Andri’s Gold Analysis during 06-Sept-2019 to 14-Sept-2019

06-Sep-2019
No reason to buy gold anytime soon.
1400 area most likely coming up.
Sell rallies is the plan and should stay that way for a while.

There will be Pullback before more downside.

I doubt it will go higher than 1530 ish

I really hope equities drop lilbit and we get short lived rally on gold, i
need some pending’s triggered

I'm looking at the possibility that equities dump hard, gold rallies again
and AUD and NZD crash, at least keeping open mind on it
Getting mixed signals
Will let today play out then reassess things

Gold has given pullback that i was expecting to come in Asia, nothing’s
changed bias is to the downside

Pivots at 1523.5 ish

Adr high and mayo 15m around same area
1525 should be it, otherwise I’ll admit I’m wrong and need to re assess
We could go higher and my short bias would still be the same, especially
after such a huge drop yesterday

This move is already exhausted got divergence on smaller timeframes

Yes, I’m keeping open mind on some more upside
1536 and I’ll cut my losses
We are also at psych level of lower end of week open Asian range
Too much resistance here at these levels I’ll be surprised if breaches 1526

Q. What makes gold move like this, sudden up and down movements???

They need to collect buy orders to sell to so that they can drop price...
That’s reason why price doesn’t go str8 up or down
They always go below or above recent highs to collect orders before they
move
Because that’s where SL and stop orders are placed
When you are buying then your SL is sell order
Retail thinks ohh.. NFP missed, weak dollar so gold will rally

retail has really hard time admitting they are wrong , their bias doesn’t
change when sentiment changes, I know General makes fun of me for
switching bias all the time, but that’s what you have to do and always
look for reasons why this or that is or will be happening

I am hoping we see 1500 or below today. So far gold has played out
exactly as i anticipated so I’m optimistic.

I added to gold....

I made enough from gold this week, i won't cry if i need give some back
I'm pretty confident in my bias

1 more push or not, all good i took some off and will hold rest over
weekend.

Either way i can't complain.

Gold looking like it might take another push.

I knew gold had another push

Let's gooooo

Now I'm done for the day.

Have 1 pos still running.

Q. Would it be smart to hold gold positions over weekend or?

I don't see why not.
I think gold drop just started.
I'll do same thing Monday place limit orders.

******
07-Sept-2019

My lots been big, but risk really not that much though.
Tight stops.
And protecting when in small profit then adding risk to the same trade
that i already took out etc.

Gold i see the possible 1 more push but i can't make strong enough bias
either direction, at least next week i see more downside.

We need to get to more extreme levels

If they drop 1400 area i can promise u 75% plus retail will be sellers
Then they drive price 1600
It's highly likely imo.
Next week's cot we will see, no doubt did they dump long positions that's
why price dropped so heavily last 2 days

******
09-Sept-2019
Gold should be going at least to 1440, next major demand zone.
Even further all the way down to 1320.
I'm not expecting any more upside until at least this move i mentioned
has played out

I have both sell limits and sell stops in place, would assume some
pullback (stop hunt, liquidity seeking or whatever u wanna call it first)
But I'm not ruling out a str8 away dump that's why I'm prepared for both
scenarios

First tp there 1480, in my mind there's no doubt price is going there,

when we break that level we have demand at 1440 and that's where I'm
also very certain price will be heading in the near term

Only 1 limit order was triggered, i closed the rest and now waiting for my
sell stops to get triggered
1450 by the end of the week is what I’m expecting.
If only every week would start off like this.

after 6 years struggling to stay ahead in this game , i still don’t know shit,
i just manage to take what I’ve learned and puzzle it into something that
is working, the studying never ends, and believe me the markets will get
more difficult, the "smarter" retail gets, they will find ways to keep taking
their money.

Trade both ways without fear, gold is the one you can trade back and
forth, and always 50pip+ trades.

The trend is down.

1480 first tp for me and 1450 is where i think it will go this week.

There needs to be confluences of things, wick on a candle doesn't say

anything.
M or W are worthless if not in line with other things etc.
If it was just so black and white, there were no struggling traders.
Gold can go 1525 bias would still be short.
Yeah well I'm holding 1515 sell with tp at 1480.
That's how you make the big bucks.

If you go thru the chat from last week you see why gold has been and
should keep dropping.

When price was at 1509 i placed a sell limit at 1515

And i have more sell limits higher
Because i dont know if price drops from 1515 or 1525
But i want to be in when it does
Depends on the account
I’m trading a few different sized accounts
That depends all on where your stop will be
Lot size is irrelevant, its the % ur risking that matters
If 1% on 10 pip SL is 2 lots then 0.2 lots you should be using if ur SL is
100 pips.

I want to point out that both equities and gold can drop together on
strong dollar.

1. Don't try trade against fundamentals.

2. PA goes out the window when there are strong
fundamentals like now , this is why most technical traders
struggle
Line the 2 together and you have a winning formula

Some trading principles or whatever you wanna call it, only work in
certain conditions, once they start to fail you need to go back to the
drawing board and reconsider your approach.

We are not in normal market conditions now with brexit and trade war
etc.
We all need to adapt.

Now we need to go below recent lows at least to seek liquidity

so could bounce from there
We not going to see 1530 again or something
1501.36 is next pivot, m1
I closed most of it and placed new pending’s, bigger lots.

Today is my best day and i hope this week will be my new best week.
No stopping gold, and called here before hand, if you missed you can only
blame yourself.
Even micro lots would have paid.

My sell stop at 1499 also triggered.

I’m no god, I’m just a seasoned trader trying to fit all the
puzzles on daily basis.

******
10-Sept-2019

I can't remember who it was, but remember when i said gold could move
in Asia and you said yeah up, and i said also down. Now we moving and
equities rallying, just perfect
No stopping until 1480, if that comes now in Asia or tomorrow i can't say
but we are going 1480.

Gold has next demand zone around 1440 area.

Or at least that's of any importance.

I definitely do have an open mind, we could see higher prices, but I'm
99.9% we need to drop down to proper demand so that move will be
possible.

Where price is now is still basically in the consolidation area.

1500-1550 like it has been.

1480 is my first tp, looking from Kevin’s supply and demand price should
go at least 1440.

1510 area i don’t see gold going higher.

I’ll share something with you.

Gold
i won’t be sharing this again though , he’s so fairly priced and the value in
his work is worth much more then he charges , i could already pay for
next 30 years subscription from only the gold profit i made.

Kevin’s weekly report on all major pairs gold and oil. I dropped out as a
fulltime student, don’t have the time to dig this deep, his reports and
trading journal is enough for me.

1420 is making sense to me, if the nearest important demand is 1440.

1490 right now.
Let’s goooooo.
Gold is like my cash cow, but for sure that hasn’t always been the case,
and it’s a tricky one to trade.

I’m calling 1473-1476 today.

We could have a up day for gold, it’s possible but the upside potential
should be very limited.

All i know is gold is going further down and equities higher, today i can’t
say for sure but that’s what I’m expecting.
This is just a trap ahead of market open imo.
Get traders to buy gold.
They need buyers to sell too simple as that.

57% retail is long, of course we would want a higher % for the downside
bias to me more solid, but this now looks like its attracting buyers.

If we see upside today I won’t be closing, I’ll wait and add more short
when i see the reversal.

I’ll admit I’ve seen more bearish gold chart, just hoping it’s a part of their
plan to trick everyone into buying.
Watch 1502.6 levels on gold

Trade what you see not what others say.

My gold pending’s in the green; the DD is much less already.

I think the HOD is already set.

Plenty trapped buyers there.

If DOW keeps going then what we are seeing with gold is a setup for major
drop.
This is how I bank big on gold people.
Strong bias.
DD is irrelevant.

I know my approach like with gold isn't for everyone.

******
11-Sept-2019

Closed most of my gold.

Best day i ever had
Can't believe how well it's been going.
Now i will tone it down with lot size and approach.

I'm not planning on giving anything back this time.

I decided to close most of my gold and place new pending’s, seems we
could get a pullback.

Try not getting too greedy now.

I don't see price breaking 1503 max 1506.
Before we go 1440 most likely 1420 or lower even.

Big money can be made, this of course now is not every day
opportunities; but when they come, I personally risk more (wisely).

I'm pretty sure gold dumps atleast until tomorrow.

Gold could like eur QE.
So it could rally on that.
Some at least.
Hoping it just dumps to 1450 today then i can take the rest of the week
off.

I bank big if gold drops to 1450 area.

I’m already up more than i could have wished for it we go 1475.
Gold is looking so bearish.
Every small rally i get divergence alert on the smaller tf's str8 away.
There’s no upside for now.
I’m starting to see a very high probability of equities dumping hard soon.

I want gold to drop today.

I want be out of risk completely.
Could be 1 big push to upside on equities and drop on gold then a good
drop in equities and I’m not sure about gold but some rally then most
likely.

Another signal sell gold now at 1493.

Chart incoming.
Small lot the sl is wide.

I’m eyeing a1450 area.

My tps for the signal were 1478 and 1459.
We could go 1496 then drop. Or just dump now that be even better.
Critical level we breaking 1490.
let’s gooooo.

I will admit I’m having a hard time now leaving my emotions out , will not
take any more trades until what I’m holding has played out and after
today I’m lowering my risk to less than 1% per trade.
Gold should not rally much higher if down side is supposed stay valid for
the day.
Zone flip kinda thing on smaller tf gold now maybe.

Gold collecting orders that's for sure.

Look at PA on gold everything is screaming buy, I'm not buying it.
Sticking to my bias.

Guess we could go1496 as i said earlier and lilbit lower.

Look at how last days candles formed.

And look how todays candle is looking, what's the most likely outcome for
this candle?

The body of the candle if drop turns into a wick.

Look at last days candle decent wick to upside.
Then drop.
I'm expecting same scenario today.
After this overly extended gold rally, and now fundamentals lining up with
pullback.
It's pretty clear.

Let's go gold 1496 then drop.

I want them to shift the zone.
Go 1496 grab the orders and shift the zone below 1490.
Could stop at m4 pivot.

I always know the risk of what I'm trading.

Gold can be brutal i know.
This move up in equities and strong $ is not supportive of higher gold
prices.
5 pins to mayo.
This has to hold.

******
12-Sept-2019

I have added very small sell limit on gold at 1499 and 1502.7.

Look at that EMA.

Current 4h candle hopefully closes lower.
I truly believe gold could move nicely in Asia.
Doesn't make sense equities rallying and gold also, also we had strong
dollar.
Setup for big drop i believe, 1460 tomorrow.
Today target was 1473 ish area that obviously failed.

Dow is hitting my anticipated target.

Or close to it.
The tp on the signal was 27218, i chickened out 27015.
Now we are at 27150.
Crazy shit, I'm can only blame myself not staying confident I my bias.
Was overleveraged on gold and in DD made me more cautious and there
for missing out.
I preached all day we could see a big daily candle.
I missed out on 135 points.
Gold is going to tank hard.
Mark my words.

These 2 charts should have somewhat inverse correlation, but look today.
Gold is not engulfing yesterday’s candle that's a good thing.
Dow goes 27500 this week.
27400 minimum.
Then it can tank.
I hope we get small pullback in Asia or London tomorrow so i can get in 1
small buy pos.

I don't know if it happens in Asia or later in London/NY , it could go up

1503 is possible , all I’m saying is gold sometimes moves in Asia the Dow
and gold daily are def diverging so I wouldn't be surprised it comes as
early as in Asian session.

Gold is going 1450 at least.

Still expecting this.

They are collecting buyers.
Let's look at ratios.
Trade the setups, just don’t expect them to follow thru today , it’s one of
those days i believe.
Updated pic from yesterday on gold, we still inline.
It’s those 2 possibilities I’m seeing.
Either push to 1509-1515 or then drop.
Or just drop from here.

Gold showing divergence on 5m to 30m , the 1h bullish divergence

already played out , and then we are in big daily and weekly tf divergence
, so I’m holding this fucking DD hoping today is it.

I usually find it hard to stay away exp if i see something, but I’m not
getting tricked today, already playing with fire on gold.
I’m confident in my bias, if I’m wrong I’ll give plenty back (the most profit
I’ve made ever in this short time) if I’m right I’m cashing out big time.

I don’t want to see gold much higher.

1515 Max.
I figured this might happen my last pending there at 1510.
1513 is Adr high.
Needs to drop from here then my level count and projection on gold is
still valid.

If we break this 1517 then next stop is 1530.

That's next level of liquidity.
This level count is still valid.
Stop hunts into mid last level is quite common.

Since they broke that 1516-1517 area next stop is 1530.

Fundamentals are always right; i will not let the chart fool me again.

They 80 pips above where they needed, nothing saying they have to go
seek liquidity further but if they do next stop is 1530.

Problem not since didn't already.

Short bias still intact.
Anything is possible tho gold likes QE.
We could go 1600 from here even.
Looking at daily. Aren't we just forming h&s pattern.

My gold level chart still valid.

Gold tanking.
Thank God I held thru this DD.

Gold gone.

I wouldn't wanna be a gold buyer.

Can just imagine how many jumped on already today and we're still
holding.

Gold is not going higher yet.

1450 then we can start looking at upside.
Another updated gold chart.

I'll be very surprised if this doesn't play out.

Got pending’s 1503 and 1510.

Don't see it going higher.
And 1510 stretching it even.
My first tp is 1475.
We could see gold drop low as 1380 next weeks, sentiment is that
positive.

******
13-Sept-2019

There's a chance we chop between 1520 and 1500 before dropping

properly next week, but i do believe in Asia or tomorrow we see a decent
move to the downside.
At least 1470-1480 area.

Right now i think 1510 would be max upside and 1503 ish more likely
max upside.

Looking at gold weekly, it can either drop tomorrow big or close the week
around 1490-1510.

Gold already going.

Let's hope this daily candle reaches 1450, let's gooooo.

The possibility is def there, maybe 1450 is stretched but my first tp is

1475 happy if i can go into the weekend with that profit.
I'll be happy.

Let's gooooo

Look at daily tf gold bro.

But where is gold going before dropping.
I'm telling why i have my bias all day.
Every day.
U just don't pay attention then.

I have pending at 1503 and 1510.

So sure it's possible.

Either gold chops between 1490 and 1520 until next week before dropping
, or what I'm expecting is a drop as early as now is Asia or tomorrow to
1475-1450.
Look at daily!!!
What's it showing?

Inline with supply and demand from higher tf.

I do my analyses from the bigger tfs.
My entries are on 5m.
I base my direction from bigger tfs.

These should explain how i made 100k in 2 weeks.

Last time i post cuz this group is not about bragging, it's for helping and
learning and sharing and caring.
But for sure I'm confident these days, I've been spot on lately , with help
from some great traders.
Another updated gold chart.
The damage was already done so no i don't see much upside there.

I just got my laptop, gold’s divergence from today hasnt even started to
play out properly.
I’d be willing to bet it drop if someone’s up for a bet.
Sure it could go 1510 but i highly doubt it.
1503 makes sense at best.

So gold didn’t drop in Asia.

Now rallied hit my 1503 pending.
Let's see what happens from here.

Check it, spot on so far.

Could see lilbit higher first.

Here my gold game.

1511-1513 incoming on gold before the drop.

Pending’s there is a smart move.
RR on that trade is very good.
I’m calling a big shot 1475 today before markets close , remember this
comment I’ll remind you end of the day.
Basing it off daily TF structure.
They created a M it wasn’t enough came for the 3 push above the highs
(wicks) 13 mins. until retail data, it’s all lining up.
Perfectly marked up gold chart BTMM style, now tell me why I’m wrong?

Next few hours we will see if gold tanks further rallies or just close around
current price.
Sticking to my bias even if need to roll over to next week.
The damage was done yesterday.
We are not breaking that high before a move a lot lower.
Ofc saw that trap miles away and shared it here as it went.

Gold’s now where i want i t to turn.

I don’t want gold above 1507.
Then my bias for the day is kind of gone, tho it stays the same it just rolls
into next week.
Let’s go there are still few good hours left.
Anything can happen.
Daily candle already red.
More to come.
Work of art.
Go thru my charts of gold today.

When technicals and fundamentals line up together.

Gold's not done yet.

Cmon gold 1 more push.

******
14-Sept-2019

Gold even more down now.

Cot report out , i will give you update on what's happening with gold, it
should be more clear this week if we starting bigger move down or if this
is just healthy pullback to go higher.
My guess is bigger move to the downside.

Look at daily bro.

Fundamentals backing this up.
Both positive risk sentiment, not good for gold safe haven part, then it's
dollar it's strong, and even if they cut 25bps it's already priced in.
So i don't see a case for much upside unless we some serious surprise like
bigger fed cut to weaken the $ or a serious dump in equities.
Another factor is brexit.
No deal brexit would have impacted not only UK and EU but is a risk to
who global economy.
And now it's pretty certain there will never be no deal brexit.
If cot shows non-commercials closing more longs (this is for sure) but if
they are adding shorts that's a sign of further move down.

Cot showing big drop in long orders but no adding shorts , so the
downside could be limited to 1450 area , next week’s cot since we always
get delayed info will give it more clear.

But 1450 to me at least is a given.

Prob more 1420-1440 and if we see next week they closed more longs and
added shorts we are going 1380 at least.
I think if they do 1440 we still get move back up to 1500 even if the plan
is further down to 1380.
And you with supply and demand, realize we hit major supply on the
biggest TF, that has the most value.
Monthly time forces are strong even if the plan is to break thru that
supply for higher prices it will take few tries and bounces from there
before.
I know many will disagree but this is what im seeing (GOLD).

This chart is not from me but makes perfect sense.

Inline with my chart above and I've said atleast 1450 and reconsider from
that area if move higher could come, so I do not doubt this scenario.
Seems non-commercials just drop bunch of their longs drive price down to
that area but don't add shorts until after another bounce up to that area
then they start dumping longs and add shorts heavily, already collected
bunch of buy orders from those gold bulls so certain of their bias , will be
epic smack in the face for those who will buy above 1550 when we get
there.

I personally think there is already so many trapped there above 1520 that
we don’t go all the way there.
The 1507 ish projection would be more likely scenario in my view.

******
15-Sept-2019

This is what i think on gold , somewhere that mid to low 1400 area and
then we go 1600.
Not first higher and then down, the damage is done h&s pattern on daily
is powerful stuff.
I have some much confluence with current sentiment also.
I’m pretty certain it plays out like that , i will be more cautious now going
forward not holding DD rather get in with tight SL my bias is strong to the
downside for this coming week , if we need wait midweek i don’t but we
going that 1450 minimum.

It could go 1520 area.

Gold called this high here in the group, we ate well that day.

******