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Safety Science: Khaled Alkhaledi, Sami Alrushaid, Jasem Almansouri, Ahmed Alrashed
Safety Science: Khaled Alkhaledi, Sami Alrushaid, Jasem Almansouri, Ahmed Alrashed
Safety Science
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ssci
Using fault tree analysis in the Al-Ahmadi town gas leak incidents
Khaled Alkhaledi a,⇑, Sami Alrushaid b, Jasem Almansouri c, Ahmed Alrashed d
a
Industrial and Management Systems Engineering Department, College of Engineering and Petroleum, Kuwait University, P.O. Box 5969, Safat 13060, Kuwait
b
Kuwait Oil Company, Kuwait
c
Kuwait Fire Department, Kuwait
d
Science Department, Public Authority for Applied Education and Training, Kuwait
a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t
Article history: The gas leak incidents that occurred in Al-Ahmadi, Kuwait, were considered to be unprecedented phe-
Received 3 January 2015 nomena worldwide. Three gas explosions occurred between January 2010 and November 2010: two
Received in revised form 22 April 2015 occurred at different houses that were connected to the Kuwait Oil Company natural gas network in
Accepted 30 May 2015
north Al-Ahmadi, and one occurred at a house in south Al-Ahmadi that was not connected to the network.
Available online 30 June 2015
These explosion incidents triggered an immediate investigation. The fault tree analysis was used to iden-
tify the type and the source of the leaking gas and to determine how the leaking gas reached the surface.
Keywords:
Four different source hypotheses were investigated: leaks from the natural gas network, leaks from the
Al-Ahmadi
Kuwait
sewer network, leaks from wells and boreholes in and around the town of Al-Ahmadi, and leaks from
Gas leakage underground geological formations. The study concluded that the leaking gas in the Al-Ahmadi incidents
Gas explosion was natural gas and of geological origin. The natural gas gradually migrated from deep hydrocarbon
Formation fractures reservoirs upwards through cap-rock fractures. The gas collected in the Dammam formation and soil near
Dammam formation the surface and then leaked into the air. The analysis and the results of this investigation can serve as a
useful reference if any similar gas leak incidents happen elsewhere.
Ó 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2015.05.015
0925-7535/Ó 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
K. Alkhaledi et al. / Safety Science 79 (2015) 184–192 185
Fig. 1. Cracks and burn marks inside the bedroom and bathroom walls. 2. Method and results
Fault tree analysis was used to determine the source and the
type of the leaking gas and to analyze all possible scenarios of
how the gas could have reached the surface.
Al-Ahmadi Town
FTA was applied in this study as a systematic safety analysis
tool that proceeds deductively from the occurrence of Al-Ahmadi
gas leak incidents, and expands outward and downward to identify
the many contributing causes. FTA proceeded from one event to
Block 1 many sub-events by asking ‘‘How could this event have hap-
pened?’’, contributing causes to the gas leak incident were identi-
fied and then listed as a part of the next lower level of analysis
(sub-faults). These sub-faults were then connected as influencing
inputs to the upper level using either ‘‘AND’’ gates or ‘‘OR’’ gates.
An ‘‘AND’’ gate states that all sub-fault events were necessary for
the gas leak incidents to occur; an ‘‘OR’’ gate states that any of
the sub-faults is sufficient to generate the gas lean incidents
Fig. 2. Satellite view showing the location of the explosion incidents in Al-Ahmadi.
(Mahar et al., 1990).
Four different hypotheses of possible causes were tested in this
investigation, namely leaks from the KOC’s gas network, leaks from
A study was conducted by Al-Rashed (2014) to locate and to
the sewer system, leaks from the wells and boreholes in and sur-
identify the gas leakage source. Intensive geochemical surveys rep-
rounding Al-Ahmadi, and leaks from underground geological for-
resented by 47,626 gas readings were conducted inside and around
mations beneath Al-Ahmadi (see Fig. 3). Various site
block number 1 of Al-Ahmadi using an up-to-date soil gas detector
measurements and tests were used for each suspected contribut-
(Crowcon gas detector). Inspection of the iso-methane contour
ing cause that may have led to the Al-Ahmadi gas leak incidents.
map of the surveyed area revealed that the study area was charac-
terized by low-to-medium gas leakage intensity (0–500 CPS).
Extremely high local anomalies were recorded in the west part of 2.1. Hypothesis one: leak from the gas pipes network
the Al-Ahmadi town, which attained gas intensities up to 4000
CPS. Al-Rashed’s investigation could not determine the reason There are two different gas pipe networks in Al-Ahmadi, namely
behind the gas leakage, but it guessed that the source of the gas the old and the new gas networks. The old network consisted of
could be either nearby surface leakage from gas networks or natu- two parts; the first was the gas pipes inside each KOC house, and
ral gas leakage from deep formations. The study did not survey the the second was the gas pipes outside the KOC houses and through
area around KOC houses. the town. The new gas pipe network is located only outside KOC
Earlier investigations could not find the source and the type of houses through the town; it functionally replaced the second part
the leaking gas in Al-Ahmadi. Therefore the first objective of this of the old network. The objective of the first hypothesis was to find
study was to identify the sources and the type of the leaking gas, out if any part of the KOC’s gas pipe network was causing the gas
while the second objective was to determine how the leaking gas leakage incident (see Fig. 4).
reached the surface. Fault tree analysis (FTA) was used to investi-
gate four different contributing theories of the gas leak’s suspected 2.1.1. Old gas pipe network; inside the KOC houses
origins and type. All KOC houses use gas exclusively for stove cooking. The gas
The FTA method is primarily used in the safety fields to deter- pipe was constructed of carbon steel, and it connected the stove
mine the causes of system failures and to promote the safety of with the outside gas network. The main valve that connects the
complex systems. FTA was developed in 1962 at Bell Telephone inside house pipe with the outside pipes was closed to ensure that
Laboratories by H. A. Watson to study the safety of the launch con- no gas was supplied during testing. The internal ½ in pipes at all
trol system for Minuteman missiles. It was used to assess and KOC houses in Al-Ahmadi, including the two KOC houses where
improve system safety in industries including aerospace, defense, the explosion incidents occurred, were investigated using a pneu-
railroad, automotive, oil and gas, chemical processing, and the matic pressure test for any gas leak (ABSA, 2012).
nuclear industry (Lacey, 2011). The pneumatic pressure test results indicated that the gas pipes
FTA is applied to investigate potential faults and its modes and inside the tested houses and the cooking stove were generally in
causes by using a graphic modeling technique that displays the good condition and well maintained. It was concluded that the
various combinations of faults, failures, and human errors that internal pipes were not a contributing cause of the gas leak inci-
could lead to the incident event. FTA can also be applied to identify dents; therefore, they were ruled out.
186 K. Alkhaledi et al. / Safety Science 79 (2015) 184–192
Fig. 4. Fault tree analysis layout for Al-Ahmadi gas pipes network.
2.1.2. Old gas pipe network; outside the houses leaked throughout the town. Thus the old, decommissioned gas
Although the old gas pipe network had been out of commission pipe network alone could not have been the cause of the gas leak
since 2008, it was necessary to evaluate the pipe to insure that incidents, but the pipes helped the natural gas spread around the
there was no residual gas leakage. The old gas pipes network out- town faster.
side both the KOC and the government houses was made of carbon
steel materials. The old gas network consisted of four inches gas
main and the one inches gas branch line coming off the main 2.1.3. New gas network pipes outside the houses
and connecting to a gas meter outside KOC houses. The new gas pipe network around KOC and government houses
Four testing methods were used. The first was the excavation was put into service in February, 2008. The new gas network is
and exposition of fuel gas lines for visual inspection, the second constructed of high-density polyethylene (HDPE), which is resis-
was the measurement of the lower explosive limit (LEL) level tant to corrosion (Murty, 2010). The new network consisted of
around the majority of houses, the fourth was guided wave ultra- two parts; the first was the four inches gas main outside the KOC
sonic technique (GWUT) examinations of the steel pipes’ structural houses and through the town currying the gas at 0.5 psi, and the
integrity. second was the one inches gas branch line coming off the main
Visual inspection results showed that some parts of the carbon and connecting to an outside gas regulator and meter, where pres-
steel pipes were corroded, deteriorated, and perforated, and others sure reduced to 0.3 psi for distribution inside the houses.
were in good condition (Jones, 1995). There was discoloration of The new gas network was isolated from the manifold feeding
the soil around the deteriorated pipes (Hoeks, 1972), which indi- station by turning off the primary valve. The new HDPE gas pipes,
cated the presence of gas. The time frame of the leakage was which normally operate at 0.5 psi, and the regulator valves were
unknown; some of the gas leak discoloration could have happened tested using air pressure at 5.0 psi.
before the pipe was decommissioned. No gas leak was found in the four and one inch pipes or in the
Gas samples from inside the old pipes were tested, and the regulator valves, and based on the test results the new gas pipe
results showed the presence of natural gas, although the concen- network was not considered to be a contributing cause of the
trations were not high enough to account for the quantity of gas Al-Ahmadi gas leak incidents.
K. Alkhaledi et al. / Safety Science 79 (2015) 184–192 187
Al-Ahmadi were not a contributing cause to the gas leak incident the sub-surface formations located up to 300 m underneath
phenomenon. Al-Ahmadi because previous studies had only focused on geologi-
cal formations at depths between 300 and 1220 m, where oil could
2.3.2. Cathodic protection wells be found. Shallow formation data had to be collected specifically
The cathodic protection system is a technique used to control for this study.
the corrosion of a metal surface. Cathodic protection wells vary
in depth and size (Baeckmann et al., 1997). There were 36 such 2.4.1. Geological investigation
wells installed at various locations in Al-Ahmadi since 1961 to pro- Two seismic studies, one two-dimensional and one
tect the buried gas pipe network (i.e., carbon steel pipes) and other three-dimensional, were performed to better visualize and to
steel structures. Out of the 36 wells, 25 were shallow ground beds map the formation’s geological and geophysical structure under
that were between two and five meters deep, while the remaining Al-Ahmadi with particular attention on the near-surface region. A
11 were deep ground beds (22–76 m deep). Each deep ground bed shuttle radar topography mission (SRTM) was used to obtain
consisted of a casing pipe, anodes with cables, and coke breeze. The detailed surface elevation data.
deep well anode bed casings were mostly flanged, but some cas- From the images, two major cap-rocks were identified; the Rus
ings were not flanged (Peabody, 2001). Some cathodic protection (shallow) and the Al-Ahmadi (deep). Both cap-rocks would consti-
wells may not have been sealed as thoroughly as hydrocarbon tute an effective barrier to contain hydrocarbon reservoirs if they
wells, which could have allowed natural gas to leak along the bore- were to remain undisturbed (Watts, 1987). The Al-Ahmadi ridge,
holes from the lower to the upper formations or even to the the arch-shaped set of geological formations over the hydrocarbon
surface. reservoir beneath Al-Ahmadi town, was also identified (Kusky,
Wireline logging, which is a detailed record of the geological 2009). A 3D seismic model was developed to assess the potential
formations penetrated by the boreholes (Darling, 2005), was per- pathways of hydrocarbon gas under Al-Ahmadi. Natural gas was
formed in all 11 deep cathodic protection wells. The logging test present in high concentrations in the Dammam formation beneath
confirmed the presence of gas in all tested wells. Gas samples were Al-Ahmadi town and was limited to the Al-Ahmadi ridge zone,
taken from the surface and from deep inside all 11 deep ground where the formation is unusually near the surface (see Fig. 8).
beds, and analysis of them indicated the presence of natural gas. In this zone, the surface layer above the formation becomes as
It was concluded that the cathodic protection wells were a possible thin as six meters and extends geographically from the south tank
pathway by which natural gas could have escaped from under- farm (STF) to beyond the north tank farm (NTF) with a width of
ground sources. approximately 500 m (see Fig. 9).
Fracture is the physical separation of an object or material into
two or more pieces. If a fracture develops perpendicularly to the
2.3.3. Water wells
material’s surface, it is called a normal fracture; if it develops par-
Natural gas can also leak from the water wells or the casing of
allel to the material’s surface, it is called a shear crack or disloca-
the water wells around Al-Ahmadi, according to Johnson (2014).
tion (Cherepanov, 1979). Fractures can provide permeable
This hypothesis was tested by identifying water wells within a
pathways for gas to migrate through a formation.
radius of three kilometers around Al-Ahmadi. Three shallow wells
A series of 25 fractures, the Al-Ahmadi ridge fractures, that were
with low water levels were identified. The status of each identified
mainly oriented north–south were identified from the seismic
well was studied by collecting and analyzing water and rock sam-
images and were further evaluated as potential gas leak sources.
ples. Gas readings were taken at the surface using instruments to
Gas tends to leak out more where surface sediments are thinner,
detect any gas leakage from the wells or their casings.
that is, at the top of the ridge. The Al-Ahmadi ridge fractures were
The gas readings were found to be normal at all three shallow
the primary channels for fluids to penetrate the Dammam forma-
water wells, which indicated the wells were not leaking any gas.
tion and reach the surface (see Figs. 10 and 11).
Another simulation was performed using Petrel softwareÒ to
2.4. Hypothesis four: escape of gas from underground formations locate the exact location of the gas pockets in the formations
beneath Al-Ahmadi beneath Al-Ahmadi. The software also helped to estimate the gas
pockets’ sizes and depths. The simulation results showed the pres-
The previous tested hypotheses could not explain the gas leak- ence of gas in the Dammam formation and under the Rus forma-
ing incidents’ causation. This prompted the consideration of possi- tion, and they were validated by the findings of the earlier
ble gas escape from the underground formations as another seismic studies. The gas was escaping to the topsoil and forming
hypothesis (see Fig. 7). scattered pockets in the Dammam formation and surface sediment
This part of the investigation of the Al-Ahmadi gas leak events (see Fig. 12).
was faced with a significant challenge. There was no data about
2.4.2. Al-Ahmadi near-surface profile and physical properties
After finding the gas pockets in the Dammam formation and
surface soil, additional studies were conducted to determine why
the pockets formed there and how the natural gas leaked through
them.
Al-Ahmadi’s shallow sub-surface has two parts, the quaternary
sediment and the Dammam formation. The quaternary sediment
(or surface soil) extends from the surface to about nine meters
deep, and the Dammam formation ranges from nine to about
200 m deep (Mukhopadhyay et al., 1996). The surface soil is arid
and brittle (Alsharhan et al., 2001). It receives relatively little
annual rainfall. It is primarily sand (Abdul et al., 2002). The
Dammam formation is composed of sand and rock.
An earlier study of the soil’s uppermost five meters was exam-
Fig. 7. FTA for underground possibility of gas leakage. ined to determine whether natural gas could leak through the soil.
K. Alkhaledi et al. / Safety Science 79 (2015) 184–192 189
Fig. 8. Seismic surfaces showing the relative concentrations of natural gas and underground formations.
Al-Ahmadi Ridge
NTF
The dry bulk density of a soil is inversely related to the porosity
of the soil (Buckman et al., 1960). The bulk density increases with
N
depth because deeper subsurface layers have more compaction
STF
caused by the weight of the above layers (Saxton et al., 1986)
(see Fig. 13). Al-Ahmadi’s surface soil has a high bulk density with
Dammam an average of 1.6 gm/cm 3 (Alsarawi et al., 1998).
Natural Gas Permeability is a measure of how well a porous medium trans-
Rus
mits a fluid. The permeability values of Al-Ahmadi’s soil were
found to range from 1.6 106 to 11.7 106 m/s, which are moder-
Radhuma ate values. The permeability values decrease with greater depth in
Al-Ahmadi’s surface soil (see Fig. 13).
The hydraulic conductivity of the soil is a measure of the ease
with which fluid moves through the soil, and it depends on the per-
meability of the soil and the fluid’s viscosity. Alsarawi et al. (1998)
Fig. 9. The Al-Ahmadi ridge zone with north and south tank farms.
found that the uppermost part of Al-Ahmadi’s soil has a high
hydraulic conductivity (3.7 m/s), and that the hydraulic conductiv-
ity decreases with increasing depth (see Fig. 13). That means that
Bulk density is the mass of many particles of a material divided fluid, including gas, moves much more easily through the upper
by their total volume (i.e., the mass of a unit volume of dry soil). part of the soil than through the lower layers.
Fig. 11. A 2D Seismic view showing fault profile through the Al-Ahmadi formations.
Gas
Pockets
Surface
Soil
Natural
Gas
Dammam
Formation
Fig. 12. 3D Cross-section map showing gas migration to Dammam formation and gas pockets.
Fig. 13. Relationship between Al-Ahmadi’s soil permeability, bulk density, and hydraulic conductivity and depth.
K. Alkhaledi et al. / Safety Science 79 (2015) 184–192 191
the gas entered the wells (see Fig. 15). Gas readings were taken
using gas monitoring instruments (GMI), and soil samples were
Pockets collected at approximately one-meter intervals.
Fracture
The observation wells results helped locating the area of high
gas level. The high gas region extended from north to south
Al-Ahmadi over the Al-Ahmadi ridge zone.
Gas samples were collected and analyzed for composition, and
the data was compared with KOC gas data from the Magwa,
Burgan, and Al-Ahmadi oil fields, which are located below
Al-Ahmadi town. The comparison results showed that the gas type
collected from the shallow observation wells was similar to the gas
type from those oil fields. It was concluded that the source of the
leaking gas was the Magwa, Burgan, and Al-Ahmadi reservoirs.
Fig. 14. Evidence of pockets and cavities the Dammam formation.
3. Discussion
A field visit was made to a quarry near Al-Ahmadi to more clo- Investigating the possible causes of the Al-Ahmadi gas leak inci-
sely examine the Dammam formation. It was found to be porous, dents was a challenging task because they were recent incidents,
permeable, and fractured. This layer can hold gas pockets, facilitate and there were insufficient precedents for analysis methodology.
the movement of gas, and permit gas to escape to the surface soil It was suspected that the potential source of the gas leak could
through fractures (see Fig. 14). be one or a combination of the following: the gas pipe network,
It can be concluded that the Dammam formation and the sur- the sewer system, the wells and boreholes in and surrounding
face soil are good places for gas to collect after it leaks upward Al-Ahmadi, and underground geological formations.
from deeper reservoirs. They are poor gas barriers that permitted A structured fault tree analysis was used to determine the root
natural gas to form pockets and then escape through them to the cause of the problem. The first three suspected sources were ruled
surface air. out after investigation. Site inspections, laboratory results, and 2D
and 3D seismic data collection helped to investigate the incidents.
2.4.3. Drilling wells Testing tools and technologies allowed different scenarios to be
Two additional testing methods were used to better understand modeled and reconciled with the available evidence. All laboratory
the gas occurrence at shallow subsurface levels. results showed that the natural gas type of the samples taken from
The first method included drilling four wells to a depth of tested wells was similar to the type found in the reservoirs beneath
approximately 50 m (not reaching the Rus cap-rock) to collect the Al-Ahmadi cap-rock, indicating that the samples’ original
empirical geological data. Gas, clay, and rock samples were taken source was those reservoirs.
from the four wells, evaluated, and analyzed. It was determined The natural gas gradually migrated (over a long period of time)
that hydrocarbon gas exists in the Dammam formation layer. Gas from deep hydrocarbon reservoirs upwards through cap-rock frac-
measurements between the surface and cap-rock layers obtained tures. This agrees with the results of Carman’s study (1996), which
from the wells showed different gas readings at different depths. showed that the Burgan oil reservoir structure was an anticlinal
The second testing method included drilling 90 pairs of obser- dome with 30 fractures.
vation wells, of Type A and Type B, throughout Al-Ahmadi. Type The Dammam formation and the surface soil are porous and
A wells were about 15 cm in diameter, drilled to four meters deep, permeable, which allowed the natural gas to accumulate in cavities
and then secured by perforated PVC pipe and gravel; Type B wells and pockets within them. Some of the natural gas then leaked into
were about 10 cm in diameter with slotted pipe, drilled to ten the air around the KOC’s north houses and Al-Ahmadi’s govern-
meters deep, and secured with gravel pack. The ten-meter wells ment houses. Where the airborne gas encountered any source of
were cased in the first four meters, and then the other six meters ignition at the explosion locations, the fire triangle (fuel, oxygen,
were perforated to let the gas enter below the four-meter mark. and heat) would have been completed, resulting in those explo-
Type A wells were compared with Type B wells to see at what level sions (De Haan et al., 2011).
15 cm Solid Pipe
4m
Type B Well
10 m.
6m
Fig. 15. Typical arrangement of observation wells (Type A and B) at each selected location.
192 K. Alkhaledi et al. / Safety Science 79 (2015) 184–192
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