Scandinavian Journal of Psychology, 1989, 30, 64-71

Planning, motivation, and evaluation in orientation to the

future: A latent structure analysis
JARI-ERIK NURMI
Department of Psychology, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland

Nurmi, J.-E. (1989). Planning, motivation, and evaluation in orientation to the future: A
latent structure analysis. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology, 30, 64-71.
The paper presents a model of orientation to the future in terms of three processes; motiva-
tion, planning, and evaluation. To test this model a total of 154 11-, 15- and 18-year-old
adolescents were interviewed about their goals and hopes for the future. Seven observed
variables were estimated and a model including three latent constructs was tested using the
LISREL VI computer program. The planning construct consisted of the amount of know-
ledge, the complexity of plans and their level of realization. The evaluation construct included
internality, estimation of the likelihood that the goals would be realized and an overall
emotional evaluation of the future. The motivation construct consisted of one observed
variable, extension. Confirmatory factor analysis showed that the model fitted the data. thus
providing support for the theoretical model.
Key wordr: Goals, plans, future orientation, action theory.
Jari-Erik Nurmi, Department of Psychology. University of Helsinki, Fabianinkatu 28,
SF-00100 Helsinki. Finland

The future provides objectives for people’s motives and also contexts for their life planning.
For example, most adolescents’ goals and hopes have been shown to concern expected life-
span events (Nurmi, 1987a; Solantaus el al., 1985). Similarly, young people have been shown
to be able to express plans and strategies for realizing their interests concerning the future
(Nurmi, 1987~;Verstraeten, 1980). Furthermore, causal attributions and affects have been
analysed in studies on orientation to the future (Nurmi, 1987~; Trommsdorff, era!., 1982). On
the basis of action theory frameworks (Hacker, 1985; Nuttin, 1984), cognitive psychology
(Bandura, 1987; Weiner, 1985) and life-span approach (e.g. Smith et a [ . , in press), it is
suggested here that orientation to the future could be described in terms of three major
psychological processes, motivation. planning and evaluation. Motivation in this model refers
to what interests people have in the future. Planning activity, on the other hand, refers to how
these interests are planned to be realized. Finally, evaluation concerns fo what extenr the
interests are expected to be realized. Although theoretical ideas concerning the processes
involved in orientation to the future have been discussed earlier (e.g. Nuttin, 1984; Trom-
msdorff et al., 1982), they have not been systematically tested.

MOTIVATION
Most of people’s motives, interests, and goals are future-orientated, i.e. they refer to antici-
pated future events and objectives (Nuttin, 1984). This motivational system has recently been
characterized as a complex hierarchy consisting of motives, values, interests, and goals, the
levels of which are assumed to differ according to the generality and abstractiveness of the
intentions involved (Lazarus & Folkman, 1987; Leontiev, 1979). The major principle behind
these theories is that the higher level motives and interests are realized via lower level goals,
which are further worked out through a number of subgoals (Lazarus & Folkman, 1987;
Nuttin, 1984).
S a n d J Psycho1 31) (19x9) Ftitiire orienrotion 65

Future-orientated motives, interests, and goals have typically been studied by asking people
what kind of goals and hopes they have concerning the future. Then, the content of these goals
and hopes have been analysed by classifying them according to the topics they concern
(Nurmi, 1987a; Trommsdorff et al., 1953). How far into the future people’s interests and goals
extend is another dimension of orientation to the future that has been frequently studied (for a
review see, Rakowski, 1979; de Volder, 1979). This extension is also closely related to the
content of interests, because the expected realization time of a goal is influenced by the life
domain to which it refers. For example, Nurmi (19876, 1988) recently showed that extension
of thinking about the future varies according to its content, e.g. leisure activities, future
education, occupation and family, reflecting the cultural “prototype” of life-span develop-
ment. Since, in contrast with other variables studied, the content of goals cannot be included in
test of the model usingconfirmatory factor analysis, extension was used here as an indicator of
the motivational aspect of orientation to the future. However, it must be remembered that
extension is only one dimension of future-orientated motivation. In this study, as in a number
of earlier ones (Sundberg et a l . , 1983; Trommsdorff et al., 1952), extension was examined by
asking people to estimate the time by which they expected their goals and hopes to be realized.

PLANNING
The second major process involved in orientation to the future concerns how people plan to
realize their aims, interests, and goals. Although they may already have realization skills or
strategies, planning and problem solving are normally required (Nuttin. 1984). In the frame-
works of cognitive psychology and action theory, planning has recently been characterized as a
process consisting of setting goals, constructing plans, and realizing these plans (Hacker, 1985;
Nuttin, 1984; Pea 6t Hawkins. 1987). These three stages can be applied to future orientation as
follows: first, individuals have to construct representations of both the goal and the future
context in which the goal is expected to be realized. Both of these anticipatory representations
are based on the knowledge people have about the future and they provide a basis for the next
two phases of the planning. Secondly, people have to construct aplari, project. or strategy to
achieve the goal within the chosen context. The third phase of planning activity is the execution
of the plrins and strategies constructed, taking into account the current situational factors.
However, research on planning for the future is difficult, mainly because life-planning
typically lasts for years. even decades, which makes it difficult to follow up the process in
detail. This is the main reason why this study concentrated on analysing the amount of
knowledge concerning the goals, the complexity of the plans constructed and the level of their
realization (also, Verstraeten, 19230). Although this type of approach is restricted compared
with research on planning as a process, it does provide information about the current state of
planning activity.

EVALUATION
People also have to evaluate the realizability of the goals they set and the plans they construct.
It was suggested here that causal attributions and affects concerning future events constitute
this third process, since they are both included in evaluating the possibilities of realizing
future-orientated goals and plans. Interestingly, Weiner (1985) recently proposed that the
attribution-emotion process plays an important role in evaluating behaviour outcomes.
According to Weiner (1985), attributions of future events to internal and controllable causes
are followed by feelings of hopefulness and optimism.
Causal attributions concerning the future have usually been analysed in previous studies by
66 J.-E. Niirmi Scand J Psycho1 30 (1YSY)

asking subjects to rate the extent to which they believe they can exert control over the
realization of their hopes, indicating internality (Nurmi, 1 9 8 7 ~Trommsdorff
; et al., 1982).
Similarly, affects concerning the future have been investigated by asking subjects to evaluate
their overall hopefulness about the future (Nurmi, 1 9 8 7 ~ or ) to rate the likelihood of the
realization of hopes (Nurmi. 1 9 8 7 ~Trommsdorff
; etal., 1982). All these measures are used in
this study t o investigate the evaluation process.
The hypothesis that orientation to the future consists of three processes, planning, evalua-
tion, and motivation, was investigated by testing whether these three constructs could also be
identified on the basis of correlational data as analysed by confirmatory factor analysis. From
the data based on interviews, seven observed variables measuring adolescents' orientation
towards the future were estimated. In the model tested, planning activity was measured
against three variables, the amount of knowledge concerning the goals, the complexity of
plans constructed and the level of their actualization. Similarly, evaluation involved in orienta-
tion to the future was measured against the three variables, internality of control beliefs
concerning goals, probability estimations concerning their realization, and general emotional
evaluation of the future. Finally, motivation was measured using one variable, extension. In
the latent structure analysis carried out by LISREL VI (Joreskog & Sorbom, 1981). the
theoretical constructs of the model may correlate. Since thcre was no reason to assume that
planning, evaluation, and motivation do not interact, the three theoretical constructs were
allowed to correlate when the model was specified, i.e. their correlation matrix was set free.

METHOD
Su bjecrs
A total of 154 adolescents (82 boys and 72 girls) were interviewed individually about their hopes and aims
for the future in a quiet room suitable for confidential personal communication. Fifty-seven participants
were 10-11years old, 48 of them were 14-15 years old, and 49 were 17-19 years old. However, since some
subjects from the original sample of 154 adolescents have missing values for at least one of the variables
studied, the analyses presented are based o n a total of 144 subjects.

Instruments
(1) Before being questioned about their hopes, the subjects were asked to indicate on a four-point
bipolar rating scale the extent to which they saw their future as unpleasant and frightening or pleasant and
safe.
Next, they were interviewed about their hopes and aims for the future: They were asked "Would you
like to tell me what kind of goals or plans you have? . . . and what kinds of hopes and dreams". Whenever
a specific hope or goal was mentioned, the interviewee was asked:
(2) When he/she thought it would be actualized (estimated as the anticipated age of the subjects at the
moment of the actualization).
(3) How much knowledge he/she had about factors influencing its realization.
(4) To what extent he/she had planned its realization.
( 5 ) To what extent he/she had already carried out plans in order to realize it.
(6) To indicate on a four-point bipolar rating scale the extent to which the occurrence of each hope and
aim depended on external/situational factors or internal factors emanating from the subjects themselves,
and
(7) To indicate o n a five-point bipolar rating scale the probability that the hope o r aim would be
actualized.
Before the study was carried out, the interviewers were carefully trained in the interview procedure.

Scoring and reliability

First, the amount of knowledge concerning the factors influencing the realization of the hopes was
analysed by two raters according to how many pieces of related information were mentioned in the
interview. This scale measures the number of pieces of information, the minimum being zero. Then, the
S c a d J Psycho1 30 (19x9) Filturr orientation 67

hopes were classified independently by two raters into four categories according to how far advanced the
subjects' plans for realizing each of them were. The answers were classified in category 0 if no plans were
mentioned, and category 4 if a detailed plan for realizing the aim was described. This variable measured
the compkritv ofplans constructed. Hopes were analysed similarly according to the level of realizariorr,
i.e. the extent to which the plans had already been carried out.
Content analysis reliability, measured by the percentage rate of agreement between the two raters. was
0.88 for knowledge, 0.77 for planning and 0.91 for realization.
To cater for variations in numbers of hopes among the subjects, the average extension as well as the
average amount of knowledge, planning. realization, internality, and probability estimation were com-
puted using the A G G R E G A T E program of the SPSS package (Nie et al.. 1975).

Model estimation
The measurement model in this investigation was estimated using the LISREL VI computer program
(Joreskog & Sorbom. 1981), a technique that specifies how the hypothetical constructs are measured in
terms of the observed variables. The technique yields maximum likelihood estimates and a chi-square
goodness of fit test that makes it possible to examine the fit between the covariance matrix implied by a
model and that which is actually observed. Thus, unlike values of the test statistic used to reject null
hypotheses, the smaller the x? relative to its degrees of freedom, the better the fit.
In addition to the loadings of observed variables on theoretical constructs (LlSREL estimates) specified
in the model, the program provides t-values for all of the estimated parameters. These are defined as the
parameter estimate divided by its standard error and theycan be used to test whether the true parameter IS
zero. In addition to LISREI estimates, I-values are also provided for the correlations bctwccn the
theoretical constructs, if not fixed. Parameters with I-values greater than two in magnitude are normally
judged to be different from zero. The program also provides modification indices (MI) for all parameters
fixed in the model. Since the modification index value provides information about the expected decrease
in $, if the single parameter alone were freed. they can be used to analy5e how the model should be
changed in order to improve the fit.
Since the age of the participants ranged from 10 to I9 years and the variables involved have been shown
to correlate with age (Nurmi. 1 9 8 7 ~ )the
. model was tested using partial correldtions so that the effect of
age was partialled out. This was done t o ensure that the correlations studied were not manifestations of the
age variable.

sion

a
A - O O

Fig. 1. Confirmatory factor model showing the relation between the seven observed variables and three
latent constructs.
68 / . - E . Nurmi Scnnd J Psycho1 30 (1989)

Table 1. Means, standard deviations, and correlarions of variables while controlling for the effect of age
Variable 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 M SD
1. Extension 1.000 20.58 4.41
2. Knowledge -0.046 1.000 1.58 0.77
3. Plans -0.094 0.311*** 1.OOO 1.03 0.73
4. Realization -0.153' 0.228" 0.141* 1.000 0.63 0.50
5. Internality -0.171' -0.065 0.055 0.096 1.ooO 2.96 0.52
6. Probability -0.041 0.063 0.078 0.077 0.204" 1.000 3.49 0.53
7. Emotional -0.178' -0.084 0.013 -0.109 0.237" 0.172' 1.000 2.68 0.59
evaluation

RESULTS
To examine whether the model consisting of three latent constructs fitted the covariance
matrix of seven observed variables, a latent-variable confirmatory factor analysis was run
using the LISREL VI computer program (Joreskog & Sorbom, 1981). A depiction of the
model is given in Fig. 1, where the rectangles represent the observed variables, the circles
reflect the latent constructs, and the sourceless arrows indicate measurement residual effects.
Since the motivation construct was measured only against one observed variable, extension,
its loading on this latent variable was fixed at 1. The correlation matrix of the seven observed
variables while controlling for the effect of age, and the means and standard deviations of the
same variables are presented in Table 1.
The overall fit of the measurement model tested appeared to be good, x2 (12,
N=144)=12.09, p=0.439. In addition, the goodness of tit index for the model was 0.977,
which also indicates a good fit. Summary statistics of the confirmatory factor analysis are
presented in Table 2. It can be seen that factor loadings for factors I1 and 111 were high and
their t-values exceeded 2.6. This suggests that all factor loadings were significant, identifying
the factors very satisfactorily (Joreskog & Sorbom, 1981). In addition, the modification index
(MI) values, suggesting by how much the freeing of the parameters would increase the fit of
the model, were all below 2.5, far from the critical value of 5. This also suggests the good fit of
the model. A graphic representation of the model tested, with LISREL estimates, measure-
ment residual effects and correlations between the constructs, is presented in Fig. 1.
The correlation between motivation and evaluation constructs was -0.31 with a r-value of
-2.51, indicating that the further into the future hopes and aims extended, the less internal

Table 2. Confirmatory factor loadings, their (-values, residua&, and squared multiple correlations for the
model
~

Factor and variable Loading Residual

I. Motivation
1 . Extension 1.00 0.00 0.00 1.00
11. Planning
1. Knowledge 0.65 0.53 3.73 0.42
2. Plans 0.47 0.78 3.36 0.22
3. Realization 0.35 0.85 2.93 0.13
111. Evaluation
1. Internality 0.52 0.73 3.58 0.27
2. Probability 0.33 0.89 2.67 0.11
3. Emotional 0.50 0.75 3.51 0.25
evaluation
Scnnd J Psycho1 30 (198Y) Fittitre orientorion 69

and the less optimistic adolescents were when thinking about their realization. However, the
correlations between the motivation and planning constructs (r= -0.15) and planning and
evnluation constructs (r=-0.03) were low, with t-values being far from significant.

DISCUSSION
The confirmatory factor analysis showed that a model of orientation to the future consisting of
three latent constructs, planning, evaluation, and motivation, fitted well with the empirical
data from seven observed variables. In the model the planning activity construct consisted of
knowledge concerning goals for the future, the complexity of constructed plans, and the level
of their realization. On the other hand, the evaluation construct include the internality of
attributions concerning goals, the estimation of their probability and overall emotional
evaluation of the future. For the motivation construct, which was measured against only one
observed variable, extension, the model shows that extension can be characterized as a
construct of its own. T h e fact that the model fitted the data is assumed here also to provide
support for the theory concerning the psychological processes involved in orientation to the
future.
The fact that the model presented fitted well with empirical data also suggests that the
methods used satisfactorily measured adolescents’ thinking about the future. Thus, using
methods employed in this investigation may help in surmounting the huge, previously men-
tioned problems of validity and reliability in the studies on orientation towards the future
(Perlman, 1976; Ruiz et al., 1967). Furthermore, classification of the variables measured on
the basis of the psychological processes involved may also help researchers to produce more
coherent and valid interpretations of their data.
Although motivation, planning, and evaluation were conceptually differentiated in the
model, i t must be remembered that they are all stages of the same process, orientation to the
future. In fact they constitute a continuous process which begins by setting goals on the basis of
mutives and values. After this stage, planning is required in order to realize the goals. Finally,
evaluation is carried out by comparing the behaviour outcome to the goal state, thus providing
information for developing new goals and strategies. In the case of orientation to the future,
the process is even more complex. For example, people often evaluate the realizability of their
goals before starting to plan the realization, and this may influence the setting of the final
goals. Furthermore, evaluation is often carried out simultaneously with planning. However.
such an examination of motivation, planning, and evaluation was not within the scope of this
study.
Since orientation to the future is an essential part of people’s thinking, especially during
adolescence and early adulthood, the three processes involved in it may also play an important
role in personality. For example, Nuttin ( 1954) proposed that motivational and operational
aspects, a concept he uses for the cognitive elaboration of a person‘s aims and goals, are two
basic structures of personality. Similarly, Lahtela (1982) and Pehunen (1982) stated that
personality involves three processes inherent in all pattern of activity: motivational factors,
operational processes including knowledge, skills and strategies and, finally, evaluation of the
course of action. The results of this study also provide indirect support for these general
approaches to personality.
These results should also encourage the application of the model in future research on
personality development. Analysing individual development as changes in motives and inrer-
esfs interacting with cultural knowledge concerning expected life-span development, life
planning based on constructing skills and strategies, and evaluation involving attribution-
emotion processes may turn out to be a n interesting approach to personality research. For
example, investigating age-specific “crises” during the life-span by analysing them in terms of
70 J.-E. Nitrmi Scand J Psycho1 30 (19x9)

motivation. life-planning, and evaluation of life situation may provide a new strategy for
studying the development of personality and related clinical issues. However, to test the
relevance of the model to the theory of personality, further studies have to b e carried out using
both correlational methods similar to those used here and more idiographic types of analysis
based on biographies, clinical data, etc.
The correlations between the constructs of the model tested in this study suggest that the
further into the future hopes and aims extend, the less people believe that they can influence
their realization, the less likely they believe realization will occur and the less hopeful they are
about the future. As future events approach, the sense of control and optimism concerning
them increases, emphasizing the importance of the next few years in people's life-planning.
This increase may be related t o the fact that adolescents' thinking has been shown mainly to
concern the following five- to ten-year period (Nurmi, 1987~).Planning for the future over the
next fcw years compared with lifelong scheduling may be functional, because, as distance to
future events increases, the amount of knowledge and the objective level of control over them
decrease simultaneously.
A major problem related to the results presented, however, concerns the extent to which
conclusions can be drawn from correlational data about the psychological processes underly-
ing the phenomenon studied. Although it cannot be concluded that a correlational structure is
equivalent to underlying psychological processes, a latent structure analysis provides the
researcher with one type of evidence for the model: the fact that two variables correlate
suggest that they may reflect the same psychological mechanism; similarly, the fact that two
variables are not associated, suggests that the mechanisms they reflect should also be un-
related. However, since correlations do not provide the researcher with information about the
features of the underlying psychological mechanisms, theoretical analysis and experimental
research are called for. One type of study that might provide additional evidence for the model
would involve influencing one dimension of the process and then measuring what happens on
another dimension of the same process. For example, the finding that an increase in
knowledge concerning the future will also increase the planning and realization could be
interpreted as evidence for the model. Similarly, a finding that changes in attributions
concerning the future cause changes in affects would provide further evidence. However,
where orientation to the future cannot b e manipulated experimentally, this type of analysis
would require intervention programmes and follow-up studies.
One challenge for future studies would be a replication of this study not only among
adolescents of similar age-groups but also among groups of adults. Testing the fit of the model
in different age-groups would make it possible t o investigate whether the structure of orienta-
tion to the future changes as people grow older. Although the total structure would remain
stable with increasing age, there may be changes in the relationships between the main
constructs. O n e hypothesis is that the three processes involved in orientation to the future
become more independent with age. Similarly, it is possible that different observed variables
play different roles in specific constructs at different ages.

This research was supported by the Social Science Research Council and by Ministry of Education. 1 am
grateful to Riitta Kinnunen, Maijaliisa Rauste-von Wright, Antti Uutela, Johan von Wright, and two
anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments on earlier drafts of this article. I would also like to thank
Lauri Tarkkonen for his advice and help with the use of the LISREL VI program.

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Received 27 October 1985