Climate Change and Transition

towards New Agricultural Adoption

and Strategies in Khaplu Valley, Gilgit
Baltistan, Pakistan; A Serious Concern
And Threat To Socio-economic Sector
1. Introduction
Global climate change is a shift in the "average weather" that a given region experiences over a long

period of time (30 years or so) (Stephenson et al. 2008). Such a change enforced by the increases

in temperature will have considerable impact on various socio-economic sectors e.g., water, agriculture,

health, forestry, biodiversity etc. and Gilgit-Baltistan is not an exception to these changes (Parry et

al., 2004)the largest known economic impact of climate change is upon to agriculture because of the
size and sensitivity of the sector (Robert Mendelsohn et al.,2009)there is increasing evidence

that greenhouse gases have already begun to warm the planet (intergovernmental panel on climate

change (IPCC),2007).if nothing is done to curb emission the stock of greenhouse gases is expected to

grow sustainability over the next century largely from burning fossil fuels but also from land use change

(IPCC)

Khaplu valley is surrounded by high peak mountains lakes glaciers and historical places like ghanche
glacier, ghanche lake, Yabgo fort, the 600 year old spiritual mosque chaqchan and Thoqsikhar place are
located in Khaplu valley. The peoples of Khaplu valley are agro-pastoralist and depend on glacier and
snow melt water for agricultural and domestic uses. There production consist on wheat. Barley, Buck
wheat, potato etc.khaplu valley is further divide in to two sector namely Balla and Payeen all the
peoples of Balla and Payeen are depends on ghanche glacier melt water for agricultural use due to
climate change the people of the valley is facing scarcity of water for domestic and agriculture uses.
Agriculture is sensitive sector and depend on weather and the Khaplu valley people sown wheat seed in
spring(march) and till waiting for snow melt and glacier water for 2.5 month that’s why the production
of crops is not yet increasing so that the residents are adopting the alternative way of income rather
than spending unproductive time in the field. Planting more trees like apricot.baires walnuts and apple
is eliminating the fertility of the land and the traditional farming has changed in to semi mechanized
exotic tool and techniques, impure and toxic things in food causing the serious diseases and due to
climate change several species are become extinct from the valley some disease like
diarrhea,dysentery,digestion problems, appendix are become common in the valley especially winter
and now the most of people have been migrating towards the cites for comfort and opportunity.

Abstract
Climate change is concerning issue by which the whole world facing very painfully. Rapidly growth in
population, industrialization has drastically increased the exploitation of natural resources, degradation
of environment causing the international and global concerning problem. Rapidly exhausting ozone
layer, awful increase in temperature, rising sea level, frequent climatic desaster,decrese in snow falling,
increasing rain fall is leading the world towards a drastic consequences of cimate change also it
indicates that climate is really changing. Being a ecologically fragile area gilgit baltistan is highly
vulnerable due to mountains and glaciers area.khaplu valley is located in district ghanche of gilgit
baltistan. The people of Khaplu valley are agro-pastoral and principal of agriculture are consist on wheat,
buck wheat, barley potato and depends on snow melt and glacier water.to better understand the impact
of climate change catastrophe i conducted interview in Khaplu valley which
included(chaqchan,braqchan,ghares,dynes,hachi,muldumar,goma staqgi,stronpi).study revealed that
over the forty year the local inhabitants gone through a transition towards the new adoption caused by
climate change in Khaplu valley. Due to scarcity of water and agricultural productivity local are leaving
the agriculture sector and seeking for government employment and business rather than spending time
on field.Tempreature has increased in summer people is facing extreme hotness which had not faced by
our previous generation. Rainfall has decreased in season which is mandatory in the in summer season
for crops. Snow has decreased in winter snow water is necessary for cultivation and for household use.
Vegetation cover has increased therefore the productivity of filed has also decreased. Whether diseases
is also increased.

2) Methodology
This questionnaire based study has been carried out in Khaplu valley, district ghanche of skardu gilgit
baltistan Pakistan during the winter December to 1 December to 15 February, 2022-2023, a total 60
interview were conducted. To collect authentic and mature data, it was gather from male and female of
age of fifty or above.

3) Result
a. Rain fall: According to 5% of respondent rain fall has highly increased during summer in Khaplu
valley. While 14% believe that rain fall is increase .While 26% respondent believe that rain fall has
 highly decreased in summer season 40% believe in decreased. The rest of 3% respondent
believes in no change in rain fall during summer season in Khaplu valley.
b. Snow fall: According to 6% respondent snow fall has highly increased 10% respondent believe in
increased. While 36% of respondent believe in highly decreased 12% respondent believe in
decreased. While the rest of 3% respondent believe in no change in snow fall in Khaplu valley.
c. Glacier melting :According to 33%of respondent believe that glacier melting has highly increased.
While 23% of respondent believe that glacier melting has increased and 6% of respondent
believe that glacier melting has highly decreased. While 26% of respondent believe in decreased
and the rest of 10% believe that glacier melting has either no change or unknown.
d. Vegetation cover: According to 38% of respondent believe that vegetation cover has highly
increased and 26% of respondent believe that vegetation cover in Khaplu valley has increased.
While 15% of respondent believe that vegetation cover in Khaplu valley has highly decreased and
11% believe in decreased. While 5% of respondent believe that vegetation cover in Khaplu valley
has either no change or unknown in which 4% believe in no change while the rest of 1% believe
in unknown.
e. Temperature in summer: According to 50% of respondent believe that temperature in Khaplu
valley has highly increased and 18% believe that temperature has increased. While the 6% of
respondent believe temperature has highly decreased and 10% of respondent believe
temperature has decreased. While the rest of 5% respondent believes that temperature has not
changed.
f. Flooding: According to 50% respondent flooding has highly increased and 18% of respondent
believe that flooding in Khaplu valley has increased. While 6% of respondent believe that flooding
has highly decreased and 10% respondent believe that flooding has decreased. While the rest of
5% respondent believe in no change in flooding in Khaplu valley.
g. Productivity of agriculture: According to 8% of respondent believe that productivity of
agriculture has highly increased. While 18% of respondent believe that productivity of agriculture
has increased and 41% of respondent believe that productivity of agriculture has highly
decreased. While 25% of respondent believe that productivity of agriculture has decreased and
the rest of 10% respondent believe in no change in agriculture productivity.
h. Weather diseases: According to 48% of respondent believe that weather disease has highly
increased and 28% respondent believe that weather diseases in Khaplu valley has increased.
While 3% of respondent believe that weather diseases has highly decreased and 10% believe in
decreased. While the rest of 3% believe in no changed in weather diseases.