Ch 3.

Part 2
Probability
 Classical Probability
The classical definition of probability
If there are m outcomes in a sample space, and all are equally likely of being the result of an
experimental measurement, then the probability of observing an event that contains s
𝑠𝑠
outcomes is given by 𝑚𝑚

Number of outcomes in event

P (E ) = .
Total number of outcomes in sample space
Example:
A die is rolled. S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Find the probability of Events (A, B, C , and E with A = {2, 4, 6}
C = {3, 6}
Outcome of rolling a 5).
B = {1, 3, 5}
3 1 3 1 2 1
P(A) = = , P(B) = = , P(C) = = 6 3
, and
6 2 6 2
1
P(E) = P( Rolling outcome {5}) = ≅ 0.167
6
 Classical Probability Cont.
Example:
Probability of drawing an ace from a deck of 52 cards.
sample space consists of 52 outcomes.
desired event (ace) is a set of 4 outcomes (number of desired outcomes is 4)
𝟒𝟒
therefore the probability of getting an ace is P (ace) =
𝟓𝟓𝟓𝟓
= 1/13 ≈0.0769 ≈ 7.7%
Example:
There are 5 Students, two of them are in mechanical Dept. and three are not.
a) what is the probability of picking 2 Mechanical students. S = {A, B, C, D, E}
b) what is the probability of picking 1 Mechanical and Mech. St. = {B, D}
1 non-Mechanical students
c) what is the probability of picking 2 non-Mechanical students. S = {(A,B), (A,C),
(A,D), (A,E), (B,C),
(B,D), (B,E), (C,D),
𝟐𝟐
a) P = 𝟐𝟐
=
𝟏𝟏
= 𝟎𝟎. 𝟏𝟏
𝟐𝟐
another Sol. 𝑷𝑷 = x = 𝟎𝟎. 𝟏𝟏
𝟏𝟏 (C,E), (D,E) }
𝟓𝟓 𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏 𝟓𝟓 𝟒𝟒
𝟐𝟐
𝟐𝟐
𝒙𝒙 𝟑𝟑𝟏𝟏 𝟔𝟔 𝟐𝟐 𝟑𝟑 𝟑𝟑 𝟐𝟐
b) P = 𝟏𝟏
𝟓𝟓 =
𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏
= 𝟎𝟎. 𝟔𝟔 another Sol. 𝑷𝑷 = ( x ) + ( x ) = 𝟎𝟎. 𝟔𝟔
𝟓𝟓 𝟒𝟒 𝟓𝟓 𝟒𝟒
𝟐𝟐
𝟑𝟑
𝟑𝟑 𝟑𝟑 𝟐𝟐
c) P = 𝟐𝟐
𝟓𝟓 =
𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏
= 𝟎𝟎. 𝟑𝟑 another Sol. 𝑷𝑷 = x = 𝟎𝟎. 𝟑𝟑 Verification → 0.1 + 0.6 + 0.3 = 1
𝟓𝟓 𝟒𝟒
𝟐𝟐
 Classical Probability Cont.
Example:
Suppose 10 motors have been fabricated but that, in spite of tests performed on the individual
motors, 2 will not operate satisfactorily. Two motors will be randomly selected to maneuver
each wireless capsule. Find the probability that
(a) both motors will operate satisfactorily in the capsule
(b) one motor will operate satisfactorily and the other will not
(c) both motors will not operate satisfactorily in the capsule

𝟖𝟖
𝟐𝟐𝟐𝟐 𝟖𝟖 𝟕𝟕 𝟓𝟓𝟓𝟓 𝟐𝟐𝟐𝟐
a) P = 𝟐𝟐
𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏 =
𝟒𝟒𝟒𝟒
another Sol. 𝑷𝑷 =
𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏
x =
𝟗𝟗 𝟗𝟗𝟗𝟗
=
𝟒𝟒𝟒𝟒
𝟐𝟐
𝟖𝟖 𝟐𝟐
𝒙𝒙 𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏 𝟖𝟖 𝟐𝟐 𝟐𝟐 𝟖𝟖 𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏
b) P = 𝟏𝟏
𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏
𝟏𝟏
=
𝟒𝟒𝟒𝟒
another Sol. 𝑷𝑷 = (
𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏
x )+
𝟗𝟗 𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏
x
𝟗𝟗
=
𝟒𝟒𝟒𝟒
𝟐𝟐
𝟐𝟐
𝟏𝟏 𝟐𝟐 𝟏𝟏 𝟏𝟏
c) P = 𝟐𝟐
𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏 =
𝟒𝟒𝟒𝟒
another Sol. 𝑷𝑷 =
𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏
x =
𝟗𝟗 𝟒𝟒𝟒𝟒
𝟐𝟐

𝟐𝟐𝟐𝟐 𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏 𝟏𝟏 𝟒𝟒𝟒𝟒

Verification →
𝟒𝟒𝟒𝟒
+ 𝟒𝟒𝟒𝟒+ 𝟒𝟒𝟒𝟒 = 𝟒𝟒𝟒𝟒 = 1
 The axioms of probability

Example:
If an experiment has the three possible and mutually exclusive outcomes A, B, and
C, check in each case whether the assignment of probabilities is permissible:
(a) P(A) = 1/3, P(B) = 1/3, and P(C) = 1/3. The assignment of probabilities is permissible.
(b) P(A) = 0.64, P(B) = 0.38, and P(C) = − 0.02. The assignment is not permissible.
(c) P(A) = 0.35, P(B) = 0.52, and P(C) = 0.26. The assignment is not permissible.
(d) P(A) = 0.57, P(B) = 0.24, and P(C) = 0.19. The assignment of probabilities is permissible.

𝟔𝟔 𝟑𝟑 𝟑𝟑
P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) = +
𝟔𝟔 𝟔𝟔 𝟔𝟔
𝟒𝟒 𝟑𝟑 𝟐𝟐
P(A U C) = P(A) + P(C) ≠ +
𝟔𝟔 𝟔𝟔 𝟔𝟔
 General addition rule for probability

𝟔𝟔 𝟑𝟑 𝟑𝟑 𝟎𝟎
P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B) = + −
𝟔𝟔 𝟔𝟔 𝟔𝟔 𝟔𝟔
𝟒𝟒 𝟑𝟑 𝟐𝟐 𝟏𝟏
P(A U C) = P(A) + P(C) - P(A ∩ C) = + −
𝟔𝟔 𝟔𝟔 𝟔𝟔 𝟔𝟔

Example:
If the probabilities are 0.87, 0.36, and 0.29 that, while under warranty, a new car will require
repairs on the engine, gear box, or both, what is the probability that a car will require one or
the other or both kinds of repairs under the warranty?

Substituting these given values into the formula of Theorem 3.6, we get
0.87 + 0.36 – 0.29 = 0.94
 Probability rule of the complement

Example:
There are 5 red chips, 4 blue chips, and 6 black chips
in a basket. Find the probability of randomly
selecting a chip that is not blue.
P (selecting a blue chip) = 4 ≈ 0.267
15
4 11
P (not selecting a blue chip) =1− = ≈ 0.733
15 15
Conditional Probability
 Conditional Probability
Example:
Suppose that 500 machine parts are inspected before they are shipped, that I denotes that a
machine part is improperly assembled, D denotes that it contains defective components, and the
distribution of the 500 machine parts among the various categories is as shown in the Venn
diagram.
1- Calculate the probability of getting a defective.

2- Calculate the probability of getting a defective part if the choice is restricted to the machine
parts that are improperly assembled.
500

1-

2- P ( D |I ) = N(D ∩ I ) / N(I )
= 10 / 30 = 1/3
If we want P ( I |D ) = N(D ∩ I ) / N(D )
= 10 / 15 = 2/3
 Conditional Probability
Conditional Probability

P (B |A) = P(A ∩ B) / P(A )

Example : A recent survey asked 100 people if they thought women in the armed forces
should be permitted to participate in combat. The results of the survey are shown.
a. Find the probability that the
respondent answered yes (Y), given that
the respondent was a female (F).
b. Find the probability that the respondent
was a male (M), given that the respondent
answered no (N).
8
P ( F and Y ) 100 8 4
P (Y F )
= = = =
a- P(F ) 50 50 25
100
18
P ( N and M ) 100 = 18 = 3
b- P(M N )
= =
P(N ) 60 60 10
100
A recent survey asked 100 people if they thought women in the armed forces
should be permitted to participate in combat. The results of the survey are
shown.
a. Find the probability that the
respondent answered yes (Y), given
that the respondent was a female (F).
b. Find the probability that the
respondent was a male (M), given
that the respondent answered no (N).
8
P ( F and Y ) 100 8 4
a- P (Y F ) =
= = =
P(F ) 50 50 25
100
18
P ( N and M ) 18 3
b- P ( M N ) = 100 =
= =
P(N ) 60 60 10
100
 Conditional Probability Cont.
General multiplication rule of probability

Example:
The supervisor of a group of 20 construction workers wants to get the opinion of 2 of them (to
be selected at random) about certain new safety regulations. If 12 workers favor the new
regulations and the other 8 are against them, what is the probability that both of the workers
chosen by the supervisor will be against the new safety regulations?

Set A: all outcomes where first worker is against, and Set B: all outcomes where second worker is
against Desire 𝑃𝑃 (𝐴𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝐵) = 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴) ∙ 𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵|𝐴𝐴) = (8/20)x(7/19) = 14/95

Special product rule

of probability

Example: What is the probability of getting two heads in two flips of a balanced coin?
Since the probability of heads is½ for each flip and the two flips are not physically
connected, we treat them as independent. The probability is ½ x ½ = ¼
Example: Two cards are drawn at random from an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards What is
the probability of getting two aces if
(a) the first card is replaced before the second card is drawn;
(b) the first card is not replaced before the second card is drawn;

Applying the
Multiplication Rule
Bayes’ theorem
Example: A manufacturer of tablets receives its LED screens from three different suppliers,
60% from supplier B1, 30% from supplier B2, and 10% from supplier B3. Also suppose that
95% of the LED screens from B1, 80% of those from B2, and 65% of those from B3 perform
according to specifications. We would like to know the probability that any one LED screen
received by the plant will perform according to specifications.
Bayes’ theorem

𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵r ∩ 𝐴𝐴)
𝑃𝑃 𝐵𝐵r 𝐴𝐴 =
𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴)

𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵r) ∙ 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴|𝐵𝐵r) Theorem 3.8

=
𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴)

𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵r) ∙ 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴|𝐵𝐵r)
= 𝑛𝑛 Theorem 3.10
� 𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵i) 𝑃𝑃 �(𝐴𝐴|𝐵𝐵i)
𝑖𝑖=1
Example: Four technicians regularly make repairs when breakdowns occur on an automated
production line. Janet, who services 20% of the breakdowns, makes an incomplete repair 1
time in 20; Tom, who services 60% of the breakdowns, makes an incomplete repair 1 time in
10; Georgia, who services 15% of the breakdowns, makes an incomplete repair 1 time in 10;
and Peter, who services 5% of the breakdowns, makes an incomplete repair 1 time in 20. For
the next problem with the production line diagnosed as being due to an initial repair that was
incomplete, what is the probability that this initial repair was made by Janet?

e.g. Janet (𝐵𝐵1) handles 20% of the breakdowns, Tom (𝐵𝐵2) handles 60%, Georgia (𝐵𝐵3) handles
15% , and Peter (𝐵𝐵4) handles 5%
Janet makes an incomplete repair 1 time in 20 (i.e. 5% of the time),Tom: 1 time in 10 (10%)
Georgia: 1 time in 10 (10%) , Peter: 1 time in 20 (5%).

= 0.114