Journal of Cleaner Production

Air pollution control benefits in reducing inter-provincial trade-associated environmental

inequality on PM2.5-related premature deaths in China
--Manuscript Draft--

Manuscript Number: JCLEPRO-D-21-13355

Article Type: Original article

Keywords: Air pollution control; Environmental inequality; Emissions; Premature deaths;

Economic losses

Abstract: Inter-provincial trade may cause the transfer of air pollutants and associated health
risks, leading to the issue of environmental inequality. Strengthened air pollution
control in China in the past years has gained great benefits in air quality and public
health, while its effect in modulating the trade-associated environmental inequality is
still unknown. Here we explore the impact of air pollution control on the trade-
associated environmental inequality in China by not only traditional emissions-based
index, but also the exposure-based index which is more related to health risks.
Although the inter-provincial transfers of pollutant emissions were substantially
reduced due to the air pollution control, the emissions-based index implied that the
imbalance of pollutant emissions and value added among the 31 provinces aggravated
from 2012 to 2017 in China. Moreover, the exposure-based index suggested that air
pollution control reduced the environmental absolute and relative inequality associated
with human health risks implied in inter-provincial transfer. The cost related to inter-
provincial trade was about 5.46 premature deaths per 100 million RMB value added in
2012, which fell to 3.91 deaths in 2017. The average percentage of economic losses to
value added of all transfers was 5% in 2012 and dropped to 3.6% in 2017.This study
reflects inter-provincial trade-associated transfer and environmental inequality in a
more refined and comprehensive way, with a view to providing a reference for inter-
provincial economic cooperation and financial compensation.

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Graphical Abstract
Highlights (for review)

Highlights:

Exposure-based index is used to quantify environmental inequality on health risk.

Air pollution control reduced trade-associated transfers of pollutant emissions.

The imbalance of emissions and value added aggravated during 2012-2017 in China.

Air pollution control reduced environmental inequality associated with human health.
Figure Click here to access/download;Figure;Figure.docx

Fig.1. The methodological framework of this study

Fig.2. Production-based and consumption-based pollutant emissions of China’s 31 provinces
during 2012-2017. The left side of axis 0 is the pollutant emission in 2012, and the right side is
emission in 2017.The figures on both sides represent the difference between consumption-based
emissions and production-based emissions.
Fig.3. The Lorenz curves and Gini coefficient of pollution emissions for Chinese 31 provinces during
2012-2017.
Fig.4. Inter-provincial transfers of PM2.5-related premature deaths and economic losses during
2012-2017. The red shading corresponds to provinces whose production-based deaths/losses are
greater. Arrows between provinces denote the larger inter-provincial transfers, with the number
of deaths exceeds 2,500,and economic losses exceed 2.5 billion RMB.The beginning of arrows are
consuming provinces, and the end are areas where deaths and economic losses occurred. The
thickness of arrows indicates the number of transfers. The geographical location and name of the
provinces are shown in Fig.S1.
Fig.5. The matrixes of Death-GDP index and Loss-GDP index among Chinese provinces.Each cell of
panels (a) and (b) represents the number of premature deaths(that occurred in the province shown
in the row)per unit of value added.Each cell of panels (c) and (d) represents the percentage of
economic losses (due to the premature deaths that occurred in the province shown in the row) to
value added (which transfers from the province shown in the column). The same index shares a
color bar. Darker colors signify higher index values and greater levels of inequality.
Province abbreviations are BJ,Beijing; TJ,Tianjin; HB,Hebei; SX,Shanxi; NM,Inner Mongolia;
LN,Liaoning; JL,Jilin; HL,Heilongjiang; SH,Shanghai; JS,Jiangsu; ZJ,Zhejiang; AH,Anhui; FJ,Fujian;
JX,Jiangxi; SD,Shandong; HE,Henan; UB,Hubei; HU,Hunan; GD,Guangdong; GX,Guangxi; HA,Hainan;
CQ,Chongqing; SC,Sichuan; GZ,Guizhou; YN,Yunnan; SA,Shaanxi; GS,Gansu; NX,Ningxia; SJ,Xinjiang.

Fig.6.The change rate of DG and LG index during 2012-2017. A negative value indicates a decrease
of DG and LG index in 2017, compared to 2012. Darker colors signify the greater drop.The growth
of index is shown in white.Since the data of economic loss associated with one case of premature
death for 2012 and 2017 are the same, the change rate of DG and LG index are the same, too. The
change rate of Ningxia - Tianjin, Ningxia - Shandong and Jilin - Chongqing was not considered
because the premature deaths of the three transfers were approaching 0 in 2017.
Table Click here to access/download;Table;Table.docx

Table 1. Summary of production/ consumption-based transfer ratio

Production-based ratio Consumption-based ratio

Provinces
2012 2017 2012 2017

Beijing 83.6% 85.5% 82.4% 83.4%

Tianjin 81.5% 80.2% 88.2% 85.4%

Hebei 66.0% 60.1% 66.0% 60.8%

Shanxi 68.8% 62.2% 73.3% 68.8%

Inner Mongolia 69.1% 67.0% 83.0% 80.7%

Liaoning 70.9% 65.1% 70.5% 63.5%

Jilin 69.5% 66.4% 65.6% 60.4%

Heilongjiang 55.9% 46.3% 67.8% 58.4%

Shanghai 79.9% 79.6% 84.7% 83.9%

Jiangsu 72.0% 66.9% 73.8% 71.7%

Zhejiang 60.1% 61.2% 72.7% 73.8%

Anhui 76.2% 72.3% 72.1% 71.3%

Fujian 68.4% 64.1% 73.6% 70.1%

Jiangxi 71.1% 66.6% 64.1% 59.4%

Shandong 54.9% 51.0% 62.8% 58.7%

Henan 68.1% 66.3% 57.4% 54.0%

Hubei 53.1% 53.3% 59.9% 57.4%

Hunan 65.4% 59.8% 54.3% 52.0%

Guangdong 63.6% 61.2% 52.3% 48.8%

 Guangxi 73.1% 70.6% 56.3% 50.6%

Hainan 85.2% 87.9% 90.6% 90.4%

Chongqing 53.6% 50.3% 62.8% 58.0%

Sichuan 45.0% 39.5% 28.1% 24.8%

Guizhou 60.0% 52.8% 55.8% 52.6%

Yunnan 40.9% 43.7% 51.7% 48.8%

Shaanxi 63.1% 57.2% 62.4% 55.8%

Gansu 67.8% 62.4% 63.1% 56.2%

Ningxia 71.7% 70.3% 83.7% 78.9%

Xinjiang 32.4% 32.7% 55.2% 49.4%

Notes:Production-based ratio:the numerator is the number of a given province’s deaths caused by

consumption of the other 28 provinces,and the denominator is production-based deaths of this

province. Consumption-based ratio: the numerator is the number of deaths in the other 28

provinces caused by a given province’s consumption,and the denominator is consumption-based

deaths in this province.

Table 2. The correlation in all transfers between DG index and the proportion of each industry’s

transfer volume in the total transfer volume

Agriculture, Petroleum and Petroleum processing, Nonmetal Metals

Spearman’s

hunting, forestry natural gas coking and nuclear Chemicals mineral smelting and

correlation

and fishing exploitation fuel processing products pressing

the decrease

-0.058 -0.111** -0.219** 0.079* 0.099** 0.057

rate of DG$

DG value

0.261** -0.151** -0.105** 0.139** 0.196** 0.373**

for 2012

Electricity, heat Transport,

Spearman’s Gas, water production

Other industrial production and Construction warehousing Services

correlation and supply

supply and post

the decrease

0.210** 0.081* 0.086* 0.048 -0.092** 0.067

rate of DG$

DG value

0.068* 0.372** -0.184** -0.11** -0.042 -0.228**

for 2012

* p<0.05, ** p<0.01

$ It changes the decrease rate of DG into absolute values (excluding the increase rate of DG).
Supplementary File

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Supplementary File
Supplementary material.docx
Manuscript Click here to view linked References

1 7085 words

2 Air pollution control benefits in reducing inter-provincial trade-associated

3 environmental inequality on PM2.5-related premature deaths in China

4 Jiaxin Donga; Siwei Lia,b,*; Jia Xingc; Yisheng Sunc; Jie Yang a,d; Lu Renc; Xiaoyue Zenga

5 a School of Remote Sensing and Information Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China

6 b State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying, Mapping and Remote Sensing,

7 Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China

8 c School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China

9 d Electronic Information School ,Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China

10 E-mail: dongjiaxin@whu.edu.cn; siwei.li@whu.edu.cn; xingjia@tsinghua.edu.cn;

11 sys20@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn; jie.yang@whu.edu.cn; rl19@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn;

12 xyzeng@whu.edu.cn

13 Corresponding author: Siwei Li E-mail: siwei.li@whu.edu.cn Tel: 086-27-68778546

14 ABSTRACT:

15 Inter-provincial trade may cause the transfer of air pollutants and associated health risks, leading

16 to the issue of environmental inequality. Strengthened air pollution control in China in the past

17 years has gained great benefits in air quality and public health, while its effect in modulating the

18 trade-associated environmental inequality is still unknown. Here we explore the impact of air

19 pollution control on the trade-associated environmental inequality in China by not only traditional

20 emissions-based index, but also the exposure-based index which is more related to health risks.

21 Although the inter-provincial transfers of pollutant emissions were substantially reduced due to

1 / 35
22 the air pollution control, the emissions-based index implied that the imbalance of pollutant

23 emissions and value added among the 31 provinces aggravated from 2012 to 2017 in China.

24 Moreover, the exposure-based index suggested that air pollution control reduced the

25 environmental absolute and relative inequality associated with human health risks implied in inter-

26 provincial transfer. The cost related to inter-provincial trade was about 5.46 premature deaths per

27 100 million RMB value added in 2012, which fell to 3.91 deaths in 2017. The average percentage

28 of economic losses to value added of all transfers was 5% in 2012 and dropped to 3.6% in 2017.This

29 study reflects inter-provincial trade-associated transfer and environmental inequality in a more

30 refined and comprehensive way, with a view to providing a reference for inter-provincial economic

31 cooperation and financial compensation.

32 Keywords: Air pollution control; Environmental inequality; Emissions; Premature deaths; Economic

33 losses

34 1. Introduction

35 The interregional trade brings the exchange of good and service, but also causes the transfers of

36 air pollution and health impacts among regions (Liang et al., 2017; Lu et al., 2019; Wang et al.,

37 2017; Wang et al., 2020; Zhang et al., 2017). Previous studies have assessed the unequal

38 relationships between pollutant emissions and economic gains implied in the supply chain, and

39 emphasized the importance of environmental inequality associated with the interregional trades

40 (Nansai et al., 2020; Prell et al., 2015; Prell and Feng, 2016; Prell, 2016). On global scale, Zhang et

41 al. (2017) estimated that the number of PM2.5-related premature deaths was 3.45 million in 2007

42 worldwide, and about 22% were associated with inter-regional production and consumption. On

43 country scale, Zhang et al. (2018a) found that some provinces in western China (e.g., Guizhou,
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44 Ningxia) suffer unequal exchange when they trade with developed ones.

45 China is one of the countries with the highest PM2.5 concentrations in the world (Guan et al., 2014;

46 Van Donkelaar et al., 2015).The deterioration of air quality has adverse effects on human health(Lin

47 et al., 2010). Meanwhile, the pollution transfers stemming from inter-provincial trade also led to

48 significant environmental inequality as suggested in previous studies (Guan et al., 2019; Wang et

49 al., 2020; Zhang et al., 2018a). To reduce air pollution and protect human health, China’s

50 government issued a series of regulations and action plans on air pollution, such as the Air Pollution

51 Prevention and Control Action Plan in 2013, and Three-Year Action Plan for Winning the Blue Sky

52 Defense Battle in 2018 (The People's Republic of China, State Council, 2013, 2018; Zhang et al.,

53 2019), and gained considerable benefits in reducing the air pollution and related health damage

54 (Ding et al., 2019; Zhang et al., 2019). Along with the control action taken, the transfer of pollution,

55 premature deaths and economic losses associated with inter-provincial trade may also change.

56 However, the question that how the control policy influenced on the trade-associated

57 environmental inequality has not been answered yet.

58 To address the above question, here we explored the inter-provincial environmental inequality in

59 China and analyzed the impact of air pollution control on the inequality, by not only traditional

60 emissions-based index, but also perspectives of premature deaths and economic losses. We

61 accomplished this by combining environmentally extended multi-regional input-output model,

62 response surface model, global exposure mortality model and willingness to pay, to systematically

63 measure the provincial transfers. Our study aims to explore the effects of air pollution control on

64 the trade-associated environmental inequality, thus to guide future actions to further mitigation

65 the inter-provincial environmental inequality.

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66 The rest of the paper is organized as follows. The data and methods used in this study are detailed

67 in Section 2. Section 3 presents the results of production-based and consumption-based pollution

68 emissions, transfers of premature deaths and economic losses and environmental inequality. The

69 related policy implications and summaries are given in Section 4.

70 2. Materials and Methods

71 In this study, four models were integrated to analyze inter-provincial transfers of emissions,

72 premature deaths and economic losses, as summarized in Fig.1. We first estimated air pollution

73 emissions and value added of each province based on production and consumption accounting

74 way, by multi-regional input-output model (MRIO) and a bottom-up emission inventory (i.e.,

75 ABaCAS). Then, we tracked PM2.5 pollution that is contributed by emissions associated with

76 consumption in each province, using the polynomial functions response surface model (pf-RSM)

77 which provides real-time prediction of PM2.5 concentrations under certain emission scenarios. The

78 trade-associated transfers of premature deaths and economic losses among provinces were

79 estimated by using global exposure mortality model (GEMM) and willingness to pay method. Two

80 terms including emission-based and exposure-based index were introduced to evaluate the

81 inequality caused by inter-provincial production and consumption, in terms of pollution emissions,

82 premature deaths and economic losses.

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83

84 Fig.1. The methodological framework of this study

85 2.1 Estimation of inter-provincial transfers of pollutant emissions

86 We combined the multi-regional input-output model with a bottom-up emission inventory in China

87 to attribute the emissions of five major atmospheric pollutants (i.e., SO2, NOx, primary PM2.5,

88 NMVOC and NH3) released in a province to both final produces and final consumers (Wang et al.,

89 2020; Yang et al., 2018; Zhao et al., 2015; Zhao et al., 2017). The 2012 China multi-regional input-

90 output table of 31 provincial units (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan) was used to connect the

91 economic links among industrial departments in multiple provinces, and express the supply chain

92 relationship between provinces (Liu et al., 2018).The bottom-up anthropogenic emission inventory

93 over China were taken from the Air Benefit and Cost and Attainment Assessment System (ABaCAS)

94 developed by Tsinghua University (Xing et al., 2020a).

95 We aggregated the 42 sectors of MRIO into 12 sectors to match with the sectors in ABaCAS, as

96 defined in Table S1. One thing should be noted that this study focused on the domestic pollution

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 97 implied by regional local final use, including the final consumption and capital formation, and

98 excluded exports. The emissions caused by residential living and open burning were not considered

99 because they are not related to production and were defined as direct emissions in the study.

100 The pollutant emissions per unit of sectors' output were calculated as follows.

101 𝑑𝑖𝑗 = 𝑤𝑖𝑗 /𝑥𝑖𝑗 , (1)

102 where 𝑤𝑖𝑗 is the emission of pollutants in sector j of province i, 𝑥𝑖𝑗 is the total output of province i

103 and sector j, 𝑑𝑖𝑗 is the emission coefficient of pollutants and D is the row vector of emission

104 coefficient.

𝑋1 𝑌1 𝐹ℎ1
𝑋2 𝑌2 𝐹ℎ2
⋮ ⋮
105 X= ,𝑌 = , 𝐹ℎ = ⋮𝑟 , (2)
𝑋𝑟 𝑌𝑟 𝐹ℎ
⋮ ⋮ ⋮
[𝑋𝑚 ] [𝑌𝑚 ] [𝐹ℎ𝑚 ]

106 where h, r and m are area codes, m is the number of areas, X is a vector of total output in input-

107 output table, Y is a vector of the finished use, and 𝐹ℎ𝑟 represents the column vector of final use of

108 province h provided by province r.

109 The total amount of pollutant emissions in China can be calculated as follows.

110 W = DX, (3)

111 X = (𝐼 − 𝐴)−1𝑌, (4)

112 where I is the identity matrix,(𝐼 − 𝐴)−1is the Leontief inverse matrix.

113 The pollutant emissions caused by final use of province h, can be calculated as follows.

114 𝑊ℎ = 𝐷(𝐼 − 𝐴)−1 𝐹ℎ , (5)

115 where 𝑊ℎ is the emission associated with final use of province h. Based on above equation, the

116 implied emission flows between any two provinces can be obtained.

117 Therefore, we can quantify emissions and value added of each province from the perspective of
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118 production and consumption. Following other studies (Zhao et al., 2015), we defined the

119 “production-based” emissions or value added as those generated by the production of a given

120 province , and the “consumption-based” as those related to the consumption of a given province.

121 2.2 Quantification of the contributions of provinces' emissions to PM2.5 concentrations

122 We used polynomial functions response surface model (pf-RSM) to simulate the PM2.5

123 concentrations under different emission scenarios. The province-based pf-RSM in China quantifies

124 responses of ambient PM2.5 concentrations to changes in anthropogenic emissions of SO2, NOx,

125 primary PM2.5, NMVOC and NH3 at provincial level, which was developed by using a set of

126 polynomial functions to simulate a chemical transport model(Xing et al., 2018; Xing et al., 2020b) .

127 Given the uncertainty in the simulation of Tibet and Qinghai, we selected 29 provincial units of

128 mainland China except Tibet and Qinghai as the research objects.

129 The contribution of trade-associated transfer of pollution emissions on PM2.5 concentration was

130 estimated through sensitivity analysis by baseline scenario and hypothesis scenario (Wang et al.,

131 2017; Zhang et al., 2017). The differences of simulated PM2.5 between two scenarios represent the

132 contributions of each province’s consumption to PM2.5 concentrations in the whole simulated

133 region, as follows.

134 𝐹𝑖 = (𝐶𝑏𝑎𝑠𝑒 − 𝐶𝑖 )⁄𝐶𝑏𝑎𝑠𝑒 , (6)

135 where Fi is the pf-RSM modeled fractional contribution of PM2.5 due to consumption of province i,

136 Cbase is the modeled PM2.5 concentration from baseline scenario (the production-based emissions),

137 Ci is the modeled PM2.5 concentration from hypothesis scenario (subtract the consumption-based

138 emissions of province i from baseline scenario).

139 Considering the nonlinearity of atmospheric chemistry, the modeled contributions of individual

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140 provinces were further normalized to make the sum of them equal to 100%, as follows.

141 𝑁𝐹𝑖 = (𝐶𝑏𝑎𝑠𝑒 − 𝐶𝑖 )⁄∑n𝑖=1(𝐶𝑏𝑎𝑠𝑒 − 𝐶𝑖 ), (7)

142 where NFi is the normalized value of Fi, the denominator is the sum of the differences between

143 baseline scenario and n hypothetical scenarios.

144 2.3 Assessment of health and economic impacts associated with the inter-provincial trade

145 The transfers of health and economic impacts associated with the inter-provincial trade were

146 estimated based on the contribution of province’s consumption to PM2.5 concentration.

147 First, we used Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM) to estimate the PM2.5-related premature

148 deaths (Burnett et al., 2018).The nonaccidental mortality of noncommunicable diseases and lower

149 respiratory infections (NCD+LRI) attributable to long-term exposure to PM2.5 (Liu et al., 2020; Maji,

150 2020) was quantified as follows.

151 GEMM(z) = exp{[θ ln(𝑧/𝛼 + 1) ]/[1 + exp(−(𝑧 − 𝜇)/𝑣) ] }, (8)

152 ∆Y = 𝑌0 × [1 − 1/𝐺𝐸𝑀𝑀(𝑧) ] × 𝑃𝑜𝑝, (9)

153 where z = max(0, PM2.5 − 2.4),𝐺𝐸𝑀𝑀(𝑧) is the hazard ratio associated with PM2.5 exposure

154 level z. The shape of the hazard ratio faction is determined by the parameters 𝜃, 𝛼, 𝜇, and 𝑣.∆𝑌 is

155 the PM2.5-related premature deaths; 𝑌0 is the baseline mortality rate; Pop is the population

156 exposed to PM2.5.

157 Second, the health effects were monetized using willingness to pay method to become comparable

158 with the value added. Compared to other monetization methods such as cost of illness or human

159 capital, the method of willingness to pay is more widely preferred which includes intangible losses

160 (Ding et al., 2016). The economic losses due to the PM2.5-related premature deaths, defined as M,

161 can be calculated as follows.

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162 M = ∆Y × V, (10)

163 where ∆𝑌 is the premature deaths; 𝑉 is the economic loss corresponding to one case of

164 premature death, which was originally obtained from the contingent valuation(CV) study

165 conducted in Chongqing in 1998 by Wang and Mullahy(2006) and further adjusted according to

166 the differences in residential income between provinces and years (Huang et al., 2012).

167 The baseline PM2.5 exposure estimates for 2012 were obtained from GBD2013 (Brauer et al., 2016).

168 The baseline mortality rates of NCD and LRI by age and sex were obtained from Chinese center for

169 disease control and prevention. Population data were downloaded from Oak Ridge National

170 Laboratory at a 1km resolution and further aggregated to the same resolution of the PM2.5

171 concentrations ( 0.1° × 0.1° ). Data of income, population age structure, gender ratio and the

172 proportion of urban residents, were downloaded from the National Bureau of Statistics of the

173 People's Republic of China (NBSC).

174 Due to the nonlinearity of the GEMM functions, the source-specific contribution to PM2.5 deaths is

175 non-uniform along the curve. We used the direct proportion approach to estimate the deaths and

176 losses contribution from each specific province’s consumption (GBD MAPS, 2016). The PM2.5-

177 related premature deaths were original calculated on a 0.1° × 0.1° grid and aggregated by

178 province for the estimation of deaths and economic losses. For a specific province, the premature

179 deaths and economic losses caused by other provinces’ consumption were estimated by

180 multiplying its fractional contribution of consumption to PM2.5 concentration to the total PM2.5-

181 related deaths and losses, as follows.

182 𝑌𝑐𝑜𝑛 = ∆𝑌 × 𝐹𝑖 , (11)

183 where Ycon is the premature deaths caused by consumption of province i.

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184 Then, we defined the production-based and consumption-based deaths/losses. Taking Beijing as

185 an example, “production-based deaths/losses” refer to the number of premature deaths and

186 economic losses in Beijing caused by consumption of 29 provinces, and “consumption-based

187 deaths/losses” refer to the total number of premature deaths and economic losses in 29 provinces

188 caused by Beijing’s consumption. For a specific province, the number of production-based and

189 consumption-based deaths is different, but the total production-based deaths of 29 provinces is

190 equal to the total consumption-based deaths.

191 2.4 Measurements of environmental inequality

192 2.4.1 Emission-based index

193 We first evaluated the fairness of pollution emission and economic contribution following the

194 principle of Gini coefficient which is originally designed to measure the gap of resident income

195 (Wiedenhofer et al., 2017).

196 The Lorenz curve and corresponding Gini coefficient were derived from the fit between the

197 cumulative shares of pollution emissions of 31 provincial units (vertical axis) and the cumulative

198 shares of economic contribution (horizontal axis) (Teng et al., 2010). If a province produces a

199 certain proportion of pollutant emissions and contributes the same proportion of GDP, then the

200 allocation is absolutely even, and the Lorenz curve is a straight 45∘line, other-wise inequality exists

201 (Wu et al., 2017). A higher Gini coefficient (i.e., closer to 1) reflects a more uneven distribution.

202 Based on the estimated production-based and consumption-based pollutant emissions and value

203 added, the Lorenz curve and Gini coefficient can be calculated for production-based and

204 consumption-based perspective, measuring environmental inequality associated with the inter-

205 provincial trade (Guan et al., 2019). The production-based curve reflects whether a province

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206 produces the same proportion of value added while producing a certain proportion of pollutants

207 (within the province); the consumption-based curve reflects whether the consumption of a given

208 province contributes the same proportion of value added while causing a certain proportion of

209 pollution in that and other provinces.

210 2.4.2 Exposure-based index

211 The limitation of traditional emission-based indexes is that they can only reflect inequality based

212 on the emissions rather than the pollution exposure which is more related to the human health.

213 To address this issue, we defined two additional indexes to evaluate unequal transfers of premature

214 deaths, economic losses and value added among provinces (Zhang et al., 2018a; Zhang et al.,

215 2018b), considering that the inter-provincial production and consumption may let some provinces

216 suffer the health and economic losses caused by air pollution through supplying high-polluting

217 products to other provinces to gain corresponding economic benefits.

218 The two indexes are Death-GDP index (DG), Loss-GDP index (LG), which were calculated as follows.

219 𝐷𝐺 𝑟𝑠 = 𝑌 𝑟𝑠 ⁄𝐺 𝑟𝑠 , 𝐿𝐺 𝑟𝑠 = 𝑀𝑟𝑠 ⁄𝐺 𝑟𝑠 , (12)

220 where 𝑌 𝑟𝑠 is premature deaths in province r driven by province s’s consumption, 𝑀𝑟𝑠 refers to

221 economic losses that occurred in province r due to province s’s consumption, 𝐺 𝑟𝑠 is value added in

222 province r triggered by province s.

223 The DG index was used to represent the number of premature deaths per unit of GDP transfer,

224 while the LG index was used to represent the economic losses due to the premature deaths as a

225 percentage of trade-related GDP gains. Great unfairness associated with inter-provincial trades is

226 expected when the DG or LG index is large (i.e., large transfers of premature deaths and economic

227 losses but with small transfers of value added).

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228 Our purpose is to assess the impact of air pollution control on trade-associated environmental

229 inequality in China during 2012–2017. Therefore, we fixed the meteorological conditions, trade

230 structure and socioeconomic data, and only modulated the pollutant emission from 2012 to 2017,

231 to simplify our estimation to be focused on the evaluation of whether environmental inequality

232 was alleviated by the emission controls.

233 3. Results

234 3.1 Air pollution control mitigates the inter-provincial transfers of pollutant emissions

235 The trade-associated transfers of pollutant emissions were estimated by taking the difference of

236 the production-based and consumption-based pollutant emissions, as shown in Fig.2. Provinces

237 with well-developed economy such as Zhejiang, Guangdong and Shanghai had the largest net

238 imported emissions driven by the inter-provincial trade (i.e., the consumption-based emissions

239 minus production-based emissions > 0), while provinces with heavy industry or manufacturing

240 economy such as Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Shandong and Shanxi had the largest net exported

241 emissions (i.e., the consumption-based emissions minus production-based emissions < 0) ,except

242 for NMVOC and NH3 emissions.In terms of absolute transfers, the trade transfer volume of SO2

243 emissions was the largest (by up to 1823kt in 2012) among all five pollutants due to its large

244 baseline emissions. From the proportion of the trade transfer volume in total emissions, primary

245 PM2.5 and NH3 were the most pronounced. For example, the transfer volume of NH3 accounted for

246 10.8% of the total NH3 emissions in 2012. The NMVOC emissions suffered the least influences of

247 trade transfer because the gap between the production-based and consumption-based NMVOC

248 emissions of the provinces was small.

249 Air pollution control reduced both production-based and consumption-based pollutant emissions

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250 in the provinces from 2012 to 2017, particularly for SO2 which descreased the most by 56% and

251 following by primary PM2.5,NOx. NMVOC and NH3 emissions in a few provinces had an upward

252 trend.Due to such effective controls, the inter-provincial transfers of pollutant emissions were

253 simultaneously mitigated for SO2, NOx, primary PM2.5, by 50.1%, 46.9%, and 32.2%, respectively.

254 However, the controls in reducing inter-provincial transferred NMVOC and NH3 emissions was

255 much less effective which only decreased by 2.5%. The top net imported emission provinces in

256 2017 were similar as that in 2012 (i.e., Guangdong, Zhejiang for SO2), but the amount of imported

257 emissions has been substantially reduced. For example, the net transfer of SO2 in Guangdong

258 decreased from 272.9kt in 2012 to 127.3kt in 2017.The top exported emission provinces (i.e., Inner

259 Mongolia, Hebei for NOx ) were generally similar in 2012 and 2017.

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260
261 Fig.2. Production-based and consumption-based pollutant emissions of China’s 31 provinces
262 during 2012-2017. The left side of axis 0 is the pollutant emission in 2012, and the right side is
263 emission in 2017.The figures on both sides represent the difference between consumption-based
264 emissions and production-based emissions.

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265 3.2 Emission-based environmental inequality

266
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267 Fig.3.The Lorenz curves and Gini coefficient of pollution emissions for Chinese 31 provinces during

268 2012-2017.

269 The Lorenz curves and Gini coefficients were used to evaluate the environmental inequality implied

270 by the pollution emissions,reflecting the relationship between pollution emissions and economic

271 contribution of Chinese 31 provinces. In 2012, the production-based Gini coefficient of China's SO2,

272 NOx, primary PM2.5, NMVOC, NH3 were estimated to be 0.33, 0.20, 0.27, 0.12, 0.32, respectively,

273 revealing the unbalance between the regional emissions and economic contribution. The Gini

274 values for production-based accounting were greater than that for consumption-based accounting,

275 implying large discrepancy of economic benefits of per unit emission produced by each province,

276 while consumption-based pollution and the corresponding economic contributions were more

277 evenly distributed among provinces. Taking production-based SO2 emission in 2012 as an example,

278 the right end of Lorenz curve covers provinces of Yunnan, Shanxi, Chongqing, Ningxia, Guizhou,

279 which are rich in resources or less-developed areas. More than 20% SO2 was emitted by these 5

280 provinces, and they only contributed 8% GDP. The provinces located near the origin are Beijing,

281 Guangdong, Jiangsu, Tianjin, Fujian, Shanghai and other developed provinces. As can be seen from

282 Fig.3, when the cumulative share of SO2 emission is 7%, the cumulative value of economic benefit

283 has reached 20%.

284 The emission reduction during 2012-2017 led to even larger Gini coefficients, indicating more

285 significant imbalance of pollutant emissions and value added among the 31 provinces. The reason

286 might be associated with the different control levels of air pollution among provinces. The

287 developed provinces contribute the same economic benefits with less emissions, while more

288 stringent emission reduction for developed provinces widened the gap among provinces, making

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289 the Gini coefficient increase. For example, for 3% value added contributed by Beijing, the

290 proportion of production-based SO2 dropped from 0.47% in 2012 to 0.17% in 2017. Ningxia

291 contributed 0.45% value added, with the proportion of production-based SO2 increasing from 1.2%

292 in 2012 to 2.4% in 2017.

293 Noted that Gini coefficient, the emission-based index, only considers the distribution relationship

294 between emissions and value added. The environmental inequality associated with human health

295 should be evaluated by the exposure-based index which considers the PM2.5-related health and

296 economic impact, as discussed in the following section.

297 3.3 Transfers of premature deaths and economic losses

298 The air pollution control actions led to substantial reduction of PM2.5-related premature deaths in

299 29 provinces from 1.81 million in 2012 to 1.45 million in 2017, as well as the corresponding

300 economic losses decreased from 1,843 billion RMB in 2012 to 1,467 billion RMB in 2017, as shown

301 in Table S2. Our estimated PM2.5-related deaths are quite similar to other estimates, such as Liu et

302 al.(2020) which reported the 2.10 million in 2015.The total production-based deaths in 29

303 provinces were esitmated to be 1.22 million in 2012 and 0.94 million in 2017(noted that deaths

304 due to export and direct emissions were not included),which were the same as the total

305 consumption-based deaths.The corresponding economic losses were 1,233 billion RMB in 2012

306 and 949 billion RMB in 2017, as summarized in Table S3.

307 Fig.4 presents the trade-associated imported (i.e., consumption-based deaths are greater than

308 production-based deaths, marked in blue-shaded) or exported deaths (i.e., production-based

309 deaths are greater than consumption-based deaths, marked in red-shaded) in each

310 province.Among all provinces, Henan exhibited the most pronounced trade-associated net
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311 exported deaths, where suffered deaths caused by consumption of 29 provinces was 129,532 for

312 2012,but its consumption led to much fewer deaths (97,049) in 29 provinces. That is probably due

313 to its serious pollution,dense population and abundance inter-provincial export(Zhao et al.,

314 2017).In contrast, Shandong and Zhejiang were two provinces with pronounced trade-associated

315 imported deaths. The number of consumption-based deaths in Zhejiang in 2012 was 1.5 times that

316 of production-based deaths. With the control of pollutants, production-based deaths and

317 consumption-based deaths in each province decreased, though the import and export relationship

318 was basically unchanged. However, changes of net imported or exported deaths during 2012-2017

319 varied by province. For example, the gap between production-based and consumption-based

320 deaths in Guizhou fell from 2,768 to 106, and the net imported deaths of Hebei rose from 69 to

321 1,088.

322 The main arraws of Fig.4 indicated the flows of premature deaths and economic losses among

323 provinces. The largest flow of economic losses occurred between Shandong and Jiangsu in

324 2012,and Shandong’s consumption triggered an economic loss of 12 billion RMB in Jiangsu. In

325 addition,Hubei’s consumption had a harmful effect on Hunan and caused the most premature

326 deaths, with 12,998 for 2012.It can be the combined results of pollution transmission and inter-

327 provincial trade (Zhang et al., 2017). In terms of the flows represented on Fig. 4, the major transfers

328 occurred between Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong and their neighbouring provinces.The

329 transfers between Sichuan and Chongqing were also noteworthy. Guangdong was a major

330 destination of transfers of premature deaths and economic losses.

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331

332 Fig.4. Inter-provincial transfers of PM2.5-related premature deaths and economic losses during

333 2012-2017. The red shading corresponds to provinces whose production-based deaths/losses are

334 greater. Arrows between provinces denote the larger inter-provincial transfers, with the number

335 of deaths exceeds 2,500,and economic losses exceed 2.5 billion RMB.The beginning of arrows are

336 consuming provinces, and the end are areas where deaths and economic losses occurred. The

337 thickness of arrows indicates the number of transfers. The geographical location and name of the

338 provinces are shown in Fig.S1.

339 To investigate the proportion of transferred deaths in the total deaths by province, we calculated

340 two ratios from both production and consumption aspectes. First, the production-based ratio was

341 estimated by using the deaths transferred to a specific province from the other 28 provinces

342 divided by total production-based deaths of this province, aiming to quantify the pecentage of the
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343 production-based deaths driven by the consumption of other provinces.Similarly, the

344 consumption-based ratio was estimated by using the deaths transferred from a specific province

345 to the other 28 provinces divided by total consumption-based deaths of this province, aiming to

346 quantify the pecentage of the consumption-based deaths transferred to other provinces.

347 Apparently, both ratios represent the strength of transferred deaths.

348 Results suggest that the production-based ratio varied from 32.4% in Xinjiang to 85.2% in Hainan

349 for 2012, while consumption-based ratio varied from 28.1% in Sichuan to 90.6% in Hainan for 2012,

350 as summarized in Table 1. Hainan, Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai were notable with high transfer ratios,

351 implying that the production-based premature deaths in these provinces were more attributed to

352 consumption of other provinces and only a small part of health losses caused by consumption of

353 these provinces occurred locally. Another interesting finding is that both ratios decreased in most

354 provinces from 2012 to 2017, indicating that traded-related deaths transfers were weakened due

355 to the pollution controls.

356 Table 1. Summary of production/ consumption-based transfer ratio

Production-based ratio Consumption-based ratio

Provinces
2012 2017 2012 2017

Beijing 83.6% 85.5% 82.4% 83.4%

Tianjin 81.5% 80.2% 88.2% 85.4%

Hebei 66.0% 60.1% 66.0% 60.8%

Shanxi 68.8% 62.2% 73.3% 68.8%

Inner Mongolia 69.1% 67.0% 83.0% 80.7%

Liaoning 70.9% 65.1% 70.5% 63.5%

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 Jilin 69.5% 66.4% 65.6% 60.4%

Heilongjiang 55.9% 46.3% 67.8% 58.4%

Shanghai 79.9% 79.6% 84.7% 83.9%

Jiangsu 72.0% 66.9% 73.8% 71.7%

Zhejiang 60.1% 61.2% 72.7% 73.8%

Anhui 76.2% 72.3% 72.1% 71.3%

Fujian 68.4% 64.1% 73.6% 70.1%

Jiangxi 71.1% 66.6% 64.1% 59.4%

Shandong 54.9% 51.0% 62.8% 58.7%

Henan 68.1% 66.3% 57.4% 54.0%

Hubei 53.1% 53.3% 59.9% 57.4%

Hunan 65.4% 59.8% 54.3% 52.0%

Guangdong 63.6% 61.2% 52.3% 48.8%

Guangxi 73.1% 70.6% 56.3% 50.6%

Hainan 85.2% 87.9% 90.6% 90.4%

Chongqing 53.6% 50.3% 62.8% 58.0%

Sichuan 45.0% 39.5% 28.1% 24.8%

Guizhou 60.0% 52.8% 55.8% 52.6%

Yunnan 40.9% 43.7% 51.7% 48.8%

Shaanxi 63.1% 57.2% 62.4% 55.8%

Gansu 67.8% 62.4% 63.1% 56.2%

Ningxia 71.7% 70.3% 83.7% 78.9%

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 Xinjiang 32.4% 32.7% 55.2% 49.4%

357 Notes:Production-based ratio:the numerator is the number of a given province’s deaths caused by

358 consumption of the other 28 provinces,and the denominator is production-based deaths of this

359 province. Consumption-based ratio: the numerator is the number of deaths in the other 28

360 provinces caused by a given province’s consumption,and the denominator is consumption-based

361 deaths in this province.

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362 3.4 Exposure-based environmental inequality

363 Fig.5. The matrixes of Death-GDP index and Loss-GDP index among Chinese provinces.Each cell of

364 panels (a) and (b) represents the number of premature deaths(that occurred in the province shown

365 in the row)per unit of value added.Each cell of panels (c) and (d) represents the percentage of

366 economic losses (due to the premature deaths that occurred in the province shown in the row) to

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367 value added (which transfers from the province shown in the column). The same index shares a

368 color bar. Darker colors signify higher index values and greater levels of inequality.

369 Province abbreviations are BJ,Beijing; TJ,Tianjin; HB,Hebei; SX,Shanxi; NM,Inner Mongolia;

370 LN,Liaoning; JL,Jilin; HL,Heilongjiang; SH,Shanghai; JS,Jiangsu; ZJ,Zhejiang; AH,Anhui; FJ,Fujian;

371 JX,Jiangxi; SD,Shandong; HE,Henan; UB,Hubei; HU,Hunan; GD,Guangdong; GX,Guangxi; HA,Hainan;

372 CQ,Chongqing; SC,Sichuan; GZ,Guizhou; YN,Yunnan; SA,Shaanxi; GS,Gansu; NX,Ningxia; SJ,Xinjiang.

373 The estimated Death-GDP index and Loss-GDP index in 2012 and 2017 are presented in Fig.5.

374 Higher index values indicate more serious imbalances between pollution effect and economic

375 benefits. The averaged Death-GDP value of all transfers was 5.46 deaths per 100 million RMB,

376 indicating that the provincial 100 million RMB value added came at the cost of 5.46 premature

377 deaths in 2012,which fell to 3.91 deaths in 2017.As the consumption provinces, the averaged DG

378 values of Hubei, Hunan, Hebei were generally larger than other provinces, and the average value

379 in Guangdong, Fujian and Hainan was relatively low. From the producer's perspective, Sichuan,

380 Henan and Hubei suffered more health losses. We found that the inequality between neighboring

381 provinces was the most serious, probably due to pollution transmission. For example, Hunan

382 suffered 98.9 premature deaths while earning 100 million RMB GDP from Hubei. The diagonal

383 values in the matrix were low, indicating that the pollution effect of unit economic growth driven

384 by local consumption was small (Lu et al., 2019).

385 The LG value followed a similar distribution pattern to the DG value (Nansai et al., 2020).The

386 average proportion of economic losses to value added of all transfers was 5% in 2012 and dropped

387 to 3.6% in 2017. The province pairs with the higher LG index score for 2012 were Hubei-

388 Hunan(85%),Chongqing-Sichuan(56%),Guizhou-Sichuan(42%),and Hunan-Guangxi(40.5%).

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389

390 Fig.6.The change rate of DG and LG index during 2012-2017. A negative value indicates a decrease

391 of DG and LG index in 2017, compared to 2012. Darker colors signify the greater drop.The growth

392 of index is shown in white.Since the data of economic loss associated with one case of premature

393 death for 2012 and 2017 are the same, the change rate of DG and LG index are the same, too. The

394 change rate of Ningxia - Tianjin, Ningxia - Shandong and Jilin - Chongqing was not considered

395 because the premature deaths of the three transfers were approaching 0 in 2017.

396 In total,the average change rate of all transfers was -30%. From the perspective of transfer pairs,

397 Ningxia - Hebei decreased the most.Only a few transfer pairs showed an increase from 2012 to

398 2017,such as Heilongjiang- Heilongjiang,Anhui-Xinjiang,Guizhou-Chongqing.Take Heilongjiang -

399 Heilongjiang transfer as an example, although the PM2.5 concentration in Heilongjiang decreased

400 from 2012 to 2017, the contribution proportion of Heilongjiang’s consumption to the local PM2.5

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401 concentration increased.

402 The impact of air pollution control on every transfer relation was different. In order to explore

403 which industry dominated trade relationship had higher implied inequality, or a greater decline in

404 inequality, we used the spearman correlation coefficient which is commonly used to estimate the

405 correlation between two variables. As shown in Table 2, we calculated the correlation in all

406 transfers between DG index and the proportion of each industry’s transfer volume in the total

407 economic transfer volume. The DG value for 2012 showed a strong correlation with Metals

408 smelting and pressing, Electricity, heat production and supply. The transfers with a larger

409 proportion of these two industries caused more premature deaths per unit of GDP transfer. The

410 decrease rate of DG was significantly negatively correlated with Petroleum processing, coking and

411 nuclear fuel processing, and positively correlated with other industrial. That is, for the transfer with

412 a larger share of other industries’ volume, the DG dropped even more.

413 Table 2. The correlation in all transfers between DG index and the proportion of each industry’s

414 transfer volume in the total transfer volume

Agriculture, Petroleum and Petroleum processing, Nonmetal Metals

Spearman’s

hunting, forestry natural gas coking and nuclear Chemicals mineral smelting and

correlation

and fishing exploitation fuel processing products pressing

the decrease

-0.058 -0.111** -0.219** 0.079* 0.099** 0.057

rate of DG$

DG value

0.261** -0.151** -0.105** 0.139** 0.196** 0.373**

for 2012

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 Electricity, heat Transport,

Spearman’s Gas, water production

Other industrial production and Construction warehousing Services

correlation and supply

supply and post

the decrease

0.210** 0.081* 0.086* 0.048 -0.092** 0.067

rate of DG$

DG value

0.068* 0.372** -0.184** -0.11** -0.042 -0.228**

for 2012

415 * p<0.05, ** p<0.01

416 $ It changes the decrease rate of DG into absolute values (excluding the increase rate of DG).

417 The change of DG and LG index,that is,the change in the number of transferred deaths, reflected

418 the health benefits associated with pollution control. The number of deaths implied in most

419 transfer relationships decreased during 2012-2017, which can be regarded as tending to absolute

420 fairness(the number of transboundary premature deaths is 0).In addition, Table S4 shows the

421 standard deviation of DG and LG index. From 2012 to 2017, the standard deviation and mean value

422 decreased,indicating that the distribution of DG and LG values was more concentrated, and it can

423 be considered closer to relative fairness(transferring per unit of value added implies the same

424 health and economic losses for all pairs of provinces).In conclusion, air pollution control weakend

425 environmental inequality associated with human health in China during 2012–2017.

426 4. Conclusions

427 This paper aims to address the scientific question that how the air pollution control impacts on

428 inter-provincial environmental inequality. We found that different perspectives measuring

429 environmental inequality may lead to different conclusions. Previous studies on environmental
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430 inequality have focused on pollution emissions, ignoring PM2.5 concentrations and health effects.

431 Here we evaluated the unfairness caused by inter-provincial production and consumption, in terms

432 of pollution emissions, premature deaths and economic losses, which is more comprehensive and

433 reasonable.

434 The results indicate that production-based and consumption-based pollution emissions showed a

435 decline trend in all provinces from 2012 to 2017, except for NMVOC and NH3 emissions in some

436 provinces, and the inter-provincial transfers of emissions were mitigated along with the reduciton

437 of pollutant emissions.Meanwhile, the imbalance distribution of pollutants emission and value

438 added in different provinces existed and aggravated from 2012 to 2017.In particular, Shanxi,

439 Ningxia, Guizhou and other provinces contributed more emissions, but only a small part of GDP.

440 These regions might need to accelerate the transformation of industrial structure and reduce

441 emission intensity. However, from the perspective of health and economic impact of pollution, air

442 pollution control reduced the environmental unfairness implied in inter-provincial transfer. The

443 transferred number of premature deaths and economic losses of most pairs of provinces decreased

444 significantly during 2012-2017.The provincial 100 million RMB value added came at the cost of 5.46

445 premature deaths in 2012,which fell to 3.91 deaths in 2017.The average proportion of economic

446 losses to value added of all transfers was 5% in 2012 and dropped to 3.6% in 2017. The value of

447 the 2012 Loss-GDP index varied from 0.29% (Hainan-Hainan) to 85% (Hubei-Hunan).

448 Each province is both producer and consumer; it increases the environmental risks of other

449 provinces while bearing the health and economic losses caused by other provinces' consumption.

450 As a producer, one can restrict trade relations with high environmental unfairness and choose more

451 friendly trade partners to avoid exchanging human health for value added. As consumers,

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452 provinces can undertake the due obligations, such as providing special financial compensation for

453 mistreated provinces. Our results reflect the number of transferred premature deaths and

454 economic losses between provinces, which are more refined than previous regional studies. The

455 detailed inter-provincial transfer matrix can provide guidance for inter-provincial economic

456 collaboration, and serve as the reference and foundation for the establishment of inter-provincial

457 air pollution responsibility sharing mechanism and compensation mechanism.

458 Our study suffers the following limitations. Since we fixed the meteorological conditions, trade

459 structure and socioeconomic data, the results of the transfers of premature deaths and economic

460 losses are not real for 2012-2017.Our study only estimated the number of PM2.5-related premature

461 deaths, while air pollution also has malignant effects on human mental health and physical

462 function. We only considered the economic losses due to the PM2.5-related premature deaths, not

463 including crop losses, cleaning costs and other losses caused by air pollution. Further research is

464 needed to study real and objective inter-provincial environmental inequality under the premise of

465 comprehensive consideration of human health and economic losses. Attempts may also be made

466 to analyze the environmental inequalities borne by different groups due to their exposure to

467 different levels of air pollution in future.

468 Funding: This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant

469 number 41975022]; and the Foundation for Innovative Research Groups of the Hubei Natural

470 Science Foundation [grant number 2020CFA003].

471 Acknowledgements

472 The authors express their gratitude to Weidong Liu(Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural

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473 Resources Research, CAS, China)for providing MRIO table, Michael Brauer (The University of British

474 Columbia, Canada) for sharing PM2.5 estimates, and Richard Burnett(Population Studies Division,

475 Health Canada, Canada)for sharing the GEMM parameters.

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