Professional Documents
Culture Documents
PTTC G6
PTTC G6
=====000=====
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
ANALYSIS OF THE PERFORMANCE AND VALUATION
OF THE VIETNAM DAIRY PRODUCTS
JOINT STOCK COMPANY
Group: 6
Class: TRIH117(JIB-HK1-2324)K60.1
Cohort: 60
1. Free cash flow and the growth rate of free cash flow ................................ 12
3. Recommendation ....................................................................................... 15
1
• Rising competition from foreign players: Foreign companies, such as Nestlé,
FrieslandCampina, and Abbott, are increasing their presence in the Vietnamese
market, posing a challenge to domestic companies.
2
• Digital marketing and social media: These tools are helping dairy companies to
connect with consumers and promote their products.
Regulatory Changes:
• Government policies: The Vietnamese government has implemented policies to
support the development of the dairy industry, such as subsidies for dairy farmers
and tax breaks for dairy companies.
• Food safety regulations: The government has also implemented strict food safety
regulations to ensure the quality and safety of dairy products.
• Sustainability regulations: The government is increasingly focusing on
sustainability issues, and dairy companies are facing pressure to reduce their
environmental impact.
Global Market Influences:
• Global dairy prices: The price of milk powder and other dairy commodities on the
global market can have a significant impact on the price of dairy products in
Vietnam.
• Trade agreements: Free trade agreements between Vietnam and other countries,
such as the European Union, are increasing the availability of imported dairy
products, which can put pressure on domestic producers.
• Climate change: Climate change is having a negative impact on dairy production
in some parts of the world, which could lead to higher prices for dairy products in
the future.
Overall, these market drivers are creating a favorable environment for the growth
of the Vietnamese dairy industry. Vinamilk, as the leading player in the industry,
is well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, but the company also faces
challenges from foreign players and needs to continue to innovate and adapt to
changing consumer preferences.
2. Firm Overview
Vinamilk's growth is facing a confluence of challenges and uncertainties,
impacting its operations and potentially limiting future expansion.
3
• Declining domestic consumption: Economic difficulties in Vietnam are leading to
price-sensitive consumer behavior, particularly in the popular milk segment. This
is reflected in lower sales volumes, impacting overall revenue generation.
According to Euromonitor International, the liquid milk segment, which accounts
for over 70% of the Vietnamese dairy market, witnessed stagnant growth in 2023,
increasing by a mere 1.2% compared to the previous year. This trend is expected
to continue in the short-term, posing a significant challenge to Vinamilk's core
business segment.
• Increasing competition: Vinamilk faces escalating competitive pressure across
most product lines, particularly in the powdered milk segment, a high-margin
category. Foreign players like Nestlé, FrieslandCampina, and Abbott are
aggressively expanding their market presence, offering consumers diverse product
choices and competitive prices. This intensified competition is forcing Vinamilk
to reassess its pricing strategies and invest heavily in marketing and brand
differentiation to retain its market share.
• Dependence on imported ingredients: Vinamilk's reliance on imported raw milk
powder, a key ingredient for many of its products, exposes the company to
fluctuations in global market prices, impacting profit margins. The recent surge in
global milk powder prices, driven by supply chain disruptions and geopolitical
tensions, has significantly eroded Vinamilk's profitability. This dependence on
imported ingredients creates a vulnerability to external market forces beyond the
company's control.
• Rising input costs: Beyond milk powder, Vinamilk also grapples with increasing
prices for other key ingredients such as sugar and packaging materials.
VNDIRECT reports that the recent surge in global sugar prices, fueled by adverse
weather conditions in India, a major supplier, poses a potential threat to Vinamilk's
gross profit margin. Additionally, rising energy costs associated with production
and transportation further add to the company's financial burdens. Managing these
inflationary pressures while maintaining product affordability is a critical
challenge for Vinamilk's future performance.
4
• Uncertain regulatory landscape: The Vietnamese dairy industry operates within a
complex and evolving regulatory environment. Proposed changes to food safety
regulations, labeling requirements, and environmental protection taxes can impose
additional costs and compliance burdens on Vinamilk. Navigating this dynamic
regulatory landscape and maintaining compliance requires significant resources
and agility from the company.
These challenges and uncertainties create a complex and demanding operating
environment for Vinamilk. Addressing these issues effectively will require
strategic agility, innovative product development, cost optimization measures, and
a focus on sustainable and ethical practices. The success of these initiatives will
determine Vinamilk's ability to overcome these challenges and navigate towards
sustained growth in the years to come.
Since the pandemic Covid 19, consumers have become more conscious of their
health and wellness. Therefore, the sale revenue of Vinamilk has exhibited a
generally positive trend, with an increase of approximately 14.3%. As a giant in
the industry, even though the business market situation is difficult, Vinamilk still
keeps its revenue at a balanced level. Promoting investment in foreign branches as
5
well as participating in milk exports has improved the business efficiency of this
enterprise.
The sale revenue witnessed a steady increase, reaching 59,722,908 million VND
in 2020, followed by a slowdown in 2021. The level-off in 2021 was explained
due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Prices of raw materials, feed,
transportation fees, etc. both rose because of a global supply chain breakdown and
a sharp increase in the demand for goods stockpiled in some major countries.
Specifically, some important milk production materials, such as skimmed milk
powder, recorded 30-40% price increases between 2020 and 2021. In 2022, there
was a notable decrease, and had completed 94% of the annual plan.
Over the span of the five years from 2018 to 2023, Vinamilk's Cost of Goods Sold
(COGS) has exhibited a consistent upward trend of approximately 29.2% over the
five-year period. The geopolitical issue fueled raw material cost rises and
complicated oil and gas price movements, affecting the import and export of raw
materials and products, while soaring inflation and interest rates in the end of the
period created a volatile business environment. That results in the COGs rose faster
than the sale revenue leading to the drop of gross profit in the future.
When comparing with other competitors, the revenue of Nestlé Company Limited
is a 100% foreign-invested company, part of Nestlé S.A group is growing at a
stable rate in the period 2020-2022 with 8.6% compared to 2021 and 12.2%
compared to 2020. Another company is TH True Milk established in 2009, it is a
late-born business, TH True Milk has become one of Vietnam's leading brands.
Despite facing challenges and risks caused by global fluctuations, TH True Milk
6
still achieved impressive growth figures. Specifically, TH True Milk's revenue in
2020 recorded 8,689 billion VND. After 2 years of operation, this company's
revenue in 2022 reached 13,952 billion VND, an increase of 60.6% compared to
2020. When it comes to Vinamilk, currently, it is the leading enterprise in the field
of dairy product production in Vietnam, accounting for more than 55% of the
market share. Although it is the giant with the most market share, this business is
also under a lot of pressure from competitors, especially in the powdered milk
segment. In the period 2020-2022, Vinamilk's revenue remained stable at
approximately 60,000 billion VND.
Net revenue, gross profit and gross profit margin of Vinamilk between 2018 -
2022
Looking back at business results over the past 5 years, we can see that the business
is facing certain barriers in terms of growth. In 2022, net revenue decreased by
about 7% and gross profit decreased by 3% compared to 2018. 2022 is also the
second consecutive year that Vinamilk has decreased profits. The reason for
decreasing is a combination of input material price inflation, rising transportation
costs and exchange rate fluctuations. Along with that, Vinamilk's gross profit
7
margin has also decreased over the years. In 2022, gross profit margin decreased
below 40% for the first time.
However, recently Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company (Vinamilk)
announced its financial report for the second quarter of 2023 with total
consolidated revenue reaching 15,213 billion VND, an increase of 1.7% over the
same period. Of which, domestic net revenue reached 12,789 billion VND, a slight
growth of 2.5% over the same period. Another bright spot in Vinamilk's business
picture is the improvement in profit margin. Gross profit margin in the second
quarter of 2023 reached 40.5%, an increase of 170 basis points compared to the
previous quarter and equivalent to the same period in 2022.
Beside that, last July, Vinamilk changed its brand identity for the new development
stage. Repositioning the brand is just the first step in the company's next 5-year
strategy, accompanied by a series of changes in digital transformation, personnel
recruitment, management processes... with the goal of reaching out to customers.
consumers faster and more efficiently. In addition, VNDirect experts forecast that
VNM's net profit could grow by 6.6% in 2023 and 8.1% in 2024.
→ Show that the rebrand strategy of VNM in 2023 increased brand recognition.
This is expected to contribute to improving revenue and helping the Company
regain market share in the near future.
SG&A
8
Source: Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company and its subsidiaries
Consolidated income statements for 5 years starting from 2018 to 2022 (Group 6’s
compilation)
Over the five-year period, there is a general upward in SG&A, reflecting an overall
growth of approximately 5.5% from 2018 to 2022. The figure of SG&A gradually
increased in the first 2 years of the period, reaching the highest point at 15,406
billion in 2020 then dropping to around 14,144 billion in the final researched year.
In early 2020, the company adjusted the costs to ensure operational efficiency
during the COVID-19 pandemic. By the end of 2020, Vinamilk has stepped up its
last-quarter sales to offset the impact of floods in the Central region. According to
Vinamilk annual report in 2020, the selling expense soared due to Promotion,
product display expenses, support and commission expenses for distributors; while
it is Bank charges resulting in the peak of General & Administrative Expense in
2020. These two expenses in total drives the SG&A peaked in 2020.
EBITDA
Source: Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company and its subsidiaries
Consolidated income statements for 5 years starting from 2018 to 2022,
Markettime (2023), MekongAsean (2023)
9
Over the five years, the EBITDA and Net income increased from 2018 to 2020 and
decreased slightly in 2021. However, they fell sharply in 2022. The reasons for
decreasing are the impact of the Covid-19 epidemic, prices of raw materials,
animal feed, shipping costs... have all increased due to disruptions in the global
supply chain and a sharp increase in the need to store goods in some large countries.
In 2022, net income and EBITDA of Vinamilk decreased because the company
had to face high inflation pressure leading to a significant decrease in consumption
and prices for animal feed rose by 30–40% in 2021 and didn't go down in 2022.
10
Though ROA and ROE have been on the steady decrease since 2018 due to rising
input materials costs but still remained high among industry competitors. Not only
challenged by high raw input material costs, Vinamilk also faces increased
transportation costs due to rising gasoline prices and effects of the Covid-19
pandemic, thus increasing the overall cost of sales which results in a decrease in
profits. Therefore, Vinamilk needs to carefully devise plans such as establishing
long-term materials supply or choosing well-priced suppliers to reduce the COGS.
The dairy industry's growth problem is a difficult one and has yet to find a solution,
causing profits to increase quite slowly.
The current ratio is a liquidity ratio used to measure a firm’s ability to fulfill its
short-term obligations. This ratio is calculated by dividing current assets by current
11
liabilities while the quick ratio divides cash and cash equivalents by current
liabilities. The current ratio includes accounts like inventory and accounts
receivable which may be difficult to quickly liquidate or receive. Regarding VNM,
they exhibit a decent current ratio despite the fact that after increasing from below
to a little above 2, the ratio remained unchanged throughout 3 years. Nonetheless,
this is totally a result of rising input costs which is a common situation for all
domestic dairy businesses.
Even after excluding the less liquid assets (i.e inventory), the company still
exhibits excellent liquidity capability except 2018 and 2019, the two years when
Vinamilk tries to cope with rising SG&A costs.
Though VNM has great current assets to current liabilities ratio. However due to
the insignificant cash ratio, VNM may have to consider selling or making some
asset adjustments to pay off its debt obligations.
Overall, though the analysis of Vinamilk does not present great future growth
prospects, considering the general situation when the country's economy is facing
great difficulties, and the prices of some milk ingredients, animal feed costs and
freight prices are increasing, it can be accepted. In particular, when compared with
some companies in the dairy industry listed on the stock exchange such as Hanoi
Milk and Moc Chau Milk, we can see that all indicators of Vinamilk's business
performance are superior to those of their rivals and other giants of the dairy
industry.
In summary, VNM is a company with very efficient business operations, great
sustainability, high growth potential and stable working capital turnover.
III. Valuation
1. Free cash flow and the growth rate of free cash flow
The formula to calculate free cash flow:
𝐹𝐶𝐹 = [𝐸𝐵𝐼𝑇 × (1 − 𝑇) + 𝐷𝑒𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑎𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑧𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛) − (𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑒𝑥 +
∆𝑁𝑂𝑊𝐶)
We come up with the results for Vinamilk’s free cash flow as below:
12
2022 2021 2020 2019 2018
Depreciation and
2,095,449 2,121,337 2,208,866 1,948,072 1,626,632
amortization
Capital expenditure
2,455,000 -1,531,000 -1,265,000 -2,158,000 -3,186,000
(Capex)
From the five-year free cash flow calculation above, we now can show the growth
rate of free cash flow as the first step to estimate the firm value
Growth rate of the
Period Formula
FCFs
The average growth rate of free cash flows for four periods will be:
(−4.19%) + (−34.41%) + 13.47% + 4.65%
𝐴𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑤𝑡ℎ 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 = = −5.1%
4
From the table above, it can be seen that the growth rate of free cash flows of
Vinamilk company experienced a great decrease of 30.22% from 2018 to 2020
before increasing sharply in the period 2020 - 2021 at 13.47%. However, after that
period, Vinamilk’s growth rate declined to 4.65%. It is clear that Vinamilk had an
13
uneven growth rate in FCF in the last five years and one of the important reasons
is from Covid-19 pandemic’s negative effect. Since the effect of the pandemic is
significant, the average of free cash flows for four periods of the company is
negative, which indicates that the firm is generating less than enough cash to
finance its current investments in fixed assets and working capital. We assume that
Vinamilk will grow at a high rate of 13.47% in the first phase from 2023 to 2025;
then, the growth rate was stable at -5.1% according to the calculated growth rate
above.
Historical Forecast
14
Present 11,319,709 12,844,679 14,575,089 Total =
value million million million 38,739,477,006,623
of FCF VND VND VND VND
101,419,556,699,084
Present value of Terminal value of firm in 2025
VND
140,159,033,705,706
Value of firm
VND
In general, the intrinsic value of the stock can be estimated through the corporate
valuation model approach. Since Vinamilk only raised capital from bank loans
and stock issues, we have calculated the value of the company's shares as
140,159,018,039,561 VND after subtracting the debt. In addition, the intrinsic
value of Vinamilk shares is 67,063 VND, lower than the market price of 70,000
VND at the time of valuation (December, 2023).
3. Recommendation
Vinamilk is the leading dairy company in Vietnam and is moving towards
becoming one of the Top 30 largest dairy companies in the world in terms of
revenue. Vinamilk Dairy Joint Stock Company was first listed on HoSE (Ho Chi
Minh City Stock Exchange) in 2006 with the code VNM, belonging to the
Manufacturing group. In 2022, although there was a sharp decline and many
complicated changes in the stock market price, VNM shares still held the No. 1
position in Vietnam's dairy industry, showing their stability. Operating not only in
Vietnam but also in Southeast Asia and international markets, Vinamilk maintains
a safe and sustainable financial structure.
The company is gradually penetrating larger, more potential markets such as China
and countries with low milk consumption rates and high room for growth like
15
Cambodia, which is expected to ensure a compound annual growth rate of about
10%-12% for overseas revenue from 2022 to 2026. An important factor that makes
a difference and ensures Vinamilk's resilience is the company's ownership of raw
materials, production lines and distribution channels. This autonomy protects
Vinamilk's position in the market, making Vinamilk shares a sought-after choice
in 2023 due to stable demand for dairy products in Vietnam.
Moreover, Vinamilk has just changed its brand identity in July 2023. This was
expected to create a positive signal for Vinamilk's revenue. As a result, for the
second quarter of 2023, Vinamilk’s total revenue increased 1.6% over the same
period and profit after tax increased 5.6% over the same period.
As estimated above, the intrinsic value of the stock is VND 67,063, slightly lower
than its market value of VND 70,000 (value taken as of 11/12/2023). This can tell
us that there is strong demand for VNM shares in the stock market.
In conclusion, the potential of Vinamilk shares is still highly appreciated in 2023
thanks to the current stable demand for dairy products in Vietnam. Therefore, this
is a great opportunity for investors to buy VNM’s shares.
IV. References
• Damodaran, Aswath. “Country Default Spreads and Risk Premiums.” Welcome to
Pages at the Stern School of Business, New York University, 2023,
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/ctryprem.html
• Vũ, X. (2023). Milk market 2023: Businesses are under cost pressure when raw
material prices rise to record highs. [online] Vietdata Research. Available at:
16
https://www.vietdata.vn/post/milk-market-2023-businesses-are-under-cost-
pressure-when-raw-material-prices-rise-to-record-highs.
• Milk - vietnam: Statista market forecast (no date) Statista. Available at:
https://www.statista.com/outlook/cmo/food/dairy-products-eggs/milk/vietnam.
• (2023). Phan tich tinh hinh tai chinh qua bao cao ket qua kinh doanh cua cong ty
CP Sua Viet Nam - Vinamilk 2022. [online] Available at:
https://www.htnc.vn/index.php/vi/news/savefile/GOC-NHIN-CHUYEN-
GIA/Phan-tich-tinh-hinh-tai-chinh-qua-bao-cao-ket-qua-kinh-doanh-cua-cong-ty-
CP-Sua-Viet-Nam-Vinamilk-nam-2022-1341/.
• Vietstock. (2023). Viet Nam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company Overview.
[online]. Available at: https://finance.vietstock.vn/vnm-ctcp-sua-viet-
nam.htm?languageid=2&tab=BCTN
• Trí, D. (2023). Vinamilk kinh doanh ra sao trước khi thay đổi nhận diện thương
hiệu? [online] Báo điện tử Dân Trí. Available at: https://dantri.com.vn/kinh-
doanh/vinamilk-kinh-doanh-ra-sao-truoc-khi-thay-doi-nhan-dien-thuong-hieu-
17
20230707144411762.htm#:~:text=Nguy%C3%AAn%20nh%C3%A2n%20%C4
%91%C6%B0%E1%BB%A3c%20c%E1%BB%99ng%20h%C6%B0%E1%BB
%9Fng.
• Vietnam+ (VietnamPlus) (2021). Vinamilk công bố kết quả kinh doanh quý 4/2020
và cả năm 2020. [online] Vietnam+ (VietnamPlus). Available at:
https://www.vietnamplus.vn/vinamilk-cong-bo-ket-qua-kinh-doanh-quy-42020-
va-ca-nam-2020-post692675.vn.
• Dantri.com.vn (2023) Vinamilk Kinh Doanh Ra sao Trước Khi Thay đổi nhận Diện
Thương Hiệu?, Báo điện tử Dân Trí. Available at: https://dantri.com.vn/kinh-
doanh/vinamilk-kinh-doanh-ra-sao-truoc-khi-thay-doi-nhan-dien-thuong-hieu-
20230707144411762.htm#:~:text=Nguy%C3%AAn%20nh%C3%A2n%20%C4
%91%C6%B0%E1%BB%A3c%20c%E1%BB%99ng%20h%C6%B0%E1%BB
%9Fng,Vinamilk%20trong%20nhi%E1%BB%81u%20n%C4%83m%20qua
• Lạm Phát Tăng Cao, Lợi Nhuận Vinamilk Rơi Xuống mức thấp NHẤT 5 năm
(2022) mekongasean.vn. Available at: https://mekongasean.vn/lam-phat-tang-cao-
loi-nhuan-vinamilk-xuong-muc-thap-nhat-5-nam-post9408.html
18