Turkish Journal of Physiotherapy and Rehabilitation; 32(3)

ISSN 2651-4451 | e-ISSN 2651-446X

COVID-19 PANDEMIC’S EFFECT ON INDIA’S GDP – AN INVESTIGATIVE

STUDY WITH INDUSTRIAL SECTOR PERFORMANCE

M. Amthul Thawab1, S. Thowseaf2, I. Suruliraj3 , N. Suresh Babu4

1
Principal and Head, PG & Research Department of Commerce, The Quaide Milleth College for Men,
Chennai – 600 100, Tamil Nadu, India.
2
Assistant Professor, Department of Business Administration, The Quaide Milleth College for Men,
Chennai – 600 100, Tamil Nadu, India.
3
Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, The Quaide Milleth College for Men, Chennai – 600
100, Tamil Nadu, India.
4
Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Presidency College, Chennai – 600 005, Tamil Nadu,
India.
surulirajiyyappan@gmail.com

ABSTRACT

The objective of the present paper is to investigate the significant difference in the contribution made by
various industries to Indian GDP before and during the pandemic period. For the study, analytical research
design was adopted. Herein the data was collected from RBI statistics websites. The period of the study was
6 quarters before the pandemic period and 6 quarters during the pandemic period. From the analysis, it was
understood that Financial, Real Estate, Professional Services, Hotels, Transport, Communication, Services
related to Broadcasting and Manufacturing Industries are contributing a significant amount to the GDP of
India before and during the pandemic period. It was also perceived that all the industrial sectors have
experienced negative growth rates except Electricity, Gas, Water Supply, Other Utility, Financial, Real
Estate, Professional Services, Public Administration, Defence and Other Services. The Electricity, Gas,
Water Supply, Other Utility have indicated 8.41% growth rate compared to pre-pandemic period. Financial,
Real Estate, Professional Services have pointed out 14.24% growth rate and Public Administration, Defence
and Other Services have indicated 6.37%growth rate compared to pre-pandemic period. It was found that
there is no significant difference in the contribution made by different industries to G.D.P. before the
pandemic and during the pandemic. It was evident that there is a significant relationship between G.D.P. and
Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting industries in terms of rupees during
the pre-pandemic time. Also, it was found that Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to
Broadcasting industries significantly influenced the GDP during the pre-pandemic period and its
corresponding equation is given by; G.D.P. = -11660293.084 + 1112006.055 log (X). Further, the analysis
revealed that there is significant relationship between G.D.P. with Manufacturing, Construction, Hotels,
Transport, Communication, Services related to Broadcasting, Public Administration, Defence and Other
Services industries. As a conclude remark, it was found that Manufacturing, Construction, Hotels, Transport,
Communication, Services related to Broadcasting, Public Administration, Defence and Other Services
industries significantly influence the GDP during the pandemic period and its corresponding equation is
given by; ln(G.D.P.) = ln(38185.340) + (ln(1) × X).

Keywords: Indian G.D.P., Indian Industries, Pandemic Period.

I. INTRODUCTION
The COVID 19 is doing havoc on the Indian economy. The corona virus-induced lockdown is reducing the
country's GDP growth because it is causing severe disruption across numerous industries. A fully automated
manufacturing infrastructure will save energy while also lowering production costs and improving quality (Pegu,
G., 2020). The ensuing reduction in human working hours will help us retain better health and will allow
enterprises to continue operating uninterrupted in the event of another crisis. Consumer behaviour is shifting

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away from traditional ways due to increased faith in technology, technical performance, and online payment
sectors (Kumar Das, D., & Patnaik, S., 2020).

This forces us to adapt to new trends, such as working from home and progress toward a future free of brick-and-
mortar offices in general. Due to the introduction of video-conferencing equipment, there will be a long-term
drop in business travel, with High-Net-Worth Individuals preferring to go via private jet rather than first-class air
travel. After uncovering weaknesses in the global system while fighting the corona virus, governments, corporate
leaders, and enterprises will commit more funds for investing in healthcare and healthcare products (Singh, G.,
2020). More tech start-ups with innovative applications will emerge. Central banks have pumped enormous sums
into financial institutions and provided hitherto unheard-of exemptions.

The corona virus outbreak has thrown the entire planet into disarray. The current crisis is a radical departure from
the recessions that witnessed in 2008. This has various effects, such as changing people's mindsets, posing a
challenge to the industry and shaking up the global economic order. Everyone is attempting to quantify this
pandemic. Certainly, people are gradually and permanently adapting to the changes in their lives. Most
businesses have increased their ability to operate remotely and allow their employees to work from home. While
many of these safeguards were already in place, it will be soon become the new normal. Supply chain risks are
serious and will have long-term consequences (Kumar, S., Viral, et. al., 2021). As a result, there must be increase
in capacity to deal with the implications of unanticipated events. Restoring corporate earnings help to recover the
original situation that was destroyed by the risk. The most essential lesson learnt so far is the need for total cost
control in business and living their lives to the minimum (Ashri, D., & Sahoo, B. P., 2020). This study is an
attempt to investigate whether there is a significant difference in the contribution made by various industries to
Indian GDP before and during the pandemic period. Further, the study explores the industries that had a
significant relationship with Indian GDP before and during the pandemic.

II. REVIEW OF LITERATURE

In terms of the number of instances affected, India ranks second among the top 19 countries. With a population of
135.26 crores, India had a firm grip on COVID-19. According to the Ministry of Home and Family Welfare, the
government of India has declared 9796992 infected cases with 142222 deaths until December 11, 2020. In India,
the number of cured patients is also growing. Until December 11, 2020, 9290834 afflicted persons will be cured
and able to return home securely (Rakshit, D., & Paul, A., 2020). Several states, including Maharashtra, Gujarat,
Delhi, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and Telangana, have reported thousands of cases.
In Maharashtra alone, there were 1 68,172 affected people. More than 223919 people were infected in Gujarat
and Delhi (Sidhu, G. S., 2020).

Automobile sales also decreased by 80% globally. China’s export falls to 17.2% in January and February 2020.
Global GDP at this time was also affected from 2.9 to 2.4% (Bhalekar, V., 2020). And it is predicted that in the
year 2020, the global GDP will reduce to zero in the worse case. According to United Nations, foreign direct
investment will reduce from 5 to 15%. The effect of COVID-19 on the internal economy is showing a bad
scenario of the financial crisis (Raghuvanshi, L., & Saha, R., 2021). The tourism and travel sector also falls due
to this virus. Even it is predicted that the global air carrier will get loss between $63 billion and $113 billion.
Every business of the world is suffering and international film making is also included in this crisis and losing
market of $5 billion. This epidemic causes restaurant business, sports, and energy sectors also suffer (S.
Thowseaf, I. Yasar Shariff, 2020).

Objectives of the Study

The study aims at investigating whether there is a significant difference in the contribution made by various
industries to India’s GDP before and during the pandemic period. Further, the study attempts to explore the
industries that have a significant relationship with India’s GDP. Also, to determine the forecasting model using
the industries that have a significant relationship with India’s GDP. Furthermore, the study examines the
important industries that are contributing to India’s GDP before and during the Pandemic period.

Methodology
For the study, analytical research design was adopted. Herein the data was collected from RBI statistics websites.
The period of the study was 6 quarters before the pandemic period and 6 quarters during the pandemic period.

Analysis and Interpretation

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Descriptive statistics were performed on secondary data of Industrial wise contribution to G.D.P.in Crore Rupees
prior pandemic obtained from RBI statistics.

Table No. 1 – Descriptive Statistics - Industrial wise contribution to G.D.P. in Crore Rs. Prior pandemic

Descriptive Statistics
Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation Rank
Pre-Pandemic: Agriculture, Forestry 355283.00 588679.00 490469.3333 88975.70970 4
and Fishing
Pre-Pandemic: Mining & Quarrying 69723.00 109209.00 90152.1667 14413.20989 7
Pre-Pandemic: Manufacturing 532956.00 614400.00 575189.3333 29738.46334 3
Pre-Pandemic: Electricity, Gas, Water 66968.00 76567.00 71910.1667 3835.40326 8
Supply & Other Utility
Pre-Pandemic: Construction 237907.00 273046.00 253563.8333 12590.27046 6
Pre-Pandemic: Hotels, Transport, 565597.00 681786.00 615213.5000 40594.93984 2
Communication and Services Related
to Broadcasting
Pre-Pandemic: Financial, Real Estate 562903.00 816260.00 652317.6667 107795.52380 1
and Professional Services
Pre-Pandemic: Public Administration, 387589.00 437564.00 411642.6667 21284.51427 5
Defence and Other Services

Source: (Secondary data)

During the Pre-Pandemic period,1. Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing have contributed 490469.3333 Crore Rs. on
an average for 6 quarters, 2. Mining & Quarrying have contributed 90152.1667 Crore Rs. on an average for 6
quarters, 3. Manufacturing has contributed 575189.3333 Crore Rs. on an average for 6 quarters, 4. Electricity,
Gas, Water Supply & Other Utility have contributed 71910.1667 Crore Rs. on an average for 6 quarters, 5.
Construction has contributed 253563.8333 Crore Rs. on an average for 6 quarters, 6. Hotels, Transport,
Communication and Services Related to Broadcasting have contributed 615213.5000 Crore Rs. on an average for
6 quarters, 7. Financial, Real Estate and Professional Services have contributed 652317.6667 Crore Rs. on an
average for 6 quarters and 8. Public Administration, Defence and Other Services have contributed 411642.6667
Crore Rs. on an average for 6 quarters.

From the analysis, it can be interpreted that, it was Financial, Real Estate, Professional Services, Hotels,
Transport, Communication, Services related to Broadcasting and Manufacturing industries are contributing a
significant amount to GDP of the India prior pandemic period.

Herein descriptive statistics were performed on secondary data of Industrial wise contribution to GDP. in Crore
Rs. During pandemic obtained from RBI statistics.

Table No. 2 – Descriptive Statistics - Industrial wise contribution to G.D.P. in Crore Rs. During pandemic
Descriptive Statistics
Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation Rank
During-Pandemic: Agriculture, Forestry 367758.00 609883.00 463834.5000 92379.61953 4
and Fishing
During-Pandemic: Mining & Quarrying 62674.00 109285.00 81593.8333 17473.39227 7
During-Pandemic: Manufacturing 351396.00 605738.00 541393.1667 94390.87789 3
During-Pandemic: Electricity, Gas, Water 72817.00 83051.00 77960.1667 4054.68807 8
Supply & Other Utility
During-Pandemic: Construction 130750.00 267000.00 231191.3333 51761.88364 6
During-Pandemic: Hotels, Transport, 334284.00 699751.00 571454.6667 130385.42939 2
Communication and Services
Related to Broadcasting

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During-Pandemic: Financial, Real Estate 619229.00 864974.00 745194.3333 100005.55918 1

and Professional Services
During-Pandemic: Public Administration, 374656.00 481630.00 437883.0000 44101.34540 5
Defence and Other Services

Source: (Secondary data)

During the Pandemic period, 1. Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing have contributed 463834.5000 Crore Rs. on an
average for 6 quarters, 2. Mining & Quarrying have contributed 81593.8333 Crore Rs. on an average for 6
quarters, 3. Manufacturing has contributed 541393.1667 Crore Rs. on an average for 6 quarters, 4. Electricity,
Gas, Water Supply & Other Utility have contributed 77960.1667 Crore Rs. on an average for 6 quarters, 5.
Construction has contributed 231191.3333 Crore Rs. on an average for 6 quarters, 6. Hotels, Transport,
Communication and Services related to Broadcasting have contributed 571454.6667 Crore Rs. on an average for
6 quarters, 7. Financial, Real Estate and Professional Services have contributed 745194.3333 Crore Rs. on an
average for 6 quarters and 8. Public Administration, Defence and Other Services have contributed 437883.0000
Crore Rs. on an average for 6 quarters.

From the analysis, it can be interpreted that, it was Financial, Real Estate, Professional Services, Hotels,
Transport, Communication, Services related to Broadcasting and Manufacturing industries are contributing a
significant amount to GDP of the India prior pandemic period.

Herein analysis was carried to identify industries that had positive and negative growth rates during pandemic
periods.

Table No. 3 – Growth Percentage - Industrial wise contribution to G.D.P. in Crore Rs.
Industry Pre-Pandemic Contribution During-Pandemic Growth
in Crore Rs. Contribution in Percentage
Crore Rs.
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 490469.3333 463834.5000 -5.430478834
Mining & Quarrying 90152.1667 81593.8333 -9.493208705
Manufacturing 575189.3333 541393.1667 -5.875659493
Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & Other Utility 71910.1667 77960.1667 8.413274896
Construction 253563.8333 231191.3333 -8.823222029
Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services 615213.5000 571454.6667 -7.112788216
Related to Broadcasting
Financial, Real Estate and Professional Services 652317.6667 745194.3333 14.23795053
Public Administration, Defence and Other 411642.6667 437883.0000 6.374541674
Services
Source: (Secondary data)
From the growth percentage analysis, it was understood that all the industrial sectors have experienced negative
growth rates except Electricity, Gas, Water Supply, Other Utility, Financial, Real Estate, Professional Services,
Public Administration, Defence and Other Services. The Electricity, Gas, Water Supply, Other Utility have
indicated 8.41% growth rate compared to pre-pandemic period, Financial, Real Estate, Professional Services
have indicated 14.24% growth rate and Public Administration, Defence and Other Services have indicated 6.37%
growth rate compared to pre-pandemic period.

Herein analysis was carried to identify whether there is a significant difference in the contribution made by
different industries to GDP before the pandemic and during the pandemic.
Table No. 4 – Paired Sample Test - Industrial wise contribution to G.D.P. in Crore Rs.
Paired Samples Test
Paired Differences t df Sig.
Mean Std. Deviation Std. Error Mean

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 26634.83333 159428.35185 65086.35210 .409 5 .699

Mining & Quarrying 8558.33333 30442.08525 12427.92926 .689 5 .522

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Manufacturing 33796.16667 91256.21649 37255.19437 .907 5 .406

Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & -6050.00000 7397.35647 3019.95813 -2.003 5 .102
Other Utility
Construction 22372.50000 59244.55164 24186.48693 .925 5 .397
Hotels, Transport, Communication 43758.83333 148254.38279 60524.59833 .723 5 .502
and Services Related to
Broadcasting
Financial, Real Estate and -92876.66667 204983.90649 83684.32940 -1.110 5 .318
Professional Services
Public Administration, Defence and -26240.33333 60282.13043 24610.07669 -1.066 5 .335
Other Services
Total Gross Value Added at Basic 9954.00000 367909.19363 150198.29935 .066 5 .950
Price
Source: (Secondary data)
As the estimated significance value is greater than 0.05, the null hypothesis is accepted. Therefore, there is no
significant difference in the contribution made by different industries to GDP prior pandemic and during the
pandemic.

Herein analysis was carried to identify the industries that have a significant relationship with the GDP of India.

Table No. 5 – Correlation Analysis: Industrial wise contribution to GDP in Crore Rs. During Pre-Pandemic Period
Correlations
Pre-Pandemic: Total Gross Value
Added at Basic Price
Pre-Pandemic: Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Pearson Correlation -.056
Sig. (2-tailed) .916
N 6
Pre-Pandemic: Mining & Quarrying Pearson Correlation .263
Sig. (2-tailed) .615
N 6
Pre-Pandemic: Manufacturing Pearson Correlation .688
Sig. (2-tailed) .131
N 6
Pre-Pandemic: Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & Pearson Correlation .418
Other Utility Sig. (2-tailed) .410
N 6
Pre-Pandemic: Construction Pearson Correlation .792
Sig. (2-tailed) .061
N 6
Pre-Pandemic: Hotels, Transport, Communication Pearson Correlation .831*
and Services Related to Broadcasting Sig. (2-tailed) .041
N 6
Pre-Pandemic: Financial, Real Estate and Pearson Correlation .069
Professional Services Sig. (2-tailed) .896
N 6
Pre-Pandemic: Public Administration, Defence and Pearson Correlation .709
Other Services Sig. (2-tailed) .115
N 6
Source: (Secondary data)
The estimated significance value is greater than 0.05, meaning the null hypothesis is accepted. Therefore there is
no significant relationship between GDP and industrial contributions in terms of Crore Rs. during the pre-
pandemic time.

But for the Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting the estimated significance
value is lesser than 0.05, meaning the null hypothesis was rejected. Therefore there is a significant relationship
between GDP and Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting industries in terms of
Crore Rs. during the pre-pandemic time.

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Herein analysis was carried to identify the forecasting model using the Indian GDP and Hotels, Transport,
Communication and Services Related to Broadcasting industries

Table No. 6 - Regression Analysis – Indian G.D.P. with Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to
Broadcasting industries
Model Summary and Parameter Estimates
Dependent Variable: Pre-Pandemic: Total Gross Value Added at Basic Price
Model Summary Parameter Estimates
R
S
qu
ar
Equation e F df1 df2 Sig. Constant b1 b2 b3
Linear .690 8.913 1 4 .041 2064045.754 1.782
Logarithmic .694 8.986 1 4 .040 -11660293.084 1112006.055
Inverse .693 9.032 1 4 .040 4287818.067 -691118931148.539
Quadratic .691 3.359 2 3 .171 1347897.277 4.082 -1.840E-06
Cubic .691 3.359 2 3 .171 1347897.277 4.082 -1.840E-06 0.000
Compound .687 8.773 1 4 .041 2236866.814 1.000
Power .689 8.874 1 4 .041 29598.670 .350
S .691 8.950 1 4 .040 15.321 -217908.325
Growth .687 8.773 1 4 .041 14.621 5.613E-07
Exponential .687 8.773 1 4 .041 2236866.814 5.613E-07
Logistic .687 8.773 1 4 .041 4.471E-07 1.000
The independent variable is Pre-Pandemic: Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services Related to Broadcasting.
Source: (Secondary data)
The estimated R-square value is high for the Logarithmic regression model (0.694). Implies, the Logarithmic
regression model had 69.4% forecasting accuracy. Further, the ANOVA significance value is less than 0.05, this
indicates the model is fit. Further from the coefficient values, the regression equation is given by;

G.D.P. = -11660293.084 + 1112006.055 log (X)

Herein analysis was carried to identify the industries that have a significant relationship with the GDP of India.

Table No. 7 – Correlation Analysis: Industrial wise contribution to GDP in Crore Rs. During Pandemic
Correlations
During-Pandemic: Total Gross Value
Added at Basic Price
During-Pandemic: Agriculture, Forestry and Pearson Correlation .267
Fishing Sig. (2-tailed) .609
N 6
During-Pandemic: Mining & Quarrying Pearson Correlation .567
Sig. (2-tailed) .241
N 6
During-Pandemic: Manufacturing Pearson Correlation .929**
Sig. (2-tailed) .007
N 6
During-Pandemic: Electricity, Gas, Water Supply Pearson Correlation -.020
& Other Utility Sig. (2-tailed) .971
N 6
During-Pandemic: Construction Pearson Correlation .992**
Sig. (2-tailed) .000
N 6
During-Pandemic: Hotels, Transport, Pearson Correlation .993**
Communication and Services Related to Sig. (2-tailed) .000
Broadcasting N 6
During-Pandemic: Financial, Real Estate and Pearson Correlation -.252
Professional Services Sig. (2-tailed) .630
N 6

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During-Pandemic: Public Administration, Defence Pearson Correlation .847*

and Other Services Sig. (2-tailed) .033
N 6
Source: (Secondary data)
The estimated significance value is greater than 0.05, meaning the null hypothesis is accepted. Therefore there is
no significant relationship between GDP and industrial contributions in terms of Crore Rs. during the pre-
pandemic time.

But for the Manufacturing, Construction, Hotels, Transport, Communication, Services related to Broadcasting,
Public Administration, Defence and Other Services industries the estimated significance value is lesser than 0.05,
meaning the null hypothesis rejected. Therefore there are significant relationships between GDP with
Manufacturing, Construction, Hotels, Transport, Communication, Services related to Broadcasting, Public
Administration, Defence and Other Services industries.

Herein analysis was carried to identify the forecasting model using the Indian G.D.P. with Manufacturing,
Construction, Hotels, Transport, Communication, Services related to Broadcasting, Public Administration,
Defence and Other Services industries.

Table No. 6 - Regression Analysis – India’s GDP with Manufacturing, Construction, Hotels, Transport, Communication,
Services Related to Broadcasting, Public Administration, Defence and Other Services industries
Model Summary and Parameter Estimates
Dependent Variable: During-Pandemic: Total Gross Value Added at Basic Price.
Model Summary Parameter Estimates
R
S
q
u
a
r
Equation e F df1 df2 Sig. Constant b1 b2 b3
Linear .986 287.453 1 4 .000 -722575.336 .411
Logarithmic .979 186.898 1 4 .000 -17433429.600 1203655.666
Inverse .970 130.029 1 4 .000 1692715.105 -3498869158418.020
Quadratic .995 323.224 2 3 .000 974633.810 -.751 1.962E-07
Cubic .996 341.364 2 3 .000 243308.662 0.000 -5.942E-08 2.882E-14
Compound .998 1627.492 1 4 .000 38185.340 1.000
Power .996 1123.158 1 4 .000 3.215E-11 2.500
S .993 601.176 1 4 .000 15.565 -7287877.723
Growth .998 1627.492 1 4 .000 10.550 8.503E-07
Exponential .998 1627.492 1 4 .000 38185.340 8.503E-07
Logistic .998 1627.492 1 4 .000 2.619E-05 1.000
The independent variable is During-Pandemic: Manufacturing, Construction, Hotels, Transport, Communication, Services
Related to Broadcasting, Public Administration, Defence and Other Services
Source: (Secondary data)
The estimated R-square value is high for the Logarithmic regression model (0.998). Meaning, the Logarithmic
regression model had 99.8% forecasting accuracy. Further, the ANOVA significance value is less than 0.05, this
indicates the model is fit. Further from the coefficient values, the regression equation is given by;

ln(G.D.P.) = ln(38185.340) + (ln(1) × X)

III. FINDINGS & CONCLUSION

From the above analysis, it was understood that it was Financial, Real Estate, Professional Services, Hotels,
Transport, Communication, Services related to Broadcasting and Manufacturing Industries are contributing a
significant amount to the GDP of India before and during the pandemic period. It was also perceived that all the
industrial sectors have experienced negative growth rates except Electricity, Gas, Water Supply, Other Utility,
Financial, Real Estate, Professional Services, Public Administration, Defence and Other Services. The
Electricity, Gas, Water Supply, Other Utility have indicated 8.41% growth rate compared to pre-pandemic
period, Financial, Real Estate, Professional Services have indicated 14.24% growth rate and Public

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Administration, Defence and Other Services have indicated 6.37%growth rate compared to pre-pandemic period.
It was found that there is no significant difference in the contribution made by different industries to GDP before
the pandemic and during a pandemic. Further, the analysis resulted that, there is a significant relationship
between GDP and Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting industries in terms of
Crore Rs. during the pre-pandemic time. Also, it was found that Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services
related to Broadcasting industries significantly influence the GDP during the pre-pandemic period and its
corresponding equation is given by; GDP= -11660293.084 + 1112006.055 log (X). Further, the analysis resulted
that, there are significant relationship between GDP with Manufacturing, Construction, Hotels, Transport,
Communication, Services related to Broadcasting, Public Administration, Defence and Other Services industries.
Also, it was found that Manufacturing, Construction, Hotels, Transport, Communication, Services related to
Broadcasting, Public Administration, Defence and Other Services industries significantly influence the GDP
during the pandemic period and its corresponding equation is given byln(𝐺𝐺. 𝐷𝐷. 𝑃𝑃. ) = ln(38185.340) + (𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙(1) ×
𝑋𝑋)

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