
‫ﺍﻧﺘﻈﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻣﺮﺩﻡ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺑﺎ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻳﻲﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺑﺎﻧﻜﻲ‪ ،‬ﺗﻨﻮﻉ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ‬
‫ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺑﺮ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻗﺴﻤﺖ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﺳﺎﺩﻩ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﻥ ﺑﺤﺚ‪ ،‬ﺳﻌﻲ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﺑﺮﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﻧﻈﺮﻳﻪ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻄﻠﻖ‬
‫ﻛﻴﻨﺰ‪ ،‬ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺑﮕﻴﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﻃﺒﻖ ﻧﻈﺮﻳﻪ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻄﻠﻖ ﻛﻴﻨﺰ‪،‬‬
‫ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺍﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺗﺎﺑﻌﻲ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ ﺍﺯ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺗﺼﺮﻑ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﺪﻳﻦ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ‬
‫ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻛﻴﻨﺰ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻧﻮﺷﺖ‪:‬‬
‫)‪C=f(y‬‬
‫‪dC‬‬
‫‪.‬‬ ‫ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ )‪ (C‬ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺍﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﻭ )‪ (Y‬ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺗﺼﺮﻑ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﻭ ‪0‬‬
‫‪dY‬‬
‫ﻣﺜﺒﺖ ﺑﻮﺩﻥ ﺷﻴﺐ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻫﺮ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻩ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺗﺼﺮﻑ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ‬
‫ﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﺗﺸﺮﻳﺢ ﻧﻈﺮﻳﻪ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻛﻴﻨﺰ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺍﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻓﺮﺿﻲ ﻣﻨﺪﺭﺝ ﺩﺭ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ )‪،(٢-٢‬‬
‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﺌﻮﺭﻱ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺤﺚ ﻭ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫'!‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ )‪ :(٢-٢‬ﺍﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻓﺮﺿﻲ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻁ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻭ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ‬

‫‪C‬‬ ‫‪!C‬‬
‫‪GNP‬‬ ‫)‪DI(Y‬‬ ‫‪C‬‬ ‫" ‪APC‬‬ ‫" ‪MPC‬‬ ‫‪S‬‬ ‫‪APS " S‬‬
‫‪Y‬‬ ‫‪!S‬‬
‫‪Y‬‬ ‫‪!Y‬‬ ‫" ‪MPS‬‬
‫‪!Y‬‬

‫)‪(1‬‬ ‫)‪(2‬‬ ‫)‪(3‬‬ ‫)‪(4‬‬ ‫)‪(5‬‬ ‫)‪(6‬‬ ‫)‪(7‬‬ ‫)‪(8‬‬

‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪200‬‬ ‫‪-200‬‬ ‫¯¯‬ ‫¯¯‬

‫‪500‬‬ ‫‪400‬‬ ‫‪500‬‬ ‫‪1,25‬‬ ‫‪0,75‬‬ ‫‪-100‬‬ ‫‪-0,25‬‬ ‫‪0,25‬‬

‫‪1000‬‬ ‫‪800‬‬ ‫‪800‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0,75‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0,25‬‬

‫‪1500‬‬ ‫‪1200‬‬ ‫‪1100‬‬ ‫‪0,92‬‬ ‫‪0,75‬‬ ‫‪100‬‬ ‫‪0,08‬‬ ‫‪0,25‬‬

‫‪2000‬‬ ‫‪1600‬‬ ‫‪1400‬‬ ‫‪0,88‬‬ ‫‪0,75‬‬ ‫‪200‬‬ ‫‪0,12‬‬ ‫‪0,25‬‬

‫‪2500‬‬ ‫‪2000‬‬ ‫‪1700‬‬ ‫‪0,85‬‬ ‫‪0,75‬‬ ‫‪300‬‬ ‫‪0,15‬‬ ‫‪0,25‬‬

‫‪3000‬‬ ‫‪2400‬‬ ‫‪2000‬‬ ‫‪0,83‬‬ ‫‪0,75‬‬ ‫‪400‬‬ ‫‪0,17‬‬ ‫‪0,25‬‬

‫‪3500‬‬ ‫‪2800‬‬ ‫‪2300‬‬ ‫‪0,82‬‬ ‫‪0,75‬‬ ‫‪500‬‬ ‫‪0,18‬‬ ‫‪0,25‬‬

‫‪4000‬‬ ‫‪3200‬‬ ‫‪2600‬‬ ‫‪0,81‬‬ ‫‪0,75‬‬ ‫‪600‬‬ ‫‪0,19‬‬ ‫‪0,25‬‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﺳﺘﻮﻥ ﻳﻚ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻓﺮﺿﻲ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻁ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ )‪ (GNP‬ﻣﻨﻌﻜﺲ ﺷﺪﻩ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﺎ ﻓﺮﺽ ﺁﻧﻜﻪ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺗﺼﺮﻑ )‪ ٨٠ (DI‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ‪ GNP‬ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﻟﺬﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎﺩﮔﻲ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺗﺼﺮﻑ ﺭﺍ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻧﻤﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻃﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺘﻮﻥ ﺩﻭﻡ ﺩﺭﺝ ﺷﺪﻩ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺳﺘﻮﻥ ﺳﻮﻡ ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺁﻣﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺗﺌﻮﺭﻱ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻛﻴﻨﺰ ﺳﻪ‬
‫ﻧﻜﺘﻪ ﺣﺎﺋﺰ ﺍﻫﻤﻴﺖ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪:‬‬
‫‪ (١‬ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ‪ :١‬ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻃﺒﻖ ﺍﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻣﻨﺪﺭﺝ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ )‪ ،(٢-٢‬ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺻﻔﺮ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﻓﺮﺩ ﻫﻨﻮﺯ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ‪ ٢٠٠‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺑﻪ »ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ« ﻣﺸﻬﻮﺭ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫‪1- Autonomous Consumption‬‬

‫!‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪ (٢‬ﻣﻴﻞ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ )‪ :٢(APC‬ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻓﺮﺩ ﭼﻨﺪ ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺍﺯ‬
‫ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﻣﺎﻳﻞ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﺪ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪C‬‬
‫" ‪APC‬‬
‫‪Y‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ‪ APC‬ﺑﺮ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺳﻄﻮﺡ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﺍﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻃﻪ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻴﻞ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ‬
‫ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪ ،‬ﺑﻪ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺍﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺗﻤﺎﻳﻞ ﺩﺍﺭﻧﺪ ﺗﺎ ﺳﻬﻢ ﻛﻤﺘﺮﻱ ﺍﺯ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺧﻮﺩ‬
‫ﺭﺍ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻨﺪ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (٣‬ﻣﻴﻞ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ‪ :١‬ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺯﺍﺀ ﻫﺮ ﻳﻚ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺩﺭ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ‪ ،‬ﭼﻪ‬
‫ﺑﺨﺸﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻥ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪dC‬‬
‫=‪MPC‬‬
‫‪dY‬‬
‫ﺑﺮﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﺍﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻣﻨﺪﺭﺝ ﺩﺭ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ‪ ،‬ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ‪ MPC‬ﺑﺮ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺳﻄﻮﺡ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪﻱ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺳﺘﻮﻥ ﭘﻨﺠﻢ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﻣﻼﺣﻈﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﻣﻴﻞ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-١٠‬ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺗﺮﺳﻴﻢ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ ﺧﻂ ‪ ٤٥‬ﺩﺭﺟﻪ‬
‫ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮﻱ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺑﺎ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺭﺍ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ ﻭ ﺧﻂ ‪ C‬ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺎ ﺷﻴﺐ ‪ ٠/٧٥‬ﻧﺸﺎﻥ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪&'() *+,+) :(2-10) !"#$%‬‬

‫‪C‬‬
‫‪Y=C‬‬
‫‪C‬‬
‫‪800‬‬
‫‪200‬‬ ‫‪a‬‬

‫‪45º‬‬
‫‪800‬‬
‫‪Y=DI‬‬

‫‪2‬‬
‫‪- Average Propensity to Consume‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪- Marginal Propensity to Consume‬‬

‫"‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﻣﻨﺪﺭﺝ ﺩﺭ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﻭ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎﺩﮔﻲ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ‬ ‫‪MPC‬‬ ‫ﺑﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺍﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻁ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺁﻭﺭﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪C=200+0.75Y‬‬
‫‪dC‬‬
‫=‪ = MPC‬ﻣﻴﻞ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ‬ ‫‪=٠/٧٥‬‬ ‫ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﻓﻮﻕ‪:‬‬
‫‪dY‬‬
‫‪C ٢٠٠‬‬
‫=‪ = APC‬ﻣﻴﻞ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ‬ ‫=‬ ‫‪+ ٠/٧٥‬‬
‫‪Y‬‬ ‫‪Y‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻛﻴﻨﺰ ﺩﻭ ﻗﺎﻋﺪﻩ ﻛﻠﻲ ﺗﺤﺖ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ »ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻥ ﺭﻭﺍﻧﻲ ﻛﻴﻨﺰ« ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮﺡ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺻﺎﺩﻕ ﺍﺳﺖ‪:‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻒ( ﻣﻴﻞ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻫﻤﻮﺍﺭﻩ ﻛﻮﭼﻜﺘﺮ ﺍﺯ ﻳﻚ ﻭ ﺑﺰﺭﮔﺘﺮ ﺍﺯ ﺻﻔﺮ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ؛ ﻳﻌﻨﻲ‬

‫‪#MPC #1‬‬
‫ﺏ( ﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻴﻞ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﻤﺮﻳﻦ‪ :‬ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻫﺮ ﻳﻚ ﺍﺯ ﺍﺷﻜﺎﻝ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻣﻴﻞ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻭ ﻣﻴﻞ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﺩﺳﺖ ﺁﻭﺭﻳﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪C‬‬ ‫‪C‬‬
‫‪C‬‬ ‫‪C‬‬ ‫‪C‬‬
‫‪C‬‬

‫‪y‬‬ ‫‪y‬‬ ‫‪y‬‬

‫ﺏ( ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ‪:‬‬

‫ﻫﻨﮕﺎﻣﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺗﻤﺎﻣﻲ ﺳﻄﻮﺡ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺗﺼﺮﻑ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﺳﺎﺩﮔﻲ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﺭﺍ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻛﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺯﻳﺮ‬
‫ﻋﻤﻞ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪:‬‬

‫‪YD " DI " C & S % S " Y D $ C‬‬

‫ﺑﻪ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ‪ ،‬ﻓﺮﺩ ﻛﻞ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﻳﺎ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺯ ﺍﺧﺘﻼﻑ‬
‫ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺗﺼﺮﻑ ﻭ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎﺩﮔﻲ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﺭﺍ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻧﻤﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻁ‬
‫ﺑﻪ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﺎﺕ ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺘﻮﻥ ﺷﺸﻢ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ )‪ (٢-٢‬ﺩﺭﺝ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﺳﻪ ﻧﻜﺘﻪ ﻃﺮﺡ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮﺡ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﻃﺮﺡ ﺍﺳﺖ‪:‬‬

‫‪#‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻒ‪ :‬ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ‪ :‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ ﺍﺯ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ‪ ،‬ﺍﮔﺮ ﺷﺨﺼﻲ‬
‫ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪﻱ ﻧﺪﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﻭ ﺑﺨﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻛﻨﺪ ﺑﺎﻳﺴﺘﻲ ﻗﺮﺽ ﺑﮕﻴﺮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﻫﻤﺎﻥ ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﻣﻨﻔﻲ‬
‫)ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ( ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﺏ‪ :‬ﻣﻴﻞ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺑﻪ ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ)‪ :١(APS‬ﺳﻬﻤﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺻﺮﻑ‬
‫ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻁ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻣﻴﻞ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺑﻪ ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺘﻮﻥ ﻫﻔﺘﻢ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ‬
‫)‪ (٢-٢‬ﻣﻨﻌﻜﺲ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﺝ‪ :‬ﻣﻴﻞ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﻲ ﺑﻪ ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ)‪ :٢(MPS‬ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺯﺍﺀ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻫﺮ ﻳﻚ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﭼﻪ‬
‫ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻥ ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻁ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻣﻴﻞ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﻲ ﺑﻪ ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺘﻮﻥ‬
‫ﻫﺸﺘﻢ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺩﺭﺝ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﻣﻴﻞ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﻲ ﺑﻪ ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﻳﻌﻨﻲ ﺍﮔﺮ ‪ ١‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺍﺿﺎﻓﻪ ﺷﻮﺩ ‪ ٠/٢٥‬ﺁﻥ ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻘﺎﻳﺴﻪ ﻣﻴﻞ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻭ ﻣﻴﻞ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﻲ ﺑﻪ ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ ﻛﻪ‪:‬‬
‫‪MPS+MPC=0.25+0.75=1‬‬
‫ﻟﺬﺍ ﺑﺎ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻦ ﻣﻴﻞ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎﺩﮔﻲ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﻣﻴﻞ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﻲ ﺑﻪ ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﺭﺍ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ‬
‫ﻧﻤﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﻧﺤﻮ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﺑﻴﻦ ﻣﻴﻞ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻭ ﻣﻴﻞ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺑﻪ ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ‬
‫ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺑﺪﺳﺖ ﺁﻭﺭﺩ‪:‬‬
‫‪Y=C+S‬‬
‫ﺑﺎ ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﻃﺮﻓﻴﻦ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﻓﻮﻕ ﺑﺮ ‪ Y‬ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻴﻢ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪:‬‬
‫‪C S‬‬
‫=‪١‬‬ ‫‪& % APC & APS " ١‬‬
‫‪Y Y‬‬
‫ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ ﺑﺎ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻦ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ‪ ،‬ﺑﻪ ﺷﻴﻮﻩ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﭘﺲ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﺭﺍ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻛﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﻗﺴﻤﺖ ﻗﺒﻠﻲ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ‪ C=200+0.75Y‬ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺁﻣﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ‪:‬‬
‫‪Y=C+S‬‬ ‫‪Y=200+0.75+S‬‬ ‫‪S=-200+0.25Y‬‬
‫ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎﺩﮔﻲ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺮﺍﺝ ﻧﻤﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪(٢-١١‬‬
‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﺭﺍ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪1- Average Propensity to Saving‬‬

‫‪2- Marginal Propensity to Saving‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪*&+# !"!# ,% ,%-.%-. !"!# $%&'()% :(2-11) !"#$%‬‬

‫‪C‬‬

‫‪AE=Y‬‬

‫ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ‬
‫‪C=200+0.75Y‬‬

‫ﻣﺼﺮﻑ‬
‫‪200‬‬
‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪800‬‬
‫‪S‬‬ ‫‪S " $200& 0.75Y‬‬

‫‪100‬‬
‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪800‬‬
‫‪- 200‬‬

‫ﻃﺒﻖ ﺍﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻣﻨﺪﺭﺝ ﺩﺭ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ‪ ،٨٠٠‬ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻟﺬﺍ‬
‫ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﺻﻔﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺮ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪﻱ‪ ،‬ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﻮﺡ ﻛﻤﺘﺮ‬
‫ﺍﺯ ‪ ،٨٠٠‬ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﻣﻨﻔﻲ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﺝ( ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ‪:‬‬
‫ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﻗﺒﻼﹰ ﻧﻴﺰ ﮔﻔﺘﻪ ﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﻪ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻱ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﺍﻱ ﺧﺮﻳﺪﺍﺭﻱ‬
‫ﺷﺪﻩ ﻭ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩﻱ ﺍﻧﺒﺎﺭ ﺩﺭ ﻳﻚ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﻣﻌﻴﻦ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺩﺭ ﻭﺍﻗﻊ‬
‫ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﺭﻳﺰﻱ ﺷﺪﻩ‪ ١‬ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺗﻤﺎﻳﻞ‪ ٢‬ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﻲ ﺑﺮ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﺨﺶ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﺳﺎﺩﻩ ﻣﻬﻤﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪1- Planned Investment‬‬

‫‪2- Designed Investment‬‬

‫‪$‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪ (١‬ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ‪ :‬ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﺠﺎﺋﻴﻜﻪ ﺑﺮ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﺗﻤﺎﻡ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ‬
‫ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺁﻥ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪﺍﻱ ﺑﻴﻦ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ﻭ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﻣﻨﻔﻲ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺭﺍ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻧﻮﺷﺖ‪:‬‬
‫‪dI‬‬
‫)‪I=f(i‬‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫‪di‬‬
‫ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-١٢‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﺭﺍ ﺗﺮﺳﻴﻢ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫‪6/%78345#&) !"!# :(2-12)/%012.‬‬

‫‪i‬‬
‫ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ‬

‫ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ‬ ‫‪I‬‬

‫ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ‬
‫‪I‬‬

‫‪ (٢‬ﺳﻮﺩ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺍﻧﺘﻈﺎﺭ‪ :‬ﺳﻮﺩ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺍﻧﺘﻈﺎﺭ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺯ ﺍﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺍﻧﺘﻈﺎﺭ ﺍﺯ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ‬
‫ﺍﻧﺘﻈﺎﺭﻱ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﻣﻲﺁﻳﺪ‪ ،‬ﺍﺛﺮ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ ﺑﺮ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺳﻮﺩ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ‬
‫ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﺑﺎﻻ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (٣‬ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ‪ :‬ﺳﻄﺢ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺑﺎ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﻫﺮ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻩ‬
‫ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﺑﺪ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪.‬‬
‫‪dI‬‬ ‫‪dI‬‬
‫) ‪I " f (i, y‬‬ ‫؛‬ ‫ﻭ ‪!0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫‪dy‬‬ ‫‪di‬‬
‫‪ (٤‬ﺛﺒﺎﺕ ﻭ ﭼﻬﺎﺭﭼﻮﺏ ﺣﻘﻮﻕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ :‬ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﺑﻮﺩﻥ ﭼﻬﺎﺭﭼﻮﺏ ﺣﻘﻮﻕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ؛ ﭼﻬﺎﺭﭼﻮﺏ ﻣﺎﻟﻜﻴﺖ ﺷﺨﺼﻲ ﻭ ﻏﻴﺮﻩ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍﺭ ﻭ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﻧﻘﺶ‬
‫ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺗﻮﺟﻬﻲ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪.‬‬

‫!‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪ (٥‬ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ‪ :‬ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﻧﻈﻴﺮ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ )ﺍﻋﻢ‬
‫ﺍﺯ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺗﻲ‪ ،‬ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﻭ ﻏﻴﺮﻩ( ﻭ ﭘﻮﻟﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻮﺩ ﺍﻧﺘﻈﺎﺭﻱ ﻭ ﺍﺛﺮﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺑﺮ‬
‫ﺳﺎﻳﺮ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﺑﺮ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﺛﺮ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (٦‬ﭘﻴﺸﺮﻓﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺗﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﮊﻱ ﻭ ﺗﻜﻨﻴﻜﻲ‪ :‬ﭘﻴﺸﺮﻓﺖ ﺗﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﮊﻱ ﻭ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ‬
‫ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﻻﺯﻡ ﺑﻪ ﺫﻛﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺑﻪ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺁﻣﺪﻩ ﺩﺭ ﻫﺮ ﻳﻚ ﺍﺯ ﺑﻨﺪﻫﺎﻱ ﺩﻭ ﺗﺎ ﺷﺸﻢ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ‬
‫ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪: 9':;0 <;% 61=>% /0 ?# -#@/0 <05AB -‬‬

‫ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﺷﺪﻥ ﻧﺤﻮﻩ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻭ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻛﻞ ﻭ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ‬
‫ﻛﻞ ﺭﺍ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻧﻤﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﻗﺒﻼﹰ ﮔﻔﺘﻪ ﺷﺪ‪ . GDP " AD " C # I ،‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ ﺳﻌﻲ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ‬
‫ﻧﺤﻮﻩ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻪ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ‪ ،‬ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ ﻭ ﺟﺒﺮﻱ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺑﮕﻴﺮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻒ ـ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ‪:‬‬

‫ﺍﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻣﻨﺪﺭﺝ ﺩﺭ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ )‪ ،(٢-٣‬ﺍﺯ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ )‪ (٢-٢‬ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺮﺍﺝ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﺎ ﻓﺮﺽ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ‬
‫ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﻮﺡ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ‪ ١٠٠‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ ،‬ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ‬
‫)‪ (AE‬ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺷﺸﻤﻴﻦ ﺳﺘﻮﻥ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻧﻤﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻁ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺘﻮﻥ‬
‫ﭘﻨﺠﻢ ﺁﻣﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﺑﺎ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻦ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻛﻞ ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺍﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻭ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺭﺍ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻛﺮﺩ‪:‬‬
‫‪ (١‬ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮﻱ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻞ ﻭ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ‪ :‬ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﺍﺯ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻞ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻭ‬
‫ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﺍﺯ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ )‪ (AE‬ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺳﺎﺱ‪ ،‬ﻃﺒﻖ ﺍﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻣﻨﺪﺭﺝ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ )‪ ،(٢-٣‬ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ‪ ١٢٠٠‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮﻱ ﻭ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺑﺮﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (٢‬ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮﻱ ﺭﻳﺰﺵ ﻭ ﺗﺰﺭﻳﻖ‪ :‬ﺩﺭ ﻣﺪﻝ ﺩﻭ ﺑﺨﺸﻲ‪ ،‬ﺭﻳﺰﺵ ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﻭ ﺗﺰﺭﻳﻖ‬
‫ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮﻱ ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﻭ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺩﺳﺖ ﻳﺎﻓﺖ‪ .‬ﻟﺬﺍ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻘﻄﻪﺍﻱ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ‬
‫ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﺑﺎ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺻﺪ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮ ﻣﻲﮔﺮﺩﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺩﺭ ﻫﻤﺎﻥ‬

‫"‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺳﻄﺢ ‪ ١٢٠٠‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﻣﻲﺁﻳﺪ ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮﻱ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻞ‬
‫ﻭ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﻳﻜﺴﺎﻥ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ )‪ :(٢-٣‬ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻱ ﺩﻭ ﺑﺨﺸﻲ‬

‫‪GNP‬‬ ‫)‪DI(Y‬‬ ‫‪C‬‬ ‫‪S‬‬ ‫‪I‬‬ ‫‪AE=C+I‬‬

‫)‪(١‬‬ ‫)‪(٢‬‬ ‫)‪(٤‬‬ ‫)‪(٥‬‬ ‫)‪(٦‬‬
‫)‪(٣‬‬

‫‪٠‬‬ ‫‪٠‬‬ ‫‪٢٠٠‬‬ ‫‪-٢٠٠‬‬ ‫‪١٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٣٠٠‬‬

‫‪٥٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٤٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٥٠٠‬‬ ‫‪-١٠٠‬‬ ‫‪١٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٦٠٠‬‬

‫‪١٠٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٨٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٨٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٠‬‬ ‫‪١٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٩٠٠‬‬

‫‪١٥٠٠‬‬ ‫‪١٢٠٠‬‬ ‫‪١١٠٠‬‬ ‫‪١٠٠‬‬ ‫‪١٠٠‬‬ ‫‪١٢٠٠‬‬

‫‪٢٠٠٠‬‬ ‫‪١٦٠٠‬‬ ‫‪١٤٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٢٠٠‬‬ ‫‪١٠٠‬‬ ‫‪١٥٠٠‬‬

‫‪٢٥٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٢٠٠٠‬‬ ‫‪١٧٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٣٠٠‬‬ ‫‪١٠٠‬‬ ‫‪١٨٠٠‬‬

‫‪٣٠٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٢٤٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٢٠٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٤٠٠‬‬ ‫‪١٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٢١٠٠‬‬

‫‪٣٥٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٢٨٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٢٣٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٥٠٠‬‬ ‫‪١٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٢٤٠٠‬‬

‫‪٤٠٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٣٢٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٢٦٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٦٠٠‬‬ ‫‪١٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٢٧٠٠‬‬

‫ﻛﻠﻴﻪ ﺳﻄﻮﺡ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪﻱ ﻛﻤﺘﺮ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ )‪ (١٢٠٠‬ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﻫﻨﺪﻩ ﻓﺰﻭﻧﻲ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﺑﺮ‬
‫ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩﻱ ﺍﻧﺒﺎﺭ ﺩﺭ ﺣﺎﻝ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻳﻚ ﭼﻨﻴﻦ‬
‫ﻭﺿﻌﻴﺘﻲ ﺍﺻﻄﻼﺣﺎﹰ »ﺷﻜﺎﻑ ﺗﻮﺭﻣﻲ« ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺗﻮﺭﻣﻲ ﻧﺎﻡ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﻛﻠﻴﻪ ﺳﻄﻮﺡ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪﻱ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ‬
‫ﺍﺯ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﻧﺸﺎﻥﺩﻫﻨﺪﻩ ﻓﺰﻭﻧﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻞ ﺑﺮ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻣﺮ ﺣﻜﺎﻳﺖ ﺍﺯ‬
‫ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩﻱ ﺍﻧﺒﺎﺭ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﻭ ﺍﺻﻄﻼﺣﺎﹰ »ﺷﻜﺎﻑ ﺭﻛﻮﺩﻱ« ﻧﺎﻡ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺏ ـ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ‪:‬‬

‫ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲﻫﺎﻱ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻞ ﻭ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎﺩﮔﻲ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ‬
‫ﺭﺍ ﺑﺪﺳﺖ ﺁﻭﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ )‪ (٢-١٣‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺭﺍ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪#‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪9': ;0 61=>% /0 ?# -#@/0 <05AB :(2-13)/%012.‬‬

‫‪I ،C‬‬
‫‪AE=Y‬‬
‫‪C+I=AE‬‬
‫ﺷﻜﺎﻑ ﺭﻛﻮﺩﻱ‬

‫‪E‬‬
‫‪1200‬‬
‫·‬ ‫‪I=100‬‬
‫ﺷﻜﺎﻑ ﺗﻮﺭﻣﻲ‬
‫‪C‬‬
‫‪M‬‬
‫·‬

‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪1200‬‬

‫ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ ﻣﻼﺣﻈﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﻗﺒﻠﻲ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺮﺍﺝ ﺷﺪﻩ‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ ﺗﺮﺳﻴﻢ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﺠﺎﺋﻴﻜﻪ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺿﺎﻓﻪ‬
‫ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ‪ ١٠٠‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﻟﺬﺍ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ‬
‫ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ‪ ١٠٠‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﺑﺎﻻ ﻣﻨﺘﻘﻞ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻭ ﺑﺪﻳﻦ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ‬
‫ﺁﻣﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﺪﻳﻦ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ‪ ،‬ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ‪ ١٢٠٠‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺁﻣﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺳﻄﻮﺡ ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺮ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻞ )ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ( ﺍﺯ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﻭ ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ‬
‫ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩﻱ ﺍﻧﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ )ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻧﺎﺧﻮﺍﺳﺘﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩﻱ ﺍﻧﺒﺎﺭ ﻭ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺭﻛﻮﺩﻱ( ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺣﺎﻟﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﻮﺡ ﭘﺎﻳﻴﻦﺗﺮ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻞ )ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ( ﺍﺯ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﻛﻤﺘﺮ ﻭ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩﻱ ﺍﻧﺒﺎﺭ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ )ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻧﺎﺧﻮﺍﺳﺘﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩﻱ ﺍﻧﺒﺎﺭ ﻭ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ‬
‫ﺗﻮﺭﻣﻲ(‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺳﻮﻕ‬
‫ﺩﻫﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﺪﻳﻦ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺭﻛﻮﺩﻱ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻞ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩﻱ ﺍﻧﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ‪ ،‬ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪﻛﻨﻨﺪﮔﺎﻥ ﺳﻌﻲ ﺩﺭ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﻨﺪ ﻭ‬
‫ﺑﺪﻳﻦﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﭘﻴﺶ ﻣﻲﺭﻭﻧﺪ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺭﻭﻧﻖ ﻛﻪ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ‬

‫‪$%‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺍﺯ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩﻱ ﺍﻧﺒﺎﺭ ﺩﺭ ﺣﺎﻝ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻣﺮ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‬
‫ﺷﺪﻩ ﻭ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﻫﺪﺍﻳﺖ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺭﺍ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮﻱ ﺭﻳﺰﺵ ﻭ ﺗﺰﺭﻳﻖ ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻃﻪ‬
‫ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-١٤‬ﺗﺮﺳﻴﻢ ﺷﺪﻩ‪ ،‬ﺑﺪﺳﺖ ﺁﻭﺭﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪C4/DB ; ED4/ 6&:%&: C4&F ,% 9': ;0 61=>% /0 ?# -#@/0 <05AB :(2-14)/%012.‬‬

‫‪C, I , AE‬‬
‫‪AE=Y‬‬
‫‪AE=C+I‬‬

‫‪C=200+0.75Y‬‬

‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪1200‬‬
‫‪S, I‬‬ ‫‪S " $200# 0.75Y‬‬

‫‪I‬‬
‫‪100‬‬
‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪800‬‬ ‫‪1200‬‬
‫‪-200‬‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ ،(٢-١٤‬ﺯﻳﺮ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲﻫﺎﻱ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻞ ﻭ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ‪ ،‬ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻁ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﻭ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺗﺮﺳﻴﻢ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺯ ﺗﻘﺎﻃﻊ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺩﻭ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ‬
‫ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﻣﻲﺁﻳﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺝ ـ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺟﺒﺮﻱ‪:‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﻭﺵ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮﻱ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻞ )ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ( ﻭ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﻭ ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ‬
‫ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮﻱ ﺭﻳﺰﺵ ﻭ ﺗﺰﺭﻳﻖ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺪﺳﺖ ﺁﻭﺭﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺢ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮﻱ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻛﻞ ﻭ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ‪:‬‬
‫‪AE " C # I " Y‬‬ ‫ﻣﻲﺩﺍﻧﻴﻢ ﻛﻪ‪:‬‬

‫&‪$‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺑﺎ ﺟﺎﻳﮕﺰﺍﺭﻱ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻭ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ )‪ ( A=١٠٠‬ﺩﺭ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﻓﻮﻕ‬
‫ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻴﻢ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪:‬‬

‫‪200 ! 0.75 y ! 100 Y‬‬

‫‪300 ! 0.75Y‬‬ ‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪300 0.25Y‬‬
‫‪Y‬‬ ‫‪1200‬‬

‫ﺑﺪﻳﻦ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ‪ ١٢٠٠‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﻣﻲﺁﻳﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﻓﺮﻡ ﻛﻠﻲ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ ﻓﻮﻕ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻴﻢ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪:‬‬

‫‪AE " C # I " Y‬‬

‫‪C " a # a1Y‬‬
‫‪I"I‬‬
‫‪Y " C # I " a # a1Y # I‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫"‪Y‬‬ ‫] ‪[a # I‬‬
‫‪1 $ a1‬‬
‫ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﺟﺎﻳﮕﺰﺍﺭﻱ ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ﻋﺪﺩﻱ ﺩﺭ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺩﺍﺭﻳﻢ‪:‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪(200 ! 100) 1200‬‬
‫‪1 " .75‬‬

‫‪ -‬ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮﻱ ﺭﻳﺰﺵ ﻭ ﺗﺰﺭﻳﻖ‪ :‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺑﺎ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮﻱ ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﻭ‬
‫ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻴﻢ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪:‬‬
‫‪S I # "200 ! 025 100‬‬
‫‪0.25 300‬‬
‫‪300‬‬
‫‪1200‬‬
‫‪0.25‬‬
‫‪ :/01234 5678$ 941 !"#$%& '#() *+,-.‬ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﻗﺒﻼﹰ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﺷـﺪ‪ ،‬ﺳـﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔـﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﻭ ﻣـﺼﺮﻑ‬
‫ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ ﺍﺯ ﺟﻤﻠﻪ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻠﻲ ﻫـﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﻛـﻪ ﺑـﺮ ﻣﺨـﺎﺭﺝ ﻭ ﺗﻘﺎﺿـﺎﻱ ﻛـﻞ ﻣﺆﺛﺮﻧـﺪ‪ .‬ﻧﻤـﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪،(٢-١٥‬‬

‫‪1- multiplier Analysis‬‬

‫'‪$‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻞ ﺗﺤﺖ ﺩﻭ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﻛﻴﻨﺰﻱ ﻭ ﻛﻼﺳﻴﻜﻲ ﺭﺍ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪ .‬ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺍﺷﺘﻐﺎﻝ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ )‪ (E0‬ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﺳﺌﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﺳﺎﺳﻲ ﺁﻥ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ‬
‫ﭼﻘﺪﺭ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺯﻳﺎﺩ ﺷﻮﺩ )ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﻳﺎ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ( ﺗـﺎ ﺍﻗﺘـﺼﺎﺩ ﺑـﻪ ﺳـﻄﺢ ﺍﺷـﺘﻐﺎﻝ ﻛﺎﻣـﻞ‬
‫ﺑﺮﺳﺪ؟ ﭘﺎﺳﺦ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺳﻮﺍﻝ ﺩﺭ ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺭﻙ ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﻓﺰﺍﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﻣﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﻣـﻲﺷـﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺗﺤﻠﻴـﻞ ﺿـﺮﻳﺐ‬
‫ﻓﺰﺍﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺍﮔﺮ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺑﺨﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺍﺯ ‪ E0‬ﺑﻪ ‪ E1‬ﺣﺮﻛﺖ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﺪ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔـﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﻭ‬
‫ﻳﺎ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺑﻪ ﭼﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﺪ‪.‬‬

‫;‪*< 5=)=>. ?#$%&$ :(2-15)9$46:‬‬

‫‪P‬‬
‫‪S‬‬

‫‪E0‬‬
‫?‬ ‫‪E1‬‬

‫‪AD0‬‬ ‫‪AD1‬‬
‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪Y‬‬ ‫‪YFN‬‬
‫ﻣﺠﺪﺩﺍﹰ ﺍﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻁ ﺑﻪ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ )‪ (٢-٣‬ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺑﮕﻴﺮﻳﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﻓﺮﺽ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ‪ ١٠٠‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻁ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺟﺪﻳﺪ ﻭ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﺟﺪﻳـﺪ‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ )‪ (٢-٤‬ﻣﻨﻌﻜﺲ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫!‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ )‪ :(٢-٤‬ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ‬

‫‪Y‬‬ ‫‪I%‬‬ ‫‪C ! I%‬‬ ‫‪A%E %‬‬

‫!‬ ‫"!‬ ‫‪!#‬‬

‫‪!#‬‬ ‫"!‬ ‫‪!$‬‬
‫‪!%‬‬ ‫"!‬ ‫&!‬
‫"& !‬ ‫"!‬ ‫'& !‬
‫(& !‬ ‫"!‬ ‫(& !‬
‫ﻧﻘﻄﻪ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ‬
‫"!‬ ‫"!‬ ‫)& !‬
‫‪! "#‬‬ ‫"!‬ ‫"" !‬
‫‪! "%‬‬ ‫"!‬ ‫*" !‬
‫"' !‬ ‫"!‬ ‫‪! "%‬‬

‫ﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ‪ ١٠٠‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻄﺢ ‪ ٢٠٠‬ﻣﻲﺭﺳﺪ ﻭ ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻘﻄﻪ‬

‫ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺯ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮﻱ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻛﻞ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ‪ ١٦٠٠‬ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ‬
‫ﻣﻲﮔﺮﺩﺩ‪ .‬ﻟﺬﺍ ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪﻩ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ‪ ١٠٠‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‬
‫ﺍﺯ ‪ ١٢٠٠‬ﺑﻪ ‪ ١٦٠٠‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﻓﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ‪ ١٠٠‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ‬
‫ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ‪ ٤٠٠‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﻓﺖ‪ .‬ﻳﻌﻨﻲ؛‬
‫‪$Y‬‬ ‫‪400‬‬
‫= ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﻓﺰﺍﻳﻨﺪﻩ‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪$I‬‬ ‫‪100‬‬
‫‪ ( $Y‬ﻭ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﻓﻮﻕ‪ ،‬ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ) ‪400‬‬

‫ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ )‪ ( $I ١٠٠‬ﺑﻮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﺪﻳﻦ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ‪ ،‬ﻃﺒﻖ ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﻓﺰﺍﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﺪﻩ‪ ،‬ﺍﮔﺮ‬
‫‪$Y‬‬
‫‪.‬‬ ‫ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ‪ ١‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺍﺿﺎﻓﻪ ﺷﻮﺩ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ‪ ٤‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻳﺎﻓﺖ ﻭ ﻳﺎ ‪4‬‬
‫‪$I‬‬
‫ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﺁﻳﺎ ﺿﺮﺍﻳﺐ ﻓﺰﺍﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻱ ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﻳﺎ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺑﺴﺘﮕﻲ ﺑﻪ ﺷﻴﺐ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ‬
‫ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﺤﺚ ﺭﺍ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻭ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺩ‪ .‬ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪(٢-١٦‬‬
‫ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻄﺢ ‪ I‬ﺑﻪ ‪ ( $I =١٠٠) I %‬ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ‬
‫‪ (٤٠٠) $Y‬ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪.‬‬

‫"‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫;‪/01234 5678$ 94 59$EFA#=C(D ?#$%&$ :(2-16) 9$46:‬‬

‫‪AE ، I ، C‬‬

‫‪Y=AE‬‬
‫‪E%‬‬ ‫‪C ! I%‬‬
‫‪$I =100‬‬ ‫‪C+I‬‬
‫‪E‬‬
‫‪C‬‬
‫‪$Y‬‬ ‫‪=400‬‬

‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪YE 1200 YE % 1600‬‬

‫ﺍﻣﺎ ﺳﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﺳﺎﺳﻲ ﺁﻥ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﭼﮕﻮﻧﻪ ﻳﻚ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ‬
‫‪ ٤‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ؟ ﻓﻬﻢ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻜﺘﻪ ﻣﺴﺘﻠﺰﻡ ﺩﺭﻙ ﻧﺤﻮﻩ ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮﺩ ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﻓﺰﺍﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﻻﺯﻡ ﺑﻪ ﺫﻛﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻱ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ ﺑﺎ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﻫﺮﮔﻮﻧﻪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ‬
‫ﺑﻪ ﻣﻌﻨﻲ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺩﺭ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬ﺩﺭ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻣﺎ‪ ،‬ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺻﺪ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ‬
‫ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺮﺍﺣﻞ ﺍﻭﻟﻴﻪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺻﺪ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻧﺒﺎﻝ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻣﺮ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻌﻨﺎﻱ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﺍﺯ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻭ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ‪ ١٠٠‬ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﺑﻌﺪﻱ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ )ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭﻫﺎ( ﺑﺨﺸﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﺰﺑﻮﺭ ﺭﺍ ﺧﺮﺝ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﻭ ﺑﺨﺶ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ‬
‫ﺭﺍ ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭ ﻣﺠﺪﺩﺍﹰ ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻓﺮﺁﻳﻨﺪ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﻧﺤﻮ ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ ﭘﻴﺪﺍ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﻛﻪ ﭼﮕﻮﻧﻪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ‪١٠٠‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ‬
‫ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ‪ ٤٠٠‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻣﻲﮔﺮﺩﺩ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﺗﺸﺮﻳﺢ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﻓﺮﺽ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ ﺑﻨﮕﺎﻩﻫﺎ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺧﻮﺵﺑﻴﻦ ﺑﻮﺩﻩ ﻭ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ‪١٠٠‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﺛﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻃﻲ ﻣﺮﺍﺣﻞ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﻲ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺭﺍ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪:‬‬
‫‪:@# A,B(C‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ‪ ١٠٠‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ ﻭ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ‪ ١٠٠‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻣﻲﮔﺮﺩﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﺪﻳﻦ‬
‫ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ‪ ١٠٠‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻳﺎﻓﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺗﻲ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ‪:‬‬
‫‪$) = +١٠٠ & $'( = +١٠٠ & $Y =١٠٠‬‬

‫‪#‬‬
 ‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ‪ ١٠٠‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﻭ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻣﺰﺑﻮﺭ ﻗﺴﻤﺘﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻥ ﺭﺍ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻭ ﺑﺨﺸﻲ ﺍﺯ‬
‫ﺁﻥ ﺭﺍ ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﻓﺮﺽ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻴﻞ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ )‪ ٠/٧٥ (MPC‬ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻌﻨﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﻚ‬
‫ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺑﺎﻋﺚ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ‪ ٠/٧٥‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻭ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ‪ ٠/٢٥‬ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪:G34 A,B(C‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﺩﻭﻡ ﺍﺗﻔﺎﻗﺎﺕ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺭﺥ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺩﺍﺩ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ‪١٠٠‬‬ ‫ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ‪٧٥‬‬ ‫ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ‪ ٧٥‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ‪ ٧٥‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪﻱ‬
‫ﻭﺍﺣﺪﻱ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ )ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ(‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺣﺪﻱ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ )ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ(‬

‫‪:G6D A,B(C‬‬
‫ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ‪٧٥‬‬ ‫ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ‪٥٦/٢٥‬‬ ‫ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ‪٥٦ /٢٥‬‬ ‫ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ‪٥٦/٢٥‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﺣﺪﻱ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ )ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ(‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺣﺪﻱ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺣﺪﻱ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺣﺪﻱ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ )ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ(‬

‫‪:G9=HI A,B(C‬‬
‫ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ‪٥٦/٢٥‬‬ ‫ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ‪٤٢/١٩‬‬ ‫ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ‪٤٢/١٩‬‬ ‫ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ‪٤٢/١٩‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﺣﺪﻱ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ )ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ(‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺣﺪﻱ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺣﺪﻱ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺣﺪﻱ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ )ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ(‬

‫‪:JK"L A,B(C‬‬
‫ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ‪٤٢/١٩‬‬ ‫ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ‪٣١/٦٤‬‬ ‫ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ‪٣١/٦٤‬‬ ‫ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ‪ ٣١/٦٤‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪﻱ‬
‫ﻭﺍﺣﺪﻱ )ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ(‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺣﺪﻱ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺣﺪﻱ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ )ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ (‬
‫ﻭ‪....‬‬
‫ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﺧﻼﺻﻪ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻴﻢ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪:‬‬
‫‪1 : $I‬‬ ‫‪100 & $AE‬‬ ‫‪100 & $Y‬‬ ‫‪100‬‬
‫)‪( I -‬‬ ‫)‪( AE -‬‬ ‫)‪(Y -‬‬
‫‪,$C 75 & $AE‬‬ ‫‪75 & $Y‬‬ ‫‪75‬‬
‫‪2 : $Y‬‬ ‫‪100 & +‬‬
‫‪*$S 25‬‬
‫)‪(Y -‬‬
‫‪,$C !56 / 25 & $AE 56 / 25 & $Y 56 / 25‬‬
‫‪3 : $Y‬‬ ‫‪75 & +‬‬
‫‪*$S 18 / 75‬‬
‫‪,$C !42 / 19 & $AE 42 / 19 & $Y 42 / 19‬‬
‫‪4 : $Y‬‬ ‫‪!56 / 25 & +‬‬
‫"‬
‫‪*$S 14 / 06‬‬
‫ﺑﺎ ﺟﻤﻊ ﻛﺮﺩﻥ ﻣﺮﺍﺣﻞ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﻣﺤﻘﻖ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺩﺭ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻴﻢ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪:‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪$YT‬‬

‫ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﺍﻭﻝ‪$Y‬‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﺍﻭﻝ‪! $Y‬‬ ‫‪ ! ...‬ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﺩﻭﻡ‪! $Y‬‬

‫ﺑﺎ ﺟﺎﻳﮕﺰﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻃﻪ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻴﻢ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪:‬‬

‫‪١٠٠‬‬ ‫‪+ ٧٥‬‬ ‫=‪+ ٥٦/٢٥ + ......‬‬

‫‪.‬‬ ‫‪.‬‬ ‫‪.‬‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﺍﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺁﻣﺪﻩ‪ ،‬ﺭﻭﺍﺑﻂ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺍﺭﻳﻢ‪:‬‬

‫‪$I‬‬ ‫!‬ ‫‪MPC.$Y‬‬ ‫!‬ ‫‪MPC.$Y ! ......‬‬

‫ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﺍﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﺍﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﺩﻭﻡ‬

‫ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ﻣﺮﺍﺣﻞ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺩﺭ ﻳﻜﺪﻳﮕﺮ ﺟﺎﻳﮕﺰﻳﻦ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﻧﺪ‪:‬‬

‫‪$YT‬‬
‫! ‪$I‬‬
‫! ‪MPC.$I‬‬
‫! ) ‪MPC ( MPC.$I‬‬
‫! ‪MPC /MPC ( MPC.$I )0‬‬
‫‪..............‬‬
‫ﺑﺎ ﺳﺎﺩﻩ ﻛﺮﺩﻥ ﺭﻭﺍﺑﻂ ﻓﻮﻕ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻴﻢ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪:‬‬
‫‪$YT‬‬
‫! ‪$I‬‬
‫! ‪MPC.$I‬‬
‫! ‪MPC 2 .$I‬‬
‫! ‪MPC 3 .$I‬‬
‫! ‪MPC 4 .$I‬‬
‫‪.................‬‬
‫ﺑﺎ ﺟﻤﻊ ﺑﺴﺘﻦ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕﻫﺎ ﺩﺍﺭﻳﻢ‪:‬‬

‫‪$YT‬‬ ‫‪$I (1 ! MPC ! MPC 2 ! MPC 3 ! .... ! MPC N "1‬‬

‫ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﻪ ﻓﻮﻕ ﻳﻚ ﺗﺼﺎﻋﺪﻱ ﻫﻨﺪﺳﻲ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎﺩﮔﻲ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﺁﻥ‬
‫ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺭﺍ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻛﺮﺩ‪:‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪$YT‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪$YT‬‬ ‫( ‪$I‬‬ ‫ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﻓﺰﺍﻳﻨﺪﻩ ‪) #‬‬ ‫‪٤‬‬
‫‪1 " MPC‬‬ ‫‪$I‬‬ ‫‪1 " MPC‬‬ ‫‪١-٠/٧٥‬‬

‫‪$‬‬
 ‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﻓﺰﺍﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺟﺒﺮﻱ ﻭ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻣﺤﺎﺳـﺒﻪ‬
‫ﻛﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﻗﺴﻤﺖ ﻗﺒﻠﻲ‪ ،‬ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﻪ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺑﺪﺳﺖ ﺁﻣﺪ‪.‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪Y$‬‬ ‫‪a "I‬‬ ‫!‬
‫! ‪1 # a1‬‬

‫ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺸﺘﻖﮔﻴﺮﻱ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ )‪ (I‬ﺩﺍﺭﻳﻢ‪:‬‬

‫‪%Y‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪$‬‬ ‫‪$4‬‬
‫‪%I‬‬ ‫‪1 # a1‬‬

‫ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺟﺒﺮﻱ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻔﺴﻴﺮ ﺩﻳﮕﺮﻱ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺮﺍﺝ ﻧﻤﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﻪ‬
‫ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ‪ I‬ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ‪ %I‬ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪ y ،‬ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ‪ %Y‬ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪،‬‬
‫ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ‪:‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫( ‪+ 1‬‬ ‫( ‪+ 1‬‬
‫‪Y " %Y $‬‬ ‫)) ‪(a " I " %I ) , Y " %Y # Y $‬‬ ‫)) ‪&&(a " I " %I ) #‬‬ ‫) ‪&&(a " I‬‬
‫‪1 # a1‬‬ ‫' ‪* 1 # a1‬‬ ‫' ‪* 1 # a1‬‬
‫ﺑﺎ ﺳﺎﺩﻩ ﺳﺎﺯﻱ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻮﻕ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻴﻢ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪:‬‬
‫( ‪+ 1‬‬ ‫‪%Y‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫) ‪%Y $‬‬ ‫‪&(%I ) ,‬‬ ‫‪$‬‬
‫' ‪*1# a‬‬ ‫‪%I‬‬ ‫‪1 # a1‬‬

‫*)('& ‪:(3#-4/56 &7*89+,-./0 1/2 -#) !"# $%‬‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﻗﺴﻤﺖ ﻗﺒﻠﻲ ﻓﺮﺽ ﺑﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﻣﻘـﺪﺍﺭ ﺛـﺎﺑﺘﻲ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺧﺘﻴـﺎﺭ ﻣـﻲﻛﻨـﺪ‪ ،‬ﺣـﺎﻝ‬
‫ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﻣﺜﺒﺘﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﻣﺠﺪﺩﺍﹰ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠـﻲ ﺭﺍ ﺑـﻪ‬
‫ﺷﺮﺡ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺑﺪﺳﺖ ﺁﻭﺭﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪AE $ Y $ C " I " G " X # M‬‬

‫ﻭ‬
‫‪C $ a " a1Y‬‬
‫‪dI‬‬
‫‪I $ I " eY‬‬ ‫‪,‬‬ ‫‪$e-0‬‬
‫‪dY‬‬
‫‪G$ X $M $0‬‬
‫ﺑﺎ ﺟﺎﻳﮕﺰﺍﺭﻱ ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ﻓﻮﻕ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻴﻢ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪:‬‬
‫‪AE $ Y $ C " I $ a " (a " e)Y " I‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪Y (1 # a # i ) $ a " I , Y $‬‬ ‫) ‪(a " I‬‬
‫‪1# a # e‬‬
‫ﻭ ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ ﺑﺎ‪:‬‬

‫‪%‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪%Y +‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫(‬

‫)‪$‬‬ ‫&‬
‫' ‪%I * 1 # a # e‬‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﺷﻴﺐ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﻭ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﺗﺎ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ‬
‫ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺮﻱ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺁﻧﻜﻪ ﺑﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ‪ ،‬ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪ .‬ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-١٧‬ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ‬
‫ﻣﻠﻲ ﺭﺍ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪ .‬ﻃﺒﻖ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ‪ ،‬ﻫﻨﮕﺎﻣﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺗﺎﺑﻌﻲ ﺍﺯ‬
‫ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺷﻴﺐ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﻭ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﺳﻄﺢ‬
‫ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺍﺯ ‪ Y0‬ﺑﻪ ‪ Y1‬ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪.‬‬

‫?>'‪3#-4 /56 &7*89+,-./0 1/2 -# !"# $% &'()* 7% @%-AB :(2-17)7*%‬‬

‫‪C ،I ،AE‬‬

‫‪AE=C+I0+ ey‬‬

‫‪E1‬‬ ‫‪AE=C+I0‬‬
‫‪C‬‬
‫‪E0‬‬

‫‪Y0‬‬ ‫‪Y1‬‬
‫‪Y‬‬

‫*)('& ‪(3)$% <"# -# =7-". - :.;7% &'()*) !"#+0‬‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﮕﻮ‪ ،‬ﺑﺨﺶ ﺩﻭﻟﺘﻲ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻣﺎ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﺳـﺎﺩﻩﺳـﺎﺯﻱ ﻭ ﺩﺭﻙ ﺑﻬﺘـﺮ ﺍﻟﮕـﻮ‬
‫ﻧﺨﺴﺖ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ )‪ (G0‬ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷـﺪﻩ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺁﻣـﺪﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺎﻟﻴـﺎﺗﻲ‬
‫ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺣﺬﻑ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﻗﺴﻤﺖ ﺑﻌﺪﻱ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪﻫﺎ ﻫﻤﺰﻣﺎﻥ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﻣـﻲﺷـﻮﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺑـﻪ‬
‫ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻗﺴﻤﺖ ﻓﺮﺽ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ ﻭ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﻧﻤﻲﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫!‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪(G0) C)$% =7-". -# -DEB !"# +0 &'()* -‬‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﮕﻮ ﻓﺮﺽ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -١‬ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -٢‬ﺑﺨﺶ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻲ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻧﺪﺍﺭﺩ‪( X $ M $ o) .‬‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﻛﻞ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺑﺎ‪:‬‬

‫‪AE $ C " I " G‬‬

‫‪AE $ Y‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺩﺍﺭﻳﻢ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺭﺍ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-١٨‬ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺩ‪:‬‬

‫?>'‪(G) 3)$% =7-". -# -DEB !"# +0 &'()* 7% @%-AB :(2-18)7*%‬‬

‫‪C+I+G‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻱ ﺳﻪ ﺑﺨﺸﻲ ‪AE1 =C+I+G‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻱ ﺩﻭ ﺑﺨﺸﻲ‬
‫‪G‬‬ ‫‪AE0 =C+I‬‬

‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪Y0‬‬ ‫‪Y1‬‬

‫ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ ﻓﻮﻕ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻣﻼﺣﻈـﻪ ﻣـﻲﺷـﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺑـﺎ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﺷـﺪﻥ ﻣﺨـﺎﺭﺝ ﺩﻭﻟـﺖ)‪ (G 0‬ﺳـﻄﺢ‬
‫ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻣﺎ ﭼﺮﺍ ﺑﺎ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﻛﺮﺩﻥ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ )ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ( ﺯﻳـﺎﺩ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ؟‬
‫ﭘﺎﺳﺦ ﺁﻥ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ‪ ،‬ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﺯﻳﺎﺩ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ ﭼﻮﻥ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ‬
‫ﺍﺷﺘﻐﺎﻝ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻧﺪﺍﺭﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻱ ﻛﻴﻨﺰﻱ ﺑﻪ ﻫﺮ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ )ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ( ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﺑـﺪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴـﺪ‬
‫ﻧﻴﺰ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻳﺎﻓﺖ‪.‬‬

‫‪"#‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪)-. 30-50‬‬

‫ﺑﺎ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﺷﺪﻥ ‪ G‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﮕﻮ‪ ،‬ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺳﻴﺎﺳـﺖ ﻣـﺎﻟﻲ ﺩﻭﻟـﺖ ﺭﺍ ﻣﻌﺮﻓـﻲ ﻧﻤـﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺳﻴﺎﺳـﺖ‬
‫ﻣﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﺑﻪ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﻪ ﺗﺪﺍﺑﻴﺮﻱ ﺍﻃﻼﻕ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ‪ G‬ﻭ ﻳﺎ ‪ T‬ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﺗﻐﻴﻴـﺮ ﻫﻤﺰﻣـﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﺭﺳﻴﺪﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﻛﻼﻥ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻣﻲﮔﺮﺩﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-١٩‬ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺑﮕﻴﺮﻳﺪ‪ .‬ﻓﺮﺽ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ‪ Y0‬ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ ،‬ﺍﻣـﺎ‬
‫ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﻗﺼﺪ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﺁﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻌـﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺍﺷـﺘﻐﺎﻝ ﻛﺎﻣـﻞ )‪ (FFN‬ﺍﻓـﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺩﻫـﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﺠﺎﺋﻴﻜـﻪ‬
‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺍﺷﺘﻐﺎﻝ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ ،‬ﺍﺧﺘﻼﻑ ‪ YFN – Y0‬ﺑـﻪ »ﺷـﻜﺎﻑ ﺭﻛـﻮﺩﻱ«‬
‫ﻣﺸﻬﻮﺭ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺍﺯ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺑﺮﺩﻥ ﺷﻜﺎﻑ ﺭﻛﻮﺩﻱ ﻭ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴـﺪ ﺭﺍ ﺑـﻪ‬
‫ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ‪ %Y‬ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺩﻫﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﺴﺘﻠﺰﻡ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ‪ G‬ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ‪ %G‬ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷـﺪ‪ .‬ﺑـﻪ ﻋﺒـﺎﺭﺕ‬
‫ﺩﻳﮕﺮ‪ ،‬ﺍﮔﺮ ‪ G‬ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ‪ %G‬ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻛﻨﺪ ﺁﻧﮕﺎﻩ ‪ Y‬ﺑـﻪ ﺍﻧـﺪﺍﺯﻩ ‪ %Y‬ﻭ ﻃﺒـﻖ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟـﻪ ﺯﻳـﺮ ﺗﻐﻴﻴـﺮ‬
‫‪١‬‬
‫ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻛﺮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪%Y $ %G .‬‬
‫‪1 # mpc‬‬

‫?>'‪:.;7% /# )-. 30-50 @->F* /4* :(2-19)7*%‬‬

‫‪Y $ AE $ C " I " G " %G‬‬

‫‪E1‬‬
‫‪" %G AE $ C " I " G‬‬

‫‪E0‬‬ ‫‪C‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫‪%Y $‬‬
‫‪1 # MPC‬‬ ‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪Y0‬‬ ‫‪YFN‬‬
‫ﺷﻜﺎﻑ ﺭﻛﻮﺩﻱ‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ ،(٢-٢٠‬ﻋﻜﺲ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ ﻗﺒﻠﻲ‪ ،‬ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺍﺷﺘﻐﺎﻝ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ )‪ (YFN‬ﻛﻤﺘﺮ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻄﺢ‬
‫ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺟﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ )‪ (Y0‬ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ )‪ (Y0 – YFN‬ﺑﻪ »ﺷﻜﺎﻑ ﺗﻮﺭﻣﻲ« ﻣﺸﻬﻮﺭ‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫‪– Recessionary Gap‬‬

‫‪"$‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ‪ G‬ﻣﻲﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ‪ %G‬ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﻳﺎﺑﺪ ﺗﺎ ‪ Y‬ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ‪ %Y‬ﻭ ﻃﺒﻖ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﻪ‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪ %Y $ %G .‬ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪.‬‬
‫‪1 # MPC‬‬

‫?>'‪K.-L @-MCN* O* /B*/2 :5)'B @%-AB :(2-20)7*%‬‬

‫‪C , I , AE‬‬

‫‪AE $ C " I " G‬‬

‫‪AE‬‬

‫‪%G‬‬
‫‪AE1‬‬ ‫‪%Y‬‬
‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪YFN‬‬ ‫‪Y0‬‬
‫ﺷﻜﺎﻑ ﺗﻮﺭﻣﻲ‬

‫*)('& ‪(T) G-5)-. $ (G0) =7-". -# !"#+0‬‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻗﺴﻤﺖ‪ ،‬ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕﻫﺎ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻱ ﺳﻪ ﺑﺨﺸﻲ ﺍﺿﺎﻓﻪ ﻣﻲﺷـﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻣـﺎ ﻗﺒـﻞ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻥ ﻻﺯﻡ ﺑـﻪ‬
‫ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺢ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕﻫﺎ ﺑﺮ ﺩﻭ ﻧﻮﻉ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ‪:‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪(LST) :-HI, G-5)-. (1‬‬

‫ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺗﻲ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﻭ ﻳﻜﺠﺎ ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑـﻪ ﺳـﻄﺢ ﺩﺭﺁﻣـﺪ ﺍﺯ ﺑﻨﮕـﺎﻩ ﻭ ﻳـﺎ ﻓـﺮﺩ‬
‫ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﻣﻲ ﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪ :(2 PT ) J0-EB G-5)-. (2‬ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺗﻲ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻣﺘﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺑﺎ ﺩﺭﺁﻣـﺪ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻓـﺮﺍﺩ ﻳـﺎ ﺑﻨﮕـﺎﻩﻫـﺎ ﺩﺭﻳﺎﻓـﺖ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﻃﺒﻖ ﺍﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻓﺮﺿﻲ ﻣﻨﺪﺭﺝ ﺩﺭ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ )‪ ،(٢-٥‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻮﻉ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻬﺘﺮ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺢ ﺩﺍﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ )‪ :(٢-٥‬ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺗﻨﺎﺳﺒﻲ‬

‫ﺳﻄﺢ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ‬

‫‪Y / 100,000‬‬ ‫‪T $ 0.1 Y‬‬

‫‪100,000 / Y / 200 / 000‬‬ ‫‪T $ 0.15Y‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫‪- Lump sum Tax‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪- Proportional Tax‬‬

‫‪"%‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﺳﺘﻮﻥ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻁ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ‪ Y‬ﻧﺮﺥ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﻲ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﻃﺒﻖ‬
‫ﺍﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻣﻨﺪﺭﺝ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ‪ ،‬ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻛﻤﺘﺮ ﺍﺯ ‪ ١٠٠،٠٠٠‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ %١ ،‬ﺍﺯ ﺁﻥ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﻭ ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺍﺯ ‪ ١٠٠،٠٠٠‬ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﻭ ﻛﻤﺘﺮ ﺍﺯ ‪ ٢٠٠،٠٠٠‬ﺑﺎﺷﺪ؛ ‪ ١٥‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺍﺯ‬
‫ﻛﻞ ﻣﺒﻠﻎ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ‪ ،‬ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﺧﺬ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪&%-PCR* &-S/5MC. /# T; /54UB $ G-5)-. -‬‬

‫ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺑﺮ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ ﺍﺛﺮ ﻣﻲﮔﺬﺍﺭﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻨﺠﺎ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﺁﻥ ﺑﺮ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻭ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻱ ﺳﻪ ﺑﺨﺶ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺳﺎﺩﻩ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﻥ‬
‫ﻣﻄﻠﺐ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﺑﺘﺪﺍ ﺍﺛﺮ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﻳﻜﺠﺎ )ﺛﺎﺑﺖ( ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﻳﻜﺠﺎ‪ ،‬ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺗﺼﺮﻑ ﺍﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﺤﻮﻩ ﺍﺛﺮﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺧﻼﺻﻪ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪:‬‬

‫‪LST 2 , Yd 0, C 0‬‬ ‫‪(Y d $ Y # T ) 1 C 0 , S 0‬‬

‫ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﻳﻜﺠﺎ ﺑﺮ ﺷﻴﺐ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺍﺛﺮ ﻧﺪﺍﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻋﺮﺽ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺒﺪﺃ ﺁﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﻲ‬
‫ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺗﻨﺎﺳﺒﻲ ﮔﺮﭼﻪ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮﻱ ﺑﺮ ﻋﺮﺽ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺒﺪﺃ ﻧﺪﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻣﺎ ﺷﻴﺐ ﺗـﺎﺑﻊ ﺭﺍ ﺗﻐﻴﻴـﺮ ﻣـﻲﺩﻫـﺪ‪ ،‬ﺑـﻪ‬
‫ﻃﻮﺭ ﻛﻠﻲ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ ،(٢-٢١‬ﺍﺛﺮ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪ .‬ﻃﺒﻖ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ‪ ،‬ﺑﻌـﺪ‬
‫ﺍﺯ ﺍﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﻳﻜﺠﺎ ﺑﺮ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ‪ ،‬ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﭘﺎﻳﻴﻦ ﻣﻨﺘﻘﻞ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫‪&'() *+,+) '- ./01 2.34.) '5! :(2-21) !"#$%‬‬

‫‪C‬‬ ‫ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ‪C0‬‬

‫‪C1‬‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ‬

‫ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ‪LST‬‬

‫ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ ،(٢-٢٢‬ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻪ ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻱ ﺩﻭ ﺑﺨﺸﻲ)‪ ،(YE‬ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻱ ﺳﻪ ﺑﺨﺸﻲ ﺑﺎ‬

‫ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﻭ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺻﻔﺮ ) ‪ (Y E 3‬ﻭ ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻱ ﺳﻪ ﺑﺨﺸﻲ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﻭ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ) ‪(Y E‬‬

‫&"‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﺠﺎﺋﻴﻜﻪ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺩﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﺍﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻳﻚ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ‬
‫ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺩﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﺍﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻳﻚ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻤﺘﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ ،‬ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺑﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻱ ﺩﻭ ﺑﺨﺸﻲ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺮﻱ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪2.34.) .- *67- 89 :#;4! " *<) =)> " ?".@A :(2-22) !"#$%‬‬

‫‪Y " AE‬‬

‫‪AE G I C‬‬
‫‪E‬‬ ‫‪AET "0 " C ! I ! G‬‬
‫‪$T AE‬‬
‫‪E‬‬ ‫‪T #0 " C ! I ! G‬‬

‫‪AE " C ! I‬‬

‫‪E‬‬

‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪YE‬‬ ‫‪YE YE‬‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ‪ ،‬ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ‪ ، $T‬ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ‪ $Y‬ﺷﺪﻩ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺖ‪:‬‬
‫‪% $T‬‬
‫" ‪$Y‬‬
‫‪1 % mpc‬‬

‫ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﺭﻭﺷﻦ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﻥ ﻧﺤﻮﻩ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺑﺮ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ‪ ،‬ﻓﺮﺽ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‬
‫ﻛﻪ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ‪ ٢٠‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺩﻫﺪ ﻭ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ‪ MPC‬ﻫﻤﺎﻧﻨﺪ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﻗﺒﻠﻲ‬
‫‪ ٠/٧٥‬ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺳﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺑﻪ ﭼﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ‬
‫ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺑﺎﻋﺚ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺩﺭ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺗﺼﺮﻑ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ‪ ٢٠‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﻳﻚ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ )ﺗﻮﻣﺎﻥ( ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺑﺎﻋﺚ ‪ ٠/٧٥‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻭ‬
‫‪ ٠/٢٥‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺩﺭ ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ‪ ٢٠ ،‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺩﺭ‪)Y‬ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ(‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻋﺚ ‪١٥‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺩﺭ ‪ C‬ﻭ ‪ ٥‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺩﺭ ‪ S‬ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ ﺍﺛﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﭼﻬﺎﺭﭼﻮﺏ ﻣﺮﺍﺣﻞ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺤﺚ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪:‬‬

‫!‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫)'‪:?B! 8<C‬‬
‫‪ LST‬ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ‪ ٢٠‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪.‬‬
‫‪ YD‬ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ‪ ٢٠‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‬
‫‪ C‬ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ‪ ١٥‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪.‬‬
‫‪ S‬ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ‪ ٥‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪.‬‬

‫ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ )‪ (AE‬ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ‪ ١٥‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪.‬‬

‫ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ )‪ (Y‬ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ‪ ١٥‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﺼﺮﻑﻛﻨﻨﺪﮔﺎﻥ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ‪ ١٥‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫)'‪:DB" 8<C‬‬
‫ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ‪ ١٥‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ‪ ١١/٢٥‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ‪ ٣/٧٥‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪.‬‬

‫ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ )‪ ١١/٢٥ (AE‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪.‬‬

‫ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ )‪ ١١/٢٥ (Y‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪.‬‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﺼﺮﻑﻛﻨﻨﺪﮔﺎﻥ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ‪ ١١/٢٥‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫)'‪:D#9 8<C‬‬
‫ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ )ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ(‪ ١١/٢٥ ،‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ‪ ٨/٤٤‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ‪ ٢/٨‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ )‪ ٨/٤٤ (AE‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ )‪ ٨/٤٤ (Y‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫"‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﻭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺮﺍﺣﻞ ﺗﺎ ﺍﻧﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﻣﺮﺍﺣﻞ ﻣﺰﺑﻮﺭ ﺭﺍ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺧﻼﺻﻪ‬
‫ﻧﻤﻮﺩ‪:‬‬
‫'& ‪ ١٥) C‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ( '& ‪ ٢٠ YD‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ( '( ‪ ٢٠ LST‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ‪ :‬ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﺍﻭﻝ‬ ‫‪ ١٥‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ & ‪Y‬‬

‫& ‪ ٥) S‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ(‬
‫& ‪ ١١/٢٥ C‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ‪+‬‬
‫* '& ‪ ١٥) Y‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ( ‪ :‬ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﺩﻭﻡ‬ ‫‪ ١١/٢٥‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ & ‪' ١١/٢٥ AE &' Y‬‬
‫& ‪ ٣/٧٥ S‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ )‬

‫‪ ٨/٤٤‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ‬
‫‪+‬‬ ‫&‪C‬‬
‫‪ ٢/٨‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ* '& ‪ ١١/٢٥ Y‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ‪ :‬ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﺳﻮﻡ‬ ‫‪ ٨/٤٤‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ & ‪ ٨/٤٤ AE &' Y‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ '‬
‫)‬ ‫&‪S‬‬

‫‪ ٦/٣٣‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ‬
‫‪+‬‬ ‫&‪C‬‬
‫‪ ٢/١١‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ * '& ‪ ٨/٤٤ Y‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ‪ :‬ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﭼﻬﺎﺭﻡ‬ ‫‪ ٦/٣٣‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ & ‪' ٦/٣٣ AE &' Y‬‬
‫)‬ ‫&‪S‬‬
‫ﻭ‬

‫ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ )‪ (Y‬ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﻫﺮ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺑﺎ ﻳﻜﺪﻳﮕﺮ ﺟﻤﻊ‬
‫ﻛﺮﺩ‪:‬‬

‫" ! ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ‪ ! $Y٢‬ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ‪$Y " $Y١‬‬

‫‪$Y " mpc $T# ! mpc(mpc.$T ) ! mpc 3 .$T0 ! ...‬‬

‫ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﻪ ﻓﻮﻕ ﻳﻚ ﺗﺼﺎﻋﺪ ﻫﻨﺪﺳﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺟﻤﻊ ﺯﺩﻥ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﻣﻲﺁﻳﺪ‪:‬‬
‫‪1 % mpc . % mpc $T#‬‬
‫‪$Y " $T# //‬‬ ‫" ‪,,‬‬
‫‪0 1 % mpc -‬‬ ‫‪1 % mpc‬‬

‫ﺑﺪﻳﻦ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ‪ ،‬ﺷﻜﺎﻑ ﺗﻮﺭﻣﻲ ﻭ ﺭﻛﻮﺩﻱ ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻧﻨﺪ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﻭ ﻣﺎﻟﻴـﺎﺕ ﺍﺯ ﺑـﻴﻦ‬
‫ﺑﺮﻭﻧﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪EF!#G) 8H"#- I=+1!JK! L1'M‬‬

‫ﺑﺎ ﻓﺮﺽ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕﻫﺎ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﻣﻨﺒﻊ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺗﻮﺍﺯﻥ ﺑﻮﺩﺟﻪ ﻫﻨﮕﺎﻣﻲ ﺑﺮﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﺷـﻮﺩ‬
‫ﻛﻪ‪:‬‬

‫‪T %G " 0'T " G‬‬

‫‪#‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ‪ G 2 T‬ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺑﺎ ﻛﺴﺮﻱ ﻭ ﺍﮔﺮ ‪ T 2 G‬ﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺎﺯﺍﺩ ﺑﻮﺩﺟﻪ‬
‫ﻣﻮﺍﺟﻪ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﻟﺬﺍ ﻛﺴﺮﻱ ﺑﻮﺩﺟﻪ ﺭﺍ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮﺡ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﻛﺮﺩ‪:‬‬
‫‪١‬‬
‫‪BD " T % G‬‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺗﻲ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ‪ ٣٠‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﻛﻞ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪﻫﺎﻱ ﺩﻭﻟﺘﻲ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﺑﻘﻴﻪﻱ‬
‫ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪﻫﺎﻱ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﻧﻔﺖ ﻭ ﮔﺎﺯ ﺗﺄﻣﻴﻦ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﮔﺮ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪﻫﺎﻱ ﻧﻔﺘﻲ ﺣﺬﻑ‬
‫ﺷﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺑﻮﺩﺟﻪ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻫﻤﻮﺍﺭﻩ ﺑﺎ ﻛﺴﺮﻱ ﻣﻮﺍﺟﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ‪ ،‬ﻓﺮﻣﻮﻝ ‪BD " T % G‬‬

‫ﺑﺎ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻓﺮﺽ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕﻫﺎ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺣﺎﻝ ﺳﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ؛ ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻩﻱ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕﻫﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺩﻫﺪ‪،‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ‪ $Y‬ﺑﻪ ﭼﻪ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻩ ﺯﻳﺎﺩ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ؟ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﭘﺎﺳﺦ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺳﻮﺍﻝ ﺩﺍﺭﻳﻢ‪:‬‬
‫‪$Y1 $Y2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪% mpc 1 % mpc‬‬
‫" ‪BD‬‬ ‫!‬ ‫"‬ ‫!‬ ‫"‬ ‫‪"1‬‬
‫‪$G TT# 1 % mpc 1 % mpc 1 % mpc‬‬

‫ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ‪:‬‬
‫‪$Y " $G " $T‬‬
‫ﺑﻪ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ‪ ،‬ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ‪ ،‬ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻭ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕﻫﺎ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﻳﻚ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺩﻫﺪ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ‬
‫ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻩ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﻓﻮﻕ ﺭﺍ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺍﺯ ﺭﻭﺵ ﺟﺒﺮﻱ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺁﻭﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻣﺮ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺑﺘﺪﺍ ﻻﺯﻡ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺖ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮﺡ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺑﺪﺳﺖ ﺁﻳﺪ‪:‬‬

‫‪AE " C ! I ! G‬‬

‫ﺑﺎ ﺟﺎﻳﮕﺰﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﺟﺰﺍﺀ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ‪ ،‬ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻴﻢ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪:‬‬

‫‪C " a 0 ! a1Y‬‬ ‫‪,‬‬ ‫‪YD " Y % T‬‬

‫‪AE " Y " a 0 ! a1 (Y % T0 ) ! I 0 ! G0‬‬
‫‪Y " a 0 ! a1 (Y % T ) ! I 0 ! G0 ' Y (1 % a1 ) " a 0 ! a1T0 ! I ! G0‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﻪ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ‬
‫"‪Y‬‬ ‫) ‪(a0 ! a1T0 ! I 0 ! G0‬‬
‫‪1 % a0‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫‪Budget Deficit‬‬
 ‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﻪ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺿﺮﺍﻳﺐ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ‪ ،‬ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ )ﻣـﺴﺘﻘﻞ(‬
‫ﻭ ﺑﻮﺩﺟﻪ ﻣﺘﻮﺍﺯﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺁﻭﺭﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪$Y‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪$Y‬‬ ‫‪% a1‬‬ ‫‪% mpc‬‬
‫"‬ ‫‪%‬‬ ‫"‬ ‫"‬
‫‪$G# 1 % a1‬‬ ‫‪$T# 1 % a1 1 % mpc‬‬
‫‪$y‬‬ ‫‪$y 1 % a1 1 % mpc‬‬
‫ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺑﻮﺩﺟﻪ ﻣﺘﻮﺍﺯﻥ‬ ‫!‬ ‫"‬ ‫"‬ ‫‪"1‬‬
‫‪$G $T0 1 % a1 1 % mpc‬‬

‫ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﻓﻮﻕ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎ ﻓﺮﺽ ﺍﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕﻫﺎﻱ ﻳﻜﺠﺎ )ﺛﺎﺑﺖ( ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺁﻣﺪﻩ‪ ،‬ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻌﻨﻲ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺍﮔﺮ‬
‫ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺗﻲ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺧﺮﺝ ﻛﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴـﺰﺍﻥ ﻣﺨـﺎﺭﺝ ﺩﻭﻟـﺖ ﺍﻓـﺰﺍﻳﺶ‬
‫ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ‪ ،‬ﺍﮔﺮ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ‪ ٢٠‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻣﺎﻟﻴـﺎﺕ ﺍﺧـﺬ ﻧﻤﺎﻳـﺪ ﻭ ‪ ٢٠‬ﻭﺍﺣـﺪ‬
‫ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﺪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻩ ‪ ٢٠‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﺍﻓـﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺑﻮﺩﺟـﻪ‬
‫ﻣﺘﻮﺍﺯﻥ ‪ ١‬ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﻗﺒﻼﹰ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺑﻮﺩﺟﻪ ﻣﺘﻮﺍﺯﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﻫﺎﻱ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﻣـﺴﺎﻭﻱ‬
‫ﻳﻚ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﺑﻮﺩﺟﻪ ﻣﺘﻮﺍﺯﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﺍﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻣﺎﻟﻴـﺎﺕ ﺗﻨﺎﺳـﺒﻲ ﻣـﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺮﺭﺳـﻲ‬
‫ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺗﻨﺎﺳﺒﻲ‪ ،‬ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺩﺭ ﺧﺼﻮﺹ ﺍﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﺯ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﺯﻳـﺮ ﺍﺳـﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ‬
‫ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪T " ty‬‬

‫ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ ‪ t‬ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ ،(٢-٢٣‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﻪ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺼﻮﻳﺮ ﻣﻲﻛﺸﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪8H"#- E!#A B "!F.) N:'OP N*R9.+A 2.34.) :(2-23) !"#$%‬‬

‫‪T ,G‬‬

‫‪T " ty‬‬

‫ﻣﺎﺯﺍﺩ ﺑﻮﺩﺟﻪ‬

‫‪G " G#‬‬

‫{ ﻛﺴﺮﻱ ﺑﻮﺩﺟﻪ‬

‫‪Y#‬‬ ‫‪Y‬‬

‫‪$‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺍﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﺩﻭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﻣﺎﺑﻴﻦ ‪ T‬ﻭ ‪ G‬ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﺯ ‪ Y‬ﻛﺴﺮﻱ ﻭ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻥ‪ ،‬ﻣﺎﺯﺍﺩ ﺭﺍ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪ .‬ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﺯﻳﺮ‪ ،‬ﻧﺤﻮﻩ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻛﺴﺮﻱ ﻳﺎ ﻣﺎﺯﺍﺩ ﺭﺍ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ‪.‬‬
‫‪ty 2‬‬ ‫‪t‬‬
‫! ‪ = " (ty G )dy‬ﻛﺴﺮﻱ ﻳﺎ ﻣﺎﺯﺍﺩ ﺑﻮﺩﺟﻪ‬ ‫( ! ‪GY‬‬ ‫‪G )Y‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫ﺑﺎ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﺷﺪﻥ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺗﻨﺎﺳﺒﻲ ﺩﺭ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺷﻴﺐ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻛﻢ ﻣـﻲ ﺷـﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺑـﺎ ﺍﻋﻤـﺎﻝ‬
‫ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺗﻨﺎﺳﺒﻲ ﺑﺮ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻬﺘﺮ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﻣﻼﺣﻈﻪ ﻛﺮﺩ‪:‬‬

‫) ‪C ! a # a1 (YD‬‬

‫ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﺠﺎﺋﻴﻜﻪ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺗﺼﺮﻑ ﻣﺴﺎﻭﻱ ‪ YD=Y-T‬ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎ ﺟـﺎﻳﮕﺰﺍﺭﻱ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟـﻪ ﻣﺎﻟﻴـﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺗﻨﺎﺳﺒﻲ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻴﻢ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪:‬‬

‫‪C ! a # a1 (Y‬‬ ‫‪tY ) ! a # a1 (1 t )Y‬‬

‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻜﺘﻪ ﺭﺍ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺩﺭ ﺷﻴﺐ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻣـﺼﺮﻑ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻤـﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-٢٤‬ﻧﻴـﺰ ﻧـﺸﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺩﺍﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪!"# $%&' !% ()*&+' ,&-.&# /&012 :(2-24) !"#$%‬‬

‫‪C‬‬

‫‪C ! a # a1Y‬‬ ‫!‪T‬‬

‫‪C ! a # a1Y‬‬ ‫‪T$‬‬

‫‪Y‬‬

‫ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺁﻭﺭﺩﻥ ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺑﻮﺩﺟﻪ ﻣﺘﻮﺍﺯﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺣﺎﻟـﺖ‪ ،‬ﺍﺑﺘـﺪﺍ ﺗـﺎﺑﻊ ﻣﺎﻟﻴـﺎﺕ ﺑـﻪ‬
‫ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﻣﻲﺷـﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺳـﭙﺲ ﺑـﺎ ﺍﻋﻤـﺎﻝ ﺁﻥ ﺗﻌـﺎﺩﻝ ﺩﺭﺁﻣـﺪ ﻣﻠـﻲ ﺍﺳـﺘﺨﺮﺍﺝ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪:‬‬
‫‪T=T0+ty‬‬

‫‪AE ! Y ! C # I # G‬‬ ‫ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ‪:‬‬

‫&‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪C ! C # a (Y‬‬ ‫)‪T‬‬

‫‪T ! T # ty‬‬ ‫ﺑﺎ ﺟﺎﻳﮕﺰﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﺟﺰﺍﺀ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺩﺭ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺩﺍﺭﻳﻢ‪:‬‬
‫‪Y ! C # a (Y‬‬ ‫‪T‬‬ ‫‪tY ) # I # G‬‬
‫‪C # (a 1)Y‬‬ ‫‪aT‬‬ ‫‪atY # I # G ! 0‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫!‪Y‬‬ ‫& ‪%C # I # G # aT0‬‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺍﺯ‪:‬‬
‫‪1 a # at‬‬
‫ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺁﻭﺭﺩﻥ ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﻓﺰﺍﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﺑﻮﺩﺟـﻪ ﻣﺘـﻮﺍﺯﻥ‪ ،‬ﺍﺯ ﺗﻌـﺎﺩﻝ ﺩﺭﺁﻣـﺪ ﻣﻠـﻲ ﺍﺑﺘـﺪﺍ‬
‫ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ‪ G‬ﻭ ﺳﭙﺲ ﺑﻪ ‪ T0‬ﻣﺸﺘﻖ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪:‬‬
‫‪dY‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫!‬ ‫‪'1‬‬
‫‪dG 1 a # at‬‬
‫‪dY‬‬ ‫‪a‬‬
‫!‬
‫‪dT 1 a # at‬‬

‫ﺑﺎ ﺟﻤﻊ ﺑﺴﺘﻦ ﺩﻭ ﻣﺸﺘﻖ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺁﻣﺪﻩ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻴﻢ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪:‬‬

‫‪dY dY‬‬ ‫‪1 a‬‬
‫‪#‬‬ ‫!‬ ‫‪(1‬‬
‫‪dG dT 1 a # at‬‬

‫ﺑﺪﻳﻦ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ‪ ،‬ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﻓﺰﺍﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﺑﻮﺩﺟﻪ ﻣﺘﻮﺍﺯﻥ ﻛﻮﭼﻜﺘﺮ ﺍﺯ ﻳﻚ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺣﺎﻝ ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﺍﺛﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻳﻲ‬
‫ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺩﺭ ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﻓﺰﺍﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﺑﻮﺩﺟﻪ ﻣﺘﻮﺍﺯﻥ ﻟﺤﺎﻅ ﺷﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺿـﺮﻳﺐ ﻓﺰﺍﻳﻨـﺪﻩ ﺑﻮﺩﺟـﻪ‬
‫ﻣﺘﻮﺍﺯﻥ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﻣﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺑﺎ ﻳﻚ ﻣﻲﮔﺮﺩﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮﺡ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺁﻭﺭﺩ‪:‬‬
‫‪T ! G ) T # tY‬‬ ‫‪G!0‬‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﻪ ﺑﻮﺩﺟﻪ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ ﺍﺳﺖ‪:‬‬
‫‪dT # t dY‬‬ ‫‪dG ! 0 ) dT ! dG tdY‬‬ ‫ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﺩﻳﻔﺮﺍﻧﺴﻴﻞﮔﻴﺮﻱ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪:‬‬
‫ﻫﻤﺎﻧﮕﻮﻧﻪ ﻛﻪ ﻗﺒﻼﹰ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻣﺎﻟﻴـﺎﺕ ﺗﻨﺎﺳـﺒﻲ ﻋﺒـﺎﺭﺕ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺖ ﺍﺯ‪:‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫!‪Y‬‬ ‫] ‪[a # I # G a1T‬‬
‫‪1 a1 # a1t‬‬

‫ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﺑﺮ ﺣﺴﺐ ‪ G‬ﻭ ‪ T‬ﺩﻳﻔﺮﺍﻧﺴﻴﻞﮔﻴﺮﻱ ﺷﻮﺩ‪:‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫! ‪dY‬‬ ‫) ‪(dG a1 dT‬‬
‫‪1 a1 # a1t‬‬

‫ﺑﺎ ﺟﺎﻳﮕﺰﺍﺭﻱ ‪ dT0‬ﺍﺯ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﺑﻮﺩﺟﻪ ﻣﺘﻮﺍﺯﻥ ﺩﻳﻔﺮﺍﻧﻴﺴﻞﮔﻴﺮﻱ ﺷﺪﻩ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﺭﻳﻢ‪:‬‬

‫!‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫) ‪dG a1 (dG t dY‬‬

‫! ‪dY‬‬
‫‪1 a1 # a1t‬‬

‫ﺑﺎ ﺳﺎﺩﻩﺳﺎﺯﻱ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﻪ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻴﻢ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪:‬‬

‫‪dY (1 a1 # a1t ) ! dG a1 dG # a1 # dY ! dG (1 a1 ) # a1 # dY‬‬
‫‪dY‬‬
‫) ) ‪dY (1 a1 ) ! dG (1 a1‬‬ ‫‪!1‬‬
‫‪dG‬‬

‫ﻫﻨﮕﺎﻣﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﻳﻜﺠﺎ ﺍﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺑﻮﺩﺟـﻪ ﻣﺘـﻮﺍﺯﻥ ﻛﻤﺘـﺮ ﺍﺯ ﻳـﻚ‬
‫ﺑﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪dY‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫!‬ ‫‪(1‬‬
‫‪dG 1 a1 # a1t‬‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﻳﻜﺠﺎ ﺩﻳﻔﺮﺍﻧﺴﻴﻞﮔﻴﺮﻱ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ‪ T‬ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﻣﻲﮔﺮﻓﺖ ﻭ‬
‫ﺍﺛﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻳﻲ ‪ tY‬ﻟﺤﺎﻅ ﻧﻤﻲﮔﺮﺩﻳﺪ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭﺣﺎﻟﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺗﻨﺎﺳﺒﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﺛﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻳﻲ ﺁﻥ ﻧﻴﺰ‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﺪ‪.‬‬

‫'‪3456' 7 8645 9!%2!% 34!: ;2 (<# =#>5? 952?@0A /?&B‬‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﻗﺴﻤﺖ )ﺍﻟﻒ( ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ ،(٢-٢٥‬ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮﻱ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻛﻞ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ‬
‫ﻛﻞ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ ﻗﺒﻼﹰ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺩﻥ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻱ ﺳﻪ ﺑﺨﺸﻲ‬
‫ﻧﻴﺰ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﮔﺮﻓﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﻛﻨﻨﻮﻥ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﻧﻘﻄﻪ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮﻱ ﺭﻳﺰﺵ ﻭ‬
‫ﺗﺰﺭﻳﻖ ﺭﺍ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺁﻭﺭﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﻗﺴﻤﺖ »ﺏ« ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ‪ ،‬ﻧﻘﻄﻪ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻱ ﺳﻪ ﺑﺨﺸﻲ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﺯ ﺗﻘﺎﻃﻊ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲﻫﺎﻱ‬
‫ﺭﻳﺰﺵ ﻭ ﺗﺰﺭﻳﻖ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻘﻄﻪ ‪ E ٢‬ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺁﻣﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ‪ ،‬ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺭﻳﺰﺵ ﻭ ﺗﺰﺭﻳﻖ ﺑﻪ ﺷﻴﻮﻩ ﺟﺒﺮﻱ ﻧﻴـﺰ ﺍﺳـﺘﺨﺮﺍﺝ ﺷـﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪S #T ! G # I‬‬ ‫ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ‪:‬‬

‫"‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪(CD% E* 9@F.2 5? (<# =#>5? /?&B' :(2-25) 52?@0A‬‬

‫)ﺍﻟﻒ(‬
‫‪GI‬‬ ‫‪E1‬‬ ‫‪AE T ! ! C / # I # G‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻱ ﺳﻪ ﺑﺨﺸﻲ‬

‫‪AET$0 !C#I #G‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻱ ﺳﻪ ﺑﺨﺸﻲ‬

‫‪E2‬‬ ‫‪AE=C+I‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻱ ﺩﻭ ﺑﺨﺸﻲ‬

‫‪C‬‬
‫‪E3‬‬

‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪YE‬‬ ‫‪YE 2‬‬ ‫‪YE1‬‬
‫)ﺏ(‬
‫‪S, I‬‬

‫‪S* ! S # T‬‬
‫‪E2‬‬ ‫‪E1‬‬ ‫‪S‬‬
‫‪G#I‬‬
‫‪E3‬‬

‫‪a # a1t‬‬
‫‪I‬‬
‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪a‬‬ ‫‪YE‬‬ ‫‪YE 2‬‬ ‫‪YE1‬‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﺑﺘﺪﺍ‪ ،‬ﻻﺯﻡ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺗﺎ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﻣﻲﺁﻳﺪ‪:‬‬

‫‪C ! a # a1 (Y‬‬ ‫)‪T‬‬

‫‪C ! a # a1 (Y‬‬ ‫‪T‬‬ ‫) ‪tY‬‬
‫‪C!a‬‬ ‫‪a1T # a (1 t )Y‬‬
‫ﻣﻲ ﺩﺍﻧﻴﻢ ﻛﻪ ‪:‬‬

‫‪Y D ! C # S, S ! Y D‬‬ ‫‪C !Y‬‬ ‫‪T‬‬ ‫‪C‬‬

‫ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ‪:‬‬
‫‪S ! a # a1T‬‬ ‫‪T # (1 t‬‬ ‫‪a1 (1 t ))Y‬‬
‫‪S ! a # a1T‬‬ ‫‪T+ # (1 t‬‬ ‫‪a1 # a1t )Y‬‬

‫‪#‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮﻱ ﺭﻳﺰﺵ ﻭ ﺗﺰﺭﻳﻖ ﺩﺍﺭﻳﻢ‪:‬‬

‫‪a # a1T‬‬ ‫‪T # Y (1 t‬‬ ‫‪a1 (1 t ) # T, # tY ! I # G‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎﺩﮔﻲ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ‪،‬‬
‫!‪Y‬‬ ‫‪[a0‬‬ ‫] ‪a1T0 # I # G‬‬
‫) ‪1 a1 (1 t‬‬
‫ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺮﺍﺝ ﻛﺮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪(CD%5&GH 9@F.2‬‬
‫ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﺑﺎ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﻛﺮﺩﻥ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ)‪ (X‬ﻭ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ )‪ (M‬ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻱ ﺑﺴﺘﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺑﻘﻴﻪ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ ﻣﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻭ‬
‫ﺑﻪ ﺍﺻﻄﻼﺡ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻱ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ ﺑﺎﺯ ﺗﺒﺪﻳﻞ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻣﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺑﺘﺪﺍ ﻻﺯﻡ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺗﺎ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ‬
‫ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﻭ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﻳﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﮔﻴﺮﻧﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﻩ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﻭ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻒ( ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‪ :‬ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻴﺎﻥ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻱ ﺳﺎﺧﺖ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ‬
‫ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺗﻨﺪ ﺍﺯ‪:‬‬
‫‪ (١‬ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻴﺎﻥ ) ‪ : (Y -‬ﻫﺮ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻩ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻴﺎﻥ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪ ،‬ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ‬
‫ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻﺕ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻳﺎﻓﺖ‪.‬‬
‫‪dx‬‬
‫‪X ! X ( y - ),‬‬ ‫‪'0‬‬ ‫ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ‪:‬‬
‫) ‪(dy -‬‬
‫‪P‬‬
‫ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻲ‬
‫( ‪ :‬ﻫﺮ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻩ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﻧﺴﺒﻲ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻲ )‬ ‫‪ (٢‬ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻧﺴﺒﻲ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻱ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﺑﻪ‬
‫‪P‬‬
‫ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻲ‬

‫ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺸﺎﺑﻪ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻲ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪ ،‬ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻴﺎﻥ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻱ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻲ‬
‫ﻛﻤﺘﺮ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬ﻳﻌﻨﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻲ‪P‬‬ ‫‪dx‬‬ ‫‪.x‬‬
‫‪X ! f (Y - ,‬‬ ‫‪,...), - ' 0,‬‬ ‫‪(0‬‬
‫ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻲ‪P‬‬ ‫‪dy‬‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻲ‪P‬‬
‫(‪.‬‬ ‫)‬
‫ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻲ‪P‬‬

‫ﺏ( ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‪ :‬ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺧﻮﺩﻱ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻱ ﺳﺎﺧﺖ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ ﺁﻥ‬
‫ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺗﻨﺪ ﺍﺯ‪:‬‬
‫‪ (١‬ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺧﻮﺩﻱ )‪ :(Y‬ﻫﺮ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻩ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺧﻮﺩﻱ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﻫﻢ‬
‫ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻳﺎﻓﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ‬
‫‪dm‬‬
‫‪M ! m( y ),‬‬ ‫‪' 0 (٢‬‬
‫‪dy‬‬

‫‪$‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻲ‪P‬‬
‫( ‪ :‬ﻫﺮ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻩ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻧﺴﺒﻲ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻱ‬ ‫ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻲ )‬ ‫‪ (٢‬ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﻧﺴﺒﻲ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻲ‪P‬‬

‫ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺸﺎﺑﻪ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻲ ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺮ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺧﻮﺩﻱ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪ .M‬ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻲ‪P‬‬ ‫‪.M‬‬
‫‪M ! f (Y ,‬‬ ‫‪),‬‬ ‫‪' 0,‬‬ ‫‪'0‬‬ ‫ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ‪:‬‬
‫‪P‬‬ ‫ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻲ‬ ‫‪.Y‬‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻲ ‪4 P‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪.22‬‬ ‫‪//‬‬
‫ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻲ ‪3 P‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬

‫ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﺑﺎ ﺭﻭﺷﻦ ﺷﺪﻥ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﻭ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺗـﺮﺍﺯ ﺗﺠـﺎﺭﻱ ﻭ ﻋﻮﺍﻣـﻞ‬
‫ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ ﺁﻥ ﺭﺍ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﻧﻤﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻛﻠﻲ‪ ،‬ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﺗﺮﺍﺯ ﺗﺠﺎﺭﻱ ﺭﺍ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮﺡ ﺯﻳـﺮ‬
‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﻛﺮﺩ‪:‬‬
‫‪١‬‬
‫‪TB ! X‬‬ ‫‪M‬‬

‫ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﻓﻮﻕ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻛﻨﺪ‪:‬‬

‫ﻣﺎﺯﺍﺩ ﺗﺠﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫‪TB>0‬‬ ‫ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﺍﻭﻝ(‬
‫ﺗﺮﺍﺯ ﺗﺠﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫‪TB=0‬‬ ‫ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﺩﻭﻡ(‬
‫ﻛﺴﺮﻱ ﺗﺠﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫‪TB<0‬‬ ‫ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﺳﻮﻡ(‬
‫ﺑﺎ ﻓﺮﺽ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺑﻮﺩﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻴﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺗﻮﺍﺑﻊ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﻭ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻧﻮﺷﺖ‪:‬‬

‫‪X !X‬‬ ‫&‬ ‫‪M ! M # m1 y‬‬

‫ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ ‪ m1‬ﻣﻴﻞ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﻭ ‪ M‬ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﻣﻴﻞ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﻲ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ) ‪ ( m1‬ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ ﺍﮔﺮ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻳﻚ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﺑﺪ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﭼﻘﺪﺭ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ‬
‫ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻳﺎﻓﺖ‪:‬‬
‫‪dm‬‬
‫! ‪m1‬‬ ‫‪'0‬‬
‫‪dy‬‬
‫ﺑﺎ ﺟﺎﻳﮕﺰﺍﺭﻱ ﺭﻭﺍﺑﻂ ﻓﻮﻕ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﻪ ﺗﺮﺍﺯ ﺗﺠﺎﺭﻱ ﺩﺍﺭﻳﻢ‪:‬‬

‫‪) TB ! X 0‬‬ ‫‪M ( y) ! 0‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫‪– Balance of Trade‬‬

‫‪%‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺗﺮﺍﺯ ﺗﺠﺎﺭﻱ )‪ (TB‬ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪ .‬ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ ،(٢-٢٦‬ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲﻫﺎﻱ‬
‫ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻁ ﺑﻪ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﻭ ﺗﺮﺍﺯ ﺗﺠﺎﺭﻱ ﺭﺍ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪95&I' ;2!' 7 ,2?527 J,25?&K :(2-26) 52?@0A‬‬

‫‪X,M‬‬
‫‪M‬‬
‫‪X0‬‬

‫‪Y‬‬

‫‪M,Y‬‬

‫‪TB>0‬‬

‫‪TB=0‬‬
‫‪Y‬‬

‫‪TB<0‬‬

‫'‪(952?@0A 875) (CD%5&GH 9@F.2 5? (<# =#>5? /?&B' L--B‬‬

‫ﺑﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ ،(٢-٢٧‬ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻱ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ ﺑﺎﺯ‬
‫ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﻛﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ‪ ،‬ﺿﻤﻦ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻫﺎﻱ ﺩﻭ ﺑﺨﺸﻲ )‪ (E١‬ﻭ ﺳﻪ ﺑﺨﺸﻲ‬
‫)‪ ،(E٣‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝﻫﺎ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻱ ﭼﻬﺎﺭﺑﺨﺸﻲ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻘﻄﻪ)‪ (E٤‬ﻣﻘﺎﻳﺴﻪ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻻﺯﻡ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﺫﻛﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺿﺎﻓﻪ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﻥ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﺑﺎﻻ ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺿﺎﻓﻪ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﻥ‬
‫ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﭘﺎﻳﻴﻦ ﻣﻨﺘﻘﻞ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫'‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪(CD% 5&GH 9@F.2 5? (<# =#>5? /?&B' :(2-27) 52?@0A‬‬

‫‪M,C,G,I,C‬‬
‫‪C+E+G+X =AE‬‬ ‫‪M=0‬‬
‫َ‪E4‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻱ ﭼﻬﺎﺭ ﺑﺨﺸﻲ‬
‫‪AE‬‬
‫‪C+E+G+X-M=AE M‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻱ ﭼﻬﺎﺭ ﺑﺨﺸﻲ‬
‫‪E4‬‬ ‫‪C+I+G=AE2 T ! 0‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻱ ﺳﻪ ﺑﺨﺸﻲ‬
‫‪T 0‬‬
‫‪C+I+G=AE2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻱ ﺳﻪ ﺑﺨﺸﻲ‬
‫َ‪E3‬‬

‫‪C+I=AE2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻱ ﺩﻭ ﺑﺨﺸﻲ‬

‫‪E3‬‬ ‫‪C‬‬

‫‪E2‬‬ ‫‪5x‬‬
‫! ‪5Y‬‬
‫‪1 a1 # M‬‬

‫‪a0‬‬
‫‪45‬‬
‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪YE2‬‬ ‫‪YE3‬‬ ‫*‪YE3‬‬ ‫‪YE4‬‬ ‫*‪YE4‬‬ ‫‪S+T+M‬‬
‫‪M,S,T,G,I,X‬‬ ‫‪S+T‬‬
‫‪S‬‬

‫َ‪E4‬‬
‫‪E4‬‬
‫‪I+G+X‬‬

‫‪E3‬‬ ‫َ‪E3‬‬
‫‪I+G‬‬

‫‪E2‬‬
‫‪I‬‬
‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪-a0‬‬ ‫‪YE2 YE‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫"‪YE3‬‬ ‫‪YE4‬‬ ‫"‪YE4‬‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﻗﺴﻤﺖ ﭘﺎﺋﻴﻦ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ ،(٢-٢٧‬ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲﻫﺎﻱ ﺭﻳﺰﺵ ﻭ‬
‫ﺗﺰﺭﻳﻖ ﻣﻌﻴﻦ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ‪ S+I+M‬ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﺭﻳﺰﺵﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺧﻂ ﺍﻓﻘﻲ ‪ I+G+M‬ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ‬
‫ﺗﺰﺭﻳﻖﻫﺎ ﺭﺍ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪.‬ﺩﺭ ﻧﻘﻄﻪ ‪ E٤‬ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺩﺭ ‪ Y E‬ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﺷﺪﻩ‬
‫‪4‬‬

‫ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺭﻭﺍﺑﻂ ﺟﺒﺮﻱ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺁﻭﺭﺩ‪:‬‬

‫(‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮﻱ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻛﻞ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ‪:‬‬

‫‪AE ! Y ! C $ I $ G $ X # M‬‬
‫ﺍﺟﺰﺍﺀ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻣﻠﻲ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺍﺯ‪:‬‬

‫) ‪C ! a $ a1 (Y # T‬‬
‫‪M ! M $ my‬‬
‫" ) ‪X ! X ( y%‬‬ ‫‪I!I‬‬

‫ﺑﺎ ﺟﺎﻳﮕﺰﺍﺭﻱ ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻁ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺟﺰﺍﺀ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻴﻢ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪:‬‬

‫` ‪AE ! Y ! a $ a1Y # a1T $ I $ G $ X 0 # M # mY‬‬

‫ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ‪ Y‬ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻴﻢ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪:‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫!‪Y‬‬ ‫‪&a‬‬ ‫' ‪# a1T $ I $ G $ X 0 # M 0‬‬
‫‪1 # a1 $ m1‬‬

‫ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﻗﺒﻼﹰ ﮔﻔﺘﻪ ﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﺍﮔﺮ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ‪ T ! T $ tY‬ﺍﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺷﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺿـﺮﻳﺐ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟـﻪ‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ‬
‫‪1 # a1 $ m $ a1t‬‬ ‫‪1 # a1 $ m‬‬

‫ﺍﺯ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮﻱ ﺭﻳﺰﺵ ﻭ ﺗﺰﺭﻳﻖ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺭﺍ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺑﺪﺳﺖ ﺁﻭﺭﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪S $T $ M ! I $ G $ X‬‬
‫ﺑﺎ ﺟﺎﻳﮕﺰﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﺟﺰﺍﺀ ﺭﻳﺰﺵ ﻭ ﺗﺰﺭﻳﻖ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮﻱ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻴﻢ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪:‬‬

‫‪#/ $/1T $ (1# a1)Y #T $T $ M $ mY ! I $ G $ X‬‬

‫* ‪- 1‬‬
‫‪Y(1# a1 $ m) !/ $ I $ G $ X # a1T .Y ! ++‬‬ ‫)‪(((/ $ I $ G $ X # a1T‬‬
‫‪1‬‬‫‪#‬‬
‫‪, 1‬‬ ‫‪a‬‬ ‫‪$‬‬ ‫‪m‬‬ ‫)‬
‫ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﻭ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‪:‬‬

‫ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﻳﻚ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪ ،‬ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﻳﺎ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﭼﻘﺪﺭ ﺯﻳﺎﺩ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ؟‬
‫ﭘﺎﺳﺦ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺳﻮﺍﻝ ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮﺡ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪:‬‬
‫‪0Y‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫!‬
‫‪0X 1 # a1 $ m1‬‬

‫!‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﻓﻮﻕ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺯ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺁﻣﺪﻩ ﺑﻴﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ ،‬ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﻳﻚ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ‪.0X‬‬
‫‪1 # a1 $ m1‬‬

‫ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ‪ ،‬ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﻛﺮﺩ‪:‬‬
‫‪0Y‬‬ ‫‪#1‬‬
‫!‬
‫‪0M‬‬ ‫‪1 # a1 $ m1‬‬

‫ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﻭ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ )ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ( ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻱ ﺑﻪ ﻳﻚ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﺑﺪ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻴﻢ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪:‬‬
‫‪0Y‬‬ ‫‪0Y‬‬
‫‪$‬‬ ‫‪!0‬‬
‫‪0X 0M‬‬
‫‪١‬‬
‫'&‪!" #$%‬‬

‫ﺍﮔﺮ ﺍﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﻫﻤﺰﻣﺎﻥ ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ ﺑﮕﻴﺮﻧﺪ ﭘﺲﺍﻧـﺪﺍﺯ ﺧـﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺍﻓـﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺩﻫﻨـﺪ‪ ،‬ﭼـﻪ ﺗـﺄﺛﻴﺮﻱ ﺑـﺮ ﺭﺷـﺪ‬
‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ؟ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻱ ﻛﻴﻨﺰﻱ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺗﻔﺎﻕ ﺑﺎﻋﺚ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺭﺷﺪ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻣـﻲﺷـﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻌﻤﺎﻱ ﺧﺴﺖ ﻣﺸﻬﻮﺭ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﭼﺮﺍ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﮕـﻮﻱ ﻛﻴﻨـﺰﻱ‪،‬‬
‫ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﻭ ﺳﭙﺲ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﺨـﺎﺭﺝ ﺍﺳـﺖ ﻭ ﺍﻳـﻦ ﻛـﺎﻫﺶ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﮕـﻮﻱ ﻛﻴﻨـﺰﻱ ﺑـﻪ‬
‫ﻣﻌﻨﺎﻱ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻌﻤﺎﻱ ﺧﺴﺖ ﺭﺍ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-٢٨‬ﺑﻬﺘـﺮ ﺗﻮﺿـﻴﺢ ﺩﺍﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳـﻦ ﻧﻤـﻮﺩﺍﺭ‪،‬‬
‫ﻓﺮﺽ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻛﻪ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﻣﺜﺒﺘﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﭘـﺲﺍﻧـﺪﺍﺯ ﺍﻭﻟﻴـﻪ ﺑـﺎ‬
‫ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ ‪ S0‬ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺣﺎﻝ ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪ ،‬ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﺑﻪ ﭼـﭗ‬
‫)‪ (S1‬ﻣﻨﺘﻘﻞ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻣﺮ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﻣﻲﮔـﺮﺩﺩ ﻭ ﺗﻮﻟﻴـﺪ ﺍﺯ ‪ YE‬ﺑـﻪ ‪YE1‬‬

‫ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫‪-The Paradox of thrift‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪!" #$%&' :(2-28) ()*+%,‬‬

‫‪S, I‬‬
‫‪S1‬‬
‫‪S0‬‬

‫‪I ! I $ eY‬‬

‫‪I‬‬
‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪YE1‬‬ ‫‪YE‬‬

‫‪#‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫'!‪-../$..‬‬
‫‪ (١‬ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺭﺍ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪S‬‬ ‫‪C‬‬ ‫‪G‬‬ ‫‪I‬‬ ‫‪NX‬‬ ‫‪TE‬‬ ‫‪Y‬‬

‫‪٢٢٥‬‬ ‫‪١٠٧٥‬‬ ‫‪٢٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٣٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٥٠‬‬
‫‪١٦٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٢٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٣٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٥٠‬‬ ‫‪٢٠٠٠‬‬
‫‪٢٠٥٠‬‬ ‫‪٢٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٣٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٥٠‬‬ ‫‪٢٦٠٠‬‬
‫‪٦٢٥‬‬ ‫‪٢٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٣٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٥٠‬‬ ‫‪٢٩٠٠‬‬

‫ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ ‪ = S‬ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ‪ = C ،‬ﻣﺼﺮﻑ‪ = G ،‬ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ‪ = I ،‬ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ‪،‬‬

‫‪ = NX‬ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‪ = TE ،‬ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﻭ ‪ = Y‬ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻛﻞ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻒ ـ ﻣﻴﻞ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﻲ ﺑﻪ ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﺭﺍ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ؟‬

‫ﺏ ـ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺭﺍ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻴﺪ؟‬
‫ﺝ ـ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭﻱ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﻫﻴﺪ؟‬
‫ﺩ ـ ﻓﺮﺽ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻲ )‪ (Actual‬ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ‪ ٢٢٠٠‬ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﭼﻪ ﺍﺗﻔﺎﻗﻲ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺍﻓﺘﺎﺩ؟‬
‫ﻫـ ـ ﻓﺮﺽ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺷﺘﻐﺎﻝ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ‪ ٣٦٠٠‬ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ ،‬ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ )ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﻳﻜﺠﺎ(‬
‫ﭼﻘﺪﺭ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻛﻨﺪ ﺗﺎ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺍﺷﺘﻐﺎﻝ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ) ‪ ( YF‬ﺑﺮﺳﺪ؟‬

‫‪ (٢‬ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺭﺍ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪C‬‬ ‫‪I‬‬ ‫‪G‬‬ ‫‪S‬‬ ‫ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻛﻞ‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ‬

‫‪١٥٠‬‬ ‫‪٢٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٤٠‬‬ ‫‪٣٠٠‬‬
‫‪٨٠٠‬‬ ‫‪١٥٠‬‬ ‫‪٢٠٠‬‬ ‫‪١٧٥‬‬
‫‪١٥٠‬‬ ‫‪٢٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٣٥٠‬‬ ‫‪١٨٥٠‬‬
‫‪١٥٠‬‬ ‫‪٢٠٠‬‬ ‫‪١٩٠٠‬‬ ‫‪١٨٩٠‬‬
‫‪١٥٠‬‬ ‫‪٢٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٤١٨/٧٥‬‬ ‫‪٢١٢٥‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻒ ـ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﭼﻘﺪﺭ ﺍﺳﺖ؟‬

‫‪#$‬‬
 ‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺏ ـ ﻣﻴﻞ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ )‪ (MPC‬ﺭﺍ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ؟‬

‫ﺝ ـ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭﻱ ﺗﺮﺳﻴﻢ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺫﻛﺮ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺩﺭ ﺑﻨﺪﻫﺎﻱ ﻓﻮﻕ ﺭﺍ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﺪ؟‬
‫ﺩ ـ ﺍﮔﺮ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺍﺷﺘﻐﺎﻝ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ‪ ١٦٥٠‬ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﭼﻘﺪﺭ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﻳﺪ‬
‫ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻛﻨﺪ ﺗﺎ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺍﺷﺘﻐﺎﻝ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ) ‪ ( YF‬ﺑﺮﺳﺪ؟ )ﻓﺮﺽ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ‪،‬‬
‫ﺳﻄﺢ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻭ ‪ MPC‬ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺍﺳﺖ(‬
‫‪ (٣‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻛﻪ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ‪ ،‬ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺭﺍ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ‪ .‬ﻫﻨﮕﺎﻣﻲ ﻛﻪ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﻳﻚ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ‬
‫ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﭼﻘﺪﺭ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ؟‬
‫ﻫﻨﮕﺎﻣﻲ ﻛﻪ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ )‪ (T‬ﺑﻪ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻩ ﻳﻚ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫ﭼﻘﺪﺭ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﭘﻴﺪﺍ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ؟‬
‫ﭼﺮﺍ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺩﺭ ‪ Y‬ﺩﺭﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺩﺭ ‪ G‬ﻭ ‪ ،T‬ﻣﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﺍﺳﺖ؟‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﻓﺮﺽ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺩﺭ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺑﻮﺩﺟﻪ )‪ (G=T‬ﻗﺮﺍﺭ‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﻭ ‪ G‬ﻭ ‪ T‬ﺩﻗﻴﻘﺎﹰ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻩ ﻳﻚ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺩﺭ‬
‫‪ GDP‬ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺭﺍ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ‪ .‬ﺁﻳﺎ ﺍﺛﺮ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ‪ G‬ﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ‪ T‬ﺧﻨﺜﻲ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ؟ )ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺢ ﺩﻫﻴﺪ(‪.‬‬

‫‪ (٤‬ﻓﺮﺽ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻃﺮﺡ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺴﺌﻠﻪ ﻗﺒﻞ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻣﻮﺍﺟﻪ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪:‬‬

‫‪C ! c0 c1YD , YD ! Y " T , T ! t0 t1Y‬‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﺻﻮﺭﺗﻲ ﻛﻪ ‪ G‬ﻭ ‪ I‬ﻫﺮﺩﻭ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ‪:‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻒ ـ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺭﺍ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ‪.‬‬

‫ﺏ ـ ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﻭ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ ﺭﺍ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪ (٥‬ﻳﻚ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻓﺮﺿﻲ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺎ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺩﺭﻧﻈﺮ ﺑﮕﻴﺮﻳﺪ‪:‬‬

‫ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺩﻭﻟﺘﻲ‪ ٦٠ :‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﺎﺭﺩ ﺭﻳﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ‪ ٨٠٠:‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﺎﺭﺩ ﺭﻳﺎﻝ‬
‫ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕﻫﺎﻱ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ‪ ٣٠ :‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﺎﺭﺩ ﺭﻳﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻴﻞ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﻲ ﺑﻪ ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ‪٠/١ :‬‬
‫ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‪ ٥ :‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﺎﺭﺩ ﺭﻳﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ‪ ١٠ :‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﺎﺭﺩ ﺭﻳﺎﻝ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻒ ـ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺭﻭﺵ ﺟﺒﺮﻱ ﻭ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭﻱ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻭ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﻫﻴﺪ‪.‬‬

‫!‬
 ‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺏ ـ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺭﻳﺰﺵ ﻭ ﺗﺰﺭﻳﻖ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ‪.‬‬

‫ﺝ ـ ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﻣﺎﻳﻞ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ‪ ٥‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﺎﺭﺩ ﺭﻳﺎﻝ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ‬
‫ﭼﻘﺪﺭ ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻛﻨﺪ؟‬

‫ﻳﻚ ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻱ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺑﺎ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﻪﻫﺎﻱ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻣﻔﺮﻭﺽ ﺍﺳﺖ‪:‬‬ ‫‪(٦‬‬

‫‪Y !C I G‬‬
‫‪C ! 1000 0/ 8 Yd‬‬
‫‪Yd ! Y " T‬‬
‫‪T ! 100 0/ 05Y‬‬
‫‪I ! 200" 0/ 01r‬‬

‫‪ = Y‬ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻲ‪ = I ،‬ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ‪ = C ،‬ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ‪= G ،‬‬

‫ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺩﻭﻟﺘﻲ‪ = T ،‬ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﻭ ‪ = r‬ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻒ ـ ﺩﺭ ﺻﻮﺭﺗﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺩﻭﻟﺘﻲ )‪ (G‬ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮ ‪ ٥٠‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﺎﺭﺩ ﺭﻳﺎﻝ ﻭ‬
‫‪ r ! 0/ 15‬ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﺳﻄﺢ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﺳﻄﺢ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ‪ ،‬ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺳﻄﺢ‬
‫ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ )‪ (I‬ﺭﺍ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺏ ـ ﻛﺴﺮﻱ ﻳﺎ ﻣﺎﺯﺍﺩ ﺑﻮﺩﺟﻪ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺭﺍ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻴﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺝ ـ ﺍﮔﺮ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﻭ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ )‪ (T0 ! 100‬ﻫﺮ ﺩﻭ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ‪ ٣٠‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﺎﺭﺩ ﺭﻳﺎﻝ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ‬
‫ﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪ ،‬ﺍﺛﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻴﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩ( ﺍﮔﺮ ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺗﻲ ﺍﺯ ‪ ٠/٠٥‬ﺑﻪ ‪ ٠/٠٦‬ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪ ،‬ﺍﺛﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ‬
‫ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻫـ( ﺍﮔﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺟﺎﻱ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﻪ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﻓﻮﻕ‪ ،‬ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﻪ ‪ I ! 200" 0/ 01r 0/ 5 Y‬ﺟﺎﻳﮕﺰﻳﻦ‬
‫ﺷﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺳﻄﺢ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺭﺍ ﻣﺠﺪﺩﺍﹰ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪ (٧‬ﺩﺭ ﻳﻚ ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻱ ﭼﻬﺎﺭ ﺑﺨﺸﻲ ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪:‬‬

‫‪T ! 120 0/ 2Y‬‬ ‫‪C ! 100 0/ 7 Yd‬‬ ‫‪G ! 800 I ! 95‬‬ ‫‪X ! 200 M ! 60 0/ 2Yd‬‬

‫ﻣﻄﻠﻮﺑﺴﺖ‪:‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻒ ـ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ‬

‫ﺏ ـ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﻭ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ‬

‫"‬
 ‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺝ ـ ﺍﺛﺮ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ‪ ٥٠‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﺑﺮﺭﻭﻱ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ‬

‫ﺩ ـ ﺍﮔﺮ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺷﺘﻐﺎﻝ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ‪ ٢٠٠٠‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺷﻜﺎﻑ ﺭﻛﻮﺩﻱ ﻳﺎ ﺗﻮﺭﻣﻲ ﺭﺍ‬
‫ﺑﺪﺳﺖ ﺁﻭﺭﻳﺪ؟‬
‫ﻫـ ـ ﺍﮔﺮ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺷﺘﻐﺎﻝ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ‪ ٢٠٠٠‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﭼﻘﺪﺭ ﺩﺭ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎﻱ ﺧﻮﺩ‬
‫ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺍﻳﺠﺎﺩ ﻛﻨﺪ ﺗﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺑﺮﺳﺪ؟ ﺍﺛﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮﺭﻭﻱ ﻛﺴﺮﻱ )ﻣﺎﺯﺍﺩ( ﺑﻮﺩﺟﻪ‬
‫ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﻭ ﺗﺮﺍﺯ ﺗﺠﺎﺭﻱ ﺑﺪﺳﺖ ﺁﻭﺭﻳﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪ (٨‬ﻓﺮﺽ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻱ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮﺡ ﺫﻳﻞ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪:‬‬

‫‪C ! 200 0.5 YD‬‬
‫ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﻪ ﻓﻮﻕ ‪ YD‬ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺗﺼﺮﻑ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕﻫﺎ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ‪ ٢٠٠‬ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻒ ـ ﺍﮔﺮ ‪ YD ! 0‬ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﺳﻄﺢ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺭﺍ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻴﺪ؟ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﺧﻼﺻﻪ ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺢ ﺩﻫﻴﺪ ﻛﻪ‬
‫ﻭﻗﺘﻲ ﻛﻪ ‪ YD ! 0‬ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﺍﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﭼﮕﻮﻧﻪ ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺧﺖ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﻨﺪ؟‬
‫ﺏ ـ ﺍﮔﺮ‪ Y ! 1200‬ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﺳﻄﺢ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺭﺍ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ‪ .‬ﻓﺮﺽ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ ﻛﻪ ‪ Y‬ﺑﻪ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ‬
‫‪ ١٣٠٠‬ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪ ،‬ﺳﻄﺢ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﭼﮕﻮﻧﻪ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ؟‬
‫ﺝ ـ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﺑﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺭﺍ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ‪ .‬ﺳﻄﺢ ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﺩﺭ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻄﻲ ﻛﻪ ‪ YD ! 0‬ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‬
‫ﺭﺍ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻴﺪ‪ .‬ﻣﻴﻞ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﻲ ﭘﺲﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﭼﻘﺪﺭ ﺍﺳﺖ؟‬

‫‪ (٩‬ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺸﺨﺼﺎﺕ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺩﺭﻧﻈﺮ ﺑﮕﻴﺮﻳﺪ‪:‬‬

‫‪C ! C0‬‬ ‫‪bY D‬‬

‫‪G ! G0 " hY‬‬

‫‪I ! I0 iY‬‬
‫‪T ! T0 tY‬‬
‫‪M ! M0‬‬ ‫‪mY D‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻒ ـ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺭﺍ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ‪.‬‬

‫ﺏ ـ ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﺗﻮﺍﺯﻥ ﺑﻮﺩﺟﻪ ﺭﺍ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻴﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺝ ـ ﺍﺛﺮ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻳﻚ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺗﻲ )‪ (t‬ﺭﺍ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺛﺮ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻳﻚ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺩﺭ ‪ h‬ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‬
‫ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻭ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻣﻘﺎﻳﺴﻪ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﻫﻴﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪#‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪١‬‬
‫‪! "#$#%& (2-5‬‬
‫ﺗﺎﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﻓﺮﺽ ﺷﺪ ﻛﻪ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﻭ ﻧﺤﻮﻩ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺩﺭﺁﻣـﺪ ﻣﻠـﻲ ﺑـﺎ‬
‫ﻓﺮﺽ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﮔﺮﻓـﺖ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳـﻦ ﻗـﺴﻤﺖ‪ ،‬ﺍﻳـﻦ ﻓـﺮﺽ ﻧﻘـﺾ ﻭ‬
‫ﻓﺮﺽ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﺟﺎﻳﮕﺰﻳﻦ ﺁﻥ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﺎ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻧﺤﻮﻩ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺛـﺮ ﺗﻐﻴﻴـﺮ‬
‫ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺮﺍﺝ ﻛﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﻻﺯﻡ ﺑﻪ ﺫﻛﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺗﻤﺎﻣﻲ ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻫﺎﻱ‬
‫ﺩﻭ ﺑﺨﺸﻲ ﺗﺎ ﭼﻬﺎﺭﺑﺨﺸﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺗﺎ ﻛﻨـﻮﻥ ﻣـﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺮﺭﺳـﻲ ﻗـﺮﺍﺭ ﮔﺮﻓـﺖ‪ ،‬ﺗﻨﻬـﺎ ﻃـﺮﻑ ﺗﻘﺎﺿـﺎﻱ‬
‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺎ ﻓﺮﺽ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺑﻮﺩﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺑـﺎ ﺗﻐﻴﻴـﺮ ﻗﻴﻤـﺖﻫـﺎ‪ ،‬ﺍﺯ‬
‫ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺰﺑﻮﺭ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺭﺍ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺍﺳـﺘﺨﺮﺍﺝ ﻛـﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻣـﺎ ﭼﮕﻮﻧـﻪ ﻣـﻲﺗـﻮﺍﻥ‬
‫ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺯ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺮﺍﺝ ﻧﻤﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﭼﮕﻮﻧـﻪ ﺑـﻪ ﻗﻴﻤـﺖﻫـﺎ‬
‫ﻣﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﮔﺮ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺷﻮﻧﺪ؛ ﭼﮕﻮﻧﻪ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﺗﺤﺖ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﮔﻴﺮﺩ؟‬
‫ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻛﻠﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻪ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻧﻨﺪ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺩﻫﻨﺪ‪:‬‬
‫‪٢‬‬
‫‪ (١‬ﺍﺛﺮ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ )ﺍﺛﺮ ﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﺧﺮﻳﺪ(‬
‫‪٣‬‬
‫‪ (٢‬ﺍﺛﺮ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ )ﺍﺛﺮ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ(‬
‫‪٤‬‬
‫‪ (٣‬ﺍﺛﺮ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ) ) ‪ ( X " M‬ﺍﺛﺮﺍﺕ ﺗﺠﺎﺭﺕ ﺑﻴﻦﺍﻟﻤﻠﻠﻲ(‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ ﺍﺛﺮﺍﺕ ﻫﺮ ﻳﻚ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪(١‬ﺍﺛﺮ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺑﺮ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ‪ :‬ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺑﺮ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﺧﺮﻳﺪ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺍﺛﺮ ﻣﻲﮔﺬﺍﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻟﺬﺍ ﺍﺛﺮ‬
‫ﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﺧﺮﻳﺪ ﻧﺎﻡ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺘﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ ﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﺧﺮﻳﺪ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻲ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ‬
‫ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺛﺮﻭﺗﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻧﮕﻬﺪﺍﺭﻱ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻣﺮ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺗﻮﺭﻣﻲ ﻧﮕﻬﺪﺍﺭﻱ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺑﺎ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ ﭼﺮﺍ‬
‫ﻛﻪ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺁﻥ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (٢‬ﺍﺛﺮ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ‪ :‬ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻗﺒﻠﻲ ﮔﻔﺘﻪ ﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ‬
‫ﭘﻮﻝ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺑﻪ ﭘـﻮﻝ ﺑﻴـﺸﺘﺮﻱ ﺍﺣﺘﻴـﺎﺝ ﺩﺍﺭﻧـﺪ ﺗـﺎ ﺑﺘﻮﺍﻧﻨـﺪ‬
‫ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻲ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺗﺄﻣﻴﻦ ﻛﻨﻨﺪ )ﻫﻤﺎﻥ ﻣﺨـﺎﺭﺝ ﻗﺒﻠـﻲ(‪ .‬ﺑﻨـﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ‪ ،‬ﺗﻘﺎﺿـﺎﻱ ﭘـﻮﻝ ﺍﻓـﺰﺍﻳﺶ‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫‪- Aggregate Demand‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪– Purchasing Effect‬‬
‫‪3‬‬
‫‪– Interest Rate Effect‬‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫‪– International Trade Effect‬‬

‫‪$‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ ﻭ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﭘﻮﻝ)ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ( ﺑﺎﻻ ﻣﻲﺭﻭﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ‪ ،‬ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﻗﺒﻼﹰ ﻧﻴﺰ ﮔﻔﺘﻪ ﺷـﺪ‬
‫ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (٣‬ﺍﺛﺮ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ )ﺍﺛﺮﺗﺠﺎﺭﺕ ﺑﻴﻦﺍﻟﻤﻠﻞ(‪ :‬ﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﻓﺮﺽ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ‬
‫ﺑﻮﺩﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻱ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﺑﻪ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻲ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﻭ ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ‬
‫ﮔﻔﺘﻪ ﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﻭ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ‬
‫ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺭﻗﺎﺑﺖﭘﺬﻳﺮﻱ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻱ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻘﺎﻳﺴﻪ ﺑﺎ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺸﺎﺑﻪ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻲ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ‬
‫ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﻭ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﺎ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﺷﺪﻥ ﻧﺤﻮﻩ ﺍﺛﺮﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﺑﺮ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ‪ ،‬ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ‬
‫ﺍﺯ ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻱ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ‪ -‬ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻭ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﻛﺮﺩﻥ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ‪ ،‬ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﺭﺍ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺮﺍﺝ ﻛﺮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-٢٩‬ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺍﺯ ‪ P0‬ﺑﻪ ‪ P1‬ﭼﮕﻮﻧﻪ ﺍﺟﺰﺍﺀ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ؛ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ‬
‫)‪ ،(C‬ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ )‪ (I‬ﻭ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ )‪(NX‬ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﻭ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ‬
‫ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻄﺢ ﭘﺎﻳﻴﻦ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺑﺪﻳﻦ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺍﺯ ﻧﻘﻄﻪ ‪ A‬ﺑﻪ ‪ B‬ﻣﻨﺘﻘﻞ ﻣﻲﮔﺮﺩﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪! -'#./ 01 2+34 0335& 06( :(2-29) '()*+,‬‬

‫‪AE‬‬

‫‪AEPO=C0+I0+G+NX0‬‬
‫‪A‬‬

‫‪AEP1=C1+I1+G+NX1‬‬

‫‪B‬‬ ‫‪P1>P0‬‬

‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪Y1‬‬ ‫‪Y0‬‬

‫ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ ،(٢-٣٠‬ﻧﺤﻮﻩ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺮﺍﺝ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻱ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ‪ -‬ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺑﺎ ﻓﺮﺽ‬

‫ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺍﺯ ‪ P0‬ﺑﻪ ‪ ،P1‬ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪ .‬ﻃﺒﻖ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺍﺯ ‪ P0‬ﺑﻪ ‪P1‬‬

‫‪%‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﺍﺯ ‪ AE P‬ﺑﻪ ‪ AE P‬ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ ﻧﻘﻄﻪ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺯ ‪ A‬ﺑﻪ ‪ B‬ﻣﻨﺘﻘﻞ‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫ﻣﻲﺳﺎﺯﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺩﻗﻴﻘﺎﹰ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎ‬
‫ﺳﻄﺢ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺮﺍﺝ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫‪-'#./ – 7/8') "*9:( ;( ! "#$#%& -(0.<=( :(2-30) '()*+,‬‬

‫‪AE‬‬

‫‪AEPO=C0+I0+G+NX0‬‬
‫‪A‬‬

‫‪AEP1=C1+I1+G+NX1‬‬

‫‪B‬‬ ‫‪P1>P0‬‬

‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪Y1‬‬ ‫‪Y0‬‬

‫‪P‬‬

‫‪B‬‬
‫‪P1‬‬

‫‪A‬‬
‫‪P0‬‬ ‫‪AD‬‬

‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪Y1‬‬ ‫‪Y0‬‬

‫ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ‪١‬ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ‪ :‬ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻄﻲ ﺍﻣﻜﺎﻥﭘﺬﻳﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ‬
‫ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ )‪ (AE‬ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﻳﺎﺑﺪ ﻭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﻧﺒﺎﺷﺪ )ﺳﻄﺢ‬
‫ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺍﺳﺖ(‪.‬‬

‫ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻛﻞ ﭼﻬﺎﺭ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪:‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫‪- Shift‬‬

‫&‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪ (١‬ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ )ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﻭ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕﻫﺎ(‬

‫ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭﻫﺎﻱ )‪ ،(٢-٣١‬ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﻧﺤﻮﻩ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﺭﺍ‬
‫ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪ .‬ﻓﺮﺽ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﻭ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ‪ #G‬ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪ .‬ﻻﺯﻡ‬
‫ﺑﻪ ﺫﻛﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎ ﺗﻤﺎﻣﻲ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﻃﺒﻖ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ‪ ،‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻣﺮ‬
‫ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﻭ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﻧﻘﻄﻪ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺍﺯ ‪ A‬ﺑﻪ ‪ B‬ﺷﺪﻩ ﻭ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺟﺎﺑﺠﺎﻳﻲ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ‬
‫ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﺭﺍﺳﺖ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )ﺝ( ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﺠﺎﺋﻴﻜﻪ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺩﻭﻟﺘﻲ ﺑﻪ‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﻓﺮﺽ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺑﻮﺩﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ‪ #G‬ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ‪ #Y ،‬ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ‪#G‬‬
‫‪1 " mp‬‬
‫ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )ﺝ(‪ ،‬ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﺭﺍﺳﺖ ﻣﻨﺘﻘﻞ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻭ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ‬
‫ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ‪ Y‬ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫'‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪! "#$#%& >?@?/ A#%<,( B 2:B) -'#./ ') 0335& :(2-31) '()*+,‬‬

‫‪AE‬‬ ‫‪AEPO=C+I+G0+ # G +NX‬‬

‫)ﺍﻟﻒ(‬ ‫‪B‬‬
‫‪AEP0=C+I+G1+ NX‬‬

‫‪#G A‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫! ‪#Y‬‬ ‫‪#G‬‬
‫‪1 " MPC‬‬

‫‪Y0‬‬
‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪AE‬‬ ‫‪Y1‬‬

‫)ﺏ(‬

‫‪A‬‬
‫‪P0‬‬

‫‪AD0‬‬

‫‪Y0‬‬
‫‪Y‬‬

‫‪P‬‬
‫)ﺝ(‬
‫‪AD0‬‬ ‫‪AD1‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫! ‪#Y‬‬ ‫‪#G‬‬
‫‪1" MPC‬‬
‫‪P0‬‬
‫‪A‬‬ ‫‪B‬‬

‫‪Y0‬‬
‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪Y1‬‬

‫ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-٢٣‬ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕﻫﺎ )ﺍﺯ‪ T0‬ﺑﻪ ‪ (T1‬ﻭ ﺍﺛﺮ ﺁﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﻭ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ‬
‫ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪.‬‬
‫‪ AE‬ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ‬ ‫‪ T1‬ﻭ ‪P0‬‬ ‫‪ AE‬ﺑﻪ‬ ‫‪ T0‬ﻭ ‪P0‬‬ ‫ﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕﻫﺎ ﺍﺯ ‪ T0‬ﺑﻪ ‪ ،T1‬ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )ﺍﻟﻒ( ﺍﺯ‬
‫ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﻭ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﻧﻘﻄﻪ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺍﺯ ‪ A‬ﺑﻪ ‪ B‬ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ‬

‫(‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﺑﻪ ﭼﭗ‪ ،‬ﺍﺯ ‪ AD0‬ﺑﻪ ‪ AD1‬ﺩﺭ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )ﺝ( ﺷﺪﻩ ﻭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺭﺍ‬
‫ﺍﺯ ‪ Y0‬ﺑﻪ ‪ Y1‬ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪! "#$#%& >?@?/ A#%<,( B #DC#3:#/ 0335& :(2-32)'()*+,‬‬

‫‪AE‬‬ ‫‪AE PO , TO ! C‬‬ ‫‪I G‬‬ ‫‪NX‬‬

‫‪A‬‬
‫)ﺍﻟﻒ(‬ ‫‪#C ! " MPC #LST‬‬
‫‪AE PO , TI ! C‬‬ ‫‪I G‬‬ ‫‪NX‬‬

‫‪B‬‬
‫‪" MPC‬‬
‫! ‪#Y‬‬ ‫‪#LST‬‬
‫‪1" MPC‬‬

‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪Y1‬‬ ‫‪Y0‬‬
‫‪P‬‬
‫)ﺏ(‬

‫‪A‬‬
‫‪P0‬‬
‫‪AD0‬‬
‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪Y0‬‬

‫‪P‬‬
‫)ﺝ(‬
‫‪AD1‬‬ ‫‪AD0‬‬
‫‪" MPC‬‬
‫! ‪#Y‬‬ ‫‪#LST‬‬
‫‪1" MPC‬‬

‫‪B‬‬ ‫‪A‬‬
‫‪P0‬‬

‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪Y0‬‬ ‫‪Y1‬‬

‫‪ (٢‬ﺑﺨﺶ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻲ )ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ(‪ :‬ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ‬
‫ﻛﻞ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﺭﺍﺳﺖ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺑﺮﻋﻜﺲ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (٣‬ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺍﻧﺘﻈﺎﺭﺍﺕ‪ :‬ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻧﺘﻈﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ‬
‫ﻛﻞ ﻭ ﺩﺭﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻮﺛﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻫﻨﮕﺎﻣﻲ ﺍﻧﺘﻈﺎﺭ ﻣﻲﺭﻭﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪ ،‬ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﺣﺎﻝ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ‬
‫ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (٤‬ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺳﺎﻳﺮ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ‪ :‬ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ‪ ،‬ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﻭ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺍﺟﺰﺍﺀ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ‪ ،‬ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ‬
‫ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ )‪ (AE‬ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﺑﺎﻻ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﻭ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺣﺮﻛﺖ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ‬
‫ﺭﺍﺳﺖ ﻣﻲﮔﺮﺩﺩ ﻭ ﺑﺮﻋﻜﺲ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ‪ ،‬ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺣﺮﻛﺖ ﺭﻭﻱ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﻭ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻫﺮ ﻳﻚ ﺍﺯ ﺍﺟﺰﺍﻱ ‪) AE‬ﻛﻪ‬
‫ﺑﻪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﻧﺒﺎﺷﺪ( ﺑﺎﻋﺚ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﻣﻲﮔﺮﺩﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪:-./', 0 12+34 ! "#$ % &'() *+, (2-6‬‬

‫ﺗﺎﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ )ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ( ﺑﺎ ﻓﺮﺽ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺮﺍﺝ‬
‫ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﻭ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﻥ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ ﺁﻥ ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﻧﻘﺾ ﻓﺮﺽ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺑﻮﺩﻥ‬
‫ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺍﺟﺎﺯﻩ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺁﻥ‪ ،‬ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻫﻤﺰﻣﺎﻥ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻭ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﺩﺳﺖ ﺁﻭﺭﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﻗﺴﻤﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﻗﺒﻠﻲ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻪ ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﻛﻼﺳﻴﻜﻲ‪ ،‬ﻛﻴﻨﺰﻱ ﻭ ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﻣﻴﺎﻧﻪ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺮﺍﺝ‬
‫ﮔﺮﺩﻳﺪ‪ .‬ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻠﻲ ﻫﻤﭽﻮﻥ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‪،‬‬
‫ﺗﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﮊﻱ ﻭ ﻏﻴﺮﻩ‪ ،‬ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﮔﺮﻓﺖ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ ﺑﺎ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﻥ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲﻫﺎﻱ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ‬
‫ﻭ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ‪ ،‬ﺿﻤﻦ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻫﻤﺰﻣﺎﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺩﺭ ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ ﻣﺪﺕ ﻭ ﺑﻠﻨﺪ ﻣﺪﺕ‪ ،‬ﻧﺤﻮﻩ‬
‫ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻭ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﺗﺤﺖ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ »ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻳﺴﺘﺎﻱ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻘﻲ« ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ‬
‫ﻣﻲﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪:*% 23 4..23 5678 9 : ;3 9 <:-= -‬‬

‫ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ )‪ ،(٢-٣٣‬ﻧﺤﻮﻩ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺭﺍ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﺗﻘﺎﻃﻊ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲﻫﺎﻱ‬
‫ﻋﺮﺿﻪ )ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ ﻣﺪﺕ ‪ SRAS0‬ﻭ ﺑﻠﻨﺪ ﻣﺪﺕ ‪ (LRAS‬ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺁﻣﺪﻩ ﺭﺍ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ ﻧﻘﻄﻪ‬
‫ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ‪ A‬ﺩﺭ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ ﻓﻮﻕ‪ ،‬ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺑﻠﻨﺪﻣﺪﺕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺭﺍ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪ .‬ﭼﺮﺍ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻘﻄﻪ‬
‫ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﺑﻠﻨﺪ ﻣﺪﺕ ﺑﺎ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ ﻣﺪﺕ ﺑﺎ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﺑﺎ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ ﻣﺪﺕ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮ ﺷﻮﺩ ﻧﻘﻄﻪ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺁﻣﺪﻩ‬
‫ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ ﻣﺪﺕ ﺑﻮﺩﻩ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﻳﻚ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﻧﺎﭘﺎﻳﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫))!‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪-./', 0 1@?.( 06AB) >% 0% &'() *% 23 :(2-33) >)%6?8‬‬

‫‪P‬‬ ‫‪LRAS‬‬

‫‪AD0‬‬
‫‪SRAS0‬‬

‫‪P0‬‬ ‫‪A‬‬

‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪YF‬‬

‫‪*% 23 -../3 5678 -‬‬

‫ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻘﻄﻪ ‪ A‬ﺑﻪ ﺩﻭ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ‪:‬‬

‫‪: : ;3 EF7F, G) ED 8 0 1C6D‬‬

‫ﻛﻠﻴﻪ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻠﻲ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﻧﻈﻴﺮ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻧﺘﻈﺎﺭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ‪ ،‬ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﻭ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﻭ ﻏﻴﺮﻩ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ‬
‫ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ )ﺷﻮﻙ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ( ﻣﻲﮔﺮﺩﺩ‪ .‬ﺷﻮﻙﻫﺎﻱ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ ﻳﺎ‬
‫ﻣﻨﻔﻲ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﻛﻪ ﻫﺮ ﻳﻚ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺢ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﻧﺪ‪:‬‬

‫‪: ;3 @HI, C6D -‬‬

‫ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻓﺮﺽ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺍﻃﻤﻴﻨﺎﻥ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﺍﻥ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ‬
‫ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪ .‬ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-٣٣‬ﺩﺭ ﻗﺴﻤﺖﻫﺎﻱ »ﺍﻟﻒ« ﺗﺎ »ﺩ« ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ‬
‫ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻭ ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻱ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﻭ‬
‫ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻧﻌﻄﺎﻑﭘﺬﻳﺮ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪.‬‬

‫!‬
 ‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ (١) ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ‬

-./', 9 @! O @?.( 06AB) >% "P ")-O) 9 0>)RS<J ,-K LJ)MN) :(2-33) >)%6?8

(‫)ﺍﻟﻒ‬
«‫»ﺍﻟﻒ‬ AE
B AE PO " C I !I G NX

AEPO " C I G NX

YF Y0

(‫) ﺏ‬ AE AE PO " C I0 !I G0 NX
B

AEPO " C I0 G0 NX

1
A !Y " !I
1# MPC

YF Y0

(‫) ﺝ‬ AD1
LRAS
P

AD0
1
!Y " !I
1# MPC

P0 A B

YF Y0

( ‫)ﺩ‬ AD1
LRAS
P

SRAS0
C
AD0

P0 A B

YF Y0

!"
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ »ﺍﻟﻒ«‪ ،‬ﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺍﻃﻤﻴﻨﺎﻥ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﺍﻥ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ‪ !I‬ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﻭ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺍﺯ ﻧﻘﻄﻪ ‪ A‬ﺑﻪ ﻧﻘﻄﻪ ‪ B‬ﻣﻨﺘﻘﻞ ﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ‬
‫»ﺏ« ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ‪ ، !I‬ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺑﻪ‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫" ‪ !Y‬ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﺎ ﻓﺮﺽ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺑﻮﺩﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ‪!I‬‬
‫‪1 # MPC‬‬
‫ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ »ﺝ« ﻣﻼﺣﻈﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﺠﺎﺋﻴﻜﻪ ﺩﺭ‬

‫ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﺍﺯ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺍﺷﺘﻐﺎﻝ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ ،‬ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ‬ ‫‪B‬‬ ‫ﻧﻘﻄﻪ‬
‫ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪﻛﻨﻨﺪﮔﺎﻥ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪ ،‬ﭼﺮﺍ ﻛﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪﻛﻨﻨﺪﮔﺎﻥ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺁﻧﻜﻪ ﺑﺘﻮﺍﻧﻨﺪ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮﻱ‬
‫ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻨﺪ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻱ ﻛﺎﺭ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮﻱ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺍﺷﺘﻐﺎﻝ‬
‫ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻱ ﻛﻤﺘﺮ ﺍﺯ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﺻﻄﺤﻜﺎﻛﻲ ﻳﺎ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎﺭﻱ ﮔﺮﺩﺩ ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ‬
‫ﺳﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮﻱ ﺍﺯ ﻛﺎﺭﮔﺮﺍﻥ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻭ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻱ ﻛﺎﺭ ﺭﺍ ﻣﺠﺒﻮﺭ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺿﺎﻓﻪ ﻛﺎﺭﻱ‬
‫ﻧﻤﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻣﺮ ﻣﺴﺘﻠﺰﻡ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺩﺳﺘﻤﺰﺩ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻱ ﻛﺎﺭ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺩﺳﺘﻤﺰﺩﻫﺎ ﻭ‬
‫ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪﻛﻨﻨﺪﮔﺎﻥ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﺟﺒﺮﺍﻥ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﻥ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎﻱ ﺧﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﺭﺍ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺩﻫﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺍﺛﺮ ﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﺧﺮﻳﺪ‪ ،‬ﺍﺛﺮ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ﻭ ﺍﺛﺮ ﺗﺠﺎﺭﺕ‬
‫ﺑﻴﻦﺍﻟﻤﻠﻠﻲ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ ﻭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻘﻄﻪ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ ﻣﺪﺕ ‪ C‬ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ »ﺩ« ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ ﺩﺭ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ ﻣﺪﺕ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ‬
‫ﻣﺪﺕ ﻳﻚ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﻧﺎﭘﺎﻳﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺣﺼﻮﻝ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﭘﺎﻳﺪﺍﺭ ﻣﺴﺘﻠﺰﻡ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮﻱ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﺑﺎ‬
‫ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻞ ﺑﻠﻨﺪ ﻣﺪﺕ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺩﺳﺘﻴﺎﺑﻲ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺩﻭ ﺭﺍﻩ ﺣﻞ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪:‬‬
‫‪١‬‬
‫‪ :‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﻴﻮﻩ‪ ،‬ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮﺩ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻫﺎﻱ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺍﺻﻼﺡ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻒ( ﺧﻮﺩ ﺗﻨﻈﻴﻤﻲ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﺗﺎ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺑﻠﻨﺪ ﻣﺪﺕ ﺑﺮﺳﺪ‪ .‬ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﮔﻔﺘﻪ ﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﻧﻘﻄﻪ ‪ C‬ﻳﻚ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ‬
‫ﻣﺪﺕ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪﻛﻨﻨﺪﮔﺎﻥ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺁﻧﻜﻪ ﺑﺘﻮﺍﻧﻨﺪ ﻓﺮﺍﺗﺮ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﺩﺭ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺍﺷﺘﻐﺎﻝ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ‬
‫ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﻣﺠﺒﻮﺭ ﺑﻪ ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺧﺖ ﺩﺳﺘﻤﺰﺩﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺮ ﺷﺪﻩﺍﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺩﺳﺘﻤﺰﺩﻫﺎ‬

‫‪– Self - Adjustment‬‬

‫‪!#‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﻭ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎﻱ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ »ﺍﻟﻒ« )‪ (٢-٣٤‬ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ ،‬ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ‬
‫ﻣﺪﺕ ﻛﻞ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﭼﭗ ﻣﻨﺘﻘﻞ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺗﺎ ﺯﻣﺎﻧﻲﻛﻪ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺩﺭ ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ ﻣﺪﺕ‬
‫ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﺍﺯ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺍﺷﺘﻐﺎﻝ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ ،‬ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪﻛﻨﻨﺪﮔﺎﻥ ﻣﺠﺒﻮﺭ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ‬
‫ﺩﺳﺘﻤﺰﺩﻫﺎ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ‪ ،‬ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﻣﺠﺪﺩ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻞ ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ ﻣﺪﺕ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﭼﭗ‬
‫ﺭﺍ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪( : ;3 @HI, C6D) T+,+FU! *% 23 <! "+.K> +FJP-N :(2-34) >)%6?8‬‬

‫»ﺍﻟﻒ«‬
‫‪AD1 LRAS‬‬ ‫‪SRAS1‬‬
‫‪P‬‬
‫‪Z‬‬ ‫‪SRAS0‬‬

‫‪AD0‬‬
‫‪P1‬‬ ‫‪C‬‬

‫‪P0‬‬ ‫‪A‬‬ ‫‪B‬‬

‫‪YF‬‬ ‫‪Y1‬‬

‫»ﺏ«‬ ‫‪LRAS‬‬
‫‪SRAS1‬‬
‫‪P‬‬ ‫‪AD1‬‬
‫‪SRASZ‬‬
‫‪PZ‬‬ ‫‪Z‬‬
‫‪SRAS0‬‬

‫‪D‬‬
‫‪AD0‬‬
‫‪P1‬‬ ‫‪C‬‬

‫‪P0‬‬ ‫‪A‬‬ ‫‪B‬‬

‫‪YF‬‬ ‫‪Y1‬‬

‫‪!$‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺗﺎ ﺯﻣﺎﻧﻲ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ ﻣﺪﺕ ﺑﺎ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﺑﻠﻨﺪ ﻣﺪﺕ ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ‬
‫ﻳﻜﺪﻳﮕﺮ ﺭﺍ ﻗﻄﻊ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ »ﺏ« ﺩﺭ ﻧﻘﻄﻪ ‪ Z‬ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ‪،‬‬
‫ﺍﺛﺮ ﺑﻠﻨﺪﻣﺪﺕ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﻮﻙ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺑﻮﺩﻥ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‬

‫ﺏ( ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪:‬‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻧﻘﺒﺎﺿﻲ )ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ‬
‫ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ(ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﭘﺎﻳﻴﻦ ﻣﻲ ﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪: ;3 EVF, C6D -‬‬

‫ﺷﻮﻙ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﻣﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻣﻨﻔﻲ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﻛﻪ ﻳﻜﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ‬
‫ﺑﻪ ﮔﻮﻧﻪﺍﻱ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻛﻨﺪ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﭼﭗ ﻭ ﭘﺎﻳﻴﻦ ﮔﺮﺩﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ‬
‫ﻧﺤﻮﻩ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ »ﺍﻟﻒ« )‪ (٢-٣٥‬ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ »ﺏ« )‪ (٢-٣٥‬ﻣﻼﺣﻈﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﭘﺎﻳﻴﻦ ﻧﻘﻄﻪ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺍﺯ‬
‫‪ A‬ﺑﻪ ‪ C‬ﻣﻨﺘﻘﻞ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻭ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻳﺠﺎﺩ ﺷﻜﺎﻑ ﺭﻛﻮﺩﻱ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ‪ YF-Y1‬ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﻫﻤﺎﻧﻨﺪ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ‬
‫ﻗﺒﻠﻲ‪ ،‬ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺍﺯ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺑﺮﺩﻥ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﻜﺎﻑ ﺭﻛﻮﺩﻱ ﺩﻭ ﺭﺍﻩ ﺣﻞ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪:‬‬

‫ﺗﻨﻈﻴﻤﻲ‪ :‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﻴﻮﻩ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺩﺭ ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ ﻣﺪﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻒ( ﺧﻮﺩ‬
‫)ﻧﻘﻄﻪ ‪ ( C‬ﻛﻤﺘﺮ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺍﺷﺘﻐﺎﻝ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ ،‬ﻫﻤﺎﻧﮕﻮﻧﻪ ﻛﻪ‬
‫ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ‬
‫)‪ (٢-٣٦‬ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪ ،‬ﻣﺎﺯﺍﺩ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻱ ﻛﺎﺭ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻱ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ‬
‫ﺍﺯ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﺻﻄﺤﻜﺎﻛﻲ ﻭ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻱ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺩﺳﺘﻤﺰﺩﻫﺎ ﺷﺪﻩ‬
‫ﻭ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻞ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﺭﺍﺳﺖ ﻣﻨﺘﻘﻞ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﺗﺎ ﺯﻣﺎﻧﻲ ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ ﻛﻪ‬
‫ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻘﻄﻪ ‪ Z‬ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪!%‬‬
 ‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ (١) ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ‬

T+, +FU! *% 23 -! : ;3 EVF, C6D -O) :(2-35) >)%6?8

«‫»ﺍﻟﻒ‬
LRAS
P
AD0 SRAS0
AD1

P0 A

Y
YF

«‫»ﺏ‬ LRAS
P
SRAS0
AD1
A

P1 C

‫ﺷﻜﺎﻑ ﺭﻛﻮﺩﻱ‬

Y
Y1 YF

( : ;3 EVF, C6D) T+, +FU! *% 23 <! "+.K> +FJP-N :(2-36) >)%6?8

P
LRAS

SRAS0
AD1

A
C SRASZ
P1

PZ Z

Y
Y1 YF

!&
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ :‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻳﻚ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻧﺒﺴﺎﻃﻲ‬ ‫ﺏ( ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎﻱ‬
‫)ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻳﺎ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕﻫﺎ( ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﺑﺎﻻ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ‬
‫ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-٣٧‬ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪ ،‬ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺍﺯ ‪ C‬ﺑﻪ ‪ A‬ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪T+, +FU! *% 23 9 EW XH8) EB , @K .K 0)-Y) :(2-37) >)%6?8‬‬

‫‪P‬‬ ‫‪LRAS‬‬

‫‪ADA‬‬ ‫‪SRAS0‬‬
‫‪AD1‬‬
‫‪PA‬‬ ‫‪A‬‬

‫‪P1‬‬ ‫‪C‬‬

‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪Y1‬‬ ‫‪YF‬‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺏ ﺷﻴﻮﻩ ﺭﺳﻴﺪﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﻻﺯﻡ ﺑﻪ ﺫﻛﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﺠﺎﺋﻴﻜﻪ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ‬
‫ﺷﻴﻮﻩ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺍﺻﻼﺣﻲ ﺯﻣﺎﻥﺑﺮ ﺑﻮﺩﻩ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺑﻠﻨﺪ ﻣﺪﺕ ﻋﺎﻳﺪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﻟﺬﺍ ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﻫﺪﻑ ﺭﺳﻴﺪﻥ‬
‫ﺳﺮﻳﻊ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻣﻄﻠﻮﺏﺗﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﮔﺮﭼﻪ ﻣﻘﺎﻳﺴﻪ ﺩﻭ‬
‫ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺑﺪﺳﺖ ﺁﻣﺪﻩ ﺩﺭ ﺑﻠﻨﺪ ﻣﺪﺕ ﺍﺯ ﺩﻭ ﺷﻴﻮﻩ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺍﺻﻼﺣﻲ‬
‫ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺣﺎﻟﻴﻜﻪ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺩﺭ ﺑﻠﻨﺪ ﻣﺪﺕ‬
‫ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺩﺭ ﻫﺮ ﺩﻭ ﺷﻴﻮﻩ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫‪:<:-= EF7F, G) ED 8 0 1C6D‬‬

‫ﻛﻠﻴﻪ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻠﻲ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻧﻈﻴﺮ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎﻱ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‪ ،‬ﺗﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﮊﻱ‪ ،‬ﻗﺎﺑﻠﻴﺖ‬
‫ﺩﺳﺘﺮﺳﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻭ ﻏﻴﺮﻩ ﮔﺮﺩﺩ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﻛﻪ‬
‫ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺑﺮﻭﺯ ﺷﻮﻙ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﻣﻨﻔﻲ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺛﺮﺍﺕ ﻫﺮ ﻳﻚ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ‬
‫ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫'!‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪:<:-= EVF, 0 1C6D -‬‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-٣٨‬ﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎﻱ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﭼﭗ ﻣﻨﺘﻘﻞ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻭ‬
‫ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺗﺎ ﻧﻘﻄﻪ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺍﺯ ‪ A‬ﺑﻪ ‪ B‬ﻣﻨﺘﻘﻞ ﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪<:-= EVF, C6D :(2-38) >)%6?8‬‬

‫‪P‬‬ ‫‪LRAS‬‬
‫‪SRAS1‬‬
‫‪AD0‬‬
‫‪SRAS0‬‬

‫‪B‬‬

‫‪P0‬‬ ‫‪A‬‬

‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪YF‬‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﻧﻘﻄﻪ ‪ B‬ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﻭ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﻧﻘﻄﻪ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ‬
‫ﺑﻠﻨﺪ ﻣﺪﺕ ‪ A‬ﺑﻪ ﻧﻘﻄﻪ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ ﻣﺪﺕ ‪ B‬ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﮔﻔﺘﻪ ﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﻧﻘﻄﻪ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ‬
‫ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ ﻣﺪﺕ ‪ A‬ﻳﻚ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﻧﺎﭘﺎﻳﺪﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺟﻬﺖ ﺭﺳﻴﺪﻥ ﺑﻪ ﻳﻚ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﭘﺎﻳﺪﺍﺭ ﻭ ﺑﻠﻨﺪ ﻣﺪﺕ ﺍﺯ‬
‫ﺩﻭ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﻋﻤﻞ ﻧﻤﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻒ( ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺗﻨﻈﻴﻤﻲ‪ :‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻣﺒﺘﻨﻲ ﺑﺮ ﻋﻘﻴﺪﻩ ﻛﻼﺳﻴﻚﻫﺎ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪،‬‬
‫ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻫﺎﻱ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺍﺻﻼﺡ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺑﻠﻨﺪ ﻣﺪﺕ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﺗﺎ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺑﻠﻨﺪ‬
‫ﻣﺪﺕ )ﺍﺯ ‪ B‬ﺑﻪ ‪ ( A‬ﺑﺎﺯﮔﺮﺩﺩ‪ .‬ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﺤﻮﻩ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺭﺍ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪.‬‬

‫(!‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪*% 23 <! "+.K> +FJP-N 9 E?.ZF3 %6[ :(2-39) >)%6?8‬‬

‫‪P‬‬ ‫‪LRAS‬‬

‫‪SRAS1‬‬
‫‪AD0‬‬

‫‪B‬‬ ‫‪SRAS0‬‬
‫‪P1‬‬

‫‪P0‬‬ ‫‪A‬‬

‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪Y1‬‬ ‫‪YF‬‬

‫ﺑﺎ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ ﻣﺪﺕ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﭼﭗ‪ ،‬ﻧﻘﻄﻪ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﺩﺭ ‪ B‬ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻘﻄﻪ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺭﻛﻮﺩ ﺗﻮﺭﻣﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺎﺯﺍﺩ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻱ ﻛﺎﺭ ﻣﻮﺍﺟﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ‪ ،‬ﻛﺎﺭﮔﺮﺍﻥ ﺩﺳﺘﻤﺰﺩﻫﺎﻱ ﻛﻤﺘﺮﻱ ﺭﺍ ﭘﻴﺸﻨﻬﺎﺩ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺩﺳﺘﻤﺰﺩﻫﺎ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ‬
‫ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎﻱ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻞ ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ ﻣﺪﺕ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﺭﺍﺳﺖ‬
‫ﻣﻨﺘﻘﻞ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ ﻣﺠﺪﺩﺍﹰ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻘﻄﻪ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺍﻭﻟﻴﻪ )‪ (A‬ﺑﺮﻣﻲﮔﺮﺩﺩ‪ .‬ﻻﺯﻡ ﺑﻪ ﺫﻛﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ‬
‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﺤﻮﻩ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺯﻣﺎﻥﺑﺮ ﺑﻮﺩﻩ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺑﻠﻨﺪ ﻣﺪﺕ ﺑﺎ ﻓﺮﺽ ﺍﻧﻌﻄﺎﻑﭘﺬﻳﺮﻱ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﻣﺤﻘﻖ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ‬
‫ﺷﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺏ( ﺍﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ :‬ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﺠﺎﺋﻴﻜﻪ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺗﻨﻈﻴﻤﻲ ﺩﺭ ﺑﻠﻨﺪ ﻣﺪﺕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺑﺨﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺳﺮﻳﻌﺘﺮ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻘﻄﻪ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺑﮕﻴﺮﺩ ﻭ‬
‫ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻱ ﺣﺬﻑ ﺷﻮﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﺰﺍﻣﻲ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻳﻚ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻧﺒﺴﺎﻃﻲ )ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﻭ‬
‫ﻳﺎ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕﻫﺎ( ﭼﮕﻮﻧﻪ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺑﻠﻨﺪ ﻣﺪﺕ ﺩﺳﺖ ﻳﺎﻓﺖ‪.‬‬

‫)!‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪*% 23 <! "+.K> +FJP-N 9 EB , @K .K * ?=) :(2-40) >)%6?8‬‬

‫‪P‬‬ ‫‪LRAS‬‬

‫‪AD1‬‬
‫‪SRAS1‬‬

‫‪AD0‬‬
‫‪PZ‬‬ ‫‪Z‬‬

‫‪P1‬‬ ‫‪C‬‬

‫‪A‬‬

‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪Y1‬‬ ‫‪YF‬‬

‫ﻃﺒﻖ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ ﻓﻮﻕ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎ ﺍﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻳﻚ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻧﺒﺴﺎﻃﻲ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﺍﺯ ‪ AD0‬ﺑﻪ‬
‫‪ AD1‬ﻣﻨﺘﻘﻞ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻭ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﺗﺎ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻘﻄﻪ ‪ Z‬ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺟﺪﻳﺪ‬
‫ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺍﻭﻟﻴﻪ ﻭ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺁﻣﺪﻩ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺭﻭﺵ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺗﻨﻈﻴﻤﻲ )ﻧﻘﻄﻪ ‪،(A‬‬
‫ﺳﻄﺢ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫‪:<:-= @HI, C6D -‬‬

‫ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﺷﻮﻙ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﺭﺍﺳﺖ ﺷﻮﺩ )ﺷﻮﻙ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ( ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ ﻭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻳﺎﻓﺖ‪ .‬ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ)‪(٢-٤١‬‬
‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﻭﺿﻌﻴﺖ ﺭﺍ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻃﺒﻖ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺑﺎ ﺑﻬﺒﻮﺩ ﺗﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﮊﻱ ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎﻱ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﺷﻮﻙ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ‬
‫ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ ﻣﺪﺕ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﺭﺍﺳﺖ )‪ SRAS0‬ﺑﻪ ‪ (SRAS1‬ﻣﻨﺘﻘﻞ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻭ‬
‫ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﺗﺎ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺤﻲ ﻓﺮﺍﺗﺮ ﺍﺯ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺍﺷﺘﻐﺎﻝ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻭ ﺳﻄﺢ‬
‫ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺭﺳﻴﺪﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺑﻠﻨﺪ ﻣﺪﺕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻭ ﺷﻴﻮﻩ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﻋﻤﻞ ﻧﻤﻮﺩ‪:‬‬

‫!‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪<:-= @HI, C6D :(2-40) >)%6?8‬‬

‫‪P‬‬
‫‪LRAS‬‬

‫‪AD0‬‬ ‫‪SRAS0‬‬

‫‪SRAS1‬‬
‫‪P0‬‬ ‫‪A‬‬

‫‪C‬‬

‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪YF‬‬ ‫‪Y1‬‬

‫ﺷﻜﺎﻑ ﺗﻮﺭﻣﻲ‬

‫ﺗﻨﻈﻴﻤﻲ‪ :‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﻴﻮﻩ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻫﺎﻱ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺍﺻﻼﺡ ﺩﺭ ﺑﻠﻨﺪ ﻣﺪﺕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻒ( ﺧﻮﺩ‬
‫ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﺠﺎﺋﻴﻜﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ‪ Y1‬ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺤﻲ ﻓﺮﺍﺗﺮ ﺍﺯ ﺍﺷﺘﻐﺎﻝ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ‬
‫ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ ،‬ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻓﺮﺍﺗﺮ ﺍﺯ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﺷﺘﻐﺎﻝ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺰﺍﻣﺎﹰ ﺩﺳﺘﻤﺰﺩﻫﺎ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ‬
‫ﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺩﺳﺘﻤﺰﺩﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺖ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎﻱ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻭ ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ‬
‫ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﭼﭗ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-٤٢‬ﻧﺤﻮﻩ ﺭﺳﻴﺪﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺑﻠﻨﺪ ﻣﺪﺕ ﺭﺍ‬
‫ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪*% 23 <! "+.K> +FJP-N 9 E?.ZF3 %6[ :(2-42) >)%6?8‬‬

‫‪LRAS‬‬
‫‪P‬‬
‫‪SRAS0‬‬
‫‪AD0‬‬
‫‪A‬‬ ‫‪SRAS1‬‬
‫‪P1‬‬
‫‪C‬‬

‫‪P0‬‬

‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪YF‬‬ ‫‪Y1‬‬
 ‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺩﺳﺘﻤﺰﺩﻫﺎ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﭼﭗ ﻣﻨﺘﻘﻞ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻭ‬
‫ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﺗﺎ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻘﻄﻪ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺍﻭﻟﻴﻪ ‪ A‬ﺑﺮﮔﺮﺩﺩ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ :‬ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﮔﻔﺘﻪ ﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﺠﺎﺋﻴﻜﻪ ﻭﺍﮔﺬﺍﺭ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﻥ‬ ‫ﺏ( ﺍﺟﺮﺍﻱ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎﻱ‬
‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻫﺎﻱ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺍﺻﻼﺡ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﺩﺳﺘﻴﺎﺑﻲ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺑﻠﻨﺪ ﻣﺪﺕ ﺯﻣﺎﻥﺑﺮ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪،‬‬
‫ﻟﺬﺍ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﻱ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻋﻤﺎﻝ‬
‫ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻧﻘﺒﺎﺿﻲ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ )ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕﻫﺎ( ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺑﻠﻨﺪ ﻣﺪﺕ ﺳﻮﻕ ﺩﺍﺩ‪ .‬ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-٤٣‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﻭﺿﻌﻴﺖ ﺭﺍ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪T+, +FU! *% 23 9 E: H;8) EB , @K .K 0)-Y) :(2-43) >)%6?8‬‬

‫‪P‬‬
‫‪LRAS‬‬
‫‪AD0‬‬
‫‪P1‬‬ ‫‪SRAS1‬‬
‫‪AD1‬‬

‫‪C‬‬
‫‪PZ‬‬
‫‪Z‬‬

‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪YF‬‬ ‫‪Y1‬‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻳﻚ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻧﻘﺒﺎﺿﻲ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﺍﺯ ‪ AD0‬ﺑﻪ ‪AD1‬‬
‫ﻣﻨﺘﻘﻞ ﻭ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﻭ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -١‬ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺯ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺮﺍﺝ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ؟‬
‫‪ -٢‬ﺑﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﻭ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ‪ ،‬ﺍﺛﺮ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﻚ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ )ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﻳﻜﺠﺎ(‬
‫ﺭﺍ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﻫﻴﺪ؟‬
‫‪ -٣‬ﺑﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻭ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﺍﺛﺮﺍﺕ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﻳﻜﺠﺎ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ‬
‫ﻭ ‪) GDP‬ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻲ( ﺩﺭ ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ ﻣﺪﺕ ﻭ ﺑﻠﻨﺪ ﻣﺪﺕ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﻫﻴﺪ‪ .‬ﻓﺮﺍﻳﻨﺪ‬
‫ﺗﻌﺪﻳﻞ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺭﺳﻴﺪﻥ ﺑﻪ ﻳﻚ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺑﻠﻨﺪ ﻣﺪﺕ ﺟﺪﻳﺪ ﺭﺍ ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺢ ﺩﻫﻴﺪ؟‬

‫"‬
 ‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪ -٤‬ﺑﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻞ ﻭ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ )‪ (AD/AS‬ﻭ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ‪ ،‬ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ‬
‫ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﺛﺮ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﻳﻜﺠﺎ ﻫﻨﮕﺎﻣﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺍﺷﺘﻐﺎﻝ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﺭﺍ‬
‫ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺢ ﻭ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﻫﻴﺪ؟ ﺍﺛﺮﺍﺕ ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ ﻣﺪﺕ ﻭ ﺑﻠﻨﺪ ﻣﺪﺕ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻧﻘﺒﺎﺿﻲ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮ ﺳﻄﺢ‬
‫ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ )‪ ،(Y‬ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ )‪ ،(i‬ﻭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ )‪ (P‬ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻣﺠﺰﺍ ﺗﺸﺮﻳﺢ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ؟‬
‫‪ -٥‬ﺑﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻞ ﻭ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ )‪ (AD/AS‬ﻭ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ‪ ،‬ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ‬
‫ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﺛﺮ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﻫﻨﮕﺎﻣﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺍﺷﺘﻐﺎﻝ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﺭﺍ‬
‫ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺢ ﻭ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﻫﻴﺪ؟ ﺍﺛﺮﺍﺕ ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ ﻣﺪﺕ ﻭ ﺑﻠﻨﺪ ﻣﺪﺕ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻧﺒﺴﺎﻃﻲ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮ ﺳﻄﺢ‬
‫ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ )‪ ،(Y‬ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ )‪ ،(i‬ﻭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ )‪ (P‬ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻣﺠﺰﺍ ﺗﺸﺮﻳﺢ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ؟‬

‫‪!" #$%&'( )*+ , )-. (2-7‬‬

‫ﺗﺎﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﻣﺪﻝ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﮔﺮﻓﺖ ﻭ‬
‫ﻧﺤﻮﻩ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻭ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﺨﺶ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﺑﺘﺪﺍ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻭ‬
‫ﺳﭙﺲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ‪ ،‬ﻧﺤﻮﻩ ﻛﻨﺘﺮﻝ ﻭ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ‬
‫ﻣﻲﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﺎ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﻛﺮﺩﻥ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺪﻝ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ ﺑﺎ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﻭ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺭﺍ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﺮ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺗﺠﺰﻳﻪ ﻭ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪ :)-. /0123(2-7-1‬ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻛﻠﻲ ﺍﺯ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺗﻌﺎﺭﻳﻒ ﻣﺘﻌﺪﺩﻱ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﻣﺎ‬

‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻔﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎﹰ ﺍﻛﺜﺮ ﻗﺮﻳﺐ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺗﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﺩﺍﻧﺎﻥ ﺑﺎ ﺁﻥ ﻣﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﺁﻥ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ‪ ،‬ﭘﻮﻝ ﺑﺮ‬
‫ﺣﺴﺐ ﻭﻇﺎﻳﻒ ﺁﻥ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﭼﻬﺎﺭﭼﻮﺏ ﻫﺮ ﭼﻴﺰﻱ ﻛﻪ ﺳﻪ ﻭﻇﻴﻔﻪ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺭﺍ‬
‫ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﺩﻫﺪ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻣﺤﺴﻮﺏ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻒ( ﻭﺳﻴﻠﻪ ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻟﻪ‬
‫ﺏ( ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺳﻨﺠﺶ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ‬
‫ﺝ( ﻭﺳﻴﻠﻪ ﺣﻔﻆ ﻳﺎ ﺫﺧﻴﺮﻩ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ‬
‫ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﭘﻲ ﺑﺮﺩﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻫﻤﻴﺖ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺳﻪ ﻭﻇﻴﻔﻪ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﭘﻮﻝ‪ ،‬ﻛﺎﻓﻲ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻧﮕﺎﻫﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻧﺤﻮﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻟﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻻﺗﻲ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﭘﺎﻳﺎﭘﺎﻱ ﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﻛﻪ ﻭﺳﻴﻠﻪﺍﻱ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ‬

‫‪#‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﭘﻮﻝ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻧﺪﺍﺷﺖ‪ ،‬ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻟﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺍﺑﺘﺪﺍﻳﻲ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﭘﺎﻳﺎﭘﺎﻱ ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﻛﺎﻻ ﺑﺎ ﻛﺎﻻ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﭘﻨﺞ ﻣﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﺳﺎﺳﻲ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪:‬‬
‫‪ (١‬ﺍﻃﻼﻉ ﺍﺯ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﻧﺴﺒﻲ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﺯﻳﺎﺩ‪ :‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻟﻪ ﻳﻜﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻓﻴﻦ‬
‫ﻣﻐﺒﻮﻥ ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﻧﺸﻮﺩ ﻭ ﻣﺘﻀﺮﺭ ﻧﮕﺮﺩﺩ ﻻﺯﻡ ﺑﻮﺩ ﺗﺎ ﺍﺯ ﺗﻤﺎﻣﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﻧﺴﺒﻲ ﺍﻃﻼﻉ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ‬
‫ﻧﻤﺎﻳﺪ‪ .‬ﻻﺯﻡ ﺑﻪ ﺫﻛﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺗﻌﺪﺍﺩ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﻧﺴﺒﻲ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺪﺕ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ‬
‫ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﺗﻌﺪﺍﺩ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﺳﻪ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﺳﻪ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻧﺴﺒﻲ ﻭ ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﭼﻬﺎﺭ‬
‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﺷﺶ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻧﺴﺒﻲ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ … ﻓﺮﺩ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﻳﺴﺖ ﺍﺯ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﻧﺴﺒﻲ ﺍﻃﻼﻉ‬
‫ﺣﺎﺻﻞ ﻣﻲﻛﺮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (٢‬ﻋﺪﻡ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻳﻚ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻣﺸﺘﺮﻙ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺳﻨﺠﺶ‪ :‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻣﺸﺘﺮﻛﻲ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺳﻨﺠﺶ‬
‫ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻟﻪ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺑﺎ ﻳﻜﺪﻳﮕﺮ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻧﺪﺍﺷﺖ ﻭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻣﺮ ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻟﻪ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﺷﻮﺍﺭ‬
‫ﻣﻲﻧﻤﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (٣‬ﻓﻘﺪﺍﻥ ﺩﻭ ﻃﺮﻓﻪ ﺍﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ‪ :‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻟﻪ ﺩﺭﺧﺼﻮﺹ ﻛﺎﻻﻳﻲ ﻛﻪ ﻓﺮﺩﻱ‬
‫ﺑﻪ ﺁﻥ ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﺩﻭ ﺷﺮﻁ ﻻﺯﻡ ﺑﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻭﻝ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﻣﺎﺯﺍﺩ ﻛﺎﻻﻱ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﻭﻱ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺩﺍﺷﺖ ﻭ ﺩﻭﻡ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﻓﺮﺩﻱ ﻛﻪ ﻣﺎﺯﺍﺩ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻛﺎﻻ ﺭﺍ ﻣﻲﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪ ،‬ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﺍﺭﺍﻳﻪ‬
‫ﻣﺎﺯﺍﺩ ﻛﺎﻻﻱ ﻓﺮﺩ ﻧﻴﺎﺯﻣﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﻛﺎﻻﻱ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻓﺮﺩ ﺗﺤﻮﻳﻞ ﺩﻫﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻟﺒﺘﻪ ﺗﺠﻤﻊ ﺍﻳﻦ‬
‫ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﺷﻮﺍﺭ ﺑﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (٤‬ﻓﻘﺪﺍﻥ ﻭﺳﻴﻠﻪ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺣﻔﻆ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ‪ :‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﻋﺪﻡ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻭﺳﻴﻠﻪﺍﻱ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺣﻔﻆ‬
‫ﺍﺭﺯﺵ‪ ،‬ﺫﺧﻴﺮﻩ ﻛﺮﺩﻥ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﺑﺎ ﺧﻄﺮ ﻓﺴﺎﺩ ﻭ ﺍﺯ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺭﻓﺘﻦ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﻫﻤﺮﺍﻩ ﺑﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (٥‬ﻏﻴﺮ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﺑﻮﺩﻥ ﺑﺮﺧﻲ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ‪ :‬ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻟﻪ ﺑﺮﺧﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﻳﻜﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺩﻳﮕﺮﻱ‬
‫ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﻏﻴﺮﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﻮﺩﻧﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺸﻜﻼﺕ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﻱ ﻫﻤﺮﺍﻩ ﺑﻮﺩﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻟﻪ ﻳﻚ ﺭﺃﺱ ﮔﺎﻭ ﺑﺎ ﮔﻮﺳﻔﻨﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺸﻜﻼﺕ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﻱ ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻟﻪ‪ ٢‬ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﭘﺎﻳﺎﭘﺎﻱ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺪﺕ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺩﺍﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻏﻠﺒﻪ ﺑﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ‬
‫ﻣﺸﻜﻼﺕ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻳﻲ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻣﺜﻞ ﻧﻤﻚ‪ ،‬ﮔﻨﺪﻡ‪ ... ،‬ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺏ ﻛﺮﺩﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺳﭙﺲ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺭﻓﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺸﻜﻼﺕ ﻭ ﺗﺴﻬﻴﻞ ﺍﻣﺮ ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻟﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺟﻮﺍﻣﻊ ﺑﺸﺮﻱ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺮﻋﺖ ﭘﻴﺸﺮﻓﺖ ﻛﺮﺩ؛ ﺑﻪ ﮔﻮﻧﻪﺍﻱ ﻛﻪ‬

‫‪2‬‬
‫‪- Transaction Cost‬‬

‫!‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺳﻜﻪﻫﺎﻱ ﻓﻠﺰﻱ ﻣﺜﻞ )ﺳﻜﻪ ﻣﺲ‪ ،‬ﺭﻭﻱ ﻭ ‪ ( ...‬ﻭ ﺳﭙﺲ ﺳﻜﻪﻫﺎﻱ ﻃﻼ ﻭ ﻧﻘﺮﻩ‪ ،‬ﭘﻮﻝ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻱ‬
‫)ﺳﻜﻪ ﻭ ﺍﺳﻜﻨﺎﺱ( ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻫﺎﻱ ﺩﻳﺪﺍﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻛﺎﺭﺕﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﭘﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻜﺘﺮﻭﻧﻴﻜﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺟﻤﻠﻪ‬
‫ﺗﺤﻮﻻﺗﻲ ﺑﻮﺩﻧﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻻﺗﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺁﻭﺭﻧﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻩﮔﻴﺮﻱ ﭘﻮﻝ‪ :‬ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻛﻠﻲ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺑﺮ ﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﻧﻘﺪﻳﻨﮕﻲ ﺁﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺷﻜﺎﻝ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﻲ ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺢ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫ﺳﭙﺮﺩﻩﻫﺎﻱ ﺟﺎﺭﻱ ‪ +‬ﺳﻜﻪ ﻭ ﺍﺳﻜﻨﺎﺱ = ‪) M١‬ﺣﺠﻢ ﭘﻮﻝ(‬

‫ﺳﭙﺮﺩﻩﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺪﺕﺩﺍﺭ ‪) M٢ = M١ +‬ﺣﺠﻢ ﻧﻘﺪﻳﻨﮕﻲ(‬

‫ﺗﻔﺎﻭﺕ ‪ M١‬ﻭ ‪ M٢‬ﺩﺭ ﻗﺎﺑﻠﻴﺖ ﻧﻘﺪﻳﻨﮕﻲ ﺁﻥ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ M١ .‬ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ‪ M٢‬ﻗﺎﺑﻠﻴﺖ ﻧﻘﺪﻳﻨﮕﻲ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮﻱ‬
‫ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﺒﺘﻪ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﺯ ﺣﺠﻢ ﻧﻘﺪﻳﻨﮕﻲ)‪ ( M٠٢‬ﻭ ﺣﺠﻢ ﭘﻮﻝ)‪ ،(M١‬ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎﻱ ﭘﻮﻟﻲ ﺩﻳﮕﺮﻱ ﻫﻤﭽﻮﻥ‬
‫‪ M٣‬ﻭ ‪ M٤‬ﻭ ‪ M٥‬ﻭ ‪ ...‬ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺍﺯ ﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﻧﻘﺪﻳﻨﮕﻲ ﻛﻤﺘﺮﻱ ﺑﺮﺧﻮﺭﺩﺍﺭ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﺘﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﭘﻮﻝ )‪ M٣‬ﻭ ‪ M٤‬ﻭ ‪ M٥‬ﻭ ‪ ( ...‬ﺳﺎﻳﺮ ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻳﻲﻫﺎﻱ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﻭﺭﺍﻕ‬
‫ﻗﺮﺿﻪ ﻭ ﺍﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺍﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﻣﻨﻘﻮﻝ ﻭ ﻏﻴﺮ ﻣﻨﻘﻮﻝ ﻟﺤﺎﻅ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪ :()-. <=> 6-78) 4 )1&5" 6-78 , )-. 9:1; (2-7-2‬ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻛﻠﻲ ﭘﻨﺞ ﻧﻬﺎﺩ ﺩﺭ‬

‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺑﺮ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻭ ﺧﻠﻖ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻣﺆﺛﺮﻧﺪ‪:‬‬

‫‪ (٥‬ﺑﺨﺶ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻲ‬ ‫‪ (٤‬ﻣﺮﺩﻡ‬ ‫‪ (٣‬ﺩﻭﻟﺖ‬ ‫‪ (٢‬ﺳﻴﺴﺘﻢ ﺑﺎﻧﻜﻲ‬ ‫‪ (١‬ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ‬
‫ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﺯ ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺧﺘﻦ ﺑﻪ ﻫﺮ ﻳﻚ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﻓﻮﻕ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﺑﺘﺪﺍ ﻻﺯﻡ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺗﺎ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﭘﺎﻳﻪ ﭘﻮﻟﻲ ﻭ ﺍﺟﺰﺍﺀ‬
‫ﺁﻥ ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺢ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺳﭙﺲ ﻧﺤﻮﻩ ﺍﺛﺮﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﻫﺮ ﻳﻚ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﻣﺰﺑﻮﺭ ﺑﺮ ﭘﺎﻳﻪ ﭘﻮﻟﻲ ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺢ‬
‫ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﭘﺎﻳﻪ ﭘﻮﻟﻲ‪ :١‬ﭘﺎﻳﻪ ﭘﻮﻟﻲ ﺑﺮ ﺣﺴﺐ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻭ ﻣﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺁﻥ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﭘﺎﻳﻪ ﭘﻮﻟﻲ ﺑﺮ‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫ﺣﺴﺐ ﻣﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺍﺳﻜﻨﺎﺱ ﻭ ﻣﺴﻜﻮﻙ ﺩﺭ ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥ‪ .‬ﺑﺪﻳﻦ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ‬
‫ﻓﺮﻣﻮﻝ ﭘﺎﻳﻪ ﭘﻮﻟﻲ ﺑﺮ ﺣﺴﺐ ﻣﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺭﺍ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻧﻮﺷﺖ‪:‬‬
‫‪B=(N-C1)+TR‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫‪– Base money‬‬

‫"‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﻓﻮﻕ )‪ (N-C1‬ﺁﻥ ﻗﺴﻤﺖ ﺍﺯ ﺍﺳﻜﻨﺎﺱ ﻭ ﻣﺴﻜﻮﻛﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺻﻨﺪﻭﻕ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ‬
‫ﻧﻴﺴﺖ ﻭ ‪ TR‬ﻛﻞ ﺫﺧﺎﻳﺮ ﺳﻴﺴﺘﻢ ﺑﺎﻧﻜﻲ )ﺫﺧﺎﻳﺮ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﻲ ﻭ ﺫﺧﺎﻳﺮ ﻣﺎﺯﺍﺩ( ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﭘﺎﻳﻪ ﭘﻮﻟﻲ ﺑﺮ ﺣﺴﺐ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺍﺯ ﻛﻠﻴﻪ ﺍﻗﻼﻡ ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻳﻲ ﻭ ﺑﺪﻫﻲ ﺗﺮﺍﺯﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ‬
‫ﺑﻪ ﺟﺰ ﺳﻜﻪ ﻭ ﺍﺳﻜﻨﺎﺱ ﺩﺭ ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥ )‪ (N-C1‬ﻭ ﺫﺧﺎﻳﺮ ﺳﻴﺴﺘﻢ ﺑﺎﻧﻜﻲ ‪ .TR‬ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ‪ ،‬ﺍﺟﺰﺍﺀ‬
‫ﺗﺸﻜﻴﻞ ﺩﻫﻨﺪﻩ ﭘﺎﻳﻪ ﭘﻮﻟﻲ ﺭﺍ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﺮ ﺣﺴﺐ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﭘﺎﻳﻪ ﭘﻮﻟﻲ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻧﻮﺷﺖ‪.‬‬

‫‪ +‬ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﺒﺎﺕ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻴﺴﺘﻢ ﺑﺎﻧﻜﻲ ‪ +‬ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﺒﺎﺕ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻲ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ=‪ =B‬ﭘﺎﻳﻪ ﭘﻮﻟﻲ‬

‫ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺳﺎﻳﺮ ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻳﻲﻫﺎ ‪ +‬ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﺒﺎﺕ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ ﺍﺯ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﻓﻮﻕ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﺒﺎﺕ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻲ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ‪ ،‬ﺍﺯ ﺍﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻳﻲﻫﺎﻱ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻲ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ‬
‫ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ ﺍﺯ ﺑﺪﻫﻲﻫﺎﻱ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻲ ﺁﻥ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻭ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﺒﺎﺕ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ ﺍﺯ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺍﺯ ﺍﺧﺘﻼﻑ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻡ ﺍﻋﻄﺎﻳﻲ ﺳﻴﺴﺘﻢ ﺑﺎﻧﻜﻲ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺨﺶ ﺩﻭﻟﺘﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺳﭙﺮﺩﻩﻫﺎﻱ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﻧﺰﺩ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ ﺑﺪﺳﺖ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺁﻳﺪ‪ .‬ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺳﺎﻳﺮ ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻳﻲﻫﺎ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﺳﺎﻳﺮ ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻳﻲﻫﺎﻱ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺯ‬
‫ﺁﻥ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﻭ ﺳﺎﻳﺮ ﺑﺪﻫﻲﻫﺎ ﻛﺴﺮ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﺎ ﺭﻭﺷﻦ ﺷﺪﻥ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﭘﺎﻳﻪ ﭘﻮﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﺑﻪ ﻧﺤﻮﻩ ﺍﺛﺮﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﻫﺮ ﻳﻚ ﺍﺯ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﭘﻨﺠﮕﺎﻧﻪ ﻣﺆﺛﺮ‬
‫ﺑﺮ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﭘﻮﻝ ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺧﺘﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍ( ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ‪:‬‬

‫ﻃﺒﻖ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻥ ﭘﻮﻟﻲ ﻭ ﺑﺎﻧﻜﻲ ﻣﺼﻮﺏ ‪ ،٥١/٤/١٨‬ﻫﺪﻑ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ ﺣﻔﻆ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﭘﻮﻝ‪ ،‬ﺣﻔﻆ‬
‫ﻣﻮﺍﺯﻧﻪﻱ ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺧﺖﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﺗﺴﻬﻴﻞ ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻻﺕ ﺑﺎﺯﺭﮔﺎﻧﻲ ﻭ ﻛﻤﻚ ﺑﻪ ﺭﺷﺪ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﻋﻼﻭﻩ ﺑﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻣﺴﺌﻮﻝ ﺗﻨﻈﻴﻢ ﻭ ﺍﺟﺮﺍﻱ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﭘﻮﻟﻲ ﻭ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻱ‬
‫ﺑﺮﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﻛﻠﻲ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﭘﻮﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﻪ ﺗﺪﺍﺑﻴﺮﻱ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﺑﻪ ﻛﻨﺘﺮﻝ ﻭ ﺗﻨﻈﻴﻢ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ﻭ ﻳﺎ‬
‫ﺣﺠﻢ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻇﺎﻳﻒ ﻭ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ‪:‬‬
‫‪ (١‬ﺍﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﺳﻜﻪ ﻭ ﺍﺳﻜﻨﺎﺳﻬﺎﻱ ﻓﻠﺰﻱ ﺭﺍﻳﺞ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ‬
‫‪ (٢‬ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﭘﻮﻟﻲ ﺑﻴﻦﺍﻟﻤﻠﻠﻲ ﻭ ﻧﻈﺎﺭﺕ ﺑﺮ ﻧﻘﻞ ﻭ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﺭﺯﻱ‬
‫‪ (٣‬ﻧﮕﻬﺪﺍﺭﻱ ﻃﻼ ﻭ ﺍﺭﺯ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﭘﺸﺘﻮﺍﻧﻪﻱ ﭘﻮﻝ‬

‫‪#‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪ (٤‬ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﺑﺎﻧﻚﻫﺎ ﻭﻇﺎﻳﻒ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪:‬‬

‫ﻧﮕﻬﺪﺍﺭﻱ ﺳﭙﺮﺩﻩ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﻲ ﺑﺎﻧﻚﻫﺎ‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫ﺍﻋﻄﺎﻱ ﻭﺍﻡﻫﺎﻱ ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ ﻣﺪﺕ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻴﺴﺘﻢ ﺑﺎﻧﻜﻲ‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫ﺗﻨﺰﻳﻞ ﻣﺠﺪﺩ ﺍﺳﻨﺎﺩ‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫ﻧﻈﺎﺭﺕ ﺑﺮ ﺑﺎﻧﻚﻫﺎ‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫‪ (٥‬ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﻭﻇﺎﻳﻒ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮ ﻋﻬﺪﻩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪:‬‬
‫ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺧﺖ ﻭ ﺩﺭﻳﺎﻓﺖ ﻛﻠﻴﻪ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﻭﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫ﺧﺮﻳﺪ ﻭ ﻓﺮﻭﺵ ﺍﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﻗﺮﺿﻪ ﺩﻭﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫ﺍﻋﻄﺎﻱ ﻭﺍﻡ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ )ﺍﮔﺮ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺑﺎ ﻛﺴﺮﻱ ﺑﻮﺩﺟﻪ ﺭﻭﺑﺮﻭ ﺷﻮﺩ(‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻛﻠﻲ ﻣﺪﻝ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮﺡ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪:‬‬

‫‪M1‬‬ ‫‪m.B‬‬

‫ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﻓﻮﻕ ‪ m‬ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻭ ‪ B‬ﭘﺎﻳﻪ ﭘﻮﻟﻲ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﻃﺒﻖ ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ‪ ،m‬ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ‬
‫ﭘﺎﻳﻪ ﭘﻮﻟﻲ ﻳﻚ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﺑﺪ ﺣﺠﻢ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻳﺎﻓﺖ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﻭﺍﻗﻊ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﻛﻨﺘﺮﻝ ﭘﺎﻳﻪ ﭘﻮﻟﻲ ﻭ ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺣﺠﻢ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺩﻫﺪ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (٢‬ﺳﻴﺴﺘﻢ ﺑﺎﻧﻜﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺳﻴﺴﺘﻢ ﺑﺎﻧﻜﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺑﺎﻧﻜﻲ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺧﻠﻖ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻛﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﻋﻤﻞ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ‬
‫ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺳﭙﺮﺩﻩﻫﺎﻱ ﺩﻳﺪﺍﺭﻱ ﻭ ﻣﺪﺕﺩﺍﺭ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﻣﻲﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﺭﻭﺷﻦ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﻥ ﻧﺤﻮﻩ‬
‫ﺧﻠﻖ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻧﺨﺴﺖ ﻓﺮﻭﺽ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﺳﺎﺩﻩﺳﺎﺯﻱ ﻧﺤﻮﻩ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺑﺎﻧﻜﻲ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻒ( ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﻳﻚ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺏ( ﺍﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺑﺎ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﻭﺍﻡ ﺍﺯ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺠﺪﺩﺍﹰ ﺁﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺳﭙﺮﺩﻩﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﻨﺪ ﻭ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻧﻘﺪ ﺩﺳﺖ‬
‫ﻣﺮﺩﻡ ﺻﻔﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﺝ( ﻓﻘﻂ ﻳﻚ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺟﺎﺭﻱ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩ( ﻭﺟﻮﻩ ﺁﻣﺎﺩﻩ ﺑﻪ ﻭﺍﻡ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﺻﻔﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫‪$‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﻫـ( ﻧﺮﺥ ﺫﺧﻴﺮﻩ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﻲ ‪ ١٠‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﺠﺎﺋﻴﻜﻪ ﻛﻠﻴﻪ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺑﺎﻧﻜﻲ ﺩﺭ ﺗﺮﺍﺯﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺳﻴﺴﺘﻢ ﺑﺎﻧﻜﻲ ﺛﺒﺖ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﻟﺬﺍ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ‬
‫ﻧﻤﻮﺩﻥ ﻧﺤﻮﻩ ﺧﻠﻖ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﺳﻴﺴﺘﻢ ﺑﺎﻧﻜﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺗﺮﺍﺯﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﻓﺮﺽ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‬
‫ﻛﻪ ﺗﺮﺍﺯﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻣﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪:‬‬

‫ﺑﺪﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﺮﺍﺯﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺑﺎﻧﻜﻲ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻳﻲ‬

‫‪١٠٠‬‬ ‫ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ‬ ‫‪٦‬‬ ‫ﭘﻮﻝ ﻧﻘﺪ‬
‫‪٩٤‬‬ ‫ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻤﺎﻥ‬
‫‪١٠٠‬‬ ‫‪١٠٠‬‬

‫ﻓﺮﺽ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻣﻲﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻣﺮ ﺍﻗﺪﺍﻡ‬
‫ﺑﻪ ﺧﺮﻳﺪ ﺑﺨﺸﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﻗﺮﺿﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻣﺮﺩﻡ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﻓﺮﺽ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ ﻓﺮﺩ »ﺍﻟﻒ« ﻣﺒﻠﻎ ‪١٠٠‬‬
‫ﺭﻳﺎﻝ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩﻱ ﺍﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﻗﺮﺿﻪ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ ﻓﺮﻭﺧﺘﻪ ﻭ ﺭﻳﺎﻝ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺁﻣﺪﻩ ﺭﺍ‬
‫ﻧﺰﺩ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﺩﺭ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺳﭙﺮﺩﻩ ﺟﺎﺭﻱ ﺧﻮﺩ ﻧﮕﻬﺪﺍﺭﻱ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻭﻟﻴﻦ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ‬
‫ﻭﺿﻌﻴﺖ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺩﺭ ﺗﺮﺍﺯﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻧﻈﺮ )ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﺗﺠﺎﺭﻱ( ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫ﺑﺪﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﺮﺍﺯﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺑﺎﻧﻜﻲ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻳﻲ‬

‫‪١٠٠‬‬ ‫ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ‬ ‫‪٦‬‬ ‫ﭘﻮﻝ ﻧﻘﺪ‬
‫‪ ٩٤‬ﺳﭙﺮﺩﻩ ﻓﺮﺩ ”ﺍﻟﻒ“ ‪١٠٠‬‬ ‫ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻤﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺳﭙﺮﺩﻩ ﻓﺮﺩ )ﭘﻮﻝ ﻧﻘﺪ( ‪١٠٠‬‬
‫‪٢٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٢٠٠‬‬

‫ﺑﻪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺁﻧﻜﻪ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﻮﻇﻒ ﺑﻪ ﻧﮕﻬﺪﺍﺭﻱ ‪ %١٠‬ﺍﺯ ﻭﺟﻮﻩ ﺳﭙﺮﺩﻩﻫﺎ ﺗﺤﺖ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﺫﺧﻴﺮﻩ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﻲ‬
‫ﻧﺰﺩ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ ،‬ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺩﻩ ﺭﻳﺎﻝ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻭﺟﻮﻩ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺳﭙﺮﺩﻩﻱ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﻲ‬
‫ﻧﺰﺩ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ ﻧﮕﻬﺪﺍﺭﻱ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ ﻭ ‪ ٩٠‬ﺭﻳﺎﻝ ﺑﺎﻗﻴﻤﺎﻧﺪﻩ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺫﺧﻴﺮﻩ ﺍﺿﺎﻓﻲ ﺩﺭ‬

‫‪%‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﺑﺎﻗﻲ ﻣﻲﻣﺎﻧﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺁﻥ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺸﺘﺮﻳﺎﻥ ﺧﻮﺩ ﻭﺍﻡ ﺩﻫﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ‬
‫ﺗﺮﺍﺯﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ‪:‬‬

‫ﺑﺪﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﺮﺍﺯﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺑﺎﻧﻜﻲ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻳﻲ‬

‫‪١٠٠‬‬ ‫ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ‬ ‫‪٦‬‬ ‫ﭘﻮﻝ ﻧﻘﺪ‬
‫‪ ٩٤‬ﺳﭙﺮﺩﻩ ﻓﺮﺩ ”ﺍﻟﻒ“ ‪١٠٠‬‬ ‫ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻤﺎﻥ‬
‫‪٩٠‬‬ ‫ﻭﺟﻮﻩ ﺁﻣﺎﺩﻩ ﺑﻪ ﻭﺍﻡ‬
‫‪١٠‬‬ ‫ﺫﺧﻴﺮﻩ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﻲ‬
‫‪٢٠٠‬‬ ‫‪٢٠٠‬‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﺩﻭﻡ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ‪ ٩٠‬ﺭﻳﺎﻝ ﻭﺟﻮﻩ ﺁﻣﺎﺩﻩ ﺑﻪ ﻭﺍﻡ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺸﺘﺮﻱ ﻣﺘﻘﺎﺿﻲ ﻭﺍﻡ‬
‫ﻣﺜﻼﹰ ﻓﺮﺩ ”ﺏ“ ﻗﺮﺽ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ ﭼﻮﻥ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ‪ ،‬ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﻃﺒﻖ ﻓﺮﺽ ﺗﻤﺎﻣﻲ‬
‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﺑﻪ ﻭﺳﻴﻠﻪﻱ ﭼﻚ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﻓﺮﺩ ﻭﺟﻮﻩ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺳﭙﺮﺩﻩ ﺟﺎﺭﻱ‬
‫ﻧﺰﺩ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﺣﻔﻆ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺩﺭ ﺗﺮﺍﺯﻧﺎﻣﻪﻱ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﺩﻭﻡ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ‬
‫ﺯﻳﺮ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫ﺑﺪﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﺮﺍﺯﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺑﺎﻧﻜﻲ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻳﻲ‬

‫‪١٠٠‬‬ ‫ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ‬ ‫‪٦‬‬ ‫ﭘﻮﻝ ﻧﻘﺪ‬
‫‪ ٩٤‬ﺳﭙﺮﺩﻩ ﻓﺮﺩ ”ﺍﻟﻒ“ ‪١٠٠‬‬ ‫ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻤﺎﻥ‬
‫‪٩٠‬‬ ‫‪ ٩٠‬ﺳﭙﺮﺩﻩ ﻓﺮﺩ »ﺏ«‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻡ ﺑﻪ ﻓﺮﺩ »ﺏ«‬
‫‪١٠‬‬ ‫ﺫﺧﻴﺮﻩ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﻲ‬
‫‪٩٠‬‬ ‫ﭘﻮﻝ ﻧﻘﺪ‬
‫‪٢٩٠‬‬ ‫‪٢٩٠‬‬

‫ﺑﻪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺁﻧﻜﻪ ﺳﭙﺮﺩﻩ ﺩﻳﺪﺍﺭﻱ ﺟﺰﺋﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻧﻘﺪﻳﻨﮕﻲ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ ،‬ﺗﺎ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﺑﺎﻧﻜﻲ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ‪٩٠‬‬
‫ﺭﻳﺎﻝ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺑﺎﻧﻜﻲ ﺍﻳﺠﺎﺩ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺳﭙﺮﺩﻩ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ‪ ٩٠‬ﺭﻳﺎﻝ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﻜﻠﻒ‬

‫&‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺍﺳﺖ ﻃﺒﻖ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻥ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ‪ ١٠‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺫﺧﻴﺮﻩ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﻲ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﺳﻮﻡ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻴﻢ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪:‬‬

‫ﺑﺪﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﺮﺍﺯﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺑﺎﻧﻜﻲ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻳﻲ‬

‫‪١٠٠‬‬ ‫ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ‬ ‫‪٦‬‬ ‫ﭘﻮﻝ ﻧﻘﺪ‬
‫‪ ٩٤‬ﺳﭙﺮﺩﻩ ﻓﺮﺩ ”ﺍﻟﻒ“ ‪١٠٠‬‬ ‫ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻤﺎﻥ‬
‫‪٩٠‬‬ ‫‪ ٩٠‬ﺳﭙﺮﺩﻩ ﻓﺮﺩ »ﺏ«‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻡ ﺑﻪ ﻓﺮﺩ »ﺏ«‬
‫‪١٠+٩‬‬ ‫ﺫﺧﻴﺮﻩ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﻲ‬
‫‪٨١‬‬ ‫ﻭﺟﻮﻩ ﺁﻣﺎﺩﻩ ﺑﻪ ﻭﺍﻡ‬
‫‪٢٩٠‬‬ ‫‪٢٩٠‬‬

‫ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﻭﺟﻮﻩ ﺁﻣﺎﺩﻩ ﺑﻪ ﻭﺍﻡ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ‪ ٨١‬ﺭﻳﺎﻝ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻣﺠﺪﺩﺍﹰ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺁﻥ ﺭﺍ ﻭﺍﻡ‬
‫ﺩﻫﺪ‪ .‬ﭘﺲ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻋﻄﺎﻱ ﻭﺍﻡ ﺑﻪ ﻓﺮﺩ »ﺝ« ﻭ ﺳﭙﺮﺩﻩﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻓﺮﺩ ﻧﺰﺩ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻭ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺫﺧﻴﺮﻩ‬
‫ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﻲ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ‪ ،‬ﺗﺮﺍﺯﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﭼﻬﺎﺭﻡ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮﺡ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ‪.‬‬

‫ﺑﺪﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﺮﺍﺯﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺑﺎﻧﻜﻲ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻳﻲ‬

‫‪١٠٠‬‬ ‫ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ‬ ‫‪٦‬‬ ‫ﭘﻮﻝ ﻧﻘﺪ‬
‫‪ ٩٤‬ﺳﭙﺮﺩﻩ ﻓﺮﺩ ”ﺍﻟﻒ“ ‪١٠٠‬‬ ‫ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻤﺎﻥ‬
‫‪٩٠‬‬ ‫‪ ٩٠‬ﺳﭙﺮﺩﻩ ﻓﺮﺩ »ﺏ«‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻡ ﺑﻪ ﻓﺮﺩ »ﺏ«‬
‫‪٨١‬‬ ‫ﺫﺧﻴﺮﻩ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﻲ ‪ ١٠+٩+٨/١‬ﺳﭙﺮﺩﻩ ﻓﺮﺩ »ﺝ«‬
‫ﻭﺟﻮﻩ ﺁﻣﺎﺩﻩ ﺑﻪ ﻭﺍﻡ ‪٧٢/٩‬‬
‫‪٣٧١‬‬ ‫‪٣٧١‬‬

‫ﻭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﻫﻤﭽﻨﺎﻥ ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ ﺗﺎ ﺯﻣﺎﻧﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺳﭙﺮﺩﻩﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﻧﺰﺩ ﺳﻴﺴﺘﻢ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻧﻜﻲ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﺻﻔﺮ ﻣﻴﻞ ﻛﻨﺪ ﻭ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﺫﺧﻴﺮﻩ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﻲ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ‪ ١٠٠‬ﺭﻳﺎﻝ ﮔﺮﺩﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﻓﻮﻕ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺟﻤﻊﺑﻨﺪﻱ ﻧﻤﻮﺩ‪:‬‬
‫‪ = ١٠٠+٩٠+٨١+٧٢/٩+...‬ﺣﺠﻢ ﺳﭙﺮﺩﻩ ﺍﻓﺮﺍﺩ‬
‫‪ =١٠٠ +١٠٠( ٩ ) + ١٠٠( ٩ ) ( ٩ ) + ١٠٠( ٩ ) ( ٩ ) ( ٩ ) +...‬ﺣﺠﻢ ﺳﭙﺮﺩﻩ ﺍﻓﺮﺍﺩ‬
‫‪١٠‬‬ ‫‪١٠ ١٠‬‬ ‫‪١٠ ١٠ ١٠‬‬

‫('‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺑﺎ ﺟﻤﻊ ﺑﺴﺘﻦ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺳﺮﻱ ﻫﻨﺪﺳﻲ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻴﻢ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪:‬‬

‫‪١٠٠‬‬
‫‪ = ١ -٠/٩ = ١٠٠ =١٠٠٠‬ﺣﺠﻢ ﺳﭙﺮﺩﻩ ﺍﻓﺮﺍﺩ‬
‫‪٠/١‬‬
‫ﺑﺪﻳﻦ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ‪ ،‬ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ ‪ ١٠٠‬ﺗﻮﻣﺎﻥ ﺍﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﻗﺮﺿﻪ ﺧﺮﻳﺪﺍﺭﻱ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﺪ ﻭ ﻭﺟﻮﻩ ﺁﻥ‬
‫ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﻣﺮﺩﻡ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻧﮕﻬﺪﺍﺭﻱ ﺷﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎ ﻓﺮﺽ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺫﺧﻴﺮﻩ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﻲ ‪ ،%١٠‬ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ‬
‫‪ ١٠٠٠‬ﺗﻮﻣﺎﻥ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺧﻠﻖ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﺪ‪ .‬ﺣﺠﻢ ﺫﺧﺎﻳﺮ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﻲ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺍﺯ‪:‬‬
‫‪ = ١٠ + ٩ + ٨/١ + ... = ١٠٠‬ﺣﺠﻢ ﺫﺧﻴﺮﻩ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﻲ‬
‫ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻛﻠﻲ ﻃﺒﻖ ﺭﻭﺍﺑﻂ ﻓﻮﻕ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﺑﺮﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﻗﺎﻋﺪﻩ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺍﻗﺪﺍﻡ ﺑﻪ ﺧﻠﻖ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫‪A‬‬
‫ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺩﺭ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺳﭙﺮﺩﻩﻫﺎﻱ ﺟﺎﺭﻱ ﻣﺮﺩﻡ‬
‫‪r‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﻓﻮﻕ ‪ A‬ﻭﺟﻮﻩ ﺍﻭﻟﻴﻪ )‪ ١٠٠‬ﺗﻮﻣﺎﻥ( ﻭ ‪ r‬ﻧﺮﺥ ﺫﺧﻴﺮﻩ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﻲ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﻗﺒﻼﹰ ﮔﻔﺘﻪ ﺷﺪ ﻛﻞ ﺣﺠﻢ ﭘﻮﻝ‪ ،‬ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻧﻘﺪ ﻧﺰﺩ ﻣﺮﺩﻡ )‪ (C‬ﻭ ﺳﭙﺮﺩﻩﻫﺎﻱ ﺩﻳﺪﺍﺭﻱ‬
‫)‪ (D‬ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ‪:‬‬

‫‪M1‬‬ ‫‪C!D‬‬

‫‪"M 1‬‬ ‫‪"C ! "D‬‬ ‫ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺩﺭ ﺣﺠﻢ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺍﺯ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﺠﺎﺋﻴﻜﻪ ﺑﻨﺎ ﺑﻪ ﻓﺮﺽ ‪ "C 0‬ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻴﻢ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪:‬‬
‫‪A‬‬
‫‪"M 1‬‬ ‫‪"D‬‬
‫‪r‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫ﺟﺰﺋﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ‬
‫‪r‬‬
‫ﭘﻮﻝ) ‪ ( M 1 m.B‬ﺳﻴﺴﺘﻢ ﺑﺎﻧﻜﻲ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺣﺠﻢ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (٣‬ﺩﻭﻟﺖ‪ ،‬ﺑﺨﺶ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻲ ﻭ ﻣﺮﺩﻡ‪:‬‬

‫ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﭘﺎﻳﻪ ﭘﻮﻟﻲ )ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﺒﺎﺕ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ ﺍﺯ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ(‪ ،‬ﺑﺨﺶ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻲ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺍﺯ‬
‫ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﭘﺎﻳﻪ ﭘﻮﻟﻲ ﻭ ﻣﺮﺩﻡ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻧﻨﺪ ﺑﺮ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﻭﺍﻗﻊ‬
‫ﺷﻮﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﻣﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﺗﻔﺼﻴﻠﻲ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﺨﺶ ﺩﺭ ﺩﺭﻭﺱ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻃﻪ ﺫﻛﺮ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﺳﺎﺩﮔﻲ ﺑﺤﺚ ﻓﺮﺽ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻳﻚ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺛﺎﺑﺘﻲ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ‬
‫ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺁﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﻳﻚ ﺧﻂ ﻋﻤﻮﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﺁﻧﭽﻨﺎﻧﻜﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-٤٤‬ﺗﺮﺳﻴﻢ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬

‫'‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪)-. 9:1; :(2-44)?(#-@8‬‬

‫‪MS‬‬
‫‪ ،i‬ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ‬
‫‪P‬‬

‫‪M‬‬
‫‪P‬‬

‫‪:)-. )1&5" 6-78 , DE-. F$GAB$CB (2-7-3‬‬

‫ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻛﻠﻲ ﺍﺑﺰﺍﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﭘﻮﻟﻲ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻭ ﺩﺳﺘﻪ ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﻧﺪ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻒ( ﺍﺑﺰﺍﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﻛﻤ‪‬ﻲ‪ :‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺑﺰﺍﺭﻫﺎ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺗﻨﺪ ﺍﺯ؛‬
‫ﻧﺮﺥ ﺫﺧﻴﺮﻩ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﻲ‪ :‬ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺩﺭ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺫﺧﻴﺮﻩ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﻲ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺑﺮ‬ ‫‪(١‬‬
‫ﺣﺠﻢ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﮔﺬﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﻭ ﺁﻥ ﺭﺍ ﻛﻨﺘﺮﻝ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﺎ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺫﺧﻴﺮﻩ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﻲ ﺩﺭﺻﺪ‬
‫ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮﻱ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺒﺎﻟﻎ ﺳﭙﺮﺩﻩﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺑﺎﻧﻜﻬﺎ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﮔﻴﺮﺩ ﻭ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺭﺍ ﻗﺎﺩﺭ ﻣﻲﺳﺎﺯﺩ ﺗﺎ‬
‫ﺑﺘﻮﺍﻧﻨﺪ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮﻱ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺸﺘﺮﻳﺎﻥ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺑﺪﻫﻨﺪ ﻭ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻜﺲ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺣﺠﻢ‬
‫ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺟﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺫﺧﻴﺮﻩﻱ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻳﻜﻲ ﺍﺯ‬
‫ﺍﺑﺰﺍﺭ ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﭘﻮﻟﻲ ﺷﻤﺮﺩﻩ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺩﺭ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺗﻨﺰﻳﻞ ﻣﺠﺪﺩ‪ :‬ﺩﻭﻣﻴﻦ ﺍﺑﺰﺍﺭ ﻛﻨﺘﺮﻝ ﺣﺠﻢ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ‬ ‫‪(٢‬‬
‫ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺗﻨﺰﻳﻞ ﻣﺠﺪﺩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻧﺮﺥ ﺗﻨﺰﻳﻞ ﻣﺠﺪﺩ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺍﺯ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩﺍﻱ ﻛﻪ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ ﻭﺿﻊ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ ﻧﺮﺥ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ ﺍﺳﻨﺎﺩ ﺍﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﻣﺪﺕﺩﺍﺭ ﺑﺎﻧﻜﻬﺎ ﺭﺍ‬
‫ﺗﻨﺰﻳﻞ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻗﺒﺎﻝ ﺁﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺎﻧﻜﻬﺎ ﻭﺍﻡ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﺠﺎﻳﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻣﺮ ﺗﺠﺎﺭﺕ ﺍﻏﻠﺐ‬
‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﻣﺪﺕﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻓﻲ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻠﻪﻛﻨﻨﺪﮔﺎﻥ ﻣﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ‬
‫ﻧﻴﺎﺯﻣﻨﺪ ﻭﺟﻮﻩ ﻧﻘﺪ ﺷﻮﻧﺪ‪ ،‬ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺴﺌﻠﻪ ﺗﻨﺰﻳﻞ ﺍﺳﻨﺎﺩ ﺗﺠﺎﺭﻱ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﺍﺯ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻣﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺑﺎﻧﻜﻲ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻛﺜﺮ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫''‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﻫﻤﺎﻥﻃﻮﺭ ﻛﻪ ﻣﺸﺘﺮﻳﺎﻥ ﺑﺎﻧﻜﻬﺎ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻧﻨﺪ ﺍﺳﻨﺎﺩ ﺗﺠﺎﺭﻱ ﺭﺍ ﻧﺰﺩ ﺑﺎﻧﻚﻫﺎ ﺗﻨﺰﻳﻞ ﻛﻨﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻧﻜﻬﺎ ﻧﻴﺰ‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﻣﻮﺍﻗﻊ ﻟﺰﻭﻡ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻧﻨﺪ ﺍﺳﻨﺎﺩ ﺗﻨﺰﻳﻠﻲ ﻣﺸﺘﺮﻳﺎﻥ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﻧﺰﺩ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ ﻣﺠﺪﺩﺍﹰ ﺗﻨﺰﻳﻞ‬
‫ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻨﺪ ﻭ ﺍﺯ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ ﻭﺍﻡ ﺩﺭﻳﺎﻓﺖ ﻛﻨﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﺒﺘﻪ ﺗﻔﺎﻭﺗﻲ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺗﻨﺰﻳﻞ ﺑﺎﻧﻜﻬﺎ ﻭ ﻧﺮﺥ‬
‫ﺗﻨﺰﻳﻞ ﻣﺠﺪﺩ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺗﻨﺰﻳﻞ ﻣﺠﺪﺩ ‪ ٧‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﻭ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺗﻨﺰﻳﻞ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻧﻜﻬﺎ ‪ ١٠‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺩﺭ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺗﻨﺰﻳﻞ ﻣﺠﺪﺩ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ ﺯﻳﺮﺍ‬
‫ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺩﺭ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺗﻨﺰﻳﻞ ﻣﺠﺪﺩ ﺑﺎﻋﺚ ﺗﻨﺰﻳﻞ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﺍﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﻧﺰﺩ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ‬
‫ﻣﺒﺎﻟﻎ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮﻱ ﻭﺟﻪ ﻧﻘﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺯ ﺳﻴﺴﺘﻢ ﺑﺎﻧﻜﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﮔﻴﺮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪﻱ ﺁﻥ ﮔﺴﺘﺮﺵ‬
‫ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺗﻨﺰﻳﻞ ﻣﺠﺪﺩ ﺍﺛﺮﻱ ﻣﻌﻜﻮﺱ ﺑﺮ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﮔﺬﺍﺷﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﺪﻳﻦ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺩﺭ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺗﻨﺰﻳﻞ ﻣﺠﺪﺩ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺑﺮ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻧﻜﻬﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺯﻣﻴﻨﻪﻱ ﺑﺴﻂ ﻳﺎ ﺍﻧﻘﺒﺎﺽ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﺗﺠﺎﺭﻱ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﺑﮕﺬﺍﺭﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭﺑﺎﺯ‪ :‬ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭﺑﺎﺯ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺍﺯ ﺧﺮﻳﺪ ﻭ ﻓﺮﻭﺵ ﺍﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﻗﺮﺿﻪ‬ ‫‪(٣‬‬
‫ﺩﻭﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻮﺍﻗﻊ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﻱ ﺑﺎ ﺧﺮﻳﺪ ﻳﺎ ﻓﺮﻭﺵ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻭﺭﺍﻕ‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﺁﺯﺍﺩ ﺭﻭﻱ ﺣﺠﻢ ﻧﻘﺪﻳﻨﮕﻲ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻣﻲﮔﺬﺍﺭﺩ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻋﻤﻞ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭﺑﺎﺯ ﮔﻔﺘﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺍﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﻗﺮﺿﻪ ﮔﻔﺘﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﺍﺳﻨﺎﺩﻱ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻱ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺍﺳﻤﻲ ﺛﺎﺑﺘﻲ ﺑﻮﺩﻩ‬
‫ﻛﻪ ﺻﺎﺣﺐ ﺁﻥ ﺳﺎﻟﻴﺎﻧﻪ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﻣﺒﻠﻎ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺷﺪﻩﺍﻱ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﺎﺯﺩﻩ ﺩﺭﻳﺎﻓﺖ ﻛﻨﺪ ﻭ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﭘﺎﻳﺎﻥ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻛﻞ ﺑﻬﺎﻱ ﺍﺳﻤﻲ ﺁﻥ ﺳﻨﺪ ﺑﻪ ﺻﺎﺣﺐ ﺁﻥ ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺧﺖ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻳﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻱ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﻣﺘﺸﻜﻞ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﺧﺮﻳﺪ ﻭ ﻓﺮﻭﺵ ﺍﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﻗﺮﺿﻪ‬
‫ﺍﻣﺮﻱ ﻣﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﻟﺤﺎﻅ ﺧﺮﻳﺪﺍﺭﺍﻥ ﻭ ﻓﺮﻭﺷﻨﺪﮔﺎﻥ ﺍﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺩﺭ ﻫﺮ ﻟﺤﻈﻪ ﺍﺯ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻧﻨﺪ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﻣﺮﺍﺟﻌﻪ ﻭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺭﻭﺯ ﺧﺮﻳﺪﺍﺭﻱ ﻛﻨﻨﺪ ﻭ ﻳﺎ‬
‫ﺑﻪ ﻓﺮﻭﺵ ﺑﺮﺳﺎﻧﻨﺪ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻻﺗﻲ ﺍﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﻗﺮﺿﻪ ﺑﺎ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺍﺳﻤﻲ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﻣﻌﻤﻮﻻﹰ ﻣﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻣﺎ ﭼﺮﺍ ﻣﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺍﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﻗﺮﺿﻪ ﺑﻴﺶ ﺍﺯ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺍﺳﻤﻲ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ؟‬
‫ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﭘﺎﺳﺦ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺳﺌﻮﺍﻝ‪ ،‬ﻓﺮﺽ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ ﺑﮕﻴﺮﺩ ﺗﺎ ﺣﺠﻢ ﻧﻘﺪﻳﻨﮕﻲ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ ﺭﺍ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺩﻫﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﺷﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﻪ ﺧﺮﻳﺪ ﺑﺨﺸﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻭﺭﺍﻕ‬
‫ﻗﺮﺿﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﺁﺯﺍﺩ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﺪﻳﻬﻲ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺧﺮﻳﺪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻭﺭﺍﻕ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻲ‬

‫)'‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺮ ﺍﺯ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺍﺳﻤﻲ ﺁﻥ ﭘﻴﺸﻨﻬﺎﺩ ﻛﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺍﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﻗﺮﺿﻪ‪ ،‬ﺑﻪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺑﻮﺩﻥ‬
‫ﺑﺎﺯﺩﻫﻲ ﺳﺎﻻﻧﻪﻱ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩﻱ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪﻱ ﻣﻬﻢ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﺤﺚ ﺁﻥ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﺍﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺑﻬﺎﺭﺩﺍﺭ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺑﺎ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﺔ‬
‫ﻣﻌﻜﻮﺱ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﻳﻌﻨﻲ ﻭﻗﺘﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺍﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺑﻬﺎﺩﺍﺭ ﺑﺎﻻ ﻣﻲﺭﻭﺩ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺑﺎﻋﺚ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺩﺭ ﻧﺮﺥ‬
‫ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻜﺲ‪ .‬ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ ﺑﺎ ﺧﺮﻳﺪ ﺍﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﻗﺮﺿﻪ ﺑﺎﻋﺚ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺩﺳﺖ ﻣﺮﺩﻡ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺣﺠﻢ ﻧﻘﺪﻳﻨﮕﻲ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ ﺑﺎ ﻓﺮﻭﺵ ﺍﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﻗﺮﺿﻪ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻣﻌﻜﻮﺳﻲ ﺑﺮ ﺣﺠﻢ ﻧﻘﺪﻳﻨﮕﻲ ﺑﮕﺬﺍﺭﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺏ( ﺍﺑﺰﺍﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﻛﻴﻔﻲ‪ :‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺑﺰﺍﺭﻫﺎ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺗﻨﺪ ﺍﺯ‪:‬‬
‫‪ (١‬ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺳﻘﻒ ﻭﺍﻡ ﻭ ﺗﺴﻬﻴﻼﺕ‪ :‬ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ ﺑﺮﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻗﺎﻋﺪﻩ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﻛﻨﺘﺮﻝ ﺣﺠﻢ‬
‫ﭘﻮﻝ‪ ،‬ﺳﻴﺴﺘﻢ ﺑﺎﻧﻜﻲ ﺭﺍ ﻣﻜﻠﻒ ﻣﻲﺳﺎﺯﺩ ﺗﺎ ﻭﺍﻡ ﻭ ﺗﺴﻬﻴﻼﺕ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺗﺎ ﺳﻘﻒ ﻣﺸﺨﺼﻲ ﺍﺭﺍﻳﻪ‬
‫ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻨﺪ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (٢‬ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﻛﺎﺭﻣﺰﺩ ﻭ ﺳﻮﺩ ﺑﺎﻧﻜﻬﺎ‪ :‬ﺑﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺳﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ﺑﺎﻧﻚﻫﺎ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻮﻱ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﻻﺯﻡ ﺑﻪ ﺫﻛﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﻋﺪﻡ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻣﻨﺴﺠﻢ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‪ ،‬ﻗﺎﺑﻠﻴﺖ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺍﺑﺰﺍﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﻛﻴﻔﻲ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﺧﻼﺻﻪ‪ ،‬ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﻫﺪﻑ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺣﺠﻢ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺩﺭ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺍﺯ‬
‫ﻳﻚ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﭘﻮﻟﻲ ﺍﻧﺒﺴﺎﻃﻲ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﺟﺮﺍﻱ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺫﺧﻴﺮﻩ‬
‫ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﻲ ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺗﻨﺰﻳﻞ ﻣﺠﺪﺩ )ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﻫﺮ ﺩﻭ( ﺭﺍ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﺍﻗﺪﺍﻡ ﺑﻪ ﺧﺮﻳﺪ ﺍﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﻗﺮﺿﻪ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﻃﺒﻖ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-٤٥‬ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﺭﺍﺳﺖ ﻣﻨﺘﻘﻞ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻜﺲ‪.‬‬
‫‪S‬‬ ‫‪#‬‬ ‫‪S‬‬
‫‪M‬‬ ‫‪M‬‬
‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻃﺒﻖ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ ﺯﻳﺮ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎ ﺍﺟﺮﺍﻱ ﻳﻚ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﭘﻮﻟﻲ ﺍﻧﺒﺴﺎﻃﻲ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﺍﺯ‬
‫‪P‬‬ ‫‪P‬‬
‫ﻣﻨﺘﻘﻞ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫!'‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪DH$IJ8( DE-. AB$CB K0 )$@;( :(2-45) ?(#-@8‬‬

‫‪S‬‬
‫‪M‬‬ ‫‪M S#‬‬
‫‪ ،i‬ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ‬
‫‪P‬‬ ‫‪P‬‬

‫‪M‬‬
‫‪P‬‬

‫‪ :)-. F$:$L3 (2-7-4‬ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﭘﻮﻟﻲ ﻛﻪ ﻣﺮﺩﻡ ﺗﻤﺎﻳﻞ ﺑﻪ ﻧﮕﻬﺪﺍﺭﻱ ﺁﻥ ﺩﺍﺭﻧﺪ‪ ،‬ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﭘﻮﻝ‬

‫ﻧﺎﻣﻴﺪﻩ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﻻﺯﻡ ﺑﻪ ﺫﻛﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻳﻚ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﺍﻧﺒﺎﺭﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﻛﻪ‬
‫ﺑﺨﺸﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺛﺮﻭﺕ ﺍﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺗﻤﺎﻳﻞ ﺩﺍﺭﻧﺪ ﺩﺭ ﻫﺮ ﻟﺤﻈﻪ ﺍﺯ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻧﻘﺪ )ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻳﻴﻬﺎﻳﻲ ﻣﺎﻧﻨﺪ ﺍﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺑﻬﺎﺩﺍﺭ‪ ،‬ﺍﻣﻼﻙ ﻳﺎ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ ﺑﺎﺩﻭﺍﻡ ( ﻧﮕﻬﺪﺍﺭﺍﻱ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻨﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺯﻣﻴﻨﻪ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﭘﻮﻝ‪ ،‬ﻧﻈﺮﻳﻪﻫﺎ ﻣﺘﻌﺪﺩﻱ ﻣﻄﺮﺡ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻈﺮﻳﻪﻫﺎ ﻫﺪﻑ ﺁﻥ ﺍﺳﺖ‬
‫ﺗﺎ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻣﻮﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﻳﻲ ﺷﻮﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻣﺎ ﻛﻴﻨﺰ ﻳﻜﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺴﻨﺠﻢﺗﺮﻳﻦ ﻧﻈﺮﻳﻪﻫﺎﻱ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ‬
‫ﭘﻮﻝ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺍﻭﻟﻴﻦ ﺑﺎﺭ ﺍﺭﺍﺋﻪ ﻧﻤﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﻃﺒﻖ ﻧﻈﺮﻳﻪ ﻛﻴﻨﺰ ﺍﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺳﻪ ﺍﻧﮕﻴﺰﻩ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ‬
‫ﭘﻮﻝ ﺩﺍﺭﻧﺪ‪:‬‬
‫‪ (١‬ﺍﻧﮕﻴﺰﻩﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺗﻲ‪ :‬ﺍﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻻﺕ ﺭﻭﺯﻣﺮﻩ ﺧﻮﺩ ﻫﻤﻴﺸﻪ ﺑﺨﺸﻲ ﺍﺯ‬
‫ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻧﻘﺪ ﻧﮕﻬﺪﺍﺭﻱ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﺍﻧﮕﻴﺰﻩ‬
‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺗﻲ ﻃﺒﻖ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﻣﻲﺁﻳﺪ‪:‬‬
‫‪M 1D‬‬
‫= ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺗﻲ ﭘﻮﻝ‬ ‫‪KY‬‬
‫‪P‬‬
‫‪ (٢‬ﺍﻧﮕﻴﺰﻩ ﺍﺣﺘﻴﺎﻃﻲ‪ :‬ﺩﺭ ﺑﺮﺧﻲ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺍﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﻗﺴﻤﺘﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻧﻘﺪ‬
‫ﺑﻪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﻣﻮﺍﺟﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺣﻮﺍﺩﺙ ﻏﻴﺮﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﭘﻴﺶﺑﻴﻨﻲ ﻳﺎ ﻏﻴﺮ ﻣﺘﺮﻗﺒﻪ ﻧﮕﻬﺪﺍﺭﻱ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﺍﻋﺘﻘﺎﺩ‬
‫ﻛﻴﻨﺰ‪ ،‬ﺍﻧﮕﻴﺰﻩﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺗﻲ ﻭ ﺍﺣﺘﻴﺎﻃﻲ ﻫﺮ ﺩﻭ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎﹰ ﻣﺘﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺑﺎ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ‪.‬‬

‫"'‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺗﻲ ﻭ ﺍﺣﺘﻴﺎﻃﻲ ﻛﻴﻨﺰ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﺗﺎﺑﻌﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ‬
‫ﺑﺴﺘﮕﻲ ﻧﺪﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻣﺰﺑﻮﺭ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-٤٦‬ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺯﻳﺮ‬
‫ﺗﺮﺳﻴﻢ ﻛﺮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪M5C" DH$C&N( , D3!+$2+ F$:$L3 :(2-46) ?(#-@8‬‬

‫‪M 1D‬‬
‫‪ ،i‬ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ‬
‫‪P‬‬

‫‪M‬‬
‫‪P‬‬

‫‪(٣‬ﺍﻧﮕﻴﺰﻩﻱ ﺑﻮﺭﺱ ﺑﺎﺯﻱ )ﻧﻘﺪﻳﻨﮕﻲ ﻳﺎ ﺳﻔﺘﻪﺑﺎﺯﻱ(‪ :‬ﻧﮕﻬﺪﺍﺭﻱ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ‬
‫ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺳﻮﺩﺁﻭﺭ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻓﺮﺽ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ ﻛﻪ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ﺩﺭ ﺣﺪ‬
‫ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﭘﺎﻳﻴﻨﻲ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﮔﻔﺘﻪ ﺷﺪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻣﺮ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﺑﺎﻻ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺍﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺑﻬﺎﺩﺍﺭ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻛﻴﻨﺰ ﻭﻗﺘﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺍﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺑﻬﺎﺩﺍﺭ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺖ ﻣﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻣﺮﺩﻡ ﺗﺮﺟﻴﺢ ﺩﻫﻨﺪ‬
‫ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﺛﺮﻭﺗﺸﺎﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻧﻘﺪ ﻧﮕﻪ ﺩﺍﺭﻧﺪ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻣﻴﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﺯ ﺑﺎﻻ ﺭﻓﺘﻦ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ‬
‫ﻭ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺍﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺑﻬﺎﺩﺍﺭ ﺁﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻟﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺑﻬﺎﺩﺍﺭ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﻫﻨﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻛﻴﻨﺰ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻧﮕﻴﺰﻩ ﺭﺍ ﺍﻧﮕﻴﺰﻩ ﺑﻮﺭﺱ ﺑﺎﺯﻱ ﻣﻲﻧﺎﻣﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﺪﻳﻦ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻧﻘﺪﻳﻨﮕﻲ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺗﺎﺑﻌﻲ ﻣﻨﻔﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ ،‬ﺑﻪ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ؛‬
‫‪M 2D‬‬ ‫‪dM 2D‬‬
‫‪f (i ) ,‬‬ ‫‪$0‬‬
‫‪P‬‬ ‫‪di‬‬
‫ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ ،(٢-٤٧‬ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻧﻘﺪﻳﻨﮕﻲ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺭﺍ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪'#‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪DO50*L8 F$:$L3 D575+ :(2-47) ?(#-@8‬‬

‫‪i‬‬

‫‪M 2D‬‬
‫‪i0‬‬
‫‪P‬‬

‫‪M‬‬
‫‪M‬‬ ‫‪P‬‬
‫)‬
‫‪P‬‬

‫ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﺑﺎ ﺟﻤﻊ ﺑﺴﺘﻦ ﺩﻭ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺗﻲ ﻭ ﻧﻘﺪﻳﻨﮕﻲ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﭘﻮﻝ‬
‫ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺁﻭﺭﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪M 1D M 2D‬‬ ‫‪%M D‬‬ ‫‪%M D‬‬

‫ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﭘﻮﻝ‬ ‫!‬ ‫) ‪ky ! f (i‬‬ ‫‪h( y, i ),‬‬ ‫‪& 0,‬‬ ‫‪$0‬‬
‫‪P‬‬ ‫‪P‬‬ ‫‪%y‬‬ ‫‪%i‬‬
‫ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ‪ ،‬ﺍﺯ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻛﻴﻨﺰ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻫﻢ ﺑﺴﺘﮕﻲ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻭ ﻫﻢ ﺑﻪ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﺎ ﺟﻤﻊ ﺑﺴﺘﻦ ﺍﻓﻘﻲ ﺩﻭ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺗﻲ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻭ ﻧﻘﺪﻳﻨﮕﻲ‪ ،‬ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ‬
‫ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-٤٨‬ﺗﺮﺳﻴﻢ ﻧﻤﻮﺩ‪:‬‬

‫‪)-. P" F$:$L3 D575+ :(2-48) ?(#-@8‬‬

‫‪i‬‬

‫‪D‬‬
‫‪M‬‬
‫‪P‬‬

‫‪M‬‬
‫‪P‬‬
‫ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺗﻲ‬

‫‪'$‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ ،(٢-٤٩‬ﺍﺛﺮ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪ .‬ﻃﺒﻖ‬
‫ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ ﻣﺬﻛﻮﺭ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ )ﺑﺎ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺑﻮﺩﻥ ﺳﺎﻳﺮ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ( ﺍﺯ ‪ y0‬ﺑﻪ ‪ ، y1‬ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ‬
‫ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻠﺖ ﺍﻧﮕﻴﺰﻩﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺗﻲ ﻭ ﺍﺣﺘﻴﺎﻃﻲ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﻣﺎ ﺑﺎ‬
‫ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺑﻮﺩﻥ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺘﻲ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ﺍﺳﻤﻲ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪ ،‬ﺍﻧﮕﻴﺰﻩﻱ ﺑﻮﺭﺱ ﺑﺎﺯﻱ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻋﺚ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻜﺲ‪.‬‬

‫‪)-. P" F$:$L3 D575+ 1U *+4?# R0(MS( 1T( :(2-49) ?(#-@8‬‬

‫‪i‬‬

‫‪D#‬‬
‫‪M‬‬
‫) ‪( y1 , i‬‬
‫‪P‬‬
‫‪D‬‬
‫‪M‬‬
‫) ‪( y0 , i‬‬
‫‪P‬‬

‫‪M‬‬
‫‪P‬‬
‫ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺗﻲ‬

‫‪ :)-. ?(V$U ?# )#$23 (2-7-5‬ﺑﺎ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﺷﺪﻥ ﺗﻮﺍﺑﻊ ﻭ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲﻫﺎﻱ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻭ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ‬

‫ﭘﻮﻝ‪ ،‬ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﺓ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺭﺍ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﻛﺮﺩ‬
‫ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-٥٠‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﻭﺿﻌﻴﺖ ﺭﺍ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪)-. ?(V$U ?# )#$23 :(2-50) ?(#-@8‬‬

‫‪i‬‬
‫‪M S0‬‬
‫‪P‬‬

‫‪i0‬‬
‫‪LY 0‬‬
‫‪M‬‬

‫‪'%‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﻃﺒﻖ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ‪ ،‬ﺍﺯ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮﻱ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲﻫﺎﻱ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻭ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ‬
‫‪ i0‬ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﻋﺮﺿﺔ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺍﺯ ‪ Ms0‬ﺑﻪ ‪ Ms1‬ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪ ،‬ﻫﻤﺎﻧﮕﻮﻧﻪ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ‬
‫)‪ (٢-٥١‬ﻣﻼﺣﻈﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ﺍﺯ ‪ i0‬ﺑﻪ ‪ i1‬ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻋﺮﺿﺔ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﺗﺎ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﭘﻮﻝ )ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ( ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪)-. ?(V$U ?# )-. 9:1; R0(MS( 1T( :(2-51) ?(#-@8‬‬

‫‪i‬‬ ‫‪M S 0 M S1‬‬

‫‪P‬‬ ‫‪P‬‬

‫‪i0‬‬
‫‪i1‬‬ ‫‪LY 0‬‬
‫‪M‬‬
‫‪P‬‬

‫‪F#$%&'( ]B$5+ F$GAB$CB W$X3( , !" F$G1CY&+ 1U )-. F?(Z[ 1T( \-78 (2-8‬‬
‫ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﺷﺪﻥ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻭ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻭ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺣﺠﻢ‬
‫ﭘﻮﻝ ﻭ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ‪ ،‬ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺪﻝﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﻧﻤﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺁﺛﺎﺭ ﺁﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮ‬
‫ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎﻳﻲ ﻧﻈﻴﺮ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‪ ،‬ﻗﻴﻤﺖ‪ ،‬ﺍﺷﺘﻐﺎﻝ ﻭ ﻏﻴﺮﻩ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻗﺴﻤﺖ ﺳﻌﻲ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﻧﺨﺴﺖ ﻧﺤﻮﺓ ﺍﺛﺮﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺪﻝ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ ﺑﺎ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ‬
‫ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﺳﭙﺲ ﺍﺛﺮﺍﺕ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ ﺑﺎ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺗﺠﺰﻳﻪ ﻭ‬
‫ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪AU$T F$GA@C' $U !" #$%&'( )*+ ?# )-. ^(1T( (2-8-1‬‬

‫ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-٥٢‬ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪ ،‬ﺑﻴﻦ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻭ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻛﺎﻻ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﻣﺘﻘﺎﺑﻠﻲ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ‬
‫ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ )ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﭘﻮﻝ( ﻭ ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮ ﺁﻥ ﺑﺮ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ )ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ‬
‫ﻛﺎﻻ( ﻭ ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ )ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻛﺎﻻ( ﻭ ﺍﺛﺮ ﺁﻥ ﺑﺮ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺑﺮﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫&'‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪)-. ?(V$U , _$" ?(V$U PU$L&+ `$J3?( :(2-52) ?(#-@8‬‬

‫‪i‬‬
‫‪i‬‬
‫‪M S0‬‬
‫‪P‬‬
‫‪i0‬‬

‫‪LY 0‬‬ ‫‪I‬‬

‫‪M‬‬ ‫‪I‬‬
‫‪I0‬‬
‫‪AE‬‬ ‫‪P‬‬

‫‪AE ! C‬‬ ‫‪I0‬‬ ‫‪G‬‬ ‫‪NX‬‬

‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪Y0‬‬

‫ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ‪ ،‬ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺑﺮ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻣﻮﺛﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻧﻘﺶ‬
‫ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﻩﺍﻱ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﻭ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺧﻮﺩ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺭﺍ‬
‫ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺟﺰﺋﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺁﻥ ﻧﻘﺶ‬
‫ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻗﺴﻤﺖ ﺳﻌﻲ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻳﻚ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﭘﻮﻟﻲ ﻭ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺁﺛﺎﺭ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﻣﺪﻝ ﻣﺰﺑﻮﺭ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﭘﻮﻟﻲ‬
‫ﻓﺮﺽ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ ﺍﻗﺪﺍﻡ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺗﺨﺎﺫ ﻳﻚ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﭘﻮﻟﻲ ﺍﻧﺒﺴﺎﻃﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺧﺮﻳﺪ‬
‫ﺍﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﻗﺮﺿﻪ ﻣﻲﻧﻤﺎﻳﺪ‪ .‬ﻃﺒﻖ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-٥٣‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻣﺮ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﺔ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺑﻪ‬
‫‪M S1‬‬ ‫‪M‬‬
‫ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺭﺍﺳﺖ ﺍﺯ ‪ S 0‬ﺑﻪ‬
‫‪P‬‬ ‫‪P‬‬

‫()‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪&'()*%! &+#, -.(/. (01 :(2-53) !"#$%‬‬

‫‪i‬‬ ‫‪i‬‬
‫‪M S 0 M S1‬‬
‫‪P‬‬ ‫‪P‬‬

‫‪i0‬‬

‫‪LY 0‬‬ ‫‪I‬‬

‫‪M‬‬ ‫‪I‬‬
‫‪AE‬‬ ‫‪I0‬‬
‫‪P‬‬

‫‪AE ! C‬‬ ‫‪I0‬‬ ‫‪G‬‬ ‫‪NX‬‬

‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪Y0‬‬

‫ﺑﺎ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ‪ ،‬ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ‬
‫ﻭ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺛﺮﺍﺕ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-٥٤‬ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫‪23 4 (56 78!9:! ; &'()*%! &+#, -.(/. :(2-54) !"#$%‬‬

‫‪i‬‬ ‫‪M S 0 M S1‬‬ ‫‪i‬‬

‫‪P‬‬ ‫‪P‬‬

‫‪i0‬‬

‫‪LY 0‬‬ ‫‪I‬‬

‫‪M‬‬ ‫‪I‬‬
‫‪I 0 I1‬‬
‫‪AE‬‬ ‫‪P‬‬
‫‪AE ! C‬‬ ‫‪I1‬‬ ‫‪G‬‬ ‫‪NX‬‬
‫‪AE ! C‬‬ ‫‪I0‬‬ ‫‪G‬‬ ‫‪NX‬‬

‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪Y0‬‬ ‫‪Y1‬‬

‫!‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺍﺛﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻋﺮﺿﺔ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻫﻤﭽﻨﺎﻥ ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﺪﻳﻦ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ‬
‫ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺗﻲ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺍﺯ ‪ LY0‬ﺑﻪ ‪ LY1‬ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ ﻭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻃﺒﻖ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪(٢-٥٥‬‬
‫ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺧﻮﺩ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﺯ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺍﻭﻟﻴﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻧﺮﺥ‬
‫ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ﺭﺍ ﺧﻨﺜﻲ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪<#, =(>(?@ ; &A6 B61 " 78!9:! C&'()*%! &+#, -.(/. :(2-55) !"#$%‬‬

‫‪i‬‬ ‫‪M S 0 M S1‬‬ ‫‪i‬‬

‫‪P‬‬ ‫‪P‬‬
‫‪LY 0‬‬

‫‪i0‬‬
‫‪i1‬‬ ‫‪I‬‬
‫‪LY 1‬‬
‫‪M‬‬ ‫‪I‬‬
‫‪I0‬‬ ‫‪I1‬‬
‫‪AE‬‬ ‫‪P‬‬
‫‪AE ! C‬‬ ‫‪I1‬‬ ‫‪G‬‬ ‫‪NX‬‬
‫‪AE ! C‬‬ ‫‪I0‬‬ ‫‪G‬‬ ‫‪NX‬‬

‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪Y0‬‬ ‫‪Y1‬‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺖ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ‪ i1‬ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﻃﺒﻊ ﺁﻥ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ‪ I1‬ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﻭ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﺳﻤﺖ ﺑﺎﻻ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ‪ Y1‬ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻣﻲﮔﺮﺩﺩ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ‬

‫ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-٥٦‬ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺍﻭﻟﻴﻪ ﺭﺍ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻧﺒﺴﺎﻃﻲ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ‪ ،‬ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ‪ ،‬ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﻮﺡ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺍﻭﻟﻴﻪ ‪،i0‬‬
‫‪ I0‬ﻭ‪ Y0‬ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫"!‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪<#, ; D(3 !E(F G/+;! <"(H@ :(2-56) !"#$%‬‬

‫‪i‬‬ ‫‪M S0‬‬ ‫‪i‬‬

‫‪P‬‬

‫‪i0‬‬
‫‪LY 0‬‬ ‫‪I‬‬
‫‪M‬‬ ‫‪I‬‬
‫‪AE‬‬ ‫‪I0‬‬
‫‪P‬‬

‫‪AE ! C‬‬ ‫‪I0‬‬ ‫‪G‬‬ ‫‪NX‬‬

‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪Y0‬‬

‫ﺑﺎ ﺍﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻧﺒﺴﺎﻃﻲ‪ ،‬ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺍﺯ ‪ G0‬ﺑﻪ ‪ G1‬ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ‬
‫ﻫﻤﺎﻧﮕﻮﻧﻪ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-٥٧‬ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺷﺪﻩ‪ ،‬ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻻ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪.‬‬

‫!!‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪&'()*%! &+(6 -.(/. I8 <($J! :(2-57) !"#$%‬‬

‫‪i‬‬ ‫‪M S0‬‬ ‫‪i‬‬

‫‪P‬‬

‫‪i0‬‬
‫‪LY 0‬‬ ‫‪I‬‬
‫‪M‬‬ ‫‪I‬‬
‫‪AE‬‬ ‫‪I0‬‬
‫‪P‬‬
‫‪AE ! C‬‬ ‫‪I0‬‬ ‫‪G1‬‬ ‫‪NX‬‬
‫‪AE ! C‬‬ ‫‪I0‬‬ ‫‪G0‬‬ ‫‪NX‬‬

‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪Y0‬‬

‫ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺑﺎﻋﺚ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺗﻲ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﺎ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻻ ﺭﻓﺘﻦ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ‪ ،‬ﻫﻤﺎﻧﮕﻮﻧﻪ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-٥٨‬ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺷﺪﻩ‪ ،‬ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﺯ ‪I0‬‬
‫ﺑﻪ ‪ I1‬ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪!#‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪= !MNG8(6K. 7L(3 ; &'()*%! &+(6 -.(/. <($J! :(2-58) !"#$%‬‬

‫‪i‬‬ ‫‪M S0‬‬ ‫‪i‬‬

‫‪P‬‬

‫‪i1‬‬
‫‪i0‬‬
‫‪LY 1‬‬ ‫‪I‬‬
‫‪LY 0‬‬
‫‪M‬‬ ‫‪I‬‬
‫‪AE‬‬ ‫‪I1 I 0‬‬
‫‪P‬‬

‫‪AE ! C‬‬ ‫‪I0‬‬ ‫‪G1‬‬ ‫‪NX‬‬

‫‪AE ! C‬‬ ‫‪I0‬‬ ‫‪G0‬‬ ‫‪NX‬‬

‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪Y0‬‬ ‫‪Y1‬‬

‫ﺑﺎ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﻃﺒﻖ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-٥٩‬ﺳﻄﺢ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻭ ﺍﺯ ‪ AE0‬ﺑﻪ ‪AE1‬‬
‫ﺗﻨﺰﻝ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ ﻭ ﺑﺪﻳﻦ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ‪ Y1‬ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪&A6 B61 " 7L(3 ; &'()*%! &+(6 -.(/. <($J! :(2-59) !"#$%‬‬

‫‪i‬‬ ‫‪M S0‬‬ ‫‪i‬‬

‫‪P‬‬

‫‪i1‬‬
‫‪i0‬‬
‫‪LY 1‬‬ ‫‪I‬‬
‫‪LY 0‬‬
‫‪M‬‬ ‫‪I‬‬
‫‪AE‬‬ ‫‪I1 I 0‬‬
‫‪P‬‬
‫‪AE0 ! C I 0 G1‬‬ ‫‪NX‬‬
‫‪AE1 ! C I 1 G1‬‬ ‫‪NX‬‬
‫‪AE 0 ! C I 0 G0‬‬ ‫‪NX‬‬

‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪Y0 Y1‬‬

‫‪!$‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪K/XV6 =(L-$/O (F ST3 "(UVO! <B6 " <#, W!K0! (2-8-2‬‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻗﺴﻤﺖ ﻓﺮﺽ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﻭ ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺪﻝ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ ﺑﺎ‬
‫ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﺛﺮﺍﺕ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﭘﻮﻟﻲ ﻭ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻭ‬
‫ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﺍﻭﻝ‪ ،‬ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺑﺎ ﺷﻮﻙﻫﺎﻱ ﻧﺎﺷﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﻣﻮﺍﺟﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﺩﻭﻡ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺑﺎ ﺷﻮﻙﻫﺎﻱ ﻧﺎﺷﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻑ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻣﻮﺍﺟﻪ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪-٦٠‬‬
‫‪ (٢‬ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺍﻭﻟﻴﻪ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺭﺍ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻭ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺩﺭ‬
‫‪ P0‬ﻭ ‪ YF‬ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫‪B/+#@ ; (L-$/O PR. G/+;! <"(H@ :(2-60) !"#$%‬‬

‫‪AE‬‬

‫‪AE0‬‬

‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪P‬‬
‫‪LRAS‬‬ ‫‪SRAS0‬‬

‫‪P0‬‬

‫‪AD0‬‬
‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪YF‬‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ ﻓﻮﻕ ‪ LRAS‬ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﺑﻠﻨﺪﻣﺪﺕ ﻭ ‪ SRAS0‬ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩﻣﺪﺕ ﻭ‬

‫‪ AD0‬ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﺯ ﺗﻘﺎﻃﻊ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲﻫﺎﻱ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩﻣﺪﺕ ﻭ ﺑﻠﻨﺪﻣﺪﺕ ﻭ‬
‫ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻭ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﻣﻲﺁﻳﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪:(>(?@ E! &Y(% Z#Y‬‬

‫ﺷﻮﻙﻫﺎﻱ ﻧﺎﺷﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﻣﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ ﻳﺎ ﻣﻨﻔﻲ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻫﺮ ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ‬
‫ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪!%‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪:-*[6 Z#Y‬‬
‫ﻓﺮﺽ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻨﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻻﻳﻠﻲ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﺑﺪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻣﺮ ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ‬
‫ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﻃﺒﻖ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-٦١‬ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪(>(?@ -*[6 Z#Y :(2-61) !"#$%‬‬

‫‪P‬‬ ‫‪AD1 LRAS‬‬

‫‪AD0‬‬
‫‪SRAS0‬‬

‫‪A‬‬
‫‪P0‬‬

‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪YF‬‬

‫ﺑﺎ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﻓﻮﻕ ﻫﻤﭽﻨﺎﻥ ﻛﻪ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-٦٢‬ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪ .‬ﺳﻄﺢ‬
‫ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﺍﺯ ‪ P0‬ﺑﻪ ‪ P1‬ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪B/+#@ ; (L-$/O 78!9:! ; (>(?@ Z#Y :(2-62) !"#$%‬‬

‫‪P‬‬ ‫‪AD1 LRAS‬‬

‫‪SRAS0‬‬
‫‪P1‬‬
‫‪C‬‬
‫‪P0‬‬
‫‪A‬‬

‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪YF‬‬

‫ﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻭ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ‪ ،‬ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺗﻲ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ ﻭ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻧﺮﺥ‬
‫ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ﺍﺯ ‪ I0‬ﺑﻪ ‪ I1‬ﺩﺭ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-٦٣‬ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻣﺮ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺭﺍ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﻭ‬
‫ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺑﺨﺸﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺍﻭﻟﻴﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺭﺍ‬

‫&!‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺧﻨﺜﻲ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﻗﺒﻼﹰ ﮔﻔﺘﻪ ﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﺛﺮ‬
‫ﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﺧﺮﻳﺪ‪ ،‬ﺍﺛﺮ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ﻭ ﺍﺛﺮ ﺗﺠﺎﺭﺕ ﺑﻴﻦﺍﻟﻤﻠﻞ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪= !MNG8(6K. 7L(3 ; \K]F ^K% C<#, =(>(?@ 78!9:! :(2-63) !"#$%‬‬

‫‪M S0‬‬
‫‪i‬‬ ‫‪P‬‬ ‫‪i‬‬

‫‪C‬‬
‫‪i1‬‬

‫‪i0‬‬ ‫‪A‬‬
‫‪L Y1‬‬
‫‪L Y0‬‬
‫‪M‬‬ ‫‪I1‬‬ ‫‪I0‬‬ ‫‪I‬‬
‫‪P‬‬

‫ﻃﺒﻖ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ ،(٢-٦٤‬ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺗﻮﺭﻣﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺍﺯ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺑﺮﺩﻥ ﺍﻳﻦ‬
‫ﺷﻜﺎﻑ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺑﺎ ﺩﻭ ﮔﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﻣﻮﺍﺟﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫‪&6 #@ _(`Y ; (>(?@ Z#Y :(2-64) !"#$%‬‬

‫‪LRAS‬‬
‫‪AD1‬‬
‫‪P‬‬
‫‪SRAS0‬‬

‫‪P1‬‬ ‫‪C‬‬
‫‪A‬‬
‫ﺷﻜﺎﻑ ﺗﻮﺭﻣﻲ‬

‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪YF‬‬ ‫‪Y1‬‬

‫ﺧﻮﺩﺗﻨﻈﻴﻤﻲ‪ :‬ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﺠﺎﻳﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺗﻮﺭﻣﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺳﻄﺢ‬ ‫‪(١‬‬
‫ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻓﺮﺍﺗﺮ ﺍﺯ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺍﺷﺘﻐﺎﻝ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ ،‬ﻛﺎﺭﮔﺮﺍﻥ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ‬
‫ﺩﺳﺘﻤﺰﺩ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺩﺳﺘﻤﺰﺩ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎﻱ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ‬
‫ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-٦٥‬ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺷﺪﻩ‪ ،‬ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﺔ ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩﻣﺪﺕ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﭼﭗ‪ ،‬ﺍﺯ‬
‫‪ SRAS0‬ﺑﻪ ‪ SRASZ‬ﻣﻨﺘﻘﻞ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫'!‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪&$/ab@"#c d8K' E! <"(H@ GF SB/. Bb81K: ; &6 #@ _(`Y :(2-65) !"#$%‬‬

‫‪LRAS‬‬
‫‪P‬‬
‫‪SRASZ‬‬
‫‪SRAS0‬‬

‫‪PZ‬‬ ‫‪Z‬‬

‫‪P1‬‬ ‫‪C‬‬
‫‪A‬‬ ‫‪AD1‬‬

‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪YF‬‬ ‫‪Y1‬‬

‫ﺑﺎ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ ﻣﺪﺕ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﭼﭗ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺍﺯ ‪ P1‬ﺑﻪ ‪ PZ‬ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ ﻭ‬
‫ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﺍﺯ ‪ AEP1‬ﺑﻪ ‪ AEPZ‬ﻃﺒﻖ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ)‪ (٢-٦٦‬ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪23 4 (56 7L(3 ; -$/O 78!9:! :(2-66) !"#$%‬‬

‫‪AE‬‬ ‫‪TE p1 ! C1‬‬ ‫‪I1‬‬ ‫‪G‬‬ ‫‪NX1‬‬

‫‪C‬‬
‫‪TE P 0 ! C 0‬‬ ‫‪I0‬‬ ‫‪G‬‬ ‫‪NX 0‬‬
‫‪TE PZ ! C Z‬‬ ‫‪IZ‬‬ ‫‪G‬‬ ‫‪NX Z‬‬
‫‪A=Z‬‬

‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪YF‬‬ ‫‪Y1‬‬

‫ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺗﻮﺭﻣﻲ ﻭ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻓﺮﺍﺗﺮ ﺍﺯ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ‬
‫ﺍﺷﺘﻐﺎﻝ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﺮ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﺍﺛﺮ ﻣﻲﮔﺬﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﺪﻳﻦ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ‬
‫ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ‪ ،‬ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺗﻲ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻃﺒﻖ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-٦٧‬ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﺑﺎﻻ ﻣﻨﺘﻘﻞ ﻭ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺯ‬
‫‪ I0‬ﺑﻪ ‪ IZ‬ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪.‬‬

‫(!‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪<#, &@T6(H6 =(>(?@ 78!9:! ; B61 " 78!9:! :(2-67) !"#$%‬‬

‫‪MS‬‬
‫‪i‬‬

‫‪iZ‬‬ ‫‪Z‬‬

‫‪L YFZ‬‬
‫‪i0‬‬ ‫‪A‬‬

‫‪L YF0‬‬
‫‪M‬‬

‫ﻫﻤﺎﻧﮕﻮﻧﻪ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-٦٨‬ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺷﺪﻩ‪ ،‬ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ‬
‫ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺖ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ‬
‫ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﭘﺎﻳﻴﻦ ﺳﻮﻕ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪e/8(, GF 23 =(>(?@ &bfb6 <(?V%! ; \K]F ^K% 78!9:! (2-68) !"#$%‬‬

‫‪P AD AD1 LRAS SRAS0‬‬

‫‪0‬‬

‫‪P0‬‬ ‫‪C‬‬
‫‪P1‬‬ ‫‪A‬‬

‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪YF Y1‬‬

‫‪ (٢‬ﺍﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﻭ ﭘﻮﻟﻲ‬

‫ﺑﺎ ﺍﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻳﻚ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻧﻘﺒﺎﺿﻲ؛ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕﻫﺎ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﺪﻭﻥ‬
‫ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‪ ،‬ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺍﻭﻟﻴﻪ ﻳﻌﻨﻲ ﻧﻘﻄﺔ ‪ A‬ﺑﺎﺯﮔﺸﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻳﻚ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﺍﻧﻘﺒﺎﺿﻲ ﭘﻮﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻋﺮﺿﺔ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺭﺍ ﻃﺒﻖ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-٦٩‬ﻛﺎﻫﺶ‬
‫ﺩﺍﺩ ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ‪ ،‬ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻭ‬
‫ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﮔﺮﺩﻳﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﭼﭗ ﻣﻨﺘﻘﻞ ﮔﺮﺩﻳﺪ‪.‬‬

‫)‪#‬‬
 ‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪&>(*?%! &+#, -/.(/. h(5@! ; <#, !E(F :(2-69) !"#$%‬‬

‫‪M S1‬‬ ‫‪M S0‬‬

‫‪P‬‬ ‫‪P‬‬

‫‪i‬‬
‫‪Z‬‬
‫‪iZ‬‬

‫‪A‬‬
‫‪i0‬‬
‫‪L YF‬‬
‫‪M‬‬
‫‪P‬‬

‫‪:&gb6 Z#Y‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﺷﻮﻙ ﻣﻨﻔﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ‪ ،‬ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﺑﻨﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻻﻳﻠﻲ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ ﻭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ‬
‫ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﭘﺎﻳﻴﻦ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-٧٠‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﻭﺿﻌﻴﺖ ﺭﺍ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ‬
‫ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪.‬‬
‫‪(>(?@ &gb6 Z#Y :(2-70) !"#$%‬‬

‫‪SRAS0‬‬
‫‪P AD AD0 LRAS‬‬
‫‪1‬‬

‫‪P0‬‬ ‫‪A‬‬

‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪YF‬‬

‫ﺑﺎ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﭼﭗ ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺭﻛﻮﺩﻱ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺁﻥ ﺩﻗﻴﻘﺎﹰ ﻋﻜﺲ ﻣﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﻣﻄﺮﺡ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺩﺭ ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﺷﻮﻙ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺷﻮﻙ ﻧﺎﺷﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ‪:‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻗﺴﻤﺖ ﻓﺮﺽ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺑﺎ ﺷﻮﻙ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻣﻮﺍﺟﻪ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﻮﻙ ﻧﺎﺷﻲ‬
‫ﺍﺯ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎﻱ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﺑﻬﺒﻮﺩ ﺗﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﮊﻱ ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﺎ ﺍﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻳﻦ‬

‫‪#‬‬
 ‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﺷﻮﻙ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻫﻤﺎﻧﮕﻮﻧﻪ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-٧١‬ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺷﺪﻩ‪ ،‬ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ‬
‫ﺭﺍﺳﺖ ﻣﻨﺘﻘﻞ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪G>KJ -*[6 Z#Y :(2-71) !"#$%‬‬

‫‪P‬‬
‫‪LRAS‬‬

‫‪SRAS0‬‬
‫‪AD0‬‬
‫‪SRAS1‬‬

‫‪P0‬‬ ‫‪A‬‬

‫‪C‬‬

‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪YF‬‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ‪ ،‬ﻧﻘﻄﺔ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺍﺯ ‪ A‬ﺑﻪ ‪ C‬ﻃﺒﻖ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-٧٢‬ﻣﻨﺘﻘﻞ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ‬
‫ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩﻣﺪﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻭ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ‪ P1‬ﻭ ‪ Y1‬ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻣﻲﮔﺮﺩﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪B/+#@ 78!9:! ; (L-$/O 7L(3 iG>KJ -*[6 Z#Y :(2-72) !"#$%‬‬

‫‪P‬‬
‫‪LRAS‬‬

‫‪AD0‬‬
‫‪SRAS1‬‬
‫‪A‬‬

‫‪P1‬‬ ‫‪C‬‬

‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪YF‬‬ ‫‪Y1‬‬

‫ﺑﺎ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺑﻪ ﻭﺍﺳﻄﺔ ﺍﺛﺮ ﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﺧﺮﻳﺪ‪ ،‬ﺍﺛﺮ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ﻭ ﺍﺛﺮ ﺗﺠﺎﺭﺕ ﺑﻴﻦﺍﻟﻤﻠﻞ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﺍﺯ‬
‫‪ AEP0‬ﺑﻪ ‪ AEP1‬ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-٧٣‬ﺗﺮﺳﻴﻢ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫"‪#‬‬
 ‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪26(3 4 (56 78!9:! ; -$/O 7L(3 :(2-73) !"#$%‬‬

‫‪C‬‬ ‫‪AE P1 ! C1‬‬ ‫‪I1‬‬ ‫‪G‬‬ ‫‪NX 1‬‬

‫‪AE‬‬
‫‪AEP 0 ! C‬‬ ‫‪I‬‬ ‫‪G‬‬ ‫‪NX‬‬
‫‪A‬‬ ‫‪P1 " P0‬‬

‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪Y0‬‬

‫‪P‬‬
‫‪AD0‬‬ ‫‪SRAS0‬‬
‫‪A‬‬ ‫‪SRAS1‬‬
‫‪C‬‬

‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪Y0‬‬ ‫‪Y1‬‬

‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﻮﻙ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ‪ ،‬ﺍﺯ ﻳﻚ ﺳﻮ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﻠﻲ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ‬
‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺗﻲ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻮﻱ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺖ ﺍﺛﺮﺍﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺑﺮ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻫﻤﭽﻨﺎﻧﻜﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-٧٤‬ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﺷﺪﻩ‪ ،‬ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ‬
‫ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ‪ i0‬ﺑﻪ ‪ i1‬ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪<#, =(>(?@ 78!9:! ; -$/O 7L(3 iB61 " 78!9:! :(2-74) !"#$%‬‬

‫‪Ms‬‬
‫‪i‬‬

‫‪i0‬‬ ‫‪A‬‬

‫‪i1‬‬
‫‪C‬‬ ‫‪LY0‬‬
‫‪LY1,.P1‬‬

‫‪M‬‬

‫ﺑﺎ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-٧٥‬ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪ ،‬ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﺯ ‪ I 0‬ﺑﻪ ‪ I 1‬ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ‬
‫ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪.‬‬

‫!‪#‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪= !MNG8(6K. 78!9:! ; \K]F ^K% 7L(3 :(2-75) !"!#$%‬‬

‫‪M SO‬‬
‫‪i‬‬ ‫‪P‬‬ ‫‪i‬‬
‫‪A‬‬
‫‪i0‬‬
‫‪C‬‬
‫‪i1‬‬ ‫‪LY0‬‬ ‫‪I‬‬
‫‪LY1.P1‬‬
‫‪I‬‬
‫‪M‬‬ ‫‪I0 I1‬‬
‫‪P‬‬

‫ﺗﻤﺎﻣﻲ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺛﺮﺍﺕ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-٧٦‬ﺗﺮﺳﻴﻢ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺷﻜﺎﻑ ﺗﻮﺭﻣﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪&6 #@ _(`Y ; G>KJ -*[6 Z#Y :(2-76) !"#$%‬‬

‫‪P‬‬
‫‪LRAS‬‬

‫‪AD0‬‬
‫‪Inflationary Gap‬‬

‫‪A‬‬
‫‪P0‬‬ ‫‪SRAS1‬‬

‫‪C‬‬

‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪YF‬‬ ‫‪Y1‬‬

‫ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻣﺮﺗﻔﻊ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﻥ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﻜﺎﻑ‪ ،‬ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺩﻭ ﮔﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﺩﺭ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺭﻭ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪:‬‬

‫ﺧﻮﺩﺗﻨﻈﻴﻤﻲ‪ :‬ﻫﻤﺎﻧﮕﻮﻧﻪ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-٧٧‬ﺗﺮﺳﻴﻢ ﺷﺪﻩ‪ ،‬ﺷﻜﺎﻑ ﺗﻮﺭﻣﻲ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫‪(١‬‬
‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺁﻥ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﻓﻌﻠﻲ ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺮ ﺍﺯ ﻇﺮﻓﻴﺖ ﺍﺷﺘﻐﺎﻝ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﺯ‬
‫ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﺑﻬﺮﻩﺑﺮﺩﺍﺭﻱ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻣﺮ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﺗﺎ ﻛﺎﺭﮔﺮﺍﻥ ﺩﺳﺘﻤﺰﺩﻫﺎﻱ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺮﻱ ﺭﺍ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﺒﻪ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻨﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪##‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪&$/ab@ "#c d8K' E! <"(H@ GF SB/. Bb81K: &6 #@ _(`Y (2-77) !"#$%‬‬

‫‪P‬‬
‫‪LRAS‬‬

‫‪AD0‬‬ ‫‪SRAS0‬‬

‫‪A‬‬ ‫‪SRAS1‬‬

‫‪P1‬‬ ‫‪C‬‬

‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪YF‬‬ ‫‪Y1‬‬

‫ﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺩﺳﺘﻤﺰﺩﻫﺎ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﺔ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﻭ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﺔ ﻛﻞ ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ‬
‫ﻣﺪﺕ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﭼﭗ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻘﻄﺔ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺍﻭﻟﻴﺔ ‪ A‬ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﺎ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﻫﻤﭽﻨﺎﻧﻜﻪ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-٧٨‬ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪ ،‬ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﺑﺎﻻ‬
‫ﺍﺯ ‪ AEPO‬ﺑﻪ ‪ AEP1‬ﻣﻨﺘﻘﻞ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪23 4 (56 78!9:! ; (L-$/O 7L(3 :(2-78) !"#$%‬‬

‫‪AE‬‬ ‫‪C‬‬
‫‪AE PI ! C1‬‬ ‫‪I1 G‬‬ ‫‪NX 1‬‬

‫‪AEP 0 ! C0‬‬ ‫‪I0‬‬ ‫‪G‬‬ ‫‪NX 0‬‬

‫‪A‬‬ ‫‪P1 " P0‬‬

‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪YF‬‬ ‫‪Y1‬‬

‫ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺣﺮﻛﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﻧﻘﻄﺔ ‪ ،A‬ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻮﻗﻌﻴﺖ ﺍﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺧﻮﺩ ﺑﺮﻣﻲﮔﺮﺩﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‪ ،‬ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻭ ﻋﺮﺿﺔ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﻱ ﻧﻤﻲﻛﻨﺪ ﻭ‬
‫ﻫﻴﭻ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﻱ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺍﺗﻔﺎﻕ ﻧﺨﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺍﻓﺘﺎﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ :‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﭘﻮﻟﻲ ﻭ‬ ‫‪(٢‬‬
‫ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻧﻘﺒﺎﺿﻲ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻮﻱ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺑﻠﻨﺪﻣﺪﺕ ﺭﻫﻨﻤﻮﻥ ﺳﺎﺯﺩ‪ .‬ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-٧٩‬ﺍﻳﻦ‬
‫ﻭﺿﻌﻴﺖ ﺭﺍ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪#$‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪<"(H@ GF SB/. =!KF ="(UVO! -.(/. <($J! :(2-79) !"#$%‬‬

‫‪P‬‬ ‫‪LRAS‬‬
‫‪AD0‬‬

‫‪AD1‬‬
‫‪SRAS1‬‬

‫‪P1‬‬ ‫‪C‬‬

‫‪PZ‬‬
‫‪Z‬‬

‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪YF‬‬ ‫‪Y1‬‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ‪ ،‬ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻳﻚ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻧﻘﺒﺎﺿﻲ )ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﻳﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ‬
‫ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕﻫﺎ( ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻘﻄﺔ ‪ Z‬ﺩﺳﺖ ﻳﺎﺑﺪ ﺩﺭﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﮔﺮﭼﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺍﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺧﻮﺩ‬
‫ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﮔﻴﺮﺩ ﺍﻣﺎ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪ .‬ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-٨٠‬ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺩﺭ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻭ ﺍﺛﺮﺍﺕ ﺁﻥ‬
‫ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪23 4 (56 KF S1 W!K0! ; -$/O " K//X@ (2-80) !"#$%‬‬

‫‪*AE‬‬ ‫‪C‬‬ ‫‪AE P1 ! C1‬‬ ‫‪I1‬‬ ‫‪G‬‬ ‫‪NX 1‬‬

‫‪AE PZ ! C Z‬‬ ‫‪IZ‬‬ ‫‪GZ‬‬ ‫‪#C‬‬ ‫‪NX Z‬‬

‫‪AE P 0 ! C 0‬‬ ‫‪I0‬‬ ‫‪G‬‬ ‫‪NX 0‬‬
‫‪A=Z‬‬
‫‪PZ " P1 " P0‬‬

‫‪Y‬‬
‫‪YF‬‬ ‫‪Y1‬‬

‫ﺑﺮ ﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ‪ ،‬ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺍﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ‪ AEP0‬ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﺎ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ‬
‫ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﺔ ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩﻣﺪﺕ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﺭﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ‪ ،‬ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﺑﺎﻻ ﻭ‬
‫ﺑﻪ ﺳﻄﺢ ‪ AEP1‬ﻣﻨﺘﻘﻞ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺗﺨﺎﺫ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻧﻘﺒﺎﺿﻲ ﻭ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‪،‬‬
‫ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﭘﺎﻳﻴﻦ ‪ AEPZ‬ﻣﻨﺘﻘﻞ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻘﻄﺔ ‪ Z‬ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﺩﺳﺖ ﻣﻲﺁﻳﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﺒﺘﻪ ﺑﺎ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻫﻤﭽﻨﺎﻧﻜﻪ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-٨١‬ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪ ،‬ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ‬
‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺗﻲ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﻭ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺍﺯ ‪ LYF0‬ﺑﻪ ‪LYFZ‬‬

‫‪#%‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﺎ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻄﺢ ‪ iZ‬ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ ﻭ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺗﺸﺪﻳﺪ‬
‫ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﻭ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪<#, &@T6(H6 =(>(?@ 7L(3 ; B/+#@ 7L(3 :(2-81) !"#$%‬‬

‫‪i‬‬
‫‪MS‬‬
‫‪P‬‬
‫‪i0‬‬ ‫‪A‬‬

‫‪iZ‬‬ ‫‪LYF 0‬‬

‫‪Z‬‬ ‫‪LYF Z‬‬
‫‪M‬‬
‫‪P‬‬

‫ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺗﺨﺎﺫ ﻳﻚ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﭘﻮﻟﻲ ﺍﻧﻘﺒﺎﺿﻲ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﻪ ﻫﺪﻑ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺩﺳﺖ‬
‫ﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪ .‬ﻫﻤﭽﻨﺎﻧﻜﻪ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-٨٢‬ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎ ﺍﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻳﻚ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﭘﻮﻟﻲ ﺍﻧﻘﺒﺎﺿﻲ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺍﺯ ‪ A‬ﺑﻪ ‪ Z‬ﻣﻨﺘﻘﻞ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ﺍﺯ ‪ i0‬ﺑﻪ ‪ iZ‬ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻣﺮ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺗﻨﺰﻝ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﺳﻤﺖ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺑﻠﻨﺪﻣﺪﺕ ‪ Z‬ﺳﻮﻕ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪.‬‬
‫‪&>(*?%! &+#, -.(/. h(5@! :(2-82) !"#$%‬‬

‫‪i M S1‬‬ ‫‪M S0‬‬

‫‪P‬‬ ‫‪P‬‬

‫‪iZ‬‬ ‫‪Z‬‬
‫‪i0‬‬ ‫‪A‬‬

‫‪L YF0 L YFZ‬‬

‫‪M‬‬
‫‪P‬‬

‫ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺷﻮﻙ ﻣﻨﻔﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (٢-٨٣‬ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ‬
‫ﺷﺪﻩ‪ ،‬ﻓﺮﺁﻳﻨﺪ ﺗﻌﺪﻳﻞ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﻭ ﺁﺛﺎﺭ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﭘﻮﻟﻲ ﻭ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺭﺍ ﺩﻗﻴﻘﺎﹰ ﻫﻤﺎﻧﻨﺪ‬
‫ﺑﺤﺚﻫﺎﻱ ﻗﺒﻠﻲ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺩ‪.‬‬

‫&‪#‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ (١) ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ‬

G>KJ &gb6 Z#Y :(2-83) !"#$%

P
LRAS
SRAS1

AD0 SRAS0

P0 A

Y
YF

#'
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ )‪(١‬‬

‫‪2jjk(jj)6‬‬
‫ﻓﺮﺽ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ ﻛﻪ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺫﺧﻴﺮﻩ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﻲ ‪ %٢٠‬ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﺎ ﻓﺮﺽ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ‬ ‫‪-١٣‬‬
‫ﺑﺎﺯ ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺧﺮﻳﺪ ‪ ١٠٠,٠٠٠‬ﺭﻳﺎﻝ ﺍﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﻗﺮﺿﻪ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﺑﺮ‬
‫ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺭﺍ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﻫﺮ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﭘﻮﻝ ﭼﻘﺪﺭ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ؟‬

‫ﺑﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﭘﻮﻝ ﻭ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ‪ ،‬ﺍﺛﺮ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻟﻲ‬ ‫‪-١٤‬‬
‫ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‪ ،‬ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺢ ﻭ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﻫﻴﺪ‪) .‬ﻓﺮﺽ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ(‬

‫ﺑﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻞ ﻭ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ )‪ (AD/AS‬ﻭ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﭘﻮﻝ‪ ،‬ﺍﺛﺮ‬ ‫‪-١٥‬‬
‫ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺩﺭ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‪ ،‬ﺳﻄﺢ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻭ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ﺩﺭ ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ ﻣﺪﺕ‬
‫ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺢ ﺩﻫﻴﺪ؟‬

‫ﺑﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻞ ﻭ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ )‪ (AD/AS‬ﻭ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﻞ ﻭ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ‬ ‫‪-١٦‬‬

‫ﭘﻮﻝ‪ ،‬ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﺛﺮ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﻳﻜﺠﺎ ﻫﻨﮕﺎﻣﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ‬
‫ﺍﺷﺘﻐﺎﻝ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺢ ﻭ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﻫﻴﺪ؟ ﺍﺛﺮﺍﺕ ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ ﻣﺪﺕ ﻭ ﺑﻠﻨﺪ ﻣﺪﺕ ﺍﻳﻦ‬
‫ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻧﻘﺒﺎﺿﻲ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ )‪ ،(Y‬ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ )‪ ،(i‬ﻭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ )‪ (P‬ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﻃﻮﺭ ﻣﺠﺰﺍ ﺗﺸﺮﻳﺢ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ؟‬

‫ﺍﺛﺮﺍﺕ ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ ﻣﺪﺕ ﻭ ﺑﻠﻨﺪ ﻣﺪﺕ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺩﻭﻟﺘﻲ )‪ (G‬ﻭ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺩﺭ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ‬ ‫‪-١٧‬‬
‫ﭘﻮﻝ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‪ ،‬ﺳﻄﺢ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻭ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻣﻘﺎﻳﺴﻪ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﻫﻴﺪ؟ )ﺍﺯ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲﻫﺎﻱ‬
‫ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻞ ﻭ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ )‪ (AD/AS‬ﻭ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ‬
‫ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻴﺪ(‪.‬‬

‫ﺻﺤﺖ ﻭ ﺳﻘﻢ ﺟﻤﻠﻪ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺭﺍ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺍﺭﺯﻳﺎﺑﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﻫﻴﺪ‪:‬‬ ‫‪-١٨‬‬

‫»ﻫﻨﮕﺎﻣﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﭘﻮﻝ ﺩﭼﺎﺭ ﺩﺍﻡ ﻧﻘﺪﻳﻨﮕﻲ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﭘﻮﻟﻲ ﺑﻲﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻛﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻓﻘﻲ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ«‬

‫(‪#‬‬