Sensitivity Analysis 1

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Scenario Summary

Current Values: BEST Most Likely


Changing Cells:
Year1_sales 12000 20000 10000
Sales_growth 5% 30% 10%
Year1_price 750000 1000000 750000
Result Cells:
$I$20 ₹ 17,398,377,354.24 ₹ 73,860,716,836.29 ₹ 15,898,339,645.45
Notes: Current Values column represents values of changing cells at
time Scenario Summary Report was created. Changing cells for each
scenario are highlighted in gray.
Worst

5000
20%
500000

₹ 3,737,524,791.55
Scenario Summary
Current Values: BEST Most Likely
Changing Cells:
Year1_sales 12000 20000 10000
Sales_growth 5% 30% 10%
Year1_price 750000 1000000 750000
Result Cells:
$C$28 12000 20000 10000
$D$28 12600 26000 11000
$E$28 13230 33800 12100
$F$28 13891.5 43940 13310
$G$28 14586.075 57122 14641
$C$29 750000 1000000 750000
$D$29 772500 1030000 772500
$E$29 795675 1060900 795675
$F$29 819545.25 1092727 819545.25
$G$29 844131.6075 1125508.81 844131.6075
$C$30 325000 325000 325000
$D$30 341250 341250 341250
$E$30 358312.5 358312.5 358312.5
$F$30 376228.125 376228.125 376228.125
$G$30 395039.53125 395039.53125 395039.53125
$C$31 9000000000 20000000000 7500000000
$D$31 9733500000 26780000000 8497500000
$E$31 10526780250 35858420000 9627667500
$F$31 11384712840.375 48014424380 10908147277.5
$G$31 12312566936.8656 64291314244.82 12358930865.4075
$C$32 5100000000 13500000000 4250000000
$D$32 5433750000 17907500000 4743750000
$E$32 5786305875 23747457500 5292086250
$F$32 6158339841.9375 31482960567.5 5900550933.75
$G$32 6550490706.08822 41725866140.7575 6575157088.37625
$C$33 4080000000 10800000000 3400000000
$D$33 4347000000 14326000000 3795000000
$E$33 4629044700 18997966000 4233669000
$F$33 4926671873.55 25186368454 4720440747
$G$33 5240392564.87058 33380692912.606 5260125670.701
$I$20 ₹ 17,398,377,354.24 ₹ 73,860,716,836.29 ₹ 15,898,339,645.45
Notes: Current Values column represents values of changing cells at
time Scenario Summary Report was created. Changing cells for each
scenario are highlighted in gray.
Worst

5000
20%
500000

5000
6000
7200
8640
10368
500000
515000
530450
546363.5
562754.405
325000
341250
358312.5
376228.125
395039.53125
2500000000
3090000000
3819240000
4720580640
5834637671.04
875000000
1042500000
1239390000
1469969640
1738867811.04
700000000
834000000
991512000
1175975712
1391094248.832
₹ 3,737,524,791.55
Scenario Summary
Current Values: BEST Most Likely
Changing Cells:
Year1_sales 12000 20000 10000
Sales_growth 5% 30% 10%
Year1_price 750000 1000000 750000
Result Cells:
$C$28 12000 20000 10000
$D$28 12600 26000 11000
$E$28 13230 33800 12100
$F$28 13891.5 43940 13310
$G$28 14586.075 57122 14641
$C$29 750000 1000000 750000
$D$29 772500 1030000 772500
$E$29 795675 1060900 795675
$F$29 819545.25 1092727 819545.25
$G$29 844131.6075 1125508.81 844131.6075
$C$30 325000 325000 325000
$D$30 341250 341250 341250
$E$30 358312.5 358312.5 358312.5
$F$30 376228.125 376228.125 376228.125
$G$30 395039.53125 395039.53125 395039.53125
$C$31 9000000000 20000000000 7500000000
$D$31 9733500000 26780000000 8497500000
$E$31 10526780250 35858420000 9627667500
$F$31 11384712840.375 48014424380 10908147277.5
$G$31 12312566936.8656 64291314244.82 12358930865.4075
$C$32 5100000000 13500000000 4250000000
$D$32 5433750000 17907500000 4743750000
$E$32 5786305875 23747457500 5292086250
$F$32 6158339841.9375 31482960567.5 5900550933.75
$G$32 6550490706.08822 41725866140.7575 6575157088.37625
$C$33 4080000000 10800000000 3400000000
$D$33 4347000000 14326000000 3795000000
$E$33 4629044700 18997966000 4233669000
$F$33 4926671873.55 25186368454 4720440747
$G$33 5240392564.87058 33380692912.606 5260125670.701
$I$20 ₹ 17,398,377,354.24 ₹ 73,860,716,836.29 ₹ 15,898,339,645.45
Notes: Current Values column represents values of changing cells at
time Scenario Summary Report was created. Changing cells for each
scenario are highlighted in gray.
Worst

5000
20%
500000

5000
6000
7200
8640
10368
500000
515000
530450
546363.5
562754.405
325000
341250
358312.5
376228.125
395039.53125
2500000000
3090000000
3819240000
4720580640
5834637671.04
875000000
1042500000
1239390000
1469969640
1738867811.04
700000000
834000000
991512000
1175975712
1391094248.832
₹ 3,737,524,791.55
Based on data from previous sales and annual surveys of their valued customers, Ford India found the values for
best, worst, and most-likely values for the Year 1 sales, annual sales growth, and Year 1 sales price. Is it possible
for me to calculate the profits by changing all the three variables simultaneously?

Parameters

tax rate 20%


Year1 sales 12000 units
Sales growth 5%
Year1 price 750000 Rupees
Year1 cost 325000 Rupees
interest rate 10%
cost growth 5%
price growth 3%

Year 1 Year 2
Sales 12000 12600
Price 750000 772500
Cost 325000 341250
Revenue 9000000000 9733500000
Profit before Tax 5100000000 5433750000
Profit after Tax 4080000000 4347000000
Year 1 Sales
Best 20000
Most Likely 10000
Worst 5000

s, Ford India found the values for


d Year 1 sales price. Is it possible
simultaneously?

₹ 17,398,377,354.24

Year 3 Year 4 Year 5


13230 13891.5 14586.075
795675 819545.25 844131.6075
358312.5 376228.125 395039.53125
10526780250 11384712840.375 12312566936.8656
5786305875 6158339841.9375 6550490706.08822
4629044700 4926671873.55 5240392564.87058
Annual sales growth Year 1 sales price (in lakhs)
20% 10
10% 7.5
2% 5

=NPV(interest_rate,C33:G34)

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