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Bbri - 020921
Bbri - 020921
Bbri - 020921
Key Highlights
Stock Data (as of February 8, 2021)
Continuous margin gain, supported by recovery in micro segment and Last Price IDR 4,460
abundant liquidity. 52wk Range IDR 2,170-4,890
Encouraging trend of restructuring loan, but expect a remained elevat- YTD % Change 7.0%
ed CoC, anticipating the deterioration in loan quality amid high LaR. 1 Year Total Return -0.9%
Reiterate BUY, with TP: IDR 5,000, premium valuation may sustain as Share Outstanding 123,345.8 Mn
BRI is refocusing on micro, leading BRI to maintain its premium ROE and
Market Capitalization IDR 544,621 Bn
NIM.
Previous Recommendation BUY/4,900
Continuous margin gain, supporting PPOP growth
BRI posted 11.7% q-q growth in 4Q20 Operating revenue, driven by 18.5% q-
q increase in NII. Quarterly NIM rose by 88bps in q-q basis to 6.68% in 4Q20. Shareholders
Monthly NIM in December stood at 7.29%, continuing an upward trend since
October (Exhibit 2 & 3). The improvement was supported by a slight increase Government of Republic of Indonesia 56.75%
in yield and faster decline in 4Q20 CoF (-70bps q-q). Monthly CoF in Decem-
Public 43.25%
ber came in at 2.45% - a gradual decline since September (3.01%) due to
abundant liquidity and lower deposit rate. Given solid q-q NII growth and
15.9% q-q lower Operating Expenses, PPOP grew 37.2% q-q. In our model,
we expect BRI FY21F NIM at 6.3% (FY20:5.86%), bringing projected PPOP to
grow 12.6% by assuming a 6% y-y loan growth, a 9% y-y growth in Non-NII
and a 7.2% y-y increase in Operating expenses. We expect pressure in asset
yield to be manageable as loan growth will driven by Micro to grow 9.5% y-y,
contributing 40.4% of the estimated total loan.
1
BNIS Short Note
Exhibit 1. Change in our Estimates after incorporating FY20 results into our model
Exhibit 2. NIM Trend in the last twelve months Exhibit 3. CoF Trend in the last twelve months
Analyst:
Posmarito Pakpahan
Posmarito.pakpaham@bnisekuritas.co.id
2
BNIS Short Note
Analyst:
Posmarito Pakpahan
Posmarito.pakpaham@bnisekuritas.co.id
3
BNIS Short Note
DISCLAIMER
This document is not intended to be an offer, or a satisfaction of an offer, to buy or sell relevant securities (i.e. securities mentioned herein or of the same issuer and
options, warrants or rights to or interest in any such securities). The information and opinions contained in this document have been compiled from or arrived at in
good faith from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made by BNI SEKURITAS or any other member of the BNI
Group, including any other member of the BNI Group from whom this document may be received, as to the accuracy or completenes s of the information contained
herein. All opinions and estimates in this report constitute our judgment as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
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