Reliance Industries - India's US$2tn Clean Energy Opportunity

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of HITESH SHAH at GILDER GAGNON HOWE & CO
LLC.
13 June 2023
Price Target Change
Neil Beveridge, Ph.D.
+852 2918 5741
Asia-Pacific Oil & Gas neil.beveridge@bernstein.com
Reliance Industries Ltd Rahul Malhotra

+65 6230 2344
Rating rahul.malhotra@bernstein.com
Outperform Brian Ho, CFA

+852 2918 5772
Price Target
brian.ho@bernstein.com
RIL.IN 3,040.00 INR (3,030.00 OLD)

Sanjit Shinde
RIGD.LI 91.20 USD (90.90 OLD) +91 226 842 1469
Sanjit.Shinde@bernstein.com
Reliance Industries: India's US$2tn clean energy opportunity

Clean energy (solar, battery, electrolyzers, and fuel cells) represents a new growth
Close Date 9-Jun-2023
pillar for Reliance with US$2tn in investment in India through 2050. India targets solar
RIL.IN Close Price (INR) 2,481.95
capacity of 280GW and 5 million tonnes of green H2 production by 2030. We expect EV
Price Target (INR) 3,040.00
penetration will reach 5% for PV and CV and 21% for two-wheelers. Clean energy could
Upside/(Downside) 22%
have a TAM of $30bn in 2030 ($10bn currently). By 2050, we estimate the TAM could reach
52-Week Range 2,790.05/2,180.00
$200bn and cumulative spending of $2tn.
ASIAX 1,172.15
FYE Mar
We believe the clean energy business to be worth INR200/share today but with
Div Yield 0.3%
plenty of scope for expansion overtime. RIL could potentially achieve c. $10bn of revenue
Market Cap (INR) (B) 16,792.79
from New Energy business in 2030 which represents 40% of the TAM. By 2030, we estimate
EV (INR) (B) 19,239.95
RIL could capture 60%, 30% and 20% of solar, battery and hydrogen TAM respectively. RIL
plans to have 100GW of installed solar capacity by 2030 which is c.35% of India's targeted
capacity of 280GW but represents 50% incremental share. Performance YTD 1M 6M 12M
Absolute (%) (2.6) (0.6) (4.9) (8.6)
O2C continues to take benefit from low costs Russian crude feedstock while product ASIAX (%) 1.8 1.6 0.5 (6.9)
prices remain strong. Urals is trading at a 20-25% discount to Dubai oil price, yielding an Relative (%) (4.3) (2.2) (5.4) (1.6)
additional $6-8/bbl spread on refining margins. We estimate O2C can achieve FY24 EBITDA
of INR630bn (+1% y-o-y) which is in line with market estimates. Key risk ahead is a recession Price Performance, 1YR
that leads to a sharp decline in margins next year. INR3000 1400
INR2800 1300
Funding is not an issue for Reliance given the current balance sheet and FCF outlook.
INR2600 1200
Reliance targets to fund future capex from OCF and maintain net debt to EBITDA of less than
INR2400 1100
1x (0.6x in FY23). FCF will turn positive in FY24 and reach INR1tn by FY27.
INR2200 1000
We rate Reliance Industries Outperform with a PT of INR3,040 with c.22% upside 06/22 09/22 12/22 03/23 06/23
potential. Our FY24 EPS of INR132 is 13% above consensus estimates. RIL.IN ASIAX
Investment Implications
We rate Reliance Industries OP with a PT of INR3,040.
Reported EPS F23A F24E F25E Financials F23A F24E F25E CAGR Valuation Metrics F23A F24E F25E
RIL.IN (INR) 98.59 131.68 152.32 EBITDA (M) 1,503* 1,654* 1,906* 12.6% Reported P/E (x) 25.2 18.8 16.3
OLD -- 128.68 155.37 Net Earnings (M) 667,020 890,838 1,030* 24.3% EV/EBITDA (x) 12.8 11.6 10.1
RIGD.LI (USD) 2.96 3.95 4.57 ROCE (%) 5.8 6.4 6.8 -- P/CFO (x) 14.6 10.9 9.6
OLD -- 3.86 4.66 Net Debt/EBITDA (x) 0.61 0.49 0.37 (21.9)% Div Yield (%) 0.3 0.3 0.4
ASIAX 87.11 102.67 123.12 FCF Yield (%) (1.55) 1.42 2.90
EM 89.80 102.52 121.50 EV/CE (x) 2.1 1.9 1.7
*Values shown in billions;
See the Disclosure Appendix of this report for required disclosures, analyst certifications and other www.bernsteinresearch.com
important information.
First Published: 12 Jun 2023 20:30 UTC Completion Date: 12 Jun 2023 07:33 UTC
DETAILS
In this note, we provide an update on Reliance's O2C and New Energy businesses. For detailed views of Reliance's digital and
retail business segments, please see the notes below:
May 25, 2023: The Long View : India eCommerce - A 150 Bn Dollar market. Three players. One Disruptive Playbook
May 16, 2023: Reliance Jio - On the path to 500 Mn subscribers
May 9, 2023: Reliance Retail : Market leader in India retail - a deep dive
Following a review of Reliance's business segments, we have updated the company's financials and valuation incorporating our
latest views of each segment profitability, growth and capex profile.
Based on our estimates, we believe Reliance EBITDA will grow from INR1.5tn in FY23 to INR2.4tn in FY27 (+13% CAGR) mainly
through the growth in new energy, digital and retail, while the O2C will see earnings remain stable with refining and petchem
margins regressing to the longer term average.
EXHIBIT 1: Reliance EBITDA will grow to INR2.4tn (+13% CAGR) by FY27 driven by new energy, digital and retail
2,500 2,354
2,201
2,000 1,906
1,654
EBITDA, INRbn
1,455
1,500
1,200
864 915 853

1,000
684
479 483
500 388 365 349 368 396
241 241 308
E&P Petrochemical Refining Digital Retail New Energy Others
Source: Company report, Bernstein estimates and analysis
NEW ENERGY
Decarbonizing world energy is without question the biggest challenge facing the world today. It will also be one of the biggest
thematic investment over the next thirty years. Almost every company in the world will be impacted by the enormous investment
required to reach net zero and the disruption of carbon intensive industries. But exactly how much capital will be required to
reach net zero?
Based on our analysis, we estimate the New Energy business (Solar, battery, electrolyzers, and fuel cells) will have a TAM of
$30bn in 2030 and $200bn by 2050 within India domestically. Cumulatively, this amounts to $2tn of spending by 2050. Based
on our assumptions and company plans for the New Energy business, we estimate Reliance can achieve c.$10bn of revenue in
2030 which represents 40% of the TAM.
ASIA-PACIFIC OIL & GAS BERNSTEIN 2

LLC. Neil Beveridge, Ph.D. +852 2918 5741 neil.beveridge@bernstein.com 13 June 2023
EXHIBIT 2: We estimate new energy (Solar, battery, electrolyzers and fuel cells) will reach an annual TAM of $30bn
in 2030 and $200bn by 2050. Cumulative spending will reach $2tn by 2050
New Energy Business TAM ($bn)

220 2,200
200 2,000
180 1,800
Cumulative TAM ($bn)

160 1,600
Annual TAM ($bn)
140 1,400
120 1,200
100 1,000
80 800
60 600
40 400
20 200
0 0
Solar Battery - ESS Battery - Transport Electrolyzer Fuel Cells Cumulative
Source: BP, Bloomberg, SNE, Bernstein estimates and analysis
Among the growth opportunities being pursued by Reliance, E-Commerce and Life Services (food delivery, travel, and edtech)
have the largest TAM in the next few years but New Energy is expected to be a key growth engine over the next 30 years with
the TAM expected to increase 20x by 2050 from current TAM of about $10bn.
EXHIBIT 3: India TAM comparison. New Energy TAM is expected to increase 20x by 2050 from current TAM of about
$10bn
E-Commerce 133
Life Services 61
Entertainment 21
New Energy 19 206
Digital Advertising 12
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220

TAM ($bn)
2025 TAM 2050 TAM
Source: Company data, Bernstein estimates and analysis
How much could the New Energy business be worth to Reliance? This is highly dependent on Reliance ability to execute and
grow the New Energy business. Based on a 2050 TAM of US$206bn, we can see a range of valuation based on Reliance's
market share and valuation multiples (P/S) below. Assuming a 1.0-1.5x multiple which seems to be an appropriate valuation
level for profitable ex-growth companies in the energy sector and a large market share of the India market (c.50% range), then
we can see Reliance New Energy valued in the range of INR100-200/sh after discounting the valuation back to today. As we

reach 2050, Reliance New Energy would be valued in c.INR1,200-2,200/sh or more than 10x of current valuation.
EXHIBIT 4: How much could New Energy business be worth? Based on 2050 TAM, valuation could be INR100-200/
sh today and worth INR1,200-2,200/sh by 2050
2050 TAM (US$bn) 206
Undisc. Valuation ($bn) M/S (2050)

10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
P/S 0.25 5 10 15 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
0.50 10 21 31 41 51 62 72 82 93 103
0.75 15 31 46 62 77 93 108 124 139 154
1.00 21 41 62 82 103 124 144 165 185 206
1.25 26 51 77 103 129 154 180 206 232 257
1.50 31 62 93 124 154 185 216 247 278 309
1.75 36 72 108 144 180 216 252 288 324 360
2.00 41 82 124 165 206 247 288 329 371 412
Undisc. Valuation (INR/sh) M/S (2050)

10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
P/S 0.25 61 122 183 245 306 367 428 489 550 611
0.50 122 245 367 489 611 734 856 978 1,101 1,223
0.75 183 367 550 734 917 1,101 1,284 1,468 1,651 1,834
1.00 245 489 734 978 1,223 1,468 1,712 1,957 2,201 2,446
1.25 306 611 917 1,223 1,529 1,834 2,140 2,446 2,752 3,057
1.50 367 734 1,101 1,468 1,834 2,201 2,568 2,935 3,302 3,669
1.75 428 856 1,284 1,712 2,140 2,568 2,996 3,424 3,852 4,280
2.00 489 978 1,468 1,957 2,446 2,935 3,424 3,914 4,403 4,892
Disc. Valuation (INR/sh) M/S (2050)

10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
P/S 0.25 5 11 16 21 26 32 37 42 47 53
0.50 11 21 32 42 53 63 74 84 95 105
0.75 16 32 47 63 79 95 111 127 142 158
1.00 21 42 63 84 105 127 148 169 190 211
1.25 26 53 79 105 132 158 185 211 237 264
1.50 32 63 95 127 158 190 222 253 285 316
1.75 37 74 111 148 185 222 258 295 332 369
2.00 42 84 127 169 211 253 295 338 380 422
Source: Bernstein estimates and analysis
Based on our assumptions, we estimate RIL can achieve around $10-15bn of revenue from New Energy business in 2030
which represents roughly 40% of the TAM. Our assumptions for the New Energy business TAM are aligned with current
domestic energy policies and our expectation of India's EV adoption in India. Key input and output assumptions for our TAM
calculation are shown in Exhibit 5 with details below:
• Solar: The India government has set a target of 500GW of installed renewable energy by 2030. Of which, solar is expected
to account for the largest share with 280GW of solar power installed by 2030. As of February 2023, India had 65GW of solar
power. This implies 30GW of annual installations to reach the target.
• Batteries: To integrate interruptible renewable energy (wind and solar), we estimate India will need 88GWh of cumulative
ESS capacity by 2030 which represents 7% of solar and wind capacity installed. By 2050, we expect ESS capacity will reach
15% of total installed wind and solar capacity. This is aligned with industry developments globally for ESS penetration to help
absorb peak output form solar PV during the day and discharge to help electricity demand peaks in the evening.
• For transport, India government has an EV sales penetration target of 30% for private cars, 70% for commercial vehicles and
80% for two- and three-wheelers by 2030. With India EV penetration at only 1% today, we think this will take longer given
lack of charging infrastructure, lack of affordable EV options and no established battery supply chain. Two-wheelers will see
stronger adoption than other vehicles reaching above 20% in 2030 and 75% by 2040 in our view. For PV and CV, we believe
EV penetration will be more modest at around 5% by 2030 based on current S-curve adoption.
• Hydrogen: India sets target of 5 million tonnes of annual green hydrogen production by 2030. Based on 45% load factor
and 63% efficiency, we expect 81GW of cumulative electrolyzer capacity is required to generate 5 million tonnes of green

H2. The Indian government wants to use green hydrogen to replace grey hydrogen, produced using gas, as it moves to
decarbonise sectors such as oil and fertilisers.
EXHIBIT 5: India's New Energy TAM (Solar + Battery + Hydrogen) could reach $30bn in 2030 with Reliance revenue
estimated to reach $13bn (42% market share)
New Energy Business TAM CAGR
Year 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020-30 2020-50
Solar
Solar Demand TWh 57 327 859 2,014
Solar Demand % of Energy Mix % 1% 6% 14% 27%
Cumulative Solar Capacity GW 49 280 735 1,724
Solar Capacity Costs $/kW 566 435 345 290
Annual Solar TAM $bn 6 13 23 39 9% 7%
Battery - ESS
Cumulative ESS Capacity GWh 4 88 369 1,250
% of Solar and Wind Capacity % 2% 7% 11% 15%
Annual ESS Demand GWh 1 16 68 245
ESS Battery Price $/kWh 437 180 135 135
Annual ESS TAM $bn 0 3 9 33 21% 15%
Battery - Transport
PV + CV Sales Penetration % 0% 5% 25% 74%
Two-wheelers Sales Penetration % 1% 21% 76% 100%
Annual xEV Battery Demand GWh 0 36 284 797
xEV Battery Price $/kWh 306 126 95 95
Annual xEV TAM $bn 0 5 27 75 53% 26%
Hydrogen
Green H2 Demand MT 0 5 20 60
Cumulative Electrolyzer Capacity GW 0 81 322 966
Electrolyzer Costs $/kW 700 320 260 227
Annual Electrolyzer TAM $bn 0 9 11 23 n.a. n.a.
Annual Fuel Cell TAM $bn 0 0 6 36 59% 39%
Total New Energy Business TAM $bn 6 30 76 206 17% 12%
Reliance New Energy Revenue (Bern.) $bn 0 13

Reliance Market Share (Bern.) % 0% 42%
Source: BP, Bloomberg, SNE, Bernstein estimates and analysis
Below we show the projected TAM in 2030 versus Reliance revenue for each sub-segment. For the New Energy business, we
estimate Reliance will start to recognize revenue in FY25 with start up of solar and battery plants in 2024. Overall, solar will
have the largest TAM of $13bn by 2030 followed by hydrogen at $10bn and batteries at $7bn. We estimate Reliance can obtain
$8bn of revenue from solar by 2030. For batteries, Reliance could potentially capture a large part of the TAM starting in 2025+
and reach $3bn by 2030. Hydrogen has potentially more opportunities with only $2bn by 2030. Based on market TAM of $30bn
in 2030, we estimate RIL can capture $13bn of revenue over the same period or 42% of the market TAM.

EXHIBIT 6: RIL can capture 64% of EXHIBIT 7: RIL can capture 34% of EXHIBIT 8: RIL can capture 19% of
solar 2030 TAM ($13bn) battery 2030 TAM ($7bn) hydrogen 2030 TAM ($10bn)
Solar (2030) Battery (2030) Hydrogen (2030)

15 RIL 64% 15 15
13
M/S
12 12 12
10
8 RIL 34% RIL 19%
9 9 7 9
M/S M/S
$bn
$bn
$bn
6 6 6
3
3 3 3 2
0 0 0
TAM Reliance TAM Reliance TAM Reliance
Revenue Revenue Revenue
Source: Company data, Bernstein estimates and Source: Company data, Bernstein estimates and Source: Company data, Bernstein estimates and
analysis analysis analysis
For solar, we expect RIL can reach 100GW of installation by 2030 which is 36% of total 2030 India solar capacity of 280GW.
For batteries, Reliance could also achieve similar market share of 36% with battery capacity of 50GWh versus expected battery
capacity of 139GWh in 2030. For hydrogen, we expect Reliance can capture about 19% of the market with 16GW of cumulative
electrolyzer capacity by 2030 versus our expected TAM of 81GW.
EXHIBIT 9: Reliance market share of India 2030 new energy demand
Market Share (2030) India Reliance RIL M/S

Cumulative Installed Solar Capacity GW 280 100 36%
Cumulative Battery Manuf. Capacity GWh 139 50 36%
Cumulative Installed Electrolyzer Capacity GW 81 16 19%
EXHIBIT 10: Reliance has 36% market EXHIBIT 11: Reliance has 36% EXHIBIT 12: Reliance has 19% market
share of India's 2030 installed solar market share of total India battery share of India's 2030 installed
capacity manufacturing capacity electrolyzer capacity
Solar (2030 Installed Battery (2030 Manufacturing Electrolyzer (2030 Installed

Capacity) Capacity) Electrolyzer)
Reliance
19%
Reliance Reliance
36% 36%
Other Other
64% 64%
Other
81%
Source: Company data, Bernstein estimates and Source: Company data, Bernstein estimates and Source: Company data, Bernstein estimates and
analysis analysis analysis

Reliance is building a green energy business to supply the equipment India will need for its green energy revolution. This project
is deeply strategic for India given the trillions of dollars which will be spent decarbonizing energy over the next 30-50 years.
Moreover, Reliance has committed to being net zero by 2035, which is earlier than any other energy company in the region.
While Reliance has the balance sheet and relationships, they lack the technology and manufacturing know-how which will be
essential for success. While it is easy to dismiss their ability to pull it off, Reliance has shown they can move into new verticals
successfully. We think the same is true here. Reliance however cannot afford to spend a year in R&D and instead have to make
strategic investments in key companies which will enable them to start building capacity in India.
Overall, Reliance is building a fully integrated end-to-end renewables energy ecosystem for customers through solar, batteries
and hydrogen. No other energy company is investing across the entire new energy value chain but if Reliance can pull this off then
the value creation and earnings potential will be substantial.
EXHIBIT 13: Reliance has acquired the technology for manufacturing solar PV, electrolyzer and batteries as well as
EPC
Note: Blue boxes are Reliance operations. Red texts are Reliance's long-term new energy targets
Source: Company, Bernstein analysis
The biggest risk for investors is that Reliance has limited expertise in the technology required for batteries, fuel cells, solar PV
or electrolyzers. This will have to be acquired through investments or partnerships with key technology leaders. It also has no
experience in mass manufacturing of new energy equipments. But then again, Reliance had no expertise in telecoms or retail
before it entered these industries. Reliance is not the only company from the chemical or refining industry to make the transition
into new energy. LG Chem and SK Innovation, both with backgrounds in refining and petrochemicals, are now amongst the largest
battery makers in the world in terms of capacity. To be successful organically would require decades of investment in R&D, which
is not the approach the company is likely to take. Instead, Reliance is making partnerships with industry players, although it is
somewhat a surprise that the partnerships have not been with some of the industry leaders particularly for batteries and hydrogen.

EXHIBIT 14: Reliance has invested over $1.5bn across new energy partnerships and acquisitions since announcing
its New Energy investment plans in June last year
Date Announcment Country Costs ($M) Sector Reliance plans
5-Mar-22 Acquired Netherlands 61 Battery - Acquired Lithium Werks which manufacturs LFP batteries used in EVs. Assets
Lithium Werks (LFP) acquired include 219 patents and manufacturing facility in China.
- The combination of Lithium Werks with Reliance’s recently announced acquisition of
Faradion Limited, a global leader in sodium-ion cell chemistry, further strengthens
Reliance’s technology portfolio and allows Reliance to leverage both one of the world’s
leading portfolio of LFP patents and a senior management team with vast experience of
innovation in cell chemistry, custom modules, packing, and building large scale battery
manufacturing facility.
31-Dec-21 Acquired UK 123 Battery -Reliance will use Faradion’s sodium-ion technology at its proposed fully integrated
Faradion (Sodium- energy storage giga-factory as part of the Dhirubhai Ambani Green energy giga Complex
ion) project at Jamnagar in western India
12-Oct-21 Partnership Denmark n.a. Electrolyzer - Signed a cooperating agreement for technology development, and manufacturing of
with Stiesdal and wind Stiesdal's HydroGen Electrolyzers in India.
- In partnership with Stiesdal, RIL will strive to achieve the stated goal of offering
Hydrogen energy under $1/kg in 1 decade – the 1-1-1 target for Green Hydrogen
- Collaboration to develop technolgoies in offshore wind, fuel cells for conversion of
hydrogen to electricity for mobility and electricity generation, long durating energy
storage and production of carbon negative fuels
12-Oct-21 Investment in Germany 29 Solar - Both companies have also entered into an India Strategic Partnership Agreement
NexWafe providing for joint technology development and commercialization, at scale, of high-
GmbH efficiency monocrystalline “green solar wafers. Reliance, through this partnership, will
secure access to NexWafe’s proprietary technology and plans to build large-scale wafer
manufacturing facilities in India using the NexWafe processes and technology. NexWafe
is developing and producing monocrystalline silicon wafers grown directly from
inexpensive raw materials, going directly from the gas phase to finished wafers.
10-Oct-21 Acquired 100% Norway 771 Solar - 10GW installed to date with 3 manufacturing plants currently (1.8GW): 2 in Norway for
of REC Solar solar grade polysilicon and 1 in Singapore for PV cells and modules. Planned expansion
Holdings includes 2-3GW cells and module capacity in Singapore, brand new 2GW cells and
module unit in France and 1GW modules plant in the US
- In India, Reliance plans to use REC's leading technology in their fully integrated,
metallic Silicon to PV panel manufacturing giga factory at Jamnagar, initially targeting
4GW per annum and eventually growing to 10GW per annum
- A global platform to expand green energy markets globally including US, Europe,
Australia and elsewhere in Asia
- Key enabler of Reliance goal of reaching 100GW of reneable energy by 2030
10-Oct-21 Acquired 40% India 379 Solar - Sterling & Wilson Solar is a leading solar EPC solutions provider executing over 11GW
of Sterling & of solar projects globally. With over 3000 teams and presence across 24 countries, the
Wilson Solar company provides a range of solar energy turnkey soslutions including design,
Ltd procurement, construction, project management. The partnership will give Reliance
access to the talent, engineering and project management skills in the solar space
required to execute on its green energy plans
10-Aug-21 Investment in U.S. 50 Battery - Develop technology for long-duration energy storage applications (4-24 hours) from
Ambri (liquid 10MWh to over 2GWh. The company manufacture liquid metal battery (calcium and
metal) antimony electrode-based cells) in a containerised systems that are targeted to last for
20 years with minimal degradation. The batteries will be used for grid power energy
shifting applications. Company currently securing customers for large-scale projects with
commercial operation starting in 2023.
- In discussions to develop large-scale battery manufacturing facility in India
Source: Company data, Bernstein analysis
Below we show the detailed financial assumptions of the New Energy Business. At Reliance's 44th AGM in June 2021, the company
announced its plan to spend INR750bn ($10bn) over the next 3 years in a 'New Energy' business. This is in addition to what
the company is spending for the rest of the business including ongoing expansion for retail, ecommerce and telecom which is
estimated at $25bn over the next 3 years. Roughly US$8bn will be spent on manufacturing capacity and a further US$2bn will be
spent investing across the value chain and technology. The split of the capex is unclear between each of the sub-sectors, although
we suspect that solar and PV will account for the bulk of the capex given the greater maturity of these industries. Ultimately,
Reliance plans to offer a fully integrated end-to-end renewables energy ecosystem to customers through solar, batteries and
hydrogen.
Over the next 3 years, Reliance will spend INR600bn to construct four “giga factories” to make integrated solar PV modules,
electrolyzers, fuel cells and batteries to store energy from the grid. The site of these plants will be located at the new 5,000 acres
Green Energy Giga Complex in Jamnagar. An additional INR150bn will be used for investments across the value chain, technology,
and partnerships for the new energy business.

Reliance provided few details on specific targets. For solar, Reliance is planning to enter the solar manufacturing and generation
with a target of 100GW of solar energy by 2030. Reliance will have integrated manufacturing starting from raw silica and
polysilicon to ingot, wafers to finished cells and modules. The target capacity is 20GW by 2026. For batteries, Reliance is looking
to build large-scale grid batteries and will collaborate with global leaders on the technology. The first plant will start up in 2023/24
and scale up to 50GWh by 2027. On hydrogen, Reliance will build and install electrolyzers to produce green hydrogen which can
be used for transport and stationary power applications through its self-produced fuel cells. While there is no breakdown of the
capex to be spent Exhibit 15 shows what Reliance could achieve in terms of net capacity based on current plant costs.
Our assumptions for the New Energy business are follow:
• Solar: We assume Reliance will construct 20GW of integrated solar capacity by mid-decade for USD2.4bn or INR180bn
based on a unit cost of $180M/GW. Our capacity expectation is in line with the company's target to achieve 100GW of self-
produced solar capacity by 2030. We also assume an ASP of $490/kW and an EBIT margin of 12% by FY27 which are in line
with industry averages.
• Batteries: We assume Reliance will construct 50GWh of battery capacity (net to company) by mid-decade for USD5.0bn
or INR372bn based on a unit cost of $100M/GWh. For context, a 50GWh battery plant can produce 830k BEV passenger
vehicles (assuming 60kWh/vehicle) which is 20% of current India's passenger vehicle sales of 4M units. In terms of pricing,
we assume an ASP of $180/kWh in FY27 which is the expected average industry price for energy storage and EV batteries
in the domestic market. Our EBIT margin of 10% is in line with global battery makers' normalized margins.
• Electrolyzer: We assume Reliance will construct 3GW of electrolyzer capacity (net to company) by mid-decade for
USD0.6bn or INR45bn based on a unit cost of $200M/GW. Our ASP of $345/kW is based on expected average global
electrolyzer prices. Our EBIT margin of 15% is in line with industry average.
• Fuel Cell: We assume Reliance will construct 2GW of fuel cell capacity (net to company) by mid-decade for USD0.4bn or
INR30bn based on a unit cost of $200M/GW. For context, 2.5GW of fuel cell capacity can produce 10.8k medium to heavy-
duty commercial vehicles (assuming 230kw/vehicle) or 19.2k light duty commercial vehicles (assuming 130kw/vehicle).
Given that there's currently no fuel cell sales in India, we have assumed a blend of global ASP for stationary power and
fuel cells for trucking which equates to $1,251/kW in FY27. Our EBIT margin of 15% is in line with global fuel cell makers'
normalized margins.

EXHIBIT 15: Our assumptions for Reliance's New Energy business
New Energy Solar Batteries Electrolyzer Fuel Cell
Net Capacity 20 50 3 2
Unit GW GWh GW GW
Capex per unit 121 100 200 200
Unit $M/GW $M/GWh $M/GW $M/GW
Capex (USD M) 2,415 5,000 600 400
Capex (INR B) 180 372 45 30
FY27 ASP 490 180 346 1,251

Unit $/kW $/kWh $/kW $/kW
FY27 Revenue (INR B) 551 127 59 15
FY27 EBITDA (INR B) 78 37 10 3
% EBITDA Margin 14% 30% 18% 20%
FY27 EBIT (INR B) 66 13 9 2
% EBIT Margin 12% 10% 15% 15%
Company Plan Targeting solar Reliance will An electrolyser factory A fuel-cell giga factory
manufacturing and manufcature large-scale for production of green for converting hydrogen
generation of 100GW grid batteries to store hydrogen. The into motive and
by 2030. Reliance will intermittent power and electrolyser giga factory stationary power.
have integrated EV batteries. The will manufacture Reliance will look at fuel
manufacturing starting company is focsued on modular electrolysers cell engines to power
from raw silica and LFP, sodium-ion and for captive production of automobiles trucks and
polysilicon to ingot, liquid metal battery green hydrogen for buses. It will also look at
wafers and to finished technology. Reliance domestic use as well as stationary application for
cells and modules. will start up 5GWh of for global sale. Reliance powering data centres,
Reliance is expected to capacity in 2023/24 and will focus on alkaline telecom towers, and
become a large scale up to 50GWh by electrolyzer technology backup generators
exporter of clean solar 2027
energy solutions. 10GW
capacity in 2024 and
ramp up to 20GW by
2026
Source: Company data, Bernstein estimates (all) and analysis

OIL-TO-CHEMICAL
The O2C business has performed exceptionally well in the past year with margins recovering to pre-COVID level driven by low
inventory and supply constraints. The EU embargo on Russian oil has further amplified the shock of a global refined products
shortage and record margins last year. With Russian crude oil struggling to find buyers and Europe short diesel supply, Reliance
has an opportunity to capture significant upside in refining crack spreads under current market dynamics. China's restriction on
oil product exports driven by energy security has also made the near-term supply outlook for refined products extremely tight in
the region. Given current market dynamics, we expect Reliance's GRM will remain strong in FY24. This will likely start to normalize
through the year and into next year with major refining capacity expansions coming online which will help ease supply constraints
in the market.
Longer term, we believe Reliance still has ample room to grow, particularly in petrochemicals. Reliance and Saudi Aramco
mutually determined that it would be beneficial for both parties to terminate the MOU and re-evaluate the proposed investment
in O2C business. Consequently, Reliance's application with NCLT for segregating the O2C business from the RIL group has
been withdrawn. RIL shall continue to be Saudi Aramco’s preferred partner for investments in the private sector in India and will
collaborate with Saudi Aramco & SABIC for investments in Saudi Arabia. Last year, Reliance announced plans expansion to expand
petchem production capacity and investments into new materials out which will increase in phases to 2026.
For FY24, we expect Reliance will deliver O2C EBITDA of INR630bn (+1% y-o-y) which is in line with consensus estimates of
INR631bn. This includes INR380bn of R&M EBITDA and petrochemical EBITDA of INR290bn. Note that our longer-term outlook
on O2C EBITDA is largely in line with historical levels although this excludes any major capacity expansion other than what has
been announced.
EXHIBIT 16: Oil to Chemicals EBITDA outlook. For FY24, we expect Reliance will deliver O2C EBITDA of INR630bn
(+1% y-o-y) which is in line with market expectation
700
600
500
O2C EBITDA (INR bn)
400
300
200
100
Petrochemical EBITDA R&M EBITDA
Note: RIL R&M and petrochemical EBITDA from 3QFY21 (4Q20) are estimated by Bernstein. Reliance has stopped reporting the segments separately at the end of
2QFY21 (3Q20)
PETROCHEMICALS
At the 45th AGM (August 2022), Reliance announced that it will invest INR750bn ($9bn) over the next 5 years in existing and
new facilities to maximize O2C integration and petrochemical value chain to produce high-value chemicals and green materials.
Reliance's two refineries at Jamnagar in currently have the capacity to process about 1.4MMbls/d (70MPTA) of crude.
• On polyester value chain, RIL will build a new 3MMTPA PTA plant and a 1MTPA PET plant at Dahej. Both plants are targeted
for completion by 2026. RIL is also expanding capacity for polyester filament yarn (PFY) and polyester staple fibre (PSF) with
1MMTPA of capacity which will be completed in phases by 2026.

• On Vinyl chain, RIL will more than triple existing capacity by 2026 with 1.5MMTPA of feedstock integrated PVC expansion at
Dahej and Jamnagar by 2026 and other PVC expansions in UAE. With these expansions, Reliance is expected to rank among
the top 5 producers of PVC globally.
• On new materials, RIL will build in phases India’s first carbon fibre plants at Hazira with a capacity of 20,000MTPA based
on acrylonitrile feedstock. The company targets to start production of acrylonitrile production in 2023 and to complete
first phase of carbon fibre plant in 2025. Carbon fibre composites will be used to meet growing demand of light-weight
requirements of mobility and renewable energy.
EXHIBIT 17: RIL O2C expansion will focus on petrochemical value chain and green materials
Value Chain Product Location Completion date MMTPA
Polyester PTA Dahej Complete in phases by 2026 3.0
Polyester PET Dahej Complete in phases by 2026 1.0
Vinyl PVC Dahej and Jamanagar 2026 1.5
Vinyl PVC UAE n.a.
Total additional petrochemical capacity 5.5
New materials Carbon fibre Hazira 2025 0.02
Source: Company data, Bernstein analysis
Based on Reliance's expansion plans, we expect petrochemical production will increase from 39MTPA in FY23 to 45MTPA by
FY27. This implies a growth of 3% CAGR from FY23 to FY27.
EXHIBIT 18: Reliance petrochemical production will increase from 39MTPA in FY23 to 45MTPA in FY27 (3% CAGR)
50,000
Expansion of PTA, PET and PVC plants
45,000
Petchem production (KT)
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Petrochemical segment continues to witness strong margins and production back to pre-COVID levels led by strong recovery
in domestic and regional chemical demand. Historically, RIL's petrochemical margins have tracked closely to the Asia naphtha
cracker margins. Naphtha cracker margins have recovered back to $1000/ton which is back to 2018 high. Prices remain favorable
for MEG, PEX, PE and PP with ongoing recovery although a recession would lead to collapse in margins and oversupply.

EXHIBIT 19: RIL petrochemical EBIT margins compared with Asia Naphtha cracker margin
1,200 160
Petrochemical EBIT (US$/ton)

1,000 140
Naphtha Cracker Margin
120
800
100
600
(US$/ton)
80
400
60
200 40
- 20
1Q2012
2Q2012
3Q2012
4Q2012
1Q2013
2Q2013
3Q2013
4Q2013
1Q2014
2Q2014
3Q2014
4Q2014
1Q2015
2Q2015
3Q2015
4Q2015
1Q2016
2Q2016
3Q2016
4Q2016
1Q2017
2Q2017
3Q2017
4Q2017
1Q2018
2Q2018
3Q2018
4Q2018
1Q2019
2Q2019
3Q2019
4Q2019
1Q2020
2Q2020
3Q2020
4Q2020
1Q2021
2Q2021
3Q2021
4Q2021
1Q2022
2Q2022
3Q2022
4Q2022
1Q2023
2Q2023
Naphtha Cracker Gross Margin RIL Petchem EBIT (USD/ton)
Note: RIL petrochemical EBIT from 3QFY21 (4Q20) are estimated by Bernstein. Reliance has stopped reporting petrochemical separately at the end of 2QFY21
(3Q20)
Source: Company report, Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis
While near term margins remain supportive, a slowdown on consumption driven by slower GDP growth and rising capacity growth
in PX and PTA units in China/US will inevitably add pressure on margins. While we expect higher margins driven by strong economic
activities in FY22+, we do not expect margins will rise back to historical highs given pressure from new capacity.
EXHIBIT 20: RIL petrochemical margin outlook
140
Petchem EBIT margins
120
100
($/tonne)
80
60
40
20
0
Note: RIL petrochemical EBIT from 3QFY21 (4Q20) are estimated by Bernstein. Reliance has stopped reporting petrochemical separately at the end of 2QFY21
(3Q20)
REFINING & MARKETING

We expect Reliance's refining throughput to remain fairly stable at around 71-73MT (1.45MMbls/d) per year over the next few
years. Reliance's Jamnagar refinery is the largest refining hub in the world with processing capacity of 1.24MMbls/d. With the
company capital focused on expansion of its petrochemical and new energy manufacturing hub, we expect refining capacity to
remain relatively stable in the next few years.

EXHIBIT 21: We expect Reliance's refining throughput to remain fairly stable at around 71-73MT (1.45MMbls/d) per
year over the next few years
80
Refined throughput (MT)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
While Reliance (like other Indian refiners) has taken advantage of the discounted crude for lower feedstock costs, refined oil
product prices could also be supported in the near term as impact of Western sanctions and the price cap on Russian crude and
product exports are still playing out. With product exports harder to reroute than crude this potentially adds upward pressure on
overall refining margins in the near term. The key risks for oil and product markets is a recession which could see a collapse in
demand.
EXHIBIT 22: Reliance GRM trade a premium to Singapore Complex Margins. Near term margins remain supported as
product exports may be harder to reroute
24.0
22.0
20.0
18.0
GRM (US$/bbl)
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-20
Jul-21
Jul-22
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
Apr-20
Apr-21
Apr-22
Apr-23
Oct-14
Oct-15
Oct-16
Oct-17
Oct-18
Oct-19
Oct-20
Oct-21
Oct-22
RIL GRM Singapore Complex Margin
Note: RIL GRM from 3QFY21 (4Q20) are estimated by Bernstein. Reliance has stopped reporting GRM at the end of 2QFY21 (3Q20)
Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis
Our outlook on refining profitability is based on current market crack spreads. The futures market can provide insight on refining
margins based on product crack spread now and in the future (Exhibit 23 to Exhibit 28).
Compared to last year, crack spreads have narrowed substantially with less supply tightness for products particularly for middle
distillates. Gasoline crack spreads have fallen from $15/bbl for FY23 to $12/bbl in FY23. Note that current crack spreads based
on futures market are higher than 2019 gasoline cracks at $6.2/bbl due to still tighter supply for gasoline. Diesel cracks increased
to $33/bbl for FY23 although has fallen to $19/bbl in FY24. This remains up from $10/bbl in FY22 and higher than $16/bbl in
2019. Kerosene has also seen crack spread fallen from the high of US$29/bbl in FY23 to $19/bbl for FY24 (compared to $8/
bbl in FY22). Overall product cracks peaked last year but remain at a very strong level driven by solid demand recovery.

EXHIBIT 23: Gasoline crack spread EXHIBIT 24: Diesel crack spread EXHIBIT 25: Kerosene crack spread
18.0 40.0 35.0

16.0 35.0 30.0
14.0 15.3 30.0 33.4 25.0 29.3
12.0 25.0
US$/bbl
US$/bbl
US$/bbl
10.0 11.8 20.0

20.0
8.0 15.0 18.8 19.3
15.0 18.8 19.5
6.0
7.2 10.0 10.0
4.0
2.0 5.0 5.0
0.0 0.0 0.0
FY23 FY24 FY25 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY23 FY24 FY25
Sg gasoline cracks (to Dubai) Sg diesel cracks (to Dubai) Sg kerosene cracks (to Dubai)
Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein analysis Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein analysis Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein analysis
On the other hand, HSFO, LFSO and naphtha cracks are turning more positive on stronger demand after bottoming last year.
EXHIBIT 26: HSFO crack spread EXHIBIT 27: LSFO crack spread EXHIBIT 28: Naphtha crack spread
0.0 10.0 -9.0
-2.0 8.0
8.3 -9.5 -9.7
-4.0 6.0
-10.0 -10.2
US$/bbl
US$/bbl
US$/bbl
-6.0 4.0
4.2
-8.0 -8.8 2.0 -10.5
-10.6
-10.0 0.0 -11.1
-1.8
-11.0
-12.0 -12.9 -2.0
-14.0 -4.0 -11.5

FY23 FY24 FY25 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY23 FY24 FY25
Sg HSFO cracks (to Dubai) Sg LSFO cracks (to Dubai) Sg naphtha cracks (to Dubai)
Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein analysis Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein analysis Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein analysis
Given that Reliance's product slate is largely exposed to gasoline and diesel (60% of its slate based on our estimates), we expect
Reliance refining margins will reach record levels in the next few months. Weak gasoline, diesel and kerosene cracks in FY21
resulted in one of the most challenging years for the refining business. Refining cracks continued to recover in the past two years
but have now surprised to the upside in FY23 with spreads reaching unprecedented levels. This, however, will not last forever.
Additional refining capacity of 1.9MMbls/d is expected to be added in 2023 which will be sufficient to meet demand growth of
1.7MMbls/d which will help normalize margins. If there is a recession in the US, this could mean downside to our current margin
forecasts.
EXHIBIT 29: Reliance's refining margins

US$/bbl Slate 1QF20 2QF20 3QF20 4QF20 1QF21 2QF21 3QF21 4QF21 1QF22 2QF22 3QF22 4QF22 FY20A FY21A FY22A
Crude Spread -100% 4.5 3.3 2.6 2.0 6.6 4.0 2.0 1.7 2.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.6 2.8
Gasoline-Dubai 40% 1.8 2.4 2.7 2.5 -1.3 0.3 0.5 1.4 2.8 3.6 4.3 5.1 2.4 0.2 4.0
Diesel-Dubai 20% 2.6 3.2 3.0 2.8 1.4 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 2.1 2.7 2.9 1.1 1.9
Kerosene-Dubai 10% 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.2 0.2 0.7
HSFO-Dubai 0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
LSFO-Dubai 10% -0.1 0.6 0.6 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.3
Naphtha-Dubai 20% -1.7 -1.5 -1.1 -0.6 -0.8 0.1 0.0 0.2 -0.1 0.4 0.7 -0.1 -1.2 -0.1 0.2
RIL GRM 8.1 9.4 9.2 8.9 6.3 5.7 4.2 5.2 6.6 9.2 11.5 11.9 8.9 5.3 9.8
US$/bbl Slate 1QF23 2QF23 3QF23 4QF23 1QF24 2QF24 3QF24 4QF24 1QF25 2QF24 3QF25 4QF25 FY23A FY24E FY25E
Crude Spread -100% 1.3 4.2 1.6 1.0 5.0 5.0 2.7 1.7 4.0 3.7 3.0 3.0 2.0 3.6 3.4
Gasoline-Dubai 40% 11.0 2.7 1.6 6.0 4.3 4.3 3.1 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.5 5.3 3.6 2.1
Diesel-Dubai 20% 7.6 7.2 7.2 5.3 2.6 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 6.8 3.2 3.7
Kerosene-Dubai 10% 3.2 3.0 3.4 2.6 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 3.1 1.6 1.8
HSFO-Dubai 0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
LSFO-Dubai 10% 0.5 -1.2 -1.1 -0.4 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 -0.5 0.6 0.7
Naphtha-Dubai 20% -2.6 -4.9 -2.6 -1.0 -2.4 -2.5 -2.4 -2.4 -2.5 -2.5 -2.4 -2.4 -2.8 -2.4 -2.5
RIL GRM 20.9 11.0 10.0 13.6 11.1 12.2 9.1 8.1 10.2 9.7 9.0 8.5 13.9 10.1 9.3
Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates (2QF21+) and analysis

Based on our calculation, Reliance gross refining margins (GRM) will average $10/bbl in FY23 from $14/bbl in FY22. This is in
line with GRM of $10/bbl between 2014-19. We expect GRM to fall to $9/bbl in FY25 and onwards as we resume to a more
normalized margin.
EXHIBIT 30: Reliance GRM will average $10/bbl in FY23 from $14/bbl in FY22. We expect GRM to fall to $9/bbl in
FY25 and onwards as we resume to a more normalized margin
24
20
16
12
8
4
0
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
Sep-19
Jan-20
Sep-20
Jan-21
Sep-21
Jan-22
Sep-22
Jan-23
Sep-23
Jan-24
Sep-24
Jan-25
Sep-25
May-15
May-16
May-17
May-18
May-19
May-20
May-21
May-22
May-23
May-24
May-25
RIL Reported GRM RIL GRM (Calculated)
FINANCIAL AND VALUATION

Based on our estimates, we believe Reliance EBITDA will grow from INR1.5tn in FY23 to INR2.4tn in FY27 (+13% CAGR) mainly
through the growth in new energy, digital and retail, while the O2C will see earnings to remain stable with refining and petchem
margins regress to the longer term average.
EXHIBIT 31: Reliance EBITDA will grow to INR2.4tn (+13% CAGR) by FY27 driven by new energy, digital and retail
2,500 2,354
2,201
2,000 1,906
1,654
EBITDA, INRbn
1,455
1,500
1,200
864 915 853

1,000
684
479 483
500 388 365 349 368 396
241 241 308
E&P Petrochemical Refining Digital Retail New Energy Others
We expect the O2C business to be the largest contributor of EBITDA in FY24 at 38%. Beyond FY24, the digital and retail
businesses will grow at a faster rate which will limit the EBITDA contribution from O2C to around 20-30% of total EBITDA. This
still remains significant. Digital will represent 35-40% of total EBITDA over the next 5 years. Retail (offline + online) will grow
from 11% of total EBITDA in FY23 to 17% by FY27. Assuming RIL can execute its new energy business strategy as planned,
then we expect the business can contribute almost 6% of the company's total EBITDA by FY27.

EXHIBIT 32: O2C will be largest contributor of EBITDA in FY24 driven but Digital, Retail and New Energy will drive
long term growth
100%
4% 7% 3% 5% 6%
90% 11% 11% 10% 12% 13%
10% 15%
30% 31% 26% 16%
80% 40% 39% 35% 29% 28% 29% 34% 17% 17%
EBITDA contribution, %
70% 24%
35%
38% 38% 36% 35%
60% 39%
34% 40% 38%
50% 31% 39% 44%
49%
48% 48% 34%
40% 56%
49% 29% 20% 23%
30% 59%
51% 32% 21% 18% 15%
42%
20% 36% 18%
33% 29% 27% 15%
27% 17% 10% 10% 12%
10% 22% 18% 19%
9% 12% 11% 13% 9% 9% 8%
3% 2% 5% 8% 7%
0% 2% 0% 0%
E&P Refining Petrochemical Digital Retail New Energy Others
Annual capex is expected to remain at a relatively high level of INR1.2-1.3tn over the next few years. This assumes expansion in
O2C (INR750bn out to 2027), investments for new energy manufacturing plants (INR750bn out to 2026/27), 5G rollout for Jio
(INR2,000bn out to 2027), and continued expansion in retail.
EXHIBIT 33: We expect Reliance will maintain capex of INR1.2-1.3tn per year for the next few years to fund growth
1,600 1,410
1,400 1,305 1,254
1,180
1,200 1,058 1,001 1,052
936
1,000
INRbn
766 740 765

800 601 634
600 497
279 339 307
400 267 233
164
200
0
FY08A
FY12A
FY13A
FY14A
FY18A
FY19A
FY20A
FY21A
FY25E
FY26E
FY27E
FY09A
FY10A
FY11A
FY15A
FY16A
FY17A
FY22A
FY23A
FY24E
While capex intensity will remain high, we estimate Reliance will generate positive free cash flow (organic) from FY24 onwards.
We expect Reliance will generate free cash flow of INR239bn in FY24 and growing to INR1.0tn bn by FY27.

EXHIBIT 34: We expect Reliance to generate positive FCF from FY24E onwards. FCF to reach INR1.0tn by FY27
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,004
1,000 770
INRbn
488
500 216 239
81 62 105
0
-28 -5 -99 -25
-105 -116 -168
-500 -290 -271 -260
-479
-1,000 -797
FY08A
FY09A
FY10A
FY11A
FY12A
FY13A
FY14A
FY15A
FY16A
FY17A
FY18A
FY19A
FY20A
FY21A
FY22A
FY23A
FY24E
FY25E
FY26E
FY27E
Free cash flow Operating cash flow Capex
Reliance targets to fund future capex from operating cash flow and maintain net debt to EBITDA of less than 1x. Net debt to
EBITDA was 0.6x in FY23. Given the positive FCF, we expect RIL net debt to EBITDA will fall beyond FY23 based on current free
cash flow outlook to -0.1x by FY27.
EXHIBIT 35: Reliance is expected to remain targeted ND/EBITDA of 1x
6.0x 5.35
5.0x
Net debt to EBITDA
4.0x Impact of rights issue and Jio

2.73
2.45 2.37 selldown
3.0x 2.25 2.05
1.61 1.64 1.79
2.0x 1.19
0.92 0.82 RIL target
0.40 0.61 ND/EBITDA <1x
1.0x 0.28
-0.08 -0.09
0.0x
-1.0x
FY08A
FY09A
FY10A
FY11A
FY12A
FY13A
FY14A
FY15A
FY16A
FY17A
FY18A
FY19A
FY20A
FY21A
FY22A
FY23A
FY24E
FY25E
FY26E
Source: Company data, Bernstein estimates and analysis FY27E
Our EPS and CFPS estimates are shown in Exhibit 36 to Exhibit 37. Based on our estimates, we are above consensus for FY24
EPS by 13% and FY24 EPS by 18%. We are also above consensus estimates for operating cash flow.
EXHIBIT 36: EPS estimates – Bernstein vs consensus EXHIBIT 37: CFPS estimates – Bernstein vs consensus
Price deck FY23A FY24E FY25E Price deck FY23A FY24E FY25E
Bernstein Brent Forecast 100 90 96 Bernstein Brent Forecast 100 90 96
BBG Brent Consensus 100 87 85 BBG Brent Consensus 100 87 85
EPS FY23A FY24E FY25E CFPS FY23A FY24E FY25E

Report Currency Report Currency
Reliance 98.6 131.7 152.3 Reliance 170.0 228.3 257.5
Consensus (INR) 116.4 129.4 Consensus (INR) 175.5 202.1
13.1% 17.7% 30.0% 27.4%
Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis

We have updated our Reliance model incorporating our latest outlook for the different business segments. After incorporating
the changes, we have updated our target price for Reliance to INR3,040 (from INR3,030), representing an upside of 22% from
closing price.
EXHIBIT 38: We value Reliance at INR3,040 based on our SOTP valuation
RIL SOTP Valuation

Segment Metric INR bn Multiple USD mln INR bn INR/share
Oil to Chemicals - O2C 58,520 4,704 710
Refining FY25 EBITDA 188 7.0x 16,364 1,316 200
Petrochemicals FY25 EBITDA 403 8.4x 42,156 3,389 510
Digital Services 67,927 5,461 810
R-Jio FY25 EBITDA 701 9.5x 55,276 4,444 660
Telecom option value FY25 Sales 170 9.0x 12,651 1,017 150
Retail 110,982 8,922 1,340
Core FY25 EBITDA 225 30.0x 72,613 5,837 870
Non-core FY25 EBITDA 20 9.0x 1,878 151 30
eCommerce FY25 Sales 690 5.0x 36,492 2,934 440
New Energy FY27 Sales 735 1.9x 16,923 1,360 201
Upstream Oil & Gas FY25 EBITDA 157 3.5x 6,905 555 82
Investments and Others 2,975 239 35
Net Debt (Cash) 11,356 913 135
Total Value 3,040
Current Share Price (09 Jun, 2023) 2,482
% Potential Upside 22%
Valuation method - For refining, petrochemical, and core and non-core retail, we value these segments based on EV/EBITDA of comparable peers. For Reliance Jio,
we value the segment at a net value of US$88bn to RIL based on DCF. For Telecom option value, we value using on EV/sales. For upstream, we value the segment
using a risked NAV at US$75 Brent. For New Energy, we value the segment based on EV/sales for comparable peers. RIL holds 66.5% stake in Reliance Jio and 85%
stake in Reliance Retail.
Source: Company reports, Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis
Our target price for Reliance Industries is based on our SOTP valuation of the company.
• We value Retail based on Offline retail, Non-core retail (Connectivity) and New Commerce/eCommerce. Given the rapid growth
in Offline retail (incl Grocery, Apparel and Electronics) and the operational leverage built into the business, we value Offline retail
at 30x FY25 EV/EBITDA. We value Non-Core retail on a 9x FY25 Ev/EBITDA multiple. We value New Commerce/ eCommerce,
which should benefit from the distribution and scale built in reliance at 5x FY25 EV/Sales multiple.
• We value the refinery and petrochemical segments on 7.0x and 8.4x FY25 EV/EBITDA, respectively, based on comparable peer
multiples. For upstream, we use the NAV method to value Reliance's E&P portfolio assuming a long term US$75 oil price.
• For Digital Services, we value Jio (Telecom Services and Broadband) at US$83 bn gross or US$55 bn net to Reliance. We value
it at 9.5 x FY25 EV/EBITDA multiple (premium to Bharti Telecom at 9.0x). For Telecom option value, we value using EV/ sales.
• For the New Energy business, we used comparable 2026 EV/sales multiples for each segment. For the electrolyzer business
we use 2.0x EV/sales, fuel cell at 1.3x, batteries at 1.6x and solar at 1.8x.

EXHIBIT 39: Our SOTP valuation implies c.22% upside from current share price
3,500 201 35 135

440 3,040
3,000 Current share price
870 30
Valuation, INR/sh
2,500
2,000
150
660
1,500
1,000 510 82
500 200
0
Source: Company reports, Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis
In the last 5 years, Reliance has traded on average at 10.8x on 1-year forward EV/EBITDA. Reliance is trading 11.1x based on
current market multiples and estimates which is lower than long term average although it is near a 12 month low.
EXHIBIT 40: Reliance's historical 1-year forward EV/EBITDA
15x
14x
13x
12x
EV/EBITDA
11x
10x
9x
8x
7x
6x
Dec-19
Dec-20
Dec-21
Dec-22
Jun-18
Dec-18
Jun-20
Jun-21
Jun-22
Sep-18
Jun-19
Sep-19
Sep-20
Sep-21
Jun-23
Sep-22
Mar-19
Mar-20
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-21
Current Average
Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein analysis
Based on our EBITDA estimates (INR1.6tn in FY24 and INR2.4tn in FY27), we expect EV/EBITDA will compress from 11.6x in
FY24 to 8.2x in FY27 which is well the 5-year average.

EXHIBIT 41: EV/EBITDA will compress from 11.6x in FY24 to 8.1x in FY27 (5-year average is 10.8x)
14.0 13.2
11.6
12.0
10.1
FWd EV/EBTIDA
10.0 8.7
8.2
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
2022/23 2023/24E 2024/25E 2025/26E 2026/27E
Fwd EV/EBITDA 5-yr Ave EV/EBTIDA

APPENDIX - FINANCIAL FORECASTS
EXHIBIT 42: Reliance Industries - Financial Exhibit

Reliance Industries FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024E FY2025E FY2026E
(INR Billions) 31-Mar-19 31-Mar-20 31-Mar-21 31-Mar-22 31-Mar-23 31-Mar-24 31-Mar-25 31-Mar-26
RIL Results
Turnover 5,671.4 6,020.7 4,839.2 7,216.3 8,929.4 10,303.5 11,537.1 12,512.0
EBITDA 816.1 852.3 890.3 1191.2 1503.5 1653.9 1905.9 2200.6
PBDIT 871.1 938.7 974.2 1256.9 1546.9 1687.5 1937.4 2235.6
Profit before Tax 496.8 453.4 554.6 841.4 948.0 1172.2 1355.8 1611.2
Taxes (153.9) (137.3) (17.2) (163.0) (207.1) (281.3) (325.4) (386.7)
Net Profit 340.4 355.4 491.3 607.0 667.0 890.8 1030.4 1224.5
EPS (INR/share) 57.44 70.66 75.21 90.85 98.59 131.68 152.32 181.00
Petrochemicals
Revenue 1,687.0 1,409.0 1,240.7 1,952.0 2,337.2 2,440.9 2,582.9 2,575.3
EBIT 315.3 252.6 213.1 294.8 269.9 320.1 342.4 336.1
EBIT Margin 18.7% 17.9% 17.2% 15.1% 11.5% 13.1% 13.3% 13.1%
Refining and Marketing

Revenue 3,205.5 2,990.8 2,085.2 3,777.4 4,746.1 4,601.5 4,739.9 4,533.4
EBIT 193.5 206.5 71.2 161.2 247.8 204.1 128.2 154.9
EBIT Margin 6.0% 6.9% 3.4% 4.3% 5.2% 4.4% 2.7% 3.4%
Oil and Gas

Revenue 26.1 21.7 2.6 63.3 164.6 208.8 215.0 230.7
EBIT (2.2) 2.5 (0.6) 24.6 109.0 121.9 125.9 136.0
EBIT Margin -8.3% 11.5% -24.5% 38.9% 66.2% 58.4% 58.5% 59.0%
Retail
Revenue 1,305.7 1,629.4 1,538.2 1,997.5 2,604.3 3,042.6 3,569.7 4,136.3
EBIT 0.0 0.0 79.9 102.0 139.9 183.4 242.6 304.0
EBIT Margin 0.0% 0.0% 5.2% 5.1% 5.4% 6.0% 6.8% 7.4%
Digital
Revenue 465.1 684.6 902.9 1,001.6 1,197.9 1,183.8 1,466.6 1,717.9
EBIT 87.8 143.6 225.4 251.5 296.8 385.6 527.7 650.9
EBIT Margin 18.9% 21.0% 25.0% 25.1% 24.8% 32.6% 36.0% 37.9%
BALANCE SHEET FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024E FY2025E FY2026E
Total Assets 9679.6 11153.5 12448.8 14220.5 16548.0 17733.2 19001.7 20443.7
Cash & Cash Equivalents 75.1 309.2 785.2 600.7 947.0 1227.0 1705.7 2407.8
Total Liabilities 5747.5 6646.7 4782.5 5460.1 6400.4 6580.6 6979.7 7370.7
Interest Bearing Debt 2719.4 3362.9 2237.6 2663.1 3147.1 3221.8 3498.9 3744.9
Equity 3953.9 4613.5 7994.3 8889.8 9341.6 10181.9 11144.8 12291.1
Key Financial Ratios
Net Debt to Equity 48.9% 50.4% -0.9% 11.0% 9.8% 7.9% 6.3% 2.8%
Cash flow statement FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024E FY2025E FY2026E
Net income 340 355 491 607 667 891 1,030 1,224
Depr., Depl. & Amort. 209 222 266 298 403 421 463 455
Change in working capital (251) 819 (507) 7 (196) - - -
Cash flow from operations 457 981 262 1,107 1,150 1,544 1,742 1,950
Capex (936) (765) (1,058) (1,001) (1,410) (1,305) (1,254) (1,180)
Net investments (54) 141 (473) 3 294 - - -
Cash flow from investing (990) (757) (1,416) (1,101) (912) (1,305) (1,254) (1,180)
Debt issued(repaid) 856 331 (847) 77 367 299 277 246
Dividends (43) (46) (39) (43) (51) (51) (68) (78)
Cash flow from financing activities 559 (25) 1,019 173 105 41 (9) (68)
Free Cash Flow (479) 216 (797) 105 (260) 239 488 770
APPENDIX - VALUATION FOR O2C AND NEW ENERGY

Our valuation of the O2C business is based on FY25 EV/EBITDA multiples of comparable peers. For petrochemical peers, we have
selected the largest global base and specialty chemical companies for comparison with Reliance petrochemical business. We
have also selected key global and regional refining peers for comparison to RIL's refining business. Based on the current market

multiples, we apply a 8.4x EV/EBITDA multiple for the petrochemical segment and 7.0x for the refining and marketing segment.
Assuming the average FY25 EV/EBITDA multiples and our EBITDA estimates for the refining and petrochemical businesses
(INR590bn), we value the O2C business at $58.5bn or INR4.7tn.
EXHIBIT 43: Petrochemical EV/EBITDA for comparable EXHIBIT 44: Refining EV/EBITDA for comparable
companies companies
EV/EBITDA Multiple 2024E 2025E FY25E EV/EBITDA Multiple 2024E 2025E FY25E
Akzo Nobel 11.8 10.7 11.5 Thai Oil 11.0 7.9 10.2
Sabic 9.3 8.1 9.0 Hindustan Petroleum 7.3 7.6 7.4
LyondellBasell 7.5 6.7 7.3 Phillips 66 6.7 6.7 6.7
Dow Chemical Co 7.2 6.5 7.1 Valero Energy 5.5 6.0 5.6
Basf Se 7.1 6.4 6.9 S-Oil 4.9 6.0 5.2
Average 8.6 7.7 8.4 Average 7.1 6.8 7.0
Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein analysis Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein analysis

Exhibit 45 shows some of the key players within each segment of the new energy sector. To value Reliance's new energy business,
we used comparable 2026 EV/sales multiples for each segment. For the electrolyser business we use 2.0x EV/sales, fuel cell at
1.3x, batteries at 1.6x and solar at 1.8x.
EXHIBIT 45: Peer valuation comparisons on 2026 EV/Sales
3.5
3.0
2.5
2026 EV/Sales
Avg. 2.0
2.0 Avg. 1.8
Avg. 1.6
1.5 Avg. 1.3
1.0
0.5
0.0
Doosan Fuel Cell

LONGi Green
NEL
GCL Poly
Bloom Energy
McPhy
First Solar
LGES
CATL
Samsung SDI
Sinohytec
Electrolyser Solar Batteries Fuel Cell
Source: Bloomberg (2025 EV/sales), Bernstein analysis

BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE

9 Jun 2023 TTM Reported EPS Reported P/E (x)
Closing Price Rel.
Ticker Rating Price Target Perf. 2023A 2024E 2025E 2023A 2024E 2025E
RIL.IN O INR 2,481.95 3,040.00 (1.6)% INR 98.59 131.68 152.32 25.2 18.8 16.3
OLD 3,030.00 128.68 155.37
RIGD.LI O USD 60.10 91.20 (9.5)% USD 2.96 3.95 4.57 20.3 15.2 13.2
OLD 90.90 3.86 4.66
ASIAX 1,172.15 87.11 102.67 123.12 13.46 11.42 9.52
EM 1,121.81 89.80 102.52 121.50 12.49 10.94 9.23
PRICE TARGET CHANGE / ESTIMATE CHANGE IN BOLD
O - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage Suspended
Reliance has a March fiscal year-end. 2024E and 2025E EPS represent FY 2024 and FY 2025 estimates respectively
Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.

DISCLOSURE APPENDIX
I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES
Autonomous Research US is a unit within Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC , a broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and
Exchange Commission and a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (www.finra.org) and the Securities Investor
Protection Corporation (see www.sipc.org). When this report contains an analysis of debt securities, such report is intended for
institutional investors and is not subject to all the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research for retail
investors under the FINRA rules.
VALUATION METHODOLOGY
Asia-Pacific Oil & Gas
We value Asian integrated oil companies using a Dividend Discount Model (DDM) and Asian E&P companies using a Discounted
Cash Flow (DCF) Model. Our assumptions for oil price are US$90/bbl in 2023, $96/bbl in 2024, $95/bbl in 2025 and US$75/
bbl in 2026+.
We value Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Saudi Aramco) by applying the Dividend Discount Model (DDM). Our dividend estimates are
based on a long term oil price of US$75/bbl Brent. We assume a terminal growth rate of 1% and discount rate of 8.5% in our
valuation.
For RIL, we use a sum of the parts valuation methodology.
We maintain dual A- and H-share ratings when stocks have both categories of shares listed on the relevant exchange.
We derive our A-share target prices by translating the H-share target prices from HKD to RMB. As a general matter, we then assign
our rating for A-share stocks by comparing this translated price to the current A-share price. Thus there will be situations where
the H-share and A-share ratings on a related security may differ from one another.
Reliance Industries Ltd
We value Reliance Industries using a sum of the parts valuation methodology.
RISKS
Asia-Pacific Oil & Gas
Risks to energy and commodity stocks include economic conditions and commodity price swings. If the global, US or Chinese
economies turn down significantly, global demand growth for commodities could decelerate, putting pressure on prices and thus
on the cash flow of producers. Economic swings also affect refiners. Given the importance of retail investors to the A-share
markets, A-share listed stocks may be relatively more volatile than their H-share listed counterparts. Upside or downside risks
could come from Chinese government policies as China looks to control the rate of growth of its economy in general, or capital
markets in particular. These policies may manifest in market rules that affect A- and H- shares differently.
Reliance Industries Ltd
Downside risks to our Reliance price target and estimates include further operational complications at the Dhirubhai field which
result in a significantly lower than expected production output and slower expansion. In telecom, 5G services will require additional
spectrum which could be higher than our current estimates. Downside risks to refining and petrochemical margins could come
from slow economic growth in the region and demand growth remains weak. In retail, slower than expected footfalls, increase in
capital expenditures and higher competition are key downside risks.
RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTION
Bernstein brand
The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 6-12 months versus the S&P 500 for
stocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large & Mid Cap Price
Return Index (EDM) for stocks listed on the European exchanges (except for Russian companies), versus the Bloomberg Emerging

Markets Large & Mid Cap Price Return Index (EM) for Russian companies and stocks listed on emerging markets exchanges
outside of the Asia Pacific region, versus the Bloomberg Japan Large & Mid Cap Price Return Index USD (JP) for stocks listed on
the Japanese exchanges, and versus the Bloomberg Asia ex-Japan Large & Mid Cap Price Return Index (ASIAX) for stocks listed
on the Asian (ex-Japan) exchanges -unless otherwise specified.
The Bernstein brand has three categories of ratings:
• Outperform: Stock will outpace the market index by more than 15 pp
• Market-Perform: Stock will perform in line with the market index to within +/-15 pp
• Underperform: Stock will trail the performance of the market index by more than 15 pp
Coverage Suspended applies when coverage of a company under the Bernstein research brand has been suspended. Ratings and
price targets are suspended temporarily. Previously issued ratings and price targets are no longer current and should therefore
not be relied upon.
Not Rated: The stock Rating, Target Price and/or estimates (if any) have been suspended temporarily.
Autonomous brand
The Autonomous brand rates stocks as indicated below. As our benchmarks we use the Bloomberg Europe 500 Banks And
Financial Services Index (BEBANKS) and Bloomberg Europe Dev Mkt Financials Lrg & Mid Cap Price Ret Index EUR (EDMFI)
index for European banks, the Bloomberg Europe 500 Insurance Index (BEINSUR) for European insurers, the S&P 500 and S&P
Financials for US banks coverage, S5LIFE for US Insurance, the S&P Insurance Select Industry (SPSIINS) for US Non-Life Insurers
coverage, and Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index (IBOV) for Brazil and Hang Seng H-FIN (HSHFI-HK) index for China
banks and insurers. Ratings are stated relative to the sector (not the market).
The Autonomous brand has three categories of ratings:
• Outperform (OP): Stock will outpace the relevant index by more than 10 pp
• Neutral (N): Stock will perform in line with the relevant index to within +/-10 pp
• Underperform (UP): Stock will trail the performance of the relevant index by more than 10 pp
Coverage Suspended (CS) applies when coverage of a company under the Autonomous research brand has been suspended.
Ratings and price targets are suspended temporarily. Previously issued ratings and price targets are no longer current and should
therefore not be relied upon.
Not Rated: The stock Rating, Target Price and/or estimates (if any) have been suspended temporarily.
Those denoted as ‘Feature’ (e.g., Feature Outperform FOP, Feature Under Outperform FUP) are our core ideas. Not Rated (NR) is
applied to companies that are not under formal coverage.
For both brands, recommendations are based on a 12-month time horizon.
DISTRIBUTION OF RATINGS/INVESTMENT BANKING SERVICES

Rating Market Abuse Regulation (MAR) and Count Percent Count* Percent*
FINRA Rule 2241 classification
Outperform BUY 386 50.13% 0 0.00%
Market-Perform (Bernstein Brand)

HOLD 262 34.03% 1 0.38%
Neutral (Autonomous Brand)
Underperform SELL 122 15.84% 0 0.00%
* These figures represent the number and percentage of companies in each category to whom Bernstein and Autonomous
provided investment banking services.
As of Jun 13 2023. All figures are updated quarterly and represent the cumulative ratings over the previous 12 months.

PRICE CHARTS/ RATINGS AND PRICE TARGET HISTORY
Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL.IN) Rating History for Bernstein as of 06/09/2023

O:INR1,870.00 O:INR2,470.00 O:INR2,830.00 O:INR3,360.00 O:INR3,210.00 O:INR3,030.00
06/24/2020 09/23/2020 07/15/2021 06/29/2022 07/06/2022 05/25/2023
INR3,500
INR3,000
INR2,500
INR2,000
INR1,500
Jul 20 Oct 20 Jan 21 Apr 21 Jul 21 Oct 21 Jan 22 Apr 22 Jul 22 Oct 22 Jan 23 Apr 23
Closing Price Price Target
Outperform (O); Market-Perform (M); Underperform (U); Coverage Suspended (CS); Not Rated (NR)
Reliance Industries Ltd (RIGD.LI) Rating History for Bernstein as of 06/09/2023

O:$56.10 O:$74.10 O:$84.90 O:$100.80 O:$96.30 O:$90.90
06/24/2020 09/23/2020 07/15/2021 06/29/2022 07/06/2022 05/25/2023
$110
$100
$90
$80
$70
$60
$50
$40
Jul 20 Oct 20 Jan 21 Apr 21 Jul 21 Oct 21 Jan 22 Apr 22 Jul 22 Oct 22 Jan 23 Apr 23
Closing Price Price Target
Outperform (O); Market-Perform (M); Underperform (U); Coverage Suspended (CS); Not Rated (NR)
Rahul Malhotra maintains a long position in Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL.IN and RIGD.LI).
OTHER MATTERS
It is at the sole discretion of the Firm as to when to initiate, update and cease research coverage. The Firm has established,
maintains and relies on information barriers to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas (i.e. the private side)
within the Firm, and into other areas, units, groups or affiliates (i.e. public side) of the Firm.
The legal entity(ies) employing the analyst(s) listed in this report can be determined by the country code of their phone number,
as follows:
+1 Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC
+44 Bernstein Autonomous LLP
+353 Sanford C. Bernstein Ireland Limited
+91 Sanford C. Bernstein (India) Private Limited
+852 Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited 盛博香港有限公司
+65 Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited
+81 Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK
CERTIFICATION
Each research analyst listed in this report, who is primarily responsible for the preparation of the content of this report, certifies
that all of the views expressed in this publication accurately reflect that analyst's personal views about any and all of the subject

securities or issuers and that no part of that analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific
recommendations or views in this publication.
II. OTHER IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND DISCLOSURES
References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC,
Bernstein Autonomous LLP, Sanford C. Bernstein Limited (for dates prior to January, 1, 2021), Autonomous Research LLP (for
dates between April 1, 2019 and December 31, 2020), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited 盛博香港有限公司, Sanford
C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, Sanford C. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378) and Sanford C.
Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited, which is a licensed entity under the Securities and Futures Act and registered with Company
Registration No. 20213710W.
Separate branding is maintained for “Bernstein” and “Autonomous” research products.
• Bernstein produces a number of different types of research products including, among others, fundamental analysis and
quantitative analysis, under both the “Autonomous” and “Bernstein” brands. Recommendations contained within one type of
research product may differ from recommendations contained within other types of research products, whether as a result of
differing time horizons, methodologies or otherwise. Furthermore, views or recommendations within a research product issued
under one brand may differ from views or recommendations under the same type of research product issued under the other
brand. The Research Ratings System for the two brands and other information related to those Rating Systems are included
in the previous section.
• Each operates as a separate business unit within the following entities: Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC, Sanford C. Bernstein
(Hong Kong) Limited 盛博香港有限公司 and Bernstein Autonomous LLP. For information relating to “Autonomous” branded
products (including certain Sales materials) please visit: www.autonomous.com. For information relating to Bernstein branded
products please visit: www.bernsteinresearch.com.
Information related to the acquisition of Autonomous Research:
• On and as of April 1, 2019, AllianceBernstein L.P. acquired Autonomous Research. As a result of the acquisition, the research
activities formerly conducted by Autonomous Research US LP and Autonomous Research Asia Limited were assumed by
Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC and Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司, respectively. Both entities
continue to publish research under the Autonomous brand.
• References to “Autonomous” in these disclosures relate to the Autonomous Research LLP and, with reference to dates prior
to April 1, 2019, to Autonomous Research US LP and Autonomous Research Asia Limited, and, with reference to April 1, 2019
onwards, the Autonomous Research US unit and separate brand of Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC and the Autonomous
Research Asia unit and separate brand of Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited 盛博香港有限公司, collectively.
Information related to the reorganization of Sanford C. Bernstein Limited and Autonomous Research LLP:
• On and after close of business on December 31, 2020, as part of an internal reorganisation of the corporate group, Sanford C.
Bernstein Limited transferred its business to its affiliate Autonomous Research LLP. Subsequent to this transfer, Autonomous
Research LLP changed its name to Bernstein Autonomous LLP. As a result of the reorganisation, the research activities formerly
conducted by Sanford C. Bernstein Limited were assumed by Bernstein Autonomous LLP, which is authorised and regulated by
the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN 500498) and now publishes research under the Bernstein Research Brand.Please note
that all price targets, recommendations and historical price charts are unaffected by the transfer of the business from Sanford
C. Bernstein Limited and have been carried forward unchanged to Bernstein Autonomous LLP. You can continue to find this
information on the Bernstein website at www.bernsteinresearch.com.
Analysts are compensated based on aggregate contributions to the research franchise as measured by account penetration,
productivity and proactivity of investment ideas. No analysts are compensated based on performance in, or contributions to,
generating investment banking revenues.
This report has been produced by an independent analyst as defined in Article 3 (1)(34)(i) of EU 296/2014 Market Abuse
Regulation (“MAR”).
Where this material contains an analysis of debt product(s), such material is intended only for institutional investors and is not
subject to the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research prepared for retail investors.

This document may not be passed on to any person in the United Kingdom (i) who is a retail client (ii) unless that person or entity
qualifies as an authorised person or exempt person within the meaning of section 19 of the UK Financial Services and Markets Act
2000 (the "Act"), or qualifies as a person to whom the financial promotion restriction imposed by the Act does not apply by virtue
of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, or is a person classified as an "professional
client" for the purposes of the Conduct of Business Rules of the Financial Conduct Authority.
This document may not be passed onto any person in Canada unless that person qualifies as "permitted client" as defined in
Section 1.1 of NI 31-103.
To our readers in the United States: Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC, a broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and
Exchange Commission (“SEC”) and a member of the U.S. Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Inc. (“FINRA”) is distributing this
publication in the United States and accepts responsibility for its contents. Where this report has been prepared by research
analyst(s) employed by a non-US affiliate, such analyst(s), is/are (unless otherwise expressly noted) not registered as associated
persons of Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC or any other SEC-registered broker-dealer and are not licensed or qualified as
research analysts with FINRA or any other US regulatory authority. Accordingly, reports prepared by such analyst(s) may not be
prepared in compliance with FINRA’s restrictions regarding (among other things) communications by research analysts with a
subject company, interactions between research analysts and investment banking personnel, participation by research analysts
in solicitation and marketing activities relating to investment banking transactions, public appearances by research analysts, and
trading securities held by a research analyst account.
To our readers in the United Kingdom: This publication has been issued or approved for issue in the United Kingdom by
Bernstein Autonomous LLP, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and located at 60 London Wall, London
EC2M 5SH, +44 (0)20-7170-5000. Registered in England & Wales No OC343985.
To our readers in Ireland and the member states of the EEA: This publication is being distributed by Sanford C. Bernstein
Ireland Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland.
To our readers in Hong Kong: This publication is being distributed in Hong Kong by Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited
盛博香港有限公司, which is licensed and regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (Central Entity No.
AXC846) to carry out Type 4 (Advising on Securities) regulated activities and subject to the licensing conditions mentioned in
the SFC Public Register (https://www.sfc.hk/publicregWeb/corp/AXC846/details)). This publication is solely for professional
investors only, as defined in the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Cap. 571).
To our readers in Singapore: This publication is being distributed in Singapore by Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private
Limited, only to accredited investors or institutional investors, as defined in the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289).
Recipients in Singapore should contact Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited in respect of matters arising from, or in
connection with, this publication. Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited is a licensed entity under the Securities and
Futures Act and registered with Company Registration No. 20213710W. It is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore
and located at One Raffles Quay, #27-11 South Tower, Singapore 048583, +65-62302300.
To our readers in the People’s Republic of China: The securities referred to in this document are not being offered or sold and
may not be offered or sold, directly or indirectly, in the People's Republic of China (for such purposes, not including the Hong Kong
and Macau Special Administrative Regions or Taiwan), except as permitted by the securities laws of the People’s Republic of China.
To our readers in Japan: This document is not delivered to you for marketing purposes, and any information provided herein
should not be construed as a recommendation, solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial products.
For the institutional client readers in Japan who have been granted access to the Bernstein website by Daiwa Securities
Group Inc. (“Daiwa”), your access to this document should not be construed as meaning that Bernstein is providing you with
investment advice for any purposes. Whilst Bernstein has prepared this document, your relationship is, and will remain with, Daiwa,
and Bernstein has neither any contractual relationship with you nor any obligations towards you.
To our readers in Australia: Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Bernstein Autonomous LLP, Sanford C. Bernstein Ireland Limited,
Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited 盛博香港有限公司, Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited, and Sanford C.
Bernstein (India) Private Limited ("Bernstein Affiliates") are regulated, respectively, by the Securities and Exchange Commission
under U.S. laws, by the Financial Conduct Authority under U.K. laws, by the Central Bank of Ireland, by the Hong Kong Securities
and Futures Commission under Hong Kong laws, by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws, and Securities
and Exchange Board of India, all of which differ from Australian laws. The Bernstein Affiliates are exempt from the requirement to
hold an Australian financial services license under the Corporations Act 2001 in respect of the provision of the following financial
services to wholesale clients:
• providing financial product advice;

• dealing in a financial product;
• making a market for a financial product; and
• providing a custodial or depository service.
To our readers in Canada: If this publication pertains to a Canadian domiciled company, it is being distributed in Canada by
Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, which is licensed and regulated by the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of
Canada ("IIROC"). If the publication pertains to a non-Canadian domiciled company, it is being distributed by Sanford C. Bernstein
& Co., LLC, which is licensed and regulated by both the SEC and FINRA, into Canada under the International Dealers Exemption.
To our readers in India: This publication is being distributed in India by Sanford C. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SCB India)
which is licensed and regulated by Securities and Exchange Board of India ("SEBI") as a research analyst entity under the SEBI
(Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014, having registration no. INH000006378 and as a stock broker having registration no.
INZ000213537. SCB India is currently engaged in the business of providing research and stock broking services.
• SCB India is a Private limited company incorporated under the Companies Act, 2013, on April 12, 2017 bearing corporate
identification number U65999MH2017FTC293762, and registered office at Level 6, 4 North Avenue, Maker Maxity, Bandra
Kurla Complex, Bandra (East), Mumbai 400051, Maharashtra, India (Phone No: +91-22-68421401).
• For details of Associates (i.e., affiliates/group companies) of SCB India, kindly email scbincompliance@alliancebernstein.com.
• SCB India does not have any disciplinary history as of the date of this report.
• Except as noted above, SCB India and/or its Associates (i.e., affiliates/group companies), the Research Analysts authoring this
report, and their relatives
• do not have any financial interest in the subject company
• do not have actual/beneficial ownership of one percent or more in securities of the subject company;
• is not engaged in any investment banking activities for Indian companies, as such;
• have not managed or co-managed a public offering in the past twelve months for the subject company;
• have not received any compensation for investment banking services or merchant banking services from the subject
company in the past 12 months;
• have not received compensation for brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months;
• have not received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party related to the specific
recommendations or views in this report;
• do not currently, but may in the future, act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the companies covered in the
report; and
• do not have any conflict of interest in the subject company as of the date of this report.
• Except as noted above, the subject company has not been a client of SCB India during twelve months preceding the date
of distribution of this research report. Neither SCB India nor its Associates (i.e., affiliates/group companies) have received
compensation for products or services other than investment banking, merchant banking or brokerage services from the
subject company in the past twelve months.
• The principal research analyst(s) who prepared this report, members of the analysts' team, and members of their households
are not an officer, director, employee or advisory board member of the companies covered in the report.
• Our Compliance officer / Grievance officer is Ms. Rupal Talati, who can be reached at +91-22-68421451, or
scbincompliance@alliancebernstein.com.

• Disclaimer : Registration granted by SEBI, and certification from NISM, is in no way a guarantee of performance of the
intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.
LEGAL
This publication has been published and distributed in accordance with the Firm's policy for management of conflicts of interest
in investment research, a copy of which is available from Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC, Director of Compliance, 1345 Avenue
of the Americas, New York, N.Y. 10105. Additional disclosures and information regarding Bernstein's business are available on
our website www.bernsteinresearch.com.
This publication is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of, or
located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary
to law or regulation or which would subject any of the entities referenced herein or any of their subsidiaries or affiliates to any
registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. This publication is based upon public sources we believe to be
reliable, but no representation is made by us that the publication is accurate or complete. We do not undertake to advise you of
any change in the reported information or in the opinions herein. This publication was prepared and issued by entity referred to
herein for distribution to eligible counterparties or professional clients. This publication is not an offer to buy or sell any security,
and it does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. The investments referred to herein may not be suitable for you. Investors
must make their own investment decisions in consultation with their professional advisors in light of their specific circumstances.
The value of investments may fluctuate, and investments that are denominated in foreign currencies may fluctuate in value as a
result of exposure to exchange rate movements. Information about past performance of an investment is not necessarily a guide
to, indicator of, or assurance of, future performance.
This report is directed to and intended only for our clients who are “eligible counterparties”, “professional clients”, “institutional
investors” and/or “professional investors” as defined by the aforementioned regulators, and must not be redistributed to retail
clients as defined by the aforementioned regulators. Retail clients who receive this report should note that the services of the
entities noted herein are not available to them and should not rely on the material herein to make an investment decision. The result
of such act will not hold the entities noted herein liable for any loss thus incurred as the entities noted herein are not registered/
authorised/ licensed to deal with retail clients and will not enter into any contractual agreement/arrangement with retail clients.
This report is provided subject to the terms and conditions of any agreement that the clients may have entered into with the entities
noted herein . All research reports are disseminated on a simultaneous basis to eligible clients through electronic publication to
our client portal. The information is private and confidential and for the use of the clients only.
This report has been prepared for information purposes only and is based on current public information that we consider reliable,
but the entities noted herein do not warrant or represent (express or implied) as to the sources of information or data contained
herein are accurate, complete, not misleading or as to its fitness for the purpose intended even though the entities noted herein
rely on reputable or trustworthy data providers, it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed are the author(s)’
current opinions as of the date appearing on the material only. The information in this report does not constitute a personal
recommendation, as defined by any of the aforementioned regulators, or take into account the particular investment objectives,
financial situations, or needs of individual investors. The report has not been reviewed by any of the aforementioned regulators
and does not represent any official recommendation from the aforementioned regulators.
The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different
results. The information in this report does not constitute, or form part of, any offer to sell or issue, or any offer to purchase or
subscribe for shares, or to induce engage in any other investment activity. The value of any securities or financial instruments
mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise subject to market conditions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of
future results. Estimates of future performance mentioned by the research analyst in this report are based on assumptions that
may not be realized due to unforeseen factors like market volatility/fluctuation. In relation to securities or financial instruments
denominated in a foreign currency other than the clients’ home currency, movements in exchange rates will have an effect on
the value, either favorable or unfavorable. Before acting on any recommendations in this report, recipients should consider the
appropriateness of investing in the subject securities or financial instruments mentioned in this report and, if necessary, seek for
independent professional advice.
The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors where that
permission profile is not consistent with the licenses held by the entities noted herein. This document is for distribution only as may
be permitted by law. It is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or
located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary
to law or regulation or would subject the entities noted herein to any regulation or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction.
Source: Bloomberg Index Services Limited. BLOOMBERG® is a trademark and service mark of Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its
affiliates (collectively “Bloomberg”). Bloomberg or Bloomberg’s licensors own all proprietary rights in the Bloomberg Indices.
Neither Bloomberg nor Bloomberg’s licensors approves or endorses this material, or guarantees the accuracy or completeness of

any information herein, or makes any warranty, express or implied, as to the results to be obtained therefrom and, to the maximum
extent allowed by law, neither shall have any liability or responsibility for injury or damages arising in connection therewith.
No part of this material may be reproduced, distributed or transmitted or otherwise made available without prior consent of the
entities noted herein. Copyright Bernstein Autonomous LLP, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC and Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong
Kong) Limited 盛博香港有限公司. All rights reserved. The trademarks and service marks contained herein are the property of
their respective owners. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is strictly prohibited. The entities noted herein may pursue legal action
if the unauthorized use results in any defamation and/or reputational risk to the entities noted herein and research published under
the Bernstein and Autonomous brands.

Reliance Industries - India's US$2tn Clean Energy Opportunity

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

You might also like

Reliance Industries - India's US$2tn Clean Energy Opportunity

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Reliance Industries - India's US$2tn Clean Energy Opportunity

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of HITESH SHAH at GILDER GAGNON HOWE & CO

Reliance Industries Ltd Rahul Malhotra

Outperform Brian Ho, CFA

RIL.IN 3,040.00 INR (3,030.00 OLD)

Reliance Industries: India's US$2tn clean energy opportunity

EM 89.80 102.52 121.50 EV/CE (x) 2.1 1.9 1.7

*Values shown in billions;

May 16, 2023: Reliance Jio - On the path to 500 Mn subscribers

864 915 853

E&P Petrochemical Refining Digital Retail New Energy Others

Source: Company report, Bernstein estimates and analysis

ASIA-PACIFIC OIL & GAS BERNSTEIN 2

New Energy Business TAM ($bn)

Cumulative TAM ($bn)

Solar Battery - ESS Battery - Transport Electrolyzer Fuel Cells Cumulative

Source: BP, Bloomberg, SNE, Bernstein estimates and analysis

New Energy 19 206

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220

2025 TAM 2050 TAM

Source: Company data, Bernstein estimates and analysis

ASIA-PACIFIC OIL & GAS BERNSTEIN 3

Undisc. Valuation ($bn) M/S (2050)

Undisc. Valuation (INR/sh) M/S (2050)

Disc. Valuation (INR/sh) M/S (2050)

Source: Bernstein estimates and analysis

ASIA-PACIFIC OIL & GAS BERNSTEIN 4

Annual Fuel Cell TAM $bn 0 0 6 36 59% 39%

Total New Energy Business TAM $bn 6 30 76 206 17% 12%

Reliance New Energy Revenue (Bern.) $bn 0 13

Source: BP, Bloomberg, SNE, Bernstein estimates and analysis

ASIA-PACIFIC OIL & GAS BERNSTEIN 5

Solar (2030) Battery (2030) Hydrogen (2030)

EXHIBIT 9: Reliance market share of India 2030 new energy demand

Market Share (2030) India Reliance RIL M/S

Source: Company data, Bernstein estimates and analysis

Solar (2030 Installed Battery (2030 Manufacturing Electrolyzer (2030 Installed

ASIA-PACIFIC OIL & GAS BERNSTEIN 6

ASIA-PACIFIC OIL & GAS BERNSTEIN 7

Source: Company data, Bernstein analysis

ASIA-PACIFIC OIL & GAS BERNSTEIN 8

Our assumptions for the New Energy business are follow:

ASIA-PACIFIC OIL & GAS BERNSTEIN 9

EXHIBIT 15: Our assumptions for Reliance's New Energy business

New Energy Solar Batteries Electrolyzer Fuel Cell

FY27 ASP 490 180 346 1,251

Source: Company data, Bernstein estimates (all) and analysis

ASIA-PACIFIC OIL & GAS BERNSTEIN 10

Petrochemical EBITDA R&M EBITDA

ASIA-PACIFIC OIL & GAS BERNSTEIN 11

Source: Company data, Bernstein analysis

Source: Company data, Bernstein estimates and analysis

ASIA-PACIFIC OIL & GAS BERNSTEIN 12

Petrochemical EBIT (US$/ton)

EXHIBIT 20: RIL petrochemical margin outlook

REFINING & MARKETING

ASIA-PACIFIC OIL & GAS BERNSTEIN 13

Source: Company report, Bernstein estimates and analysis

ASIA-PACIFIC OIL & GAS BERNSTEIN 14