Thayer Consultancy

Monthly Report December 2023

Carlyle A. Thayer
Director
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Thayer Consultancy
Australian Business Number
ABN 65 648 097 123

P.O. Box 435

Jamison Centre
Macquarie, A.C.T. 2614
Australia
+61 (02) 6251 1849

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and other
research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially registered as a small
business in Australia in 2002.
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Table of Contents

Thayer Consultancy Background Briefs .............................................................................. 2

Thayer Consultancy Publications ....................................................................................... 2

Consultations .................................................................................................................... 3

Media Interviews .............................................................................................................. 3

Thayer In the Media December 2023 ................................................................................. 3

Media Extracts .................................................................................................................. 4

Future Commitments ........................................................................................................ 9

Thayer Consultancy Background Briefs

[archived at Scribd.com]
1. “Xi Jinping to Visit Vietnam: Scene Setter – 1,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief,
December 6, 2023. https://www.scribd.com/document/691173026/Thayer-Xi-Jinping-to-
Visit-Vietnam-Scene-Setter-1.
2. “Will Vietnam and China Upgrade the Railway Linking Kunming and Hai Phong?” Thayer
Consultancy Background Brief, December 7, 2023.
https://www.scribd.com/document/691173649/Thayer-Will-Vietnam-and-China-
Upgrade-the-Railway-Linking-Kunming-and-Hai-Phong.
3. “Xi Jinping to Visit Vietnam: Scene Setter – 2,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief,
December 9, 2023. https://www.scribd.com/document/691174336/Thayer-Xi-Jinping-to-
Visit-Vietnam-Scene-Setter-2.
4. “Vietnam’s Intervention in Cambodia: 45th Anniversary,” Thayer Consultancy Background
Brief, December 11, 2023. https://www.scribd.com/document/694134948/Thayer-
Vietnam-s-Intervention-in-Cambodia-45th-Anniversary.
5. “Vietnam-China Relations: Making a Virtue Out of Necessity,” Thayer Consultancy
Background Brief, December 17, 2023. Business in Confidence – Not for Public
Distribution.
6. “China-Vietnam Relations: Who Is Atop the Pecking Order?” Thayer Consultancy
Background Brief, December 19, 2023.
https://www.scribd.com/document/694135533/Thayer-China-Vietnam-Relations-Who-
is-Atop-the-Pecking-Order.

Thayer Consultancy Publications

Thayer Consultancy Monthly Report – November 2023 (Canberra: December 4, 2023).
https://www.scribd.com/document/689562935/Thayer-Consultancy-Monthly-Report-
November-2023.
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Consultations
Assessor, Team Presentations, Young Southeast Asia Leaders Initiative (YSEALI) Academy,
Public Policy Seminar, From Geopolitics to Geoeconomics: Southeast Asia in the Whirlwind of
Global Competition, Fulbright University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, November 27-December
2, 2023.
James Borton, South China Sea Newswire, December 5, 2023.

Media Interviews
1. Miriam Webber, The Canberra Times, December 4, 2023.
2. Hong Nhung Phan, Vietnam News Agency, December 5, 2023.
3. Philip Heijmans, Bloomberg News, December 6, 2023.
4. Tung Ngo, Vietnam Correspondent, Channel News Asia, December 6, 2023.
5. Bac Pham, South China Morning Post, December 7, 2023.
6. ĐỖ Minh Quang, Phòng Thời sự Quốc tế - Ban Thời sự, Đài Truyền hình Việt Nam,
December 8, 2023.
7. Nguyễn Thị Đức Hiền, Journalist, Báo Pháp Luật TP.HCM (Ho Chi Minh City Law
Newspaper), December 9, 2023.
8. Lam Manh Toan, Journalist, Division of World News, Quân đội nhân dân. December 11,
2023.
9. Jonathan Emont, The Wall Street Journal, Singapore, December 12, 2023.
10. Francesco Guarascio, Vietnam Bureau Chief, Reuters, December 17, 2023.
11. Maria Siow, Senior Asia Correspondent, South China Morning Post, December 19, 2023.
12. Nguyen Truong Son, Radio Free Asia, Taipei, December 19, 2023.
13. Elakeyaa Selvaraj, Asia Now Program, Channel News Asia TV, Singapore, December 21,
2023.
14. Linh-Dan Nguyen, Journalist, Voice of America, December 27, 2023.
15. Tu Vu Thanh, Vietnam Ness Agency, Sydney Bureau, December 28, 2023.
16. Thuong Le, Broadcast Journalist, BBC News Vietnamese, December 29, 2023.

Thayer In the Media December 2023

Interviews: 16
Trending: China Xi Jinping’s visits Vietnam (8), Vietnam bamboo diplomacy (2), China-
Vietnam clash Paracel Islands January 1974, Australia defence, Global armed conflict, Indo-
Pacific Economic Framework, South China Sea China-Philippines dispute, Vietnam’s
intervention in Cambodia 45th anniversary
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TV interviews: BBC News, Channel News Asia TV (Singapore), Đài Truyền hình Việt Nam, VTV1
(Hanoi)
Media interviews: Bloomberg News, The Canberra Times, Channel News Asia, Radio Free Asia,
Reuters, South China Morning Post (2), Vietnam News Agency, The Wall Street Journal
Vietnamese Media interviews: Báo Pháp Luật TP.HCM, Quân đội nhân dân
Quoted by: Global Security, llawarra Mercury, Radio Free Asia (2), South China Morning Post,
Time Magazine

Media Extracts*
China’s top diplomat visits Vietnam ahead of likely Xi trip
Carl Thayer, a Vietnam analyst and emeritus professor at the Australian Defense Force
Academy in Canberra, said when Xi visits Hanoi he will likely want to discuss the same
issues with Trong that U.S. President Joe Biden raised with the Vietnamese leader during
their September meeting:
“[I]mproving the efficiency and stability of bilateral supply chains, creating better
conditions for Chinese businesses to invest and operate in Vietnam, enhancing cooperation
in e-commerce and the digital economy, increased science and technology joint research,
education and training exchanges, … green development and climate change response,
public health cooperation, protection of water resources along the Lancang-Mekong River,
cross-border tourism and cultural exchanges, and coordination on international issues.”
Mike Firn, Radio Free Asia, November 30, 2023.
https://www.rfa.org/english/news/vietnam/wang-yi-vietnam-11302023233152.htmlv

Address threats and avoid regrets

But when it comes to investing in military capability, there is room for improvement, UNSW
Canberra emeritus professor at the school of humanities and social sciences Carlyle
Thayer said.
The Defence Strategic Review, which Defence Minister Richard Marles responded to in April,
outlined a strong strategic direction for Australia but the Albanese government has not set
out on this path fast enough, he said.
"Developments in the region are moving very, very quickly," he said. "New technologies are
[emerging] quite rapidly - that we can see in the Ukraine conflict itself - and in cutbacks here,
we're finding legacy items, bits and pieces that are in the pipeline or on order won't have a
place.
"So [it was] a wonderful review that sets the strategic context, but where's the money and
where's the action?"…
"To get those combat nuclear submarines going and out at sea, we're looking at a gap into
the future," Thayer said.

*
May include media extracts not included in Thayer Consultancy Monthly Report – November 2023.
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"And where we're falling behind, is that by the time we start doing that, China's going to have
21 nuclear power and armed submarines.
"If you get involved in a conflict, even a short flare up, everything is fired and used up in a
very short period of time, so you have to have weapons stocks. "There's some progress being
made but not sufficient, and not with the urgency that it appears to deserve."
The focus should be on investing in capability across the board, Thayer said.
"What I'm seeing from the critics is that the Albanese government has intentions on paper,
but hasn't got ... the urgency of funding that's required," he said.
"Next year will be, I think, very, very crucial so as soon as parliamentary sitting resumes ... to
get on with it, to really fill those capability gaps."
Miriam Webber and Justine Landis-Hanley, The Canberra Times, December 6, 2023.
Dow Jones Factiva
Reprinted:
llawarra Mercury, December 8, 2023
Dow Jones Factiva

China’s Xi Makes First Visit to Vietnam in Years to Counter U.S. Influence

“They are after positive commitments on that,” said Carl Thayer, emeritus professor at
the University of New South Wales in Australia, referring to the South China Sea. “That’s the
major irritant in bilateral relations and there’s nothing that’s been done to make it better.”
Philip J. Heimans, Bloomberg, December 11, 2023.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-11/xi-makes-first-vietnam-visit-in-six-
years-to-counter-us-clout?leadSource=uverify%20wall.
Reprinted in:
Time Magazine, December 11, 2023.
https://time.com/6358121/xi-jinping-china-vietnam-influence-us/.

Xi Jinping set to woo Vietnam with new rail and rare earth projects in bid to curb rising US
clout
Carl Thayer, an emeritus professor at the University of New South Wales and an expert on
Vietnam, said the South China Sea dispute was the “main irritant” in bilateral relations. China
claims almost the entire South China Sea, including waters otherwise recognised as Vietnam’s
exclusive economic zone.
Maritime confrontations between rival South China Sea claimant nations have sometimes
turned violent. Philippine authorities last week said a Chinese ship rammed a fishing boat in
disputed waters, leaving the Philippine crew adrift. Vietnam has made similar allegations in
the past, accusing China of using its maritime militia to attack Vietnamese fishermen.
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Vietnam has also accused China of using its coast guard to harass offshore drilling
operations[https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3220534/new-stand-
between-vietnamese-and-chinese-ships-reported-south-china-sea] in disputed waters, most
recently in May.
But while Vietnam treats China as its primary strategic security threat, the two governments
continued to work closely together, Thayer said.
“The two sides manage this issue separately from the range of issues involved in their bilateral
relations,” he added…
The railway line alone would be well-received in Beijing, Thayer said. “This is an incremental
step forward and a major move to lean towards China.”…
Bac Pham and Bennett Murray, South China Morning Post, December 11, 2023
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3244526/xi-jinping-set-woo-vietnam-
new-rail-and-rare-earth-projects-bid-curb-rising-us-clout.

In Vietnam, a 'shared destiny' and the US are likely to be high on Xi Jinping's agenda
Carl Thayer, emeritus professor at the University of New South Wales in Australia and a
Southeast Asia specialist, said given perceived Chinese intimidation in the South China Sea in
recent months, Vietnam would welcome more US maritime security assistance.
“Vietnam will continue to steer a middle course in its relations with China and the US and will
not abandon its long-standing defence policy of ‘four noes’,” he said, referring to no alliances,
no foreign military bases, no joining one country against a third country, and no use of force
in international relations.
Shi Jiangtao, South China Morning Post, December 11, 2023
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3244603/vietnam-shared-destiny-
and-us-are-likely-be-high-xi-jinpings-agenda.

Why Everyone Wants to Be Vietnam’s Friend

“China sees the U.S. rivalry, and therefore they have to counter,” said Carlyle Thayer,
emeritus professor at the University of New South Wales, Canberra, and an expert on
Vietnam. “Vietnam tries to get as much as it can from each one.”…
Vietnam's appeal is that it is an independent actor that isn't going to gang up against
anyone, said Thayer. "And if you don't join the party you're going to lose out, it is an
opportunity lost," he said.
Jon Emont, The Wall Street Journal, December 13,2023
https://www.wsj.com/world/why-everyone-wants-to-be-vietnams-friend-d23b6881

Is Beijing warming to South China Sea code of conduct?

Carl Thayer, emeritus professor of politics at the University of New South Wales in Australia,
wrote in 2018 that Malaysia and Singapore had wanted the code’s geographic scope defined
in the draft text.
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Vietnam proposed that it should apply "to all disputed features and overlapping maritime
areas claimed under … UNCLOS”, while Indonesia suggested that "the parties are committed
to respect the exclusive economic zone and continental shelf of the coastal states as provided
for in … UNCLOS,” he wrote…
In his 2018 note, Thayer included leaked details from the single draft negotiating text,
containing a Beijing proposal for the code of conduct to ban joint military drills in the South
China Sea with countries from outside the region without approval.
Thayer also wrote that China proposed a ban on cooperation in the marine economy with
companies from "outside the region”.
Orange Wang and Alyssa Chen, South China Morning Post, December 17, 2023
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3245375/beijing-warming-south-
china-sea-code-conduct

US sees no impact on Vietnam ties from Hanoi-Beijing defence pledge

Carl Thayer, a senior expert in Vietnam security at the Australian Defence Force Academy in
Canberra, said those "aspirational goals" with China were unlikely to affect defence
cooperation with Washington.
Francesco Guarascio, Reuters, December 18, 2023.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-sees-no-impact-vietnam-ties-hanoi-beijing-defence-
pledges-2023-12-18/.

Hoa Kỳ không thấy có tác động gì bởi cam kết quốc phòng Việt- Trung
The United States does not see any impact from Vietnam-China defense commitments
Giáo sư Carl Thayer, chuyên gia về Việt Nam tại Học viện Quốc phòng Australia ở Canberra
[Professor Carl Thayer, an expert on Vietnam at the Australian Defense Force Academy in
Canberra], được Reuters dẫn phát biểu rằng “những mục tiêu mong ước” của Việt Nam với
Trung Quốc chắc không có ảnh hưởng gì đến hợp tác quốc phòng của Việt Nam với Hoa Kỳ.
Radio Free Asia, December 18, 2023
https://www.rfa.org/vietnamese/news/vietnamnews/us-sees-no-impact-on-vietnam-ties-
from-hanoi-beijing-defense-pledges-12182023100156.html.

Chuyên gia lý giải việc Việt Nam tuyên bố “Đài Loan là một phần của Trung Quốc”
Expert explains Vietnam's declaration that "Taiwan is part of China"
Trao đổi với đài RFA, giáo sư Carlyle Thayer, chuyên gia trong lĩnh vực quan hệ quốc tế ở
khu vực Châu á-Thái bình Dương [Professor Carlyle Thayer, an expert in international
relations in the Asia-Pacific region], nhận định rằng Việt Nam không có lựa chọn nào khác
trong trường hợp này:
“Nếu Việt Nam từ bỏ chính sách một Trung Quốc thì sẽ phải hứng chịu sự trả đũa khủng
khiếp từ phía Đại Lục. Tôi cho rằng Việt Nam đã phải làm việc cực chẳng đã đối với toàn bộ
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bản tuyên bố chung. Ngoài ra, còn có cả yếu tố bày biện nhằm lấy lòng Trung Quốc, nói
cách khác thì việc duy trì mối quan hệ tốt đẹp với Trung Quốc là điều cần thiết, bởi vì Việt
Nam có đường biên giới chung với Trung Quốc, có nền kinh tế phụ thuộc lẫn nhau, và cả
tranh chấp trên Biển Đông.
Nếu nhìn vào cách mà Trung Quốc đối xử với Philippines, một dạng sách nhiễu và đe doạ
cấp thấp, đó là điều mà Trung Quốc có thể làm với Việt Nam.” …
Quay trở lại sự phản đối của chính quyền Đài Loan, có thể thấy rõ là nội dung của bản tuyên
bố do Bộ Ngoại giao nước này đưa ra, đã tránh chỉ trích Việt Nam một cách trực tiếp. Do
đó, theo giáo sư Carlyle Thayer thì chính quyền Đài Loan sẽ không có phản ứng tiêu cực
nào đối với Việt Nam. Bởi cả hai bên đều sẽ thiệt hại.
“Đài Loan sẽ không làm gì tổn hại đến Việt Nam bởi họ biết rằng chính họ cũng sẽ thiệt hại.
Họ sẽ không chấm dứt quan hệ kinh tế với Việt Nam chỉ vì họ không thích tuyên bố trên. Cả
hai đều có rất nhiều để mất.”
Trường Sơn, Radio Free Asia, December 19, 2023.
https://www.rfa.org/vietnamese/in_depth/experts-on-vietnam-say-taiwan-part-of-china-
12192023114753.html/.

Vietnam’s fraternal ties with Russia are put to the test

The invasion of Ukraine has put Vietnam “between a rock and a hard place,” said Carl Thayer,
a veteran Vietnam expert from the University of New South Wales in Canberra, Australia.
The Communist Party in 2021 “approved the most ambitious military modernization program
in Vietnam’s history,” according to Thayer, who noted that with $7.4 billion worth of arms
sales during 1995-2021, Russia still tops the list of military providers to Vietnam by a very
large margin.
“The main challenges for the Hanoi leadership at the moment are to avoid U.S. and Western
sanctions for purchasing arms and military technology from Russia and to maintain a high
economic growth,” he said. “Western arms would be much more expensive, less bang for the
buck.” …
“Vietnam is currently giving priority to MRO – maintenance, repair and overhaul - for its aging
Russian legacy weapons and platforms,” Thayer said. “If Vietnam doesn’t act quickly its
capabilities will decline.”
Luna Pham Radio Free Asia, December 21, 2023.
https://www.rfa.org/english/news/vietnam/russia-
12152023100756.html#:~:text=Moscow%20is%20not%20only%20one,cozies%20up%20to%
20the%20West.
Reprinted:
Global Security, December 23, 2023
Dow Jones Factiva
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Vietnam’s partnership with China is ‘window dressing’ as it aims for flexibility in

international relations
"The joint statement is not a commitment to a new alignment with China so much as window
dressing on initiatives that have been under way for several years,” said Carl Thayer, emeritus
professor of politics at the University of New South Wales in Australia.
According to Thayer, Vietnam’s alliance with its powerful neighbour and the statement’s
commitment to building a "community with a shared future that carries strategic significance”
could be seen as "making a virtue out of necessity”.
"Vietnam must maintain manageable good relations with China because of their geographical
proximity and economic interdependence,” he said…
But Thayer said Vietnam has not downgraded such partnerships. Rather, Hanoi has removed
"long-standing rigidities” in its 2003 policy of "cooperation and struggle” that privileged
China, Russia and India over the US, Japan, Australia and South Korea, he added.
Noting Vietnam’s proposed comprehensive strategic partnership with Australia] that is
expected to be effective in March 2024, Thayer argued that the designation suits Hanoi’s
policy of diversification of relations.
Maria Siow, South China Morning Post, December 26, 2023
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3246262/vietnams-partnership-china-
window-dressing-it-aims-flexibility-international-relations.

Future Commitments
“South China Sea 2023,” East Asia Forum Year in Review, January 2024.
“Vietnam’s COVID-19 Corruption Scandals,” Roundtable, Multimedia Review section, Journal
of Vietnamese Studies, January 2024.
“The Roles of the Vietnam Coast Guard, Fisheries Surveillance Force and Maritime Militia in
the Blue Economy,” in Rosalie Arcala Hall and Alex Tan, eds., Beyond Borders: Security,
Economy, and Fisheries in the Maritime Spaces of Southeast Asia, January 2024.
South China Sea: International Law Perspectives, in Rahul Mishra, ed., Navigating
Complexities: Building Regional Trust and Stability in the South China Sea (Kuala Lumpur:
Centre for ASEAN Regionalism, Universiti Malaya and EU Policy and Outreach Partnership,
EU Delegation to ASEAN, 2024).
Asia-Pacific Leadership Network, Asia Dialogue on China-US Relations Workshop Series,
Workshop 3, January 2024 TBC.
“Why Is Vietnam Expanding Its Comprehensive Strategic Partnerships?” Presentation to
Business Lunch, Australia-Vietnam Business Council Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland,
March 13, 2024.
Nordic Conference, sponsored by SEB Bank, Hanoi, mid-March 2024.
“Naval Modernisation, Strategic Rebalancing, and Security in the First Island Chain, 1949-
1996” Presentation to 3rd Workshop on Operation: Security Strategy, Balance of Power, and
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Maritime Diplomacy, sponsored by Rothermere American Institute, University of Oxford,

Singapore, August 2024.
Asia-Pacific Leadership Network, Asia Dialogue on China-US Relations Conference, Jakarta,
Indonesia, Spring (September-December) 2024 TBC.
“Naval Modernisation, Strategic Rebalancing, and Security in the First Island Chain, 1949-
1996,” in John Jenner, ed., Bounding Power in the Island Chains: The Efficacy of Maritime
Diplomacy in Sino-American Relations, 1949-1996 (Rothermere American Institute, Oxford
University 2025).
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THAYER CONSULTANCY PUBLICATIONS

BIBLIOGRAPHIES
Australia-Vietnam Relations, 1973-2023: Papers and Presentations by Carlyle A. Thayer,
Thayer Consultancy Bibliography No 1, June 24, 2023.
South China Sea Code of Conduct, 2018-2023: A Bibliography, Thayer Consultancy
Bibliography No. 2, August 6, 2023.
Vietnam’s Relations with the Russian Federation, Thayer Consultancy Bibliography No. 3,
August 16, 2023.
Vietnam People’s Army, 1976-2023, Thayer Consultancy Bibliography No. 4, October, 2023.

DISCUSSION PAPERS
Rough Waters Ahead for Vietnam-China Relations: A Critical Review, Thayer Consultancy
Discussion Paper No. 1, October 2020.
Vietnam Aligns with China and Plays the United States: A Critique, Thayer Consultancy
Discussion Paper No. 2, March 2023.
Recent Leadership Change in Vietnam: A Critique, Thayer Consultancy Discussion Paper No.
3, March 2023.

READERS
Leadership Change in Vietnam: A Reader, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 1, April 11, 2023.
Vietnam People’s Army, 2016-2020: A Reader, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 2, April 12,
2023.
Vietnam People’s Army, 2021-2023: A Reader, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 3, April 12,
2023.
Vietnam-United States Relations, 2021: A Reader, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 4, April
19, 2023.
Vietnam-United States Relations, 2022: A Reader, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 5, April
20, 2023.
Vietnam-United States Relations, 2023: A Reader, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 6, April
21, 2023.
Vietnam and Australia: Strategic Partners, 2018-2023: A Reader, Thayer Consultancy Reader
No. 7, April 22, 2023.
Revival of the Quad, 2017-2018: A Reader, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 8, May 15, 2023.
The Quad and the Indo-Pacific, 2019-2013: A Reader, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 9, May
15, 2023.
Cambodia, 2021-2023: A Reader, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 10, July 25, 2023.
Vietnam-Russia Relations, 2016-2023: A Reader, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 11, August
20, 2023.
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