Pure Appl. Geophys.
173 (2016), 1859–1879
Ó 2015 Springer International Publishing
DOI 10.1007/s00024-015-1216-5
Probabilistic Analysis of Earthquake-Led Water Contamination: A Case of Sichuan, China
YAN YANG,1 LIN LI,1 F. BENJAMIN ZHAN,1,2 and YANHUA ZHUANG3
Abstract—The objective of this paper is to evaluate seismic-led
point source and non-point source water pollution, under the seis-
mic hazard of 10 % probability of exceedance in 50 years, and with
the minimum value of the water quality standard in Sichuan, China.
The soil conservation service curve number method of calculating
the runoff depth in the single rainfall event combined with the
seismic damage index were applied to estimate the potential degree
of non-point source water pollution. To estimate the potential
impact of point source water pollution, a comprehensive water
pollution evaluation framework is constructed using a combination
of Water Quality Index and Seismic Damage Index methods. The
four key findings of this paper are: (1) The water catchment that has
the highest factory concentration does not have the highest risk of
non-point source water contamination induced by the outbreak of
potential earthquake. (2) The water catchment that has the highest
numbers of cumulative water pollutants types are typically located
in the south western parts of Sichuan where the main river basins in
the regions flow through. (3) The most common pollutants in
sample factories studied is COD and NH3-N which are found in all
catchments. The least common pollutant is pathogen—found pre-
sent in W1 catchment which has the best rating in the water quality
index. (4) Using water quality index as a standardization parameter,
parallel comparisons is made among the 16 water catchments. Only
catchment W1 reaches level II water quality status which has the
rating of moderately polluted in events of earthquake induced water
contamination. All other areas suffer from severe water contami-
nation with multiple pollution sources. The results from the data
model are significant to urban planning commissions and busi-
nesses to strategically choose their factory locations in order to
minimize potential hazardous impact during the outbreak of
earthquake.
Key words: Earthquake, point-source, non-point source,
water pollution, Sichuan.
1
School of Resource and Environmental Science, Wuhan
University, Wuhan 430079, People’s Republic of China. E-mail:
yy5290@whu.edu.cn
2 2004; WONG et al. 2005; SENGUL et al. 2010; WANG
Department of Geography, Texas Center for Geographic
Information Science, Texas State University-San Marcos, San
Marcos, TX 78666, USA.
3
Key Laboratory of Environment and Disaster Monitor-
ing and Evaluation, Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics, Chi-
nese Academy of Sciences, 340 Xudong Road, Wuhan 430077,
People’s Republic of China.
Pure and Applied Geophysics
1. Introduction
Water pollution is a crisis for public health and
ecological balance, especially in emergency events
such as earthquake. Seismic-led industrial factory
collapses, often lead to the spillage of toxic sub-
stances, such as Hg, Cu, Pb and organic pollutants
like sulfide, into river streams which has catastrophic
impacts on human health and safety (SANTELLA and
STEINBERg 2011; MENG et al. 2015). Under normal
circumstances, the way industrial spillage causes
water contamination is similar to other common
water pollution substance: it pollutes the river
streams by point-source pollution. If the factories are
close to the river, it is considered as the point source
water pollution since most pollutants are flushed into
the rivers like pipe drains. However, if the factories
are some distance away from the river basins, then
the pollution becomes non-point source as discharged
water spills out and floods all surface areas between
the factory sites to the river basins during the out-
break of earthquakes. Understanding how water
contamination spreads in events of earthquake and
more importantly, the magnitude and the probability
of this type of emergency events will occur in the
future can add meaningful insights to how to con-
struct precautionary measures that can be effectively
adopted for prevention purposes (LINDELL and PERRY
1997; HONG and GODA 2011; WANG et al. 2013;
ULLAH et al. 2015).
The mainstream research (SHOWALTEr and MEY-
ERS 1994; SELIGSON et al. 1996; PETERSEN et al.
et al. 2010; HILL et al. 2011; ABDOLLAHZADEH et al.
2014; GHEORGHIU 2014; KIRBY 2015) in the disci-
pline of earthquake-initiated-hazardous material-
releases (EIHRs) is predominately focused on
studying the post-disaster impacts to create risk
1860 Y. Yang et al. Pure Appl. Geophys.

evaluation schemes. STEINBERG et al. (2004) exam- 2. Methods and Data

ined the earthquake-caused industrial spill in order
to evaluate mitigation mechanism to response to 2.1. Study Area
seismic disasters in Turkey. Other scholars offered
In this thesis, we focus our study area on Sichuan
more detailed studies to evaluate seismic vulnera-
province, central-western China (Fig. 1). Sichuan has
bility models for chemical facilities. EGUCHI and
a total area of 48,605,200 ha with a population of
GHOSH (2008) studied on most common toxic
81,070,000, giving a population density of 1.67 head
components (chlorine and ammonia) release during
per ha (in end of 2013) (XIONG 2014a). The west parts
an earthquake to understand the impact of a strong
of Sichuan consist of high mountains with an average
(M7.8) earthquake on hazardous materials handling
attitude of 2000 m above sea level. The eastern parts
facilities in LA County. In the views of water
are fertile plain used for farming. The Rain fall in
contamination, vast research literature has gone into
Sichuan ranges from 900 to 1200 mm each year—
causality analysis of contaminations to drinking
one of the top three highest rainfall regions in China
water and the outbreak of epidemic disease in
(XIONG 2014b).
emerging events such as earthquake and Tsunami.
Sichuan is an earthquake active region. Since
ZHAO (2008) studied on the disinfection of con-
1950, there are more than 500 earthquakes over 4.0
struction waste utilization from the post-
magnitude (SUN 2010). Of these, there are 31 records
earthquakes of 5.12 Sichuan earthquake. KARMAKAR
of earthquakes are over the magnitude of 6.0. This
et al. (2008) studied the outbreak of rotavirus
information is significant to industries such as
gastroenteritis disease in Kashmir after an earth-
national defense, heavy metal, chemicals plants that
quake in 2005 and concluded that earthquake was
for strategic reasons have chosen to construct their
the prime cause of waterborne contamination of the
production factories in the region. The risks of mega-
rotavirus gastroenteritis disease. More recent studies
magnitude earthquakes outbreak are extremely dis-
attempt to link earthquake hazard analysis to urban
ruptive to the real estate factory assets, and also gives
utility system damages that are the inevitable con-
rise to environmental pollution of various sources. In
sequence seismic-caused disaster. MENONI (2013)
this paper, 133 sample factories, under nationally
gives a scenario-based framework model to esti-
monitored-enterprise-priority list, are studied to esti-
mate potential vulnerability and probabilistic
mate the impact of the potential seismic-led water
damages of lifeline infrastructures (electricity,
pollution.
water, energy and communication, etc.) during
earthquake.
However, little research effort has been devoted 2.2. Data Collection
to evaluate the potential seismic-led water pollution
In this study, we estimate the seismic-led water
based on impact of the seismic damage, including
pollution in Sichuan province with six major types of
seismic hazard and building damage ratios.
data, including basic geographic data (BGD) DEM
Therefore, the aim of this paper is to evaluate the
(digital elevation model) in 30 m resolution from
seismic-led water pollution, under the seismic
geospatial data cloud (http://www.gscloud.cn/). This
hazard of 10 % probability of exceedance in
is applied to classify various water catchments in
50 years with the minimum value of the water
Sichuan province, and the land-use and river shape-
quality standard in Sichuan, China. The rest of the
files are respectively used to calculate the soil con-
paper will proceed as follows. We proceed by
servation service (SCS) curve number (CN) in order
detailing study areas and research methodologies.
to evaluate the water comprehensive quality in the
We then present the data model used to analyze the
rivers under the risk of earthquake-led water con-
data, drawing key characteristics of the results
tamination. These BGDs are shown in Fig. 2.
obtained.
Vol. 173, (2016) Probabilistic Analysis of Earthquake-Led Water Contamination: A Case of Sichuan, China
Figure 1
Location of Sichuan province in mainland China
The tabulated runoff data are collected from the
daily dataset between 1951 and 2007 in the stations
of China ground climatic information of Met. Data
service (http://www.escience.gov.cn/metdata/page/
index.html). 103 rainfall monitoring stations are
included. 61 stations are within the Sichuan district
(including Chongqing city). The remaining 42 sta-
tions are purposefully chosen to be the ones located
around the province space. The reason for this is to
improve the accuracy of the interpolation of the
results. The data set is used to compute the concen-
tration of each pollutant for non-point source water
pollution in potentially hazardous water catchments.
The seismic hazard map of peak ground acceler-
ation (PGA) (the ‘‘Zoning Map of Seismic PAG in
China’’ (GB 18306-2001)) represents for 10 % prob-
ability of exceedance in 50 years in China in standard
gravity (g).
1861
The sampled 133 factories are related to the water
pollution in Sichuan and are studied in this paper. The
factory list is downloaded from the Data Center of
Ministry of Environmental Protection of the People’s
Republic of China (http://datacenter.mep.gov.cn/),
including the types of pollutants contained in each of
those factories. These pollutants can be divided into
five major types:
1. Non-organically toxic substance, including metal-
lic toxic substance, such as Ag, Be, Cd, Cr, Cr6,
Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, Zn and non-metallic toxic
substance, such as As, Se, cyanide and fluoride;
2. Eutrophic pollutant, such as TP, TN and NH3-N;
3. Oil, such as crude oil and animal and
vegetable oil;
4. Organically toxic substance, such as COD, BOD5,
sulfide, aniline and volatile phenols, and,
1862 Y. Yang et al. Pure Appl. Geophys.

Figure 2
Maps of collected data
Vol. 173, (2016) Probabilistic Analysis of Earthquake-Led Water Contamination: A Case of Sichuan, China 1863

5. Pathogen: count of coliform group. Each of these
pollutants can bring in heavy damage to human
health.
The minimum control level in the discharge
standards of water pollutants for each type of industry
are applied to evaluate the degree of damage when
the water pollutant concentration in the runoff and
rivers are out of control due to seismic-led industrial
building collapses. The standards are downloaded
from the water quality standard from the China
Environmental Standard (http://www.es.org.cn/cn/
index.html), 22 standards are included in this study
(Table 1).
2.3. The Model: Seismic-Led Water Comprehensive-
Quantifying Assessment (SWCQA)
In this section, we present the seismic-led water
comprehensive-quantifying assessment (SWCQA)
framework to quantitatively analyze the data we
collected. The mechanic construction of the model
can be broken down into four parts: we begin by
constructing seismic hazard damage index
SD(j) which takes into the account of damages that
are fundamentally attributed to earthquake activities.
We then estimate the pollution loads caused by
factory collapse by constructing pollution loads Lm.
Using these two parts we can then estimate the non-
point source Pnp(j)(m)(k) and point source
WQI(x) water pollutions, respectively.
2.3.1 Probabilistic Seismic Damage (SD)
Key logical assumptions: we model the computation
of seismic damage (SD) of each location using two
indexed variables: the seismic hazard index (PGA0 )
and the damage ratio (DR) averaged probability of
each damage state. PGA represents the intensity of
the earthquake and DR considers the physical build-
ing structure vulnerability, i.e. its ability to hold up in
events of earthquake. It adds further realness to the
modeling process, i.e. a wooden structure will take

Table 1
List of the water quality standards from the China Environmental Standard

No. Name of the water quality standard Standard code

1 Discharge standard of water pollutants for pharmaceutical industry Chinese traditional medicine category GB 21906—2008
2 Discharge standard of water pollutants from ordnance industry Initiating explosive material and relative GB 14470.2—2002
composition
3 Discharge standard of water pollutants for pulp and paper industry GB 3544—2008
4 Discharge standard of water pollutants for pharmaceutical industry Chemical synthesis products category GB 21904—2008
5 Discharge standard of water pollutants for fermentation alcohol and distilled spirits industry GB 21523—2008
6 Discharge standard of water pollutants for ammonia industry GB 13458—2013
7 Effluent standard of water pollutants for ammunition loading industry GB 14470.3—2011
8 Discharge standard of water pollutants for starch industry GB 25461—2010
9 Emission standard of pollutants for coking chemical industry GB 16171—2012
10 Discharge standard of water pollutants for caustic alkali and polyvinyl chloride industry GB 15581—95
11 Emission standard for pollutants from Coal Industry GB 20426—2006
12 Emission standard of pollutants for sulfuric acid industry GB 26132—2010
13 Discharge standard of water pollutants for phosphate fertilizer industry GB 15580—2011
14 Emission standards of pollutants for rare earths industry GB 26451—2011
15 Discharge standards of water pollutants for dyeing and finishing of textile industry GB 4287—2012
16 Discharge standard of water pollutants for meat packing industry GB 13457—92
17 Discharge standard of water pollutants for iron and steel industry GB 13456—2012
18 Emission standard of pollutants for ferroalloy smelt industry GB 28666—2012
19 Emission standard of pollutants for mining and mineral processing industry GB 28661—2012
20 Emission standard of pollutants for copper, nickel, cobalt industry GB 25467—2010
21 Emission standard of pollutants for magnesium and titanium industry GB 25468—2010
22 Discharge standard of water pollutants for bast and leaf fibres textile industry GB 28938—2012
1864 Y. Yang et al.
more % damage than metallic structure during an
earthquake.
We use conditional probability to model the
calculation of SD which in this case is the product
of two independent variables: PGA0 and DR. It is
significant to apply SD as an index for the calculation
of the distribution of water pollution intensity in the
case of emergent water pollution.
For each factory location, all damage states are
considered since even a ‘‘well-remain’’ state value of
DR in a seismic hazard site (high PGA value) would
still give a meaningful SD value. A quick limit test—
taking the lower extreme situation, assuming an
industry building with DR = 0.02 under a risk of 9
magnitude earthquake (PGA = 0.4), gives a SD of
0.008, which is only 5.7 times less than the upper
limit extreme where DR = 0.905 and PGA = 0.05
giving a SD value of 0.045. The upper limit of single
factor DR 0.905 is 45 times greater than the lower
limit of 0.02. Similarly the single factor PGA has a
times 8 difference between its two extreme values 0.4
and 0.05. This means a 9 magnitude earthquake can
also increase the risk of collapse a ‘‘well-remain’’
state building while a ‘‘Destroyed’’ state building can
collapse even in a small magnitude earthquake.
Below shows the computation for PGA0 and DR:
1. Converting PGA values to PGA0 and we define
this to be the seismic-hazard index,
X
i
PGA0 ¼ PGAi = PGAi
1 errors between most entries of these two groups
where i is the ith pixel, and PGAi represents the
PGA value on the ith pixel.
2. Calculating DRavg(j), which is averaged percent-
age in each column of Table 2
The damage ratio in five different damage states
Damage Damage states (%)
Well-remained
Industrial building 0–4
Pure Appl. Geophys.
X
k
DRavg ð jÞ ¼ DRk ðjÞ=k ð2Þ
1
where k is the kth damage state percentage in the
jth damage state (columns 2–6) of Table 2;
3. Calculating the probable seismic damage index
SD(j) in the jth damage state,
SDð jÞ ¼ PGA0  DRavg ð jÞ ð3Þ
2.3.2 Probabilistic Runoff Depth (Q) Based on SCS-
CN Method
4. Selecting the soil conservation service (SCS)
curve number (CN) based on the soil types in
Sichuan province. The CN is the parameter
comprehensively representing the rainfall-runoff
relationship based on the soil property, the veg-
etation coverage and the soil moisture.
The SCS divides the soil type into four hydrolog-
ical soil groups (HSGs) (Table 3): A (high
infiltration rates), B (moderate infiltration rates),
C (slow infiltration), D (very slow infiltration).
And the interval of each value is 0–100, and
normally using the section of 30–100.
The runoff value of Penglai Zhen, Sichuan in
ZHENG (2008), were compared with the runoff
(Q) calculated based on the SCS-CN in consider-
ation of CN value as C type. The results are
ð1Þ showed in Table 5. Table 5 indicates that the
are less than 10 % expect that in May (but still
less than 20 %), which means that of the SCS-CN
method is reliable to applied in the study area.
Similar to ZHENG (2008), the B type (Table 3) will
be used as the soil CN in Sichuan province based
on its soil properties and land use types in the
Table 2
Slight Moderate Extensive Destroyed
5–16 17–45 46–80 81–100
Vol. 173, (2016) Probabilistic Analysis of Earthquake-Led Water Contamination: A Case of Sichuan, China 1865

Table 3
a
The CN for four hydrologic soil groups in different types of land use

Land use A B C D

Dry land 61 72 79 82
Paddy field 55 69 78 83
Woods 36 60 73 79
Grass 45 65 75 80
Residential districts 62 75 83 87
Water 98 98 98 98
Wasteland 77 86 91 94a
a
CN value (Table 3) of building area is same as that of residential districts, and the CN value of garden plot is same as that of woods

antecedent moisture condition (AMC) II (average year maximum probability in each rain station,
moisture condition). After that, the CN in each
pixel will be rectified due to its AMC. !
X X X
5. Rectifying CN based on the antecedent moisture Wh = Maxð ðPt in CNh Þ= ðPt Þ ð7Þ
condition (AMC), t¼1 t¼1 t¼1

where Pt is the rainfall in the tth rain station.

X
5 7. Calculating the maximum CN with Wh, respec-
AMC ¼ Pl ð4Þ tively, in plant dormant period and plant growing
l¼1
period,
where Pl is the accumulative rainfall in past lth
X
3
day, l B 5.when CN is under state of AMC I, CN ¼ ðWh  CNh Þ ð8Þ
h¼1
4:2  CN2
CN1 ¼ ð5Þ
10  0:058  CN2 8 Calculating the probable runoff depth Q (mm) in a
single rainfall event,
when CN is under state of AMC III,
23  CN2 (
CN3 ¼ ð6Þ 2
10 þ 0:13  CN2 Q ¼ ððP0:2SÞ
Pþ0:8SÞ P [ 0:2S ð9Þ
Q ¼ 0P  0:2S
where CN1, CN2 and CN3, respectively, represent
the CN value under the condition of AMC I, AMC where P is the rainfall (respectively, for plant
II and AMC III (Table 4). dormant period and plant growing period),
6. Computing the weights Wh ðh ¼ 1; 2; 3) of each measured in mm,
CN value in, respectively, two periods to get the

Table 4
Grade division of AMC

AMC Soil moisture state Past 5 days rainfall (mm)

Plant dormant period Plant growing period

I Dry \13 \36

II Medium 13–28 36–53
III Moisture [28 [53
1866 Y. Yang et al. Pure Appl. Geophys.

Table 5
Comparison of the monitored and the computed runoffs

Month Runoff in Zheng (2008) (mm) Runoff in this article (mm) Error (%)

4 54.43 58.72 7.3

5 128.89 110.73 16.4
6 86.42 81.37 6.2
7 51.76 49.48 4.6
8 56.97 61.06 6.7
9 77.72 85.69 9.3

X
3 probabilistic seismic hazard and the factories
P¼ ðWh  Ph Þ ð10Þ locates,
h¼1

S is the retention parameter, calculated based on the
CN,
S ¼ 25; 400=CN  254 ð11Þ
2.3.3 Probabilistic non-point source pollution
in the catchments where factories are
destructed
9. Classify catchments in Sichuan based on the DEM
map and ArcGIS software. Each catchment are
named as Wn, where n is the nth catchment;
10. Calculating the pollutant loads Lm (kg h m-2 -
year-1) in each catchment in an event of seismic-
led water pollution by waste water from indus-
tries (SHI et al. 2002),
Lm ¼ 0:01  Cm  Q ð12Þ
where Cm is the pollution concentration (mg/L) in
the minimum requirement of water pollution
standard of the mth water pollutant.
11. Calculating the normalized index of distance Di,
where i is the ith pixel as applied in calculating
PGA0 , then,
Di ¼ 1=ð100  Disi Þ ð13Þ
where Disi is the distance between the factory and
the ith pixel;
12. Computing the probable non-point source pollu-
tion Pnp(j)(m)(i) in the catchment exposing to the
Pnp ð jÞðmÞðiÞ ¼ SDð jÞ  Lm  Di  DEMindex ð14Þ
where DEMindex is normalized by reciprocal of
DEMi, excluding the areas higher than the industry
sites (set as 0).
13. Mapping the pollution to each type of land use in
the study area by ArcGIS.
2.3.4 Probabilistic point source pollution
to the rivers in the study area
Classifying the probable polluted rivers by the
catchments and calculating the direction of rivers in
the study area by ArcGIS;
14. Computing the Single Factor Water Quality
Identification Index (SFWQII) of each water
pollutant in the potential hazard zones (ZHANG
2012). The single factor water quality identifica-
tion index of each water pollutant Pb can be
calculated based on Tables 6 and 7,
Pb ¼ Cb =Sb ð15Þ
Cb normally represents the monitoring value of the
bth pollutant, here in this article we define it to be
the value of the bth pollutant in the waste water
from damaged factories in a high probabilistic
seismic hazard areas. And Sb is the standard con-
centration of the bth pollutant.
15. Computing the comprehensive water pollution by
Water Quality Index WQI(x) in the xth river
Vol. 173, (2016) Probabilistic Analysis of Earthquake-Led Water Contamination: A Case of Sichuan, China 1867

Table 6
Five water quality degrees

P \1 1–2 2–3 3–5 [5

Level I II III IV V
Degree Good Moderate Unhealthy Very unhealthy Hazard

Table 7
Environmental quality standards for surface water (GB 3838-2002)

No Pollutant Concentration of V level (mg/L)

1 Water temperature (°C) –

2 pH (non-dimension) 6–9
3 DO 2
4 CODMn 15
5 COD 40
6 BOD5 10
7 NH3-N 2
8 TP 0.4
9 TN 2
10 Cu 1
11 Zn 2
12 Fluoride 1.5
13 Se 0.02
14 As 0.1
15 Hg 0.001
16 Cd 0.01
17 Cr6 0.1
18 Pb 0.1
19 Cyanide 0.2
20 Volatile phenols 0.1
21 Crude oil 1
22 Sulfide 1
23 Count of coliform group 40,000

Table 8
Evaluation standard for comprehensive water quality

Standard ranges Comprehensive water quality levels For short representing

1.0 B X1.X2 B 2.0 Level I I

2.0 \ X1.X2 B 3.0 Level II II
3.0 \ X1.X2 B 4.0 Level III III
4.0 \ X1.X2 B 5.0 Level IV V
5.0 \ X1.X2 B 6.0 Level V V
6.0 \ X1.X2 B 7.0 Inferior V without malodorous black V?
X1.X2 [ 7.0 Inferior V with malodorous black V??
1868 Y. Yang et al.
based on Pb,
1X a
a
WQIðxÞ ¼ X1 :X2 X3 X4 ¼ Pb þ
a b¼1 100
where a is the total number of water pollutant, X1
represents the first number of Pb and X2 is the first
decimal place of Pb. X1.X2 are applied to estimate its
comprehensive water quality level by comparing with
Table 8 before calculating its WQI(x). X3 is the
number of water pollutants involved in this calcula-
tion, while X4 is used to determine whether this water
quality satisfies the requirement level of water func-
tion, and is set as 0 in this paper.
3. Results and Discussion
We present the results of our analysis in this section.
3.1. Probabilistic Assessment on Seismic-Led Non-
Point Source Water Pollution
3.1.1 Water Catchments Spread and Industrial
Factories Density Distribution
Figure 3a details the number of factories in each water
catchments in Sichuan. The different shades of colour
a Water catchments spread and industrial factories density distribution, Sichuan
Pure Appl. Geophys.
represent different degree factory concentration density.
The blue base-colour outlines the shapes each catch-
ment. The darker the colouring, the more concentrated
ð16Þ the factories are. Figure 3b shows factory concentration
of water catchments with respect to different counties of
Sichuan (Tables 9, 10). The hardest-hit catchment
covers 40 provincial counties which accounts for 5 %
of total Sichuan province areas. The lightest-hit only
covers 4 counties, accounting for 0.5 % of the total
province’s area (Tables 9, 10).
3.1.2 Distribution of Pollutants in Potential
Hazardous Areas
Figures 4 and 5 show the water catchment (W10) that
has the highest number of factories, but does not
suffer from having the most categories of pollutants.
In comparison, catchment W5, only has one factory
under risk of seismic-led collapse, but expose to
nineteen types of water pollutants included in the
study except crude oil and pathogen. Similar situa-
tions are observed for W7, W13 and W14 with 5, 8
and 8 types of pollutants, respectively.
In addition, they illustrate the river catchments
dispersion in relations to the number of pollutants
that given factories have in each catchment. One
striking characteristic is that the factories that con-
taining the highest numbers of pollutant types are
Figure 3
 Table 9
The area size of water catchments, corresponding counties, counts of pollutant types and standardized pollutant density index
Catchments W1 W2 W3 W4
Vol. 173, (2016)

Area (ha) 144.68 96.88 226.96 96.09

Pollutant (counts)
Density (%)a
Counties coveraged by
polluted catchments
Number of counties
Catchments
5 8 8 19
3 8 4 20
nanjiangxian, wangchangxian, tongjiangxian, wanyuanxian, chengkouxian, pingwuxian, qingchuanxian, jiulongxian, mianningxian,
wanyuanxian, changxixian, bazhongshi, xuanhanxian, wuxixian, guanyuanshi, nanjiangxian, yuexixian, xidexian,
pingchangxian, langzhongshi, xuanhanxian, kaixian, daxian, dachuanshi, wangchangxian, jiangyoushi, zhaojuexian, xichangshi,
yilongxian, daxian, yingshanxian, dachuanshi, quxian quxian, kaijiangxian, jiangexian, changxixian, pugexian, dechangxian,
dazhuxian, liangpingxian zhitongxian, langzhongshi, yanbianxian, miyixian,
yilongxian, nanbuxian, huilixian
yantingxian, yingshanxian,
penganxian, xichongxian,
nanchongshi, fengxixian,
guanganxian, yuechixian,
wushengxian, tongnanxian,
hechuanshi
14 11 23 11
W5 W6 W7 W8

Area (ha) 118.62 45.12 197.29 102.98

Pollutant (counts) 19
Density (%)a 16
Counties coveraged by polluted catchments kangdingxian, jiulongxian,
mulizhangzhu, mianningxian,
yanyuanxian, xichangshi,
dechangxian, yanbianxian,
miyixian, panzhihuashi
5 5
11
luxian, hejiangxian, naxixian,
xuyongxian, gulinxian
9
3 9
renshouxian, gongyanxian, tongliangxian, chongqingshi,
leshanshi, weiyuanxian, bishanxian, baxian,
rongxian, jianweixian, yongchuanshi,
fushunxian, erbianyizhu, nanchuanxian, jiangjinshi,
muchuanxian, luxian, luxian, zhuanjiangxian,
yibinxian, mabianyizhu, hejiangxian, luzhoushi,
nanxixian, yibinshi, naxixian
meiguxian, jianganxian,
luzhoushi, pingshanxian,
naxixian, gaoxian,
changningxian, leiboxian,
Probabilistic Analysis of Earthquake-Led Water Contamination: A Case of Sichuan, China

xuyongxian, gongxian,
xingwenxian, gulinxian,
junlianxian
Number of counties 10 5 27 12a
a
Density values (Tables 9 and 10) obtained by dividing count of pollutant with area size of catchments multiplied by a standardization constant of 100
1869
 Table 10
1870

The area size of water catchments, corresponding counties, counts of pollutant types and standardized pollutant density index
Catchments W9 W10 W11 W12

Area (ha) 322.62 247.01 98.12 119.04

Pollutant 19 8 5 5
(counts)
Density (%) 6 3 5 4
Counties maerkangxian, jinchuanxian, lixian, maoxian, anxian, wenchuanxian, mianzhuxian, quxian, dazhuxian, guanganxian, liangpingxian, wenchuanxian, xiaojinxian, baoxingxian,
coveraged xiaojinxian, daofuxian, danbaxian, shefangxian, deyangshi, pengzhoushi, linshuixian, zhongxian, dianjiangxian, chongzhoushi, dayixian, lushanxian,
by baoxingxian, kangdingxian, ludingxian, dujiangyanshi, zhongjiangxian, guanghanshi, huayingshi, hechuanshi, changshouxian, kangdingxian, qionglaixian, tianquanxian,
polluted hongyaxian, rongjingxian, leshanshi, bixian, xinduxian, chengdushi, wenjaingxian, fengduxian, jiangbeixian, fulingshi, mingshanxian, yaanshi, danlingxian,
catchments hanyuanxian, ermeishanshi, shimianxian, jintangxian, jianyangshi, lezhixian, chongqingshi, baxian, wulongxian, ludingxian, hongyaxian, rongjingxian,
jiulongxian, erbianyizhu, ganluoxian, renshouxian, tongnanxian, ziyangshi, nanchuanxian, zhuanjiangxian jiajiangxian, leshanshi, hanyuanxian,
muchuanxian, mianningxian, yuexixian, anyuexian, zizhongxian, qingshenxian, ermeishanshi
meiguxian, xidexian, zhaojuexian gongyanxian, weiyuanxian, neijiangshi,
dazhuxian, rongchangxian, rongxian,
longchangxian, yongchuanshi, zigongshi,
fushunxian, luxian, yibinxian, nanxixian,
yibinshi, jianganxian, luzhoushi, naxixian
Number of 24 40 18 19
counties

Catchments W13 W14 W15 W16

Y. Yang et al.

Area (ha) 292.28 297.80 196.92 23.76

Pollutant (counts) 8 8
Density (%) 3 3
Counties coveraged by polluted ruoergaixian, nanpingxian,
catchments hongyuanxian, shongpanxian,
heishuixian, maerkangxian,
maoxian, lixian, wenchuanxian,
xiaojinxian, shefangxian,
pengzhoushi, dujiangyanshi,
baoxingxian, bixian, xinduxian,
chengdushi, wenjaingxian,
chongzhoushi, dayixian,
lushanxian, suangliuxian,
jianyangshi, qionglaixian,
xinjinxian, pengshanxian,
pujiangxian, renshouxian,
meishanxian, mingshanxian,
yaanshi, danlingxian, hongyaxian,
qingshenxian, jiajiangxian,
gongyanxian, leshanshi
Number of counties 37
nanpingxian, shongpanxian,
pingwuxian, qingchuanxian,
maoxian, jiangyoushi,
beichuanxian, jiangexian,
zhitongxian, anxian, mianyangshi,
mianzhuxian, nanbuxian,
deyangshi, yantingxian,
shantaixian, zhongjiangxian,
xichongxian, shehongxian,
nanchongshi, jintangxian,
fengxixian, shuiningshi, lezhixian,
tongnanxian, hechuanshi,
anyuexian, tongliangxian,
dazhuxian
29
19 8
10 34
ganluoxian, muchuanxian, yibinxian, yanbianxian, miyixian, huilixian,
mabianyizhu, yibinshi, yuexixian, panzhihuashi
meiguxian, pingshanxian,
leiboxian, xidexian, zhaojuexian,
xichangshi, jinyangxian,
butuoxian, pugexian, dechangxian,
miyixian, ningnanxian, huilixian,
huidongxian, panzhihuashi
21 4
Pure Appl. Geophys.
Vol. 173, (2016) Probabilistic Analysis of Earthquake-Led Water Contamination: A Case of Sichuan, China
typically dispersed around the main river basins.
Regions W4, W5, W9, W15 and W16 are at the
greatest risk of water contamination in event of
earthquake as all categories of pollutants included in
the study are found present in the factories within
these regions. Region W16 is the smallest water
catchment in Sichuan, but is likely to be the worst-hit
multi-source-led water contamination area as the
region has the highest pollutant density ratio.
Further, COD, NH3-N are the most common
water pollutants in these 16 catchments of Sichuan,
followed by TN and TP. Pathogen, measured by
count of coliform group, and animal and vegetable oil
are only found present in catchment W1. It should be
mentioned that NH3-N, TN and TP are all crucial
pollutants bringing heavy water eutrophication, while
COD is one of the organically toxic substances,
which kill fish and other aquatic life and lead to
human diseases such as cancer, physical deformation,
and gene mutations.
The toxicity of pollutants varies, but excessive
intake of any of them can bring severe health problem
such as cancer, misshapen, and gene mutations as
mentioned before. Figure 6 shows mapping of the
distributions of pollutant loads of each type of
pollutants in potential hazardous areas to, respec-
tively, analyze the influence of each pollutant. The
non-organically toxic substances, especially the
metallic toxic substances except Cr6, have the same
distributions, which are located mainly on the west of
the potential hazardous areas (catchments W4, W5,
W9 and W15), the same as two other non-metallic
toxic substance As and Se. Cr6, which is also a
metallic toxic substance, its distribution is similar to
other metallic pollutants but expands to catchment
W2 and W13.
Eutrophic pollutants, TP, TN and NH3-N, mainly
distribute on the northeast of seismic-led hazard areas
(catchment W3 and W10). This is due the type of
factories located in the region are mainly paper mills
and chemical plants, followed by food factories and
pharmaceutical factories.
The organic pollutant volatile phenol has the
similar distribution as TN and NH3-N, but mainly
influences W3, W10 and W14 areas. While organic
pollutants COD, BOD5 are similar to each other
influencing region W7 and W11, the distribution of
1871
sulfide is similar to that of metallic toxic substances,
but less in magnitude.
Figure 2f shows the population density distribu-
tion (2008). The highest population density regions in
terms of water catchments are southeast of W13, and
northwest of W10 where local populous are exposed
to high risks of water contamination by metallic
pollutant Cr6 and non-metallic pollutants fluoride and
cyanide. The next highest population regions are the
middle part of W14 where high risks of eutrophic
pollutant such as TN, NH3-N and TP are present and
northwest of W6 where pollutants cyanide and
fluoride are present.
All catchments, under the risk of seismic-led
water pollution, cover several counties in Sichuan,
especially those in catchments W4, W5, W15,
followed by W3, W10 and W14 (the name of
these counties can be found in Table 9 and
Table 10)
The distributions of probabilistic seismic-led non-
point source water pollution in these sixteen water
catchments (Fig. 7) are mapped to evaluate the state
of water pollution in each catchment. The distribu-
tions of the seismic-led non-point source water
pollution, calculated in this article, are same in
above-mentioned five categories of the damage
states. The calculation results show that the impact
caused by the combination of the seismic hazard PGA
and building damage ratio DR, which focuses mainly
on the distribution patterns instead of numerical
values. Therefore, numerical values are different in
the legend, we use ‘‘high’’ and ‘‘low’’ for represen-
tation purposes.
As Fig. 7 illustrates, the northern parts of catch-
ment W15 is found to be potentially hazardous by
many sources of water pollutants such as metallic
toxic substances, crude oil, and two non-metallic
toxic substance As and Se. The water pollution is
most likely to impact the following seven counties
within catchment W15: Pingshan Xian, parts of
Mabianyizhu and Muchuan Xian, Leibo Xian, Meigu
Xian, Zhaojue Xian and Jinyang Xian. In terms of
eutrophic pollutants such as NH3-N and TN, their
impact region is mostly likely to cover the following
8 counties: Rongchang Xian, Neijiang Shi, parts of
Dazhu Xian, Anyue xian, Lu Xian, Fushuan Xian,
Lezhi Xian and Renshou Xian.
1872 Y. Yang et al.
Figure 4
Distribution of pollutants in potential areas (1)
3.2. Probabilistic Seismic Point-Source Water
Pollution in Sichuan
3.2.1 Characteristics of Point-Source Water
Pollution to Rivers
Figure 8 shows most factories in the study areas are
quite close to river basin. The seismic-led water
pollution contaminates the river streams through both
point and non-point source pollution. In events of
earthquake-led factory collapses, the waste water is
discharged not only through the pipedrains and
released into the river streams but would also flow
through vast ground surface between the sites of
factories and the river basins causing non-point
source pollution covering a vast surface area. These
waters also partially penetrate the undergrounds and
owing to the toxicity of the polluting substances such
as metallic toxic substance Hg and organic pollutants
sulfide, the flooded areas face ecological damage on
vast scale. Finally parts of the waste water would be
Pure Appl. Geophys.
washed off by rainfalls, flushing into the nearest river
streams as causing point source water contamination,
indirectly bringing diseases to humans via drinking
water taken from these streams.
The concentration of pollutants in waste water Cb
is under the risk of excessive content due to the
seismic-led collapse of industrial buildings, so the
results of WQI(x) in river of each water catchments
are represented in a condition of the high probabilis-
tic waste water pollution.
3.2.2 Comprehensive evaluation of water quality
Figure 9 and Table 11 represent the WQI(x) of any
river in each water catchment in study area. Figure 9a
shows the degree of impact in terms of water
catchments instead of rivers. Here we make the
simplified assumption that the catchment has the
same degree of water pollution as a polluting source
(the rivers in this catchment). Figure 9b indicates the
Vol. 173, (2016) Probabilistic Analysis of Earthquake-Led Water Contamination: A Case of Sichuan, China 1873

Figure 5
Distribution of pollutants in potential areas (2)

counties impacted by the potentially polluted rivers in
the studied catchments. The names of counties are
listed in Tables 9 and 10.
From the results, the rivers in half of the
catchments are potentially under the risk of hazard
status of water pollution, which is in the level of
Inferior V with malodorous black, including catch-
ment W3 (7.180), W4 (9.650), W5 (9.650), W8
(7.180), W9 (9.650), W10 (7.180), W14 (7.180) and
W15 (9.650).
The rivers in the catchments, under the water
pollution risk are worse than level V, account for
75 % in total. That means, besides the catchment
mentioned above, W6 (5.850), W7 (5.650), W11
(5.650) and W16 (5.370), are also potentially under
the severe risk of water pollution. Catchments W4,
W5, W9 and W15 are among the heaviest–hit areas.
15 out of 19 types of pollutants are present in these
regions, containing a large number of various non-
organically toxic substances including Ag, Be, Cd,
Cr, Cr6, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb and Zn (metallic toxic
substances), As and Se (non-metallic toxic substance)
(Table 11).
The rivers in most catchments are potentially
under the impact five to eight different water
pollutants, varying from eutrophic pollutants to crude
oil and organically toxic substance. The rivers in
catchment W1 are the only one capable of potentially
reaching the ‘‘moderate status’’ (level II) and it is the
only catchment that contains pathogen as a pollutant
substance. This is mainly due to the properties and
products of the factories in the catchment.
4. Conclusions
The seismic-led collapse of factories partly causes
the water pollution in study area in a way similar to the
non-point source pollution. This is because the dis-
charge of pollutants is partially non-pipe drain and
would be flushed by runoff, causing the damage to the
ecosystem. The soil conservation service (SCS) curve
1874 Y. Yang et al.
Figure 6
Distributions of pollutant loads of each pollutant in potential hazardous areas, Sichuan
number (CN) method of calculating the runoff depth in
a single rainfall event combined with the seismic
damage index can be applied to estimate the potential
degree of non-point source water pollution in each
catchment, where the factories locate in the study area.
Since most factories in the study area are built
close to the rivers, the pollution types can also be
partially considered as the point source water pollu-
tion. The comprehensive water pollution by Water
Quality Index (WQI) combined with the seismic
damage index, can be applied to estimate the poten-
tial polluted level of point source water pollution in
the rivers of each catchment in the study area.
The estimation in this study is a general evalua-
tion of the seismic-led water pollution instead of a
precise simulation of how the polluted runoff spread
influencing the land and the ecosystem in the study
Pure Appl. Geophys.
area. But it provides the information of the probable
degree distribution of the minimum water pollution
both in term of non-point source pollution (in the
surface runoff) and point source pollution (in the
rivers) in Sichuan province.
The seismic-led abnormal discharge of the waste
water from the factories, which are under the moni-
toring of water quality by the National Ministry of
Environmental Protection in China, would potentially
cause the seismic-led non-point water pollution,
impacting 167 counties (87 % of total counties in
Sichuan). The polluted catchments, covering these
167 counties, have different degrees of seismic-led
water pollution due to the different distribution of
probability of seismic hazard, numbers of factories
inside of each catchment and the types of pollutants
present in the catchment.
Vol. 173, (2016) Probabilistic Analysis of Earthquake-Led Water Contamination: A Case of Sichuan, China 1875

Figure 7
Distributions of probable seismic-led industrial water pollution in potential hazard areas, Sichuan

Region W10, is the fourth largest in the studied
areas but potentially would impact 40 counties (most)
with eight types of pollutants, which are mainly
eutrophic pollutants and non-metallic toxic sub-
stances. W9, is largest in the studied catchments but
influence only 24 counties (fifth largest) with up to 19
types of pollutants, mainly consists of metallic toxic
substances. Furthermore, W9, W4 and W5 also have
high potential for metallic toxic substances-caused
water contamination. W3 is the sixth largest influence
on 23 counties (sixth largest) with eight types of
pollutants, has higher potential for eutrophication
pollution, Cyanide and Fluoride, and volatile phenols.
The pollutant COD and NH3-N covers on most
catchments in study zones, followed by TP and TN.
Pollutants such as animal oil and vegetable oil and
pathogen (count of coliform group) are only present
in W1 region, which covers 14 counties.
The results presented in this thesis provides an
insights into the potential impact outlook of water
contamination within Sichuan province in events of
earthquake under the PGA of 10 % probability of
exceedance in 50 years in China, and with the min-
imum value of the water quality standard. It gives a
visual representation of the information needed for
urban planning in order to the minimize losses from
future seismic-led hazards in Sichuan. The methods
of the evaluation of water pollution combined with
the seismic damage index can also be applied to other
place with high probability of seismic activity. The
direction of the surface water flow and speed were
not considered in this study when estimating the
1876 Y. Yang et al. Pure Appl. Geophys.

Figure 8
River distribution and factories in potential seismic-led water pollution zones

Figure 9
Water quality status in the rivers of studied catchments
 Vol. 173, (2016)

Table 11
The Pb value of each pollutant, WQI(x) and water quality level in each water catchment

Catchment Pb of each pollutant WQI Water quality

(x) level
COD BOD5 NH3- TP TN Cu Zn Fluoride Se As Hg Cd Cr6 Pb Cyanide Volatile Crude Sulfide Count of coliform
N phenols oil group

W1 1.75 2.5 7.5 – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – 0.125 2.350 II

W2 2.5 2.5 6.0 2.5 10 – – – – – – – 5.0 – – – – 1.0 – 4.270 IV
W3 2.5 – 20 2.5 25 – – – – – – – – – 1.0 1.0 5.0 0.5 – 7.180 V??
W4 2.5 – 10.0 2.5 7.5 1.0 2.5 6.67 10.0 5.0 50.0 10.0 5.0 10.0 – – 10.0 10.0 – 9.650 V??
W5 2.5 – 10.0 2.5 7.5 1.0 2.5 6.67 10.0 5.0 50.0 10.0 5.0 10.0 – – 10.0 10.0 – 9.650 V??
W6 3.75 3.0 7.5 2.5 12.5 – – – – – – – – – – – – – – 5.850 V
W7 3.75 4.5 7.5 2.5 4.5 – – – – – – – – – – – – – – 5.650 V
W8 2.5 – 20.0 2.5 25.0 – – – – – – – – – 1.0 1.0 5.0 0.5 – 7.180 V??
W9 2.5 – 10.0 2.5 7.5 1.0 2.5 6.67 10.0 5.0 50.0 10.0 5.0 10.0 – – 10.0 10.0 – 9.650 V??
W10 2.5 – 20.0 2.5 25.0 – – – – – – – – – – 1.0 5.0 0.5 – 7.180 V??
W11 3.75 4.5 7.5 2.5 10.0 – – – – – – – – – – – – – – 5.650 V
W12 2.5 3.0 5.0 2.5 7.5 – – – – – – – – – – – – – – 4.150 IV
W13 2.5 2.5 6.0 2.5 10.0 – – – – – – – 5.0 – – – – 1.0 – 4.270 IV
W14 2.5 – 20.0 2.5 25.0 – – – – – – – – – 1.0 1.0 5.0 0.5 – 7.180 V??
W15 2.5 – 10.0 2.5 7.5 1.0 2.5 6.67 10.0 5.0 50.0 10.0 5.0 10.0 – – 10.0 10.0 – 9.650 V??
W16 2.5 – 7.5 3.75 10.0 0.5 – – – – – – 5.0 – – – 8.0 – – 5.370 V
Probabilistic Analysis of Earthquake-Led Water Contamination: A Case of Sichuan, China
1877
1878 Y. Yang et al.
impact of seismic-led water contamination. We invite
researchers to sip into this area in future research
work.
Acknowledgments
The present study was supported by the National
Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.
41301585).
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(Received June 19, 2015, revised November 9, 2015, accepted November 25, 2015, Published online December 18, 2015)