Concept of Hypothesis Testing

Concept of hypothesis testing
Kurnia Wahyudi
Department of Public Health

Faculty of Medicine Universitas Padjadjaran
2023 – 2024
Recommended reference
• Rosner, B. (2015). Fundamentals of biostatistics (8th ed.).

Boston, MA: Cengage Learning.
• White, S. E. (2020). Basic and clinical biostatistics (5th
ed.). New York: Lange/McGraw-Hill.
September 2, 2023 2
Statistical inference
• Estimation
• Estimating values of specific population parameters
• Method:
• Point estimation: mean, median, proportion
• Interval estimation: lower and upper limit
• Hypothesis testing
• Testing whether the value of population parameter is equal to
some value (one group)
• Testing whether there is a difference between population means
(two or more groups)
• Testing whether there is a difference between population
proportions (two groups)
• Testing whether there is a correlation between two variables
September 2, 2023 3
Example
September 2, 2023 4
Example
Research question:
Is the mean dietary energy intake of 2-year-olds
significantly different from the population value (based on
National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III)?
September 2, 2023 5
Example
Result:
From sample, the observed mean dietary energy intake of
2-year-olds was 1242 kcal. From NHANES III, the reported
value was 1286 kcal.
Question:
• Could they conclude that there is a significant mean difference?
• What else is needed to conclude that there is a mean difference and
not just a random occurrence?
September 2, 2023 6
• Why is hypothesis testing so important?

• Provides an objective framework for making decisions using
probabilistic methods, rather than relying on subjective
impressions.
• Provides uniform and consistent decision-making criterion for
all people
September 2, 2023 7
If any of the following terms appear in the research

question, then a study is not simply descriptive  research
hypothesis should be formulated:
Greater than, less than, more likely than, associated with,
compared with, related to, correlated with, causes, and
leads to
September 2, 2023 8
• Steps in hypothesis testing:

1. Research question (chap 1)  research hypothesis (chap 2)
 statistical hypothesis
2. Select the appropriate test statistic
3. Select the level of significance () for the statistical test
4. Determine value of the test statistic must be attained to
declare significant result (critical value)
5. Perform the calculation
6. Drawing and stating the conclusion
September 2, 2023 9
Step 1
• H0 (null hypothesis)
• Example: there is no difference between assumed/hypothesized
value and the population mean
• 1 = 0 (using Greek letter;  for proportion,  for correlation
coefficient, etc.)
• The statistical test is performed whether we reject or do not
reject the H0
September 2, 2023 10
Step 1
• H1 or HA (alternative hypothesis)
• Example 1:
• There is a difference between assumed/hypothesized value and
the population mean
• 1  0 (two-sided or two-tailed)
• Example 2:
• The assumed/hypothesized value is larger or smaller that the
population mean
• 1 > 0 or 1 < 0 (one-sided or one-tailed)
Step 1
• A two-sided test is appropriate when the investigators do

not have an a priori expectation for the value in the
sample (conservative)
• A one-sided test is can be performed when the
investigators have an expectation for the value in the
sample, and they want to test only whether it is larger or
smaller than the mean of the population (has more
power or it is easier to reject H0)
Step 1
• It is important to decide which test is performed before

data collection begins or before data analysis
• In particular, do not change from a two-sided to a one-
sided test after looking at the data
Step 1
Research question:
Is the mean dietary energy intake of 2-year-olds
significantly different from the population value (based on
National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III)?
H0?
H1?
Step 2
• Parametric methods
• Data come from some underlying distribution (normal, or
binomial), whose general form was assumed known
• Non-parametric methods
• Assumption about the shape of the distribution are not made
• And/or small sample size
Step 2
Step 3
Errors in hypothesis testing

Truth situation
No difference (H0) Difference exist (H1)
hypothesis testing
Do not reject H0 Correct Type II error or 

Conclusion from
Correct
Reject H0 Type I error or 
(Power or 1 - )
Step 3
• The probability of a type I error () is the probability of

rejecting the H0 when H0 is true
• Commonly referred to as the significance level of a statistical test
• The probability of a type II error () is the probability of
not rejecting the H0 when H1 is true
• Power of the test is defined as 1 -  or probability of rejecting H0
when H1 is true
Step 3
• The general aim in hypothesis testing is to use statistical

tests that make  and  as small as possible
• General strategy is to fix  at some specific level (0.1,
0.05, or 0.01, …) and to use the test that minimizes  or,
equivalently, maximized the power
Step 3
• Example:
• Efficacy of potentially dangerous medication  avoiding false-
positive  use a low 
• Reassuring the public that living near toxic waste dump is safe 
avoiding false-negative  use a low 
Step 4
Step 5
Step 6
• Critical value-method
• By applying the critical value approach it is determined, whether
or not the observed test statistic is more extreme than a defined
critical value.
• Therefore the observed test statistic (calculated on the basis of
sample data) is compared to the critical value, some kind of
cutoff value.
Step 6
Step 6
-1.99 +1.99
Step 6
Step 6
-1.67 +1.67
Step 6
Conclusion:
On average, the dietary energy intake values observed in 2-
year-olds by Dennison and colleagues are not significantly
different from those in the NHANES III.
Equivalence of confidence intervals and
hypothesis testing
hypothesis testing
hypothesis testing
The results for the first 7 observations were as follow:
Observation Mean Lower limit Upper limit

1 129.2523 126.0318 132.4729
2 128.5695 125.3490 131.7901
3 129.5739 126.3534 132.7945
4 130.4337 127.2132 133.6543
5 131.1520 127.9314 134.3725
6 128.7260 125.5054 131.9465
7 126.0655 122.8449 129.2860
hypothesis testing
hypothesis testing
hypothesis testing
• Inferences drawn from confidence intervals and
hypothesis testing are usually similar
• It is a good practice to compute and report both p-value
and a 95% CI for 
Scientific vs statistical significance
• Statistically significant but can still not be scientifically

(or clinically) important
• If a small difference but statistically significant was observed due
to large sample size
• Some statistically non-significant results can be
scientifically (or clinically) important
• Encouraging investigators to perform larger studies to confirm
the direction of the findings and possibly reject H0, with a larger
sample size
Pitfalls
• Statistical hypotheses, H0 and H1, were presented in

research hypothesis section.
• Proposing two-sided research question but one-sided
research hypothesis was constructed or vice versa.
• Research question was about association or relationship
but correlation was selected in research hypothesis
section or vice versa.
Pitfalls
• Double-barreled research hypothesis

• A is associated with the risk of B and having A increase the risk
of B, or A is associated with the risk of B and having A decrease
the risk of B.
• There is a mean difference of X between group A and B and the
mean of X of group A is higher than group B, or there is a mean
difference of X between group A and B and the mean of X of
group A is lower than group B.
• There is a correlation between X and Y and the correlation is
positive, or there is a correlation between X and Y and the
correlation is negative.

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Department of Public Health

• Rosner, B. (2015). Fundamentals of biostatistics (8th ed.).

• Why is hypothesis testing so important?

If any of the following terms appear in the research

• Steps in hypothesis testing:

• A two-sided test is appropriate when the investigators do

• It is important to decide which test is performed before

Errors in hypothesis testing

Do not reject H0 Correct Type II error or 

• The probability of a type I error () is the probability of

• The general aim in hypothesis testing is to use statistical

Observation Mean Lower limit Upper limit

• Statistically significant but can still not be scientifically

• Statistical hypotheses, H0 and H1, were presented in

• Double-barreled research hypothesis

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