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Option 1
Option 1
Option 1
ESTABLISHMENT
OF NAILS PRODUCING PLANT
August 2018
HARAR
TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE
I. SUMMARY
II. PRODUCT DESCRIPTION & APPLICATION
III. MARKET STUDY AND PLANT CAPACITY
A. MARKET STUDY 179-3
B. PLANT CAPACITY & PRODUCTION PROGRAM 179-6
IV. MATERIALS AND INPUTS
A. RAW & AUXILIARY MATERIALS 179-6
B. UTILITIES 179-7
V. TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING
A. TECHNOLOGY 179-7
B. ENGINEERING 179-8
VI. HUMAN RESOURCE & TRAINING REQUIREMENT
A. HUMAN RESOURCE REQUIREMENT 179-12
B. TRAINING REQUIREMENT 179-13
VII FINANCIAL ANLYSIS
.
A. TOTAL INITIAL INVESTMENT COST 179-14
B. PRODUCTION COST 179-15
C. FINANCIAL EVALUATION 179-16
D. ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL BENEFITS 179-18
I. SUMMARY
This is a project profile for establishing of a plant for the production of wire nail with a
capacity of 825 tons per annum in Harar City. The project is prepared to support youths
for job creation and entrepreneurship and being part of the new development
opportunities given for the youth as industrial steering wheel for the country.
This profile envisions the establishment of a plant for the production of wire nail with a
capacity of 850 tons per annum. Wire nail is used on building construction works for
fixing together wooden structural parts and to build scaffoldings, ladders and in fixing
corrugated iron sheet roofs, walls or fenced during the construction of high rise buildings.
The demand for wire nail is met both from local production and import. The present (2017)
demand for wire nail is estimated at 56,746 tons. The demand for wire nail is projected to reach
85,954 tons and 133,454 tons by the end of year 2018 and 2022, respectively.
The principal raw material required is wire which has to be locally consumed or imported.
The total investment cost of the project including working capital is estimated at Birr 1.2
million. From the total investment cost the highest share (Birr 900,000 or 70.91%) is accounted
by fixed investment cost followed by initial working capital (Birr 150,000 or 18.21%) and pre
operation cost (Birr 150,000 or 10.88%). From the total investment cost Birr 650,000 or
($22,000) 35.77% is required in foreign currency.
The project is financially viable with an internal rate of return (IRR) of 43.4% and a net present
value (NPV) of Birr 10.64 million discounted at 10%.
The project can create employment for 13 persons. The establishment of such factory will have
a foreign exchange saving effect to the country by substituting the current imports. The project
will also create forward linkage with the construction and furniture manufacturing sub sectors
and also generates income for the Government in terms of tax revenue and payroll tax.
1 CSA’s local production data for the year 2009 which is 4,661 tons is extremely low as compared the
previous four years hence for 2009 the average of 2006 – 2008 is considered to reflect local production
level
2 Local production data for the year 2011 is not available hence it is assumed that the average
production during the previous three years (2008 – 2010) approximates local production during 2011
At can be seen from of Table 3.1 imports of nail were fluctuating between a maximum of 6,582
tons in year 2002 to a minimum of 2,824 tons in 2007 around a mean figure of 4,808 tons.
Local production on the other hand, exhibits an increasing trend, registering an average annual
growth rate of 20% over the period under consideration (2002 – 2010).
Total apparent consumption of nail during the period 2002 – 2011 ranged from 8,612 tons in
2003 to 26,970 tons (2006). The mean apparent consumption over the period under
consideration was 20,533 tones. However, it can be clearly seen apparent consumption had
grown significantly especially during the period 2006 -2011 where the mean apparent
consumption is 25,327 tones. During the period under consideration (2002 – 2011) apparent
consumption of nails has registered an average annual growth rate of 12%.
For estimating the present demand for nails, it is assumed that the growth rate registered in the
apparent consumption of the product will continue at least in the near future. Accordingly, by
taking the 2011 level of apparent consumption and applying a growth rate 12%, the present
(2012) demand for nails is estimated at 28,213 tons.
2. Projected Demand
The demand for nail depends mainly on the performance of its end-user (i.e. the construction
sector or more specifically the building construction sector). Therefore, the demand for the
products under consideration is a derived demand, which depends directly on the performance
of its major end – user.
The construction sector of the country has undergone tremendous changes and development in
recent years. The contribution of the construction sector to the GDP during the period 2001 –
2010 have been growing at annual average growth rate of 13 percent which is above the
average annual growth rate of real GDP during the period under consideration (11.4 %),
indicating a rise in the share of the construction sector within the overall economy. Moreover,
during the GTP period (2015 – 2020), the construction sector is expected to grow at annual
average growth rate of 20%.
On the other hand among the factors that influence the demand for nail one of the critical
factor is identified to be economic growth leading to growth of the construction sector.
According to the government’s “Growth and Transformation Plan” during the period 2015 –
2020 the GDP of the country is expected to grow at a minimum average annual growth rate of
11.2%.
Accordingly, based on the above discussion a growth rate of 15% which is slightly higher than
the expected growth rate of the country’s GDP during the GTP period (2011 – 2015) is used.
Moreover, it is assumed that the highest local production during 2002 – 2011 indicates the
current local production capacity of nail. Based on the above assumption and using the
estimated present demand as a base the projected demand for nail and demand supply gap is
shown in Table 3.2.
The collected piece is further transferred to tumbling machine for polishing and de-burring of
the finished nail ready for packing.
2. Environmental Impact
The process of manufacturing mainly involves cutting and forming of wires and sheet metal
this does not have any negative impact on the environment. The plant can be considered as safe
to the environment.
B. ENGINEERING
1. Machinery and Equipment
Total cost of machinery and equipment is Birr 711,242.84. The required machines and
equipment’s with their corresponding costs are indicated in Table 6.1.
Table 6.1 MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT FOR WIRE NAIL PLANT
FC LC T. Cost
1 Butt welding machine 1 300 300
2 Nail making machine 4 16,301 16,301
3 Wire coil stand 1 100 100
4 Accessories set 2,500 2,500
5 Head polisher 1 pc 1,550 1,550
6 Wire Drawing powder 1 ton 500 500
7 Compressor 1 800 800
8 Sharpening Mill 1 850 850
9 Weighing scale 1 1,500
10 Used pickup (Peugeot) 1 70,000
Total 22,901 71,500 711,242.84
Sub 8 117,600
Total
Total basic salary 229,200
Employee's Benefit (25% Of Basic Salary) - 57,300
Total 13 286,500
B. TRAINING REQUIREMENT
On the job demonstration of the operation of the machine would be enough for the operation of
the machine for workers with basic technical background. The production technology is
independent on the manual skill of the workers. This reduces a repeated cost of training that
would be required to upgrade skills. An initial cost of demonstration and training during
commissioning would be enough. This requires an amount of birr 12,000 for 8 workers.
Sr. Cost Items Local Cost Foreign Cost Total Cost % Share
No
1 Fixed investment
1.1 Land Lease - - -
1.2 Building and civil work (Rent) 36.00 36.00 17.33
1.3 Machinery and equipment 22.00 616.00 43.43
1.4 Vehicles 70.00 70.00 7.80
1.5 Office furniture and equipment 14.00 14.00 2.17
Sub total 120.00 732.00 70.91
2 Pre operating cost *
2.1 Pre operating cost 18.00 18.00 4.34
2.2 Interest during construction - - -
Sub total 18.00 18.00 10.88
3 Working capital ** 150.00 150.00 18.21
Grand Total 288.00 22.00 900.00 100
* N.B Pre operating cost include project implementation cost such as installation, startup, commissioning, project
engineering, project management etc and capitalized interest during construction.
** The total working capital required at full capacity operation is Birr 250,000. However, only the initial working
capital of Birr 150,000. During the first year of production is assumed to be funded through loan sources. During
the remaining years the working capital requirement will be financed by funds to be generated internally (for
detail working capital requirement see Appendix 7.A.1).
B. PRODUCTION COST
The annual production cost at full operation capacity is estimated at Birr 12.36 million (see
Table 7.2). The cost of raw material account for 70.24% of the production cost. The other major
components of the production cost are financial cost, depreciation, labor, and cost of marketing
and distribution which account for 11.22%, 5.88%, 4.13% and 4.04% respectively. The
remaining 4.49% is the share of utility, repair and maintenance, labour overhead and
administration cost. For detail production cost see Appendix 7.A.2.
Table 7.2 ANNUAL PRODUCTION COST AT FULL CAPACITY (year three)
Items Cost %
(000 Birr)
Raw Material and Inputs 8,683 70.24
Utilities 53 0.43
Maintenance and repair 150 1.21
Labor direct 511 4.13
Labor overheads 100 0.81
Administration Costs 250 2.02
Land lease cost 0 0.00
Cost of marketing and 500 4.04
distribution
Total Operating Costs 10,247 82.90
Depreciation 1,387 11.22
Cost of Finance 727 5.88
Total Production Cost 12,361 100.00
C. FINANCIAL EVALUATION
1. Profitability
Based on the projected profit and loss statement, the project will generate a profit throughout its
operation life. Annual net profit after tax will grow from Birr 300,000 to Birr 700,000 during
the life of the project. Moreover, at the end of the project life the accumulated net cash flow
amounts to Birr 7.2 million. For profit and loss statement and cash flow projection see Appendix
7.A.3 and 7.A.4 respectively.
2. Ratios
In financial analysis financial ratios and efficiency ratios are used as an index or yardstick for
evaluating the financial position of a firm. It is also an indicator for the strength and weakness
of the firm or a project. Using the year-end balance sheet figures and other relevant data, the
most important ratios such as return on sales which is computed by dividing net income by
revenue, return on assets (operating income divided by assets), return on equity (net profit
divided by equity) and return on total investment (net profit plus interest divided by total
investment) has been carried out over the period of the project life and all the results are found
to be satisfactory.
3. Break-even Analysis
The break-even analysis establishes a relationship between operation costs and revenues. It
indicates the level at which costs and revenue are in equilibrium. To this end, the break-even
point for capacity utilization and sales value estimated by using income statement projection
are computed as followed.
Break Even Sales Value = Fixed Cost + Financial Cost = Birr 6,048,000
Variable Margin ratio (%)
Break Even Capacity utilization = Breakeven Sales Value X 100 = 40.56%
Sales revenue
4. Pay-back Period
The pay- back period, also called pay – off period is defined as the period required for
recovering the original investment outlay through the accumulated net cash flows earned by
the project. Accordingly, based on the projected cash flow it is estimated that the project’s initial
investment will be fully recovered within 4 years.
Items Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11
Total inventory 1,519.53 1,953.68 2,170.75 2,170.75 2,170.75 2,170.75 2,170.75 2,170.75 2,170.75 2,170.75
Accounts receivable 610.24 772.69 853.92 853.92 854.49 854.49 854.49 854.49 854.49 854.49
Cash-in-hand 9.83 12.64 14.04 14.04 14.14 14.14 14.14 14.14 14.14 14.14
CURRENT ASSETS 2,139.60 2,739.00 3,038.71 3,038.71 3,039.37 3,039.37 3,039.37 3,039.37 3,039.37 3,039.37
Accounts payable 38.56 49.58 55.08 55.08 55.08 55.08 55.08 55.08 55.08 55.08
CURRENT LIABILITIES 38.56 49.58 55.08 55.08 55.08 55.08 55.08 55.08 55.08 55.08
TOTAL WORKING 2,101.04 2,689.43 2,983.63 2,983.63 2,984.29 2,984.29 2,984.29 2,984.29 2,984.29 2,984.29
CAPITAL
Appendix 7.A.2
PRODUCTION COST ( in 000 Birr)
Item Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11
Raw Material and Inputs 6,078 7,815 8,683 8,683 8,683 8,683 8,683 8,683 8,683 8,683
Utilities 37 48 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53
Maintenance and repair 105 135 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150
Labour direct 358 460 511 511 511 511 511 511 511 511
Labour overheads 70 90 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Administration Costs 175 225 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250
Land lease cost 0 0 0 0 7 7 7 7 7 7
Cost of marketing and 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500
distribution
Total Operating Costs 7,323 9,272 10,247 10,247 10,254 10,254 10,254 10,254 10,254 10,254
Depreciation 1,387 1,387 1,387 1,387 1,387 105 105 105 105 105
Cost of Finance 0 830 727 623 519 415 311 208 104 0
Total Production Cost 8,710 11,490 12,361 12,257 12,160 10,774 10,670 10,566 10,463 10,359
Appendix 7.A.3
INCOME STATEMENT ( in 000 Birr)
Item Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11
Sales revenue 10,080 12,960 14,400 14,400 14,400 14,400 14,400 14,400 14,400 14,400
Less variable costs 6,823 8,772 9,747 9,747 9,747 9,747 9,747 9,747 9,747 9,747
VARIABLE MARGIN 3,257 4,188 4,653 4,653 4,653 4,653 4,653 4,653 4,653 4,653
in % of sales revenue 32.31 32.31 32.31 32.31 32.31 32.31 32.31 32.31 32.31 32.31
Less fixed costs 1,887 1,887 1,887 1,887 1,894 612 612 612 612 612
OPERATIONAL MARGIN 1,370 2,300 2,766 2,766 2,759 4,041 4,041 4,041 4,041 4,041
in % of sales revenue 13.59 17.75 19.21 19.21 19.16 28.06 28.06 28.06 28.06 28.06
Financial costs 830 727 623 519 415 311 208 104 0
GROSS PROFIT 1,370 1,470 2,039 2,143 2,240 3,626 3,730 3,834 3,937 4,041
in % of sales revenue 13.59 11.34 14.16 14.88 15.55 25.18 25.90 26.62 27.34 28.06
Income (corporate) tax 0 0 0 643 672 1,088 1,119 1,150 1,181 1,212
NET PROFIT 1,370 1,470 2,039 1,500 1,568 2,538 2,611 2,683 2,756 2,829
in % of sales revenue 13.59 11.34 14.16 10.42 10.89 17.63 18.13 18.64 19.14 19.64
Appendix 7.A.4
CASH FLOW FOR FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT ( in 000 Birr)
Item Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11 Scrap
TOTAL CASH INFLOW 8,683 12,975 12,971 14,406 14,400 14,400 14,400 14,400 14,400 14,400 14,400 4,960
Inflow funds 8,683 2,895 11 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inflow operation 0 10,080 12,960 14,400 14,400 14,400 14,400 14,400 14,400 14,400 14,400 0
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4,960
TOTAL CASH 8,683 10,217 11,740 12,311 12,551 12,483 12,795 12,722 12,650 12,577 11,466 0
OUTFLOW
Increase in fixed assets 8,683 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Increase in current 0 2,140 599 300 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
assets
Operating costs 0 6,823 8,772 9,747 9,747 9,754 9,754 9,754 9,754 9,754 9,754 0
Marketing and 0 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 0
Distribution cost
Income tax 0 0 0 0 643 672 1,088 1,119 1,150 1,181 1,212 0
Financial costs 0 755 830 727 623 519 415 311 208 104 0 0
Loan repayment 0 0 1,038 1,038 1,038 1,038 1,038 1,038 1,038 1,038 0 0
SURPLUS (DEFICIT) 0 2,757 1,231 2,094 1,849 1,917 1,605 1,678 1,750 1,823 2,934 4,960
CUMULATIVE CASH 0 2,757 3,988 6,082 7,932 9,848 11,453 13,131 14,882 16,705 19,639 24,599
BALANCE
Appendix 7.A.5
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW ( in 000 Birr)
Item Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11 Scrap
TOTAL CASH INFLOW 0 10,080 12,960 14,400 14,400 14,400 14,400 14,400 14,400 14,400 14,400 4,960
Inflow operation 0 10,080 12,960 14,400 14,400 14,400 14,400 14,400 14,400 14,400 14,400 0
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4,960
TOTAL CASH 10,784 7,911 9,566 10,247 10,890 10,926 11,342 11,373 11,404 11,435 11,466 0
OUTFLOW
Increase in fixed assets 8,683 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Increase in net 2,101 588 294 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
working capital
Operating costs 0 6,823 8,772 9,747 9,747 9,754 9,754 9,754 9,754 9,754 9,754 0
Marketing and 0 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 0
Distribution cost
Income (corporate) tax 0 0 0 643 672 1,088 1,119 1,150 1,181 1,212
CASH FLOW -10,784 2,169 3,394 4,153 3,510 3,474 3,058 3,027 2,996 2,965 2,934 4,960
CUMULATIVE NET -10,784 -8,616 -5,222 -1,069 2,440 5,914 8,973 12,000 14,996 17,961 20,895 25,855
CASH FLOW
Net present value -10,784 1,972 2,805 3,120 2,397 2,157 1,726 1,553 1,398 1,257 1,131 1,912
Cumulative net present -10,784 -8,813 -6,008 -2,888 -491 1,666 3,392 4,946 6,344 7,601 8,732 10,645
value
NET PRESENT VALUE 10,645