Um Anas, a Syrian refugee in Turkey, has never felt the kind of hostility in Istanbul she does now.

“Unwelcoming looks,” she said, have replaced her neighbors’ formerly warm smiles, and “racist comments have
become louder.”

Um Anas worked as a pharmacist in Damascus before fleeing to Turkey amid the Syrian war in 2014 with her
husband, a Syrian army official who chose not to fight for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. It was hard to cross
the border as bombs rained down, then to learn Turkish, find a job, and make a home. But slowly, the couple
rebuilt their lives. Um Anas now works at a marketing firm while her husband is a teacher. “My kids have a
future here. They are getting [an] excellent education,” she said. “I can’t imagine myself leaving this place and
going back to where there are no adequate services but only chaos.”

In recent months, anti-refugee sentiment has soared across Turkey. Ali al-Ahmad—another Syrian refugee who
fled the Islamic State in Manbij, Syria, for Gaziantep, a Turkish border city, in 2014—said he no longer speaks
Arabic in public (‫)لم يعد يتحدث العربية في األماكن العامة‬: “I have to lower my voice or speak only Turkish, even if I am
with my wife on public transport.”

As Turkey’s election cycle heats up ahead of next June’s general elections,

‫ مع احتدام الدورة االنتخابية في تركيا قبل االنتخابات العامة في حزيران (يونيو) المقبل‬،

the fate of the country’s 3.7 million Syrian refugees hangs in the balance.

‫ مليون الجئ سوري في البالد على المحك‬3.7 ‫مصير‬

Turks blame the country’s worsening economic crisis on the refugees,

‫وينحي األتراك الالجئين بالالئمة في األزمة االقتصادية المتفاقمة في البالد‬

and politicians are capitalizing on growing anti-refugee sentiment.

.‫والسياسيون يستفيدون من المشاعر المعادية لالجئين المتزايدة‬

Kemal Kilicdaroglu, leader of the main opposition Republican People’s Party, has promised to send Syrians back
within two years if he assumes office ‫يتولى منصبه‬. Now, members of both the opposition and the ruling party
‫ الحزب الحاكم‬are calling for the refugees’ return even though Assad’s dictatorship remains in power and there is no
end in sight to Syria’s war.

In particular, last month, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that he intends ‫ ينوي‬to resettle 1
million Syrians in “safe zones” near the Turkish border in northern Syria. The project, he said, “will cover all
needs of daily life, from housing to schools and hospitals,

as well as a self-sufficient economic infrastructure

‫فضال عن بنية تحتية اقتصادية مكتفية ذاتيا‬

, from agriculture to industry.” Turkey has long proposed a “safe zone” on the Syrian side of the 559-mile
Syrian-Turkish border that would be inhabited by Syrians fleeing the conflict. Currently, this zone is not
contiguous ‫ متجاورة‬but comprises‫ تشمل‬several areas that Ankara has helped Syrian rebels take since 2016. It
includes the Syrian cities of Tal Abyad, Jarablus, and Afrin as well as Idlib, which is mostly under the control of
Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham but remains under Turkey’s military protection.

Ankara has yet to unveil ‫ كشف‬a plan for what it calls the “voluntary return” of such a large number of people,
but Turkish media reported that the government intends to implement ‫ ينفذ‬an eight-phase process that includes
coordinating with civil society organizations,

offering vocational courses ‫تقديم دورات مهنية‬

, and establishing commercial areas.

“It will be a vast‫ ضخمًا‬project,” said Ryan Bohl, a Middle East and North Africa analyst at the RANE Network,
adding that “though it will benefit Turkey’s construction companies,

a key part of Erdogan’s political base ‫جزء أساسي من قاعدة أردوغان السياسية‬

, … it will take time before it can safely house that large number of refugees.”

‫" سيستغرق األمر وقًتا قبل أن يتمكن من إيواء هذا العدد الكبير من الالجئين بأمان‬.

Analysts say the Turkish president’s priority is not to return refugees as much as it is to claim Syrian land from
Kurds while also shoring up domestic support for his reelection.

‫ويقول محللون إن أولوية الرئيس التركي ليست إعادة الالجئين بقدر ما هي المطالبة بأرض سورية من األكراد مع تعزيز الدعم المحلي إلعادة‬
.‫انتخابه‬

Ankara has long been accused ‫ لطالما اتهمت أنقرة‬by analysts and Kurds of using “safe zones” to change the
demographics along the Syrian-Turkish border. “Erdogan is interested in diluting ‫ تمييع‬the Kurdish population
of northern Syria by settling non-Kurdish Syrians along the southern border with Turkey,” Sinan Ciddi, an
expert on Turkish politics and a professor at the Marine Corps University, told Foreign Policy.

The establishment of “safe zones” is likely to be bloody. Currently,

the areas Ankara has identified are far from safe. ‫فإن المناطق التي حددتها أنقرة بعيدة عن أن تكون آمنة‬

Despite ‫ بالرغم‬a cease-fire in March between Turkey and Assad’s ally Russia, bombings in areas held by
Ankara-backed rebels in the northwestern province of Idlib have continued. There have also been sporadic ‫متقطع‬
clashes between Turkish forces and Kurdish fighters of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
in territories recently taken over by Ankara-backed Arab Syrian rebels. Turkey says the SDF has been firing
rockets and mortars into towns. It claims the SDF—Washington’s ally against the Islamic State—is synonymous
with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), the guerrilla organization that has fought the Turkish army for
decades.

Over the past few weeks, Erdogan has announced that Ankara will expand its operations in northern Syria,
launching an attack to push the SDF from the Syrian towns of Manbij and Tel Rifat to expand the safe zone.
“We are going into a new phase of our determination to form a 30-kilometer [20-mile] deep safe zone along our
southern border,” Erdogan said.

Aside from general destabilization in the region ‫بصرف النظر عن عدم االستقرار العام في المنطقة‬

areas under the control of Turkish-backed rebels tend to be less stable—due to infighting—than those under SDF
control.

“I am afraid the chaos of the areas held by Turkey-backed groups will end up being copied in [what are
currently] SDF held-areas,”

‫أخشى أن ينتهي المطاف بفوضى المناطق التي تسيطر عليها الجماعات المدعومة من تركيا في [ما هي حالًيا] مناطق سيطرة قوات سوريا‬
.‫الديمقراطية‬

said al-Ahmad, one of the Syrian refugees.

This destabilization was evident after the Syrian National Army

‫تجلت حالة عدم االستقرار هذه بعد الجيش الوطني السوري‬

a conglomeration of various groups backed by Turkey ‫تكتل من مختلف الجماعات المدعومة من تركيا‬

seized control of one of the proposed safe zones between the Syrian towns of Tal Abyad and Ras al-Ain in an
Ankara-led offensive in 2019.

.2019 ‫سيطرت على إحدى المناطق اآلمنة المقترحة بين بلدتي تل أبيض ورأس العين السوريتين في هجوم بقيادة أنقرة في عام‬

The groups also control the area between the cities of Afrin, Azaz, al-Bab, and Jarablus. In addition, the hard-
line Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which controls the rebel enclave ‫ جيب‬of Idlib, has grown closer to the
Turkish government.

Many of these groups aligned ‫ محاذاة‬with the Turkish government have been accused by human rights groups of
torture‫ تعذيب‬, kidnappings, and the extortion ‫ابتزاز‬of civilians as well as looting ‫ نهب‬and seizing‫ االستيالء‬the
property of Kurds who have fled Turkey’s offensives‫ الهجمات‬.

According to the United Nations, more than 100,000 people, mostly Kurds, were displaced from the town of
Afrin alone during the Turkish operation in 2018. Most went east to Tel Rifat, the SDF-controlled town Erdogan
now threatens‫ يهدد‬to take. According to Rami Abdulrahman, head of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights,
a Britain-based war monitor,

the proposed Turkish operation could trigger more displacements.

.‫يمكن أن تؤدي العملية التركية المقترحة إلى المزيد من عمليات النزوح‬

Ahmad Berro, a Kurdish activist from Qamishli, Syria,

doubts Turkey’s claims to want to help Syrian refugees by resettling them.

‫يشكك في مزاعم تركيا بأنها تريد مساعدة الالجئين السوريين من خالل إعادة توطينهم‬

If it does carry out attacks on Manbij and Tel Rifat, Berro said, then “nearly half a million [more] Syrians will be
displaced.” Many would be forced to find shelter in areas held by the Syrian government, which Berro said is the
last place they wish to return.

Washington has already expressed concern about Erdogan’s plans, with U.S. Secretary of State Antony
Blinken stating any such attack would “undermine regional stability ‫ ” تقويض االستقرار اإلقليمي‬and weaken the
fight against the Islamic State. He added that the United States would oppose ‫ يعارض‬any such offensive against
its Kurdish allies. But at a time when Russia’s war in Ukraine takes precedence for the United States and the
European Union,

there is not likely to be much more international pushback.

‫ليس من المرجح أن يكون هناك الكثير من المعارضة الدولية‬

Russia’s war has changed the calculus of geopolitics, and especially as Turkey continues to threaten Sweden
and Finland’s NATO accession, criticism ‫انتقاد‬of Turkey’s intention to invade Manbij and Tel Rifat is expected
to be mild.

For now, Erdogan’s resettlement plan remains technically voluntary

‫ ال تزال خطة أردوغان إلعادة التوطين طوعية من الناحية الفنية‬، ‫في الوقت الحالي‬

but since the vast majority of Turkey’s Syrian refugees will not want to return to Syria anytime in the near
future, Ciddi said Turkish authorities will likely forcibly resettle others.
 ‫ قال سيدي إن‬، ‫لكن بما أن الغالبية العظمى من الالجئين السوريين في تركيا لن يرغبوا في العودة إلى سوريا في أي وقت في المستقبل القريب‬
.‫السلطات التركية من المرجح أن تعيد توطين آخرين قسرًا‬

Many Syrians hope the plan will never see the light of the day and will fade from public consciousness as the
election passes.

‫يأمل الكثير من السوريين أن الخطة لن ترى النور أبًدا وأن تتالشى من الوعي العام مع مرور االنتخابات‬

Um Anas, for one, is determined to stay. “I will never go back to Syria the way Turkey has been suggesting,”
she said.

“In Syria, there is not even one safe place as long as Assad is in power.”

. "‫ ال يوجد مكان آمن واحد طالما األسد في السلطة‬، ‫في سوريا‬."

conglomeration con‧glom‧e‧ra‧tion /kənˌɡlɒməˈreɪʃən / ‫تكتل‬

hostility hos‧til‧i‧ty /hɒˈstɪləti / ‫العداء‬

soar /sɔː / to increase quickly to a high level

Sentiment sen‧ti‧ment /ˈsentəmənt/ ‫مشاعر رأي‬