The use of climate change

mitigation scenarios for

financial sector target
setting, transition planning
and alignment assessment
2 October | Hybrid event
13:40 – 14:55 (CET)
 Just released

Noels, J., et al. (2023), "Climate change

mitigation scenarios for financial sector
target setting and alignment assessment: A
stocktake and analysis of their Paris-
consistency, practicality and
assumptions", OECD Environment Working
Papers, No. 223, OECD Publishing,
Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/bcd25b82-en.

Pouille, C., et al. (2023), "Paris-consistent

climate change mitigation scenarios: A
framework for emissions pathway
classification in line with global mitigation
objectives", OECD Environment Working
Papers, No. 222, OECD Publishing,
Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/0de87ef8-en.
Proposed criteria for Paris-consistent climate mitigation scenarios
and resulting scenario envelopes
1. Limit warming to 1.5°C
in 2100
2. No or limited overshoot of 1.5°C
throughout the century
3. Keep global warming well-below
2°C throughout the century
4. Ensure short-term peaking of
GHG emissions
5. Achieve net-zero GHG emissions
before 2100
Source: Pouille, C., et al. (2023), "Paris-consistent climate change mitigation scenarios: A framework for emissions pathway classification in line with
global mitigation objectives", OECD Environment Working Papers, No. 222, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/0de87ef8-en.
The use of climate mitigation for financial sector target setting and
alignment assessment: challenges and opportunities
Only very few of the selected Scenario providers: increase coverage and
scenarios comply with all five Paris granularity; fully disclose GHG emissions
Agreement consistency criteria and outcomes of scenarios

Limited geographical and sectoral Financial sector: select Paris-consistent

granularity require financial users to scenarios; consider more than one
make assumptions to address gaps scenario; standardise disclosure of
scenario-based targets and assessments
Users do not always have
information on uncertainties Climate policy makers: contribute through
relating to scenario assumptions national sector-specific scenarios; provide
and feasibility climate policy certainty and specificity
Source: Noels, J., et al. (2023), "Climate change mitigation scenarios for financial sector target setting and alignment assessment: A stocktake and analysis of their
Paris-consistency, practicality and assumptions", OECD Environment Working Papers, No. 223, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/bcd25b82-en.