Urban Studies (1978) .

15, 1 67-177

A Study of the Formal Structure of J . W.

Forrester's Urban Dynamics Model

L. Beumer, A. van Gameren, B . van der Hee and J . Paelinck

[First received April 1977 ; in final form September 1977]

Summary . The 118 basic equations of Forrester's urban dynamics model are analysed by forming them into qualitative
structural matrices. It is concluded that the endogenous dynamics of the system are determined by only 42 of the 118
stock variables, thus enabling the majority of the equations to be discarded . In the urban dynamics model, city growth
behaviour is found to depend essentially upon an attractiveness-mobility base which conditions labour and unemployment
change rates and these in turn influence change rates in housing and management and finally new and mature business
growth rates .

The dynamic model simulates urban development

Introduction
during 250 years distinguishing the following
Given a complex system of equations to be run as sectors :
a static or dynamic model, it is important to discover
1 . Underemployed sector
how the fundamental structure of the system devised
2 . Labour sector
finally functions . Indeed, submodels brought
3 . Managerial professional sector
do not spontaneously generate overall
4. sector
with acceptable interdependencies ; moreover
5 . Worker-housing sector
the behaviour of the model is always a function,
6 . Underemplohousing
Underemployed-housing sector
alia, of its fundamental structure, i .e . the
7 . New-enterprise sector
existence and intensity of a number of relations .
8 . Mature-business sector
This method of analysis is applied to Forrester's
urban dynamic model . After a description of this 9. Declining-industry sector
10. Tax sector
model's equations, its fundamental matrices will
11 . Job sector
be investigated, and their revealed properties criti-
cally commented on . The investigation starts from the model as repro-
duced in Urban Dynamics. Essentially, the model
consists of 150 equations . The variables in the
The Equations
model can be distinguished into endogenous and
The model describes the growth processes of urban exogenous variables . The exogenous variables can
areas . An urban area is defined by Forrester (1969) be subdivided into 84 constants and ten variables
as a system of essentially related sectors of industry, representing the instruments of economic policy.
housing and population, an extremely simplified In the model these instruments, which the govern-
image of urban reality . ment can apply to regulate the urban development

The authors are members of the staff of the Erasmus University, Rotterdam .
Our thanks go to Leen Hordijk, Peter Mastenbroek, and W . Wils for critical remarks ; all remaining errors are the authors'
responsibility.
167
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1 68 L . BEUMER, A VAN GAMEREN, B . VAN DER HEE AND J. PAELINCK
process, are denoted as `city-development pro-
grammes' . Examples of such programmes are, a
low-cost housing programme, a labour-training
programme, and a new-enterprise construction
programme . Such programmes are put into action
in the model by means of the so-called CLIP'
functions . In total there are ten equations in which
such a clip function occurs . Henceforth in this
study these equations will be left out of consideration
for they are not, in fact, determinants of the endo-
genous dynamics of the model . As Forrester himself
(1969, p . 211) says about these equations : `the
following equations . . . represent externally generated
influences on the urban system . . .' .
The endogenous variables can be distinguished
into flow and stock quantities . A flow quantity
refers to a change in the variable between a point
in time `t' and the next point in time, `t+ 1', while
a stock quantity reproduces the level of a variable
at a certain point in time `t' .
For our investigation it was necessary for the
model to be expressed in stock variables only,
because we wished to analyse the resulting dynamic
behaviour of these variables . Substitution, hereafter,
of equation (2) into equation (1) produces equation
(3), the last-mentioned now containing only stock
variables .
x t - xt _ 1 +Ax t _ 1 , t : identity of level change (1)
Axt _ 1 , t = ax,_ 1 : reaction equation
xt =(1+a)xt_1 : resulting levels
In equation (3), (1 +a) represents an (internal)
loop for the x-variable . After substitution of the
equations for flow variables into the equations for
stock variables, and leaving out of account the equa-
tions relating to city-development programmes, a
model of 118 equations remains .
At the same time, Forrester's notation has been
replaced with another, better suited to our purpose .
The following examples can be given :
UK =U,+DT(UA JK +UB,K +LTU,K
-UD JK -UTL JK)
has become
x 5 , t = x 5 , t _ 1 +DT(Ax6 ; t-1, t+Ax7 ; t-1, t
+Ax 8 ; t-,,t - Ax9 ; t-,,t - Axlo ; t-,,t)
1 Functions that `enter in action' at a given moment of the programme .
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Equations (4) and (5) give an expression for a
stock, subscripts J and K refer to points in time.
Equations (6) and (7) below represent expressions
for a flow ; subscript KL refers to period (t, t+1) .
The term DT used by Forrester in his system
dynamics refers to the time elapsed between points
of time t and t+ 1, hence it is not a variable, and
in our re-written model it is not, therefore, included
as an x-variable .
UAKL = (UK+ L K)(UAN)(AMMPK) (6)
has become
Ax6(t,t+1) = (xs,t+x3,t) * x11 * xi2,t (7)
Thus, the `loop' constituted by equations (1) and (2)
and conforming to the one described in Principles
of Systems (Forrester, 1968) is worked up in the
coefficients .
The model with 118 equations, with all variables
in the x-notation, now forms the point of departure
for our investigation .
In the model there are both linear and non-linear
relationships between the variables ; in the transition
from the model to the structural matrices, only their
existence or non-existence is taken into account,
not their nature or intensity . Relationships between
variables are marked in the matrices with a cross ; a
cross in position (i, j) of the matrix indicates that
equation `i' contains variable `j' . In that way, a
(2) qualitative structural matrix is created, sometimes
referred to as Boolean Jacobian matrix .
(3)
Because the model contains relationships between
pairs of stock variables both relating to time `t'
as well as between pairs of stock variables referring
to points of time `t' and `t-1', two structural
matrices will be constructed .
In matrix notation, the urban dynamics system
can now be written as a system of difference equations .
Btxt =At -,, txt-1 (8a)
e = e* (8b)
in which
(4) At-1, t = transition matrix : relations between stock
variables in `t' and `t-1' ; A(118, 118) ;
Bt = matrix of the relations between stock
variables at the same point of time `t' ;
(5) B(118, 118) ;
 A STUDY OF J . W. FORRESTER'S URBAN DYNAMICS MODEL
x, xt _ 1 = vectors of endogenous stock variables, at
times t and t-1 ; x(118, 1) ;
e = vector with the exogenous variables ;
e(94, 1) ;
e* = vector of given values of e ; e*(94, 1) .
When the relations between the variables in the
model have been written , in the above way, the
structure of the qualitative structural matrices A
and B can be examined . To avoid cumbersome
indices, the latter will be dropped whenever that
does not endanger the clarity of the text .
The Structure of the Matrices
The simplest matrix structure is the diagonal one .
When in equation (8a) both matrix A and matrix B
are diagonal, it can be proved that variable x ;, 2
(i = 1, 2, . . ., 118) is influenced only by variable x ;
at time t-1 (x 1 , 2 _ 1 ) and by exogenous factors ; the
remaining endogenous variables have no influence
on the level of variable x ; , , . For :
xt = B - 'Ax,- ,
or
x2 =Cxt _ 1
If matrices A and B are diagonal matrices, matrix
B -1 and thus C will also be diagonal, and the
structure of the relations between the variables will
be as indicated above .
A triangular matrix contains only elements on or
below the diagonal, or, after transposition, on or
above the diagonal .
If in equation (10) matrix C is triangular, the
following can be observed about the relations between
the variables .
Variable x l , t is influenced only by variable x1,,_1 ;
variable x 2,t is influenced by variable x2,t_1 and
variable x 1 ,,_ 1 ; variable x 3 , t is influenced by variable
0 The relationships in Fig . 2b can be reproduced in
C1
t t-1
Fig. 1
US-15/2 c
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169
x 3 , t _ 1 , variable x 2 , t _ 1 , and variable x 1 , t _ 1 , etc. The
schematic Fig. 1 may make this clear .
When it is possible to reduce a matrix to a triangular
matrix, the solution of the underlying model becomes
easier . Each row allows us to determine one
variable ; when the first variable (row 1) has been
determined, the second variable (row 2) can be
calculated on the basis of this first variable, the
third variable on the basis of the first two, and so on .
If in equation (10) matrix C is triangular, the
equation will describe a hierarchic system. A
hierarchic system may be defined as a system in
which a variable in row `i' in the system of `n'
equations transmits impulses to variables in the
rows `i+ 1' to `n', and receives impulses only from
the variables in the rows `1' to `i-1' . In other
words, the variables `1' to `i' are no longer influenced
by the variables in the rows `i + 1' to `n' . If a variable
`i' is placed high in the hierarchy it emits many
impulses but receives few itself. Such a variable may
be classed among the important variables of the
model . Variable `n' on the other hand, determined
(9) by equation `n' in the system, only receives impulses,
but does not emit impulses to other variables ; this
variable is on the lowest level in the hierarchy .
(10)
A simple example of a matrix C is the following :
1 2 3 4 1 4
1 x
2 x x 4 x
3 x x 3 x
4 x x x x
Fig . 2a Fig . 2b
Figure 2 reproduces matrix C in the original system
of four equations ; we call matrix C in Fig . 2 the
initial matrix. By the permutation of rows and
columns of the initial matrix it can be transformed
into a triangular matrix, as represented by Fig . 2b .
the flow diagram below :
Fig. 2c
1 70 L . BEUMER, A . VAN GAMEREN, B . VAN DER HEE AND J . PAELINCK

Variable 4 receives an impulse from variable 1 In respect of the example of Fig . 3c this rule means
and gives an impulse to variable 2 ; variable 3 that after simultaneous determinations of variables
receives an impulse from variable 1 . 1, 2, and 4, variable 3 can be calculated .
A second example is the following . A matrix is decomposable if it can be made
triangular or diagonal by permutation of rows and
columns ; a matrix is indecomposable if it cannot
I 2 3 4
be made triangular or diagonal . If a matrix is fully
1 x x x indecomposable, it is neither triangular nor diagonal,
nor can it be made so . For a matrix to be 'inde-
2 x x composable' a necessary and sufficient condition is
that a chain of coefficients unequal to zero can be
3 x x
formed in such a way that all columns and row
4 x x indices of that matrix occur at least once (diagonal
elements excluded), and that the length of the chain
Fig . 3a Fig. 3b is larger than or equal to the order of the matrix
(Paelinck and Nijkamp, 1975) .
The flow diagram of matrix 3a is represented by The chain referred to above from a matrix C
Fig . 3b . Unlike the flow diagram in Fig . 2c, this consists of elements c ij linked together in the
one appears to contain loops (closed chains), viz . following fashion :
1-4-1 and 1-4-2-1 . Mathematically it can be
Cij _ Cjk _4 Ckl *
proved that the presence of a loop makes it impossible
to triangulate a matrix (Kuenne, 1963, p . 8) . It is The order of the matrices examined (118) is such
possible, however, to render the matrix of Fig . 3a that the application of a trial-and-error method is
block-triangular . not feasible . The permutation of rows and columns
with a view to investigating whether the matrix can
be triangulated seemed likely to lead to mistakes in
1 2 4 3
the final results, hence the combined use of two
1 X X X algorithms (Steward 1962, 1965 ; van der Giessen
1970) . In a combined programme, called AMS
2 x x (analysis of matrix structures), the block-triangular
structure of matrix B was first investigated (Steward
4 x x
1962, 1965) . The relevant algorithm gives the result
3 x x shown in Table 1 .
If each block contains only one equation, the
Fig. 3c
model is obviously triangular (possibly diagonal) .
If a matrix can only be made block-triangular, Van
Block-triangularity means that the matrix shows der Giessen's algorithm will quasi-triangulate each
square blocks along the diagonal and contains zero block, that is to say, it leaves a minimum number
elements above these blocks . The equations of one of variables ('crosses') above the main diagonal ; the
block must be solved simultaneously ; a flow diagram procedure is known to be non-unique (Varii auctores,
indicates in what order the blocks must be tackled . 1966) .

Table 1

A . Block B. Contents of blocks C. Hierarchical relationship

Block 1 Equations :

Block 2 Equations : (depending on Block 1)

Block 3 Equations : (depending on Blocks 1 and 2)

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 A STUDY OF J . W. FORRESTER'S URBAN DYNAMICS MODEL
The output of this double (hierarchical) procedure
will now be described and commented on .
Results
Matrix A has been made triangular without recourse
to computer programme AMS . Permutation of
rows and columns quickly produced the desired
result, there being relatively few relations between
stock variables at points of time t and t-1 .
Matrix B, on the contrary, contains many crosses,
and it became difficult to make it triangular . For
that reason, computer programme AMS' has been
used for matrix B ; it proved possible, by permutation
of rows and columns by means of the combined
Steward-Van der Giessen algorithm, to triangulate
matrix B . The result of the programme, as repro-
duced in Table 1, shows that each block consists of
one equation ; in total there are, therefore, 118
`blocks' .
Both results are in accordance with the dynamo-
technique of the Forrester approach, in which strict
recursive variables are used, as indicated by Fig . 4
(Pugh, 1972, p. 4) .
Fig. 4
t-1 t, t-1 t
The consecutive relation t-1, t can be arbitrary,
for all values x t _ 1 are known ; the `static' relation
t- l or t can only be triangular, as it must be
possible to derive the variables one from the other
without matrix inversion, although this is not true
in the de Biolley-Paelinck model (1970) .
Next it was checked whether the order of the
variables in the triangular matrix B thus obtained
was in accordance with the order of the variables
in the triangular matrix A . This was found not to
be the case . Now it is possible to change the order
of the variables and thus the order of rows and
columns while keeping the matrix triangular . The
final order after triangularisation is, indeed, not
unique . Because matrix A contains relatively few
crosses, it seemed logical to adapt the order of the
rows and columns of matrix A to that of matrix B.
2 The AMS programme was run at the Faculties at Namur (Belgium) with the co-operation of M . Pietquin, to whom the authors
express their thanks .
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171
When matrix A is set up according to the order of
matrix B, A turns out to be no longer triangular.
This may mean that the matrix product B 'A would
not be triangular . Schematically, that result can be
-
sketched as in Fig. 5 .
Fig . 5
B -1 A C
To make matrix A correspondingly triangular, the
order of the variables will have to be changed
drastically . This means that also the order of rows
and columns in matrix B will have to undergo a
matching change . Because matrix B contains many
crosses, it is not probable that matrices A and B
can be made into matching triangular matrices by
simultaneous permutation of rows and columns .
If simultaneous triangulation proved impossible,
that would mean that the model is interdependent .
`A model is interdependent if there does not exist
an ordering of the endogenous variables and an
ordering of the equations such that the I equation
can be considered to describe the determination of
th
th
the value of the i endogenous variable, during
period (t, t-1), as a function of the predetermined
values of the endogenous variables of index less
than i' (Paelinck and Nijkamp, 1975, p . 332) . In
other words, if it is impossible to make matrix C
triangular by simultaneous permutation of rows and
columns of matrices A and B, the urban-dynamics
model is not a pure hierarchic system (pure in the
sense of being statically and dynamically recursive
or sequential) . At best, C will in that case be
block-triangular.
To analyse these structures, a Boolean B -1 matrix
ll being
was calculated from M
n = C I- C1]]1,
nJ
a matrix of order n x n consisting only of elements
1/n, where n is greater than the number of equations
in the model (118) . is, indeed, Frobenius, and
n
Cil
M consists only of non-negative terms, all larger
1 72 L. BEUMER, A. VAN GAMEREN, B . VAN DER HEE AND J . PAELINCK

This means that matrix C2 , which belongs to the

than or equal to the terms of I and (Nikaido,
n original matrix C, can be schematised as in Fig . 7 .
C1]
1970, pp . 118 ff) . Zeroes can then easily be detected .
The Boolean product B -1 A = C is then also easy
to calculate, and C can be analysed by an AMS,
which has been done .
In matrix C there are 76 columns that contain
not a single element . Because the AMS programme
is such that each column should at least contain one
element, or, in other words, that the number of
endogenous variables in the model should be equal
to the number of equations, in each empty column
an element was inserted on the main diagonal . This
addition to the input matrix C has no effect on the
structure of the output matrix C . The inserted
elements were treated as `outputs' of the programme .
By permutation of rows and columns, the AMS Fig. 7 . Corrected output of the AMSprogramme .
programme produced a block-triangular matrix C 1 ,
which was built up of 77 blocks : one 42 x 42 block
Conclusion
and 76 one-equation blocks . This can be expressed
in the formula : What does the structure of matrix C 1 found mean
with respect to the structure of the urban dynamics
x1, t = C1x1, t-1 (11) model?
Schematically C1 can be represented as follows : Let us condense the model into formula

1 x1, t = C2 -X1 t- 1, (12)

Since C 2 contains 76 columns without elements
42 x 42 (see Fig . 7), equation (12) can be rewritten as

= C3
X1, t . x2, t-1 (13)
in which x 1, , = vector 118 x 1
C3 = matrix 118 x 42
x2,t = vector 42 x 1
Matrix C3 determines the model's dynamics for it
transmits the impulses from x2,,_1 to vector x1,,.
We may conclude that the endogenous dynamics are
determined by only 42 out of 118 stock variables ;
these 42 variables are listed in the Appendix .
118
Apparently, then, the endogenous dynamics of
Fig. 6 . Output of the AMSprogramme. an urban area described by the urban dynamics
model with 150 equations, can be described by a
This output-matrix C1 is the result of a matrix C model of 42 equations . The larger part of the
made suitable for the AMS programme . The added equations of the urban dynamics model is not
elements are then eliminated from matrix C 1 . The determinant for urban development and can, there-
elements to be eliminated appear to be the elements fore, be discarded .
of the 76 `1 x 1' blocks . In other words : the diagonal
In fact, the urban dynamics model can be reduced
below the 42 x 42 block is empty, and not only the to a system of 42 equations :
diagonal positions : the columns themselves are
empty . The 76 corresponding columns of input X2, t = C4 . x2, t-1 (14)
matrix C do not, indeed, contain any crosses either . where C 4 is a (42, 42) matrix .

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 A STUDY OF J. W . FORRESTER'S URBAN DYNAMICS MODEL
The Boolean structure of matrix C 4 , the north-west
block in Figs . 6 and 7, is to be found in Fig. 8 .
The 118 variables connected by matrix C can be
divided into so-called level variables and so-called
auxiliary variables .
A level variable describes the situation of a
(sub)system . A level equation, like equation (5),
`is a simple book-keeping statement . Equation (5)
says that the underemployed at the present time, K,
is equal to the underemployed at the previous time
of computation J plus the change that occurred in
the interval DT between successive computations'
(Forrester, 1969, p. 31) .
1 73
The auxiliary variables are no more than inter-
mediary variables . `Very often the clarity and
meaning of an equation for a flow variable', a type
of equation we have eliminated from the system (see
equations 1-3), `can be enhanced by dividing it into
parts that are written as separate auxiliary equations .
These auxiliary equations are merely algebraic sub-
divisions of the rates, so the presence of the auxili-
aries in the model does not contradict the concept
that the structure of a DYNAMO-modelled system
is composed only of levels and rates' (Forrester,
1968, pp. 5-10) .
The 42 variables that are determinant for the

I 42
I AMMP
2 UMMP
3 LMMP ∎∎ ∎ N ~ Iq ∎∎
4 LAMP ∎NOME
5 MAMP ∎ ∎a∎ ∎∎~MEN ∎
6 LAP
7 UTLP
8 L "A - - ~® %~~∎/11~
~~~~/ ~/ ∎∎∎/Z∎ / •∎
9 MP X111 ∎/ ∎ ∎011~// ∎//∎∎∎v∎/∎∎∎/
10 U ~~11∎/1 /ME/ ∎∎∎/ ∎∎∎∎/ ommool∎∎1515∎
11 PH MEMO I
12 PHA ~~∎∎~ ∎N/∎∎
13
14
15 .
WH
WHA
UH
FOR /∎
:N
∎∎111111/∎/ ∎∎//∎I1
1 N∎O
16 NE ∎0 .WINE ∎ / UU ME
17 NEA ∎//∎12111 ∎∎
18 MB X11-1 ∎∎∎∎_
DI =!
~ MOW
19 11W~
20 SHDM WIN ~~ 1__
a_II 1 ∎ ∎∎~•
21 TRN
TRNP
1
= V0=111~' 1 MAMA
h~1~~111 ~I~~~II II~I~IIZ W1 11 ~1=11
22 1M∎∎ /~/0 /∎∎
23 MAM IA_®_N_II _1111111////IZI~_II~~∎IZOZ/IZ 0 ~OZI/11 ~1/IZ 511121
24 MOM X001111
A ~~ ~~ /141
1_F~_II I~∎/∎/11 /111_1 ~~ ~~~~ 11_1.11 _
=1,10 040.904
25 PHCD om pda ' as 00114 V41IZOZ1 i€ ==055∎~=a=1 F^4
26 PHOM ~A~4S1151 III11?L/Z1151~1/11~II~N
/IZN~111 ~1/111011112111/I=14U~141®141∎1~/~1~4~
a
~111/I~IIII/I~IIIIIIIIII/1110~I~ _u11111//1~~11/1111
27 WHCD Ips®~~4~~ _ ~
28 WHOM IU~N_a~ _ III~~MZII~IIWO04IZN~4~0~//IZII_IA/II~~IIZI~11~//IZI/11/111111
29 LMM 1112N*42N5//IIIN21I1/121∎AIMSOWFAM IZI15FAMIIIIIIIIIIIN5111~∎/IZI∎IINCOWAS
30 NPCD ®1/1_N~1/1-II 21∎IZI∎151051~~/IZ4~4.∎IIIII1111Z1/111FOOD= 1-
31 EDM ~15/I211~~/1211 I5 IZ1/I/030024 ZIIZ4Z4~/IIIII111IZ1 •IZ1141IZ45M ∎∎//1.
32 BDM 5∎0002 5=1∎1= 1=1∎Ia=N1~~1=a= =a=∎'1GGF141=1∎0~=11=11= A01 34
33 DIDM 1~ft
-_III∎1-1/1- A~I~II-I/I ∎-1 X11-I~N_a-1∎
34 LR ~N ~N~1~11I •~ ~~' 11
a1t I~N~01 ~1
iC4400 i10i1400010i00~~~~=1 I~NNNN~N WRENS
0404134 ~I~I~aI 1∎1~1∎IMOWER
I/UI
35 UMM OWN?4_4_I~ _II_II_1~1~1~1~1~0_N1~111X4_4 1111∎~N_1541904 1_I/1_I~_N_II_1
35 LLF ~4~a_NZI~O I 0a51~1111~p 11~~ 1~ @ IZIIZII~11_I ~H~N~
1
10 r 1/11∎F1∎AI11I
37 LAM II~4~M~p~N~al1/1FQ30604 All.4151111~~11ZN_/I~N~a~1I51Z1/I~A~N~A~N~ VQ1V0
IVI/I∎I
38 LDM FA
F 001 1.I~11t1/IZNZI/NZII~NZN51A~a~q~INZ111IZ IZ1I~1/III_NN~M~1~~/1/OWNS I~
39 AMM ~~N~110N21121~151115I~IIIo2N2p2N~4~1
~ IN2 ~I~A_'~2M_IIII0N.~1/III~IIIIII
-
40 UDM II~IIa~O~11id1~ga_11~31~IF~~~Oyla~M~4Z11Z1/I.IZAIIII~I~4~IO~~IZOw1/11∎ IZp.IS
41 UW ®r OR M OR VW= Q M FO 15 FM
42 LOR N~FuUZU~~ 4102040 N 1FIND WMA0
Fig. 8. Boolean C2 matrix .

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174 L. BEUMER, A . VAN GAMEREN, B . VAN DER HEE AND J . PAELINCK
endogenous dynamics of the model include all (20)
level variables - numbers 1 to 19 plus number
22 - and 22 auxiliary variables, numbers 20 and 21,
and 23 to 42 of the Appendix .
In total, the model is found to contain 98 auxiliary
variables, only 22 of which occur in matrix C4. In
what respect do these 22 distinguish themselves from
the remaining 76 auxiliary variables?
On closer inspection of the sectoral flow diagrams
it appears that the 22 auxiliary variables in the
block have a direct influence on the level variables,
that is, not via another auxiliary variable. In the
original model they determine the flows directly,
but as the flow variables have been substituted away,
they affect the relevant level directly . Inversely, all
auxiliary variables that have a direct influence on
the levels according to the sectorial flow diagrams,
are included in matrix C 4 .
Direct influence refers to the transition from time
t-1 to time t ; in other words, the endogenous
dynamics is also determined by these 22 auxiliary
variables . The remaining part of the endogenous
dynamics is determined by the level variables
themselves .
The flow diagram of the declining-industry sector
(Fig. 9) may be illustrative .
Fig. 9 . Declining-industry sector (Forrester, 1969, p . 199,
Fig. A .58) .
Of the declining-industry sector, the following
variables occur in matrix C 4 :
(a) level variable DI ;
(b) auxiliary variable DIDM, directly influencing
level DI .
The auxiliary variables DIEM and DILM have
no influence on the endogenous dynamics, for the
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values of variables DIEM and DILM at time t-1
have no influence on the value of variable DI at
time t . In other words : auxiliary variable DIDM
takes the impulse across the time-interval border ;
the value of DIDM at time t -1 determines DI at time t .
The values of the variables DIEM and DILM at
time t affect the value of variable DIDM at the same
time t .
Before going into the internal structure of the
42 x 42 block, we can already say something about
the degree of triangularity of the block . A measure
of triangularity is the ratio between the number of
elements above the main diagonal and the number
of elements below it . For matrix C4 that ratio is 0 .3 .
Variables 1 to 19 and variable 22 in the block of
Fig . 8 are levels . For the analysis to be carried out
now it makes sense to let rows 20 and 22 change
places, and do the same with columns 20 and 22 .
Figure 8 may then be schematised as follows :
AL
LA AA
Fig. 10 . The 42 x 42 independent block .
Block LL (20x20) describes the relations between
the levels ; this block LL turns out to be triangular .
The part of the endogenous dynamics which is caused
by mutual relations between level variables shows a
hierarchical structure . The order of the variables
in block LL is not unique ; it is possible, however,
to indicate the conditions the order has to satisfy .
These conditions are :
1>10 8>9, 10
2>7, 8, 10 11 > 12, 13, 14, 15
3>8, 9, 10 13>14, 15
4>8,9,10 16>17,18,19
5>9 18>19
 A STUDY OF J. W. FORRESTER'S URBAN DYNAMICS MODEL
The variable to the left of the > symbol is higher
up in the hierarchy than the variable(s) to the right
of that sign .
Variables 6 and 22 are not dominated within LL,
nor do they dominate any other variables . Variables
7, 9, 10, 12, 14, 15, 17 and 19 are dominated and do
not dominate others . The most important variables
within LL, that is to say of the levels, are those
(level) variables that dominate others while not being
dominated themselves . Those levels are 1, 2, 3, 4,
5, 11 and 16 . The significance of these numbers and
the explanation of the symbols is to be found in the
Appendix .
It appears that dominance relations are charac-
teristic between the level variables . In a very large
sense, variables 1 to 5 dominate the other ones .
They are, briefly, the attractiveness for migration
perceived, the unemployed mobility perceived, labour
1 75
variables in levels (L) . Actually three levels can be
detected, in order of successive dominance :
L o : Variables 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 11, 16, and 22
L 1 : Variables 7, 8, 12, 13, 17, and 18
L 2 : Variables 9, 10, 14, 15, and 19
This ranking in terms of equivalence levels confirms
the preceding analysis, especially the dominance of
the variables appearing in L o .
Indeed, a last possibility of reducing the system
still exists . In fact the auxiliary variables appearing
in the 42 x 42 matrix could in turn be substituted
away, in the following manner .
Let x be the vector of levels, x* the vector of
auxiliaries . The 42 x 42 system can be written as
I *] t__ [0l1 UA12]" t- 1[x
B21 B22] [x *]t- 1

mobility perceived, labour arrival perceived, managers (15)

arrival perceived . In a sense, these could be con-
sidered the prime moving variables of the system,
though again it should be noted that they are
influenced by their respective auxiliaries (see
Fig. 8) .
The analysis can still be systematised through
application of Demoucron's Method (Kaufman,
1977, pp . 122-123) allowing the classification of the
whence by substitution
x, = (A11 - A12B22 -1 B21)x1-1 (16)
which equation shows the interlevel dynamics . The
A l ; and B 11 matrices are of course t, t - 1 time-variant .
It can easily be shown that A 11 is the 20 x 20
matrix just commented upon, and that B22 -1
corresponds to matrix AA from Fig. 10 . The

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 22
1 x AMMP
2 x UMMP
3 x LMMP
4 x LAMP
5 x MAMP
6 x x LRP
7 x x x UTLP
8 x x x x x L
9 x x x x MP
10 x x x x U
11 x x PH
12 x x PHA
13 x x x WH
14 x x WHA
15 x x x UH
16 x x x x NE
17 x x NEA
18 x x MB
19 x x DI
22 x TRNP

Fig. 11 . The Boolean matrix A11 - A12B22 -1 B21

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 1 76 L . BEUMER, A . VAN GAMEREN, B . VAN DER HEE AND J . PAELINCK

`richness' of A12B22-1B21 will essentially be deter- (Jaumotte and Paelinck, 1969) . The dynamism is
mined by the non-zero elements of A21 , a matrix due to the non-linearities, rather than to the limited
which is nearly empty . The compound transitional non-decomposability of the matrix in (16), possibly
matrix of (16) should reproduce the fundamental both leading to (locally) complex eigenvalues .
relations between level variables . This matrix is
reproduced above .
Variables (8-10) and (16-18) are linked by direct Appendix
ties : male employment and unemployment influence
each other in turn, and so do new and mature Variables of the 42 x 42 independent transition block
business .
No. Variable Definition
The analysis of Boolean matrix All - A12B22 -1 B21
by Demoucron's method produced the following
1 AMMP Attractiveness-for-migration multiplier
levels perceived (dimensionless)
2 UMMP Underemployed-mobility multiplier
L o : 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 22 ; perceived (dimensionless)
L l : 8-10 ; 3 LMMP Labour-mobility perceived (dimension-
less)
L2 : 6, 7, 9, 11, 19 ; LAMP Labour-arrival multiplier perceived
4
L 3 : 12, 13, 16-18 ; (dimensionless)
L4 : 14, 15, 17 . 5 MAMP Manager-arrival multiplier perceived
(dimensionless)
Concretely speaking, this means that the city grows 6 LRP Labour job ratio perceived
autonomously in the attractiveness-mobility variables, (dimensionless)
7 UTLP Underemployed to labour perceived
L o : migration-attractiveness, underemployed mobi- (dimensionless)
lity, labour-mobility, labour-arrival, manager- 8 L Labour (men)
arrival, (all variables perceived) ; they impress their 9 MP Managerial-professional (men)
10 U Underemployed (men)
(autonomous) growth rate on the city . 11 PH Premium housing (housing units)
Male labour and unemployment (variables 8-10, 12 PHA Premium-housing average (housing
level L 1 ) are first influenced by these pushes ; labour- units)
13 WH Worker housing (housing units)
job ratio (perceived), unemployment-labour ratio 14 WHA Worker-housing average (housing
(perceived), management, premium housing, and units)
declining industry build the following dependent 15 UH Underemployed housing (housing
units)
layer (L2), followed by average premium housing, 16 NE New enterprise (productive units)
worker housing, and the new-mature enterprise 17 NEA New-enterprise average (productive
block (L 3 ) . Average worker-housing, underemployed units)
18 MB Mature business (productive units)
housing, and new-enterprise (average) bring up the 19 DI Declining industry (productive units)
rear : (L4) . That means that in urban dynamics, 20 SHDM Slum-housing demolition multiplier
city-growth behaviour depends essentially on an (dimensionless)
21 TRN Tax ratio needed (dimensionless)
attractiveness-cum-mobility base (however defined), 22 TRNP Tax ratio needed perceived
labour and unemployment growth rates being (dimensionless)
induced by it (effective and perceived), they in turn 23 MAM Manager-arrival multiplier
(dimensionless)
inducing growth rates of housing and management, 24 MDM Manager-departure multiplier
new and mature business growth rates resulting in (dimensionless)
the last place : a possible hierarchical city-growth- 25 PHCD Premium-housing construction
desired (housing units/year)
rates scheme but surely not the only one . One 26 PHOM Premium-housing obsolescence
immediately thinks of other possible breakdowns of multiplier (dimensionless)
city defining variables, with their specific dynamic 27 WHCD Worker-housing construction desired
(housing units/year)
interrelations . 28 WHOM Worker-housing-obsolescence multi-
It may be concluded that the dynamic structure of plier (dimensionless)
urban dynamics is relatively simple, not more com- 29 LMM Labour-mobility multiplier
(dimensionless)
plex than that of other dynamic urban models 30 NECD New-enterprise construction desired
constructed from more aggregate relationships (productive units/year)

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 A STUDY OF J . W. FORRESTER'S URBAN DYNAMICS MODEL 177

31 EDM Enterprise-decline multiplier GIESSEN, A. A . VAN DER (1970). Solving non-linear systems
(dimensionless) by computer : a new method . Statistica Neerlandica, Vol .
32 BDM Business-decline multiplier 24, No. 1, pp . 41-50.
(dimensionless) JAUMOTTE, CH ., et PAELINCK, J . (1969) . Un modele de
33 DIDM Declining-industry-demolition simulation dynamique pour une region urbaine, Recherches
multiplier (dimensionless) Economiques de Louvain, No . 5, pp. 371-400.
34 LR Labourjob ratio (dimensionless) KAUFMAN, A. (1977) . Introduction a la theorie des sous-
35 UMM Underemployed-mobility multiplier ensembles flous, Tome I, Elements theoriques de base, 2nd
(dimensionless) edition. Paris : Masson .
36 LLF Labour-layoff fraction (fraction/year) KUENNE, R . E . (1963). The Theory of General Economic
37 LAM Labour-arrival multiplier (dimension- Equilibrium, Princeton : University Press .
less) NIKAIDO, H . (1970) . Introduction to Sets and Mappings in
38 LDM Labour-departure multiplier Modern Economics . Amsterdam : North Holland Publishing
(dimensionless) Company .
39 AMM Attractiveness-for-migration multiplier PAELINCK, J . (1970). Dynamic urban growth models. Papers
(dimensionless) of the Regional Science Association, Vol . XXIV, pp . 25-37 .
40 UDM Underemployed-departure multiplier PAELINCK, J . H . P . (1972) . Modeles urbains dynamiques :
(dimensionless) etude critique. Revue Economique, Vol . XXIII, No. 6, pp.
41 UW Underemployed working (men) 931-951 .
42 LCR Labour-construction ratio PAELINCK, J . H . P ., and NIJKAMP, P . (1975) . Operational
(dimensionless) Theory and Method in Regional Economics . Farnborough :
Saxon House.
PUGH, A . L ., III (1972) . Dynamo II User's Manual, 4th
edition . Cambridge, Massachusetts : The M .I .T . Press .
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DE BIOLLEY, T ., et PAELINCK, J . H . P. (1970) . Un modele analysis of the structure of large systems of equations .
dynamique pour 1'economie beige ; simulation et optimisa- Siam Review, Vol . 4, No . 4, pp . 321-342.
tion, in Optimation et Simulation de Macrodecisions. STEWARD, D . V . (1965). Partitioning and tearing systems of
Namur : Faculte des Sciences Economiques, pp. 221-275 . equations . Siam Journal on Numerical Analysis, Series B,
FORRESTER, J . W . (1968). Principles of Systems . Cambridge, Vol . 2, No . 2, pp . 345-365 .
Massachusetts : Wright-Allen Press Inc . VARII AUCTORES (1966) . Etude Comparee des Tableaux
FORRESTER, J. W . (1969) . Urban Dynamics . Cambridge, d'Entrees et de Sorties des Communautes Europeenes .
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