December 2023

EU and UK sugar
brief statistics update
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As world sugar futures prices collapse to just over 23 ¢/lb and

as the European beet harvest is delayed by wet weather,
will imports into the EU and UK increase?
The H24 (€) London #5 white sugar futures price has
fallen below 600 €/t. But the white premium remains
just under 130 €/t.

Source: Barchart
 Retail and confectionery price inflation remains
relatively high in all regions of the EU
Weighted by sugar consumption in each of the EU “sugar regions”, retail
sugar price inflation for the EU27 has fallen from 54.2% in February to stand
at 17.1% in October 2023 (R1 = 17.8%; R2 = 25.8% and R3 = 12.5%, the latter
perhaps owing to imports of cheaper Ukrainian sugar). Confectionery
products inflation remains high (high cocoa prices?) at 13.9% in October.
Please see https://bit.ly/eupx to keep up to date.

Source: Eurostat
The European Commission reported average EU sugar
prices at 841 €/t in October, but after this week’s
collapse in world markets prices, the gap between EU
and world market prices surely now makes imports
more attractive, especially imports of bulk raw sugar.

Source: Eurostat and Barchart

Imports of raw sugar for refining in the EU + UK have slowed
in Q3 and Q4 2023 - might Q1 2024 show new demand?

Source: Eurostat and ONS

Imports of white sugar in the EU + UK have grown since the
opening of the market to Ukraine, displacing other origins.

Source: Eurostat and ONS

 Imports of DC raw sugar in the EU + UK have increased
modestly (data in for Oct and Nov 2023 may be incomplete).

Source: Eurostat and ONS

 The European Commission admits there is “some risk”
of imports from Ukraine driving down prices and
threatening local production of sugar - Euractiv. Imports
of sugar from Ukraine are also displacing imports from
preferential origins, notably from ACP and LDC origins.

Source: Eurostat
Stocks have been drawn down at a lower rate per month in 2022/23
than in earlier years. They were recorded 508,224 tonnes higher y-o-
y at end September 2023. All other things being equal, stocks would
end 2023 about ¾m tonnes higher y-o-y but harvesting has been
delayed owing to the recent wet weather - so we shall see!
Please see https://bit.ly/sugarstocks to keep up to date.

Source: European Commission DG AGRI

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